00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to episode number 38 of circles off. I'm Rob Pizzola, joined by Johnny from BetStamp. 

00:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What's up, everyone what's going on with you Debuting the new sports memorabilia here for those uh, on audio you can't see it, but so I actually haven't seen it yet. Edmonton oilers nhl franchise. Connor mcdavid, the legend, greatest player in the league right now, arguably signed mini helmet we're recording on the COVID list. As of today. 

00:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Go Leafs, go Rush to market to bet against Edmonton today. 

00:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, this one is one of the few players. I mean I won't say few players in the NHL, but just less so than NBA. That'll definitely move the line quite a bit. What would you make him? Percentage overall. 

01:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh well, on the team he's playing now. I can't remember what the swing was today, but it was like maybe 5%, something like that. 

01:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Five, but was that including the fact that he got COVID yesterday? Was it already implied out, or is it today's market movement? 

01:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think he was considered doubtful and then confirmed out. Like the NHL rules are ridiculous, but like I'm pretty sure you need two negative tests. So I don't know why the market would have only considered him doubtful today, like I don't think he had a chance to play. But anyways, that's part of sports betting now is understanding how the covid lists work and who can come off it. What what it takes. 

01:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean it's kind of a disaster okay, give me roughly then with a neutral ice surface or sorry, in in home game for toronto but no fans. With toronto's lineup right now, as is versus with mcdavid in, what would the line be. 

01:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then we know right as of right now, it's like minus 280 for toronto yeah, I have like close to 75 implied for the for the leafs at home, so just a little bit higher than market in this current in this current, yeah right, so what would it be without? With mcdavid in uh, going back, probably we're looking at something like minus 200 okay fair enough, so it's not moving it. A ton a ton it's it's the biggest uh skill position player in hockey that's gonna move a line yeah, makes sense. 

02:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, yeah, we got, we're debuting the mcdavid mini helmet. We're gonna try to showcase, uh, some different sports memorabilia every single week. Uh, we do the podcast. Obviously, you know, football helmets are cool, hockey helmets not as popular. The mini helmets are awesome, though you know you could stack them up, collect all the teams and then mcdavid is just obviously one of the top players in the league, so it's a nice, nice piece to have. Um, anyways, today's show, what? 

02:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
else is up this week. I mean not honestly, not a whole lot. I'm uh, I'm kind of just done with the covid landscape. Even though it's not going to be done, it's causing so much more work and, honestly, you should, as a sports, better. If I wasn't beat down, this is the kind of stuff I would live for because because, like, obviously, like whenever you have stuff like this where there's large uncertainty, players coming in and out of the lineups that's probably when you have your biggest edge. 

03:11
If you're monitoring stuff right, like regular nhl day, not a lot happening, you play your bets in the morning, there's not a lot going on, whatever. But now you have like so many different periods in the day where news can work in your favor or against you. You just constantly be available. So it's pretty. I'm pretty beat down following nfl and nhl, like two sports that I bet um seriously at the same time. It's just like I enjoyed the christmas break when the league nhl shut down for a week, a couple days. I was really looking forward to potential olympic break where I was like, okay, two weeks off of this sport, football will be done because it's right after the super bowl, take a couple weeks relax. But because of the delays now they'll probably be rescheduling games, nhl not going to olympics. So that's really the state that I'm in right now. 

04:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's honestly, it's tough. I think the Olympic break would have been fun, definitely for sure. It sucks that that got canceled. I mean, olympic hockey with the NHL players is awesome. Without it it's not, it's not as much. 

04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll say this as we talked about this a couple of weeks ago when the news was first breaking about the NHL. Obviously, me and Johnny are Toronto based. We're in Canada. I feel like this is the last time. If the Olympics were held this year with NHL players, I feel like it's the last time that Canada would be favored over the US. I feel like in 2026, the US Olympic team will be the favorites for gold and going forward. That's just going to be the case. You might be right, but and going forwards. 

04:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's just going to be the case. You might be right, but with that being said, like those games are such crapshoots they're like what would you, what would you really make them? 

04:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, and they're one and dones it's not like. 

04:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're playing a best of seven series or anything like that. 

04:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. I mean it's complete crapshoot, but I'm looking at the talent that the US has produced in the relative to other countries, especially Canada, and they're just producing way more high-end players. 

05:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, you might be right, Like it's obviously more popular, hockey's more popular in the States now, and then when you, you know I guess, compare sheer size of countries, they're going to have more talent. But I will say it's kind of bananas that Canada was so favored for so long in Olympic hockey, as well as like World juniors and stuff like that. Because it's like I said, it's one team and it's all. It's a one game elimination tournament, so a regular olympic hockey. It's not like you're playing a team of like nhl players versus like minor leaguers, like the entire swedish team is nhl players, the entire, you know, finnish team, czech team, russia is usually not, because they have some khl players that are nhl caliber, like everyone's nhl caliber in the olympics. On the major countries. So, and then obviously usa superior, like in a few areas for sure, mainly like goaltending. Now, yeah, for sure anyways. 

05:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, two topics for today's episode which we'll get into, and then we're going to debut a new segment at the end, which we teased last week. Tweets that trigger us will be interesting. I think I selected the majority of the tweets this week because I'm more triggerable than you are, but it'll be interesting at the end to turn that into some sort of educational piece. But first topic this week we're going to talk about NFL live betting, betting strategies and the reason why is I hosted a twitter spaces on our bet stamp account on sunday night. Um, I actually don't do a whole ton of nfl live betting. Part of the reason why is because I'm usually watching on a delayed stream because I don't actually have cable. I pay for streaming service, so I'm behind real time. It makes it very difficult to live bet with that said guys, hold up. 

06:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know how we did a segment identifying fraud bettors. Not paying for the fastest possible stream of cable, that's got a that's. That's actually on the list now. I'm not saying rob's a fraud, better in any capacity, but you got to pay for the fastest stream for, like, you know what I mean. You can't be watching a delayed feed sweating games on uh on the zone, no effect like shout out the zone. You know a great service the zone is the only. 

07:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The zone is the only uh rights holder in canada for nfl red zone. So that's the challenge I can't watch. You're different than me. Your sunday experience is you put up all the games that you're interested in and you watch those. I don't. I watch red zone on sundays. Yeah, that's also delayed. Yeah, I know, I'm aware there's lots of times where I tweet about stuff and I'll get some sort of comment of like oh great, like thanks for telling me after the fact, type of thing. Oh, you're genius, I'm not. I mean, I've seen what I conceive to be real time. It doesn't bother me, though it bothers, bothers me for live betting. Obviously that's a struggle, but and it always it hasn't always been like this. I have no reason to get cable anymore other than sports. 

07:53
Yeah, it's a disaster Like my, my yeah, no one does. 

07:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean like I'm. I'm obviously like a couple of years younger than you and I don't't I've never actually cared about cable, like obviously, when I was a kid had cable watching like cartoons and stuff like that and like watching, you know, tv shows, but I don't watch anything on tv except for sports. But I'll still pay for cable because I, like you know I mean turn on the leaf game, like I don't want to have to go through the hassle of even like these people are not even gonna like you if you're from the us sports net now, sportsnet Go, tsn Go you obviously don't know what those are, but they're just like the streaming services for the ESPN equivalents. 

08:30
Yeah, I don't want to have to connect my computer, I don't have to log into a portal on TV, and then the game's like two minutes delayed. It's like once you also. 

08:38
It's about 20 to 30 seconds, okay, but once you bet on sports and you're following multiple games for NFL, if you're watching on a delayed stream of any capacity, even if it's 30 seconds to a minute delayed, now it prohibits me from checking the second screen experience of Twitter or checking the other scores, cause I'm going to ruin something. So, yes, obviously I have to have other box scores open for checking everything, not just that. And what I do is we've got, um, you know, three screens here at right now at this time, but normally sometimes it'll be like up to five. But when we've got three to five screens, we'll be basically managing the remotes and getting the game that's has the most action on the tv. So I'm checking the scores of the games to say, okay, since an eye's in the red zone, put that on volume, put that on right screen, then we get that on left screen. You just have people manning the remotes here. 

09:30
That's the play. If you're gonna actually like just watch on a delayed stream, then as soon as you check the scores you're gonna be like, oh, derrick henry got a touchdown. Uh, colts are in the red zone, and then you're gonna change it to red zone. You can see on your phone that pitman just drove, putting it punching a touchdown, and then you're going to like see another play, like, ah, this is the pitman touchdown. You don't get to watch anything live. 

09:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like yes, but you play fantasy sports, I don't, and even when I play daily fantasy, I don't check score. I don't check scores or fantasy in real time. Like my phone is not with me other than Twitter being open, and I actually don't. I don't want to say that I like it when the game's ruined for me, but I don't mind it. Like when I see everybody going crazy on Twitter and I know something crazy is about to happen. It's like a level of adrenaline that I get that's hard to describe. I don't know. It's really weird, but none of that stuff bothers me Definitely. There's a lot of people that that's going to be completely bothersome. Like I don't want to ruin the game or whatever, but I just did Twitter spaces with Frank Brank and Austin Mock and their US regular cable feeds were like on the same level as the one that I was watching on delay anyway. So who knows? I don't even like who's really watching in real time anymore. 

10:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All I I don't even like who's really watching in real time anymore. All I'm saying is I will like for the amount of money that it costs, which is, again, it's, it's. It's a decent amount, but it's not like crazy that we can't afford cable. Like I'm gonna pay for the fastest service that I can that enables me to watch the most games because I like sports so much not that I waste money on everything that's convenient, but for me this is like a non-negotiable thing. Like I will, fair enough if, if cable went away and there was a faster thing that I could just buy sports, then I would 100 purchase that and not I don't watch the news, I don't watch tv show, like so you value. 

11:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You value the speed, I value the functionality, and the reason I moved off of cable was because there's a pardon, I was going to swear here. I don't care, it doesn't matter if we start, but it's a disaster basically for me. Like if I have to, if I turn on a game and I can't get the channel that I had a week ago, and then call customer service for a company and they tell me you know, you're on the wrong channel. I'm like, no, no, I'm on the right channel. They're like no, no, no Change to this channel. I'm like this is NFL network. Like I'm looking for NFL red zone. I watched it last week on this channel. Now it says it's not available. It's on my package Cause I checked. They're like, sir, you're on the wrong channel. I'm like listen, man, I'm a huge NFL fan. I know the difference between red zone and NFL network. This is not the live games. That was the breaking point for me. So that's why I'm done with cable. Now I just can. 

12:15
I was very mad, but yes, okay, nfl live betting strategy, even though I don't do a ton of live. Okay, step one purchase a cable package. Speed is important. That is going to be one of the things that we talk about, for sure speed. 

12:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speed is important. Rob could essentially only bet on the commercial breaks now, yes, and no not that I can't like okay, let's, let's get into it. 

12:38
Let's start. It is a great combo and I love the the whole like free rolling aspect and betting in game and because, cause like at the end of the day, like the TV stream you watch, no matter when you watch it, even if it's on cable, it's still like five seconds delayed, right. So you still actually do get free rolled by the book in some cases if they're spinning wheeling you. But we'll go, let's get into exactly what you want to talk about here. 

13:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so general NFL live betting strategy is not the exact same of if you were betting NFL pregame, because the dynamics of live betting are very different. You typically don't have a long period of time in order to be able to get in your bet, whereas if you're betting pregame a lot of times you have. Sometimes you're acting instantaneously, but oftentimes you can take your time find the best line. You still have to find the best line. That's where I wanted to start with this. 

13:30
Line shopping is important. You're doing yourself a massive disservice if you are still live betting on one book and getting one number Three, four, five. The more books you have, the easier it is going to be in the long run to profit, regardless when you have different lines available to you. Now I will say you probably want to stick to something like three or four books for live betting, because it can be overwhelming as well. You do not have the ability to go and type in all these lines on some sort of tool that spits out the best available line to you, because by the time you do that, the number is gone. Yeah, time is of the essence. So there are some things that apply from the pre-game nfl betting that you have to transfer over, but you have to do it within reason. So similar concepts, but definitely price sensitivity, regardless of when you're betting or what you're betting on, is just a integral factor in betting regardless yeah, and in live betting markets, price like the prices are even more quote-unquote all over the place than in the traditional pre-game markets. 

14:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, like they're, they're just moving way faster and because of that, significantly more differences, right, so you might. You might find like one team at like plus 350. You just check another site, it's like plus 590. Like it's not uncommon to see that in the live betting scenario, whereas in the pregame betting market those things will typically get picked off right away and it won't be available. 

15:02
So live betting definitely line shopping number one thing, um, but, as rob mentioned, like you don't have time to open up like 12 tabs there's, there is, and I will say this right now, like there is no. We're we're working on potentially trying to build something, but there is no good. Uh, live odds comparison tool. Like anyone that's claiming to sell an odds comparison tool for live betting is just complete. It's complete bull, because the speed at which you need to bet, like they're not pulling those lines in as much half of the time when you're talking about live betting, the sports book will be like have a grayed out number, which what that means and at least that's what I call it and refer to it in in our circle, as as when something's grayed out, that means it's not actually bettable so it'll show off the board it's, it's off the board. 

15:46 - Social Media Clip 1 (Sharky Waters) (Other)
It's on the board, but that's what I'm saying. 

15:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's why I call it grayed out, because that's what a couple of the books do they? They gray out the number, meaning they'll show you that the line is kansas city minus six and a half minus 115, but it's it's not available to bet. So when you have odds comparison tools, pull things in like that, it just like the book is not confident in that number. They haven't actually opened it up, they're not willing to write any action on that, meaning it's not a real number technically, it's just, it's just there. It's not actually meaningful. So when you have scenarios like this, odds comparison tools don't really work. 

16:18
And when rob mentioned, like you know, stick to two or three or four, that's probably the sweet spot. There is maybe three books. Pick your best three live betting outs and just go for those ones, because you need to be able to see when stuff's actually on the board. When stuff's off the board, you need to be able to check, obviously, the betting limits of each site, how much each will be taking at certain times, whether it's actually truly in game or at a commercial break and different things like that. So sticking to two or three, obviously shopping around between those two or three is good, but this is not the spot where you can have any like slow outs, because otherwise you're going to, you know, just waste time trying to get bets in and it's going to be frustrating and a terrible like betting experience. 

16:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said, the biggest difference between pregame betting and live betting and, honestly, the reason I really wanted to do this topic is because we get lots of questions about live betting. But also, if you, if you Google NFL live betting which I did today and went through some of the content out there, it's pretty poor. It's a lot of repetitive stuff. You'll see the same thing. The biggest thing that's not touched on is the difference between the markets. When you are pregame betting on the NFL, you're putting your number or your bet into a sportsbook. We've talked about this before. You're betting into a sportsbook, but the reality is you are competing against other people in the market who are shifting the line, with money Bookmakers just reacting to where the money goes. During live betting, that does happen as well. Somebody bets into a line it's going to move, but you're more so betting against an algorithm. Essentially, that's what most sports books are doing. They're paying some sort of data provider to provide them with live probabilities in real time. They're taking those probabilities, they're adding a VIG on both sides, which is typically more than a pregame market, and you're betting against that algorithm. 

18:07
So your biggest edge in live betting is trying to understand what that algorithm is accounting for. 

18:14
What's being accounted for here, and where can I possibly deviate from that? The perfect example, or one of the perfect examples, was a game that we've talked about on this podcast before, which happened in the NFL this season a Monday night football game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, where the wind was blowing very strongly in one direction, but live odds were not accounting for that, and you could have easily been able to back a team with the wind or bet against the team going into the wind, which was clearly not factored into the probability. So these are the kinds of edges you are looking for Now. Oftentimes you're going to have to act fast because, again, it's competitive market. You're competing with other people as well who are going to bet into that same line, but the algorithms you eventually, over time, will become more and more sophisticated, but they can only account for so much yeah, and, as rob mentioned, when you're when you're betting against an algorithm versus a market, there's a ability to be first to market on certain reactionary news. 

19:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So rob mentioned like win and stuff like that. Obviously the biggest one is injuries. Like as soon as a player gets injured, oftentimes in an nfl game, you don't know if he's actually out for the game or if he just hobbled off and he's going to be right back in the next play. So for things like a quarterback, you'll have, like I recall a couple of weeks ago, derek Carr, quarterback for the Raiders, go down and the commentators were making a big deal. They're like, oh, carr went down, like he's holding his knee or something like that, like this could be a bad one. They're like there's no marcus mariotta on the sideline today, like this could be a bad situation for the raiders. Like obviously implying that there's a chance that not their second string quarterback but actually their third string quarterback on the roster would be coming in. 

19:58
Uh, to man the game and what happened was just like it went to commercial break. There was a tweet fired off that said car is actually fine, he just put his helmet back on, he's entering the game and at the time the betting market had shifted so people had moved it towards one way, obviously the line you're betting against an algorithm, right? So the algorithm doesn't actually factor in that info. It's humans moving it and bets moving it and people trading it on the other side of things. So you have a situation like that. 

20:28
The news comes back that actually car is fine, you know, go ahead back, you can bet the Raiders after the adjustment, things like that. So that's one way that you can actually bet against people and other market makers and movers in this situation is being reactionary to news, being first to market on either news that someone's out or news that it was implied someone was out and they're actually back in. Um, but then when we're talking about betting against just the straight algorithm, you have other things, like rob mentioned, like the wind, or like is a kicker injured? Like is the kicker injured? Now they're no longer gonna kick field goals and now you can go hammer a bunch of different stuff, like total field goes under, next score, touchdown, next score, next three scores, touchdowns. 

21:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like you can hammer all those on certain live betting books where you can just like pick off across the board yeah, I would say like, team tendencies and strengths change over the course of a season as well, but they're not encapsulated. One example would be a team that fires their coach mid-season and a new coach comes in and their style of play when leading or trailing is very different than the previous coach. Well, if you're building an algorithm to account for what a team's going to do when they're leading, you're going to take the long sample of the entire season. Say, this team plays really fast, they throw the ball, they still throw the ball, or whatever and then you might get a completely different dynamic. So again, it's just trying to pick up on things that, um I don't want to say an unsophisticated algorithm, because they're actually very sophisticated, but they're also very easy to to kind of predict and know what's being factored into those right. Like if you were building some sort of model to account for the NFL, is this going to be something that would be easily incorporated? 

22:11
And in a lot of cases you know two injuries on the same play on an offensive line or something like that. It's very likely that that's going to be factored in immediately. Also, it's going to be the. The opposing team is going to factor into that equation as well. Did that injury actually matter in the grand scheme of things? Is the market going to overreact to that type of thing with the matchup? So there's all sorts of stuff, but I'd certainly say injuries, weather and any sort of dynamic shift over the course of a season that you think is something completely different from what we would have expected earlier on in the season is probably not being captured correctly yeah, I agree. 

22:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, when we talk, when we talk about again betting against that algorithm and not necessarily like just factoring in how it's made, um, what I would say is and we've heard people talk about this you know people like Ed Miller, matt Davidoff, who run Deck Prism Sports. They do the live betting software for a number of sports books that has been publicly announced, including some of the largest ones in the US and offshore, and what they've mentioned is, like you know, they're building this based on an algorithm that they have and then they're adjusting in game and they're constantly making improvements, right. So, the end of the day, when you're building it based on an algorithm, what they're essentially saying is this team was a 16 point favorite coming in. Now they're down 14. This is the new spread based on our mathematical model, but oftentimes it doesn't factor in that certain teams have different tendencies, like rob said, and they might be playing different in the game. 

23:41
So, when you look at a team, like last week, the, the new york jets were playing the sorry, the bucks, the bucks, and it seemed like they were really trying to go for the win there. There was two scenarios late in game where the jets actually went for um, they went for it on fourth down instead of potentially punting it, which in some scenarios is like the safer play and probably the statistically correct play, on at least the first one there. And if you pick up on those tendencies there's oftentimes you can say like okay, the Jets are trying to win this game really, really badly, like they're likely going to go for it. Maybe the spread is not going to come into play as much as the money line in this game. So maybe you know the spread of plus three and a half isn't going to matter, or plus two and a half isn't going to matter because the jets are either going to win this game or they're going to lose it by six, or they're going to lose it by whatever three. Here they're not going to kick this field goal, they're going to try to score a touchdown and not send it to ot. 

24:33
You might have other scenarios where not saying that a team is tanking, but there's scenarios where you can tell that a team has just given up on the game and this might even come into play in like the third quarter. Right, if a team has the ball, they're down 21 points. You have a fourth and one at midfield at the end of the third and they punt that ball away. They've essentially given up on that game. And then you get into the fourth quarter and it's in. They might have, you know, another fourth and two, uh, on their own 45 and you'll see them punted away again. 

25:03
At that point you can pretty much safely assume that for the rest of the game, any borderline scenario they're going to punt the ball away, it's going to really impact what your value on the actual point spread is going to be in that game, knowing that this team is not actually going to start firing away. Um, typically that's a key sign to bet the under in the game versus the over. And also, you know, potentially, depending on what the spread is at the time, you can find an advantage there. And then there's other scenarios where you can see a team is down and they're like doesn't matter if I lose by two or if I lose by 28, right, so I'm gonna be going for this like crazy, and if I lose, I lose. So in those scenarios there's way more variance and then again you have an additional edge there and then that's typically a scenario in which you'd bet that over in the game, because if it's a fourth and one at their own 30, they go for it. 

25:56
You know, in the scenario that they miss it, it's probably points on the board for the other team and in the scenario where they're more aggressive, it's a higher expected value points for your team. So, looking at tendencies like that, when teams have given up and when they're actually still trying to win the game and they don't care how much they lose by you know you mentioned this on twitter like a lot of teams now it seems like they're the coaches are kind of trying to more save face and lose by a little less. They don't want to get absolutely thrashed by the cowboys, so they'll try to, you know, punt the ball a little more, kick field goals even when the game's already over, just to make it so that they only lost by 11. When the end of the day, losing by 11, it's getting you the same amount credit as a loss by 28, for sure um, okay, so we've gone over dynamic changes. 

26:37
One thing do you agree there? 

26:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
by the way, I do yeah, that happens all the time. I mean you kind of know, sometimes by the aggressiveness of the coach over the course of the year as well, and who it is, whether they're going to be going for a fourth down situation, so you can almost get that bet in in advance sometimes of the actual fourth down coming, like if it's a third and long, and you know the coach is going to go for it. I mean, I'm just, but yes, I, yeah what I was. 

26:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not even talking about like the chargers going for it more this year and like stuff like that, what I'm straight, or like the packers have been going for it more when they're in short yard situations. 

27:08
I'm I'm talking like just seeing in the game like a team being down and being like, oh the jags, are they gave up? They're trying to go Like, if it's fourth and 15 with six minutes left and you're down, two scores like you have to go for that. You're not going to win the game. If you punt it and if they punt that, then what that just tells you is that this game is over and they're probably just going to punt again on the next down as well. So it's a scenario where you can just look at that. So it's a scenario where you can just look at that. I'm saying, after having the info come in, that they've, quote unquote given up um and then find an edge there on whether it be the total um or the spread, depending on again, if the key numbers are going to come into place, which I'm sure is something we'll talk about in a second well, I think it's a valid point and I mean it can be brought back to real life. 

27:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But you look at you mentioned the chargers, yougers. You look at Brandon Staley, their head coach, known for being highly aggressive. They were playing the Denver Broncos last week, a situation where Denver had a lot of COVID going on with the team. The Chargers went off as eight, eight and a half point favorites. Brandon Staley actually was kicking long field goals on fourth and short, which is very unlike what he would typically do in the past. That's something that if you're modeling the course of a season with the Chargers going to go for it or not, you would give them a very high probability to go for it. You see them kick that first field goal. You say, okay, maybe something's different here with the mentality of the game. They realize they just don't want to. They'll make the Broncos work for things or something like that. I don't really know what the logic was. I don't really know what the logic was, but that just changes the way that they're going to play the game right. Probably got backlash for losing a Houston, of course, I mean, who knows that media? Media was all over him. Um, key numbers and line shopping. We talked about a little bit about the line shopping, but I think you have very challenging thing for most recreational bettors when they are live betting the NFL is the amount of time that they have to get in a bet and trying to distinguish which of the numbers that they're getting at different sports books is actually better, because you'll get lots of funky numbers which you don't see pre-game and you'll get like 18 and a half, 23 and a half. So you don't see these spreads pre-game in the NFL at least it's very rare. And on top of that, because sports books charge more vig for live, you often get some funky VIG on the games, minus 127 on a side or something like that. So it's very difficult for you in real time to have three sportsbooks open and, like I said, type in all these lines in some sort of tool you know lots of people use Unabated. You can go there and type in three lines. That's great, pregame In-game very difficult and challenging to do. So. That's great, pregame in game very difficult and challenging to do. 

29:41
So I think a good exercise for anyone who is more recreational and wants the live bet is to actually go through the practice of doing this in real time, where maybe it's a commercial break and you get three different lines at a sports book. You kind of write them all down or put them in a spreadsheet and in that moment, pick out what you think is the best line and do that for an entire game, do that for multiple games and at the end of the day, go back after the game's over the following day, figure out how many times you were correct or not and which ones you were incorrect on, and you will just learn by basically going through that type of process. You learn through error. So I think that's something that's very important because, again, it we preach it all the time, but it really does make a big difference. 

30:20
Like, even if you're saving 5 cents, 10 cents on a game, this stuff all adds up over time and even if you're a casual, better it's still worthwhile to do it. Anyone does this in their daily life in terms of cost savings, right? Um, if you're getting the exact same thing for a different price, you're always going to take the cheaper price. So go through that process, try to understand what the better numbers are in terms of incorporating the VIG and everything like that. But it does make the world a difference and in real time. You just don't have the opportunity to do that. 

30:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I'd say to add to that, obviously, practice makes perfect. 

30:51
But there's a lot of times where people have, you know, in their head, they have ideas of what some key numbers are from pre-game, which they're absolutely correct about, you know. 

30:59
So, um, obviously, in nfl highest key number would be the three, right, the one, the one field goal score. So you have like a plus three and a half and a minus two and a half. That's an automatic earn at a low enough juice rate in pre-game, right. But in game, when the scores are all jumbled up, oftentimes of books, and I won't say like they won't get you, they're not out to get you or anything like that but a lot of times people will get caught by buying points that are completely useless or dead numbers, completely dead. So an example of this would be um, let's talk about let's, I'll go for the for the exact, correct answer. I'll say, like, let's say we're talking about NFL playoff game, okay, and you have Chargers, chiefs, and the Chargers are up three, okay, so now, if the Chargers are up three and you now take a spread that is Chiefs minus three, okay, that means that you have the Chiefs to win by three points, right? So the three is the exact same in that scenario as the three and a half, because the reality is you cannot tie that game in the nfl playoffs, right? So the chiefs winning the game and went like, covering minus, like three and I'm talking sorry, i'm'm talking more about like an in-play live, that's like a second half or a quarter line or something like that Got it. So not even like a full game line in this scenario, which we'll get into in a second. But let's say you're at the half, okay, and you're betting a live bet, like a second half bet, and you're taking the Chiefs minus three. The Chiefs minus three if they're already down three is the exact same as Chiefs minus three and a half and two and a half, because you cannot tie. So if you see minus two and a half, minus 125, you're much better off to take minus three minus 110, and, even better, you're much better off to take minus three and a half at plus 100. It's essentially the same bet, but you're getting different numbers for each. So this is gonna be be a significant, significant advantage if you're looking at in-game betting but when I say in-game betting, I don't mean the straight money line or straight game spread, I mean anything to do with quarters, halves or alternate scoring that has to do with like a specific thing. 

33:12
So those are big deals in these scenarios where you're not able to, or even just you know game goes to overtime, you know like factor in what the chances are of like the game going to ot. Sometimes that's like almost dead on arrival, right, and they don't adjust the odds significantly for that. Um, you know, for example, if the game is currently at a five point differential, then it's it's possible to go to ot. You know you have the field goal and go by two. But it's a little more difficult, for example, than if the game's at four point differential and you have a team scoring a touchdown, extra point and the other team tying it back up with a field goal. So, looking at these dead numbers, um, also scenarios like that I've been talking for a while now. But if the team is, if the spread, for example, is uh, you know, plus two and a half, uh, and that team is currently uh, down by three, then it's very tough for the two and a half to come into play in the actual game because what's likely going to happen is they'll either I mean I'm talking late game scenario. But if they tie it up and send it to overtime, it's very hard for the two and a half. 

34:15
It would have to be a safety in ot, obviously, or something to do with a missed extra point in regulation as well. It might be like a touchdown and then a field goal. There's a lot of differences. That might happen because if you're down three and you go for it and you get a touchdown, you're going to be up three. You can kick the extra point to go up four. Now the other team is also not going to just try to kick a field goal. You know, I mean they're going to try to go for a touchdown and then when they get that touchdown, they're going to want to be up three as well. So they're going to kick the extra point and not go for two. So the the scenario there where the two and a half comes into play is very unlikely. So again, in that scenario, why take the two and a half when you can take the money line at a better odds, or the plus one or plus half, whatever it might be in that scenario. 

35:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. Two more things I want to get to, but they are more about dispelling myths, I would say, about live betting. These came up in every content piece that I read about today. All right, and I disagree with them. That doesn't mean that I'm right, but I'll tell you specifically why I disagree with both of them. You can tell me if you agree or not. 

35:23
The first one don't chase. So when people say don't chase, this is the idea that you've already made a live bet. I'll pick a random team. You've bet the Bears plus seven against the Packers and plus seven against the Packers, and the Packers have now went and scored another touchdown and the live odds have updated and you can get now plus 14 and a half or something. Just throwing random numbers out there. Most of these sites will say don't chase. You have the possibility of you know, losing way too much, and the reality is, if you think that that second bet is still a good bet, then you should place it now. Obviously, you have the risk of losing more on a game when you start making more bets on a game. This, just this is just like common sense, right? But if you feel like you're getting a valuable line, you should not avoid it just because you've already bet it at a worse line yeah, it's not an automatic do and don't. 

36:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I I agree 100 like what I think you know most of the time. Like, yeah, if you're just like trying to have fun on the game and you're dunking some negative ev bets and you're just like tossing some money on something that's just for fun and then you get a better line, like, yeah, probably the best call is not to dunk your entire sportsbook balance on one bet. But in general, like there's no, there's no way that could be a rule of thumb. Like avoid chasing. Like what? Chasing what you know what I mean. Like you got to be. 

36:45
If you have a bet and then the line moves. Now it's a new situation in game you may have a new edge that's uncovered based on the new line at the new you know point spread or or money line odds based on the new score in the game. So obviously you you're going to have a correlated bet if you like the same side. So potentially staking like a little bit less on that as per correct bankroll management, might be a little bit better. But all in, like there's no way that you should that. That should be a rule of thumb. Like, don't chase your bets, never bet once you have, you know, gone down the rabbit hole and already had a bet in like, obviously, everything within reason. 

37:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You don't want to keep doubling down over and over and over and like increasing your like again. Everything within reason, dollar cost, average, right. The reality is, though, is that if you think that you've you've made a bad bet earlier in the game, whatever that's fine. That's going to happen because of the nature of the nfl. Any score or field position change, turnover is going to change the live odds. 

37:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you feel that something has worked against you and you're getting a better price and you still have value at that, price bet it yeah, there's also been times where I've done the reverse on that and you know, sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. But what I say when I mean, what I mean when I say the reverse is, let's say, like you have a team in hockey down three, nothing, and I think it's. They're completely outplaying the other team and it's going to be a significant chance that they come back to tie this game and I bet them at plus a thousand and then they score a goal. Now they're down three one and I still think it's mispriced at plus 600, which obviously the line got in your favor and moved in my favor. 

38:18
Uh, I might hit them again at plus 600, and then what? What might happen is now they're down three, two, and they still might be priced in a range of plus 300, which I still see as value. So I'm going to add more to my position, even though the line that I'm getting now is actually, quote unquote, less favorable, even though it's moved in my favor. But I'm getting less return now, I mean less odds. Um, I'll still bet it because I still feel it's an edge, even though it's going the other way around. So definitely, I think what you're saying is 100 true. There's no rule of thumb. Like you can, you can repop something three, four or five times in either direction. Obviously, just be cognizant that you're not, you know, entering a spot where you're betting more than you could afford to lose because they are, you know, in all scenarios correlated on the same team the second one I wanted to get into, which this is common sense. 

39:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We've talked about this on this podcast before, um, I hope that people who have listened to previous episodes can pick up right when I say this um, what the problem is always try to middle the game. Now, this, now this is a thing people do and that's fine. You know the whole idea of getting you know plus money on both sides of a game. You're guaranteed to win money, regardless of who wins. I get it. I understand why people would want to do that guarantee themselves money. 

39:35
The reality is you should never make a bet that you don't think is positive expected value just to guarantee yourself money. You're actually costing yourself ev in the long run by making that bet. So a lot of people will do that. They're like okay, I can get a middle on this game, I can walk away with some money. Sometimes it doesn't make sense, and that doesn't just apply to live betting. That applies to every opportunity you ever have to middle. I see this all the time, especially in this day and age in the NFL because of the COVID news. You see the line swing so much that people will bet it and then they'll bet the other side at close to give themselves an opportunity to middle. That's fine, provided that you actually feel that you have value on that other side when you bet it. 

40:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, we've said before, if you're, if you're just doing this for fun and it's more fun for you to lock in the profit live another day, that's fine. You know you could do it, but it's not. You're not going to make money long term by doing that. You're going to cost yourself money longer, as rob said. Simply put quite obvious you're, you cannot, you can, never are about of your bets that didn't move in your favor. You know what I mean. So if that's the case and you can't are about a bet that didn't move in your favor, what's going to happen is you're going to are about are the ones that are high expected value and you're going to just straight lose the ones that are low expected value. 

40:58
All in, you're costing yourself money and with the total vig on live betting market we didn't really mention this, but it's it is a higher significant yeah, it's a significant juice like typically you're not going to be betting into like minus 110 minus 110, usually be minus 15 minus 15 in some cases. Um, you know, you might have minus 10 minus 10, but that will be for more reduced juice books. That might be a minus 05 minus 05 pregame. So in any scenario the book will never offer you the same odds pregame and in play. So just even you know, factoring that in is like you're paying additional vig to our boat. Uh, it's probably not smart, unless you feel you have an edge on that, for whatever reason. Reacting to news something else came in, new info or, if you like that side better. 

41:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, I think we did a good job with this topic. We're about 40 minutes in here. 

41:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I gotta say you wanna skip this next topic? 

41:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, let's do it, let's start it. 

41:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's skip it to next week. Okay, let's do that, and then we'll get into the segment now, sure, and then we can do. Sounds good. 

41:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is a really big topic. I'm proud of you, by the way. You lasted 40 minutes. You didn't pick up your mic, you didn't turn your chair. You've been in like the same spot so it took like a week for you to develop some professionalism. I got this new chair. 

42:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is the thing. This one swivels and I went off mic here this one swivels. The other chair I had was not. It was just like a regular like folding chair. We're still coming up with the full setup and we got a new table coming in that should be a lot better in terms of like angling for us to be facing each other and facing the camera as well. So we're making do where we are, but I thank you for that. Yeah, I'm trying to. Last week was was a mess. When I watched that back, I was fidgeting with everything it was. 

42:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, it wasn't your finest performance. But listen, everyone grows, everyone gets better. You learn from experience, right? Sometimes you know I wasn't a winning better. When I first started betting, I was running away from bookies all over the place owing like 800 bucks when I was in high school. You learn from these experiences and you move on. 

42:52
What happened to you. Okay, here's what we're going to do. The second topic that we were going to do was bankroll management. It's very convoluted and bloated. I would say we could probably spend an hour on it, so we will move it. It won't be next week. Next week we're going to have Adam Chernoff on. 

43:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so we'll save it for the next episode. So we'll save it for the next episode. 

43:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's an educational topic which will be bankroll management, because there's a lot to talk about there. But we will get into a new segment which I'm looking forward to. Let's see how this goes. Zach, you can hit it. 

43:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad. 

43:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I get paid. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? 

43:37 - Social Media Clip 1 (Sharky Waters) (Other)
It's only a game. Why do you? 

43:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
have to be mad. Okay, tweets that trigger us. We're going to get started here. We have selected. We'll go through the process. First of what happens. I spend so much of my week on Twitter probably more so than you, johnny. I get mad when I see some stuff. Part of it is just like dumb commentary. It's directed at me like Pizzola, you're an idiot for feeling this way. That's not kind of the stuff I want to focus on, but when I do get triggered, I'm making notes of. This is what really bothered me, and the idea is not to rip these people per se although I might get there, because sometimes I'm a negative, pessimistic person, but it's too you mad, bro. Sometimes, yes, and I'd like to turn it into a learning experience in some cases. Sometimes it'll be very obvious, sometimes it won't be, but this would be heavily dominated by my tweets tweets, but we'll start with one of yours, because you wanted to contribute to this session all right. 

44:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So for anyone listening on audio, right now we do have the youtube available with the video content. If you want to check it out, please subscribe on youtube. It will help us out a lot in terms of growing, uh and exploring a new audience. So we'll read out the tweets first. I guess who they're from. Like to give some context. If you're on video, you can follow along here. So first one I'm going to read out. 

45:05
This is from Rob's good friend, spread Investor, who he's known for quite some time and I know he's been over his house for dinner and so he's like a good buddy of his. So he is posting. I'll give the context. Somebody DM'd him off Twitter. He blurred out the name and he said. 

45:23
The person who DM'd him said do you have any tips on bankroll management? Have you written an article about it anywhere? Love your stuff, man, and I'm excited for when college basketball picks up. So he's asking for tips on bankroll management and exactly how that works. And here was the response from Spread Investor. So he said it all stems from emotion. Control your emotions. You control the bankroll. Everyone talks about bankroll management, but when you're not tilting, there is no logic. You have to find something to do to replace the tilt, go for a walk, turn off the phone. But it's all about how you premeditate that stuff well before the bet. Have to have to visualize seeing yourself under control even after the worst beats. It's like a diet and avoiding the fatty foods at parties so obviously by the way, I didn't see this tweet in real time. 

46:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't. I don't follow this guy. I can't. Johnny's joking. He's being like very um, what's the word I'm looking for? Sarcastic, sarcastic, yeah, when he says that we're friends, I don't like this guy at all. Had I seen this, this could have been a candidate for me as well, so I'm glad you picked this one out. 

46:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So here's why this tweet triggered me. Okay and, very simply put, I'll start this off by saying this this the advice he's giving in this tweet is fine advice for for a lot of stuff, you know. Oh, he's saying you got to control your emotions, you have to be calm, not get tilted. It's like a diet you have to avoid the fatty food at parties. You know what. Honestly, that might be fine advice for other stuff, but let me tell you what it is not fine advice for, and that is bankroll management, because I'll tell you what bankroll management is. This is, quite honestly, so mathematical that it has nothing to do with emotion and control and meditation and things like that that he's talking about. 

47:15
Bankroll management is optimizing how much money you have per your bet size so that you can A stay in the game longer and not go bust and, b maximize your return with the most amount of money. There is, quite simply, mathematical strategies and formulas that you can apply to your betting, based on your betting style, your risk tolerance and the amount of money you have, that are going to help you. What he is giving advice for here, like I said, is absolutely not bankroll management. He's giving advice on how to not be a problem gambler. He's giving you advice on how to not yes, you know what else you got to do when you when you lose $500, don't stay up late play on the online casino and lose another thousand. You have to. You definitely can't do that. You have to be disciplined. But I will say, meditating, thinking about it, getting in the zone and avoiding fatty food at parties is not going to help you with your bank role management. 

48:12
That was a topic we had for this podcast, and we're going to break it down in detail. We'll put some stuff on the screen, show you exactly how to calculate stuff in a future episode. That's going to actually help you. In the meantime, feel free to take this advice, though. If you are trying to lose some weight for the new year, well, said yeah, I mean, I have nothing more to add. 

48:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is just advice on how not to be problem problem gambler. That's exactly what it is which is fine. To be problem problem gambler, that's exactly what it is which is fine, definitely not tips for bankroll management. 

48:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, his tip is go for a walk go for a walk. 

48:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, you know what listen. Sometimes you got to blow off some steam. I listen to music or whatever, but it's never affecting how much? 

48:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have a thousand dollars. How much should I be betting per game? Go for a walk go for a walk. 

48:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Avoid those fatty foods at parties, and maybe it'll come to you. Go for a walk. Go for a walk, avoid those fatty foods at parties, and maybe it'll come to you go for a walk and visualize how much you're gonna bet for this game. 

49:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's how you bankroll man all right. 

49:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tweet number two we move on. All right, I'll give some context for this one. This is from an account called hockey statistics at hockey statistic one. Now I have called Hockey Statistics at HockeyStatist1. Now, I have nothing against this account. I don't follow it. I actually think somebody sent this to me or tagged it with trigger tweets or something like that. 

49:29
But there's a chart here of the log loss of closing lines for NHL over time. Log loss is just an error metric For anyone who doesn't know. It's just a measure of how well the closing line has performed over time which has fallen off a cliff the last two years. Here I'll get to that in a second the tweet. I'm working on a new prediction model, so I'm building a baseline from the log loss of the closing lines. The market log loss this season and last is significantly lower than the previous seasons. This stuff again. I'm sure this is a nice guy who's just evergreen or sorry like green in the space doesn't understand. Guy who's just evergreen or sorry like green in the space doesn't understand if the log loss or the closing line of a sport is getting worse. 

50:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Explain what the chart means. Explain what it what it means, because it is I'm not gonna say it's valuable, but it does show a trend. To explain what trend it does, and I can get into that over time. 

50:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We see very consistently for the last decade or so that the log loss is in a similar range and then last year and this year for hockey, it's going way down. The closing line is less efficient in the NHL. This does not mean the bookies are getting better. In fact, it would mean the exact opposite. If the closing line is worse, it technically means the bookies are worse. But even furthering this argument, it has nothing to technically means the bookies are worse. But even furthering this argument, it has nothing to do with the bookies. It has literally nothing to do with the bookies. It is a measure of what the market is betting. 

51:09
Again, being a bookmaker no disrespect to bookmakers out there I have friends that are. Jeff Davis is one that comes to mind who would probably entirely agree with me here. It's very simple. You're just moving based off of the money that's coming in. It's not that complicated. So to say that bookies are getting better because the closing line is getting worse is completely irrelevant. 

51:33
And on top of that, what bothers me the most about this is like let's think about what's happened in the world in the last two years. Why do we think the closing lines in sports are getting worse. Well, last year, if we think about hockey, there was games with some fans. There was games with no fans. There was games where half the team was missing. There's games where we have third string goalies. Starting now, Of course, it's much more difficult to predict that, and that's happening in the nfl this year. How much, how many times have you seen this year? Nfl closing line means nothing anymore. It still means a lot. It's just much more difficult to arrive at the true probability on a game when you have so many more unknowns and like unprecedented situations yeah, exactly, and that's unknowns and like unprecedented situations. 

52:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, exactly, and that's it makes a lot of sense. What rob's saying like the bookies has nothing like. That's probably what triggered you. 

52:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm assuming the most. This is the stuff that drives me crazy, though or the bookies are getting better. 

52:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're like a. That would mean, because you're right, that it technically, what he thinks this is is actually he's wrong because he his conclusion is the exact should be the exact should be that if he said here the bookies are getting worse, then you probably wouldn't have been triggered, but also it didn't have to do. 

52:46
The bookies, it's the market and the betters are getting worse because if that line is sitting there and not bet into place and the log loss is actually declined, that actually means that the betters are worse because the market's less efficient technically would be easier to beat, so that would mean that the bookies got worse. 

53:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But really what it means is the betters got worse and really, on top of that, like rob said, what it means is there's just been more variants because there's a lot more things that we don't have sample size for yeah, what really bothers me overall about these is just when people don't understand how the betting space works and they think that there's like whether it's Vegas knows those ones are the ones that like, and it's kind of a similar type of thing here. Right, it's kind of like you could summarize that conclusion as Vegas knows, the bookies are getting better and it's like that's not how things work. 

53:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, would that even mean that the parity has decreased Like what would that have to do with anything? I? 

53:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
don't. I don't know what the conclusion of this tweet is. That's why I was so rattled when I read it. 

53:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There is parity in the NHL right. The largest favorites that we used to have in the NHL were, like you know, every game was within like roughly minus 300 on either on either end minus 200 plus 300. Now this year we have seen I think that's the Florida over Montreal a couple of weeks or maybe last week was the biggest favorite. 

54:04
I think at some places, like yeah, I don't know what, what we'd give us a consensus, but definitely it was like minus 600. In some places, minus six, 50. That's the biggest line or biggest spread I've ever witnessed in NHL. Could be wrong spread I've ever witnessed in nhl, could be wrong, but so yeah, the parity is decreasing, but but that's like overall. I don't know if that's correct because I think the parity is decreasing. It's like a game like that montreal is like half the team out and starting like a worse goalie. 

54:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So yeah, like no, no, I don't even know what the parity would have to do I'll tell you what's going to happen to the log loss of the closing line when things go back to normal in the world. It's going to look the exact same as the previous years, Because we have a longer sample of previous years being in a very small range and then a huge drop-off over the last couple of seasons. Well, why is that? I mean it's. I mean I can think of a very you know easy hypothesis as to why. Oh, okay, Live moods, Live moods. 

55:10
Let me preface this. I'm going to preface every single tweet we ever do by saying I don't have anything against this person, unless we do With Spread Investor. I have something against them. So I have no problem with that one. Live moods, no problem with live moods. In fact, she's retweeted some Betstamp stuff before. She's been a supporter of the brand, no issues with that. So I just want to get into this Because this one really bothered me, Really agitated me. I had some great teased plays today but thanks to the Colts and Lions, the teasers didn't hit Steaming angry face. Then we have three, two teaser lists. 

55:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One which is a incorrect three late, two, three leg teasers. She's listing out the teaser place for those listening on audio. She's listing out her place. Colts minus two rams minus one, bangles plus nine and a half, and right beside each is the result. So it's either a like, a loss, a push, or a win. 

56:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What drove me crazy about one? I had some great teased plays today, two teasers, both of them lost. One of them had a loss and a push in the same teaser, when we get to the point of evaluating individual plays within teasers. 

56:24 - Social Media Clip 1 (Sharky Waters) (Other)
I can't get to that point ever. 

56:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That drives me absolutely insane. But this second teaser for me, a great teaser has nothing to do with whether it won or lost. Let me start by saying that Obviously you want to win at sports betting, but you also want to capture certain numbers in the NFL. That second teaser the losing play is lions plus 12 and a half, where you are going through so many dead numbers on a teaser eight nine you all of the dead 11 that is arguably one of the worst teaser plays imaginable. 

57:07
now it looks to me, just based off these spreads, this is some sort of weird like four or five point teaser it's not even really a six point teaser. That top one is seems fine to me because you're at least capturing. Like, if you have a four point teaser, which I think FanDuel does you're at least capturing three on two of those bets and seven on one of them. Like that that I'm okay with. Mathematically it's still probably a losing endeavor in the long run. Just based off the VIG. But whatever, Capturing key numbers, that second one teasing a total down from like 45 to 41. Okay, that's actually not too bad because at least you go through 44, but you're teasing a total for one and then lines plus 12 and a half. But what really bothered me was the individual recap of the teaser plays. Like I can't get over that. 

57:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can't. 

57:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We can't do this. We cannot do this with teaser plays where you say you lost one of the three plays on the teaser and it was a great, great teaser Well, one one and one. 

58:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, like we can't, which I don't know. I mean, I don't know if FanDuel's grading on these, but for most of the PPHs like one single push in the teaser pushes the whole parlay, so she might have got a break there. 

58:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't actually know. But we can't do this. We cannot get to this. We cannot say like this was a great parlay when one of the legs lost and one of the legs pushed Like it wasn't. 

58:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Or what about if you went three and two in a parlay on a five team parlay and then said, great parlay, If I had only straight bedded I would have made money. 

58:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly. That's exactly what I'm getting at, right. So I actually do appreciate the recaps. We need more of this kind of stuff where people do recap their plays and actually honestly and transparently do that. I'm fine with that and everything to do with that. 

58:47
But this one bothered me. I'm sorry it had to be live moods. It could have been anyone, honestly, could have literally been anyone. But yes, that's, that's it Like. And then I guess the bottom part even triggers me as well, which is early leans from Tuesday, which is Cardinals plus five and a half check Mark, next to it, bengals plus five and a half check mark, next to it, lions plus seven with an X next to it. You know what the word lean means to me, johnny, it means I didn't bet this game. I won $0 off of this game. I don't celebrate winning $0. Personally, I don't like, like that. I don't like recapping leans as winners and losers. Well, here's a question. You think like I don't know, I don't know live enough, but does that happen if? If those leans went? Oh, and three, are they in the in the tweet? 

59:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, maybe, maybe not, I don't know. I mean, for I I don't think live sells picks, so I wouldn't no no listen but a lot of people who do sell picks, then yeah, that's the oldest trick in the book, you know Lean New Orleans plus eight, cash New Orleans plus eight. Yeah, that bothers me, I mean it does. 

59:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm all for record keeping and stuff, but when we start getting into individual plays of teasers, tell me, did the teaser hit? Yes, did you get good numbers in the teaser? Or like did the parlay hit? Yes, what were? You know each leg that you parlay? Did you get good closing line value on that parlay? Same like that. The rest of the stuff is doesn't matter. Doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I've said my piece. I'm sorry it had to be live moods. 

01:00:22
I actually quite like her in general and I know she's built up a pretty large following as well, so it's nothing personal, but this just happened to be one of the tweets that set me off. 

01:00:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, next up, next one this is the surprise me with this one. I haven't seen it yet. 

01:00:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh no, I have okay this one, this, this one, oh, this is this one. Hold that held a special place in my heart this week. This is going to be a two-part tweet. Jersey Capper, who's been using BetStamp for a long time, almost like one of the OGs of the app I would say One of the original gangsters Tweets out right before the new year. According to BetStamp's rolling, verified stats, we have now officially wiped out the deficit from last season, last NHL season. Happy to put that season behind us with the prayer emoji you know hands together. 

01:01:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you had a last losing season last year on the app and a lot of people gave him some grief for it and he's. He's now wiped out. That losing season is now back into the green, so congrats. First off, yes. 

01:01:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Congrats. Next tweet we get a guy in the messages, in the responses. This guy AZDbacks9393. What's funny is his whole month of November is not listed. That's why BetStamp is the chosen play tracking tool for every scammer on Twitter. Where are all of his November plays, frank? He's responding to someone named Frank Jersey Cat member. Subs want to know. So this guy? This is why this tweet really bothers me. 

01:01:58
This guy thinks he's a genius and he's doxing the BetStamp brand. All the scammers go there to track brand. All the scammers go there to track. His issue is that Jersey Capper did not track plays in November on Betstamp. I don't know the reason for that. I have no clue. I don't know Jersey Capper personally. I know back in the day when I was first betting NHL, we used to you know chat on Twitter. Whatever, I don't know the reason. The fact that this guy was actually able to use BetStamp to identify that there were no plays tracked in November is exactly why BetStamp is a useful utility for people who are looking into somebody's record, because there is no way that Jersey capper can delete his November record. It's impossible to do so on our app. Once a play is verified, it exists forever. So this guy thinks he's doxing us and responding and saying this is the platform where every scammer goes, when in reality he is saying exactly why the platform is useful I agree 100 like he's. 

01:03:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's basically saying, like well, this guy didn't play as he didn't have his november picks on there, so like it doesn't count. It's like, well, a first off. I don't know why I didn't bet november. That's something you got to take up with him. But now you know that that was not there, right, like you know what was there and what was not there. You know for a fact that all the picks he placed on BetStand that he tracked there are legit, are verified, and now he is in the green on BetStand. Whether he has alternative bets that he had placed or tracked in other metrics or other other platforms or on twitter is. Again that speaks to the shadiness of someone, or whatever it might be. For all we know, he said I'm taking november off, I'm not betting in november, or maybe didn't post on bet stamp in november for whatever reason, but his november record was not deleted. His november record was was null. He did not post in november, so now you have that ammunition when talking to someone hey, why is there a november record? Was was null. He did not post in november, so now you have that ammunition. When talking to someone hey, why is there a november record there? What was your real november record? Why is that not on there? Why does this not match with the historical record from uh or that you're advertising? 

01:04:20
So again, rob, great, great find in this one. I think like the reason, yeah, this is. This is almost as if this is like an a pro, an ad for that's exactly this guy. That's, that's what. Like he was able to go not message jersey, cap or go on the platform and immediately, like anyone who we, we do have with the app right now, a lot of people criticize a lot of the users who are doing well. This guy's doing well because he does only this. This guy's doing well because he is pick this. This guy's doing well because he is picking off this line or he's steam chasing injury news or something like that. Like wow, isn't it amazing that you can now go through, do the analysis for yourself and exactly see where everyone is winning and who's beating the closing line and why they're beating it and when they're placing. You can see the exact time that they track the bet. So if you know the, you can go back and now find it. When was LeBron James announced out? 6.58 PM, great. When was that bet tracked? 6.59. All right, he bet that on LeBron injury news. So now you know that that user is doing that and now you can either choose to avoid or, potentially, you know there is an edge there, by the way. So nothing against steam chasing injury news Most of the time that people, if we do, have. 

01:05:32
Oftentimes you'll catch a line that's stale for a minute or two within the app before we can update the lines and we're working on, you know, making that a lot faster. But, like man, these lines exist. If LeBron is out at 658 or 657, then probably up until 658, 659, you're going to be able to catch a price, you know, on the team that's facing the Lakers. So power to it. This is like a pro for Betstamp and a lot of people using the platform to look into people. I guess in this scenario he's not like appreciating that and he thinks it's like a scamming app. But yeah, I agree with you. 100. This is a way for them to actually now go through and see exactly what they're purchasing before they purchase it. 

01:06:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want every scammer. But, by the way, I should say this jersey capper this is not has nothing to do with him whatsoever. I don't know why his november wasn't on there. Could have won in november, could have lost. I have no clue. Okay, that has nothing to do it and I'm not calling him a scammer, by the way. I just want to make that clear. But I want every scammer on Twitter to be on BetStamp. That would be great, because at least now somebody can do their due diligence on this person rather than just going through whatever made-up records they have on Twitter. So this, I mean this should be printed out and we should frame it and put it in the office, we should put in this studio. 

01:06:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is like as as good as you can get in terms of promoting also I'll point out for anyone listening, like, had he been recapping on like a spreadsheet or um, like tagged in his bio or on action network, then there is a like reasonable amount of certainty that the november record would have just been deleted, right, like, oh, why isn't he, why didn't he have november record? Probably lost and deleted it? You would never know. But on bet stamp that's not the case. You can't do that. So we know for a fact that, like you know, there's got to be an alternative motive. You have to reach out to him and obviously figure that out. Um, but like, the plays that are on bet stamp are on bet stamp. They can't be altered, they can't be adjusted. It is what it is. So that record on bet stamp, he's back in the green. 

01:07:27
As far as I'm concerned, there's other things people may need to look at before buying his package if that is the thing with the november. But all in, he is back in the green, he's having a good season. It's all documented. You can see with the time that the bets were tracked and you can see the closing line value on it. So power to you. Um, again, I don't know jersey caapper personally either and I definitely wouldn't call him a scammer, as he's using the platform and you know he is in the green Like, whether you like it or not. Like you know, a lot of haters potentially don't want other people to succeed, but he's back in the green Congrats. Hopefully it stays like that. 

01:08:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, zach let's hit the last one here. Okay, this one is interesting, so let me just read this and then we're going to have we're going to have the audio for you, johnny, this is going to be the first time you're going to hear it, because it came with uh, came with a video accompaniment. Um, for those listening to the podcast, you know you need the audio with it, but this is coming from sharks and sports, sharky waters nation. Sharks and Sports Sharky Waters Nation on Twitter, in quotations when you refine the craft, you have less plays an opportunity to think clearly. And let's see what he has to say. 

01:08:38 - Social Media Clip 1 (Sharky Waters) (Other)
When you start to get to a higher level of refining of the craft, you have less plays because you up your monetary exposure in a play. When I was more juvenile in the craft, I would have 10, 12, 15 plays, but I was only playing $50 per play, so my exposure was still $500. Now I come in there I'm 500 to 1K a unit and it's only big bomb bangers. And I don't say that as a cliche point to market. We only hone in on the top spots, but we zone in monetarily as well, and it's just a key point. 

01:09:11
In sports betting there are not that many great spots and just in general, when people are throwing huge boards, it usually speaks to just mindset. In the mind there's lack of definition in terms of what's really real and what's middle ground, and when you see a big board, it's usually all middle ground shit and you want top looks, not because it's a marketing angle, but purely because it's honed in in that environment and then you can up your monetary exposure. That's all you really want, right? Like when you're betting sports, you don't want to have 10 units out across 10 games. You want to have one spot that you can trust in terms of numbers and narratives and that's it. 

01:09:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Big bomb bangers. 

01:09:58 - Social Media Clip 1 (Sharky Waters) (Other)
Big bomb bangers. Oh, that's so good. We clipped that, that's so good, zach. 

01:10:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh man, I'm so happy you clipped that I don't even know where to start with this. One other than everything I heard is wrong. Everything like everything. This is the most cliche. Like I'm a sharp sports, better you this is how he's pretty well spoken he was. 

01:10:20
It's great. Like, honestly, he's like, uh, you know, I don't do this for marketing or something like that. I'm like, wow, like this, but this, this guy could sell like he he really could. You know he's don't do this for marketing or something like that. I'm like, wow, this guy could sell Like he really could. You know, he's a guy I'd definitely hire to sell a product, but no, the reality is you should be looking to get as much money down as possible on whatever you have an edge on. That's just the reality of things. If you start to limit yourself to one play, even though it might be your biggest edge, you are leaving a lot of expected value on the table. I think this is one of the biggest pieces of misinformation out there and just perpetually keeps being driven home and driven home and driven home by people that don't actually bet or profit betting, which is, you need to limit the amount of plays that you're putting in, and that is not correct. Now for a casual better who has no edge. 

01:11:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay that rings true what he's, but it still doesn't ring true with what he's saying, because he's saying about the most amount of money. He's saying about the same amount of money. Just just just reduce your. Just he's increasing, just increase your variance tenfold. 

01:11:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. Instead of dividing it across and being able to sustain a bankroll for a longer period of time, let's just throw it all on one pick that you really like. Yeah, but to be fair it is big bomb bangers well. 

01:11:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, that, so that that last part where he said at the end is just completely false, right? Like you never. So, assuming your edge is the same, you always want to, um, reduce variance versus increased variance, right? So an example that people might be even more likely to understand is like if you had a dice roll and you had a positive expected value edge on the dice roll, and so you're given like six to one or seven to one on the dice roll, right? Um then would you rather have one dice roll or would you rather have a thousand dice rolls? You'd probably rather have a thousand dice rolls, right, because you're going to be able to realize that edge. 

01:12:23
So, either way, what he's saying at the end is 100% wrong. You definitely do not want to get less plays. Just for the sake of getting less plays, I bet more money on those plays. That's completely inaccurate. And what he says he's like when you're starting out you got to bet less and then you got to increase your monetary exposure. I don't even know it sounds. It sounds very wordy. It's good. 

01:12:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is what I'm talking about Like this guy would definitely like back in the day, if this guy went door to door like 30 years ago selling encyclopedias, he definitely retired when he was like 34. Selling encyclopedias I only say that because my parents bought like three encyclopedia sets off door to door sales. Yeah, as did mine. Yeah, everybody's did. That's what I'm saying. Like this guy would definitely be. He would have got started right out of school, did 10? 

01:13:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
years hard aggressive selling and then been retired 100 dude, but well. But actually though he is very well spoken, I'll give him that for sure. Um, like a lot of it sounded good um, info in terms of like another thing he mentioned is like there's just not that many like games on the board that are high at high edges, like listen, everyone models, caps, bets in a different way, whatever, whatever you want to call your own style. What I will say is like if he's saying, now we like to key in on three picks a day Now by setting a number, regardless of whether like now, what if there's zero place that day? But his top three, like whether, like now, what if there's zero place that day? But it's top three? 

01:13:52
Like it doesn't make sense. Like you can't just bet your top three of every day. You need to have a way to actually calculate which, what percentage ROI or what percentage edge you're looking to bet, right? So if you have, you're like okay, these three should be an edge of above one and a half percent, and that's the threshold I used to bet. So anything above one and a half percent, that's the threshold I used to bet. So anything above one and a half percent, I'm gonna bet and I'm gonna vary my bet size above that. That is more of the correct way to do so. When you're looking at betting my top three, what if you have only two plays that are good that day now you gotta bet three? And what if you have 10 plays that are good, you can only bet three? Doesn't make much sense in terms of the amounts he was. I'm not here to amount. Shame anyone. 

01:14:24
No no, no, I don't care about that On the podcast, but when he's saying like, oh, instead of betting $50 on 10 games, bet $500 on one game. 

01:14:31
Another thing that you'll find is like when you're line shopping and going around, it's significantly easier to find better numbers when you're actually betting lower amounts. So for a recreational better who is who has a bankroll of $500 or $1,000, like, definitely do not bet $500 on one play, because what you're going to find is, if you spread it out, you're going to be able to keep that money in different sports books and then from there you're going to be able to pick off better numbers at each sports book. So betting less and having more games is almost always going to be better, unless it's like a once in a lifetime type edge on a game that obviously in that scenario doesn't exist in real life. We talk about like billion-dollar flips, stuff like that. Obviously then you're going to invest a larger amount. But for almost every other scenario, it would be better to have more plays at less money and cumulative a higher ROI and higher edge, than have one play, the same ROI or even a little bit higher ROI and dunk all your money on that do you agree? 

01:15:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
agreed, regardless of what you heard in that audio. Bring it back to this tweet. When you refine the craft, you have less plays. I would say that is 100. The opposite when you refine the craft, you have more plays. You have more plays, plain and simple. If you can find more edges, that's refining the craft. When you're limiting yourself to only a few plays here and there, you're just leaving so much money on the table. What's? 

01:15:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
an opportunity to think clearly. Why is that in there at the end of the tweet? I don't know. 

01:16:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It seems very like prophetic. I don't. I actually don't know. I don't know this guy, I've never I. So people are like, people might be like well, you don't know this guy, how did you? 

01:16:09
how did you come across this? Stuff gets retweeted on my timeline all the time. Some someone likes a tweet. I see it, it's. You know, sometimes it's a cesspool and I actually had to pick from a bunch of we. Could you know? We spent half an hour on this segment. I can't even believe we spent half an hour on this segment, but yeah, I mean, this one was one that really rattled me, and then I watched the video. The video actually didn't rattle me. It actually made me laugh quite a bit because it's just full of misinformation all over the place. But I think that's it for the tweets I think that was a good debut segment big bob bangers, this guy you noticing anything there? 

01:16:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was just trying to see if he sells picks. That was it. He's from Florida. Is this Joey Toons' brother? Kind of looks like him. No. 

01:16:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know. Okay, cut that out, I don't want to offend Toons. 

01:17:00
You think you're going to offend Joey Toons? He would put you in a pretzel, though, for sure. No, no, you're not gonna offend joey tunes, trust me. All right, that's it. We're wrapping up here. For those who are watching on youtube, hit the subscribe button below, please, trying to grow the following here uh, anyone that subscribes, you'll get notifications in real time whenever an episode goes live. Boom, you get pinged. You get to watch the episode. How good is that? What a life that is okay. 

01:17:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, we are hoping to have, like I said, adam, like rob said adam, churnoff. Uh, on next week, talk some nfl. We'll talk some stuff, maybe about the canadian market, a couple other cool things, uh, and learn more about adam. He's a friend of ours that has been in the space for you know quite some time and we'll test out the first in-person studio guest via zoom. Uh, where is adam right now? 

01:17:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
west coast no, yeah, he's in like, uh, calgary, alberta. I don't think he's actually in calgary, I think he's like northern up. He posts like the temperatures where he's at I don't know even if it's inhabitable, really like polar bears die where he is from the cold so, yeah, we'll have him up on the screen and we'll go from there. 

01:18:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, everybody, thanks again for watching and listening, and we appreciate it. See you guys next week.