00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to episode number 52 of circles off. I'm rob isola, joined by johnny from betstamp rocking his. What is that? A euro football? Is that from this year? 

00:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
euro 2020. Yeah, it was from last year, but it was called euro 2020, right, because they? 

00:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
had to delay it because of covid. It's pretty nice shirt, it's an italy championship shirt. This is the first celebration of them not making the world cup this is the first time I'm wearing bet stamp gear and you're not actually you're wearing the hat. Yeah, I gotta rock the hat. I was, uh, I was wearing a collared shirt on the drive-in this morning, took a sip of my coffee. 

00:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Lid wasn't on properly disaster and did it get on the car seats? No just over. 

00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was so much coffee that spilled out. It went through the sweater I was wearing onto the shirt that was underneath it, so went straight for our bet stamp swag upstairs grabbed a straight shirt off of the box, wrinkled, unfolded and wrinkled unfolded and, and our most like, it's a medium as well, which is like the most commonly requested size on top of things to make it even worse. 

01:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You just stole a shirt from a, from a fan that wanted one. All right, today we have a special episode for everybody. No guest, once again, it's just Rob and I here today we will have a lot of questions that were sent in. We're going to get the answers to those, and then we do have a couple of tweets that trigger us, the segment that keeps on giving. We got a bunch more, some that I submitted, some that Rob submitted that we'll be seeing for the very first time here, bunch more some that I submitted, some that rob submitted that we'll be seeing for the very first time here. 

01:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You want to kick it off. Yeah, I actually thought. I actually never talked to you about this. I thought I did, but I never talked about. I was thinking that we could eventually do like a a positive tweet, segment of, like you know, tweets that we agree with or something like that. And then, as I was going through them, I'm like, no, why, I'm like it's way better to find ones that make me upset. It's, it's better for the entertainment purposes. You know what I'm saying. 

02:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know we just have to have. We got to do like a tweets that trigger us and then, um, end up like finding. You know, I just don't like picking on the actual people. 

02:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's the only thing agreed I try, I try not to as well. I mean, it's, it's hard sometimes, we're all. We all make mistakes, but uh, we will get to it. I think we actually have more tweets than normal today. 

02:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We've got a bunch of questions. We'll kick it off, we'll get right into it. So we're starting off. The first question how often do you guys cash out of wagers that move against you and become negative EV, especially if the cash out is lower than the original stake, since that tiny loss of money each time can add up? So just to clarify what this person is asking is how often are you cashing out when the cash out amount changes in a negative way? So you might have bet for $1,000 and now your cash out's only maybe $920 and the line has moved against you. So I'll let Rob take that one first. 

03:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never used the cash out feature in my entire life because they're negative expected value every time, much rather just let the original bet ride. Because so there's two ways to cash out a bet. Right, obviously, you have the sportsbooks that will allow you to literally press a button to cash out. They will put money back in your account, or some people will prefer to just buy back on the opposite side, and some sports books don't offer a cash out feature. So either of those ways works. I personally just ride my bets, negative expected value or not. 

03:32
I learned a lesson about this many, many years ago where I bought out of a hockey wager because of a goalie change. So initially you bet a hockey game in the morning, then backup goalie starts for the team you bet on. You're like I didn't want to make this bet with the backup goalie, I'm going to buy out. I bought out of it. Two players on the other team in the afternoon were announced out. The line moved back in my favor and I said I'm never doing this again. And I haven't. So for me personally, I'm just much more inclined to let that original position ride, because more often than not, you're either going to use the cash out feature which is working in the sportsbook's favor, or you're going to pay vague again to buy out of your original position, which is increasing your negative expected value. 

04:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, there's never an excuse to place a second bad bet just because you placed the first bad bet to buy out of that. But I will say, in terms of the cash out function I have used it a bunch there are scenarios in which a cash out is actually beneficial. So, like anything within sports betting, the cash out is just a mathematical formula. So if you can't, so here's I'll give you an example. You know, let's say I bet on the Kansas City Chiefs and they're plus 140. And then the line now moves and I can get the chiefs at plus 165 at a specific sports book. Um, you know, I may be able to cash out of my chief's wager, um, for minus 155, so still 10 cents worse than my initial bet. However, I can now cash out at 55, play it back at 65 or whatever I said earlier. So, um, there are scenarios in which you can cash out and basically make money. 

05:08
When you hit that cash out button, what you are doing, if it's a straight wager, is you are betting on the opposite outcome of what you bet and the payout is there and your risk amount is what you, what you would have stood to make on the original wager. So it just takes a little bit of math, might have to put it into an excel sheet, but, uh, you can definitely find ways in which you could cash out if it's negative. Uh, either a to cash out at an arbable number versus market or b to play it back at a better number to give you a more favorable price. So it's possible to do it and to take advantage of it in a good way. But, as rob mentioned, 99 of the time the cash out is kind of for dummies, where they're just like taking an extra vig and you'd probably be better off just betting the other side at the best available price agreed. 

05:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, there's been times where I switched my position on a game. That happens where you bet something in the morning and then something happens over the course of the day where it's working to the extreme disadvantage of your bet from the morning and now you actually show positive expected value on the other side and you end up with a bigger play on the other side. I've the extreme disadvantage of your bet from the morning and now you actually show positive expected value on the other side and you end up with a bigger play on the other side. I've done that before. I shouldn't say that I've never done this stuff before, but in recent years I can't remember a time where I've used cash out. 

06:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. Okay, on to the next question here. When tracking bets, what criteria do you track? Does unit unit size, dollar amount change in different sports? For example, would a one unit bet in nhl be different than a one unit bet on a golf head-to-head matchup? 

06:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hate the notion of using units for the most part because, at the end of the day, it's all about your bankroll overall, right? So think you think just in terms of dollars. I mean that's what we're betting in terms of. We're betting in terms of dollars, right? I mean that's what we're betting in terms of. We're betting in terms of dollars, right? If you're able to put $1,000 on an NFL game but only 100 on a golf matchup, then your unit, by nature, is going to be larger on the NFL game, right? So, yeah, I mean, I never think of things in terms of units. 

07:01
It's just not the way I'm personally built, because I also don't even care about the units at the end of the year. I mostly care about the roi, right, how much volume I can get down, what my total monetary value is at the end of the season. So, um, I don't know. It's a weird question to answer because, yes, I bet more sport, more on sports than others. Um, but I don't track it as like this is my unit size for nfl. This is my unit size for nhl. This is my unit size for NFL. This is my unit size for NHL. This is my unit size for PGA. It's more so. This is just like dollars and cents. 

07:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, to be clear, as Rob mentioned, you know units is a thing of the past. I would never recommend anyone use units or even learn how to calculate it or do anything with that. There's really only one metric that's important when calculating your profit in betting, and that's ROI. Return on investment is your net profit or loss divided by your total handle, which is the total amount that you've bet across all the different bets. That is literally the only metric that matters. Clv is an indicator of future success. 

07:57
However, when you're evaluating how you're doing on a betting basis, you only should ever care about your ROI. It doesn't matter what your. Obviously, your profit is the one that's going to put money in your bank and stuff like that, but the roi is actually the indicator of the best indicator of profit, not units, right, yep, so we don't care about units, uh, but with that being said, he also asked here, like would a one unit bet in nhl be different than, like golf? Um, I would say like it's going to depend on how big you're, you're betting that sport, or what you can get down in that sport for a certain level. So, yeah, I I don't even know what the right answer for this question is because I don't. I don't even know what a you, what a unit is right. So, like, well, we we know what it is. 

08:39
But yes, most people do bet different amounts for different sports like for all you'd seldom find a guy who bets the same amount on every single sport, whether that be by choice or by being capped out by the market like we can explain how we calculate it on bet stamp. 

08:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, because we do show average units for every single or the units um profit or loss in units format. Uh, on bet stamp, and it's just basically we divide by your average price, right? 

09:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, your unit on bet stamp and it's just, basically, we divide by your average price, right? Yeah, your unit on bet stamp is just your, your total. Handle over your average bet size to get your total, your number of, like your units, right, but really that's just a uh, another way of calculating the ROI in a way that might be simpler for people to understand. 

09:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I don't know what else, like what else to say, other than I've never tracked in terms of units, it's always been monetary value. Um, publicly speaking, I don't like to tell people exactly what I bet. So if I do post publicly, um, I will use like a unit value, which is a simple uh division. Uh, you know what I'm saying. You know I I'll express things in terms of units, but it's just dividing by my standard bet size. 

09:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So up, so up. Next, um, this one is in regards to calcutta betting which, uh, you know, our friends, our good friends over at bet the process have launched a couple different calcuttas. So this question is from, also from our our, uh, our good friend, broner brown, for pound how does one judge if they have an advantage in a high stakes calcutta against other sharp players, especially since person a may not have an edge bending a given sport but may be using sharp projections for from somebody else for that sport? 

10:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
very tough. I've participated in a bunch of these. 

10:17
The reality is that at the end of the calcutta everybody thinks that they've done well if you don't, then you're in trouble yes, because everybody's using some set of numbers that they think is probably better than the sets of numbers that everyone else is using. So they're going to bid based off of that and at the end of it, you're going to have ev. The reality is there is no way to know like people are not participating in these things because they expect to lose. They they expect to win. 

10:45
Some are looking for a gamble overall, but at the end of the day, it's really going to come down to the projections that you're using, and the reality is a lot of the people that are participating in these are basing it off of market numbers as well, so everyone ends up with similar numbers. So it's very hard to gauge because at know, at the end of the day, obviously the bidding matters and the way the calcutta unfolds matters. However, when you put a group of sharp people together, most people really understand the bidding strategy. So it all comes down to who has the better projections in the long run, not for one single event yeah, what I would say is like there's no vig or anything being added. 

11:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you're, if you are gambling with friends in any capacity and there's no vig or rake or anything being taken in the pot, then for the most part, even if there is sharper players, you're not getting taken advantage of as much. If it's a group of sharp players just pitting together, most of the time it's literally just coin flipping, and and if you're tuning into the BTP Calcuttas, you're just watching a bunch of guys coin flip and enjoy it a nice way. 

11:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I would agree with that. 

11:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, I think there's probably people in there that have a small edge over everyone else, for some sports maybe, but like for the main, for the main sports where, like, the markets are quite big, like they're talking about doing like an NBAba playoff one, like your, your projection, like the, it is high stakes for sure, so there's money to be won in there. You know you're not going to go destroy like a 500 futures market to tell people the info, but it's going to be very like a small, a small edge yeah. 

12:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So like here's I'll give an example right like I participated in the nfl one, so did you um, which was, you know, got to a pretty large pot for that. But we did that auction midweek and by end of week, spreads change over the course of a given NFL week, so your EV at the time of the draft or at the end of the draft would look very different on Saturday and Sunday when there was actual games being played and some people did a much better job of calculating where those lines were going to go. Um. So there there is a like an edge to be had. It's not crazy, um, or anything, but you're, for the most part, you're right like it's pretty easy to derive some somewhat close to true numbers, um, especially like if you're doing an auction the day before the masters, the night before the master starts, like the market is kind of spoken already. 

13:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and by nature, like at calcutta, you're either going to like lose a lot of money or win a lot of money. There's really no like it's it's tough to basically break even. You know, your likely scenario is not that you break even, it's that you win or lose, given the nature, especially for some of these golf outright ones that they're doing. So even within having an edge like, it would take much more than a like four or five calcuttas for you to actually realize that in in true form. Because you're just like, if, if your guy, for example, happens to hit outright, you're winning money despite the fact that you know scheffler scotty scheffler may not have actually been a good value pick, I don't know, I didn't follow the numbers on that one. Right, it is what it is. Ok up next. Another DM question to Rob here. Hello sir, I'm a circles off listener from Italy. Is this our friend from Italy? 

13:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, it's a different guy. Different guy, I mean we need to start getting some affiliate sports book partnerships in Italy. Be when you hit the wrong button. 

14:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For sure he was looking for the you mad bro button okay, try it again. 

14:14 - Social Clip 1 (Caller)
Try it again, you mad bro. 

14:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There you go. That's our real friend from italy, okay, so hello, hello, sir, I'm a circles off listener from italy. First off, I want to congratulate you for all the great info. Really appreciate it. Uh, you just listened to episode 42 about bankroll management. Some weeks ago. I've started steam chasing to build a modest bankroll betting only NBA player props. Good for you, very nice. What type of betting system do you think could be the best for my situation? I don't have any model and for now I'm betting between one and five units. You know his unit size is fixed at three percent of his bankroll got it, so I I think this one's an easy to easy, one guard answer at the end yes, so it depends on how much you regards from it did he 

14:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
actually put. No, I would have laughed if he did. Um, it depends on how much you're able to get down on the props. First and foremost because if you are like starting to use some sort of kelly fraction or like confidence level staking and it's causing, like you end up betting a very, very small portion of your bankroll because you're doing that, then you're leaving money on the table. Like you might get to a point where you should just be max betting every single prop, maxim, brother, yeah, so that, like, if you're in the position to do that and you've grown your bankroll large enough, then maybe you just should be maxing everything. Now, if you're steam chasing um props, you're probably, you know, looking at some other site, um, which you're using as, like, the market leader in that prop, um, so it's very easy for you to calculate your Kelly if you want to do that. 

15:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now, if you may mean, the injuries. 

15:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so now in that case, you for you to calculate your Kelly if you want to do that. Now, if you may mean the injuries, yeah, so now in that case, you can't really calculate your Kelly in real time. So you're basically going to use some sort of confidence level staking where, if it's a big move, you're going to bet more. 

15:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, what I would say is like go, look at the, go, look at what the max bet is that you can get down total in summation of everything and down total in in summation of everything and then from there try to work it back and factor in that you may need to be a little bit more aggressive on these, given that a the nba season's almost done, you know playoffs are kicking off, um and or tipping off, and then on top of that um you're really looking at like you will be tapped out by the market at some point if you do continue to win and grow your bankroll. 

16:21
So you may want to, you may need to juice this one a little bit earlier versus later. So that's that's my only advice I'd give um, but for the most part, I think the three percent of bankroll as a one unit stake is is pretty standard, like that's fine, you know you could. It could be three, could potentially bring that up to five for props if the edge is bigger. But that's a very sound management and I'm glad you're enjoying the show and getting a lot out of the programming and say hi to our fellow Italian. 

16:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say, like, for people who don't understand what I mean about max betting everything. I'm not trying to encourage like problem gaming or anything, but I'll just throw out an example. If you're, if your bankroll is a hundred thousand dollars and you can only get $200 down on a prop and you're betting a dozen props a day, there's no point in you betting 200 on your biggest edges and 100 as like an average play. You might as well just be betting 200 on everything. So you have to scale according to what you're able to get down and what your bankroll is. 

17:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Up next a couple sports-specific tweets here. How will you, or why won't you, approach the USFL and why do you think there aren't many lines yet? So I'll leave this one to robs. I'm not really too familiar with that league. 

17:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why? Okay, let's start with why I don't think there's any lines yet. I think the vast majority of books are just waiting for someone else to post it in fox bet post. And then it was did you see the? Fox bet money. They the money lines that they uh posted did not even come close to matching the spreads no, it wasn't even close. 

17:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, the spread was like minus one and a half. It was like it was like it was a hockey spread or a base I don't know what they were doing, but it was definitely wrong. 

17:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, I think the uncertainty is why books are not posting because it's a new league. They don't really know what to expect. In fact, like when we've seen other leagues post early, like the xfl when it first started, you'd see totals move by like 10 points because sportsbooks had no idea what they were doing. So, um, I think that's part of it. I think general lack of interest. Frankly, I'm a football fan. I'm not saying that. Like you know, I'm mostly an nfl fan, but, um, like my friends who are football fans, no one's mentioned the u sfl. We get a new one of these every year, yeah, like, yeah. So I think that's part of it. 

18:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like sfl, the alliance. Whatever. 

18:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is gonna be a new one every couple years and from a from a sportsbook point of like, the only people that are going to be betting it this early are people who probably have an edge. So I think there's a lot of reasons you're not seeing lines right now. Uh, I do eventually expect that all sports books will have lines on the USFL with lower limits, um, so that they're not overexposed. Uh, if the league takes off, you'll start to see limits increase and people pay more attention on it. But it's like, why would I put a trading team together now to or even one trader who could be focused on something else, to post usfl lines? Uh, just to let sharp people bet into them right now doesn't really make a lot of sense. 

19:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I agree. Uh, okay, up next, why do the capitals, washington capitals, score at such a high percentage of their shots on goal? Do you hold this against them as something unsustainable? 

19:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So we're into the sports specific questions. Now We'll go through four or five. This one's from Dinky, so a hockey question that I think he's asking me specifically. It's challenging with hockey, I think, particularly in any sport. I'll draw this to any sport. But when you start to see an anomaly, like one team who you constantly see is benefiting in the quote of the rest of the year and future years and things like that this happens in baseball all the time oh, this team's Pythagorean runs, they outperformed it by 10 years by 10 runs. You look at the Green Bay Packers every year oh, they, you know they're outperforming their. Based off of their point differential, they should have won three less games. Well, every single year with Aaron Rodgers they should have won three less games. But hey, maybe there's something hidden there in that they have an ability to pull out close games. So I would look at past years For the Washington Capitals. They typically have a lot of shooters that shoot above league average and have historically been good shooters. So that's one. 

20:40
The second thing I will say is that we're looking at what's publicly available data to us. The teams, especially NHL teams, are working with much more sophisticated data. The data that we're looking at publicly has all sorts of flaws. That's just the case with data in any sport. As time goes on, you get more sophisticated metrics, so people take it um, you know I I don't want to say like with a, you know you should take it with a grain of salt is what I'm getting at because, um, you know I, I love when, like, trades happen in sports and people are like, oh, what the hell is this team doing? What could they possibly see? Well, it's like they are looking at so much more data than you actually have access to. Um, so that's just like, I guess, more widespread commentary, not specific to the Washington Capitals, but I would. My starting point would be has this been consistent in previous years? If so, it's less likely a fad and it's more likely a trend that will continue. 

21:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. I think that's a good answer. Moving on f1 question here a lot of lines for f1 betting very soft, oh yeah, very different between books, and many books seem not fully, uh, you know, taking into account where the drivers are on the starting grid. How long do you think this sort of edge will last? Well, not that long if we talk about on the podcast. Also, when are we getting f1 odds added to betstam? So we'll take that second question first. We don't. 

22:07
We are planning to add every single sport in the short term. We're launching a couple real cool things in regards to, uh, you know, odds comparison for more markets. So, um, more markets within the main sports as opposed to more sports single market. So we're probably going to leave off f1 for this season. You can always track them as a custom bet in the my Picks tab. Hit that blue plus button at the bottom right-hand corner. Track it custom For next season. 

22:33
My personal guarantee on this podcast we will have F1 lines up for next season, but for this season, unfortunately, it's going to be a pass In terms of the edges on F1, just off the rip, I'll say, like the, despite the fact that odds may be all over the place. If you do go actually shop around, you're not going to get more than a couple hundred dollars down. So for that reason I do think it's a little bit more sustainable um versus not, but for the most part um. You know, lines typically sharpen up mid-season anyway, so you had a first couple races. Books are going to see if they are taking a bath on f1. 

23:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They are going to take a look at it and then make sure that it's cleaned up for the next 17 or something races I had mentioned when we did the f1 pod, what, like three weeks ago, that there was a couple books that were keeping their lines up through practice and qualifying. That already no longer happens. So, like, already the edge is slightly going downhill. But I agree with johnny, it's not a major market, right, um? So there's not a lot of, like professionals that are really going to pay attention to formula one, uh, in order to get like a thousand bucks down over a weekend, or I mean it could be more than that or whatever. But uh, typically speaking, I'd say this would last longer than if it was a an edge in a major sport. And on the BetStamp one as a question as well. I'll just make a comment on that. 

23:51
Obviously, we get tons of requests to add this sport, to add this feature. We have to prioritize them as best as possible. I love Formula One, johnny loves Formula One, our office loves Formula One. We'd love to get formula one in the app, but the reality is there's way more people that are betting nba props than are betting formula one. So us adding secondary markets for um, secondary market comparison tools for other major sports is just way more bang for the buck for everyone. But at some point we will get. I don't. We're not going to get every sport, like we're not going to have snooker on. I mean maybe one point we will get. I don't. 

24:24
We're not going to get every sport in, like we're not going to have snooker on I mean maybe one day we will I mean, you're a big chess, better, so maybe one day we will have, we will have every chess in there, but we will um, but yeah, that's. That's just like I. 

24:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, I feel bad for people who are looking for f1 but in due time, when you want to find out where the best price is for Austin Matthews to score a goal, first off, you bet it everywhere you can. Second off, you got to be able to just go to one tool and figure that out. So that's something we're really working on and hoping to roll out soon. 

24:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, we know the time it takes on a daily basis to find Austin Matthews' best price, because our entire office is looking at it at the same time. So it's not any time. So it's not any time. 

25:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not any time, it's every time okay, ontario specific is it possible to make money simply opening up five or six sports books and betting into betstamp's best available price when the sports book is listed there? All right, absolutely Second off. If you're just betting the best available price, that doesn't mean it's a good bet. It means it's the best available bet for that, for that option. However, in some cases you can actually like look at the hold percentage and say, ok, best available is minus one, oh six. But if you want to play the other side, maybe you can only get plus one hundred. There's still a six cent window there in which you are kind of losing a little bit of vig, even versus the best available. That's not even factory and kind of what books are sharp, which ones are square and stuff like that. 

25:53
So just betting the best available, it's not going to make you money in the long term. Picking off really good numbers on the best available you know where, where all the other sites or some main sites are on the other end, will make you money. However, in ontario right now, with the bonuses being offered um, which are quite hefty, you can certainly make money just by betting the best available, including, if that was not, you know, a true plus ev bet, because when you factor in the bonus and just hitting that rollover, uh you're good. You know, I know tons of people already who you know are up well above five figures since ontario regulated just from uh, taking advantage of some bonuses, hitting some, hitting some lines, um, and having a ton of fun I should just point out as well, this is not an ontario specific answer either. 

26:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know the question was anywhere anywhere in the regular yeah it was an ontario specific question, but literally any any market really where you have access to multiple sports books and you can shop prices and get bonuses for deposits, you should have no problem making money yeah, and I think another thing to add is like we have a lot of markets here in ontario, but if you just have five sports books, you can still make some money, right, so it's not. 

27:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know, you don't need to have 20 sports books to make money. If you have 20, then you can make, you know, 4x the money as five. But it is what it is good stuff here. It was. It's been a really good first week and I think a lot of people are maybe sad with a lot of the sign up flaws and some stuff there. However, in terms of being able to take advantage advantage of, uh, of some nice prices and some more options and some more books, you know, ontario is now the spot. When you combine the gray area with the regulated market now, and the gray market, like Ontario, is the spot for sports betting you will not find a better spot. 

27:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And we know that there's like a dozen more operators coming to the regulated market in the next couple of months as well, which is huge. 

27:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh yeah, big time. Yep, right on cue. What has been your favorite sports book in Ontario thus far through launch week? 

27:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Me, bet Rivers to start Now. Listen, I posted this yesterday. Everyone has their own experiences with sports books based off the location they play, the style of better that they are. The sports book that caters to me is not going to be the same sports book that you're going to find the best, or so on and so forth. Here's what I advocate for Good user experience. I come from a product background. I worked at the score for a product manager for several years. I feel strongly about providing a good experience to the users and to me. 

28:22
Yes, betrivers, just like many other regulated books, are going to limit some winning bettors. That's going to happen. We know that's the nature of the industry right now. With that said, signup flow is easy. Website has a lot of options Everything like the bonus I can't promote. 

28:42
The rollover was very low let's put it that way right, which is great for bonus hunters and people who are looking to get the money into their accounts quickly, relative to some other competitors in market who are offering no props, no live betting, no mobile app, no desktop site, can't even sign up. Takes five days for you to get approved for sign up. Five days for you to get approved for uh, sign up stuff like that rivers to me, I think, hit the the nail on the head with the rollout in ontario. Personally, I'm sure down the road I'll probably not be able to bet there or have smaller limits, um, but from a pure user experience standpoint I think that they hit the mark in terms of their rollout in ontario I think rivers, uh, is one of the best right now of the books that you know. 

29:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like the only one that I kind of like the most right now off the rip is just mgm, because they they're they're not like asking you to verify your whole account up front, which I think is a good thing. As soon as you have to start uploading documents right away, it's like a negative user experience. Personally, I don't mind doing it, um, but like it's just for the average better who's trying to swap over? Um, it's, it really is tough, like you know. You're like oh yeah, I gotta sign up for a new book. Right off the rip they're asking you like fill out basically this whole questionnaire, your job, annual income, upload all these documents. Ends up becoming like ah, what's the point? You know what I mean. 

30:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
First experience with a website or an app is so crucial in the long run for retention. Obviously A lot of people will just give up in the signup flow or the deposit flow and they'll just be lost forever. I agree, mgm was pretty positive experience. But yeah, yeah, that's for me overall. Like that. That's just based off my experiences of testing out a bunch of different books this week. I'm not betting exclusively into one book. I've probably placed, um, you know, some books I can't, you know I haven't even placed a bet yet at them specifically. So I you know I'm not giving you the full picture, but I thought the rollout for rivers in terms of the way they marketed leading up to regulation day in ontario, the fact that they had no site downtime on that first day easy sign up, easy to get your money in, easy to roll over the bonus, lots of betting options I think I think that's exactly what most users would be looking for yeah, I agree, and for anyone who's still like, like, bet365 is already in canada. 

31:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But just without a doubt, that is the best sportsbook bet365 in terms of like. 

31:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Their layout of the site is amazing. On top of that, what I particularly love about 365 is the personalization component in the sense that, like I don't bet live swed soccer, so if I go to their website at 2 o'clock in the afternoon, they're not going to serve me up live Swedish soccer, like a bunch of other sites would, because that's the only live event going on. They're going to serve me up some hockey bets or some football during football season, because they know that's what I'm most likely to bet. So it's very easy. It's just a good experience overall. 

31:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
First day they did have some struggles but, um, I've played with bet 365 for many years and, um, I like, I like the sports book solid product all right up next, barstool sports book draft kings and fanduel, among others, have basically built a system where they get their content team to pump out picks with no information on why they're good picks, and people keep betting on them. Is this something that will be a trend and how will this evolve? 

32:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think it's going to be a trend. What's going to? What's going to stop this? Um, unless, like, a regulatory body steps in and starts saying like, no, you can no longer do this. If you're working for a sports book, you can no longer give out picks if you're affiliated with the sports weekend. I don't see that happening. Um, I mean literally, what's going to stop this? I I just I don't mind it here. Let me, let me just uh, preface this by saying I don't. Obviously sports books are trying to drum up interest around sports betting. They're paying influencers, they're paying content writers, whatever to give out picks because it's going to drum up interest. 

32:47
I just wish we could get to a point where people transparently track all the public plays that they give out. That's it. I mean, so many people are scared to have, like, a losing record out there, but it doesn't matter. As long as I, as a consumer, can quickly easily say this person has this record, as long as that's information available to me that I can sort through, then I have no issue with it. It's when people lie about their records, or they delete tweets, or they start counting leans as winning plays and so on and so forth, that it's completely misleading the public. So I don't like. 

33:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
When you know an average Joe who doesn't know any better can be completely misled, I think so I mean it's, it's so tough because, like it's just marketing you know what I mean Like there's they're not doing anything different than like a car company selling you the Ford motor trends truck of the year, where, with that magazine that's probably owned by ford, and like they get 100 awards. It's like, it's no, it's not really different than that. I think I've talked about it before, but just like I've no, I've no. Like obviously, if you're scamming people, that's tough, but like I really do, like I'm involved in the space now and like you know, I check twitter and stuff all the time, instagram, and like if there's people who are just paid by the sports books to give out picks, they're under so much scrutiny at this point right now that like they're just doing themselves and the sports book a disservice by like complaining all the time. 

34:17
Be like, oh, don't criticize, this is free, all this stuff. But at the same time, if they do go on a heater, they take such credit and then they, like you know, goes off for the book. So I don't really know how I exactly how I feel about it. Like I think it's definitely a trend is going to continue to happen, whether or not it's like good for the space or bad, like you know they're still. They're still giving people out information that you know they're they're using to maybe have some more fun betting. Whether that's going to win the money or not, it's probably not, but you know what I mean. 

34:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like if you're having fun and it's just like spending money, that's it. I agree and I disagree with, like the stuff that really bothers me in the space the most of everything. Obviously, I'm bothered by a lot of these things. For people who've listened for a long time, they would know this. This is coming from someone who used to sell picks myself as well. Um, but the thing that bothers me the most in the space is like, oh, he's putting out free picks on a daily basis. Who are you to criticize? Ok, well, I mean, I can tell somebody that I can fix their car and they can bring it to me, and then the car doesn't get fixed. I'd be like, well, it was free, like here's your car back and like it's not. I, I mean, it's not apples to apples, I get it, but the reality of the, the fact that just because it's free doesn't, you know, automatically make it like morally right you know what I'm saying no, you're, you're right. 

35:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
100. It doesn't make it morally right. If something you you still got. Rob said it best. 

35:39
Actually, you still got to be held accountable to the picks you're giving out and to the right and like to keep a record for yourself but like to actually say, oh, or is anyone going to outlaw this in the future? This is never going to happen, like you're just going to, it's it. This exists in every single industry, whether it be a fitness influencer trying to sell you on some diet program or some weight, some abs 60 day abs program, uh, which I'm in desperate need of, and, if anyone knows, a guy. But also, I think, just in general, like it exists in every single industry, whether it be like fitness, nutrition you know it might be food, might be the education industry, might be like people like, oh yeah, I can manage social media, this is like all the stuff I do and, like you know, nothing comes of it. So there's, there's gonna be posers and people who do stuff in every industry like this. We just got to accept that it happens and you know, if you, I guess, if you just ignore it, it'll go away. 

36:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We listen, we won't spend too much more time on it. The thing for me is that the repercussions of the sports betting side of things like problem gaming are not the same as like the repercussions of somebody buying some workout package that's a scam, you know what I'm saying. 

36:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like the repercussions of somebody who goes same thing though, because you just you bet money on someone's picks. Really they're just coin flipping. They don't have an edge. You bet money on. It's the addictive quality of betting. You lose a little bit. You buy this guy's gym package, yeah, for 500 a month. That's a bigger waste of money yeah, I, you could. 

37:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can argue that but expected value, unexpected value, but it's probably not leading to the same long-term consequences for the people who go off the rails yeah, no, that's, that's because someone can log on and and see a falsified record from someone and start thinking this I mean as dumb, like a lot of people that are listening to this are obviously nuanced bettors and it sounds completely insane. 

37:28
And then I tell you that the best like my best friend that I grew up with literally lost his shirt just buying picks and betting those picks because he thought these people were experts to the point where he had to declare for bankruptcy can no longer get a credit card like literally went broke from betting, knowing one of his best friends myself, who is like a nuanced better and you know got sucked down that road because there's like an addictive nature to it on top of it, whereas I don't know that the repercussions are the same. 

38:00
If you get scammed on like a hotel, like you're just not going to go to that hotel again and you're going to do your due diligence the second time around. But when you're buying sports picks and you're losing and you're constantly being like force-fed no, this is, I'm going to win in the long run. You just got in on a bad streak and whatever, and you keep betting this stuff and then you know you start I got to make my money back. I got to do this like that doesn't happen in in other industries. 

38:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's just my my two cents agree to disagree, but that I just feel like and maybe it's more personal for me because I know so many, um people who've been affected by problem gaming, so my perspective might, might just be a little bit different I definitely know a lot of scamming touts don't get me wrong that are just selling picks and not, and have like 700 000 followers on instagram and are selling picks, slinging picks, making set well over seven fig, literally seven figs a month. Yeah, slinging picks and, um, yeah, it's obviously brutal and they're they're scamming a lot of people, but I mean, it is what it is. That is nothing I could do about it. Uh, okay, up next a couple bet stamp questions on bet stamp what is a good clv percentage to aim for? What percentage might indicate long-term or sustained success? 

39:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
these ones are always challenging to answer, because timing of the bets is also important as well, because for one like, if you're betting openers, you're gonna have way lower limits than somebody who's betting on game day, so your CLV is going to need to be much higher on those to have the same expected value of someone who can bet a lot larger on game day. The answer is you need enough CLV to overcome the big that you're betting into. 

39:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's the real answer, but it's not like apples to apples comparison yeah, I'd say I mean, if I'm, I'll just give out some tangible numbers, like if you're picking off stale lines from a stale book, like you're going to probably on betstamp specifically, you're going to want at least like 2.3 to 2.5 clv, uh, if not greater, if you are originating, um, it's, it's also rob didn't really mention this but it depends on the book as well. You know BetStamp tracks the CLV against the book that you track the bet at. So if you track a bet at a square book and they don't move the line, then you're not going to get any CLV when in reality, you know Penny or Chris may have moved that like a point or two right? So what I'd say is, if you're tracking against Pinnacle, then we do actually include the VIG in there, so they typically have a lower hold. You're probably going to want, you know, still at least 2%. 

40:29
If you're getting like a 0.5% CLV on BetStamp, it's not enough to actually overcome the VIG long-term. As mentioned, though, it really does depend on like which book you're tracking it against, because some of them don't move as much. We are rolling out a feature soon where you will be able to track your clv against a specific book, so you can just set that to like hey, um, what would my clv have been against the circa closing line, and then from that you'll be able to actually get like a truer indicator. And then I can give out, once we launch that feature, maybe target percentages per book for certain markets. That might be helpful. I'm happy to provide that. 

41:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't mind promoting content from other sources if it's good content, and I will say, like seven years ago, the concept of CLV was very foreign to me when I was betting and I started to learn about closing line value, and Pinnacle actually has a ton of great articles. For anyone who just wants to Google Pinnacle closing line value, specifically the Pinnacle operator I can't remember the guy's name, joseph Budakal. Do you know who I'm talking about? I think that's the guy's name. Anyways, could be out to lunch here. Regardless, I learned a lot from just Googling Pinnacle closing line value and getting a lot of links from Pinnacle. Yes, pinnacle is an operator, and I have said before, take that with a grain of salt. The articles are really well written, though, and, um, pinnacle is not known for, you know, trying to pull one over your eyes, right fair enough. 

41:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Next question in betstamp you can look at roi by sportsbook, which is an incredible feature. In your experience, are your profits wildly different between different sports books? I would guess that you could notice a difference between the market makers and the others, but are there other notable differences even within each group? I can take that one real quick yep, absolutely. Your profit, and your roi specifically, is going to be different drastically, like within different bookmakers. Um, reality is this is going to be able to. 

42:24
If you are someone who is playing the market or even playing your own stuff that you're originating, being able to know which sports books you're winning at and which sports books you're losing at is is like. This was the most eyeopening thing for me when I was on my come up, when I was learning how to do this stuff. This was the most eyeopening thing for me was that I would always win at certain books and lose at certain books, and why was this the case and what can I do to solve that? I'm telling you guys this anyone who's listening to this is a free podcast. You can you can just track everything by sports book, see where you're winning, see where you're losing and then don't play at the sports books that you're losing at. However, I'm very confident that no one here who's listening, who's not already doing that, is going to switch and doing that. So I don't even mind saying that, but it's the best free advice you will get. 

43:06
Do not bet at the sports book that you continually lose at. You're losing there for a reason. It's not dumb luck, you're not. Oh, it's cursed. My account's cursed. No, it's not. That's there for a reason. You guys will understand it once you start tracking everything by book. If you don't track by book, you need to start tracking by sports book. When you do that, your whole betting process is going to change. I guarantee it 100. 

43:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agree, this was a conversation we had with michael craig, who's a pro sports. Better, um, we had on the podcast, probably about half a year ago now, where he gave out the same advice and noticed that he was regularly losing at the same sports books and regularly winning at the same sports books and regularly winning at the same sports books. And you know, you have that information available to you. The only caveat I will add to what Johnny was saying completely agree with that Track your sports books where you're winning, where you're losing. Just don't get hung up on small sample sizes either. Right, like, if you bet 10 games at a sports book and you go three and seven, that's not something I would say, oh you, you know I'm done here because I can't win at you know, caesars, because I went three and seven, like, wait to build up a longer sample. But you should also be able to see this in terms of closing line value too, right? Um? 

44:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you, you shouldn't only be tracking your roi as a metric, you want to track clv as well yeah, and then last one for a pro tip for anyone on the come up is uh, you don't actually need to track it by sports book if you're trying to do analysis. What is easier? If you want to go one step further, track it by odd set. So if there is a sports book that offers the same odds as another sports book that's essentially the same thing you can combine those two together to get a better sample size. For example, if you're playing at barstool and bet rivers as both it can be set, you can combine those into one. If you're also playing at unibet, you combine that in there and then now you track by odd set instead of by sportsbook. You now have an additional sample size you add in for free it's a smart pro tip. 

44:53
That's a pro pro tip, it's a pro tip. What direction do you guys see bet stamp going in the next two to five years? Any major changes or plans in the works? You might as well read the next one as well, because they're like the what improvements to bet stamp do you hope will roll out in the next six months? Also, regarding the app, is there any way to delete a tag after you made it? I really should got the answer that beforehand delete a tag after you made it. Um, I don't know either. 

45:19
I'll get that I'll get that answer for you right now I've never had. 

45:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is two-thirds of betstam's executive team, by the way. Six month plan. Hey, julian, two-year plan, five-year plan, and can we delete tags? 

45:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
can you delete a tag after you made it in betstam? 

45:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you can really tell the preparation that goes into these q and a's. 

45:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think we prepare well for these. I honestly, I just I didn't see this question. We sort the questions usually sorted them and this was the last one, so I didn't get to them, but we should get. We should be able to get the. 

45:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't remember seeing that that the josh question when I saw maybe I did and I just like didn't even process it, I was really rattled this afternoon. I'm sorry to take this off the rails but I was so rattled that dave rober, dave Roberts, you were on a call or something. You didn't even see this happen. Clayton Kershaw had a perfect game going through seven innings, hit his 80 pitch count. They put Dave Roberts pulled them Perfect game. There's been 23 perfect games in the history of baseball. Now I get it that they didn't have the spring training this year. You know he has taught he's had Tommymmy john surgery before. How do you pull a pitcher? Seven innings, perfect game, 80 pitches. So I was actually like sorting through these questions while I was watching that happen. I I was actually legitimately rattled. 

46:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This is also right after we just looked at leafs playoff ticket prices and you were also rattled by that which we have, we have since learned, was a facade. 

46:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was a facade. Yes, I went into a very um, what I don't know, I want I want to say irate, whoever asked this question. 

46:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm actually sure I can't believe this. Yes, you could definitely delete a tag and it's very simple. You just go and click the x on the tag and then it's gone. But no, that's not. It's not a fence. 

47:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sometimes, a little hard. No, no, no. But I mean the fact that neither of us knew that on top of it is I, I don't, I've never like. 

47:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is it intuitive though? Yeah, it's just easy. It's like you go edit the bet and then delete the tag. 

47:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm just wondering and do that I'm just wondering on our end if it we need, like a, a redesign to make it more intuitive no, we should be okay, and now that's answered here. 

47:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um kershaw man, that sucks like there's not. There hasn't been a lot of perfect games in lb mlb history 23. 

47:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's been 23, like he's thrown a no hitter before I get it. 

47:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So it was through seven. Two innings left, correct, so six more now. Six up, six down, he's got a perfect game correct. 

47:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now all these pitchers are at the 80 pitch count like everyone in the league. Because of the short spring training, they don't want to push him more than 80, so I think that there's like okay, past 80 pitches. It's going to increase his likelihood that he's going to blow out his arm again. What's the percentage increase? It's probably pretty low. I think you should give the player the option for one, but on top of if you're like, if I'm dave rogers. 

47:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If I'm kershaw, I would sacrifice two months of being on on the dl. 

48:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could be the entire year I would sacrifice the year for a perfect game. I think any pitcher would. I I don't know that for sure, but I do think any pitcher would to be on that list of history. Now, if you're dave roberts, you're the manager of the dodgers, just go up to kershaw and be like listen, buddy, I'm pulling you at 100 pitches, no matter what that's the count, I'm gonna give you the chance to do this. 100 pitches. You're coming out now. You'd never actually pull him at 100 pitches if he's going, but you got to make the guy throw strikes, less pitches, hit, walk, take the guy out of the game. You know what I'm saying? 

48:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
that there's tough to get pulled at at the 80 pitch count because, like kershaw's, definitely had games where he's throwing like upwards of 120. Yeah, it's like he could have got a perfect game here, but who knows, maybe he comes out for the eighth, just gets it allows a hit right away. Who knows? 

48:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yes, now we have to talk about bet stamps six month, two year, five year plan. I maybe, maybe we might as well get into 20 year plan, 50 year plan. Yeah, and rob's retirement plan. 

48:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So here's what I'll say. Um, you know we're not going to talk too much about like the far out future, but for bet stamp, in the short term, you know what we really want to do as a company. The biggest thing we can do is we know using multiple sports books is the answer and is the way you know, to have have more fun betting sports, make more money betting sports. I really enjoy it for what it is, which is probably the best hobby in the world, at least in my opinion, and uh, it's just so hard to do that right now. So we're basically working on ways every day where we can make it easier for you guys and for us and for bettors all across Canada and the United States to leverage multiple books and manage them with ease. A bunch of tools coming that will hopefully make that easier In the very short term. We already hinted it earlier in the episode we are gonna be launching more of a props and game props comparison tool in addition to our full game and first half comparison tool that we kind of have right now. So you know, if you want to find the best odds on scotty barnes to get a double double, that'll be one click now and you can search every single book available in canada, the united states, and you'll be able to find those, the best odds there, and click directly through that. So. So I think we're looking at that and then you know, we are really hoping to get a redesigned accounting feature. Something that I think is super important, that a lot of people need right now is the ability to actually like have a spot to manage all of their different sports book balances where they're depositing, where they're withdrawing, which accounts are verified, how they can get the money out and in. So that's something that we're also looking to tackle in more than a few ways in the upcoming future. So those are probably the main things that are going to be launching over the next couple of months. 

50:32
We did just roll out golf for anyone who is a little bit more new to the pod or hasn't doesn't, use Betstamp, so you can track golf matchups and we also have golf futures. So you know, if you, if you want it outright master's odds, you're able to go on bet stamp and check, you know, every single book within canada, in the us, and that will now transition over to the rest of the sports as well. So you got the nba playoffs in full swing right now and for nhl playoffs, you know when you not. You want to dunk some money, like. You're talking about dunking some money on the leafs to win the cup and you just did. You say dunk or dunk, dunk, like. If you want us just straight waste money on the leafs winning the cup, then at the very minimum, what you should be doing there is getting the best odds. If you're gonna put any money on that, get the best odds for, like, please please. 

51:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
The other day we saw raptors uh, raptors to win the nba title on on just as an example one one book, it was plus 4,000, and on another book, plus 8,000. 

51:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, insane. By the way, if you're betting a long shot, you have to odd shop. A lot of people, even buddies of mine, are like oh yeah, I'll toss a hundred bucks on the wraps to win the NBA, to win the chip, as they said actually to me. But they said I'll toss a hundred on the wraps to win the chip, as drake would say as well, you're getting four thousand returned. If you just bet at another sports, we're getting eight thousand returned, like it's literally double your bet, four thousand dollars. If you put it in terms like that. No one is placing the bet at 40 to one. They're placing at 80 to one, same thing with like leafs, wraps, jays, anywhere. 

52:01
Obviously we're talking toronto specific, but if you're gonna bet a big outright, like any of the big dogs, you have to odd shop. You know it's. It's literally such a big difference in terms of the money you'll win. In terms of the percentage it's very similar, but the money you can win is like it's. It's actually mind-blowing how much you you would actually save if you just line shopped and then that one time you do hit, like when the leafs hit, win the cup. They will eventually win the cup when they hit that, like you got to be able to get the best odds and be like probably for a hundred dollar better, I'll probably like a five to six hundred dollar difference in some scenarios, which which will make up for the six years prior that you dunked away a hundred. 

52:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say too there's like the the opposite side of things, which is affects like way less betters do do this. Way fewer bettors do this. I should speak english on the on this podcast way fewer bettors do this, but a lot of people will do to win amounts as well, right? So some people say if the leafs win the, the stanley cup, I want to win 2 000 bucks and they'll risk a certain amount to win 2 000. So by odd shopping as well, you're now risking less to achieve that. So if they do lose, you're actually losing less. Obviously, achieve that. So if they do lose, you're actually losing less. Obviously, we want the scenario where we win, but obviously losing less as well is not a bad thing necessarily. 

53:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There is a high amount of people I know that bet whether it be $100 or $500 or $1,000, on the Leafs to win the Cup every single year. 

53:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And now they're all living on the streets. They need to move into the bet stamp house. 

53:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They lost it all. They lost. They've lost it. Like, don't get me wrong, they've lost, you know, 20 50 years in a row. Potentially for some people you know you've lost 50 years in a row. Are you talking about your dad or something? No, my dad doesn't bet. Okay, the one year where they do win the cup, you got to make all that back. You got to be able to line shop and make that back. Like do not be betting the least right now, like plus 700, win the cup, and you can get them like 500 points higher. Agreed. Is that it for the questions? That is it for the questions? Um, how, how long are we at? Right? 

53:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it doesn't matter, we're going. We're going to the next segment. 

53:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Are we going to the next segment? Oh yeah, we're gonna save for next week. No, no, no we're doing it. 

54:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We're doing it I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad. 

54:06 - Social Clip 2 (Caller)
I get peeved. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you? 

54:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
care, it's only a game, it's only a game. 

54:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why do you have to be mad? You say Edmonton, it's a minus 37, minus 38. It's the winter months. I love that one. All right, I think we got six this time. All right, I think we got six this time. 

54:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Most of them are mine, Johnny, so you'll be probably seeing a lot of these. I submitted two, I think if they made it in here. One was a long one, a lot of screenshots. Did that make it in Notepad. 

54:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, I know which one you're talking about. 

54:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, we'll just discuss Save that. 

54:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, I know which one you're talking about. Oh man, Because. I search by our group chats, by tweets. I probably put the proper hashtag. I don't know what you did. That's my bad. 

54:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No no, it's on me. That was a good one too. We can still talk about it. All right, let's kick it off. 

54:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, all right, numero uno. Oh, I love this one. By the way, I love the handle, especially Big Dicks Picks At. Way, I love the handle, especially big dicks picks at big dicks picks on twitter. Mlb prop betting is easy. Just bet vladdy jr to get at least one rbi. He's gotten one in every game so far and everyone has been plus money for him. Okay, it's like probably two games in. There's literally three games. It was the first homestand, which was, by the way, texas rangers pitching, very different from what it's going to be now. I can't get over the handle. Sorry, I'm still laughing a little bit, but. 

55:32
But this is very much a definition of like a trend, without accounting for price period. Um, this is like under the assumption that, okay, he's plus money every game, he's going to get an RBI in at least half the games or whatever. I'm going to keep betting it, or he's going to keep getting RBI because he's just gotten an RBI previously. These are very, very bad ways to handicap not only props but anything. A lot of people say the trend is your friend. It really is not in a lot of cases. So what I would encourage anyone to do if they are going to bet props is always try to put a probability on something and then compare it to the line being offered. Or you could put a probability on something by just looking at another sports book that's taking more money on the prop or whatever. But regardless, don't just assume that something that's happened literally three times in a row is going to happen going forwards. And then, on top of it, don't assume that you're always going to get the same price either. 

56:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's going to be different based on the game total and the position he's in the lineup and all that stuff. But, um, mlb prop betting not that easy actually it's. It's you could beat it for sure, but it's not like the easiest thing in the world. Definitely that's not going to be a winning strategy. Uh, over you know, a multiple season sample size, just picking one player. Yes, if vlad has a good year, probably would win that. However, if he's mashing rbis is not going to be plus money every game, if he really is mashing rbis that much. So, yeah, I agreed. 

57:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, sorry about that, uh cap, cap and dad, cap and dad. What a handle, though. What a handle. You and you also know that there's somebody out there with big dicks picks with an s at the end, though because he made it, he made his handle with a z at the end, so it's like he tried the S and it was already taken For sure. All right, number two, all right. This is our friend Dom, who was our first ever guest on Circles Off abbreviated interview. That's when we were back in the days of doing half the episode as interviews. Remember that. 

57:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know we did that one from the remote setup at least. 

57:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, we did uh, dom is have been having a bad run of it, with a lot of his teams blowing uh, four goal leads three, four goal leads in the span of nine days. Um, and he tweeted the leafs are doing their absolute best to make it. So. Now someone responds to this tweet. Um, that's Dom. Why'd you bet on the Leafs playing a rookie goalie in the second half of a back-to-back going up against one of the best and highest scoring teams in the league in their own barn? That bet deserves to lose. There's two things I hate about this. One is the timing of the wager, which is when Florida went ahead of toronto in the game, but that's irrelevant to everything else. The second thing I hate about it is everything that's mentioned in this tweet is something that would be factored into the price. Dom's price like it's not like any team is at home. 

58:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're at home. 

58:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, like it's not, it's nothing that is catching him off guard. It's not like you know. If this was like, why'd you bet on the Leafs? They couldn't. You know, nobody knows this, but they were all out at a nightclub last night partying until four in the morning and the game was at 10 AM. 

58:55
Okay, that's like some sort of information where I can understand why someone might say that they're playing a rookie goalie yeah, that's known. Second half of a back-to-back yeah, absolutely, that's known. They're going up against one of the best teams in the league yeah, that's known. In their own barn, like it's an away game. All this stuff is known. So I mean, it's a matter of perception, but obviously he bet on them because he thought there was value at the price that he got, and that's what the most important thing is in sports betting at the end of the day. So, for one, don't chastise people for picks after the game is losing or the team that they bet on is losing. Like this tweet could have came out before the game started very easily, considering the timing of both of them. But that's the first thing. The second thing is like, bring up, if you're gonna chastise somebody for for stuff like bring up stuff that's not being accounted for in market, or something that they may have possibly overlooked, rather than a bunch of information that's already out there. 

59:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Good with me I mean I, I agree 100, nothing else, nothing else to really add here, all right, number three. 

01:00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, um, this one. Johnny gets frustrated by these. I like when, including including these. Kelly, in Vegas, april 10th, tweets out four picks for the Masters Round four. They're all big favorites, including Jon Rahm. Minus 230 over Tiger. Britco says that's not value Laying 200 to win 100, lol. 

01:00:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No wonder your picks suck First time it was 230 to win 100. 

01:00:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, but fair enough, we get it Value. 

01:00:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean listen, ROM minus 230 over Tiger. I don't know what it ended up closing at. I don't know what the value on that actually was. 

01:00:44
I believe it closed like minus 325. So it probably was value in this scenario. But either way, that is no, you know, laying 200 to win 100 has zero impact. If you explain it to someone, if any of your buddies say this and you're listening, any of your buddies say like, ah, there's no value in betting like minus a thousand. Just like offer them something where their odds should be minus a thousand and see if they bet it. See, like you know what I mean. Offer them a, for example, like pick a number between you know one and a hundred and if I like, if I get it, you know you lay minus a thousand. That I don't get it. That should be 10 to one and there's a hundred numbers. Like insane value, right there, Right. So it's like, oh, there's, there's such a good value on the minus a thousand, Right. In those scenarios you can actually see it because it's a you know, simple mathematics game and sports bang. It's just don't see it like oh, how could he be minus 200 over tiger woods? I. 

01:01:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I like to use the dice example because a lot of my friends do this, lots of people that do this. We've talked about this many times. Well, people pick an arbitrary number, like I'm not going to lay more than minus 160 on a baseball team, I'm not laying minus 200 on an NHL team. Or they just perceive that there's no value on betting favorites. Well, it's simple probability, right. Like if you offer someone a dice roll and say you know, if you roll one, two, three, four or five, you win. I'll give you minus 200 on that. They would, of course, take it every single time, and this is a very easy point to get across, because you're 83 to win. You win on five of the six numbers. You only lose with the six. Who would not bet that at minus 200? 

01:02:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, and fyi, it sucks to lose those bets. That's why people are like this. But there is value, of course. 

01:02:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I mean there could be value at any price. Is what I'm trying to get across here. Doesn't matter what the vig is. I'm not suggesting you go out and bet everything that's minus 1000 and parlay them all together, whatever. But if your probability is higher than what the bookmaker's probability is, there is perceived value there. 

01:02:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah period I literally lost a bet on the kansas city chiefs second half versus the bengals in that playoff game. In like in, I bet them live at the half and I lost. It was like minus 700 and something and it lost. And then after it lost, I was like I fucking hate this. I'm never betting of minus 700 favorite, ever again. And you I know the feeling because it gets into that you're like, oh my god, they were literally mine. I can't believe I laid minus 700 and it lost. Like it's such a bad feeling. But the reality is like there's value there and, sure enough, next day right back to the well, but it is what it is. 

01:03:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I understand why people don't like laying big, big fans ask every under under and ask every hockey underdog better this year how their season is going and how much value they've gotten out of those plays, just because they don't want to bet favorites in a historic a favorite, sorry, a season where favorites are winning at a historic rate values, value period. That's the point I want to get across. All right, uh, I got I got this tweet from uh aaron water show who said I spit out my coffee. We'll play the clip here from tiktok. Uh, what's the easiest sport to bet on? 

01:04:01 - Social Clip 2 (Caller)
it's the easiest sport to bet on. Nba regular season my regular season it's like a pretty good baseline of how players are going to play each night, like in the playoffs. Dudes get up more for big games. They play harder on defense but, like you kind of know, certain guys are going to go off on certain nights. I gotta go with football I think football is easiest. 

01:04:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I feel like I know the most about football. Right, I have more luck, almost like nba spreads and stuff like that and football. 

01:04:22 - Social Clip 2 (Caller)
You can totally like have an idea of how the game is going to be played. Yeah, it's more easier to like predict the pace of the game right and like how it's gonna go. There's also nothing better than betting straight up. 

01:04:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually have a pretty good time betting hockey I've been live betting hockey totals and, I'm not gonna lie, it's been the most fun way outside of football to bet I keep betting on the rangers, and here's what I do when Igor Shosturkin is in net, I bet the Rangers. 

01:04:44 - Social Clip 2 (Caller)
When Alexander Georgiev is in net, I bet the over Foolproof plan. 

01:04:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Listen to me. Listen to me. 

01:04:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm telling you okay now to each their own in terms of the easiest sports to bet on but what are you criticizing? 

01:04:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the whole part about the easiest sport or the last part? 

01:05:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
everything about this video bothered me. Every overtime locks, every piece of this video bothered me because, first and foremost, okay for the nba regular season. In nfl, massive limits, right. Like you couldn't pick like every single, every single video of the easiest sport to bet on should be something like I don't know, find me a sport that's got low limits, like think of one, I mean snooker, yeah, exactly, curling, curling, right, something like that. Like those are the easiest sports to bet on. Period. As soon as somebody names like a major sport, there should be like a buzzer that plays with a horn right away that says because it's yeah but not. 

01:05:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But also like, not the derivative markets of the of the sport, like the actual main game, correct nba regular season spreads. Fyi, the regular season is actually more variable than the playoffs. Is what he's 100 wrong on. It's like the nba, the nba regular season. Every day there is at least one to five players. That are what am I saying? One to five, there's probably like one to ten players ruled out per day on average that move the spread like a point or two. 

01:06:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
There was a. There was a stat the other day how many players have played in every game this season. There's only four in the NBA. Who was it? 

01:06:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know we got to pull up. But yeah, like people get ruled out all the time, it's not like Paul George is out, oh, giannis is resting Like that is the most variable thing you will happen. That does not happen in the playoffs. I mean, golden state did rest, steph curry, uh, when they were up three, nothing in the series, lost the game, played him the next day one. I mean that is just showboating because the nba has not that much parody anymore. But like, the regular season is way, way, way more variable in the playoffs. 

01:06:51
In the playoffs you at least can get the starting lineups prior to the game with certainty. You know that yannis is not. If he's injured he's not going to play, but he's not going to ever rest you. So that alone is good. 

01:07:02
And then, second, you actually get a more accurate representation of minutes, because they're they're not on minutes counts and you know, in some blowout games they might just like be like okay, you know, even a team like milwaukee is one of the best teams in the league. We'll be like all right, we're down 20. All right, we're just going to give up in the third and let's take a lot of the starters out. Blow up minutes. Give the bench guys some time. We don't care about this one win, whereas in the playoffs you're down 20. Let's say it's 2-2. In the series You're down 20. In the third quarter your guys are going to go off. He knows which guys. He said in the playoffs some guys just go off and that's what he can't predict. Like that's funny. And then also for the nfl stuff, he knows football though. He knows that the game. 

01:07:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's easy to predict the game flow, yeah I mean he knows, he knows, he knows football, but as if nobody else in the world is watching football and knows football. 

01:07:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
As for the Rangers goalies, when those guys are in, ruled in or out unsuspectingly, he is right in a sense that the line will move to that, but it's there for a reason. So I don't want to even criticize that, because if he was just doing that when, let's say, a was supposed to start and then B was ruled in right away, he would actually have an edge. 

01:08:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If he just bet it at the previous number, however, I would go ahead and assume he's not betting it at right away and within one second exactly, and therefore, yes, add a negative if you play that's sort of the point I was going to make on the last one is there's two goal, there's two goalie situations in the nhl which are like wait for confirmation and then you have basically like 20 seconds to react. One is the rangers, the other one's the lightning. Um, but yeah, you know, if you're saying, okay, if shisterkin starts, I'm gonna bet the rangers, if you already have starts, I'm gonna bet the over. As soon as that confirmation happens, that number is moved. Like the information is known, the market is already reacting to that information. So now, if you're going to go after the fact, now listen, I'll give this guy the benefit of the doubt and say he's not. 

01:09:07
But the reality is a lot of people out there will wait till the last minute. How many times do you hear this? Right, like this guy's a net, I'm betting the over. It's like okay, that information was known three hours ago and the line already moved. Now, that's not to say you're completely wrong, but you have to think that the market did not react enough to that goalie change. And no one ever says that, ever. 

01:09:29 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I got the players here, by the way Mikael Bridges on the Phoenix suns, kevin Looney on the warriors. By the way, mikael Bridges On the Phoenix Suns, Kevin Looney On the Warriors, denny Avdija On the Wizards, sadiq Bey On the Pistons and Dwight Powell On Dallas. Also, it's five, five players. 

01:09:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So those are the only guys that play in every single game. That's pretty impressive. 

01:09:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absurd Five players that have played every game. It's not. I mean. I understand it takes a toll on the body. 

01:09:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Kevon Looney's a center also. That's even more impressive. 

01:09:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. Big man, do we have more? I think we have more. One more, two more. 

01:10:04 - Social Clip 1 (Caller)
Go ahead Two more. 

01:10:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, this one is a very popular one that went around. Let's just play the audio of here. It's a little bit longer, and then we'll get to the commentary. 

01:10:17 - Social Clip 1 (Caller)
All right, fellas, if you're watching this video, you're probably in the sports betting. Something happened last night in the industry that you probably didn't catch, but, lucky for you and unlucky for her, detective Chuck was on the case. I'm about to show you what happened Just behind me this is. Taylor Mathis, otherwise known as TMathSports. She does content for Sportsbook Superbook Sports Now, whether you want to call her a handicapper an entertainer, I don't care. 

01:10:46
Regardless, she's got 36,000 followers on Twitter and she tweets out plays. And she did something last night that is a big no-no. It was during the national championship game and honestly it blew my mind. After touting UNC Moneyline all day, moneyline, she goes ahead and tweets out a halftime loving that UNC Moneyline I took right now, which is understandable. She's feeling herself, she's taking a little victory lap, they're up by 15. I mean, what could go wrong? And as we all know by now, kansas comes back. They win the national championship. My dude, remy Martin, goes absolutely nuclear in the second half. But because that one bozo stepped out of bounds, kansas did not cover. Unc covered Very important. 

01:11:21
But so far Taylor has done nothing wrong. All she did was take a victory lap, get made of a fool of herself and probably wind up on all takes exposed. But whatever, nothing wrong has happened so far Until now. She comes back after the game, 1225 AM, she tweets. This is actually amazing because I thought I took UNC Moneyline. I actually took UNC plus four and a half. Gee, golly, isn't that convenient. I mean, come on, how stupid do you think? 

01:11:44
Detective Chuck is Ridiculous. A man of the people steps in his name's Frick Trades and he says obviously, post receipts if you want anyone to believe you but probably no one cares anyways To which she replies can't post bet slips when I work for a sports book. Sorry, I mean, it just feels like she's making up rules at this point Whether it's true or not, I don't know. I just, at this point, I feel like I'm in the wild west and the worst thing. One thing you can never do, is delete your L's when you're in sports betting, and that's what she does. She goes back, she deletes any and all tweets about UNC Moneyline, about correcting herself and putting UNC plus four and a half. It's all gone. Luckily, detective Chuck, sherlock Holmes, whatever you want to call me got a few screenshots, so now we know. 

01:12:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Detective Chuck, the man of the people, chuck. 

01:12:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Goldberg. I love the backing track in that video as well. Don people chuck goldberg. 

01:12:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, love the backing track in that video as well. Don't know what that was rivals are tick tock video. 

01:12:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, it rivals our circles off. 

01:12:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh intro definitely it does this guy just make videos like this? Do you know? 

01:12:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
anything about this guy, zach? Okay, this obviously blew up on my timeline for obvious reasons. Um, I will. This is not going to be a personal attack on Taylor Mathis or anything. We also have a tweet from Chelsea Messenger, who comes in and says she's not selling pics. Seems like there's better ways to use your time than to put people down. Literally could go through the entire tweet thread and the replies and a bunch of stuff that triggered me. 

01:13:13
In general, this is 100% an absolute no-no. I don't care who you are when you have that many followers. It's completely irresponsible for one, but on top of it, it just bothers me because people will lose bets. I don't understand what the the issue is with people losing bets. Why is it so hard to say I lost a bet on this team that I liked beforehand, even if I did actually bet UNC. If this was me personally and I bet UNC four and a half instead of Moneyline, but I put it out there that I bet Moneyline I would never, ever, ever take a victory lap for the four and a half Like. What do you possibly expect to come from that? I mean, there's nothing good that can possibly come from that. 

01:14:04
So listen, a lot of people think Chuck's video was over the top. I get it. I get why people might think that it's a great video. I actually think it is a great video. It's entertaining, gets to the bottom of everything. Everything it was done in a manner that was not like derogatory in any way, um, but god, when I see stuff like that, it drives me insane. 

01:14:26
It's also another reason why, uh, I mean, I feel that bet stamp is very valuable. It's not to turn this into a BetStamp promo, but we can verify plays, get people out there to use BetStamp, because this stuff cannot happen on our platform and it literally happens on Twitter every day and people who have 36,000 followers or more are doing it every single day and it goes unnoticed. So I do like that people are bringing this to the forefront. So I do like that people are bringing this to the forefront. And Chelsea's response again, nothing against anyone, particularly here, but it goes back to what we were talking about earlier in the show about the free picks, right? Well, she's not selling picks. That doesn't matter. That doesn't allow you to be completely morally irresponsible just because you're not selling something. I mean she's trying to grow her brand. 

01:15:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Selling her personal brand Exactly. 

01:15:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To eventually sell something, even if she's she's. She's growing her personal brand, which is fine, but they do it in a manner that's morally responsible. 

01:15:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what I'll, ethically responsible so I think straight up on this, like that was a great video, very entertaining. Um, like anyone who follows this girl, again, nothing, nothing against. I don't know. I never even heard of her before this. 

01:15:42
Like, how are you tailing those picks, knowing that she even if this is true, let's say for whatever reason she actually was telling the truth, she, she actually bet the four and a half set of money line, took the vic lap and then came back. It's like oh, I actually bet this. What a lucky day. How are you following this girl's picks? She doesn't even know what she bet. Like, is that not a bigger red flag than any of the the scamming stuff? It's like, how does she then go and be like, oh whoops, I had the wrong bet. Like that would draw me more embarrassment to ever post that than anything. Like I'd be like, how would anyone, how would I expect anyone to follow my bets, when I'm like oh guys, I, you're not going to believe this. I miss hit the button, I misclicked. I actually didn't have milwaukee bucks plus eight and a half. I had the other team minus eight and a half and they and it cashed. Can you believe it? No, no chance, uh see ya, these girls toast. 

01:16:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you know anything about the sports book bet slips? Because, honestly, like every barstool employee post, barstool bet slips so on. 

01:16:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That I think most like let's be realistic. Like she didn't have a bet. Well, no, okay. Again I hear you like, oh, I didn't couldn't post it because I work for a book. 

01:16:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like you don't have a bet well, here's the thing I'm saying, though, like I've seen literally dozens of people who work for books open her thing as well pull like, um, I'm trying to think of recent, like live moods recently posted a fan duel bet slip and she's getting paid in some way by fan duel. 

01:17:10
I don't know if she works directly for them or not, but, um, she has fan duel in her twitter profile. So, like, I don't know, like, is it something specific to a super book? Um, like terms of you know their employee terms, or whatever. I have no idea, I'm just speculating here. I would agree that I think it's. If I, if I had to set odds on there being a bet slip for this, it's got to be a hard minus 2000, no, no value in minus 2000s. 

01:17:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I just pulled up her profile. She does content for Superbook USA, which was actually historically a more prestigious brand. It's kind of just went off the rails right now with their marketing and kind of are playing into the whole like tiktok influencer stuff, maybe getting some traction, but I think it's probably damaging their brand as like a a good, reputable sports book. But on top of that, uh, what I will say is superbook is available in arizona. Taylor mathis twitter bio claims she's from arizona, so it's possible she did bet it at Superbook and then was unable to post it. So let's, I don't even want to accuse now and now I feel like that is possible. 

01:18:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Minus 2,000 goes down to minus 200. Line moved very quickly. Knowing that information had to move the line I want to message this guy, though I got to look for his other. If he does videos like, just like this like, like this, like this is his, his shtick on tiktok, then I'll, we'll have this guy on the pod just like gambling exposes, like if he does that, I gotta actually pull up his profile. And I am not. I'll be honest. You know me like. I'm naturally drawn to the like, the clash of the heads, yeah like you know, but it's, it's. 

01:18:48
He makes like again the video itself, nothing derogatory he's only. He's only spitting facts, as they, as the kids, would say. I don't know if you know, if kids say that I honestly have no idea, but he's spitting facts and well done and uh, I think it's important. 

01:19:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh now, how do they say no cap, no cap I don't even know. 

01:19:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know. You don't know what that is. I'm 35 years old. I don't. The only the only like experiences I have on a daily, on a regular basis with people that are kids are in this office. Literally, it is what, it is, okay. Can someone explain it to me so I'm not out of the loop? 

01:19:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, cap just means like no bull, no no cap all right or you could say like you're capping, it means like you're talking shit I'm learning new things every day. 

01:19:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just want to learn. I just want to learn so I can fit in in my place of work detective chuck, episode 53 of circles off. We welcome detective chuck I think it's oh, oh, that would be. Yeah, that's. I was like I forgot about what the episodes were did we have another clip? 

01:19:58 - Social Clip 1 (Caller)
do we have another one more? 

01:19:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
uh, oh yeah, this one is uh joey, my favorite tweet joey knish 22 um. Joey knish veteran. 

01:20:07
Uh circles off podcast veteran friend of the show friend of the show, not a friend of uh fellow, his fellow neighbors in detroit um, because he doesn't pick up after his dog but he tweets. This has to be the most absurd gambling moment in the history of the bill simmons podcast. As joe house goes one and six in nba regular season win totals he gave out on the pod preseason then says I actually think I bet heavy on the opposite of those Nice fucking pod to sponsor FanDuel Sportsbook. 

01:20:41 - Social Clip 1 (Caller)
We're going to play the audio just so everyone can hear it. House is one in five with Orlando looming. So, house, you're going to either be one in six or two in five, not a strong performance by you. 

01:20:53 - Social Clip 2 (Caller)
The critics are saying I think I bet the opposite of what we did. I think we did that show and then talked through some stuff and I'm like and I bet heavy on. 

01:21:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So on the other, side okay, this is literally absurd like I can't. How does he say that I hear, show I I? 

01:21:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I totally agree with you. Like, even if you did this, let's say, for some reason, I don't know what you, what the, the reasons would be for you to go on a podcast, give out a bunch of picks and then go somewhere else and bet the opposites? 

01:21:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, not just bet the opposite. 

01:21:28
Heavy, heavy, use the adjective he bet heavy on the opposite of whatever I gave up. So here's two scenarios of what happened. Number one is he went one and six, felt bad, didn't want to look like a loser, like didn't want to look like he lost his picks and then just lied about it. That's scenario one. Probably not likely. Scenario two I actually believe he's telling the truth. This is even funnier. I hope he's telling the truth because if he's telling the truth, then what happened is he came into the show. 

01:21:54
They asked him you know, bill Simmons asked him off the rip. He's like we're going to need to give out some NBA win season totals like NBA season win totals. Get your top seven. He's like okay, I'll get my top seven. Came in completely unprepared, did not know who he wanted to bet, gave out seven picks. 

01:22:09
They then, at the end of the show, after they recorded the seven, bill Simmons is like why do you like this pick? And he's like you know what? I don't fucking know why I like this pick. This isn't even a good pick. Went back and was like you know what? Actually, now that I look at this, I know I gave out the under, but I should probably bet the over. And then proceeds to say I like the over a lot, I'm going to bet, bet heavy on these, and then switch his mind. That's what I hope is true, because that's even funnier if that, if that actually happened. And then they recap it and he's like no, no, no, I'm up big on season win totals and it's actually the ones I gave out on the show. But jokes on you. 

01:22:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I bet the opposites if you're gonna bet the opposites, you should probably let your massive audience because this is a really big podcast know that that's your intent. Like, honestly, just play it off as a joke and be like I'm so bad at picking NBA, this is who I like, but I'm personally gonna actually bet the opposite side. 

01:23:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He didn't know he was betting the opposite until after he released the show. It has to be that. 

01:23:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If that's the case, though, then just don't ever talk about it, ever, and just don't ever talk about it ever Never Like. 

01:23:13 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why would you go? 

01:23:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You have to eat the one in six. This is so absurd and people are like oh, why are you so upset about this? I will tell you why I'm upset about this. Because people would have listened to that. People think like this doesn't happen. It happens. 

01:23:27
People will listen to those NBA regular season win totals. He gave out that Joe House gave out. Listen to it on a podcast and they will bet it heavy. They will say I'm tailing what Joe House is betting here. Make some good points. I don't know if he made good points or not. This happens all the time. 

01:23:49
People don't know better. 

01:23:51
There are too many people who have no freaking clue, so it's so irresponsible to come out after the fact and be like I bet the opposite. Imagine imagine you bet these regular season win totals and then you're like off, you know you, even if you put a hundred bucks down on every one of them, you're down 550 at the end of the year because of the vig. And now you listen to this podcast and this guy's like oh, I bet heavy on the opposite, I would never listen again. Not only would I never listen again, I would send this guy like a dog turd in the mail. There is no chance. Like it is absurd. And on top of that fan duel to sponsor this I get it. There's so much reach here, I completely get it, but my god, what a horrible look for a sports book to sponsor something like that yeah, like imagine losing 550 bucks and then hearing that how pissed you would just be in general if I was a 100 better and I lost 550 bucks, which was tied up over the entire year where probably I suffered. 

01:24:55
Looking at my account like every day, being like, oh my God, this losing like that's a part of it on top of it. People don't realize that you play futures. You see those losers in your account the entire season. You know they're going to lose. They already lost. It's even more infuriating on top of it. And then this guy is taking a victory lap at your expense. 

01:25:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Basically, oh, lap at your expense. Basically, oh my god, I would have, I would literally have a heart attack uncle k, joey knish nice tweet. 

01:25:21
He was one of the most requested guests after we asked for a couple guest requests, so, uh, we might have to wait a bit. We've already had him on, but we can get on uncle k once again when some, when some of the pot needs to be stirred, we'll get him on again, for sure he has a lot of tweets that actually trigger me, though, as well, which we could get in. 

01:25:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The problem is, they're not really anything we can learn from. You just want to bash him. Yeah, it's not really the goal, but probably once a week I see something from his account where I'm like Rob, maybe we should just go through, pick them and then, on the episode, just confront him about each. 

01:25:57
Yeah, he's got a lot of terrible takes. Like listen, you know he's not a good person. I don't even know if he's a good, better he's entertaining, but he's got a lot of shitty takes. Like we could almost do an entire episode on his bad takes. 

01:26:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sure, we can have him on, but I don't know if I don't know if he'll come on, If you're just going to bash him he would do it Probably. 

01:26:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're going to have to get him some more ice coffees or whatever. He drinks, like three every time. He's well, he's only been on with. He's been on with us twice. He's been on with this. Today. I'll bring it up on air, because I could bring it up off air as well, but you said, you said off the rip like a lot today. We almost need like a counter every time it happens, and me every time, I say wholeheartedly, I say wholehearted, that's like the only way I wholeheartedly agree with my whole heart I try, I've tried so hard to limit it, but sometimes I listen back to episodes. 

01:26:55
I'm like, oh my God, like did I really say that again within like a five minute span? 

01:27:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It is what it is. Do you think I could go an entire episode. 

01:27:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe I didn't, yeah, you probably didn't even use it. 

01:27:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This episode. 

01:27:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used it now at the end. 

01:27:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Friends, thank you very much for tuning in. This has been episode 52 of the Circles Off podcast. We will be back next week with some more. Thank you very much for tuning in.