00:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to episode number 49 of circles off. I'm rob bazzola, joined by johnny from betstamp. This intro music it I know it's just a stock intro track. We never had any say or the over this or whatever our producer picked it it's amazing. 

00:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's really just the stock intro music that came with the soundboard we got for the production it's just like I'm musically inclined. 

00:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've played an instrument for most of my life. It's just octaves, right, it's like building it's but it's it's so good, but you made one for. 

00:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You made one for spanky's bet bash a little guitar solo. You can't make us an intro. Rob's got to. You made one for Spanky's Bet Bash, a little guitar solo. You can't make us an intro. Rob's got to record us an intro for this. 

00:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually just want to make a metal version of this intro and add a sick drum track in the background. That really gets me fired up. 10 out of 10. There's always room for improvement on anything, but this intro definitely a 9.5 out of ten. At the bare minimum you ever made a call on skype I've made calls on skype before. 

01:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, you know. Do you know the sound it makes when you call it? 

01:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
absolutely, that's the one right absolutely slap. Oh, that the skype one is good. Okay, wait let me play it well. Yeah, that that is the skype one is really good. I'm trying to think if I can find, I think of something else that really resonates with me in terms of uh, but the fact that I even remembered the skype one I probably haven't made a skype call in years that's like just a sign that it's a really good one all right, here it is. 

01:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll play it. I'll see if it comes up. If not, we'll. 

01:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll put it in post, yeah, go go play it if it comes up, good, if not, we'll put it in post. Yeah, go go play it. Yeah, this is exactly what I was thinking. So good, I don't remember it's just like the background beat. You know it's just a steady beat in the background Boom, boom, boom, Like it's a single bass note. 

02:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Amazing. I'm not a music guy guy, but that absolutely rips I, I actually I will. 

02:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will actually wait to answer the call a few seconds longer because of how good that track is our producer's going nuts behind the camera. 

02:17
It's actually really good. I like that one. But our intro is really good too. I'm glad zach picked that one. Credit to zach. Didn't even run it by us one day. We just like rolled in with that intro and we never have even said anything about it is really good too. I'm glad Zach picked that one. Credit to Zach, didn't even run it by us One day. We just like rolled in with that intro and we never have even said anything about it or changed it. But always gets me excited. 

02:32
For those who are watching on YouTube, hit the subscribe button below. Anytime we do a circles off, you'll get a notification Very simple. Anytime we do any educational content, you get a notification Very simple. For those who are listening on Spotify or on iTunes, please rate and review Five Stars if you're enjoying this and this is going to be a I'm going to call it. I don't know what the best way to call it is, but let's just say we're winging this episode. Okay, this is the mail it in special, but there's a reason we're mailing it in, so I'll be very clear. 

03:08
Formula One started the season this past weekend. I got flooded with DMs Sunday morning, even Saturday after qualifying. Who are you betting this week. I'm new to Formula One betting because I watch your drive to survive. Formula One's taking the world by storm storm, which I love because I'm a huge f1 fan. No one knows how to bet it. Guess what? Neither do I, neither does john, so we're going to talk our way through how we would bet formula one. It's a new sport that we're both into we want to get involved in, have some action down, but we want to do it in a way where we think that we're going to be able to win money over time. So that's what we're going to do today Just kind of talk our way through how we would bet on Formula One. Second thing we're going to do tweets that trigger us. I think we got a five banger in this week's episode. 

03:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We got some good ones, man. I was triggered last week with a couple of these bad boys. Man, like you, can't't I got. There's one of them. I can't wait. 

04:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't wait to say and I know rob hasn't really seen him yet, so we'll take him by, uh, by surprise, as we always do yeah, we we johnny uh, drops his into a chat with our producer, I drop mine into them and then we kind of react live on air and it's um, yeah, I got. I mean, I got really triggered by a tweet yesterday to the point where I actually couldn't restrain myself from responding. We can, we'll get into it when it comes. That will certainly be in this program, but let's start with f1 betting alpha tori to win the constructors all right, you, you're getting into specific bets I'm gonna get into, like let's, let's start with. 

04:41
There's so much you can do, right, so let's, before we even get into F1 betting, obviously let's preach the basics, because it's the same thing that we're going to do, right, I'm not going to go to one sports book and pull up the odds and just bet there regardless. So so many of the principles that we've talked about on the previous 48 episodes of this podcast apply here. And even if you can't deposit into 20 sports books, I'm not suggesting you need to do that, but find ones with different odd sets and honestly, like, make sure that your sports book even has motor racing odds in the first place or f1 odds, before you even deposit into that book. Because some people message me on the weekend saying, hey, where are the f1 odds on this site? I'm like they don't even offer them. 

05:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, brutal, brutal, right. Yeah, line shopping even more than ever, because you'll catch a lot of books that really like quote unquote, don't give a shit about f1, it's not a big market, not taking a big pop, and they're not moving the lines and keeping as close an eye on it as like nfl or nba, so you actually will be able to uh, kind of grind these out and line shop a little more than your standard main sports. But yeah, it's kind of similar to golf in a sense that, like every race there's going to be like an outright winner that you can bet on. The most common would be like the outright. Or you got the matchup place where it's like two drivers facing each other and then going side to side. I was reading all kinds of rules on like the retirements and stuff, the props, just to make sure I'm grinding all those out too. 

06:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. So that's another element of it right. Wherever you're going to bet and listen at the end of the day depends how seriously you're going to take this stuff. Most of the people that want to bet on F1 are going to want to win some money. We've talked about this before. Yes, there's recreational betting, betting for entertainment. If you're going to lose money every single time you bet on something, it's not going to be entertaining anymore. It's going to suck, like watching a race every week and seeing your guys lose and never winning anything. It's going to suck. So if you're taking it seriously, you have to understand each sports book's rules, rules, terms and conditions, how they're grading F1 stuff, if they're going to grade after a certain number of laps, like, for example, there's races where 90% of the laps, or there's sports books where 90% of the laps make a race official, somebody who runs 90% of the laps. There's all sorts of different stuff that you can look at. A qualified driver. 

07:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I believe you're-. 

07:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I can't remember exactly Classified. 

07:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Classified driver, right Like we get a qualified driver. 

07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I believe you're yeah or I can't remember exactly classified driver, right, like we grade on on classification or whatever so on and so forth. Just understand the rules for one. Um but all, like I said, if you have to I mean if you got time listen to previous episodes of circles off. But definitely multiple sports books, definitely line shop. But but very importantly here, I think this is what I've noticed so far this is dating back to last year where I really started like betting F1, and this year where I've been race one where I'm following along. 

07:36
Each sports book is going to open and close the markets at very different times. Timing of wagers is very important, in my opinion, in this sport. Some sportsbooks leave things up longer, some take them off the board quicker, so on and so forth. So what I've been liking to do over the course of this first week of the season and even at the end of last year is plot odd sets at different times of the day. 

08:00
So for Formula One you have your Friday practice sessions, usually Fridays P1 in the morning, p2 in the afternoon. Then you have your qualifying on Saturday. You have your race on Sunday. Some books will take stuff off the board at different times. Some will leave them up when there's more information available. So, just like any other market I know it's not as big as the nfl or major league baseball or the nba, but if a book is leaving odds up while practices are going on which happened twice this weekend on friday it's an inherent advantage you have in being able to get down, so understanding the timing of when the events occur and looking for sports books who are, you know, leaving their odds on the board, for example, or potentially reopening at way off market numbers as well, because that tends to happen. Practice is over, qualifying is over, everybody's going to reopen the race odds and you typically get at least one or two sports books that are offering an off-market number on a driver fair enough, yeah, if you can. 

09:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So basically here's the way we're looking at it. Um, practice can obviously tell. So the practice is like the drivers just kind of go, mess around, go in the cars, drive fast. You know the works well yeah, p p1. 

09:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I should say is just actually kind of like a joke they're just like they're out there feeling it out. 

09:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, what's the track? 

09:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
and we'll get more into that, but yes, yeah and then. 

09:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if, for example, you're seeing like faster times than expected for certain um for certain cars, then it could be like car improvements, things like that. And again, we're not the biggest, I'm not the biggest f1 fan, I'm not like you know times than expected for certain um for certain cars. Then it could be like car improvements, things like that. And again, we're not the biggest, I'm not the biggest f1 fan, I'm not, like you know, an auto mechanic. However, um, it'll be easy for well you're not an auto mechanic. 

09:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not an auto mechanic. I mean, you can build an f1 car in uh, what's six months? 

09:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you said right yeah, I mean, oh sorry, nobody knows what I'm talking about. You give me all the pieces I have to give the background because this is actually okay off it office challenge here. Um, these guys said that if they were to build an f1 car, you get all the pieces dropped too. You don't have to write to software, it's all there. None of the pieces are are missing. You get every piece. 

10:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You get like engine here, this there you basically get a garage with everything you get a garage with everything you need. 

10:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, you don't have a direct instruction manual, but what you have is better. You have any resource. You can text anyone you need. You can text a buddy. You can phone in a friend, you can look anything on online, anywhere on the web. You can go to a university, you can go to a team, whatever you need. It was like how long will it take you to build that car up? You have unlimited time could be like 10 years if you want, and rob is saying he's not going to be able to get it done I. 

10:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I personally don't think I could build an f1 car in six months because I'm terrible at building things without following instructions. If you give me instructions to follow, I'll probably be able to do it. So find the instructions. 

11:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're talking about the peak like technology it also has to go on the track and pass yeah, you have to drive your own car. 

11:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We said yeah, you have to drive a lap. 

11:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But here's the thing, the actual instructions like, the actual technology in this is not in actually assembling the car, the. 

11:21
The instruction like okay, the technology is in the performance of the parts. The technology is in the performance of the parts. The technology is in the performance of the engine, the software that's writing the whatever, everything in the car. It's not the parts. Assembling it is nothing. Assembling it is just a. It's a, it's a worker's job. You just assemble it. You know what I mean. You're not. You don't have to have, you don't have to be like the brains of the whole thing to assemble this car are we including engine assembly as part of this, or does the engine get dropped off as a whole? 

11:49
How many teams get their engine dropped off as a whole? They build their engines how many. 

11:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But here's the thing. For example, ferrari is going to build engines for other teams, exactly Like Haas is using a Ferrari. 

11:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So how does Haas get the engine Already built? 

12:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Already built, get the engine already built. Already built, there you go. But how does ferrari get the engine? 

12:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
they build the engine themselves is haas and f1 team. They are so. Okay, fine, we're gonna go with. You're building the haas f1 car. I will build the haas f1 car. These guys said it would take them upwards of six years. 

12:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're on your buddy no, no, I'll go to school. 

12:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We had an auto mechanic intern for a year at ferrari, for a full season leave. Take a summer abroad, come back and then build it six years. You guys are out to lunch. This thing will take me maximum one year, but I think I could do it in six months. 

12:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Here's the thing you're acting like you can go and get an internship at ferrari tomorrow and they're just gonna take you like oh yeah let's just go to school first. Let's you're. Yeah, you're gonna go to school for what? Six months, and Ferrari is going to take you in on an internship, you said six years, I'll go to school for literally four years. 

12:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
become a mechanical engineer, get an internship at Ferrari in between my third and fourth year of school, return back to Ferrari, jump ship to AlphaTauri for a salary bump, take a summer abroad, come back and then build the car. That's if I have six years I'll go. 

13:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I could literally take a year off. Let me just make it clear that the office answers ranged wildly wildly from johnny saying six months to other people saying six years. I believe I gave myself 18 months was my number. I obviously I don't know what this entails at all. I'm very we're never going to be able to settle this debate, and this is part of the problem with the office debates that we have we can never actually settle them because they're all theoretical. But I am very curious what other people out there think. So if you're watching on YouTube in the comments, how long would it take you to build a formula one car from scratch? Just you. All the parts delivered, you got the garage, all the tools you need just you, no. 

13:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But you could ask people for help. They just can't build it for you. You don't have an instruction manual, but you could. You could like how many? People you think out there know how to build an F1 car, but that's what I'm saying. You could find someone who knows, for example. Again, I didn't really do much work on this, but I Googled how to build an f1 car. So did I. There was a lot of stuff available. Now I don't know how good it is. 

14:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't sift through it, but pretty much same very generic. 

14:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Same thing with everything in the world. You could just google how to do this. Something will pop up. You build from there. You ask you need. 

14:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Come on six years okay, google how to hedge a bet and tell me how great the information is that you get on page one how to hedge a bet, because there's a lot of uh, I've been going through a lot of the gambling specific searches. Let's just say I mean, google is a source, not necessarily the greatest source. All the time you google how to get a hedge a bet, half the time you get response like articles about how to middle a bet, not necessarily how to hedge, like they're conflating the two terms. So there's a lot of problems with it. You are a very determined person. I think you can. You might be able to do it. I'm not saying that there's no chance. You're very determined I get it. 

14:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm just it's never gonna happen and I don't even, by the way, I don't even know how to change oil in a car. So I'm starting base level and I'm saying I can do it. Imagine I was already like somewhat like imagine I knew how to do all like regular car maintenance. You know what I mean. Like imagine I knew how to do stuff to like rebuild a regular car and I'll easily build that F1 car. 

15:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The most I do for my own car is put the washer fluid in. Anything else I'm going to the mechanic because it's the convenience factor. Like I don't care to learn Cause I don't need to. It's different. Like if I was, if I was born in 1950, right, and you get stranded on the side of the road. You got no cell phone. Like you gotta learn. You gotta learn how to change a tire. You gotta learn how to do this stuff. Like I would learn that because it's a required thing for me to learn. Nowadays we're Canada, we, you know. We have CAA. Easy, call up CAA to come, you know fix a tire. 

15:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, Easy, easy money nowadays is like everyone offers a service. It's kind of like it's not even that expensive to do that stuff and like you know what I mean it's my time and and effort right and I'd have to learn it. 

16:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the time of learning it as well. I'm not saying that's not a valuable thing to know. It's not what I'm saying, but anyways, I'm very curious, a couple tires in my day. 

16:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I just never helped my dad change a tire before too. 

16:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But could I do it myself? Yeah, I could probably do it myself, but I'd be on the road for like four side of the road for four hours trying to figure this stuff out, googling on my phone and stuff like that. Yeah, I can change a tire. Can I build an F1 car? Probably not, no matter how much research I do. Well, I could probably do it. I mean, it would just take me a long time and I don't necessarily know that I have the commitment to follow through. I know, neither do I. 

16:42
It has to be one of those bets though that's sizable enough for you to do it. Where, like, it's a million dollar bet, where if you don't do it you pay a million dollars and if you do do it you get a million dollars. Yeah. 

16:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wouldn't even take that, though, like remember, do you remember the point my life to devote like every day in this garage, to making this car, unless it's a big payoff. 

17:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But okay, I'm saying there's a number that you would do it for for sure, right, for sure, for sure. 

17:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And then also like the challenge itself and like completing, that would be pretty cool, because here's the thing like I say, six months my deadline, but I, realistically, I'm probably out of there in two and a half, right? So it's not even that big of a deal. You know what I mean. 

17:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I get it. I'm just curious what people think about this, because obviously we have an internal 10 people who kind of debated this. Um, like I said, if you're on youtube, comment below how long it take you to build an f1 car if you're on twitter still comment. Anyways, I'm very f1 odds. 

17:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so back to f1 odds. Um, you know, in practice, what we're basically saying is what rob has been looking for is like which books are leaving their odds up during practice? Where you can potentially find an edge becomes you know which cars are looking fast right now, faster than the previous week, faster than you know, may have made some improvements or had some um you know technical difficulties solved from the previous week, looking a little faster, maybe drive better on a certain track, based on the actual car. That isn't actually factored into this year's things. 

18:04
There's a lot of rule changes in F1. I'm not a hundred percent familiar with exactly what they are every year, but something that I've been looking into just ahead of the first race is what changes were made for the teams, like in terms of what parts they can use when they need to do specific things, what tires you can now start on and then change their. Previously, I believe you know you had to use a certain tire to start the race and that was the same tire that you had to be using in a specific set of qualifying. That rule correct if I'm wrong has since been removed correct. 

18:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
correct so that that's like rule changes for um. The sport are obviously huge from from year to year, so where people get carried away. This is what I find okay. F1 is a very difficult sport to model. It's like UFC, right, you bet the UFC. It's very difficult to model because you have limited data points. Now F1, you definitely have your track times for sure, you got a bunch of laps, you got a bunch of times and whatever. But this is where I find that news is very valuable. 

19:00
With Formula One Specifically, even if you were to follow the Formula One account on YouTube and you watch the videos post-practice and qualifying, if you're watching live events, you will often hear drivers talk about working on specific things or how they weren't pushing the car, or how they think that another team is actually faster than them. They will come right out after a practice and say we just don't have the pace this weekend. You know we're in it to try to score as many points as possible, but we're well behind the Ferrari, we're well behind the Red Bull, we're well behind the Mercedes. So it's actually I find that news-driven analysis is crucial. Anyone who went into this weekend the first weekend of the season looking at odds. Obviously lots of money flowed in on Ferrari. They ended up coming one two in the race. A little bit fortunate to come one two because of the the Red Bull retirements after you know, very late in that race. But the odds on Ferrari shifted drastically over the course of the weekend. It was part of practice times, their car being really fast, but on top of that I think everyone recognizing on the grid how fast their car actually was relative to everyone else. So there's a lot of details that come into that. Just on team news, and like anyone following early in the season, mercedes is in trouble. Their drivers are talking about how the car is not up to standards. Other teams are talking about how they're ripe for the picking. Ask yourself, is that reflected in the odds on a weekly basis? I didn't think it was well-reflected last week. I thought their cars were overvalued overall. But these are really, from a handicapping perspective, things I would look at. 

20:33
There are also, as someone who's followed F1 for a long time, I don't want to say drivers dominate tracks, but certain types of cars fare well on certain tracks. So you have two types of tracks in Formula One. You have what are called your high downforce tracks, and then you have your power tracks, which are low downforce. So I'll explain the difference. For a high downforce track, this is a track where the car's performance is more attributed to their aerodynamic force rather than the engine power. Okay, so what these tracks typically have are fewer straightaways, more corners. Hungary, for example, spain, mexico, monaco Monaco is a perfect example Very few straightaways. 

21:22
Teams that are not that fast can actually perform well at these tracks that don't have a lot of engine power because they're more aerodynamic. So if you look back to last year's F1 season, these are races where Ferrari and McLaren from last season would have been more competitive against the big two teams like Red Bull and Mercedes. Then you have the power tracks, which are low downforce tracks. Mclaren from last season would have been more competitive against the big two teams like Red Bull and Mercedes. Then you have the power tracks, which are low downforce tracks. Complete opposite your car's performance is more tied to the power of the engine power how much acceleration you can get. These tracks usually feature long straightaways and fewer corners, fewer turns. 

22:04
Italy, monza Grand Prix is one where 75% of each lap is at full throttle. That favors the team with the faster car In the past. Red Bull, mercedes do really well on these tracks. Canada, the Montreal Grand Prix is one of those, the one in Baku, azerbaijan lots of straightaways. So the type of track matters and you're going to start to see these trends appear as the year goes on. So if you start labeling tracks as high downforce versus low downforce or kind of what we would call an in-between and this is something that I did last year, granted one season sample size, don't even know if this is an edge or not, but I feel subjectively that there's something there, because the odds are very consistent race to race you would find that certain cars perform better on a certain type of track regularly and are more competitive on certain types of tracks regularly. 

22:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Would this be factored in the line, though I? 

23:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
have not seen it that way. Like you typically notice this that the lines are very consistent, like if you go back to last year and it's very difficult to find historical odds for Formula One Luckily I was logging them last year but if you find a race where Lewis Hamilton is on pole, he's going to be priced in almost the exact same price range for every single time, regardless of if it's a race where the pole position typically wins or or where it's least likely correct on the variance which we we identified in monaco last year, which I thought last year monaco charlotte, charlotte claire qualified on pole would have been a great bet, because he's being offered at, like you know, three, three, four to one, something like that. 

23:44
um can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but traditionally that is a a high down force track where there's tons of turns, which means that the difference between the the top cars to the rest of the field is much less, because they're not reaching peak speeds for much of the race and on top of that, historically speaking, the track can barely hold two cars side by side. It's so hard to pass, there's so limited opportunities to pass there. So what I've found is not a lot of this is typically I don't want to say none of it's factored into the lines. I don't want to like make statements like that. Obviously, it's a betting market, just like anything else. Uh, it's not a super big one, but I too tend to find that there are cars and types of tracks that are favored, that favor your, your, your type of car. Um, it's tracks that favor your type of car, tracks that favor your type of car, or tracks that favor a certain qualifying position. 

24:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, fair enough. I think that's potentially an edge there that we might have that we can take a look at and keep an eye on. So race history here, as well as like any improvements to that car that's been made season to season, early in season, that hasn't necessarily been factored in. So is mercedes now a slower car straight away, would be something to factor into that line. Um, let's talk matchups now. Yep, so matchups are are big because typically you know, not a lot of books will have a like a ton of matchup offerings might have one matchup or two matchups for every single driver. So so you might have Hamilton versus Verstappen or Verstappen versus Leclerc. One thing that I've noticed is that the driver themselves matters a lot, but also the, the actual finishing position doesn't matter in the matchup right. All that matters is if you beat that other guy or if you lose to that other guy, correct? So when Max Verstappen's in odds-on favor to win the race, you betting him to beat the other guy, that doesn't necessarily mean that that other guy needs to be a specific percentage more likely to win the race than Verstappen for you to have to bet that right. So if you're betting a big dog you can win off of, for example, a retirement or a crash or something like that, like the variance that plays in. So one thing that I noticed I just pulled it up while you were talking is like last so since the beginning of 2020 season, so basically two full seasons and one race verstappen has actually retired, so came in like roughly last place, but not not actually, because other people could have retired before him, but he retired, did not finish the race. Nine out of 40 races, which is actually insane, because whether that is a lot of variance or not, who knows, but Verstappen is typically a driver. He's driving like a little more reckless. He's very aggressive driver, very aggressive, and if you look at his finishing positions, you'll see like one, two, two, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1. Amazing, but within there he's got six DNFs, six did not finish. So when you're betting Verstappen, it seems like he's either top of the board or DNF. 

27:03
And if you're betting a guy who's going to be a do not finish, you can actually take a bigger dog, like a carlos signs versus verstappen in a match-up play. 

27:06
Try to pick up a plus 500 and realistically like if you're believing that and again, history is not technically the best indicator of future performance, correct, because verstappen is retired in almost one in every four races over the past 40 doesn't mean that that's going to continue, however. Um, if he's retiring one in every four races and you're picking up a guy at plus 500 to beat him, that's an incredible bet, because there's also a chance that you can just beat him out right now. Again, there's the factor that Sainz might retire before Verstappen or anything like that, but it's an awesome bet there, and it's something just to be weary of, is? You don't need to be a good driver to actually win the race to beat someone in a matchup. You could have hamilton, you know, crash with verstappen and then you win all the variable matchups there, and a lot of those, I think, are not necessarily factored into the line. I'd much rather be playing carlos signs at plus 500 versus max verstappen over signs at minus 500 yep, I agree with that a hundred percent. 

27:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
even if you don't want to look at exact results from the past because you might not think they're an indicator of the future, you could probably bucket drivers into their aggressiveness because, I mean, this is just common sense, right? The more aggressive a driver, the more likely they are to crash out of a race, plain and simple. Also, you can bucket teams in terms of reliability and, honestly, teams will let you beforehand, let you know beforehand. Teams will let you know beforehand. Like listen to a team principal speak, like a Tom Horner, for example, on a weekend. They'll tell you if they're concerned about the reliability of their car. They'll tell you if they're going into a race on bad tires, like there's all sorts of stuff that you have to look at going into a specific race. But just listen to this stuff or just even read it, you can gain a lot of valuable information. That way, a lot of times, matchups for teammates are uh sorry, for head-to-heads are teammates and you can identify guys who are much more likely to go out of a race than others. For example, in the past it's not this year Grosjean used to race for Haas was involved in a pretty fiery wreck last year, one of the more scary moments in F1 history was able to walk away from that. But the guy could not finish a race Like he's just a disaster of a driver, complete disaster. And you could take his opponent or his teammate at the time was Kevin Magnussen two years ago trying to remember who was like regardless. Um, at pretty close to even odds because they were putting up very similar times in qualifying, or grosjean was out qualifying him. But what good is a qualifying time if you can't finish a race speaking a lot into in terms of handicapping, there are other ways to win at F1. 

29:41
Plain and simple. Looking at the market, you can determine what the so for any market, whether it's outright head-to-heads. You can determine what the sportsbook is going to hold on that market. So let's say we're taking a futures market on F1. Johnny can maybe explain this a little better than I am. I'll try to get it as clear as possible. But you're going to have all the odds for every single driver to win the race. They're going to add up to a percentage that's over 100% because the sports book is taking a hold on that. 

30:12
You can strip out the hold and determine what the fair price is for every driver by just doing some simple division. It's not entirely perfect, but by doing some simple division Now you can take that fair price and you can just line shop and you actually have done nothing now other than use the market. I'm talking about like a market-making book, whoever takes the biggest bet on F1 and just shop around and bet prices based off of that, and I feel that's a very I mean I don't want gonna say easy, because there's work involved, obviously but if you have no nothing about formula one and you're able to put that something like that together, you're giving yourself a great fighting chance to be able to profit in a long run easy easiest way and it's a lot of fun because you can sweat the races, um, you know, with basically a neutral ev or slightly positive EV position, and you know you'll win some, you'll lose some, but over the course of the year you'll have a lot of fun doing that. 

31:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, one thing I'll add before we get into the tweets that trigger me is like, if you're enjoying the race on a nice Sunday morning, nothing better than making an espresso with the race and just, um you know, enjoying a nice espresso while watching Ferrari is, uh, is great for not only Italian. So if you're not Italian, you still want to do that, I'd recommend it. You can try it out. It's uh, it's very, very soothing. 

31:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love it. Formula One's amazing man, it really is. Um, both Johnny and myself are, you know, italian, canadian. Um, so we are Ferrari fans, so it's great to see Ferrari in contention again this year. But it's just such a great sport, like it really is. It's just to follow Having a little bit of an extra sweat on it. Very fun, I want to try to win. Like I'm not just there to have a sweat. Like I said, I don't want to. I'm going to be miserable every Sunday if I'm losing every single time. But that's kind of my strategy for me. 

32:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm with you. This is how I approach betting. I want to have fun betting and everyone says it oh yeah, I just bet for fun. But you don't bet for fun, because if you bet for fun, you would bet to win, because winning is fun and losing at betting sucks. No one ever had fun losing a thousand dollars watching an f1 race never been done. Go ask any of your buddies that lost on F1. Be like, hey, remember when you lost 500 bucks on that F1 race? Like yeah, did you have fun? Like no, not at all, wasn't fun at all. So try to win. Tell you what, when you're trying to win, it's way more fun. 

32:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The last thing I'll add to this, which we haven't talked about you can also live bet F1, which is actually really fun as well. Now you have to understand you're probably watching a delayed feed. They're free rolling you. Yeah, you're watching it. So like, sometimes you'll see stuff that doesn't make sense. Well, something's probably going to happen. So there are some like essentially there's a spoiler alert sometimes when you're watching or you're looking at live odds. With that said, the odds sets from sports book to sports book are so insanely different sometimes and you'll often catch one book that you know is faster, so exploit that. Like. 

33:13
It's a very simple way to make some money. If one book is faster at updating their live odds by 10 seconds and there's some sort of wreck and they know something, or you see lines shift drastically at that sports book and everyone else stays the same, you got an edge. Bang it Now. It's not as enjoyable because obviously you gotta be glued to your TV screen or your computer screen while you're watching the races. But if you're not doing this for entertainment, you're looking just to do it for money purposes. There's an edge there. Me and Johnny know we did this last year. Obviously there's a lot of races where verstappen and hamilton were going head to head. One guy took another guy out. Uh, is just a very exploitable angle. This doesn't only apply to f1, applies to everything. Again, it's a real-time trading, but you can do. 

34:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, let's get into the tweets. I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad. 

34:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I get paid. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? 

34:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's only a game. Why do you have to be mad? It's only a game. 

34:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love that one so much. All right, let's go, zach, let's get the uh, the first one up. 

34:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
oh yes, uh, I've seen, this is mine you pick this one. 

34:26
I've seen this one go ahead okay, this is the one of the funniest tweets I've ever seen. So this guy says quite the capper. At quite the capper, he says, uh, diamond emoji, favorite play of the day, diamond emojis. He's, like you know, favorite banger, big bomb banger. He's like, favorite play of the day is already locked, loaded and ready to go and he puts a screenshot. 

34:52
Okay, now for those of you who are not viewing, on this screenshot is he's. He's blurred out some stuff, as probably you should. When blurring out, when posting a bet screenshot, right, you know we've talked. As probably you should. When blurring out when posting a bed screenshot, right, you know we've talked about before you got to blur out the ticket ID. You don't want people looking into your account, knowing your personal identity, especially if this guy is not posting under his real name, he's posting under an alias quite the capper. But what he's done on this screenshot is just, it's merely impossible, impossible. I was posted a screenshot. 

35:21
The screenshot blurs out what the bet is, how much the bet is for, all of the stuff around the bet and only, and he blurs out everything. All he has left is the word wager and to pay where it should say, like the amounts that he wagered in the amount that the bet would pay. He's he's blurred out the amounts, but he's left wager to pay and the one thing he's left is a draft king screenshot. He's left the ticket id. So essentially he has said favorite play of the day, locked, loaded and ready to go, and he posted a screenshot with only the ticket id, no value to the. To the person who's tweeting it to, he said doesn't include the actual bet. He doesn't include the amount, doesn't include anything, is valuable to no one except anyone who has access to the draft kings bets, anyone who works at drafting, who can now pull open that ticket id and map it to his name. 

36:10
That's all he's done, is sweet, achieve zero value. And if anything, he should be blurring out every single thing but that, but that ticket id. So he should be blurring out sorry, only he should be blurring out only the ticket id and leaving everything else right, relevant. Because, like, who cares if you bet a certain thing for a certain amount? Like, especially, you know, maybe he wants to blur out the amounts, but who cares what he bet is just going to say under there. It's going to be like orlando magic plus 12. He blurred it out. Unbelievable man so unbelievable. 

36:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This one is yeah, I mean don't, don't ever. You burnt out the cash out. You burnt out everything you left. He left that. It's an open wager. I don't under. I don't understand the point of posting this, other than maybe saying like, look, I actually bet the stuff that I'm playing but doesn't even prove that, because he's got nothing on. 

36:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's nothing here. Um, this reminds could be a screenshot for like there's nothing. There's nothing useless on there. There's nothing here. This could be a screenshot. There's nothing useful here. 

37:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it's useful for the books to identify exactly who this is. There's no one. Okay, I'll get into this story a little bit. There's this ongoing conspiracy theory that I'm Ben the Better. People think that I, for years now, have been posting the opposites of games that I like. I'm Ben the Better. The reason why I know that I'm not Ben the Better, other than the fact that I'm not, is because I used to consult for offshore sportsbooks. 

37:32
One day Ben the Better posted a bet of his, blurred out the amounts of the bet, blacked them over with the Microsoft Paint or whatever, left the account number or the ticket number Very quickly, was able to look up this account, determined that it indeed was a real person. Will not divulge the information that's not what I'm about. Can keep his anonymity, but betting the stuff that he was posting. This was a real person, confirmed. Is he actually betting everything? He was betting what he was posting and some live wagering on top of that, I will say like he was taking advantage of bonuses at the book that he was at. He knew how to get money. 

38:19
Ben had a lot of principles of being a winning bettor, other than the fact that he was chasing a lot of principles of being a winning better, other than the fact that you know he's chasing a lot of losses and, um, a lot, a lot of chase parlays let's put it that way. But he would post those, he took his credit, he would post those, he was very open and the next morning he would come on his twitter and be like guys, I got no, got no money, I lost it all Betting the Golden State Warriors in a parlay. And you know he did. 

38:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And it was true. 

38:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He did. He was honest, he was very upfront about it. Good on him. So lesson is remember people do have access to this information. It is very hard for someone at a specific book, even if you're to post a ticket and blur out the amounts and blur out the receipt number or the ticket number. And it was just like Johnny said, orlando magic plus 12 and a half. Do you know how hard it is for a bookmaker to figure out exactly who that is? It's nearly nearly impossible. There's going to be so many bets on that one nba side. But as soon as you give the ticket number, uh, information is out there. Never give your ticket, never do it. And in this case it is actually very funny because it's the only information cannot do it in the entire screenshot. 

39:40
All right, quite the capper later. Thanks for coming up. Next one Okay, I especially liked this one because, for one, kevin Davis alerted us to this one by using the hashtag tweets that trigger us at BetStamp. If you have something out there that triggers you, use the same hashtag tweets that trigger us. Tag the BetStamp account. Whatever you want to do, we do go through them and, believe me, we also get triggered by the same stuff that triggers you. Kevin Davis, let this be a lesson for me to respect the closing line. I bet Villanova plus one and a half last night. This morning they were plus two and a half. Final score UConn 71, villanova 69. The difference between winning and losing that bet was the timing of my bet. Very well-crafted tweet, by the way, from Kevin, our boy. 

40:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
GRP wins. Wait, kevin, first off, I know you're listening, you're a good dude. Respect on that bet and we appreciate that. I mean, obviously it is what it is, but the fact that you are aware that, like the timing of the bet, getting the good closing line value, like you're on the right track, my man agreed and we had the luxury of meeting kevin at the first bet bash in new jersey. 

40:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Stand up, dude big cfl better, if I remember correctly, which I appreciated about him as well. You don't get people introducing you like I love the cfl great dude. Grp wins uh, george riley how do you pronounce his last name, benagakis? I just call him grp wins responds to kevin's tweet saying correct, 10 to 15 percent of the time it will make a difference what number you get. 85 percent of the time the number won't matter, just be on the right side of the game. It's tough, just be on the right side of the game, but the number doesn't matter. The right side of the game is pretty much entirely determined by where the number goes I mean. 

41:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So here's something that is like a fallacy in sports betting as well. It's like people think, oh, the juice doesn't matter, you only pay the juice if you win or like, doesn't matter if you got a bad number, as long as you win, as long as you're on the right side. The reality is you can bet alternate lines, so it always matters what number you got, because if you have $100 to risk, technically, when people are saying, oh, juice doesn't matter if you win, they're just risking more on a worse number. So if you bet it at minus 115, you risk 115 to win 100. The line moves to plus 100. You risk 100 to win 100. 

42:15
If that bet wins, yes, you won 100 in both scenarios. However, had you placed your full bet on the plus 100, you would have placed 115 for 115. Therefore, you would have won $15 extra with the 115 profit. So, net being like the juice, only pay juice if you lose. No, you paid it when you won, you paid $15 because you got the worst of the number. So, all in, especially with things like this, it's like it doesn't matter what the right side of the game is First off. That's not a real thing. Like the right side, it's just the right number. But ultimately, no matter what happens, if you bet a plus six and a half and it moves to plus four and a half, you could have in theory bet that like you got an amazing line If you were to convert that to the plus four and a half and then at that time you're playing plus six and a half you, and then at that time you're playing plus six and a half, you're paying like minus 160 to convert that. 

43:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know it's kind of hard to understand what I'm saying. 

43:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know Rob understands it. Probably a lot of people do. But never say you don't pay juice unless you lose, because you are always paying the juice, no matter what, always want to get the best number. The ROI will be significantly better when you do. 

43:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Last thing I'll say on this one as well. We've talked about this before, but it's important to make this extremely clear that you know the whole the number didn't matter in like the last four weeks of the NFL season, didn't matter what you bet, you would have won. Stuff like that it's very selective for one. But on top of that, we've talked about the efficiency of these markets before and understanding why a number moves. A number in a market does not move for no reason. You have market making sports books. I won't name them, but a lot of people know exactly who they are, who are taking very, very big bets, that are profiling every single person that bets through their sports book and they know whether that person is a long-term winner or a loser, how much they win, which sports they win at. All the information that one could want to set a line is what these sports books have. So when they move a number, they are moving it because respected bettors are betting that side, plain and simple. So, yes, there might be a time where you get negative closing line value and you win, or you get positive closing line value and you lose. But to not respect the market and say most of the time. The number doesn't matter. It always matters, it always matters. You always want it to move in your direction. Now there's going to be exceptions, obviously, but these blanketed statements also like where did these numbers come from? 10 to 15 percent of the time, it will make a difference what number you get. It always makes a difference in some capacity. It always makes a difference. All right Up next. Okay, david C Betts. 

45:13
My friend just got this message from a bookie and I've never seen anything like it. Hey dog Just wanted to let you know I was never aware we could bet on favorites and it would pay out. Example I risk $42 to win $38. I thought this meant negative Makes sense for someone to think there is no return on betting for favorites whenever you enter the amount to risk and see less of an amount to win than you risk. I'm not saying this is specifically your fault, but it's definitely a major concern of mine. Obviously, I would have been taking favorites Example I would have risked $30 to win $25 if I was aware the return would have been $25 and not negative $5. I still haven't received my income tax, but I will this week. So let's figure out a solution to this misunderstanding and lack of communication that has took place. I actually don't even know where to start on this one. I will say like this one actually doesn't necessarily trigger me more so than funny, it's just it actually makes me want to cry. 

46:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The triggering is at the end, when he's, like you could tell now like he's messaging. Like he says my friend just got this message from a bookie and I like I don't. So is he messaging a player this, or is a player messaging a bookie this? 

46:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
there's a lot of confusion here from, for on my point from why does he? 

46:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
need so. So I'm assuming he needs his income tax to come in so he could pay up or his share of the losses. 

46:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is that how you're in truth, or is it the other guy's share of the winnings? I don't know. This very much feels like a guy who sent a message to the bookie saying hey man didn't know that I could bet favorites. 

46:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I know, I know. That's why I'm down. 

46:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So so it doesn't sound like the message is from the bookie. It sounds like it's to the bookie, right? 

47:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but it says from the message from the bookie, but also to be fair to him, within the American odd set and even European, usually the only like on credit it's like hey, risk 55, win 50, right, it says that In the other books, if you're playing on a different sports book, it'll say like like, let's say you're betting a minus 110 and you're betting a hundred dollars. They'll say like bet 100. Or let's say you're betting 110. I'll say bet 110, return 210. Yeah, but it's factoring in that your initial 110 is gone and then if you win it you return 210. Right, so there is a little bit of confusion. Obviously you're not going to be able to like. He's like I thought I couldn't bet favorites, like what. 

47:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He just thought that he just thought it's a guaranteed loss. 

47:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He just thought he places the bet and just if he loses, he loses all his money. If he wins, he loses five dollars I, I, this. 

47:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This one is actually unfathomable. Like it's almost like this is a troll job or has to be a joke. I don't know how anyone on earth can think that they would place a bet and it's just a guaranteed loss. Like if I, if I. 

48:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is a classic lose, lose when you still lose. 

48:13
Yeah, like it just doesn't make it just literally doesn't make sense. But it is what it is. And, honestly, the funniest part about this is that at the end no, it's not even funny. I'm not gonna say it's funny, but at the end, no, it's not even funny. I'm gonna say it's funny, but at the end he's like anyways, I can't pay you because I haven't got my income tax yet. But once it comes in, like, let's figure out what we're gonna do about this, because, like, this is a terrible miscommunication, like and lack. No, there's a misunderstanding, a lack of communication. So let's figure out what we're gonna do here. Obviously I would have been winning money. I lost money. Obviously I would have been winning, like are we even here? We're gonna call it a day. That's probably what that's like the funniest part about it this. 

48:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I've read this one about a million times already and, uh, trying to decipher. It is definitely difficult to understand the situation, but what I find so good shit good it is so good that there is actually listen. 

49:07
There's a lot of beginners in the space. There's a lot of people who are not educated on sports betting. Your starting point when you're betting on sports is to at least understand the basics. Everyone should do that. Unless you're just going to learn the ropes through an account, that's fine as well. But this is, like I said, unfathomable. I can't say that word properly. It's really bothering me. It's bothering me just as much as a tweet that I can't say unfathomable. There we go. 

49:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What happened to you, Pizzola? 

49:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know what happened to me, but someone could think that they put in a bet on a favorite and it's a guaranteed loss. 

49:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But at least he figured that out, though he was like at least he didn't bet it, it's true? Well, yeah, he's like why would I bet this? This is dumb. 

49:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But we've got to clear up this. Misunderstanding is the funniest thing. Okay, up next. All right, frank. This one really triggered me in real time. Twitter has this thing now okay, where it filters these tweets to you that are not on your timeline. It's just like oh, do you like football? Here's a tweet about football, do you like? I hate that, cause I follow the people I wanna follow cause I enjoy it. 

50:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can kind of like remove that slowly. Yeah, you can slowly hide and hide these posts, but it's annoying man. 

50:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Stop doing that to me. I just follow who I follow that's big tech, man. 

50:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're just gonna tell you what you want. 

50:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
These recommendation engines are too much at this point. This one was part of the recommendation engine, the NFL. It's from Frank Amirante, italian, maybe, maybe I don't know. All right, the NFL is the only league where players get traded for ridiculously low prices. Fix the trade market. A good wide receiver like Amari Cooper should not be dealt for a fifth and a swap for sixth round picks. It's absolutely absurd. What's absolutely absurd is this take okay, it's a market. If Amari Cooper was worth more than a fifth and a swap of sixth round picks, he would have been traded for more than that. There is no problem. This operates like any other market in the entire world Supply and demand, very, very, very, very simple. 

51:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's it occasionally a team will butcher a trade. Don't get me wrong. There is times when I've looked at a trade across many sports and said there is absolutely no way that was the best offer they could have got for him. And whether you believe that or not, whatever. However, however, the first line here. So I'm not saying that, amari cooper, this was the best offer. Maybe if they shopped around to all the teams they might have been able to get a little bit more, or whatever. That's not what I'm trying to argue here. What I'm arguing is the NFL is the only league where players get traded for ridiculously low prices is completely incorrect. They don't get traded for ridiculously low prices. They get traded for the actual price because there's so many different teams. So if that guy could have been traded for more, they would have got more. It's like they would have for sure for sure, trade him for a first rounder. Like what are you saying he's worth a first rounder? Then why would dallas trade him for a fifth round? 

52:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
but, but on top, of that like a good wide who is offering a good wide receiver like amari cooper well regardless. Okay, I think amari cooper is good but a good wide receiver like Amari Cooper. Well, regardless, okay, I think Amari Cooper is good, but a good wide receiver like Amari Cooper. 

52:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
this completely eliminates the contract, like the associate with him. 

52:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sure, he's good, he's getting paid like he's elite, he's getting paid like a quarterback, low-end quarterback basically. 

52:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I mean the Maple Leafs traded a first-round pick once, two and a half years ago, for nothing. They traded a first-round pick and Patrick Marleau for nothing so that they could get rid of Patrick. 

52:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Marleau's contract. 

52:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So the equivalent here of him saying this would be like a good player like Patrick Marleau should not be worth negative one first-round pick. However, that was an absolutely garbage trade for the Leafs and I'm questioning like, oh, could they have got more than him? Could they have got more? But the reality is it's a market. The GM at the time would have, for sure, explored a few options at the very minimum and not just accepted the first call that he had and clicked yes. He didn't mess up on his NHL 2019 video game and like, oh, I accidentally accepted the trade. It doesn't work like that. There's a lot of paperwork involved. Do you think Chiarelli did that with Larson Hall? One for one, maybe, maybe, but this is what I'm saying. They could have got more offers for him. There's always stuff that goes in where, like hey did Taylor. 

53:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hall want to go to. 

53:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He only would have accepted a trade to like three teams. So now you're working limited subset. You call one gm, he said I'm out, don't want him. Call another one. He's like I'll give you this small offer. The third one's like I'll give you this. You have to determine it's either this or nothing right now. And you got to work it in, but either way it's a full market. So the they don't go for ridiculously low prices. They go for within reason, the exact price that they're worth Within reason, because there's only 32 teams. So there's some variance there. 

54:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's say that actually did happen, though okay, it was just one team called up. Another team didn't really shop around the player and just traded him. To me, there's still not a problem with that trade market. It's on the teams that are in place to better their. Their own team, like it's. You know, there's nothing wrong with that altogether. Anyways, I'm done. I'm done with this tweet. I've seen it like 14 times because it keeps getting filtered and people keep liking this one. It drives me of bananas not as much as this one does, though. Our final installment. 

54:39
I believe this is the second time the sweat investor has made it the spread the spread investor has made it into our uh slip of the tongue with the sweat investor, the sweat investor himself, the difference between high level sports bettors and people who try and fail the good ones play the percentages in their favor over and over and live with the results knowing they have an edge long term. Amateurs sweat every single game and don't want to deal with losses. I hate these tweets not just this one in specific, but the fortune cookie like tweets didn't you bury him yesterday. I I did. I don't. 

55:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't have to get into specifics of you know, obviously I he's tweeted in the past about sweating specific games which would rob quote, tweeted this and tweeted uh, four separate screenshots probably about 12, 15 tweets where this guy was talking about how he just sweat out a bet and then he tweeted this, but obviously it is what it is yes, has nothing to. 

55:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So my issue with this is not the fact that in the past he's tweeted about sweating bets. My issue is just lumping bettors into like these. You have to do this in order to be successful or if you're not doing this, you can't possibly be successful. I know a lot of pro bettors and some semi pros and people who win in the long run that aren't even considered pro. Okay, I have myself betting partners tons. There's a interconnected circle of people who win and all know each other. There's going to be ones that place their bets and they go to bed. They don't even check the scores. They wake up the next morning. They do their accounting. They sometimes don't even do their accounting the next morning. They wait till end of week. Whatever, zero sweat. There's ones that sit and they watch the games and they sweat them because it's their actual money in play. 

56:36
I'm very confident in my edge over time. That doesn't mean that I don't I can't sweat an individual bet. Actually, I think that's part of the fun of sports betting the rush that you get from each of those individual plays over and over. So what I particularly hate is when people try to lump others into categories of like if you don't do this, you can't win. You're not, you know you're. There are signs like there are certain things that people do that may be against the grain, that doesn't mean anything, but these. This is just like. This has nothing to do with anything. It is definitely not a difference between a high level sports better and anyone else. 

57:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Every person I know that bet sports seriously right now at one point was 100% sweating all the bets they they had, and that's the reason they fell in love with the game and became so good at it was because they they loved it and they treated it as a passion and a hobby, not as a job. Now, granted, there's a lot of people now that do not sweat the games. They're betting at levels at which it is an earn for them now and it's not necessarily a job. However, starting out, and even if you continue to sweat the games, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that and in fact, for 99.99% of people who are betting sports, if you are not sweating the games, that's even more of an issue. Right, because you don't want to be just like. If you have an edge and you're churning volume over and you're just, you know it's become a formula for you where you're just looking at number of dollars wagered, expected ROIi, expected close things like that, and then just gunning from there and trying to actually just grow your bankroll and make money, then yeah, you don't need to watch every single game. But if you're just betting and then not watching the games and you're like more of a recreational, better. That's like more of an addiction as well. You shouldn't want to do that. 

58:20
So for sure, sweat out the games at almost every level. There's got to be something that is making you sweat. You know what I mean. Eventually you will have a game or a middle or something that ends up being a big thing. Or you might have a futures bet on uh whatever some team to win march madness, and then you end up going and sweating that like there's nothing wrong with that at all, um, unless of course, it becomes into an addiction and thing like that. But nothing wrong with sweating your bets. Definitely sweating your bets and not sweating your bets is not necessarily a feature that is going to make you more profitable in the long run. So you can do it. You can not do it. I'd say I'm, you know, 50-50. I like to watch games also. You know what I mean. Like when I'm betting on UFC. I do enjoy watching it just because I like watching the ufc might also have a better in an nba game where the channel is delayed and whatever, and I'm not going to barely barely check that all good as well. 

59:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know, yes, I just I just don't like people being lumped into categories based off of stuff that doesn't matter. It's really not like if you draw a venn diagram of, like, pro, high level sports bettors, as he points out, and you, you have one circle that is I don't sweat games, and you have another circle is I do sweat games. There's a lot of overlap between that venn diagram, it and, honestly, it doesn't matter. It is not a characteristic of a high level sports better, regardless. And also I should say there's all sorts of types of sports betters we've talked about on this program before as well. 

59:51
You have guys who are originators, who are just betting one side. You have guys who are arbing well, like, if you're arbing stuff, of course you're not going to sweat anything because in the long run your edge is guaranteed. For me, as me as an originator, I could do everything right and over the course of a year I can still lose and I'm very well aware of that. It doesn't make a difference. You know, that's part of like the sweat of sports betting the variance that's included. 

01:00:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So anyway, Also, this guy said there's been high-level sports bettors and people who try and fail. 

01:00:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously, from the question and from us talking about him, you can tell this. We don't consider this guy a high level sports better also, on top of that, just letting that be known. I mean, what about his record in the past year, though? Is it good or bad? It's good, so be it. Yeah, I mean, just forget about the fact that he worked with a another scammer, tout for months, defended the guy, now separated with him from his site, and now, right rightfully, calls him out as a scammer. Forget about the fact that this guy was having, you know, last year, a negative college basketball season on one to two unit plays. Went into march, madness upped his units to four to five, and then one, four or five of those in a row, which completely skews the record like there's. There's so many anyways, I don't want to get into he's running gun. 

01:00:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He doesn't sweat the bets but he does. But hey, listen, it is what it is. Anyone can do their own thing. It's on twitter, it's on you. Like this guy charges for picks. 

01:01:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You might win, you might not I don't know if he does anymore. I honestly don't even know what he does. I literally don't follow sweat investor anymore. He's uh, this was surfaced to my timeline, unfortunately. Unfortunately because obviously now I've spent way too much time of my life discussing this one in specific. I don't care for the guy, I think he's a joke. I've made that very clear before and I think that's it. I think we ended on this is that it? 

01:01:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, which is one more I think that's it. 

01:01:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There was one more. I made an executive decision to cut it. Fair enough, we can. I mean, there's a reason, rob doesn't want to call out. 

01:01:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Call out people no, and and and. Honestly he's. He's a more seasoned media guy than me, so I'll respect rob here. 

01:01:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're gonna cut that. The last one was just an honest mistake by someone that I actually respect and there's no lesson to be learned. There's actually just no lesson to be learned. I I tried unless I particularly despise someone like sweat investor here despise I don't want to put people in here that like, are we're not going to learn a lesson from it, like I'm not here to just completely come on and trash everyone in the industry. That's not the point. Fair enough there has to be like a positive spin on it in most cases. 

01:02:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, well, anyways, that's all good, we'll get the next one. I'm not. I don't really care that much that this one was taken off. It was something that was a funny one. It would be calling out someone, so it's good. 

01:02:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll leave for next week and we'll stay. Maybe we'll include it, maybe I'll have an epiphany and we'll just put it back in. 

01:02:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Whatever, All good F1 betting. Get your bets in, probably on Saturday during the qualifying or on Friday during the practice. See where the market's moving. Grind out those edges. Live bet during the race. Grab a nice spro. Sip it during the race, Put your Ferrari hat on and the scooter-ia, as they call it with the race. Put your Ferrari hat on and the scooter-ia, as they call it, with the English accent. 

01:03:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My goal one day we would never spend this money because it would be a complete waste for us to do it, since we're not really active BetStamp's not active in the European market. I was looking up the prices that these companies pay for sponsorships on the Ferrari, particularly Shell, because Shell's logo on the Ferrari is a chef's kiss it's the most beautiful thing and I think they only pay like 12, they only pay 12 million euros or something like that for their sponsorship. Ray-ban pays a lot more, which you notice the Ray-Ban on the side as well, but it doesn't pop like the yellow on the Ferrarirari. One day, that stamp on the ferrari that will be. That would be a life dream. Even if we had enough money to put bet stamp on the ferrari, even though we don't need to, how much is it? It would probably be like a minimum of of to out, because you'd have to oust their like yeah, you have to, you have to outbid shell. 

01:04:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it'd be like 20 million euros but honestly though, the way gas prices are right now, I don't know if shell is going to be around like tesla's taking them out. We might be able to get that for less than 20 million euros. Shell pulls out. They're looking for a sponsor, and one day we'll see that would be. 

01:04:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That is a life goal, but this has been. Uh, episode number 49 of circles Off. Hit the subscribe button if you're watching on YouTube, please rate and review five stars if you're listening to us anywhere else, and let's hit that bomber, big bomb, banger. Outro track that we have.