00:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off episode number 53. I'm rob azzola, joined by johnny from betstamp. How are you, rob? I'm doing okay. It's been a pretty good week. Baseball's back now, a lot more stuff to bet on nfl draft coming up, so you know, killing some time waiting for nhl playoffs, got my 350 dollar leaf tickets yesterday as did I. 

00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We are going sizzler. Let's get a leafs game seven first round. Um anyways, very special guest for today. I know rob usually brings him in. He calls every guest special, but this one we really mean it. We've got hitman. And give him a better intro than that? 

00:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
rob, I'm not the intro guy sure you can follow him on twitter at hitman428. He's a professional sports. Better, he's a handicapper at pregamecom. You can find his content with bet prep us. And he also stole his nickname from a canadian legend as well brett the hitman heart, who I grew up watching. But, hitman, good to see you. I mean, I ran into you a few weeks ago in Vegas, so it hasn't been too long a time. How are things? 

01:11 - Hitman (Guest)
They're pretty good. You know it's kind of like my offseason right now, but even the offseason feels busy a lot of the time. But, as you know, I'm mostly doing NFL during from August to February, so I'm getting a little bit more golfing and we had a good time in Vegas and all that. But I'm excited to do this. You guys definitely probably have the best guests out of any podcasts out there, so I'm honored to be one of them. 

01:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, we appreciate you coming in and I think that's my first and last intro I'm going to. I'm going to make on the show. I blanked, I choked up there I'm like was I gonna intro him? And then rob's got it all. So that's the last time I steal that. But I'm glad we got that rectified. We're excited to have you today. Thank you very much for the compliment. Um, I guess if we want to, just you know let's. Let's start it off like you know. If you want to, just, we've had you on before. Uh, for everyone who's a loyal listener, we've had hitman on the super Bowl props episode. But happy to give you now your own intro. The floor is yours. Let's hear a little bit about yourself, what you do in the betting space and how you came to be. 

02:10 - Hitman (Guest)
All right. So I was a school teacher and I was a phys ed teacher and I was coaching sports and all that. And while I was doing that I was posting plays on forums and eventually I was posting them on Twitter and you know, I just kind of did it at first as a little challenge. I always knew a lot about sports and in particular the NFL, and I was like you know what, well, let me get involved in betting. I got one or two betting accounts to start and I was saying, hey, let me see what I could do with my knowledge At the time. And in my first year or two I did very well on sides and totals. That's all I was betting. But in retrospect, looking back on it, I got pretty lucky because I was more of just a knowledgeable NFL guy than I was even a semi-pro better at the time. But I was able to do well and get a little bit of following and I would post long analysis as every single time on all my plays and I just felt like a lot of people appreciated that and they were able to recognize that I knew what I was talking about and as the years kind of went on, I gained more and more knowledge, meeting and reaching out to other pro bettors, semi pro bettors, just sharp guys in general. It helped me so much because I just kept learning and I had the will to keep learning and just I never felt like my work was done, just after having a good first year, good two years posting and all that. 

03:44
And eventually I got recognized where I got an offer to start giving out picks and everything. And then that was more of how I got into the handicapping side. And then the betting side was. I was always making like decent, like okay, spare change money, but when legalization started in New Jersey it really took off for me at that point and I was just able to have so many different outs and with getting all those outs and everything, it motivated and seeing the money that I was making, it motivated me to get even more outs where I got a lot more into the PPH game and the offshore world and all that. 

04:27
And you know, eventually, like your first year of teaching, you're like, oh, wow, I made like half my salary betting. This is awesome. And then, like the second year, you're like, oh, wow, I almost made my full year salary and everything. And then eventually you get to the point like what the hell am I doing? Still teaching, you know. So finally I got to that point and I'll tell you what it was a risk at the time where you know parents, in-laws they're not a fan of me going full-time betting, and how could you leave a job where you're going to get a pension and all that stuff. But I told him I wanted to do it. My fiance was as supportive as you could be and knock on wood, but as of now it was the best decision I ever made in my life. 

05:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that's a great story, and I mean I think just in general, or generally speaking, the vast majority of successful sports bettors probably have a risk tolerance that's a lot higher than other people. Now, that's not always the case, obviously. You know some people who are they're grinding out small edges and whatever, but I've I experienced that firsthand as well in my personal life where it's like oh, how could you leave a job where you're making this salary and you get benefits and stock options, and so on and so forth. So I mean, how did you get to the point though? I mean, obviously you're making more money than your, your teacher salary but like, how did you arrive at the? You know the state of? I think that this is sustainable over time. 

05:55 - Hitman (Guest)
Well, when I got the offer to start selling picks and everything and we'll talk about this a little later when we bring up the whole pick selling topic, but that was kind of that on top of the money that I was making from betting made me feel a lot more comfortable. And it especially made my significant others more comfortable because I was able to say to them hey, listen, I have a guaranteed income and I'm obviously making this supplemental income betting. So I broke down the numbers hey, I'm going to be making, hopefully, this much more than teaching everything. And guess what, if it does go sour and I'm not making money betting, I still have a college degree, it doesn't go away, I still can go back into my past career. So it was one of those things that I kind of put a timeline on it no-transcript at that point anyway. But yeah, that's what kind of it made me take the jump and made me think that, hey, this might be sustainable. It might not be, but you got to take the chance in life. 

07:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can only imagine like just having the kids run a few more laps so you can get a few more bets in. It's like more laps. But, sir, we've already done a hundred More laps, more laps. 

07:34 - Hitman (Guest)
But I was the king of like teaching health class. I was the king of putting a video on and write an article about the video while I bet for 45 minutes. 

07:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So probably just the king of the scrimmage during regular, regular gym class. Just just straight scrimmage, divide up the teams and just play for the rest, and then no, no drills exactly. 

07:54 - Hitman (Guest)
You know what the kids like when I was in school. I loved that. I just wanted to play, you know so it was a win-win I guess people exactly. 

08:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But yeah, no, I I really appreciate, uh, you sharing that story. 

08:05
It's it's something that not a lot of people ever get the chance to do and, uh, congratulations to you for like taking that jump. We've had multiple people on the podcast who had I wouldn't call it similar stories, but they were all faced with the decision of when do I just take the leap, quit my job, my day job, and then transition to the secondary job? And when you're saying, like working in nine to five, you know, I think we could all uh relate. You know, doing something that you actually like, where you see real growth and you can actually do cool things on a day-to-day basis, whether that be your nine to five or something else, it's just super important to find that um. So it leads us into today, basically, where you now are betting um in more of a full-time capacity or if you'd consider yourself full-time. So we wanted to take a look at that. Would you be able to talk a little bit about your day-to-day, what you're doing now, when you wake up in the morning instead of traveling to school and teaching the kids? London scrimmage? 

08:56 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, well, there's two different versions. There's football season me and there's non-football season me. So for football season and there's non-football season maybe. So for football season, I mean just maybe to start on Sundays, it's absolutely hectic, you know. You're working a 14-, 15-hour day in front of computer screens and televisions before the games start at 1. A lot of props are opening up for maybe, like the smaller-time players, so like second-string running, second string tight ends, all that. So you're doing that, you're texting and calling people non-stop, like the phone just does not stop ringing, whether it's people hey, can you help me get down? Hey, I think this is a good play, just sharing information with people. 

09:40
The games start, I I do a decent amount of live betting, but only in the NFL, and I was fortunate to meet a guy that's really sharp with live betting and he's been able to teach me some of the ropes with that, and then I've had some added input and everything. So I'm doing that. And then you know, once the game's done Sunday night and I'm done live betting, as you guys know running figures Sunday night, monday morning, seeing the accounts, contacting people hey, we were plus this, minus this, and then you have the openers coming out Sunday night, monday night football it's just absolutely hectic. You really don't have time to do anything. Probably the one day that I have during football where I can relax a little is Saturday, and it's because I made the decision that I'll do some college football stuff with some partners that give me plays and everything. I'll do that before noon. But once noon comes I'm basically done for the day because it's pretty much my only time where the NFL is a little bit relaxed. There's no major injuries breaking at that time and I can just have a social life. 

10:49
So that's during football and during the off season. You know I only originate the NFL, so I'm not. I do NBA props but it's not as much handicapping and originating as it is reacting to news and not following some sharp guys putting some bets in on, on on my accounts after either following them or playing injury news and then it's just more of. You know I'm more social. Go on some vacations. I got into golf two years ago. It was the best decision I ever made, just for my mental health, and that was the worst decision for my mental health, Johnny's Johnny on the course is yelling at himself the entire time. 

11:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
but no, it's great, it is a great hobby to have. It's just like a relaxing experience. If, if you can. 

11:38 - Hitman (Guest)
I'm probably the most. I'm one of the most angry golfers out there, like I. I've I've walked off courses on like the 15th hole before storming off. So I say it's relaxing for my mental health, but it depends on the day. 

11:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Couple putter throws here and there, that's for sure. 

11:55 - Hitman (Guest)
Oh yeah, I've broken clubs. I'm I'm sick when I'm golfing and it doesn't help matters that I'm not as good, not nearly as good as I should be. 

12:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, you're two years in. I'm sure you'll get. I'm sure you'll get significantly better as it goes on, especially if you're playing Exactly. 

12:09 - Hitman (Guest)
But yeah, the offseason now is just I'm fortunate to work with some people that they give me some good stuff and other sports and everything and it's kind of a lot more relaxing for sure. 

12:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What happens when NFL and NBA season over seasons overlap? Do you find yourself like not really getting into NBA stuff until after the NFL season is over? Are you able to handle both at once? 

12:35 - Hitman (Guest)
I mean it's tough but I'm obviously paying a lot less attention to the NBA. But, as you know, injury news in the NBA is absolutely king and if you can just monitor the injury news and have an idea and anybody can obviously monitor the injury news but you also need to have an idea of how the injury news affects things Like if a second string point guard is ruled out, whose assists is going to have value in that case and everything. So I'm doing it, but just to a far less extent than I am with the NFL. 

13:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's interesting that you use that example of a second string point guard coming out and then looking at the assists. So is it fair to say now, like when you first started you said you were betting major markets. You felt like you got a little bit lucky in doing so. Looking back on it, have you gravitated now more towards the prop markets than you have to major markets? You know? 

13:34 - Hitman (Guest)
the guys that are betting huge, huge, huge money and really really influencing the market and NFL sides and totals, really really influencing the market and NFL sides and totals. It's such a grind that I felt like my it's just. It's a grind where you could only win a few units in a year and win 54, 55%. But if you're specializing in the prop market, you know it's not unheard of to win 60, low, 60 percentage and I know that obviously the argument against that is oh well, you're not going to get much down and you're going to get thrown out of everywhere. If you're just betting these props, well, you know, when you have enough accounts you could get a good amount down in the prop market. 

14:21
Now if you're just working by yourself and you just are playing with DraftKings and FanDuel and you don't have friends that are going to help get you down or make accounts for you, then yeah, I mean you're probably going to get shut down pretty quick. But it's the same with anything. I feel like if you're the best NFL better in the world on sides and totals and you go on DraftKings or FanDuel and you're just on sides and totals and you go on draft kings or fan duel and you're just betting sides and totals. Well, they're going to look at your closing line value and see that you took four and a half on a game that late, that closed three, and that you're winning better and you're going to get shut down and limited on that. So for me I just have a way higher hit rate on the props and I'm able to get down an amount of money typically that is able to suffice my appetite. 

15:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's an interesting perspective because mine is a complete opposite, and that's not to dismiss yours. Obviously, everybody feels the way that they do. But, like when you talk about the major markets being a grind for me personally and you bet a lot more props than I do, johnny, as well, but I get so overwhelmed by going through the amount of different prop options for a game that I'm like I just can't do this, like this is, and I get like burnout essentially within half an hour of sitting out and doing that. Whereas the major markets, yes, I agree with you, you might end up like up five units at the end of the year, but they're fairly significantly sized bets as well. So from a monetary value it works out. 

15:49
I was just very interested in your perspective because I personally have noticed the shift from not only you, johnny, recreational bettors but even a lot of pro bettors towards the prop markets as well, where they're just like ah, it's so much easier, I don't have to worry about focusing on these big bets and so on and so forth. There's way more edges to pick off, but for me it's just the quantity of props that are out there. Obviously, I guess that could work in your advantage, but for me personally, I've always just found it just like so overwhelming to look at a board where you have hundreds of props. 

16:26 - Hitman (Guest)
You know what the thing about the grind, and we both grind our ass off and everything. 

16:28
But just for me personally, it's tough to grind all year. 

16:31
Like I've had an nfl season with sides and totals that I lost money, yeah, and when I was looking at that in week 13, week 14, when I wasn't having the best seasons I was was saying like oh my God, I'm grinding like crazy on this and I'm not getting a return. 

16:48
Like you almost start to doubt yourself and say why the hell am I doing all this work and everything? But if you really have a good edge on the prop market and you can get a lot of accounts and that's a lot of work too, just getting the accounts and getting the places to play into but if you could do that, it's you don't have nearly as much variance. Like there's very few losing months, to be honest, that you're going to have and obviously the issue is just getting down. But if, if you're able to do that, it just makes all the work, it feels more meaningful and saying you know what? Well, I know I'm probably going to make X amount this year because I know I'm going to win at these props, whereas a major side or total market, you know, I don't know. I think I'm going to win, but I'm not absolutely positive that I'm going to win. 

17:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah you make some good points, I'll give you guys the nuts right here. This is the reality of it. It's all a grind. Anyone listening right now don't think that something's not a grind and another thing's a grind. It's just a different grind. You know you want to bet sides and totals. It's going to be a lot more stressful. You're going to get a lot more money down and the swings are going to be wild. You will wake up one day and be like what am I doing? This is ridiculous. I put in so much work and I'm down this much and that could last over a full season. 

18:19
Reality is, with sides especially sides full game sides, nba, nfl, a good ROI a great ROI is 3%. A good ROI is 1%. 1, 2%. So when you're looking at the sheer variance, it's not even that props are less variable than the games. It's that your expected win rate is so much lower, right? So if you grind out a full season of nfl, you make one percent. You actually did okay, made some money. You make three percent. You did great. You make five percent. It's a career year. 

18:38
If you're betting props, you're probably your lowest edge. Case is going to be like 5%. So it's not that there's more or less variance in the actual outcomes of the events. It's more just that, a you're betting more bets, like unique bets, so highly higher likelihood that you don't have a losing month. And B your win rates can be higher. 

18:57
So with props, there's people I know who who earned 15 to 20%. I used to earn 20% when I didn't. You know what I mean. If you don't have, if you don't have, if you don't have a lot of accounts and you're only hitting the best stuff, you could easily earn 25 on props. It's not going to be an insanely difficult thing to do. But obviously as you scale down, you know when you get to a level where hitman is at stuff like that, you know you're not going to earn 20 because you're going to be playing more stuff, more accounts and things like that. But ultimately just the win rates are so much lower in sides and totals and the amounts of money you're betting is so much higher that it is more stressful in that sense. 

19:29
But at the same time when you're like, oh, why wouldn't I just do props, you're getting kicked out of every book. You have to constantly have more accounts. You're gonna have to go through more things. You have to bet at key times of the day With props. There's way more key times Like this book opens this time this book opens this time. This book raises limits. This time this book does this. There's all different types of things you have to monitor throughout the entire day. So the reality is for anyone listening, we'll ask if Hitman agrees after, but it's really just a grind for it all. So don't ever think that, oh yeah, this is easy. This is not easy. You put in the work, you will make the money. But if it was easy to make money, whole world would be rich, and that's obviously not the case. Well said. 

20:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to ask you, hitman, about futures, because I follow you on Twitter. I've followed you for a long time. You regularly post future tickets, sometimes from credit accounts which me and Johnny have talked about before. We're not huge fans of tying up credit with futures. What's your viewpoint on that? Obviously, you bet them. Is that something that you don't care about? Just because you have so much credit available to you? You're just finding great prices and you don't mind tying up the credit for a larger amount of time. Just walk me through your viewpoint on futures. You don't mind tying up the credit for a larger amount of time. 

20:44 - Hitman (Guest)
Just walk me through your viewpoint on futures. Well, if you're betting it on a credit account, or known as a PPH account, I agree with you like 95% of the time and it's one of those things that you just have to know your bookmaker Like. For example, I get a lot of low, lower limit paperhead accounts and a lot of times it's like college bookies trying to get through and everything, and I know with them well, listen, first of all, I'm probably going to get kicked off after I win a few thousand dollars. I'm getting low credit. It's just not worth it, and that's most of the accounts out there and it's not worth it. But every now and then you'll get one of those accounts that you know you could keep for a while and your partner or whatever will tell you hey, listen, you're probably not going to, you're not going to get kicked off this account for whatever reason and they're few and far between, but it can happen. And if you get an account like that, then sure, go ahead and bet. As long as you have the credit, go ahead and bet on it. But no, I agree with you for the most part that I don't very often bet futures on a paperhead because of multitude of reasons, the stiff rate that the account's not going to last, the credit all that Now with the legal sites I'll bet a lot of futures on. And it really comes down to this If you if it's it's it's an individual question If you have the bankroll and you have the capital that you can invest in those futures for the six, seven months, then go ahead and do it. 

22:20
If it's going to affect your betting, if, if I'm going to put, if you're going to place a NFL future in June and September comes around and you're like, oh well, I can't bet as much as I would like to on week one NFL props because I have this money tied up, then you absolutely shouldn't be betting futures. But if you are able to withstand that, then for me it's a big edge. And one of the reasons is that pros are typically not paying that much attention to the market. And if there's less attention on a market, there's more advantages, because you're obviously in a major market. You're playing against everybody in the world, every pro in the world. But in a market like that where maybe 90% of pros aren't going to play in it, then you're kind of just playing against a bookmaker. And if you're playing against a bookmaker you're, you know like, you're going to probably have an edge over him. So that's one of the reasons. 

23:18
Number two is that books tend to not pay full attention to and the lines tend to stay up at a lot of shops because of that. For example, probably the biggest future hit that I'm ever going to have is Tyler Hero for the sixth man of the year and he opened up like 20 to 1 at every single shot for the most part, and the word kind of got out that he was a great bet and it was after his preseason. He was like top three in scoring efficiency, something crazy. And the word kind of got out, hey, harrow, very well might take a third-year lead. And those lines went down to maybe as low as like 5-1, 6-1. 

24:01
But if you shop around, there's a lot of slow-moving books on stuff like that and you're able to find a lot of 16 ones, 15 to ones, 12 to ones, all those prices. So I just think it's a big edge and I'm fortunate that I'm able to tie up my bankroll. I have the bankroll that I can tie the money up in it, but for most people, with the examples I gave, it's probably a negative EV decision, but it's one of those decisions that you just got to know yourself and make that decision for yourself. 

24:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that was well thought out and I would agree with pretty much everything you said there. So now you're talking about your distribution from how you're basically approaching futures differently depending on the type of account that you have. What is your distribution of betting looking like now? Because obviously you said you were able to make the leap that you did because of regulation in New Jersey. Now I imagine over time you start to get limited at a number of those books. There are ways, obviously, to still get accounts at those books and so on and so forth, but how much of your actual volume do you think is still going through the regulated market? 

25:05 - Hitman (Guest)
It's tough to give an actual percentage, but I'm just going to go with maybe the most basic answer I could give probably 50-50 around. I have certain partners that they're able to get me paper head accounts, and then some others. They're just kind of not in that neck of the woods and they just say, hey, well, I could. You know, I made a draft kings is there, can you give me some good plays and see if I could turn x into z money, wise, right. So it really it really is a good mix. 

25:41
And I think you got to have a good mix because obviously, like for the nfl for example, draft kings and Caesars are typically the two books that are putting out props the openers on Thursdays if there's no major injuries, and the paper heads they're not putting up props until Sunday morning. So you know, if you're just going to play a paper heads and you're betting props, well on Thursday, Friday and Saturday you're going to get beat to a lot of the lines and a lot of the value is going to be gone. And then you know, maybe for like for NBA for example, I find way more value with the paper heads than I do with the domestic bucks. So I think that for me it's probably close to 50-50. And I think that the best answer for anyone is just get as many as you possibly can. 

26:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed. I'm curious. So you have 50-50 action, roughly, let's say. What side of it is causing you more headaches? So you know, like I said, I follow you a long time. You're not one of the you're. You're one of many that will post messages from the agent when you log into your account that says you know we don't want sharp action, so on and so forth. You'll also be a one to post when you get limited at a regulated book as well, especially if it's like if you feel it happened very quickly, or so on and so forth. So, from your perspective, where are you getting more headaches right now in terms of getting down? 

27:11 - Hitman (Guest)
Probably the domestic books, because with those you're dealing with a few issues. You're obviously dealing with the limits and how quick you're getting limited. You're dealing with the fact that you have to put money into these accounts and deal with people, whereas, like if a partner says, hey, I got a credit book and it has $5,000 credit, whatever, well, I don't have to put up my 2,500. So that's easy for me. And then with the domestic books, it's also the lines. Especially in the prop market. They typically move a lot quicker. In the domestic market, where the paperhead a lot of times I'll be, I don't use a bot or anything, so I'm able to-. 

27:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're hand betting everything. 

28:01 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, and, trust me, I feel like I'm going to have carpal tunnel syndrome at like 40 years old, so it's definitely a pain. But yeah, I'm hand betting everything, but I can hit multiple accounts typically, especially in the prop market, whereas if you're betting with the domestic books, the lines just tend to move a lot quicker. So probably or not probably definitely the domestic books give me the most issues. I mean, I guess the good part is that you always know you're going to get paid and everything where with the paper people. That it's not even about the money. Like I've had a guy try to stiff me over like a few hundred dollars and I'm still trying to look up, well, where does this guy work, where can I contact his parents or something crazy. Because it just infuriates me so much that you, you are going to do that to somebody that I just can't let it go. 

29:05
And probably the best story I had with a stiff is I had one guy that stiffed me. 

29:10
It wasn't even a crazy amount of money, like something, maybe like a little over a thousand, and I ended up looking him up and everything and I'm like, well, what do you, what do you know here? This guy actually plays a division two sport for a college and he's a senior right now at that college said hmm, well, I wonder what his athletic director would think if I sent an email saying he was booking me on his sport. So you know, I write out a whole draft and everything to this guy and the coach and everything, because all the emails are publicly available. And I sent them a message to another app and I said if I don't get paid this, then it's getting sent Quickest payout I ever got in my entire life dealing with a sniff. It was literally might've been under 45 seconds and an apology and all that. So I mean those are the headaches you get in that world, but I'd say overall that the domestic bucks probably give me more headaches. 

30:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I have pretty much almost the exact same. It's very similar type of story. I do appreciate the ruthlessness because it's a matter of principle. Sometimes right, it's not even the money, and years ago I made some Twitter bets which I would never recommend anyone do Like. This is obviously the dumbest thing ever. But at the end of the season I'm going to collect, and most of the people I'm DMing are you know. They're fine to pay up, no matter what, and one guy had preemptively blocked me. I'm like, oh, here we go, and his was the largest amount. What was the bet? Roughly? The Buffalo Sabres had an amazing start to the season. We're first in the division, probably a quarter of the way through the year, and I bet that they would not make the playoffs. 

30:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, and I don't recall them making the playoffs. They did not. 

30:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They went into like a huge tailspin and people were giving me like two to one, three to one, whatever, but so I got blocked by someone. Quickly looked them up ncaa lacrosse coach. I'm like I wonder how the ncaa is going to feel about you betting on sports. I basically gave him a link to a charity. I said I don't even care about the money, it's not about the money, but it's about you blocking me and never having intent to pay me. Pay it to the charity, I won't say a word. He did pay it to the charity and, just like you said, within 30 minutes I got a response. Right, you know, couldn't get a response, nothing like that as soon as I mentioned ncaa. Oh, here you go, no problem. 

31:26 - Hitman (Guest)
So, um, funny those are the best. When it works out like that, of course I've had. I've had other times where it works out where the guy messages me back and says, hey, tough guy, go f yourself, I'm gonna find out where you live, and all that stuff and those tend to not go as smoothly, but the ones that work out are always great stories for us they're gonna call up your old school would be like. 

31:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I wonder how the kids are gonna feel about a gym coach no, just just kidding, just kidding. 

31:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, we're gonna get into. We're going to get into some nfl draft stuff where people are listening, because hitman is actually one of the best um in terms of all football betting. I remember Steve Fezzik actually famously said that if anyone bought your package and lost over the course of the NFL season, he would take them out to a steak dinner. I don't know how many subscribers you had, but I found that pretty funny. But we should talk about that a little bit. I know your motivation for getting into the pick selling business in the first place. I obviously sold picks myself at one point or another. I have no ill will towards pick sellers, but there are people out there that would say, well, you're winning better, what's in it for you to sell plays? So why still do it, hitman? 

32:39 - Hitman (Guest)
So I mean, listen, I've had people criticize me for company I'm working for, for selling picks in general. But I'll say this as I said earlier years ago, when I was a teacher and it was pretty scary to finally take that leap and leave a regular job, they were the people that they reached out to me and they said hey, we think you're really good from your posting your picks and everything. They offered me a guaranteed income and they believed in me in the very beginning, when I was an absolute nobody and I wasn't even a pro better. So you know, I I've been. Of course you have people that will call you out on it sometimes and say, oh well, you can't actually be a pro better, you're selling picks for a website and everything. 

33:20
But you know, all I ask is that people judge me individually. And obviously you were able to do that, rob, because, as we know, 98% of pick sellers are not winners and they probably have ill intents. There's no running away from that. But if somebody is able to find, hey, the one or 2% that I'm able to judge them on a case-by-case basis and know that, hey, this guy is actually pretty sharp, then you could make some money following them and you could judge them in not the same light as you judge other pick sellers. So that's what I really say to other people. It also gives me motivation, especially with the sides and the totals, because winning is important to me, and it gives me having the recognition and admiration for my work in the public eye. It a lot, a lot of pro bettors you're, so you don't get the recognition from your peers typically other than betting partners that you're actually doing a good job, and obviously it sucks when when you're losing and it's the worst feeling in the world, but when you're winning, it's a great feeling. So so I like that aspect of it. And then the third thing that I touch on is that my priority and most of my income is from betting, but it's nice to have that extra income from not only selling but creating content. 

34:41
And you don't know where life's going to take. You you know, especially if you're betting in prop markets, and it's getting harder and harder every single year. And you know I'm not arrogant enough to dismiss the fact that, hey, you know what? In 10 years my edge might not be what it is right now. It might be minuscule, minuscule and or at least as far not that my edge will be completely drained, but getting down on it, dealing with betting partners, you're fried at every single account. All your partners are fried at every single account, so it could be tough later in life to get down and then, plus, you end up having a wife Eventually. I'm engaged now. 

35:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Congrats. 

35:20 - Hitman (Guest)
Kids yeah, thank you very much, but you have kids eventually. You know you might not want to have the grind of getting down on debts and working on that behind a computer screen for all those hours. So I just think that it leaves options open. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy giving out content and trying to do it the right way. And anybody that criticizes it, you know I understand it because, as I said, 98% of people that are doing it are frauds and have ill intent. But I just ask everybody hey, try to judge the person individually and see their content and see if they're actually somebody worth following or not. 

35:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, if you didn't have any haters, then that would be an indication that you weren't doing too well, so I wouldn't worry too much about it. One quick question have you ever actually like um sweat, a bet that you gave out as a pick more than something, you might have had more money on yourself just for, like, it's not even a question, yeah, it's not even, it's not even close between the tail. 

36:17 - Hitman (Guest)
I, if, if I give something out that I know, hey, every one of my partners tailed this, every one of my clients tailed this and it's a big pick or something I am absolutely sweating that game way more because you know what, like after a while you you make such, you're up so much all time and you look at your spreadsheets and you're saying I'm gonna have a great year regardless of what happens in this one bet. You kind of don't sweat individual bets out that much, even a bigger bet, because you just know, hey, if I lose it's not the end of the world. But if there's people following you, there's always going to be that person that's over betting or they're betting with money that they can't really afford to lose. And if you give out a pick that maybe you say that you have higher confidence in, you're always going to get that one person that can't handle it, that curses you off and says that you don't know what the hell you're doing after it loses. You're always going to have a betting partner that is texting you when I tell them don't text me about the results. Just wait until the end of the week. But you're always going to have that guy that's freaking out about certain bet and everything and I'm just saying, listen, relax. 

37:30
Probably the most noteworthy one that I can remember is I sent out Antonio Brown props the week he played the Jets to everybody because of the contract incentive thing. You guys know Brady is known that he feeds his guy for those incentives. He fed Antonio Brown the year before, he fed Mike Evans to get the 1,000-yard season the year before and this year in the last game Gronk over six and a half catches was the cut of the year. 

37:57
And they even had Gronk mic'd up telling Tom make sure you get me my seventh catch. 

38:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was like I need one more. 

38:02 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, yeah. So it came out that Brown had all those incentives. I need one more, yeah, so it came out that Brown had all those incentives. It was not only, it was for receptions, it was for touchdowns, it was for yards. So I gave out all three, and I never do that, but I'm saying, hey, listen, it's just such a great bet in my opinion. And I remember the TV was on mute. One of my TVs was on mute which had the jets game on, and was on mute which had the jets game on, and I see this guy, shirtless, storming off the field and I just said to myself, like what could this app? Just praying to god, it's like something like with his jersey. You know he had to go to the locker room to get a change of clothes, something, and then I must have got the most dms and most text messages I ever got about a bet in my entire life. So that was probably-. 

38:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How short was he? How close was it to hitting? Because I know he had a couple of catches before he left. 

38:52 - Hitman (Guest)
The yards was like maybe like halfway, I think, at halftime the catches was behind pace and he needed one touchdown and he had no touchdowns at that point. So I mean it wasn't off to a great start. But if you remember that game, the jets, I think, had like a two touchdown lead and brady ended up having to throw the ball like 50 times and let a game-winning drive. 

39:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So yeah, I think godwin was out at that point. Yeah, brown was gonna get the usage. That's that's. Uh, that's a funny one to. 

39:21 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, those incentives are a nice that was but to answer your question, I absolutely do sweat the picks. I give out the people more. That was probably the most memorable that I've ever had. 

39:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I completely get it because I mean, obviously I do my Sunday morning content, which I start the video every week with, listen. This is the absolute worst time to be betting the NFL major markets, but I'm going to see if I can win over time. You sweat those ones so more than my actual bets because there's so many people that are betting those, regardless of if I say I wouldn't bet these right now, but these are what my edges still are. 

39:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, the problem is, he says like eagles, eagles minus three, and then you gotta also count on them covering minus four. 

40:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, or if I say something like I bet this earlier in the week but I would not bet it now Biggest mistake I could make because I'll get a DM at the end of the day regardless of whether that wins or loss. But I remember one specifically last year where I'm like I bet this earlier in the week, I wouldn't bet it now and then someone DMed me following it was a winner, and they were like thanks for the that pick today or whatever. Like I made a lot of money off it. I'm like I didn't recommend betting that. I said don't bet that today. 

40:35
And they're like I could tell you were confident in it, you had a lot of money on yourself. I just want it to be on the same side as you. So I feel the same thing. I think there's just like a it's like a human, like it's just the human emotion, Like we're not scumbags right. Like we don't want to see our friends lose. People that you know we're close with lose and I that that to me outweighs my own money for whatever reason. It's just the way I feel about it. 

40:56 - Hitman (Guest)
You know how it works. Also, when you have a lot of accounts, you're finding stuff that, hey, this, only one book or one type of skin has this prop or something and you're getting down. So you know, I'm having like a hundred props maybe in a week. You're only giving out six, seven, eight that are widely available. And it can happen easily that, hey, I had a great personal betting week but crap, I went two and six on my picks for clients and it sucks because I should be thrilled and drinking champagne at the end of the night. Oh, I had an amazing week betting but I'm like, no, you know what I didn't? I didn't do good. It's tough to win at every single one. Win for every partner, win for every client, win on just in general, on your betting, on your bets for that week, yeah, Every onset, every skin type. 

41:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not gonna happen right right, yeah, yeah all right, let's shift gears into, um, some nfl draft stuff. Uh, obviously you're known as someone in the community that bets a lot of draft props. Uh, you talk about them pretty openly. Um, you're someone that I've followed for years and actually communicated with off air for years. Um, in terms of some nfl draft stuff, um, I haven't paid a lot of attention to the NFL draft market this year. Personally, I can tell you the reason why, specifically on my end, but I just haven't found that there have been. Like the offering has been the same as past years in terms of the number of different skins, posting options and just the sheer number of betting options. What, for you, are the biggest differences that you've noticed between this year and past years in terms of betting options? What, for you, are the biggest differences that you've noticed between this year and past years in terms of the NFL draft offerings? 

42:32 - Hitman (Guest)
It's way harder this year, not to say that I'm not going to win at it. Honestly, the NFL draft is probably the most winnable event of the entire year for us, maybe other than the national anthem at the Super Bowl or something like that. 

42:53
Until Warren Sharp releases it. I won't get you started, rob, because you know I was pretty angry about that as well. But yeah, it's a lot harder this year and the reason is more eyes on it and more people giving out plays. Now I will agree with you that the offerings so far a week until the draft are a lot less than they have been in the past. I do think that they will increase as we get up to like a day or two before, but I do agree with that that the offerings are not as much. But what's really made it harder is you have so many more eyes on it and people pick sellers, touts that are giving stuff out, and some of these guys are winning touts and they are sharp people and I would follow them if I could get down on the stuff because they will win. 

43:39
But these people are giving out picks that, oh, hey, um, points bet. The only book in the country that will have a lineup points bet has this line. Here's an official play on it and everybody who bets with points bet knows that it's a manual approval process that they have on every single pick that you're putting in. So if a service gives out a points bet line. Probably one person's going to get the line. They're probably going to get limited. They're going to see that 10, 20 bets are coming in, reject it and they're going to move the line aggressively. So that's just one example of what's been happening. But so many people just you know one book, draftkings has a lineup on this give it out and the market's destroyed and obviously places will copy draft kings and points bet that most books. They're going to copy other books and if people would just wait for, hey, six books have this line now, then there'd be a lot more liquidity in the market. 

44:40
But with that happening right now and just everybody giving out picks as soon as they see it, it's been way harder and I've given out draft plays but I've made sure that I've posted to everybody who said listen, I'm not going to give out stuff unless it's available at maybe three, four bucks. Just give you a fighting chance to get this line. Because once you give out a DK, only, a FanDuel only, the line's going to move. And it's made it very tough on me personally because obviously I have to get down on these props before I give them out, and it's made it tough. It's made it tough, it's not beatable. It's going to be beatable Most pro bettors, all pro bettors. Probably you're going to win on it, but it's definitely tougher this year. 

45:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, everyone's trying to make a buck, that's for sure. I think the best year was, um so two years ago, which would have been the uh, joe Burrow, chase Young draft. Um that, because there was no other sports on at the time due to COVID, that was the draft that would. There'll never be bigger than that now, because every book had the full suite of offering up for like a month and you were just able to go ham on that. I think that brought people's eyes to the draft that were like shit, this thing's actually super profitable. And it was a once in a lifetime draft right For the NFL, because I mean I suppose that could happen again. I I'm never saying once in a lifetime right, because I mean I suppose that could happen again. 

46:06 - Hitman (Guest)
I'm never saying once in a lifetime. That's dumb. 

46:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But that was one where, like all the books had every market and there wasn't a lot of eyes on it, so everyone who kind of came in was able to earn and then from there, now what happened is the sports books are more cautious of the lines that they're hanging, hanging them later, copying stuff like that quicker to move. And what's happening now is more professionals, more people are like okay, that's actually something that I should keep an eye on, set their calendar date for the draft and now everything's getting picked off. So I hate it, but that was, man. What a year. So many good ones. 

46:38
I think even, um, you know, I tailed a couple picks off uh, you and kanish from twitter. That uh that ended up coming in big. That I was pretty, pretty fired up. But I recall having, uh, clyde, edwards, hilaire, first running back off the board, uh, at a hefty plus I think it was a plus 2500 that cashed yep and uh. There was a couple others that I ended up, maybe maybe from you guys, maybe from somebody else, but uh that I ended up cashing, that was super fun I actually still like recall all my prop bets from that draft because I hit so many big ones. 

47:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The biggest prop I ever hit came from that draft, which was Makai Becton, to be drafted by the jets, which I think I got at like 14 to one, ended up going down four to one, three to one. Yeah, really incredible draft. But, like to your point, hit man like you know. Incredible draft. But like to your point, hit man like you know, one two years ago. Like johnny said, there's nothing else going on, so I was heavily focused on the draft daily basis. I'm going skin by skin by skin. 

47:34
What are the off-market prices here? Ace didn't adjust this, lv action didn't adjust this. I'm gonna bang all these now like the, the difference, just the differences just aren't there. And when they are there, there are people alerting others that they are there. It's like, quickly, oh, go bang it at this book because it's off market by you know 50 cents. It's like, okay, that's great, that edge just dried up in like 15 minutes and I didn't have a chance to see it. So I mean, I I think from that perspective, I'm just finding that this year, especially when I was looking, the looking, the offerings were worse. But also it's so hard to find off-market prices nowadays. 

48:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you guys bet so that draft year? Just a quick question and we'll get into it. Did you bet Joe Burrow first overall? 

48:18 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, I laid like a ridiculous price right before it started. Yeah, because I mean-. 

48:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've been doing it every draft. I'm going to get burned one of these days. 

48:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm scared. Just if they trade, the pick is only your real. 

48:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But they're not trading the pick. Yeah, I know, and who's trading the pick that's not taking Trevor Lawrence as well or Joe. 

48:36 - Hitman (Guest)
Burrow as well. 

48:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It seems it's like such good value to lay that price, but only obviously right before, in the accounts that you know you have extra space in. But you know I was. I was wondering, like if you're willing to lay those huge, huge favorites and by huge favorites I don't mean minus a thousand, I mean like literally laying minus 15,000, like laying 15,000 to win a hundred bucks right before the draft, like is that something you guys would do? 

48:59 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, but yeah, but that's something. As you said, you're only going to do that right before the draft, Cause if you have an account with credit and everything, you're not going to burn all your credit to risk $15,000. 

49:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, of course, Of course, but right before all your extras. Yeah, right on. 

49:15 - Hitman (Guest)
I've done that and I mean you could get still. I mean I remember last year I liked from the beginning I was big on that. I thought Cincinnati was going to go receiver and take chase and that was one of my positions that I had pretty big, and I remember around like maybe the draft started at seven, like five, 30,. One of my buddies texted me and he was like hey, you watching this draft coverage or whatever he's like. I just noticed that Jamar chase is wearing orange and black shoes to the NFL draft. Well, Joe Burrow is his best friend, former teammate at lsu. The bangles need a receiver and everything. We know what joe burrow's pushing for him. Do you think at that point that jamar chase had a little bit of an inkling from his buddy? Hey, you know what, if you're, the bangles are probably going to take you or even just from the team. 

50:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like they, they tell the players in advance, in some cases right like, even if they're not telling a, they'll be. Like it's not a hundred percent if you're on the board we're gonna. 

50:09 - Hitman (Guest)
We're probably gonna take you yeah yeah, I think with the draft in general too, is typically you find your biggest edges later in the process, because that's when just a lot more info is getting leaked like oh hey, this player has injury, the medical came out on this guy, or j will tweet oh, this guy is, his stock is soaring the day before the draft, something like that. So I am hoping that as we get closer, that there's more liquidity in it, there's more books having the lines up where. So even if a, if a sharp group does release a draft, prop that, yeah, you know what, maybe the three or four books will move it, but there'll be slow moving books and you could still pick off a bet if there's value on it. So that's what I'm hoping for. But yeah, like I said this year, it's just tough. 

50:57
There was one bet this year that the line opened. I swear the line had to have been up for like three minutes and it was a great bet. It was Devante Wyatt, over 14 and a half on his draft position. It's like 29 and a half now and I sent out. It was a book I couldn't play at. I sent out a bunch of messages get whatever we can on davante wyatt over. Literally like a minute later, somebody that has market influence sends out davante wyatt at one book, davante wyatt over my official play. It's pulled off the board within 20 seconds yeah, no good. 

51:33
And it's just stuff like that that has absolutely infuriated me with this draft, but it's just something you got to live with yeah, sometimes the news comes out quickly. 

51:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We saw last year there was the whole mac jones uh trey lance fiasco where. What was your take on that? What side were you on there? 

51:49 - Hitman (Guest)
I lost a lot, a lot, a lot of money on mac jones so did I I joined you. 

51:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, so you had. 

51:56 - Hitman (Guest)
You had mac jones you might have had one or two of the same people that were telling us that it's going to be mac jones and I won't call them out. But thank you for that. 

52:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But well, you know what? Listen, listen. I mean that that person specifically has delivered me very good information before. So tremendous information, tremendous, tremendous info, yeah, but yeah, we're, we're. 

52:16 - Hitman (Guest)
We're likely talking about the same person and he's amazing. I'm just going to, I'm just giving them crap. 

52:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And the the the line had moved so much we got such a good number on Mac Jones that I was able to cut some risk on that as well, even when, you know, line started moving towards Trey Lance a little bit more, was able to get out of a little bit of that bet. But yeah, I mean that was. I definitely took a bath on that one. But I mean that's, that's the interesting thing about draft, right? Is there's so much news available to you? Obviously some of it is will be inside around draft time. 

52:50
90 of the quote-unquote inside information that I get over the course of my lifetime has been wrong. So for the most part I completely dismiss anyone who's like oh, you know, I know this guy in the giants front office and he's gonna take this. You know they're gonna take this guy, you know I. I just kind of filter out the fluff. That way I pay more attention to certain people that I think have influence or, historically speaking, have been very good at reporting real news. 

53:15
Um, you know, we have a guy in the office who comes in every day. He's talking about the draft. He's like oh, I read that this guy's going third overall and so on and so forth and I'll be like where did you hear that? And like this guy's mock draft. I'll go back and look at the last three years of this person's mock draft. It's absolutely horrible and whatever, like just throwing darts at a wall. How do you go about discerning between what? What's good news, bad news? Is there people that you follow specifically? Do you create Twitter lists? You don't have to give away your full process, but obviously this is very news driven for you. What's something that might move the needle for you? 

53:50 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, well, just to go back to your point about mock drafts, I think mock drafts are really overrated because so many people just don't know it's just for clicks. For the most part, that on a mock draft now Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft I'm going to pay attention now and a few other people I'm going to pay attention to their mock draft, but for the most part I'm really not worried about it. But yeah, you know it's, it's having a good idea. One of my strengths is knowing team personnel, player personnel and having an idea of some gms personnel, guys, what their tendencies are, having an idea of what their needs are, where they spend. You know, you come into an off season with a certain amount of needs. Well, where did this team maybe a team had three or four needs. Maybe they put a lot of money to two of those needs or three of those needs. Well, they still have a big need at one spot that they didn't locate a lot of money to. 

54:42
So just knowing that and then just beat writers, twitter lists, as you said, just know the people that are actually giving you information. Know the people that when they say they have, they actually do have sources, because you know, like you said, you get it. All the time. People are reaching out to you, probably through twitter, and saying you all, I know this, I know that and you know, sometimes, more than more often than not, it typically is they're just, they're just guessing, but you do get those few people that they really do give you great information. So it's really just. It's really just that. But, like you said, mock drafts, I'm kind of pay attention to a few, but not a ton. 

55:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, as these guys both mentioned, by the way, to anyone listening, like their info is there and in some cases comes through, but a lot of the times is wrong. So just fair warning never risk. It's never certain. So don't. Just even if some, even if you think it's amazing info same guy had it last year, year before he's hit two in a row, he has the info. He knows he's going third overall. Like you're not going to be able to get down like a hundred thousand dollars on these. So it's not about that. But if you're, if you're a guy who's a hundred dollar better and that's your max bet, don't go betting a thousand on this. Like it is not guaranteed. I'll just make that very clear for everyone listening. 

55:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, we're now a week before the draft. We know that there's going to be a lot of casual fans very interested in betting on the draft who've probably not taken any positions yet. If you're talking to more of a casual recreational, better now hit man. What's one piece of advice you'd give to someone who's looking to bet the NFL draft this week? 

56:20 - Hitman (Guest)
Follow the late news. I spoke about it a little earlier. Um, pay attention. There's going to be injury news that's probably going to come out in the next week about some prospects. There's going to be news where someone like jeremiah or another respected person is going to say, hey, this person's stock is way up, this person's stock is way up, this person's stock is way down. So probably the best piece of advice for someone just getting into it is follow the news from reliable people and then, if you do have a lot of accounts, which anybody trying to win should be ready to pick off some stale numbers, because, as you know, if the draft there's no Don best screen books are moving. If an NFL side moves, every book changes the line within 30 seconds with the draft, stuff will hang. So have as many outs as possible and try to take advantage of it that way. 

57:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We are typically not a picks podcast, but we did have you on for the Superbowl special, which was our first ever picks episode, and let's make this a second here. We won't. You know I'm not going to ask you to give out a million positions here or anything like that, but you're obviously a guy that likes to get out ahead of numbers and, you know, find valuable positions here For those that are listening. Throw out a couple plus EV positions that you think are still out there for the draft. 

57:41 - Hitman (Guest)
Well, I'm going to try to improve on my career. 0% winning percentage on your podcast as I gave out cam acres over and the guy ran for probably like one yard per carry A bunch of attempts, yeah, with a bunch of attempts. So I guess I could try to. I'll blame it on that. Stuff I couldn't control. 

58:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Just some bad variants, man, just some bad variants. 

58:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, you got to get in the let's get in the win column. What do you got for the draft? 

58:07 - Hitman (Guest)
There we go. Kyle Hamilton, over nine and a half is, I believe, still out there. Over 10 and a half is still good. Anything, 11 and a half is a pass, but it's nine and a half, 10 and a half everywhere. 

58:26
You've heard so many respected people out there in the draft market that have come out and said that Hamilton stock is falling because he ran the four, seven, 40, his pro day and just some concerns about safety just not being a premium position. And Daniel Jeremiah even went out so far to say you know, I think Hamilton will be the first safety but I'm not convinced there's an outside chance. Daxton Hill might even go before him. So you know, if you look at this, has gotten bet up. I bet it at six and a half, I bet it at eight and a half, but at nine, which is Seattle, they are not taking a safety with Jamal and Quandre, diggs and the Jets. They have a ton of needs and safety is one of them. So there is a remote chance that they would take a safety. 

59:07
But it seems like from everybody that's plugged into that organization that they are looking to go uh, edge, rusher and receiver, and if it's not one of those two there. Joe douglas, or gm, is a big believer in building the line of scrimmage, so offensive line would probably be the third option that they would go at. So I think that for even at the again it's been bet up in this process, but I don't think it's been bet up enough. Kyle Hamilton over nine and a half or ten and a half is probably my favorite bet at the current market right now for the draft. 

59:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can always count on the jets to go running back as well. 

59:46 - Hitman (Guest)
There we go. 

59:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, that's a you know good position. We'll take a look forward and we'll make sure. Um you know obviously shopping around for the best odds. You know, as hit man mentioned, so many different books have different prices here. So you know, nine and a half half, he says, is good. Ten and a half is good, as rob mentioned earlier. If it's 11 and a half, don't play it. There's a. It's not no longer a good play. Hitman's not playing at 11 and a half, he's only playing at 10 and nine and a half. All right, what else? We got anything else here? 

01:00:10 - Hitman (Guest)
if not, maybe rob gives out a pick I mentioned the daxton hill prop, how jeremiah said that he thinks he could go before hamilton. Well, you could still get Daxton Hill uh, minus one 60, I think, at draft Kings and minus one 35 at FanDuel to go in the first round. I think that's a pretty good play. I know over one and a half, safeties has been absolutely getting steamed and that was a huge bet that I made and a lot of my logic behind it was hey, I think Daxton Hill is going to go in the first round and a Lewis sign from um, from um, what school? To Georgia that he could be the third one. So I thought that over one I have, safeties was good. 

01:00:49
The values pretty much sucked out of that, but you could still find value on Daxton Hill to to go in the first round at one of those books. And I think that there's a it's funny because it's over under draft spot at a lot of places is like 26 and a half and the fact that what would you rather do? Wait, take 20 under 26 and a half at minus one 15, or what do you go in the first round at minus one 35? 

01:01:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's an absolute no brainer to lay the one 35 and get that six spot cushion, so I think that that's a pretty good play at the current market as well I've seen the safeties prop yeah get steamed heavily over the course last week and I've seen a lot of uh sauce gardner props uh get steamed pretty heavily lately as well. 

01:01:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We we're italian here, so we call them sugo gardner around, uh, around the office is very much an inside joke but thoughts on a middle there on that prop, then the over 26 and a half and then yes on the first rounder I mean it's plus ev for sure, but with the draft you know it's a tough time getting down on these markets and everything. 

01:01:57 - Hitman (Guest)
Maybe that it's not worth it. But you know I'm a big believer in only middling when there's value on both sides. Unless you just have like a uncomfortable position on one side, like if you bet tampa futures before brady came back and you have 50 to 1 or whatever on them to win the super bowl and it gets to the super bowl and you're saying, hey, I this is uncomfortable, having this amount riding on a game, then I'll do a negative ev hedge. But I kind of think that that 26 and a half is probably about what it should be and I think that the to go first round, that both those prices, is the bet that actually has value. So it's plus ev middle. 

01:02:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But I'd probably just play straight, yeah, so just straight on. The yes is going to be your value there, and then you're basically just hedging out at a neutral or negative ev. Right, not a move that you want to be making. However, if you're a 20, better, um, and you only want to take a 20 position on the yes, potentially what you could do here is, you know, bet 100, uh, and then bet 80 back on the over 26 and a half for sure, for sure so draft is in a week. 

01:03:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What happens, uh, to the hitman after nfl draft is over? Because you still got some nba playoffs, but we still got four months to nfl season. We have some usfl I guess I'm not sure if you're involved in that at all, but you just take a few, uh, few months off, relax, hit the links, dunk a couple balls in the water. What happens to you over the next few months? 

01:03:27 - Hitman (Guest)
Yeah, I mean I'm never fully taking off, but during NFL season it's like you can't leave your computer screen but you can't leave your office. But when it gets to May, june, july, I'm still going to be betting some NBA stuff. I'm still going to be betting some NBA stuff. I'm still going to be betting some other sports. I have a great connections of people, very good connections of people that send me stuff and say hey, this one account, this is plus CV here and all that. So but a lot of that you know I could bet on my. 

01:03:56
I could be out somewhere and bet it on my phone. I could be on vacation and bet it on my phone. So I'm doing a lot less but I'm always betting. A day really doesn't go by where I'm not betting, but it's just a matter of hey, I can afford today to be on a golf course for four hours and if there's something good on this specific type of skin, I can just log in a few of my accounts in between my shanks out of play and put it in, so something like that. So I'm going to still be betting. I'm going to be the NFL market betting a lot of futures regular season wins over under yardage for the season on quarterbacks, running backs, all that stuff's going to be coming out, so I'll be doing all that, but it's definitely time where I could take a breather before August comes around. 

01:04:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Are you one of the guys that'll be in line when the regular season win totals open up in New Jersey? 

01:04:50 - Hitman (Guest)
They've already been out for like two weeks so far. Yeah, like all the major sites like DraftKings, Caesars, MGM, FanDuel all the major sites have them up right now and you know, if you go in person a lot of times, then you'll get friendlier limits, and it's a market that a lot of people aren't paying as much attention to. So I've got a few regular season wins already where I was able to get down what I wanted to get down. So, yeah, I've already started with that. 

01:05:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Are you going to ride the Ravens over nine and a half train with me? You know? 

01:05:25 - Hitman (Guest)
so obviously I make my own numbers and it's just. You know you make a spread on all the Ravens games, you find a win probability and you come out to a number. I have value on the Ravens over. So I do like that. I get that everything. I get everything that you're saying about they were so injured last year and everything. They still went. I think eight and nine despite all those injuries. I'm with you on all that. The only thing that gives me a little bit of caution with the Ravens over is just that you have a quarterback, due to his play style, is more susceptible to injuries and if you're betting a season long bet like that, you know he could miss four or five games. We saw it last year with him. So you know Lamar Jackson's obviously going to have a higher probability of getting injured than um Tom Brady will agree for a season. 

01:06:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also based on those injury reports, it looks like he's got the weakest immune system in the league. 

01:06:23 - Hitman (Guest)
You know it's always something with him. 

01:06:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's weird he's missing all the always due to non-covid illness. 

01:06:29 - Hitman (Guest)
He's missing a practice, two practices a week, three or four times already too. So I don't know, it's always something with him. But I'll agree. You know the ravens will probably be a team that I'm looking more on a week-to-week basis to bet on them, maybe be a little higher on them on. I will be a little higher on them than the market will week to week, but for the season wins lean over. Maybe you'll convince me that's your job, rob, during the off season. Convince me to bet the ravens over because I'm you might push me to the ledge because I am strongly leaning over. 

01:07:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean listen, the Steelers are probably going to be dog shit Probably. 

01:07:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. 

01:07:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, you have the Browns, who are likely going to have a Deshaun Watson suspension Likely, but even then probably a little bit overrated heading into the year, just based off of pulling the trigger for a premier quarterback. 

01:07:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But is this like when? Are they playing the Ravens though? 

01:07:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I'll look into that now. But priced in is the fact that the Browns are expected. They're probably overrated by market. And then to me, like, obviously the Bengals are great, but the Bengals are a Joe Burrow injury, away from being, in my opinion, a lottery like a top five draft pick this year as well. I think he's just so crucial to what they do. 

01:07:46
So then you add in, like the positive regression factors for Baltimore, like you mentioned. I mean, this is not I'm not reinventing the wheel here, but historically speaking, teams who suffer a lot of injuries over the course of a season. They perform a little bit better in the next season. And the Ravens, like they played half the year without three quarters of their starting secondary and like they were missing nickel and dime corners for most of the year as well, is it? I mean I like I think they're well coached, I think they have a good quarterback, maybe prone to injury because of his style of play, I think the division, I mean it's good, but probably being a little bit overvalued in market. So that's the one that stood out to me. 

01:08:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I shouldn't be saying all these things yet breaking, honestly having that the breaking news edge here. Breaking news, let's go breaking news. 2022 nfl schedule. Release date Not announced yet Projected to be between May 10 and 12. Take a look at the Browns schedule Weeks 1 I'd say through 6, could get two games in Versus the same team division rival, so win total over there. If you believe Deshaun Watson is going to get suspended. 

01:09:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep. 

01:09:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Interesting. 

01:09:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't know who the backup will be for the Browns. Win total over there. If you believe Deshaun Watson is going to get suspended. Yeah, interesting. We don't know who the backup will be for the Browns. Right, it's probably worse than Watson. Yeah, I know, cause like Baker's done Like he's not going to be a Brown right. 

01:09:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, he might even be moved before the draft. 

01:09:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, so we'll see. I really appreciate the time hit man, try to catch up with you again before NFL season. But we'll ask you our closing question, which we ask to everyone that we have on the podcast, and we've got a lot of differing answers. So so far, if you could go back in time and talk to a previous version of yourself, let's say from five years ago, what piece of advice would you? 

01:09:37 - Hitman (Guest)
give to your old self. Make as many connections as possible. It's so crucial. And you know one thing is a lot of pro bettors are so book smart but they don't have as many social skills as they just leave a lot to be desired sometimes. With that, and I'm and I'm the opposite I'm far from the most book smart person in the world, but I feel like that I've done a good job, meeting a lot of people that are a lot smarter than me and have helped me become what I am and continue to help me. I would just tell myself from five years ago hey, treat everybody good, don't burn any bridges and reach out to as many people that can help you and see how you can help them, and you might be able to make a partnership based off of that. So that would probably be the number one thing I would have said to myself when I was first starting is just make as many connections as possible with people. 

01:10:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well said, completely agree with it, and I definitely wouldn't be at the state that I'm at now without having made connections in the past, and that includes with you as well. Uh, hitman, appreciate you having, appreciate having you on um. You can follow him on twitter at hitman428. He's a pro, better handicapper at pregamecom. You can check out his content as well at bet prep us. Uh, appreciate you joining us for episode 53 of circles off. Good luck with the nfl draft and in the upcoming season as well appreciate it, guys. 

01:11:09 - Hitman (Guest)
Thank you.