00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off episode number 44. 

00:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm rob azola, joined by johnny from betstamp rob, we just did four hours on the last episode or over four hours on the uh, the super bowl prop betting special. We're going to recap that one for sure today and we'll try to keep today's episode a little bit shorter, you know, just so we don't talk you guys here off again. But we hoped everyone liked the prop special episode. Numbers did quite well, Picks were positive and I hope everyone had a profitable Super Bowl as a result of listening to this show as well. 

00:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
As you know, making smart educated bets and shopping the best lines. We're going to do some Super Bowl recap today and then we're going to close off with tweets that trigger us the second edition, I believe, of tweets that trigger us. I've had a lot on the shortlist so I had to narrow it down. All the tweets in today's episode are courtesy of me and not Johnny, so he'll be seeing them for the first time later on. I'm interested to see if they trigger you before we get into it. For everyone listening out there, you don't ask for a lot. Please rate and review five stars. If you enjoy, circles off. We've got a lot of positive feedback about the props episode last week. If you do enjoy the content we produce wherever you're listening to it, please rate and review. Also, if you're a bet stamp user and you've downloaded it in the app store or on ios, please review it as well in your respective stores, as that will go a long way for us. So anyone who's out there listening, please do that. Recap of the props episode. 

01:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and we're trying to grow the youtube as well. If anyone's listening on audio. We've mentioned a few times we are on youtube right now. Um, it's been a slow, it's been a slow grind. We're trying to build it up. But uh, long form episode. We got a nice studio here, some jerseys hung on the wall and uh, you know, if you can like and subscribe on youtube as well, helps us out as well for short form education on there as well yes, and we'll be putting out more of those as well over time. 

02:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that's it for the promotional piece. To start, the picks that we gave out on the props episode just did a quick recap. There were 20 props we gave out in total which counted as the official best bets. The biggest winner goes to lay it with Luke, with the Will Jesse Bates record and interception at plus 550, which I still maintain was a terrible bet, but he won it, so I will give him credit. He's been boasting around the office this week about how that was an amazing bet. 

02:33
Overall 12 and eight for 8.05 units on everyone's best bets. That's the numbers that we gave out on the show. Overall pretty good, and when you consider that most of the loss is all centered around Cam Akers as well, if anyone avoided Cam Akers they probably had an even better Super Bowl. But I'm pretty happy with the way the episode won. Again, it wasn't about as dumb as it sounds. It wasn't about whether or not we won money. It was more about the process of making the picks, going through the process of finding the best available number whenever you're betting a Superbowl prop, um, but winning money as well helps. 

03:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
winning money as well helps, I think. Uh, like Rob said, if you listen to the rationale behind a lot of these people giving out picks, you may have picked off a few other things that you might've seen at your particular sports books, local books, things like that. And then I got to defend my pick right here. I gave out Matt Stafford anytime touchdown plus 1,000. That's a 10-1 dog. It was a QB sneak that was going to do it. We noted it on the pod. He got the QB sneak from the one. Now it didn't cash. 

03:35
A loss is a loss, but at 10-1, you got to give that process a winner right there. So I'll back up my pick. Should have won or sorry, you know, had a good shot of winning. As soon as this pod came out, actually those numbers got obliterated. He closed a lot shorter than the 10-1. And then Rob on his pick under one and a half for the shortest touchdown under one and a half yards. So basically will a one-yard touchdown be scored and that cashed the play. After the Stafford sneak, he threw it over to Cooper cup on the right side and he was able to get that one yard touchdown, but we almost cashed both in the same place. 

04:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I thought we were. I was watching it and I thought we were going to cash both on the same play. I will say I don't know if this video moved market or like the props video move market or or not, but a lot of the prices got worse closer to game time. So I do think that there are a lot of people tailing a lot of the plays that were given out. Um, the shortest td I saw up to like minus 175 on under one and a half at game time. So a lot of good closing line value there overall. 

04:38
But, um, I was kind of like disappointed with the super bowl a bit. I don't know how you felt you. You obviously were hosting a party. I was hosting a party. I had a really good mix of people cheering for the Bengals and the Rams and people cheering for different outcomes. Altogether had no real rooting interest from a game perspective. I bet some Rams minus fours and Rams money lines just like good prices and not for a lot either. But I don't know. The game just felt like, even though it was close, lackluster. I don't know if you felt the same way, I mean super bowl for me is a big sweat really, uh. 

05:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So like I don't even necessarily have every single play that I have like logged and tracked anywhere, because it's just such a rush to get money and play and get stuff in before the game. So, um, it's more just like memory, like what do I have? And obviously a lot of this stuff is logged and tracked and I can refer to it during the game. But for the most part every play I'm just like all right, did that burn me? Yes, no, okay, live. Another play, like okay. 

05:40
Like Ben Skoronek got a reception, like okay, that's a loser, like under one and a half receptions cooked. Then you know, next next play. It's like okay, now feed skoronek, because I already lost that bet. So now anything that he gets is not going to cooper cup, right, it's not going to van jefferson, like, it's not going to acres, like perfect. So it's kind of like it's a huge sweat for me. I don't actually necessarily care too much if it's like an exciting or a boring game or if it's a close game. In fact I'd rather it be like more of a blowout. So then you don't get the last second minutes. I mean obviously, um, the more, the closer the game is, typically um, the more yards there are, because at the end of the game you will have both teams trying like going for it on fourth down. Stuff like this, um, overtime would have obviously been be a killer, would have been a killer so happy that that, um, you know, didn't come in. 

06:27
But all in, I mean, listen, super bowl was fun. Uh, ended up a slight winner, um, but yeah, it's just more of a sweat. It's not even about the enjoyment of the game, like I, I don't really even it's. It's tough to say like I don't care if it's a good game or not, I just am sweating all the profits I get it. 

06:45
And even the full game. I did end up having a little bit of money on the Rams right after the AFC and NFC Championship games and the line got posted. I ended up getting the Rams for not too big of an amount, at minus 166. So that was just a great price that closed really well. So I was just a great price. That closed really really well. So I was like, okay, if one team's going to win, let it be the Rams. But that wasn't nearly anything that I was like cheering for. So in terms of the actual like closeness of the game or like them winning it on at the end, like it wasn't a big deal to me. So that's how Super Bowl is for us. 

07:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I guess the inner fan in me wanted to see just a little bit more entertainment. Like here's the thing when you think about the Super Bowl, oftentimes you're thinking these are two top five teams at the very least, if not maybe the two best teams in the league that are meeting up. It just felt like I was watching a regular, like Sunday night football game right? 

07:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, these weren't even the best teams. It's tough, but that's one game. Playoff format, of course. 

07:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, it's typically what people get. You know, a lot of my friends, when we get together during NFL playoffs, are always rooting for the underdogs, right, and I'm always there rooting for the favorites, unless I have a monetary interest in the underdog. But I'm rooting for the favorites and they're always like. Why? It's like because I want to see two borderline. You know, I don't want to say the Rams are borderline top 10 team. They're not. They're borderline top five, arguably top five. 

08:08
I think there's a case to be made that the Bengals are not even a top 10 team in football. That just went on a good run. But yeah, that was a little bit like anticlimactic for me the way that the game finished with the Bengals not being able to convert the fourth down. So just from a you know, a fan's perspective, I found it to be a little bit dull. But you talked about this. You know your the rush that you had on Sunday. Walk me through your Sunday, like when you wake up in the morning on Superbowl Sunday, are you basically in front of the computer all day, or what's going on there? 

08:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Pretty much up until the game time, with a couple of breaks. You know, you got to like just keep your sanity. Yeah, keep your sanity. Got to order the wings. But no, I actually didn't even. I didn't even order the wings this year. I just scribbled on a paper get this, and then it ended off. Someone else ordered them. 

08:56
But I think, yeah, it's a lot of betting, it's a lot of grinding. You just have to. You have to basically like know what you want coming into the sunday and then just wait for prices to appear and then um and then hit them. So it's not a huge. Uh, it's not a huge day. Like there's definitely bigger days in in sports. Uh, especially in betting, like this is a one game. You don't want to get too overexposed and place like all your money and play on one games. It's very heavily correlated, as we mentioned on the last podcast, but it was a fun sunday. And then, obviously, after the game's over, it's more just like you're just drained because it's like a long day. You just want to go to sleep and then, plus, you have like so much bad, unhealthy food at the at the game that you're just like you know what. I just need a nap. Let me sleep this all off, so it's a good. 

09:42
It was a good Sunday, though A lot of fun. What was your biggest like? Biggest bet? You sweat like biggest winner. Best winner, best loser. 

09:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the bets I was most confident in were not the ones that I was able to get down the most on. So, for example, the under one and a half yards is one that I gave out on this podcast. I loved over two and a half players to um to throw a pass, complete a pass, or throw a pass to attempt, pass, attempt pass attempt yeah which we ended up with four in the game. Arguably five depend, you know I believe it was five right, the heckers wasn't graded as a pass. 

10:13
Oh, it wasn't well I guess it depends on the book, because a lot of them graded it differently. 

10:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, it was it didn't matter that it didn't matter, that's sure. I'm sure it would have actually been graded as no. But I saw a lot of books just grade that five. 

10:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But that one I wasn't able to get down a ton on it. I ended up getting a lot on Jamar Chase under, which lost on the last drive of the game, although I will say it was kind of lucky because he did have a big catch early on and you figure, as soon as you get a big catch it's cooked, no matter what. But as soon as you get a big catch it's cooked no matter what. But it survived till the end, so it actually could have been a better day. I end up doing 6.4 percent roi on over 100 bets, but I did lose my bigger bets just because of the fact that the lines are more widely available. I did catch cooper cup under receiving yards for a lot as well, which was nice that was a good one. 

11:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, my, uh. My biggest sweat of the entire day was laying minus 1300 for multiple pops on no aaron donald mvp. And boy did I sweat that one out to the last play of the game. I think if he would have got a sack fumble at the end of the game and recovered that ball instead of, yeah, burrowing like incompletion, he may have won it, which is crazy, but even though it wouldn't have affected the game anyways and it was over, regardless of whether he sacked him or whether it was incomplete, um, but man, that was. That was crazy. Like um, he was doing nothing in the first half. He literally was not even on the score sheet, did not even have a single tackle he gets. They're like oh, he had two sacks. 

11:44
The grading on that first sack Put me into orbit because I had a big Play on Aaron Donald, no sack and the grading on that first play. Burrow scrambled Out, left Donald just like, ran after him and then Shoved him out and it was graded as a negative One yard loss. Clearly tried to run the ball. That like. The grading on that is just Whatever the ref puts like, whatever the scorekeeper puts it, as it will never change. However, that should have been a rush for a negative one instead of a sack, and if he had graded as a rush for negative, one just doesn't change. Like that's it, so that one had me in orbit and then he ended up getting the second sack. 

12:19
So I'm like, okay, at least I didn't lose that bet off that dusty sack. That just happened. That wasn't even really a sack. But then now you look at Donald's scoreboard and it's like he had two sacks and two additional tackles and then at the end of the game he ended up getting that pressure that led to the end of the game, which wasn't even considered a tackle. So really he didn't even have a great game. 

12:44
But just like the media and stuff like they put in like, oh, iron, donald might win this. Then you go on twitter and everyone's like don't give donald the mvp, so like the recency bias, because he made that play at the end. But man, I had only three players with a legit with you know any any shot of winning the mvp, and that was stafford burrow and cup and cup, I think was know. I still believe this was priced well short of what it needed to be in order for me to bet that. So, like he was, you would have only been able to get cup at around plus 700 shopping around for the best line. I would have needed probably plus 1200 to all the way, maybe a plus 12, 13, 14, 1500 to bet that. 

13:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I don't regret that, but, man, I think it's not reflected in his surface stats in terms of like the sacks and tackles, but the presence that he had on the game, his pass rush win rate and run stop win rate in that game were borderline absurd, like some of the biggest numbers you'll ever see. I think he had such a monumental impact on that game that I would have given it to him. But I will say this we had talked about Aaron Donald a little bit. I don't know if we did it on the prop show or off air, because it was a topic of conversation amongst us. 

14:00
I thought there was absolutely no value on Aaron Donald to win the MVP. Everyone was betting it beforehand. I think this kind of legitimizes my feeling that there wasn't value on there because he had such a dominant performance in my opinion and still didn't win it. And it's so hard for a defensive player to win the MVP in my opinion unless they score a touchdown. And I think the likelihood of Aaron Donald scoring a touchdown in that type of game is very low. 

14:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, true price on that would have been like minus 5,000, plus minus 5,000, true price of Aaron Donald scoring a touchdown. So compared to that, he's at minus 1,300, as was the no price I was able to get. I think you're right, though there was definitely no value in Donald, especially because the yes prices on him ended up dipping below 10 to 1, which is absurd for a defensive player. He did have a good game. He's an unbelievable player, don't get me wrong. He basically won them the super bowl on d by stepping up in the second half and getting so many pressures. 

15:01
But just proves what we were saying before it's very hard for someone who's not a quarterback to win this award. Um, and the reality of it is, stafford didn't win it in this game because he threw the two interceptions and he wasn't lights out. But had Stafford snuck that QB sneak in instead of giving it to Cup there which there's a high chance he snuck that in on his attempt there then he probably does win MVP, because it's tough to give it to Cup with only, I think, 95 yards and a touchdown around there I think he ended up with. What did Cup end up with? Was it over 100? I believe just on 92 yeah, 92 and 2. 

15:37
So you would have been at 91 and 1 had he not got that last and he's not winning with 91 and 1. I don't think he would have won with 91 and 1 and I think that would have at that point would have been stafford or maybe they they would have given it to uh to donald there. So it is what it is, I think. Think my biggest, that was my biggest sweat, best win, opening kickoff, touchback yes, I didn't give this one our prop show. 

15:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This one. By the way, I have to say of all the props I saw this year, there was so many people on different sides of this prop, Like it was one of the most widely bet that I've seen, and typically when something's really widely bet, I think a lot of people tend to agree on what the play is. This one was very drastic tons of people like no on opening kickoff. 

16:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tons like yes, everyone was talking about this prop. Yeah, I was trying to figure out how to get a little more down on this as well, um, but, uh, just had to rely on the sports books that I did have access to. But um, I think, listen, I ended up getting a plus 105 plus 100 plus 10 plus 15, anything around that range. I was just taking down, but the reality is this thing was moving. It opened at like a minus 110, minus 110 was first bet, up to minus 120 for the yes, for touchback, and that's, I think, the correct side. 

16:50
There was a lot of nonsense going on. The former punter and kickoff kickoff man for the colts, pat mcafee, who's obviously a big time call it sports betting, sports celeb, now, uh, has a contract with fanduel. He gave, he released a show and he said how, like the ball because of like of the hall of fame, and they put that ball in the hall of fame, you can't break it in and it's very hard to kick it. As far and um, he's probably just, you know, atlet, I love pat mcfee great guy, uh, great, um, sorry, not great guy. I don't know him personally. 

17:20
I thought I did meet him once at an airport, but a great entertainer for sure, uh, and I think you know he does really really cool content. But just like it wasn't really too valuable. You know, like we have a history of this, it's not like this was a first-time thing that this happened. We have a history of this and we know how many kickoffs are going to go for a touchback, and then you can actually look at the actual kickers themselves. So the two things were McAfee saying that it's tough to do that and then people seeing Matt Gay was a little bit injured and coming up short on a 47-yard field goal. 

17:55
It's just a different thing. Like, um, you saw mcpherson kicked it off and that was lucky. You know he's more likely to get the touchback than matt gay. But then, even after that, then, of the eight or nine kickoffs that took place in the game, all but one were, uh were touchbacks, and that typically does happen. So you're looking at something that, like it's the first kickoff of the super bowl, is more likely to be returned, just because if it's anywhere close, the guy's going to try to take it out and get a jolt and get a spark. But like, realistically, like half of the kickoffs are not, are are not touchbacks. It's significantly above half and obviously I dug into it and did a bunch of research on this. So, happy I can make some cash off of that one Um. 

18:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then, happy I didn't lose my shirt on the aaron donald minus 1300, although I did have a bunch of bad losers as well I will say in regards to the kicking stuff, I think a lot of people cash their bets on bengals, more field goals, bengals longest field goal. 

18:44
Um, I was doing some quick twittering, twatting, tweeting whatever, twitter searching before the um the game started, which you can get some tidbits from people who are actually at the game and posting stuff about the kickers, particularly or during commercial breaks where kickers are kicking and stuff like that. It seemed like the gay stuff, like the injury stuff, was way overblown because most people that were watching are like, yeah, this guy's kicking no problem deep into the end zone, not, not even an issue. So it didn't come to fruition because of the style of the game and, and um, the way it played out the Rams not getting into the red zone, a lot scoring touchdowns when they were there. But ultimately I think, had it been, had it come to the Rams needing a long field goal or the Rams kicking off first, I don't think the Matt Gay stuff I think there was that was like blown out of perspective going into the Super Bowl. 

19:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah. 

19:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
As is often the case, like there's two weeks for the kicker to recover as well in between games. 

19:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what I was going to say is like if you're injured one game in the NFL, like it's tough to miss the next week, like people, especially for a kicker, like he doesn't necessarily just miss one week. Usually we will go on ir and be like this guy can't kick at all, he's gonna be done or he'll play. So the fact that they didn't even bring in a single practice squad kicker or whatever or nothing, it's just like okay, he's gonna play, he's most likely fine, it's the super bowl. They would have brought in somebody else off the practice squad if they needed another kicker any regrets from your super bowl betting? 

20:07
I lost a couple stupid bets. 

20:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, not not stupid like good, good value bets, but so I think you were on the same one as Captain Jack, which is the game would not be decided by exactly three points. 

20:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I had that for sure, which I think was a great value bet honestly, what was it minus 500? 

20:24
I think I got just shot like better odds than that, wow, but yeah, that one was tough, so lost that one. Biggest pain was I also had stafford mvp um for some position there, uh, and that didn't win. The one that was the most painful was actually one of our bigger plays was tyler boyd under on receiving yards and had really good numbers there and, uh, he ended up going over. He got to 48 yards on his last catch of the game and he was previously over, so that one was a tough one. 

20:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All three Bengals receivers went over. 

20:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, Higgins went over early with that big catch which I? 

21:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
needed, but it was like pretty blatant offensive pass interference. 

21:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah. 

21:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I saw Ron Torbert, the referee after the game, released a statement saying you know it didn't fit the definition of a face mask penalty because you need to like, twist the face mask or whatever it's like. I don't care if it was a face mask or not, it's clearly offensive pass interference. Threw the guy out of the way, complete, threw Ramsey out of the way Exactly. 

21:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, when you slow that one down, it ended up looking a little worse. In real time it didn't really look as bad. It kind of just looked like ramsey slipped and, by the way, was that guy just slipping everywhere or what like he just didn't have a good game he did not and a lot of people were tweeting about him and ripping him. 

21:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Colin cowherd was one we'll get to colin cowherd later on in the show, but he was tweeting about like, does anyone give up more big plays than than jalen ramsey or whatever, and I was actually looking it up. Jaylen ramsey, the last two regular season games, has given up only one catch of 30 or more yards in the last two regular seasons no, no, he, jaylen ramsey's unbelievable. 

22:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like anyone who says jaylen ramsey isn't a good player just literally watched the last, like the tampa game where evans beat him and then they watched this game, which he didn't. He didn't have a great game and honestly he had a fine game. Like there was plenty of worse players in the game than him. It's just that Higgins catch obviously on him and then there was the other uh touchdown as well, but realistically, like Ramsey's unbelievable, he got beat by Evans and then he just got beat by Higgins there and then a controversial call there. But he's a good player. He just didn't up playing that good. I think even on the last play of the game there Burrow had Ramsey beat as he slipped down but obviously Donald got to him. That could have been like actually a touchdown. 

22:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Burrow didn't play well, let's be honest. I mean a lot of times especially the fourth down conversions, third down conversions later on in games missed wide open receivers. It's almost like he he knew who he was throwing to before the play even happened, which is the tendency for some quarterbacks. I can't remember a run in sports where I think somebody has played mediocre is not the right word because he's above average in the playoffs but the way that people talked about Joe Burrow in these playoffs and, by the way, I'm a big Joe Burrow fan I think Joe Burrow is going to be like an elite level quarterback one day. I don't think he's there yet and I think the way that he was talked about was like he was there and that it was, you know, all him leading Cincy to the Super Bowl, and I was like I'm thinking back on these playoffs what did Joe Burrow really do in these playoffs? 

23:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like I don't know. I wasn't following it as closely, but okay, like the Raiders. 

23:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The Raiders game right played fine, I would say, but it still came down to the last possession where the raiders literally had a fourth and goal from the nine yard line or whatever, to try to tie the game. Tennessee takes nine sacks. They win the game on the backs of the defense. If we're being honest, three interceptions for the defense in that game. The chiefs that's probably his best game of the playoffs, which is a second half comeback played one really bad half of football didn't look good in the first half. This super bowl. Now I get it. His offensive line stinks, completely understand it. But um, yeah, it's, it's. I can't remember a time where someone was as praised as they were for a run where I didn't really feel like they played that particularly well. 

24:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know what's funny is Joe Burrow. Basically like he, he got to the Superbowl. Don't get me wrong. He was, he was great, he got to the Superbowl. But like they were so like all of these games were like, were such close games that, like the Bengals being out in the first round, no one would have said anything. 

24:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When it was the Bengals lost first round, no one would have actually said they played four coin flip games and they but yeah, and they won all four coins, almost won four coin flip games. Yeah, but that's what I'm saying. It's like I the the praise, I don't. 

24:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't really get everyone I know was like over on sacks, rams over on sacks like they're gonna. They're gonna sack him so many times and typically when that happens is when you want to look to bet the under, not gonna lie if every single person, every media member, well, also ignoring the number. 

25:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is what I was, so I don't mind. If everybody's all on the same side, it's one thing, but you very rarely see a sack total in a game of five and a half. For those who play prop on props on a weekly basis, you're seeing a lot of three and a half juiced over, four and a half juiced under. You don't see a ton of five and a half and people were just betting five and a half like it was free money. Turned out that it was that's what I'm saying. 

25:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's crazy how and and what's funny is I was also. I had bets on the over on sacks like that. Like never would I've ever expected to be this much, with public, every media member, everyone doing it. But that's just where I think the value was and it ended up cashing. It's crazy Rams got did they get seven sacks? They got seven. 

25:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, Because I was doing Andy. Andy Mulliter was on with me. 

25:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He almost won his bet on that last Donald Wow. 

25:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I almost bet. I actually I should have bet that and I just forgot to bet it Like I was in a rush to get off. Um, it was saturday night. Captain jack, who's been on the circles off podcast with us before uh, was hosting like a super bowl live stream where he brought on a bunch of people at um at different times. Me and johnny were both on, but I I started the show, johnny was on towards the end and everyone was giving out their best prop bet and um, you know who they liked for the super bowl and I was on with and Andy Molitor, who's from the Deep Dive podcast. I like Andy quite a bit. He's a funny dude, but you know he's basically like you know what? 

26:18
Two weeks ago we saw Tennessee get nine sacks against the Bengals. You can get over eight and a half sacks at 40 to one. This is like the biggest mismatch imaginable in terms of a defensive line against the offensive line. I'm going to bet it and early on felt like the Bengals O-line was holding up, but then, once the Rams D-line got going, holy jeez, I thought that was a lot. I really thought he was going to get it. Yeah. 

26:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I thought so too. It fell apart. Okay, that's enough on Super Bowl. Good recap. I hope everyone cashed their bets here. Sorry about that Stafford over on the rushing touchdown really wish we could have cashed that one and I really hope anyone. If you tailed late luke with the jesse bates pick, send in a screener, send in a screenshot, send in something. He's gonna be fired up first off and the the better part would be if nobody tailed him, and that was the only pick that didn't tail and that was the biggest winner on the show. Obviously, you know five and five and a half or six to one, depending what you get it then it Then like what a shame, but send them in. I want to see if anyone tailed them. 

27:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The second that I me and Julian were sitting here critiquing all the picks. The second that I trashed that pick, I'm like there's no way I would ever bet this. That should have been a clear cut signal to anyone listening that they should have immediately bet that prop, because that's just the way my life works and as soon as I trash something like that, it's bound to hit. I came close to actually betting no interception on that, at minus 650 or whatever it was. 

27:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, let's bang out these tweets that trigger me. I've never seen any of these, yet I haven't read them, so this is going to be news to me. Let's see what we got here. 

27:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad. I get peeved. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? It's only a game. Why do you have to be mad? 

28:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That last one makes me die of laughter. For people that don't know, that's Ilya Brijgalov, who used to be a goalie in the NHL. I believe he was with the Anaheim Ducks at the time of that Was he with the Ducks, the Flyers. At the time of that. He was with the Flyers when he recorded that. Okay. 

28:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, was he ever on the Ducks? 

28:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'm pretty sure he was with the Ducks. Oh, he was with D the office today as well, but that was when Chris Pronger didn't want to be in Edmonton anymore. They didn't want to be on the Oilers and people were interviewing Rizgala for some reason, asking him about. You know what Chris Pronger says and he's basically like you know, why would anyone want to live in Edmonton? 

28:50
He's like it's a minus a 37 outside every day. Live in edmonton. He's like it's a minus a 37 outside every day why you have to be so mad. It was the funniest interview. I suggest anyone who has not seen that that's one of the best of all time, right up there with chan ho park. Do you remember this one at all? You never seen the chan ho park interview? That's when he uh he had like a bad start and people were asking him about it after the game and he's just like a diarrhea, like diarrhea. It's like Paul Pierce, Paul Pierce. Another one. I've never seen that. 

29:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh it's so funny. 

29:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those are the two of the best ever Ilya Brzgalov and Chanho Park. For anyone who wants to check them out, maybe we'll actually link to them in this YouTube as well for anyone who wants to see it. All right, zach, let's get to. I don't even remember what's in this rotation of tweets here, so we'll get to the first one. Oh yes, okay, this is from the Degenerates. 

29:42
At DGen underscore betting, nba favorites are 27 and 2 against the spread the last four days. Something to keep in mind tonight. Watch for overcorrections and be smart with NBA tonight, because Vegas will try to trap us. I hate the trap tweets. They really bother me every single time because there is nothing that Vegas is specifically doing that is trapping anyone in any way. They are just balancing money and they are managing money Because favorites are covering does not mean that they are all of a sudden just going to pick randomly on the fifth day to increase the spread on every single favorite in order for everyone else to go out and bet the underdog in the game. I mean, it's this stuff like this that just really aggravates me, because it's based off of nothing. It's just like a random sample size of four days and then it's like oh, be careful out there when you go place your bets, because all this is happening now, vegas is going to, they're on to you, they're on to what's happening now and they're going to make you. 

30:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're going to make you fall into this trap, johnny, I don't even know what to say to that, like because I also pulled up this guy's profile and or, sorry, not this guy's profile, but the bio is three college friends turn pro cappers. This is such a non-pro thing to say and I don't want to spread hate and critique people, but this guy is selling selling pics, which is tough to see, because this, right now, this tweet, is just so not valuable, like the ability to actually see that a the trends that you're looking at are not valuable is the first point in becoming a professional, and the second point in becoming a professional is understanding what actually moves the line, and this guy clearly, or this group of guys clearly, do not understand either of those two concepts. So, uh, yeah, tough to see. This is, uh, probably not someone I would be looking to buy picks off of, for sure, and I will say vegas trapping somebody is tough, because the only time you get trapped in Vegas is when you go there and you get absolutely buckled and then end up somewhere else, that's, you're not getting trapped by the bookmaker. 

32:03
Jeff Benson over at Circa is not trapping everyone, anyone by, you know, laying a different line and then making you bet it. It is what it is. The line is a line. It's based on where it's being moved by the money that's coming in and the bookmaker reacting to that. So there's no, oh, they're going to make you bet the favorites because of that. If there was an influx of money coming in on one side and then it moved the other way, oftentimes the bookmakers would be taking a bet, potentially to balance action to get one back. But that's not a trap, it has nothing to do with a trap. 

32:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think a lot of times and this is not exactly related to this tweet or not mentioned in it specifically, but a lot of times people that can't understand why a line is a certain way, they just equate that to being a trap. Like I cannot understand how this team is favored by six. They must be trapping me in some capacity and that's usually a telltale sign that that person is not worth following and it's probably not a winning better long-term if they can't understand how a line can reach um a certain way in the sport that they're covering so um frustrating, covering so um frustrating. We move on. Number two this one, I just I, this one, I laughed really hard. Um girl next door VIP tweets. Uh oh, actually we'll go back, we'll skip, we'll skip back, that's fine. Let's go with the disorder. 

33:29
Colin Coward, this was the week a week one, johnny, rest in peace to your uh, your 49ers um calcutta, I felt bad for you there. Colin coward tweets this is a twofold. Both of these tweets triggered me independently. Too many people love the niners to upset the cowboys. I did too. Now it feels too trendy all week cowboys, staff and players hearing they'll get upset. 

33:54
Great motivation, this one, for it's an nfl playoff game. Why are we expected to believe that one team is more motivated than the other and that you should no longer bet something because other people like it? The niners beating the cowboys that week has nothing to do with why this tweet triggered me. This is like in real time. I'm jotting this down. So week has nothing to do with why this tweet triggered me. This is like in real time. I'm jotting this down. So it has nothing to do with him being wrong, completely wrong, or just not betting what he thought was going to be a winning bet because other people liked it, which is a lesson in and of itself. The fade, the public stuff, is complete nonsense, but chalking it up to the narrative of too many people like it, so it's great motivation for the other team, I think is one of the biggest reaches imaginable by a media personality. 

34:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think every or the majority of NFL players who are in a playoff game, that's like within a spread of three Listen, if you're in the regular season and you're the Kansas City Chiefs and you're playing the Jets, you know you listen. If you're in the regular season and you're the Kansas City Chiefs and you're playing the Jets, like you know you're going to crush them, like you don't. But anyone else when you're playing, you're playing for a game Like you're like hey, they don't. Even most of the guys on the team wouldn't even know what the minus three means or is or in terms of a spread. So yeah, I don't think that would would matter too much. 

35:18
I, I know even I've heard players talk about that a lot and they they even sometimes say like yeah, we, we got up, like we're gonna upset them because like we're the lower seed. You hear this a lot in march madness, with some players who don't necessarily know betting and most time they're under. You know the age of that anyway, so they shouldn't be betting. But you'll hear someone be like we're the nine seed and we just upset. It's like you were three and a half point favorites in the game. You did not upset anybody just because you were the lower seed, it doesn't mean anything. So I think, even with a lot of these, I wouldn't. I would never, ever say the players are not are motivated more because they're because what people are? 

35:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
twitter like our who's pick, like it's too trendy. Don't ignore what other people think. 

35:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like it doesn't matter. It's such good engagement, though that's another thing, like how many people just interact with this guy because he puts out hot takes. 

36:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, that's part of what he does and has done for a long time. 

36:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I love the Niners, but too trendy, so too trendy. 

36:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know it's great motivation. What's the second one here? The second one I actually like this guy a lot, justin Woodcock. He's tweeted me before, dm'd me before. This is not a segment to rip on people, it's to talk about. It's like kind of an educational spin on this. We do rip on people sometimes. You know I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but Justin Woodcock at Positive EV Play responds to this Colin Cowher tweet. 

36:36
The status of Trent Williams is a big question come Sunday. He's not worth anything on the spread, but still a major key for San Francisco. This one really got to me because if he was a major key for San Francisco, he would be worth something on the spread. This is something very. I hear this a lot and it really really bothers me, like it drives me crazy. In any sport it's like this guy, like he's really really important for this team, but if he's out the line's going to stay the same. Well then, he's not important for this team. 

37:09
And, by the way, trent Williams, if he doesn't play a game is moving the spread. I should. It's not that he's not worth anything on the spread. He's the best left tackle in the game. It's moving the spread, but if someone is up. This is actually like a really good process and I know a lot of people who bet sports. They model at like a team level, but it's very hard for them to account for what an individual's worth and they just use the market reaction so like if LeBron James is out. They and they just use the market reaction so like if LeBron James is out. They know how much the market moves. They jot that down for next time LeBron James is out. They have a rough estimate, right? The reality is, if a player is not worth anything on the spread, they cannot be a major key for that team. 

37:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yep, you're 100% right. I think it's just a contradiction contradiction there, but I think the more the bigger error in this tweet is that trent williams is actually worth something to the spread. But yeah, uh, outside of that, I think you're right. Like a lot of people see bigger name guys that don't move the spread and they they expect it to move, like one example. This is like the ultimate nba example chris stapps, porzingis okay, this guy has been legitimately a negative to his team based on the spread, like based on the market number in the NBA. He's actually a negative. He's not moving If he's ruled in or out. He's literally moving the spread to zero and in some cases there's playback against him the opposite way. 

38:33
Yeah. So like sometimes it'll be like Porzingis, like he's a good player, like, oh, poor zingas is out. They'll look at his stat sheet, I think, maybe because he was somewhat good and earlier in his career it just has like a big name. But the raptors almost traded for him. I was going to lose it. I'm like do not trade, for this guy's will be literally the worst trade of all time. They have to give up an additional first round pick as well. Uh, I was like this guy's trash and you could see by the market number. Um, of course, just referring to the market number, I don't actually like model out the stuff for the nba and see like who's worth to whatever, but that is how the market reacts and it's usually right. So I think, uh, that's another good one to just note is you're right, if the player is valuable to the team, he will be valuable to the spread. If he's not valuable to the team, he will not be valuable to the spread. End of story. All right, what we got. 

39:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, this is the one I was referring to before Girl Next Door VIP and that's why I don't bet the coin toss. This happened right after the coin toss. I have no idea what this is referring to, but the immediate response by Ryan Baldonado I like that name. I faded the public wanting tails. Lol. I pulled your move, fade the public and then she responds nice Glad I could help without trying. 

39:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is how are you fading the public on the coin toss? 

39:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
this is one of the saddest ones I think I've ever seen, because this guy honestly probably believes in the fade the public, right? I mean, he's been fed this a lot. You can tell um went and bet minus 110, presumably on the other side of a coin flip because too many people were betting one side. And then she follows up with glad I could help without trying, like, at least tell this guy, like, even if you believe in the fade the public strategy, okay, let's say I'm buying all in on the fade the public, at least have the courtesy to tell this guy like I wouldn't do it on a 50-50 coin flip. 

40:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I agree. Fyi for everyone listening fade the public in its entirety is actually a legitimate strategy, but it just gets misused. When people say fade the public, they're looking at action network betting percentage. That's not fade the public. What fade the public they're looking at like action network betting percentage. That's not fade the public. 

40:57
What fade the public is is if there is an influx of people who are going to be betting a specific event and that is going to take a specific number out and you could directly tie it to that, then yes, fade the public does work. A hundred percent is a good strategy because the public who is not graded as sharp is moving a number a specific way and then other people now have the opportunity to bet that back the other way at an inflated price. That works okay. Definitely doesn't work on something uh like a coin toss where there is no sharp money coming in and what's even funnier is is uh, spanky gave out an angle on the coin toss on jack's live stream he was joking, he was, but his angle for those who weren't listening to that is he said he's got his lock of the century. 

41:42
At Caesars Sportsbook they were dealing plus 100 on either side of the coin toss. Now that's amazing, right, because you can now just gamble on that and not pay any VIG if you wanted to. So you got plus 100, plus 100. Pick heads, pick tails, bet both. So you got plus 100, plus 100. Pick heads, pick tails, bet both if you want. You're not losing any money in expected value, assuming the coin toss is 50-50. So if this person did bet the coin toss, by the way, and they got plus 101, phenomenal bet, phenomenal bet. You know you got a locked in ROI, but I'm assuming it did not get plus 101. 

42:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're making an assumption here, but based off of the comment, it seems like a person that wasn't going to get probably laid at least minus 104, at least so bare minimum. 

42:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So spanky zango was. He said when there's a commemorative coin, this, the side that is on top, the heavier side, something like that will usually land down. And the coin that's on top and it's a commemorative coin and it's not necessarily there's like a different thing for tails because it's like the super bowl logo, so then that heavier side is that and it's going to land on the bottom. So he's like pick tails, pick head, sorry, and he, he won that bet. Now I doubt spanky actually bet that. Um, but his logic behind it was in the worst, worst possible case you're 50, 50 because it's plus 100, and he's right, and in the best case you might have a slight edge. So anyone who bet the coin toss at plus 100 or better, kudos to you. At least you shopped around and got the price. You basically just gambled with zero edge and zero downside, so you made a bet. 

43:11
That is for fun but we preach this, yeah, so we preach line shopping do it if you got, if you could have got the coin toss at plus 101 phenomenal bet. But so I'm not even ripping on betting the coin toss, but 100. There's no edge in fading the public on a coin toss. And also, where was it listed that the public was on? 

43:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that's what I want to know like, what is it like? Maybe at a super bowl party everybody was like what is the definition of the public wanting? Tales books normally need heads for the top, for the toss I have seen some books, though, that will like shade to one side, like heads will be minus 108, tails minus 104. 

43:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, and that was just because of their liability. 

43:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're trying to balance things out. 

43:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's never like. It's never like they need heads so badly that they're offering plus 101 on heads Now. 

43:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did consult for offshore sportsbooks for years. I know that there was always a liability on one side, so there is something. 

44:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What was it Tails? 

44:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
though I don't remember I'm going to ask. Adam Burns from BetOnline would know he would be a good person to reach out to. I will get this answer for us at some time, because it is very common for the sports book to have a liability on one side. I believe it's tails like. Tails never fails, I feel like. But regardless, it doesn't matter. It is a coin toss. Where you are paying, I mean, you're not necessarily. You can line shop and find plus 100s or whatever, but if you're laying big on a coin toss, the who the public is on doesn't matter. There's no, there's no fixed coin. There's no call from vague who, who, uh, who tossed the coin? I can't even remember it was um, what's, uh, what's her name? Ah, name's eluding me. Anyways, there's no, there's no fix. Here on the coin where you know it's like I was, I was, this actually didn't even. And that's why I don here on the coin where you know like I was, I was, this actually didn't even. 

44:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And that's why I don't bet the coin toss, because Vegas fixed it and they needed heads and they got the heads. 

45:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Unbelievable, this actually didn't really trigger me that much. I just laughed uncontrollably for a long time. 

45:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
At least it wasn't something like this, though the sharp money came in on tails. That would have been we're going to get to, to, we're gonna get to that shortly okay, I think, okay, I think that's our last one, is it? 

45:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
no, it's not. That it's not that it's not as good as that. I wish I could find something like that. I'm not specifically looking for this stuff. By the way, I should note that this is stuff that's either comes across my timeline someone else likes it, I see it or is directly sent to me. Now a lot of people directly send me tweets that they know are going to make me angry, but, um, it accomplishes the goal like 25 of the time, hit the next one, zach next up the girl was uh, billy jean king billy jean king. 

45:45
Yes, yeah, forgot. I can't believe I forgot that. I mean I was. 

45:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I was pretty toasted by the time superbowl like do you ever watch the show off around the horn? Yeah, around the horn, the Horn. Tony Reale yeah, he's like Reale. He just like at the end of the episode he's going to be like all right, he's the stat checker. 

46:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah he mailed it at the beginning, Like when Around the Horn first started. Reale was finding like so many. For PTI. He was finding like five or six errors a day. His own show. He completely mailed it in on. 

46:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's gonna be like at the end it's gonna be like uh, cooper cup had 91 yards it was re-graded. 

46:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, all right, no one's off limits. Two people that I like quite a bit, both with a very, very similar take, which I want to talk about, because this one actually really bothers me. So we have sports dogma, who we've met at MIT. Sloan Sports Analytics hung out with this guy think he's a great dude, no issues with him whatsoever. Somebody asked him if there's a I can't remember what game he was referring to, but this is. Is it a play at minus three and a half? He says certainly not the number that I want, all things considered, but in the wild card round it's basically pick the winner, cover or underdog win straight up. 

47:01
And then we have Clev TA, who I've talked to many times before. I think it's Cleve TA, is it? Yeah, he's in Cleveland. I don't know how it's pronounced. I don't know how it's pronounced. Like this guy, I think he is a great follow. Follow on twitter puts out a lot of interesting content. Uh, in general, um, he talked. He's replying to matt landis, um, who um is in the podcast space as well, with props and hops. Really good host end of the show. 

47:27
Yep, tipped a. You know, went through a thread of a bunch of super bowl stuff to pay attention to Cleve TA, cleve, ta, whatever responds and says. Good stuff overall, but I don't agree with the. If you like the Bengals in the Superbowl, take the points and if you like the Rams, take money line. No dog under six has ever covered and not one Pick. The winner in the Superbowl has also covered 46 times. I'd lay points with the rams or take bengals outline as a favorite. 

48:00
I'm not pointing this one out because of the result of the super bowl. Yeah, these were selected long beforehand. The result has nothing to do with it. But I don't like when people look back at what are essentially small sample sizes in a lot of cases, because we're talking about wild card round in the nfl over the course of years, or even the super bowl, which is, in the grand scheme of things, 46 games, is not going to tell you a whole lot about anything, but assume that this stuff has predictive value going forwards. Here's the thing about the spread in the nfl. The spread is the spread. 

48:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And it changes as well. It does change. 

48:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And, on top of it, what tends to happen in the playoffs a lot of times in the wildcard round in the Super Bowl. I mean going back to 2010,. There's been no Super Bowl with a favorite of more than four and a half points. So generally, yes, when it's tighter like that, the point spread is not going to come into play a whole lot. But then you get a situation like this year where a point spread does come into play. These things are different markets. They're mutually exclusive markets, right, and at the end of the day, what really bothers me is when people cite because these are essentially trends and they think that there's some sort of predictiveness in these trends going forwards, and the reality is that there is not. 

49:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, yeah, this one I'll just say flat out and, like Rob mentioned, I actually like both of these people as well, so it's nothing against actual people tweeting them, just trying to give our take on this. I think both these are just flat out incorrect and it's not really even like a debate. So the point spread is just exactly what rob said. The spread is the spread. The price is the price. The purpose of the spread is so that each team, over a million simulations, will land 50, 50 on either side of that spread and that is the most efficient indicator we have, that of where this game will be. When you come to the super bowl, you get a ton of money in game will be when you come to the super bowl, you get a ton of money in here and there's a lot of people that are willing to play back. When you go to like the afc and nsc championship rounds, same deal, the, the limits are higher, meaning that if anything, it's more efficient versus less efficient for those, those afc and nsc championship games in the regular season, just efficient. So reality is the spread is there basically to ensure that there's 50, like 50% of the time one team will cover, 50% of the time the other team will cover. Now that spread changes throughout the week as well, based on new information and other things like that. So I don't think you could ever. 

50:32
Now, I'm not saying you don't have an edge on that. I'm not saying your model or someone's model says that the Bengals' alt line is not a good price. That's not what we're saying. It may be a good price. Well, I think what Rob and I are both saying is the spread is the spread. It doesn't matter if the last 50 Super Bowls have only come. That's irrelevant, correct. And on top, what really you should be actually looking at if you wanted to complete this and say this is analysis is how many times, when the spread is four and a half, which is the game spread does the favorite lose or does sorry, does the favorite win and not cover? And you will get that answer. Now we sound like losers saying this now because obviously what happened was the Rams did win and they did not cover. 

51:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would say this I'll be completely honest If the Rams had won and covered this Super Bowl or the Bengals had covered an alt line, this tweet would still be here. It's not affecting my judgment on, because you hear this in the regular season all the time, right, nfl regular season. I cannot tell you, I don't know when this became a thing, but people starting to say, well, just pick the winner of the NFL game and bet them on the spread because the winner covers the game X percent of the time. I don't even know what it is Right and it's like okay, but why don't we break this down by buckets of like the point spread for one? Because I'm sure that if you have a 14 point spread, then what do you tell me? You're never going to bet the underdog because you're not picking them to win the game. Like. 

52:03
I don't understand the logic in that sometimes and how people just start to to think with these blanketed statements like if you make a game, it like extreme example here. But when people say, oh, just pick the winner in the regular season and bet that bet they're going to cover the spread, whatever, 90% of the time, whatever the number is Okay. Well, what? If I like a 14 point underdog, I make them a seven point underdog. Am I supposed to just bet the other side, cause I think they're going to win? Or am I supposed to lay off my bet, even though I have a significant amount of value? 

52:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like I don't understand the logic behind a lot of these yeah, to be clear, he's even saying here, like in this round of the playoffs. But what what's basically not being factored in is the spread changes throughout. So the spread is always the spread, no matter if it's regular season, super bowl, afc championship game or preseason, it doesn't matter. The spread is a spread. It's designed there for a reason and everybody has the same chance to bet on either side and shape that market to where it is today. 

53:00
So it is absolutely not bet the winner, whoever you think's gonna win, just bet the winner. Because, hey, then guess what? I'm always gonna be betting, every single time, the favorite, because there's no scenario in which I personally think an underdog I mean, look, maybe you're. Maybe you're going to say, okay, plus someone is plus 105. I'm like, okay, I have them as minus 101. Sure, but outside of that small scenario, there's no way I'm ever going to think, if an NFL team is a four point dog, I am never going to have them as the favorite in the game, I'm never going to have them as more likely to win that game. It's impossible, right? If you have a model that has them to win the game, then your model is also wrong. So I think, just in reality, like you can't ever make a blanket statement about hey bet the winner and and that's it. Like just pick the winner because no pick pick, pick. 

53:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who's gonna cover the spread? 

53:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, not pick the winner, like, if you're, if you're betting the money line, pick the winner exactly and also pick the winner based on the probability they have to win that game. But anyways, uh, yeah, that's, these are tough to read and I think, uh, what's even more tough is, like you know, both these people are, I think, are actually pretty sharp I would actually suggest following both of these people. 

54:05
They do have. They do have good, uh, big followings and they're they're, um, usually given out. I know cleve ta as well. I've been a follower of his for a while and he does give out a lot of cool information, specifically on the NFL. So, once again, this is nothing against the actual people in the tweets. Maybe we can even consider blurring them out if if it ends up being an issue. But I think you know, realistically it's all just going to be about providing information to our listeners that we feel is incorrect and at the end of the day, we're not always going to be right 100% of the time, but on this one we are. 

54:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think at some point in time I would even consider having both these on circles off, and I would even be willing to reference these. Okay. So I'm so Done deal. We'll consider that going forward. Hit it for the last one. 

54:49
This one yeah, this one is the was crazy and it's the most simple of tweets. Okay, what game is this for bucks eagles first round of the playoffs? Matt perot at sports, talk matt. So why did the line go from minus eight and a half to minus seven this morning? Very, you know, um you know. Innocuous question, so to speak. Try and understand the line movement in the game. Jared smith verified, uh, jared lee smith, sharp in quotations money. These are the ones that drive me absolutely insert absurd. 

55:27
So to those who are listening, he's saying in quotation marks, sharp money like he's mocking like lol sharp money this is an an NFL playoff game on game day where the entire market moves from minus 8.5 to minus 7. You might not agree with that move. You might say you know what? It's crazy. In hindsight looks like a bad market move Eagles get blown out in the game by the Bucs but when people rag on sharps rather than kind of respecting the market, it drives me insane. Do you know the amount of money and market respect that you need to have in order to move an nfl line? Uh, one and a half points on game day, especially in the playoffs. Especially in the playoffs Like this is when a sports book sets a line and let's be real here we got like three sports books in the world that are actually moving the entire market right, or at least in North America, I should say. 

56:31
They get to profile every single person that plays at their book. Anytime you place a bet with a sports book, you're giving them access to information and over time they can build up a profile on whether or not you're a winning bettor. You're not a winning bettor, break even whatever. They know everything about you based off of your wagers, and they've probably bucketed you into some sort of group In order to move a line like this on nfl. 

57:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's very, very likely, extremely likely, that whoever did this is a long-term winner in the sport, and very well respected and probably bet a significant amount of money on this yes, so when people mock the sharp money movement it's like come on like really, they also mock it based on the result, which is hilarious because the guy who's betting the guy or girl who is betting this and has that market respect and is betting an nfl straight line moving the entire market one and a half points, definitely betting money well into seven figures that person on this bet is probably expecting to earn one to one and a half to 2%, which means that they have they're, they're betting that, okay, I'm going to turn over, you know, 2 million here at 1% and there's my ROI on this. 

57:52
That person is not expecting to win this game A hundred percent of the time. The people who are commenting sharp money oh, it's like the sharps are moving this they don't even like and thinking it's all a hoax. They don't realize that the amount that, like this guy, basically thinks he's 1% better than the market, he expects to win this 1% more than expected value, meaning this is still roughly a coin flip to them. Right, and it's a spread. It's roughly a coin flip, so not like whatever. A large percentage of the time I don't know how to quantify this, I guess I could calculate it but a large percentage of the time their bet is going to lose and then a slightly higher percentage of the time their bet is going to win and that is how the edge is determined. So by saying, oh, bucks blew him out, this was hilarious. What a bad call. 

58:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it doesn't matter one game on this specific game at this time, there's three sportsbooks that are taking six figure bets on the game and letting you rebet and rebet so at any point anyone could have came in on the minus seven that it moved to and move the market back the other way again. The sportsbook has access to all the betting information. They feel extremely confident in the number at the time that the game is going off. Extremely confident because they continue to raise limits and raise limits. So I get it. There's people who have good nfl seasons that actually might outperform, let's say, a sharp, quote-unquote sharp over the course of a year or whatever. But the reality is that these sports books have full visibility on what's going on and can set their number based off of the best information possible, which is who is betting these games and what is their bet history and how do they fare. 

59:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, who's betting it? How much are they betting and how much are they up with us lifetime and how much and what sports do they win on? 

59:48
Exactly, and what time do they place bets and how do they fare when they place a bet at this time in the game and are they moving? It's like literally time in the game and are they moving? It's like literally. Ah man, it's tough. The more you know and then you realize, the more the less you know. When you start learning a little bit about it, then you realize it's all above my head. I don't even know, like I don't know shit about this. You know what I mean. I know a little bit. That make made me realize that I don't know shit. If, if that makes sense to anyone it. 

01:00:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I think back to the episode we did with mike craig, which I wish we got that on video, was pre-video but was one of my favorite episodes that we did, because he's like more of an underground pro. 

01:00:22
Better, right, not a lot of, didn't have a huge following on twitter, barely even used twitter, whatever. Good, good dude. But he talked about how, you know, when he used to bet, he'd line shop all the sports books and whenever his, whenever pinnacle was offering the best price or bet Chris or whatever he's like, those bets always lose, like and it, and it just goes to show like those are the sports books that have access to the most information, it, but there's actually maybe an argument to be made that you should never bet it, but the reality is that they have the best information on the planet. So I don't like when this the people are mocked or, um, like market makers are mocked, like they're making the market Like I don't, I don't understand, um. So for me, I'll play against these numbers. Sometimes numbers move the direction I didn't go like, I didn't expect, and I'll say you know what I think is a valuable bet at this point, but I will never really blame the sports book or be like oh, what the hell is this sharp money type of thing. 

01:01:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
um, because they're privy to so much information that we're not privy to and I brought this up before as well which is one thing that's crazy is the person who's moving the market by betting millions of dollars, or the group or whatever that's going to be continuously popping these bets over and over again at 100K, 500k, whatever it might be limit. If that group does not have an edge, they will start losing and then they will dry up their own bankroll and then say, hey, we no longer have an edge on this because we just dried up, we just lost X amount of millions this half season. Either they will stop betting that and then, therefore, another maker will then come in, or somebody else who does have an edge, who is not max popping, will start building up their bankroll and then start max popping and that'll have more respect. So whoever has the most money can move the market the most. Most money, most respect moves the market the most. 

01:02:23
However, that changes based on who has the edge. If you don't have an edge and you have a lot of money, you lose money and that money goes to the person who does have an edge that doesn't have a lot of money and you just flip, you, flip, flop. So, yes, there's obviously scenarios in which this isn't a hundred percent, and groups could obviously be betting other sports and crushing other sports and then dunking money back on nfl or something like that and still moving the market and not realize it, because they're up x millions in mlb and nba and nhl and then they ended up. They ended up dunking money on NFL. So it's, it's possible. You know there's a lot of other scenarios that are like one house, but for the most part the efficient market hypothesis works quite well and I think in general people, if they learn how to respect that, would just become so much more intelligent, betters and they'd make so much more money. 

01:03:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a reason that roughly 99% of bettors lose, and it's just a lot of the stuff that goes on in. You know, whether you're Googling betting information or you're on Twitter or any other social media a lot of the stuff out there. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense and if you take really a step back and really try to understand it, there's a lot of valuable lessons to be learned. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense and if you take really a step back and really try to understand it, there's a lot of valuable lessons to be learned there. But I think we've talked about it before. 

01:03:42
Respect of the market is an important one, plain and simple. That doesn't mean that you know there's variance over the course of an entire season. People don't account for that. Oh, you know like the market moves on sunday morning in the nfl this year have been garbage. If you bet the other way, you would have made money. Okay, keep betting the other way for the rest of your life. Tell me what's going to happen. You know what I'm saying? It's um, it's just like nonsensical in a in a lot of ways. 

01:04:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know and you know what people should also do just to realize variance and most of our listeners are people who are sharper bettors. But, like, if you don't understand variance, like, literally, just do a your own experiment and flip a coin 100 times. You think 100 times is a huge sample size, right? Flip it 100 times. A coin should in theory be 50 50. Flip it 100 times and see what you end up getting. Just you you may get like the likelihood is one side is going to be significantly higher than the other. So what if you get a 60, 40, over a hundred sample size? Now are you going to say that heads is more favored? No, you're not right, it's just. This is how you can understand really what true variance is. Like a hundred flips, anything could happen. Now flip it a million times and see what the results are on a percentage basis And'll end up with that. 

01:04:56
So even if someone says this team is nine and one in their last 10 first off, those 10 games don't matter, because it's not the same thing, because it's not the same independent coin flip, but also it's only 10 games. So even if it was the same thing, they won all 10. It also doesn't, doesn't even matter. But this is just math stuff. It's quite boring. I think this was a good episode. I'm definitely down to close it off right now and hope to be back with a nice banger next week. And then we've got a couple real cool guests. We got a couple real cool guests lined up in the future. 

01:05:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We do Good episode. It's been episode 44 of Circles Off. Again, please rate and review if you can, and if you haven't subscribed on YouTube yet, please give us a subscription. Hit that subscribe bell or notification button, whatever it is, just hit it. We're trying to grow it. 

01:05:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And send us your Jesse Bates interception anytime interception screenshot so we can show him the layout. Luke Shout out layout. 

01:05:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Also, rob was right, rizgalov was with Anaheim. It was after Chris Pronger Was traded there from Edmonton and he was talking about the weather and he said why you have to be mad. It's only game, it's freezing. It snows for 8 months of the year. 

01:06:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, he's completely right, but I appreciate that. That's the Tony Reale of our show, zach. Fact of the day. Fact of the day. Thank you for listening. We'll talk to everyone, or, yeah, we'll talk to everyone next week. 

01:06:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, see you guys.