00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off episode number 55. I'm rob azzola, joined by johnny from betstamp in his classic toronto arenas, jersey it's a big, big day for the city, but a huge, massive win. 

00:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The maple leaves yesterday, great game. We're now leading the series 3-2. By the time this airs, actually the city made a huge, massive win. The Maple Leafs yesterday, great game. We're now leading the series 3-2. By the time this airs actually be able tomorrow, that'll be the day Leafs in six. We're taking this one home. We're going on a round two. For the first time in 20-plus years, we are fired up in Toronto. We're definitely fired up on this podcast. We're back after a week off. Thank you everyone. Week off, thank you everyone. 

00:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, sorry we were gone. Rob has a big announcement about the studio renovations newly renovated studio, as everyone can see. For those who are listening, you'll have to check out on youtube and click that subscribe button on youtube as well and the thumbs up, please. Obviously that helps support us. But yeah, we had to take a week off. Uh, not gonna lie, we did really pretty much. We, the renovations, were upgrading the internet in the studio, which would need it to be done. We we rely on good video quality and audio quality, so the tech had to be up to par. We may have also went to the leafs game that night. After the fact, someone may have brought a broom that got confiscated. 

01:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Guys, we brought a broom, Delusional Leaf fans. The headline read who's we? The headline in the Toronto Star, which is a local newspaper here, read the next morning Delusional Leaf fans bring a broom to game two in a Tampa Bay Lightning route. And it was yours truly, it was the BetStamp boys, it was the team here. We picked up a broom, we brought it to the game. The Leafs are up 1-0. 

01:51
The broom obviously symbolizing the sweep. There literally never has been a chance to do this. Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series in over 20 years. It's a serious thing, actually, I guess it's not over 20 years. Roughly in over 20 years it's. It's a serious thing actually, I guess it's not over 20 years. 

02:11
But roughly, you know, you get, you get lost. Yeah, you get lost when it's been that that long. And even then it was just really, I mean one, one round of win. But uh, yeah, we constantly lost. You know we usually don't win game one in the series and we usually don't have home ice. So we, we did win game one, we did have home ice. It was a chance we could sweep 4-0. Um, and obviously you know that's, that's what you want to do, you want to have that broom in hand. It was confiscated so the broom actually was able to enter the stadium. We got the broom in to the stadium. Plan was obviously, you know, you store it under the seats and then, um, you know, if you do end up in a scenario where, let's say, it's a 5-1 game, mid-third, say, four minutes left in the game in the third period and you're up even 5-2, even, you take out that broom, you start that Leafs in 4 chant iconic would be an iconic moment and you're, and that's a sports center top 10. 

02:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that gets you on tv and we're obviously starved for attention, myself and Johnny, which is why we do this podcast as well. But yeah, getting on tv is massive with a broom in hand, that's. That's one of those that gets replayed forever, like, imagine then. Then the leafs blow the two nothing series. That's obviously going to get played over and over, right for sure, or if they end up going on, to actually sweep. It appears, you know, down the line in history is like these guys called the sweep and whatever. 

03:22
But what really fired me up that night was, uh, things weren't going well. Um, we had, we had about 20 of us, uh, in the same section at the Leafs game. Also, get me on, I'm going to talk about seat shaming as well afterwards. Don't let me forget about talking about that. But we're all in the same section and it's uh, getting towards the end of the second intermission. Leafs are losing. I run out to take a leak really quickly. I get out of the washroom, I see Johnny and another one of our friends at the bar and we're just kind of like you know, we're a little bit down. We're talking to the bartender, brad. You know, brian Brad, something like that. That was his name, and we're just like you know. We got to will this team back into the game. All of a sudden, doesn't one of the workers at the scotia bank arena start sweeping the floor behind us with the very broom that we brought into the arena? 

04:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
they confiscated the broom. I kid you guys not. They confiscated the broom and they put it back in the broom closet and then proceeded to then have the regular employees, the the staff there use that broom not only to add insult to injury, they were sweeping right by the feet of us. Second intermission I believe we're down actually 5-1 at that point. 

04:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Either 4-1 or 5-1, it was not looking I think it was only 3-1 at that time. 

04:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we still had a shot, I think. 

04:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I can't remember. We had a lot of beers that night, but yeah, it was. It was just a such a slap in the face that they would not only take the broom, but then they would use the broom. 

04:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, granted, it is like that's the use they thought that we probably stole it from the the janitor closet or something like that yeah, but all the other brooms, if you had noticed were different brooms, I picked up on this real exactly, and this was just like a I don't know, it's ten dollar broom standard house broom. 

05:06
You know, we stopped in at the grocery store on the way, got it. Uh, you know, just a standard broom, like you know short bristles, nothing. Industrial quality. That's kind of the broom you need when you're signifying a sweep and you want to wave it in the air. You don't you. You don't want an industrial broom with the with the tough bristles. But anyways, we dig, we digress, we lost that game. We went on to win the next one, went on to lose the next one and then we went on to win the next one, so it's now 3-2 Leafs. 

05:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I like how you say we as well. 

05:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a huge. 

05:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I'm wearing the jersey, so I'm on the team, right, but I mean a lot of you know they played the game themselves. 

05:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Absolutely, and really the stadium was absolutely electric yesterday. I do have to touch on this narrative because you bet on hockey. So Andre Vasilevsky, the goalie for Tampa Bay. It's a huge narrative they don't lose, back-to-back, dating back however many seasons. 

06:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's only two seasons, it's only three seasons. This is three. 

06:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is three, the third season. He doesn't lose in the playoffs back-to-back, and obviously they've won back-to-back Stanley Cups. So if he loses the next game he wins. Okay. Now, I've heard this so many times now. It just frustrated me. The odds of the game do not change. Based on this. They're the same, roughly within reason, right? You have like exact exact kind of thing here where it's like, okay, tampa bay was minus 120 at home, then now for this game, you know they're gonna be roughly around that same price. Do you put any stock into this? But how do you feel when people just continue to jam this? 

06:33
I mean the whole media this is a tough one because this go ahead. 

06:37 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Zach johnny's obviously not considering the do factor. 

06:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, the do factor is is one thing that is is real in sports, but there actually are, depending on the sport, right, I bet a lot more nhl. Um, you know you bet nba, as do I, but like to a different extent. There are things called series effects in the playoffs. That don't happen in the regular season. So you get it in the nba with the team down, oh two. Returning home, you get like that crazy first half number which is people always like oh, how is this team favored in the first half and underdogs for the full game? Well, because we have like a lot of historical data that is showing us that this is a angle and and like the market has started to take to account for that. Now you get into a sample size of 17 games for tampa bay, which are 16, 16 or 17 regardless. It's small, but have not lost two games in a row. 

07:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They are usually favored in most of their games correct. 

07:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So that's one thing you have to account for. Right is were they expected to win? What were the? What was the chances of them actually going on this run, like just by multiplying odds? It's very low, it's lower than one percent. But now you have to look into. Okay, were they lucky in these games? Like I would look at not only the actual goals of the games but the underlying metrics as well, because there's a lot of variance in hockey, especially since it's a um low event type of game. Right, you only get a certain amount of goals, it's it's not like the nba where there's way less variance because there's so many baskets over the course of the game, there's so few shooting events in hockey or relative to other sports that their variance takes over. So you start to look at that other stuff. I mean Tampa Bay tends to respond, play above their regular metrics in games following a loss. How much stock do I put into that? How much stock does my model put into that? Zero, can I definitively say it is not a factor? No? 

08:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's just something to talk about though. 

08:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's more likely to be a narrative than a real thing. 

08:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Prior to Game 3, so 1-1 series. So Toronto's now going on the road for game three. Um, on the actual broadcast on the tv broadcast before the game, this was this is what was said. They said toronto is on the road, they are now a road team tied one, one going in. They said if they win this game, the likelihood that they win the next game is slim because most teams who go up two to one on the road lose game four. And then they brought it back to the booth and then they finished the stat and he said that's actually only 46 percent of teams win game four after being up to one, which is essentially, you know, almost 50, 50. 

09:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But and it's probably. It's probably above market odds too, because when you consider about the whole mice, yeah, so, so base basically. 

09:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, we've seen it in ontario. If you are in ontario right now, you're going to see gambling coverage on all of the networks for every sporting event. You saw for the raps, definitely, it's full swing for the maple leafs right now, and if they do go on a deep playoff run, knock on some wood which we're hoping here then we are going to get a ton of gambling coverage. And what I will say is like it's not even a piece of advice. Just in general, do not listen to any of these narratives. They are all like. Every single one of them is just given to you based on like an actual, like stat generator that these companies purchase, whether it be a data provider or something like that, and if some of them may have stock, some of them may not have stock. But I guarantee you this the tv network and the people giving these out have zero clue if they have stock or not, so they're not really analyzed. They're pretty much just kind of like a waste of time. 

10:19
The best indicator you have of who's going to win game four is open bet stamp. Check the odds. We got the little percentages beside it. The true odds of the game are the best indicator. That is where you can actually make money and you can tell this to your buddies too. You can literally say this exact line, which is the true money line odds, like the money line odds of the game are the best indicator in exact percentage terms of who's going to win the game. And if they weren't, and if you don't believe they are, then you literally have hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars to make via betting. So very similar to you know, pricing and efficient market hypothesis and things like that. But, you know, ignore all the narrative. That's one area of the leaf games that's been getting me, you know, riled up uh, just a question for you guys to clarify as well. 

11:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I've seen a lot online, uh, especially on twitter, people getting kind of annoyed, especially with the gambling stuff that's being put out there, how it's being displayed. What would you guys say to people who believe that these companies ie tsn, sportsnet are putting out these lines because they benefit from people losing? So they're putting out lines to bait people into betting on something for them to lose, so that Sportsnet and TSN win from other people losing? 

11:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, for those listening in the US, tsn Sportsnet are the big sports media channels in Canada, similar to an ESPN, obviously, in the US. And now what's happened in Canada is there are partnerships with sportsbooks because there's a lot of money to be made and at the end of the day you know, you look at betting odds being incorporated into broadcasts, betting analysis being incorporated into broadcasts. These are done to keep sportsbook partners happy. Right, fanduel, who's entered an exclusive partnership with TSN Bet365, who's now a partner of Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada. They're not paying for nothing. They're paying so that they can get their name out there on these broadcasts and naturally that's going to come with it. 

12:13
Now the content itself there's probably a lot of room for improvement. Right, friend of mine, andy McNeil, who's with VSIN, is doing Hockey Night in Canada as a betting analyst. Who's with vcin is doing hockey night in canada as a betting analyst. Well, sn bets, sn bets, yeah, or sports net bets, and I mean, frankly, they're gonna they're gonna cut to him for 30 seconds and ask him what the live odds are in a game, and I think there's probably a segment of the population that's watching. That's going to be like what the hell is this like? Why don't they just talk about the game? And it's going to take a long time to get there for a lot of people. 

12:44
But the reality is sportsbooks are paying a lot of money for marketing. They want their name out there. They have negotiated terms with a lot of these media companies in terms of what they're going to get for it. Is it a conflict of interest? Some might argue, yes, I don't think andy in any bad faith is going to go on a station and recommend stuff that he doesn't believe in. Just knowing who he is as a person, would there be other people who do that For sure. But this is kind of the new age of sports betting now, where it's going to, whether you like it or not, it's going to be embedded in all the broadcasts that you view and you're going to have to be able to figure out a way to filter out what is good information from bad. And I mean the reality is most of it's going to be bad. 

13:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, fyi, just as an educational piece for people like, there is a difference between how you send and promote traffic for different sports books. So you know, one major example I'll give here is within Betstamp, we promote for sports books, right, but in no way are we hoping that our clientele loses or the people we send a sportsbook lose money. We actually do not get any piece of any, like losing income or whatever you want to call it. So when we refer a player to a sportsbook, we say, hey, the best sportsbook that we think you might want to sign up at is sportsbook A or B or C. Obviously, the answer is all of them. But if we had to recommend three, maybe go abc here, sign up at these three. You know each of those sportsbooks will pay us a flat fee, one-time fee, for having that customer sign up and deposit and, you know, play at their sportsbook. However, we're never, ever getting a cut of like that player's losses. 

14:19
So when we look at the deals, I think it's very important to distinguish, like, what types of deals that people have in place. 

14:25
There are people who you know play on the other side of that and they only look for a sports player's losses as part of their compensation. 

14:31
So they'll say, don't even bother, giving me a flat fee up front, but whatever this player loses, give me 30 or 50 or whatever it might be. So in those cases what I'd say is we'd look at the type of deals and this is kind of more like me defending TSN and Sportsnet. But those deals are largely just like one-time payments, like big big contracts right when they say we're the exclusive ad provider, we're exclusive on all of this stuff, you're going to put our branding, our logos, all of this stuff within TSN and they're just paying TSN like millions of dollars for that in cash, regardless of how many players actually come over and regardless of how much money players might lose or win at the sports book. So I'll come to the defense and say I don't actually think anyone giving out content on those networks is giving out picks on purpose that are going to make people lose. However, are they giving out good information and value? Probably not, but it's definitely not on purpose. 

15:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, agreed with a lot of what you said there. Just to add to what you're saying as well. And just, um, I mean we, we preach like transparency, integrity, like that's one of the things we do most affiliates that send you to a sportsbook. You go to any affiliate site I won't name them, but obviously a lot of people listening know what I'm talking about or if you do a Google search on where to bet and so on and so forth, you're going to get sites that usually will send you to the sports books that are paying them the most, and this is what's called the CPA cost per acquisition. But when Johnny talks about a flat fee, that's what we refer to as, and each sports book is going to pay you a different amount for traffic. So a lot of these sites will promote sportsbooks. 

16:03
Why would I send a player to sportsbook a that's only paying me 200, when I could send them the sportsbook b that's paying 400? That's not what we do. We. We bet at all these sportsbooks. It's one of the things that we personally do, and we try to cater traffic to the sportsbook that's going to be the best fit for someone, rather than who's going to pay us the most. So that's that the other thing, just to add to what Johnny was saying as well. 

16:28
You got to. You know, from a media perspective, you want to keep partners happy. That's just how the world works, right? If you're partnered with anybody on something, they're paying you for a service. You want to keep them happy and that's what it comes down to. 

16:41
When you know you see a site getting promoted on a broadcast, that's you know where, it has 10 million viewers or so on and so forth, trying to keep your partners happy. I mean, these are not. In some cases these are long-term deals. But in some cases a sportsbook will sign a short-term deal with a media company and that media company wants that sportsbook to stick around in the long run. So when it's time to renegotiate down the road, they can say, hey, we did this, this, this, this for you, we'd appreciate your business again, and that's just the way the world works. 

17:14
It's common sense, but it is jarring. Like I talked to my dad, right? My dad's messaging me during intermission sometimes where he's like what does this mean? What does that mean? Doesn't bet on sports, right? And he's used to watching hockey games and basketball games in a certain way where there is no talk about what the live line is in the game, any player props on the broadcast and so on and so forth. So it's evolving. People are going to have to get used to it. But at the end of the day, money talks and there's a lot of money in the space right now. 

17:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I do think the main issue with it just me talking candidly here is the. The content that they're putting out is good, basically, for for no one. It's like such a small percentage of the population that would enjoy that right, because you have a large majority of people who don't even really know what betting is. So when you tell them, hey, the leafs money line is uh minus 1100 at the intercept, at the intermission, and they they might say like, yeah, this means that the Leafs are this likely to even with that. Like nobody knows what you're talking about, like the mass majority of people. You know the, the older generation that has been watching for years coach's corner, whatever. They don't even know what that is or care about that. 

18:18
And then you have the people who actually do bet because within Canada you actually do bet because within canada you know betting just formally regulated on april 4th here, which is a month ago, but reality, people have been betting for years in canada, um, whether it be via the pro line or the gray area and stuff like that. And it's kind of just like those people who anyone who actually had a betting account before had any knowledge. They already know all of that stuff and they don't need the info. So you you're basically like and again like this this is like Andy segment on Sportsnet bets, as well as like almost all the other segments. They're just like giving contents like in between, an area where it's like, okay, I bet, so like I actually don't give a shit about this because this is useless to me. 

18:59
And then it's like, oh, I don't bet, I'm interested in learning, but this is kind of like way over my head because I don't even know, like what these numbers are on the screen Right. So I think that right now is kind of like where we're at and why there's so much complaints. You know Zach Zach's question behind the counter here why there's so many complaints like who's that content for? So such a small subset of people who knew nothing about betting and then started to learn it and they're now in there. But anyone who actually bets is not really getting value from that. So I do think like that content might be better in like a year from now, once people might have, you know, a little bit more of a base and you've transitioned the casual fan into someone who understands about betting. 

19:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed, so lacking educational content at first. And, granted, I understand why people wouldn't want to do that because, I mean, frankly, we do a lot of educational content. We went through it ourselves for the first. I mean, dozen episodes of this podcast were mainly focused on specific topics and we kind of evolved it going forwards. But it's very tough when you're dealing with like short segments right one to two minutes to explain a concept to a person and does that resonate with them. Is it interesting? I think of tsn before the games. Right, they have a former player, mike johnson uh, he used to play in the nhl who I actually think is a great analyst of the hot of hockey, but giving out picks 10 to 15 minutes before every game, usually player props, always at one specific sports book who's a partner of tsn and standard. 

20:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, of course. 

20:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I get it. I'm not saying I don't get it right, but like very, very likely doing a disservice to everyone who's listening to that segment, everyone, because we know how markets work and like, right before game time you're least likely to find value on something. I'm not saying that you can never find value before the game, but least likely to find value at that time. But I mean, is that what's resonating with people right now? It's hard for me to say, because I view from a different lens. Right, I view from the lens of somebody who now realizes that that is not providing value to anyone, but maybe it's providing value in the sense that someone thinks they're getting value. Do you know what I'm getting at? 

21:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
yeah, there's like a such a huge subset of people who don't even know that, like, fan duel is a sports book. That's what I'm saying like, and these are fans, right, so you're, they're gonna get the exposure on that and then by the end of this season, you know, people are gonna know that fan does a sports book. You can sign up there and make bets. But and that's just not just based on these segments but also based on the commercials and stuff and regular advertisements. But like, who is who? Is that segment for right, in a sense of even even just thinking of it this way? Um, you need to learn a little bit about it, right, but I'm on my couch watching the game, sipping a beer during second intermission. Like I don't want to. I don't want a training course on my tv where I have to pay attention and like I'm gonna have buddies over. Like it's not really the setting for that. 

21:50
Um, so, even to your point, it's like, yeah, maybe educational content, are they going to do that? Like that's not entertaining and it's definitely not a setting where you have like a two-minute segment. The guys want to hear, like you know, someone talk and maybe give a hot take and then they discuss with their boys. Man, I guess guys completely out to lunch doesn't know what he's talking about. And then another guy's like no, he's making a good point. That's what you want. You don't want to like, start drawing a whiteboard, right? 

22:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
right. So I think maybe the issue that I have is that there's like a complete distinction between the regular broadcast and the betting broadcast and if it were, if I was running content for one of these sites, I would hire a pro better. So Andy is fine for NHL, Like I have zero. He's betting at high limits, winning better, better, you know complete. But you have to embed them in the actual broadcast in some capacity where they're part of the crew. That's actually talking about the. Andy knows a ton about hockey. Never played the game before. You know he's not an insider never played the game. 

22:48
You gotta get that clip. Yes, sean avery, he, he's never. You know he's not inside, but you can incorporate him into the conversations, right? Um, as an analyst. Betting analysts can be like analyze the game, that's what we do. We just do it more from a numerical perspective and once you start to embed that in, like the, the daily everything, it just becomes much more tolerable and people start to learn. But when you start to separate it, it's like, oh, you know they're throwing to the betting desk. It's like I don't know what like it it's, it's just disconnected from everything else. You know what I'm saying. 

23:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know what I'm getting at yeah, I know, I know I I don't know what the answer is. I mean, I'm not really interested in like broadcasting or media too too much, so I don't even know like what, what. 

23:30
Like I'm not going to change anything up, but it's not my thing, right, but we'll see where it goes. I think for the most part it has been uh fun to see. At least, you know, we got more books. We got like it's becoming more mainstream, people like talking about betting, stuff like that. So we're happy, happy about that. Um, what else we got here? 

23:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to vegas this week you're going to vegas I am. Where are you staying? I actually don't know. Okay, diana booked the. Uh has booked the trip. My trips when I go myself versus when I go with my wife could not be any more opposite, polar opposites. I will have a spa day while I'm there, usually my first day. A couple shows some nice dinners. The amount of time I will spend in the casino will be less than 60 minutes over the course of an entire trip casino. 

24:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, casino is tough I love it though I listen. 

24:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you play? Uh, everything, you just gamble. Yeah, listen, I know what the expectation is. 

24:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know you like that horse race machine, the virtual horse race machine with the plastic. You know what I'm talking. 

24:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So actually the old school vegas guys will remember this. But, um, I used to really like the, the sigma derby machines. So these were like the, the old mechanical horses, you literally a quarter machine, okay, and they had a ton of them on the strip and then they slowly started to die over time and then on the strip, the last one I knew of was at mgm. I believe it's no longer there. There's only one left on the entire strip. It was at the d um where, which was next to circa, where bet bash 2 was happening. So I went to check out the machine absolutely rammed, couldn't even sit to play it if you wanted to. 

25:05
So now I've kind of evolved onto these uh, fortune cup horse racing machines. I've seen those bad boys. They change lanes and everything. It's not just like they're on the one track, amazing time guaranteed. The hold on those machines is like 20% minimum. But and you know, listen, I'm like the, uh, I'm, I'm everything that I don't preach as a sports better. When I'm in a casino, like everything that I don't preach as a sports better, I would literally, at those Sigma Derby machines, look around the table to see what everyone else is betting and just bet the numbers that people weren't betting, because I was convinced that the machine is calculating the hold based off of the bets okay, but that that might even be a thing maybe my betting? 

25:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, no, I'm just saying like that's listen, that's, it's potential that the algorithm of the machine works like that, because it's a, it's literally a machine that is calculating and has, like a program, an algorithm that writes it so that it doesn't lose money I'll tell you how big of a scumbag I am at this machine clip that this is how big of a scumbag I am. 

26:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you, you, usually have at that. 

26:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll tell you how big of a scumbag. No, no, no, I can't even say that. Then I'm gonna get clipped. 

26:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're gonna get cl if you say it, but I'll have you both on the board. The Sigma Derby machines, I believe. It's 30 seconds between races where you have to get your bets in, or 45 seconds between races. So I've concocted this and this was years ago, right, Like, like I said, there's only one machine in Vegas now, or whatever. But I concocted this hypothesis in my head of like, okay, the machine is calculating what everybody's betting, I gotta be on the side of the machine. You know how I tell people like you're paying a premium to bet on the side of the sports book. Well, you're not when you're betting on the same side of the machine, but you are because the VIG is so high. Don't anyways? It doesn't make sense in my head, but anyways, I wanna be on the same the opposites of everybody else at the table the problem is you want to win when everyone loses and be the one guy yelling, but I don't celebrate. 

27:02
I just sit there quietly, pretend like nothing's going on. I don't want to draw attention, right. And then, on top of that, a lot of the people that you sit down and play with, they're making their bets last minute, right. So it's very hard for you to process your bets if they're all waiting last minute. So I start spreading like rumors around at the table that I heard that these machines you're way more likely to win if you make your bets really quickly, really early. So I'm sitting down with all these people at this table, like 10 people firing bets really quickly. When I sit down I'm like, oh yeah. And then like a few people will win, because it's the nature in the machine. Everybody takes notice. So like, how quickly did you get your bet? And the guy's like, oh, two seconds. 

27:39
So now I'm watching everybody place their bets very quickly. You could tell people anything. So I have, so I can process all this information, right. So I'm looking out and this machine you can only bet exactor, so you can only bet the top the two. It's just the way that the the thing works. You're betting a combo and I'm looking and I'm trying to process. It's basically like rain man right going on and I'm processing all this information in real time, firing in my bets last minute and I'm definitely 100 this is no bs a lifetime winner at sigma derby, and I don't know if it's. I don't know if it's pure random variance or if the strategy is paying off. And listen, I'm talking quarters, like literally quarter machine, that I will sit there for three hours to grind out 30 bucks because I love it so much and love the, just the idea of beating the house, because I could have spent that three hours playing blackjack or craps or whatever, also had a good time, but probably lost more and that's it it. 

28:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's the story. But yeah, the key to a casino is to lose a nut like lose only an amount where you had enough fun that that loss and ev was worth your time. But you can't get that once you start betting, like on sports again. If you've ever placed like a sizable bet on sports and I'm not even talking like a big bomb banger, I'm talking something that's maybe like, let's say, you've placed a sizable bet on sports, and I'm not even talking like a big bomb banger, I'm talking something that's maybe like let's say, you've placed a hundred dollar bet on sports. Okay, now you've got that. 

29:05
It's kind of a little bit concerning for gambling. But now you've got like a hundred dollars in your mind like I just want a hundred bucks. It's now hard to go to the casino and literally bet a 125 cent. Like. It's hard to bet 25 cents, it's true, because then you're just like I lost 25 cents even. It's not even about gambling, actually, it's even like about your salary. You know if you make, if you make a certain amount per year, and now you're like ah well, it's 25 cents, to me it's not, it's not that fun it's. 

29:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like being velocitized right, like if you drive on the highway at 150 miles an hour for a long period of time and then you get off the highway and you're under like a speed limit of 40 miles an hour. You ain't driving 40, you're gonna zip it. You're gonna zip it because you're used to that speed. 

29:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And it's the same with sports betting the key is you have to stay at an amount where you could still have fun and, like that, that machine seems like a perfect thing for you, whereas like okay, you obviously don't care about the 30 bucks that you'll win or lose you know the most you might lose, you stay there all day. You probably lose like a hundred bucks, so it's not a big deal but also, like, if you can get the fun in it because of the machine, you're laughing. This is why I like betting against friends on stuff, because it doesn't matter how much you bet. 

30:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could only be two dollars, like we just bet in a golf match yeah, yes, I haven't given you any roulette spins in the office in a long time I think, we're probably like a 500 figure that johnny owes me from roulette spins in the office rob's gotta give me a couple free spins if you want me to play again. 

30:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm I'm holding out in my email inbox for some free spins, um, but anyways, I was saying, like even just betting on golf yesterday, we literally bet like it's like okay, two bucks a hole. If you just bet two bucks a hole, it's better. Because now what you're really saying is like we're playing for money, so like try your hardest. And now that you're trying your hardest because there's two bucks on the line, you can't be like I wasn't really trying about it. Right now you're like I had to try, I put two bucks on it, a hole, and then at the end of it like we don't even settle up. But he knows, I beat him for two bucks. I won a unit off him. That's the fun of it is beating your buddies, because that's now what we've come to. 

31:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't settle up because the money is insignificant. But it does allow us to play harder because you don't want to say that you lost to someone else. But if I do play with my dad and his friends, I literally have to hand out the toonies on the 18th green. The Americans will laugh at the toonies, like we have two dollar coins. But I have to hand out the toonies on the 18th green or else, like they'll never invite me to play again they'll actually be pissed they're actually like no, no, this is. 

31:30
You don't disrespect the spirit of the game. 

31:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like this I kind of I somewhat agree with that. 

31:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm like I gotta go get the toonies in my car. They're like you don't have the toonies on you Like why were you betting then? 

31:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why would you show up with? 

31:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And I'm like okay, buddy, like listen, I owe you four bucks, like I'll give you 10. It just settled down and I'll go get it at the car, like but yeah, it's cheap, she's, she gets it from her dad. I never said any of this, or no, no, it's okay, it's she gets. 

32:04
She would admit it. She gets it from her dad. You know very nice italian guy, but he got it from his dad, so on and so forth. My wife is very cheap. So we'll go to a casino, we'll be in vegas, we'll be on the casino floor and she'll be like I want to play some slots, but she's only gonna play penny slots, right. So I'll give her like a 20 20 dollars and I'll be like, okay, go play some slots. I'm gonna go play some. 

32:24
I'll go to like the high roller blackjack room and she's playing slots and like I'll lose like three or four dimes playing blackjack. And I'll find her on the casino floor and she's got like one of those cash out vouchers and it's like $24 and 60 cents, like she won $4 and 60 cents. She's so happy. And I got a drink and they gave me a drink, free drink, and I'm like, oh, good job, babe. I'm like I don't have the heart to tell her I just lost like 3000 bucks in 10 minutes playing blackjack, right. So I'm like oh yeah, but it's. 

32:54
It's hilarious, man. It's so completely random. She's so funny. She wins, like she'll win on one machine and then immediately cash it out and go to another machine because she's convinced very much like I am with sigma derby of my strategy that the machine knows that a new person has sat down. Because you put in your player's card, they know you're a new person that sat down. They want to give you a taste at the beginning so they make you win a little bit, and then you're going to go downhill from there, so she'll win a little bit at the beginning. Yeah, I'm also. 

33:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I also am convinced of that. I'm no, no, now, I'm not even joking, they actually do that. I don't play much casino. I'll be honest, I don't play casino. I haven't played casino in years but they do that. 

33:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wish we could have um. I wish I could talk to captain Jack about this when we had him on before RxGamble at some point. Gina, we'll have her on. Maybe she could provide some insight. I'm convinced that it's probably just entirely random. All these games are entirely random. 

33:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You always go up a little and then you say, wow, I should probably cash out here because they're giving me the early bonus, the early boost, just that taste to get back up. And then, without a doubt, you never cash out and dunk it all back. And that's a true thing. It's just like some something flickers in the machine at the back there, it's a little switch. It's like, okay, we got this guy hooked done I don't know if it's true. 

34:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Don't you think, though, that if that were true, then they would have the technology on the new machine to read your card and be like, ah, this player just won something. 

34:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, if you go different brands of machines she also rotates between my players card and hers sometimes. So there you go. Yeah, she's. She's trying to just throw the scent off a little bit, but yeah, I mean it's, uh, vegas is a great spot. It gets me into, uh, the dgen mode a little bit. I know fully what I'm getting into. I don't have any problem gaming stuff. I'm not addicted to betting at all, but I have a good time doing it. I love the monopoly slots machines, especially because they have, like, what I call the pity pup. I don't know if you guys don't play slots, so yeah, I'm gonna. 

34:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm gonna come clean on slot, on slots, and just like share my story about slots. Okay, I don't know what the fuck is going on, dude. 

34:59
It's too complicated I sit down at the slot machine. I've done it like five separate times in my life. I've sat down, whether it be like cash that I put in, or coins or card, whatever it was. I've sat down, I've looked at them like I don't know what the hell's going on. I've clicked some buttons, stuff started spinning. I had no idea what the payouts were, what I was potentially going to happen, and then every single time I lost my money with this. Like whatever I always go max spin, I lose all my money literally. It's been like the max I've ever survived is like maybe three or four spins on a single machine. Never knew what the fuck was going on, left every time and said how do people sit at these? 

35:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
all day okay, what are these? So you'll literally sit and read sportsbook rules for half an hour to try to find a little edge, see you're in there, and then you won't read the rules that are actually on them. Like every, every single slot machine, like, has a button that shows all the rules. 

35:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, if I'm putting in for the machine 25 cents, I'm not, I'm going up there and I want. 

35:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
25 cents is the cost of one line, though, right oh, one line. 

36:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
See, why is it like lines and stuff like that? 

36:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
this is what I want. Line three. 

36:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Line nine I want make a simpler slot machine, here's the, here's the ideal slot. Okay, you go up this slot machine, three things, just like in the movies three, three slots, lever at the side, you put in your money and then there's like a which your money is just your risk amount. How about that? Easy enough. Whatever you put in, that's your risk. Right, you can obviously segment it in, but, like your money is just your risk, it's not like, oh, this is four lines. And then, like lucky sevens and all these different other games, I just want to put my money in and say I put 20 bucks in. If you get the triple seven, you win the jackpot. Everything else, cash gone, that's the slot. 

36:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you want an all or nothing. You want jackpot only. Everything else is a loser yeah, that's the slot. 

36:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like I just want to do that. And then if they were, if there was that slot and I saw a big enough jackpot, you know, if I'm strolling by the casino, an extra 20 I might toss it in there and enjoy my one, my one spin I can tell you the obvious reason why that doesn't happen. 

37:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
People won't do it. Well, you're going to lose your money like 27 times slower than the other machines where you're betting all the combinations. There's no like. 

37:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but then you're. But this could be like one. Make one slot like this. It'd be a beautiful slot. I'd love to play that slot. 

37:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's literally a big bomb slot machine. There was a bomb bang. There was, um, one of my first trips to vegas I stayed at the mgm and there was one machine on the strip. So there there's apparently a series of machines on the strip, uh, slot machines. I can't remember what. They're called lucky lions, something like I I'm the name eludes me um, but they were ones that had massive jackpots that that you know would take a. They were. They were big jackpots. So essentially, um, the way that it worked is if you won the jackpot, you'd also take home the machine, like they were. They took that long to pay out and there was only one left on the strip and it was at the mgm and there was always a line to play it always, and it was. It was like the jackpot was at like 1.1 million, something like that. 

37:57
And I came down for breakfast one morning. Line was small, there was only like two people in front of me. I'm like this is the shortest I ever seen. This line. I'm gonna play it. I'm gonna play this machine. So it's third in line. I played the machine for like 15 minutes, lost whatever money I had in my pocket, went on with my day. I'm in the poker pit that day at mgm. Literally someone comes running and they're like you'll never believe this. This elderly couple just hit the jackpot on this machine. I'm like, literally, that it hadn't hit in a decade hadn't hit in a decade. 

38:27
And there's the day I played it. An elderly couple from rhode island won 1.1 million and the machine this was since been retired. But I'll never forget that day. I'm like that's just such a classic. So you know what I did. I went and played more slots that day and lost more money. Lost more money you shouldn't we shouldn't laugh. 

38:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But like no, I want that one slot though, because like it's just such an easy thing to read. You go up and even just like show the jackpot at the top. It doesn't have to be a big jackpot, yeah, could even be. Like what, literally actually? How about even this? Forget what I said about the risk amount. Make it literally one dollar a spin. It's a dollar a spin, easy enough. You get you so that that way someone could put in 20 and actually stay there for a minute or two. You do one dollar a spin and then the jackpot just rises every time you do it. 

39:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Every like hour it raises, that's I mean, I'm sure they could accommodate that. I'm sure if you reached out to the right casino, they would happily do that. 

39:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Build that honestly. Let's get a bed stamp branded slot machine. 

39:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We could definitely do it, yeah, but I mean, I, I love, I love, I love the casino, even though I barely go and um, but this, this trip will be very different for me. I, I, um, have you ever played or heard of or played sick bow before? Sick bow, uh, with the three dice that pop, okay, so, like my first experience that was at canadian casinos, at fallsview casino at niagara falls I've never played at the casino, okay, um, but it's, it was. It's like one of those big machines there where there's massive dice in the middle of the table and everybody sits around the outside of the table and it's all automated and it pops the dice and whatever and the combinations. I don't know what the hold on the game is, probably like 10 or something. 

40:09
You know, I had a great time. I went to the when I stayed at the bellagio for the first time I'm there and there was like a human actually like had like this contraption, like kind of like a coffee cup. They put the dice in and close it and just like shake it up in front and put it down. I might have spent like not exaggerating 16 hours playing sick bow at that table. Why it was amazing, built up a lot, lost a lot back, whatever the the rush of just seeing random numbers. I don't know what it is, man, I don't know what it is talk a lot about casino. 

40:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is, by the way, I should point out. 

40:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
These are the days where I also lost a lot of money betting on sports. Just as a losing better at all. Now I don't get the same rush from that kind of stuff, because we talk about this all the time. You know when people are like oh yeah, you know you're betting for entertainment. Well, it's not really entertaining when you just constantly lose. You need you need the wins in order to make it entertaining. 

41:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But now I would say like straight up is like don't bet in the casino unless you want to just bet for fun, and you're okay with losing and that's also fine. You know what I mean. Like if you have 100 million bucks and you're like some big wig guy and you, you, you're like, yeah, I'd like to gamble, I want to put a million bucks on this. Like, okay, do it, let's get it's fun. You know what I mean. It is what it is. It's the equivalent of you know some, for some people that's the equivalent of betting 10 bucks. So it's all good, just don't go into the. You have to lose, because that's like you're getting in a bad spot for nothing. So, yeah, don't play casino unless you're expecting to lose. You want to play sports might have a shot at winning probably do, but also still don't bet beyond your means and we're talking about land-based casinos right now. 

41:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Even worse would be an online casino where it just things happen so much quicker as well. So those are definitely dangerous. Yeah, I mean casino betting. You know, when people say Vegas wasn't built overnight, that's why they say it, you know it's. It's just very difficult to win. But I'm looking forward to the trip. I'm looking forward to about the 45 minutes I'm going to spend the casino games, my time at the spa, seeing some shows, going to the piano bar at new york new york times square, new york, new york, hidden gem on the strip. What a time putting in those requests to the piano guys. You know, piano man, we do, we do like. 

42:33 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know, like some higher love stuff like that, you know how much do you think the guy like hates it when you're sitting there? 

42:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's the piano guy like can you play piano, man, they actually probably, honestly, I I've tried to calculate how much those guys make in a night. They make an absolute killing. It is. There's four rotating piano guys. Okay, they all there's hourly and they switch spots and whatever. They know all the songs, everything you can't. If you request something, they will play it. 

43:03
Now, these guys are very good musicians. They have iPads in front of them. They can quickly pull up tabs for some stuff, know what the chords are, put a song together, even if they like, as long as they've heard it before, they could put it together. But it's $20 to make a request for a song. But not, you know, it's $20 to make a request for a song. It's $20, but if you want your song elevated to the top of the list, like, you're going to go drop a 50 or 100 with your song request, then they're going to play the next song, right? 

43:31
These guys are raking in dough. Man. What's the average per night? You think? Oh, I'm going to really try to hone in when I'm there this week and then give an estimate and give you an estimate, but it's enough. Where they have to like, walk out with every hour, they take the money that they've collected and they walk with security somewhere to store it, and they come back like it's enough that they're making enough in an hour that it's filling up a guitar case, it's um, and yeah, I mean, and those guys love what at least it looks, they give the appearance that they love what they do, even though it's been the same piano players probably for the last 10 years every single time I'm there. But I guess, like you see a lot of debauchery when you have a job like that, like who are the people in that bar? They're like people that are. You know, they've they've had a few drinks. Play, play rob's clip. They're looking to have a, they're looking to have a good time and, uh, and that's it. 

44:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so all right, I believe we do have some tweets that trigger us, tweets that trigger me. Um, as always, is it tweets that trigger us or me? On the hashtag, we check them both. I think we do check both, I check both every week. 

44:43
If you find a sports betting tweet on twitter or anywhere else that absolutely triggers you, just hashtag tweets that trigger me, respond back to it and or tag, bet, stamp or circles off and we'll make sure we get your tweet up here next. Well, I don't want to guarantee it, so I will say my guarantee it and I'll bet, stamp or circles off and we'll make sure we get your tweet up here next well, I don't want to guarantee it, so I will say my guarantee it and I'll tell you why we'll guarantee it. 

45:04
If it's one that doesn't really that triggers somebody, okay, we'll guarantee it. If it's a serious submission, obviously if it's, if it's a serious submission and it triggered somebody. But it doesn't trigger us, we can explain why okay, fair enough that's a better way. 

45:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We're not going to put anything up there that's a good way to do serious submission. 

45:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even if it doesn't trigger us, we'll put it up, because sometimes people tag me and it doesn't. 

45:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It doesn't have this, it doesn't resonate with me personally the same way that it might have with that person and I have been ignoring those. But there was a bunch of submissions this week and a lot that I had already seen, and so, anyways, let's, let's get to it I don't know what we're yelling about. 

45:41 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I've never seen you mad. I get peeved. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? It's only game. 

45:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why you have to be mad I still love that clip every time. Why you have to be mad. It's a minus of 37 degrees winter months. Uh, okay, let's start here. This one was a dm to me specifically. I know, definitely not a dm. Oh, someone dm. 

46:04
Someone dm'd me yeah, I'm out to lunch go ahead, yeah, yeah, at corona pics who, by the way, corona pics is one of the ogs of twitter, gambling twitter. This guy has been around literally since like 2010 on gambling twitter. I have zero issues with this guy, zero it's been through a lot with the. 

46:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
With the recent pandemic you had to specify his name ink. 

46:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You had this name well before the pandemic yeah, I didn't even think of that, but anyways, let's get to it. Uh, at corona picks. I feel the concept of clv is disproven at this point. I don't see it posted around too much these days and that's a great thing. Getting the best line or beating the market is advantageous, but it doesn't mean you're an auto long-term winner. I feel like we can now move on. So anyone who tries to disprove the concept of CLV or just says like no one's posting about it anymore might not be a thing. 

47:01
Learn about error metrics, learn about log loss, learn about anything really learn. First of all, learn about how markets work for one. But the second thing is it is so easy to prove the value of closing line value. All you have to do is literally take the opening line at any sports book and the closing line at any sports book for any specific sport. Run the log loss or any error metric of the opening line and run it in the closing line and you will see how much more efficient the market is at close. 

47:34
This is not a debate Like it's not even up for debate, and yes, I think there a lot of what happens in the space now is people will get like really good clv on one game it'll lose, and then they'll. Here's the clv bonfire, and so on and so forth. This doesn't mean you're going to win every single bet because you beat the closing line. All this means is, in the long run you're going to be a winner and yes, you will be an auto long-term winner over a long period of time if you're consistently beating the close. Literally. Talk to every single professional sports better, I don't want to say every single one. The vast majority of them put a lot of stock in the closing line value. Are there going to be points where maybe the closing line is not the truest indicator of market? Sure, that's going to happen here and and there. There's going to be always exceptions to the rule. But just because people aren't posting about it does not mean that it's been disproven. Don't know what else to say I agree. 

48:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even have anything to add there, it's as well said, I agree, 100 like it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if you lose one bet or like one single thing, like it's still, it matters. 

48:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like clv matters, so much it's been proven already, but also like why would getting the best line or beating the market be advantageous if it's not an indication of being a long-term winner? 

48:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like I'm trying to piece together what the advantage is of beating the close maybe what he's saying is like it doesn't make you an auto long-term winner, but like if every one of your bets has closing line value by enough to overcome the vig didn't makes you an auto long-term winner, exactly, isn't this? Not, if you also like I guess yes, doesn't make an auto long-term winner in general as a better, but on those bets it does. 

49:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will actually you made a great point here. It's actually something we don't actually pretty much never talk about and I never see talked about good opportunity for education here. You have to beat the closing line by enough to overcome the vig. People forget that right. So people beat a closing line and it moves from like minus 110 to minus 112 and they're like oh, I beat the close again. I'm beating the close on 80 of my bets and I can't win or whatever. Well, you have to be depends on on the margins that you're betting into. Like. You really have to understand that and obviously the more closing line value you have in the long run, the better indication it's going to be of you being a winner. But there is a breakeven threshold. You can't just beat every line by one cent and think that in the long run that's just going to automatically turn you into a winner and I do think that that gets lost in the shuffle. A lot on the closing line value debate nowadays I agree, I agree, okay, next up all right. 

50:06
Uh, bet player props. This is a thread. Um, I deleted alfred and perez so that no one takes them on fan duel. Now I'll still count them on the sheet. So he's saying that, um, he deleted a couple plays. I'll get into why. I was unaware a plate, a ph pinch hit appearance counted. That's definitely gross. If that's the rule, I'm sorry. I'm too used to the rules offshore. I've never heard of that insanity. So he deleted a couple plays from his tracking because he didn't understand the rules, didn't want other people to bet them. Uh, he then responds to that they, they need to change that rule. That's a legitimate scam. Then he responds to that same tweet from himself. I expressed my outrage to them. That being FanDuel over chat, I don't know if it will amount to anything. 

50:49
Draftkings PropBuilder. Every other book I've ever used for the home run market or any hitting market is must start. So here's what I'm going to say about this, and we've talked about this on this platform before you cannot bet without knowing the rules of what you're betting on. It's plain and simple. Now, in this case, he learned the lesson the hard way, figured it out Rather than figuring out how to exploit these rules in your favor. He's actually alerting them to the fact that they have something different with their specific sports book, which is, honestly, one of the dumbest things you could possibly do. Like if you find a sports book that is grading things or has rules that are completely, entirely different from another sports book, yet they are offering the same prices. One of those two is going to be an edge in some capacity. So by now going and alerting them to this book, to this rule, you are, in essence, you killing what could be a major edge, or possibly killing what could be a major edge. 

51:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Again, yeah, complete. It's more just like the rules thing, like you can't like we've all done it before but you can't complain after the fact if the rules were stated right. It's like it's not. It's easy to tell and I'm like laughing. Now back to this like slot machine thing I was saying. But it's like figure out the machine, don't be I lose, I lost my money and like I don't even know what's going on. Like figure out the figure out the machine first if you want to actually play it seriously. So same deal here. Like it is what it is. He's saying he's used to the offshore, so he was like assuming a specific thing, exactly. But, um, yeah, you gotta, you gotta make sure you check that and you know, definitely don't have them change their grading, just like, don't bet there listen at the end of the or bet it the other way. 

52:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's two things here, in my opinion. Either you read the rule every sportsbook rules before you bet there. A lot of people won't do that. Me and johnny have talked about this before. It's something that we personally do because there are edges to be found in sportsbook rules. All these sportsbooks treat things differently. They grade things differently. There are sports books that will auto grade wins, for example, when a team goes up, you know three goals in hockey or three touchdowns in football and maybe you're going to want to play certain bets there to take advantage of that, so on and so forth. But if you're not going to do that and you're not going to go through the effort of doing that, don't complain about making bets at that book and then them grading them in a certain way that is specifically stated in their house rules. That's all that. That's it like. There you have you. You can't have it both ways, essentially, okay, up next. Steve fezik. Oh, it's a good one at fezik sports. I will say I'm gonna. 

53:27
I just want to talk Fezzik really quickly before we get into this. I think he gets like a really bad rap in the gambling Twitter community because he is a tout and works for like a shady tout site. I've always got like. He does know a lot about football that I don't think people give him credit for, because he does do tweets like this Quotes, exposing your gambling expert in quotations as a fake. 

53:53
Number one I never bet parlays. Number two I don't bet live. Number three I don't bet first five or first half. Number four I never lay more than minus 160. Number five it's hard to win. Number six nfl is hard to sport to win. Number seven I don't bet season wins. It ties up dollars. 

54:15
Number eight most bookmakers are sharp okay, some of these are true. Like if someone ever said to me I never lay more than minus 160, it's a matter of personal preference for them, fine, but I would immediately look at that person and be like there's a very decent chance this person doesn't know what they're doing. Someone says I'd never bet parlays because all parlays are a sucker bet. Okay, there's a decent chance that this person doesn't know what they're doing. But there's a few on this list that are just personal preferences. 

54:51
Like I don't bet live because I have other things to do and most of my edges are pre-game and I don't like the fact that it like the pain of betting live and like trying to get a number that I think is a good number and then having it move on me is just not worth my time. Does that disqualify me as being an expert? Because my personal preference some of these are preferences I don't bet first five or first half. Neither do I don't bet first five or first half. I don't bet first period lines in hockey. Am I just disqualified as an expert because that's not the type of bet that I prefer? 

55:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like I don't really understand yeah, and then some of these are just subjective, like it's hard to win, yeah but for a lot of people it is hard to win I would also say it is like it is hard to win, in the sense that the industry is built on people losing money and most people do lose. 

55:39
So it's definitely not easy to win. For some people it is, and you can win, certainly, and like in a sense it is easy to win don't get me wrong. But but to go ahead and be like if someone says it's hard to win, then they're just like a, not an expert is obviously subjective, it's not true. 

55:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course I mean if someone said to me NFL is hard as sport to win. Personally I don't believe that to be the case, but I don't think that it's illogical either. 

56:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like there's different ways to beat every sport. So like, what are you saying? Like is, is nfl, like what's the hardest thing? That, like nfl season win totals are not that hard to to beat, right. So like, if someone says nfl's hardest sport to beat, I can't be like no, no, no, dude, I had a, I had a colts division future at this percentage, like you can't. Just, you know, I mean, that doesn't count. Or does it count? 

56:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I object, it's I don't bet season wins ties up dollars. I mean, I think that's a very legitimate reason to not bet season wins. Like, if you're only betting on credit, for example, why are you going to tie up all your credit on season wins? 

56:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I literally never bet season wins, and I'm so gung-ho on this that it's not a good bet. 

56:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I think you've just been exposed as a fake. I'm a fake, I'm well. Well, I'm not an expert anyways, but I'm definitely. Yeah, it's just the weirdest, most random list that I think. I don't know where this I don't know if it was this last one. 

56:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Most bookmakers are sharp, like yeah, okay, yeah, I guess if someone said most bookmakers are sharp, would I then say you're, they're a fraud well, listen, I think it's pretty when you think about it. 

57:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, most bookmakers are copying from other books. If we're being real, the vast majority of them are copying in some capacity from a sharper book I think that's why they don't even they don't really copy from a sharper book. 

57:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They have a trading team. Their trading team is a is a specific company that manages the trading for them for a lot of the books. Right, and then those trading teams set odds. They get odds from many different sources, one of which is by looking at other books correct, but the reality is most like all bookmakers are making money. 

57:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, there's, there's not a sports book that's reporting earnings like forget about the marketing yeah, and like ngr yeah, ngr net gaming revenue their players. 

57:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, without marketing spend and stuff like that that's the name of the game. That's what they're going for so I mean, when they have players on the site, just those players on the site, they obviously are operating at a net profit within those players that's sort of the definition of being sharp, like you can't just hire anyone to do that. You know what I'm saying I guess not, but whatever, anyways it's just the most random list. 

58:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't really I I don't really understand why all this. I guess a lot of these are personal preferences I agree with the uh, I agree with the. 

58:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Never lay more than minus 160. Yes, other than that, because even if someone said like I never bet parlays, that wouldn't expose them as a fake. You just maybe just don't bet parlays, that's fine. A lot of people who don't bet parlays agreed. You could. You also could not. And you also could bet live. 

58:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You also could not I do fair enough, I move on this is a funny one. 

58:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I like this one all right. 

58:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is from Ducky At Ducky underscore bets. What was the name of the guy we had last? Was it Big Dick's Picks? I think that was the last tweet that triggered. All right at Ducky underscore bets. Please be very, very careful betting on game one of NBA playoff series. Game ones are very volatile as you don't know what the game plans will be and there are usually surprises. Only bet dogs. If you have to bet something, you'll make your dollars. Game two to six. Be patient. 

59:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hashtag ducky cares so he's saying that? He's saying that the game one is volatile. 

59:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you don't know what the game plan is, so only bet the underdog yes, and also that you're going to make all your dollars in the series from games two to six. 

59:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know why not game seven okay, if it was very volatile and you didn't know what was going to happen, then, yes, you would bet the underdog. Of course, however, you don't know. That's not very volatile, it's just the same. 

59:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the same limit as the second game I completely agree and and in general, like okay, if you again betting markets, right the way the betting market works. Yes, you're playing, you're, you're placing your bet with the sports book, that's what's happening, but you are betting, in essence, against other bettors as well who are shaping the market. So if you have a better, better handle of what's going to happen in game one of an nba playoff series, let's say you have a better handle of what's going to happen in game one of an NBA playoff series, let's say you have a huge edge in projecting player minutes. You know what rotations are going to look like and you're better at doing that than other people who are betting into the market. You have a massive edge in game one. It would be your biggest edge of the entire series because then, from game two onwards, that information is available. People will react to it. 

01:00:33
So if you're very good at modeling player minutes, for an example, that would be a huge edge, huge. I don't know why you wouldn't bet the game if that's something that you excel at. I don't know why you think the dollars are only going to be made mid-series. I don't know what's different about game one and seven, but just in general, stuff like this advice like this if I had the sound of somebody throwing garbage into a garbage can, which we have to get on this soundboard, that's exactly what I would play, right now Ducky cares, All right up next. 

01:01:09
There's two. Right, this is the last one, and then there's another one. Okay, the next two are going to be a package deal, because they insinuate the same thing. So we have NBA player props at winning underscore props. I'm not an NBA is rigged guy, but Duncan Robinson playing six minutes for absolutely no reason Well, it seems like half the planet bet his over. Definitely fishy that and quite a few half point misses. Halt the streak. He's referring to the winning streak he was on. He went 15 and 17 for minus 4.21 units on this day because he just bet a bunch of Duncan Robinson overs. 

01:01:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, points, points rebounds, points, assists, points, rebounds, assists, all the combinations. And he didn't do too well. Duncan robinson overs yeah, points, points rebounds, points, assist, points, rebounds, assist, all all the combinations. And um, he didn't. He didn't do too well. I seems like he got two rebounds only yeah, he played only six minutes. 

01:01:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What do you expect, for it is very fishy, could have to plan it, bet is over, right and then go to the next one. 

01:02:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Go to the next one this is from our good friend, our good friend bangers who quote sharky waters'll have to have him on the pod Sharky if you're listening. 

01:02:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sharks and Sports, april 26th, jimmy Butler sitting out of a clinching playoff game three hours before tip is purely corrupt and outrageous. Someone responds and there was something or there was someone that knew something. This line had dropped to minus six out of nowhere, like 90 minutes ago, and then Butler ruled out a few minutes ago Shady shit, to which Sharkey responds this is effectively insider knowledge. To get this plus six and a half, no joke. Any sharp who took Atlanta at such a high financial clip to actually move the line from minus seven and a half to minus six and a half versus 80 of the entire betting market arguably was privy to information that would make this a criminal behavior. So we got a couple. There's so much in here. There's so much going on here, what I'll tell you what. What really popped to me, okay, when he referenced that the line moved a point versus 80 percent of the entire betting market? 

01:03:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
but it didn't even move it based on the volume, it just moved it based on the injury, of course, but he was already also questionable. 

01:03:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know there was no there. There was like someone could have easily been taking a stance of like we don't think butler's gonna play and we're going to get out ahead of this news. 

01:03:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can, they also could have known that he wasn't going to play, but either way that it doesn't matter that 80% like they didn't have to bang it for such a high financial high financial clip. 

01:03:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I wish we had a video of of him quoting this stuff, cause he's he's really good, this guy. This guy is a good salesman. But first of all again we talked about this before who cares what 80 of the entire betting market is betting on like? Do you think that's gonna stop me? Do you think that's like, is that actually like something that, first of all, is scary to anyone, but on top of that, like it's completely meaningless? But this is a market. 

01:04:11
There's information accessible in any market. First of all, it doesn't prove anything in terms of someone could have known, absolutely easily. Could have known. I'll give personal examples, though, of how many times I project a goalie to start a backup goalie. Let's say, 75 chance that he's going to start. We'll get out ahead of market and take a risk on betting it, because why am I going to start? We'll get out ahead of market and take a risk on betting it because why am I going to wait for that information to come out and then have to be able to get down in five seconds? So that could easily happen. We don't think butler is going to play or somebody gets a call up your guy has no idea what he's no idea what happened here. 

01:04:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's really made this. Look how long that paragraph is of typing and it's also only a one point move in the nba. That's literally nothing, especially six and a half to seven and a half. Yes, that's nothing compared to like the moves is like you literally have had a team open as a nine point favorite and it closes a two point dog this year. 

01:05:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is literally nothing well, I mean someone laid a high financial clip on this, though what even is that such a high financial clip. It was a big bomb bang. It actually was a big bomb banger. Um so the sharky waters nation. 

01:05:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you're listening out there, this guy's videos are hilarious, by the way he he sees every, he does his, every video. He goes on like his um turns his camera, records his face, just gives out pics and stuff like that, and then at the end he goes sharky waters nation and then he goes like oh shit, I forgot his clip now. But he's like what's the tagline? He's like bet or get out of the water, it's something like that. I forget what it is, but it's something like that. We gotta actually play it now. But it's such a good tagline but I guess not that good. Except we forgot it and I'm just gonna remember it. 

01:05:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He also puts like crazy color filters on every video that he puts out. I just started to notice Like it's just like every color that's in there. He just puts crazy filters in. 

01:05:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm pretty sure this guy has more followers than I do on Twitter, of course, which is actually depressing, like I'm almost certain, I looked it up one time Sharky Waters Nation he has a hundred more followers than I do. Please, if you don't follow me on twitter at rob pazola and you're listening to this or watching this, please follow me on twitter. I cannot live knowing this information. He has less than 100 followers, more than me, but it's extremely depressing you know what just happened, rob? 

01:06:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
are you saying that so many people? No, they unfollowed you and no followed him what have I done? 

01:06:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what have I done? This one rattles me. The one before he says ride the wave or get out of the water. 

01:06:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He says ride the wave or get out of the water yeah, it's not bad, it's a. 

01:06:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, if you're gonna go with the shark thing, you could do all sorts of stuff like don't be the chum, you know stuff like that. Whatever this podcast episode so bad I would imagine so there's thanks everyone for still listening. 

01:07:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
we, um, yeah, we're gonna have a good guest next week, so no one you know. Well, it's subjective depending on. 

01:07:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's subjective. We don't even know who next week is going to be yet. But I also want to say the tweet before this as well, like the people who think how Duncan Robinson playing six minutes for no, absolutely no reason? Well, it seems like half the planet bet is over. What do you think the liability for an individual sportsbook was on duncan robinson overs? 

01:07:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like honestly he's not even. Duncan robinson doesn't even start every game but. 

01:07:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But this is what my point. Like the people who think, oh, all I saw on twitter was everybody betting dun Robinson over. Do you know what NBA players make? Do people understand the money that these people make? Do you know what it would cost for Duncan Robinson or for a coach to not play players during the game? Like what you would have to pay? 

01:08:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
these people? Duncan Robinson's not a starter, which means he can only bet his props on a handful of books anyways. 

01:08:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But the whole the fix is in stuff. Listen, I'm I've. I've tweeted stuff like that before. People need to know that it's 100 a joke. I'm trying to get people fired up. This stuff, though, like they actually think that games are fixed because everyone bet a prop over. The liability on these props is nothing. The sportsbook doesn't even care. They literally do not even care. The trader would have no idea what they took on this prop because it is inconsequential to what is actually going to happen. So no, when you lose your prop bet or a player plays substantially more or less than you thought they were going to play, it's probably not because their head coach is in on some sort of massive scam. 

01:09:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but he says at the beginning I'm not an NBA is rigged guy. 

01:09:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But there's something fishy that and quite a few half point misses. Yeah, I mean I, I don't know, all right oh, by the way, I have another. No, I think that's it for today is that it. 

01:09:16
Okay, that was tweets that trigger us. Can I throw one more out there? This is not a actually a tweet, but I've been noticing a lot lately because more people are betting props. Way more people are betting props. If you bet something like over one and a half or over two and a half or even over a half, which I've seen before. Like, say, you bet someone over one and a half three pointers and they get one three pointer, you can't say you lost by the hook. Like you. You can't, you just cannot do that. It is like the most common. It happens. So much now on these low like player over two and a half assists got to assist lost by the hook matthew's over over three and a half shots on goal lost by the hook. 

01:10:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Three shots, like technically. Yes, there's only like a variety of like, so for three pointers, pointers you can get like zero, one, two, three or four or Steph. 

01:10:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Curry territory right. 

01:10:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, if you're a guy who has a total of one and a half, you can maybe get zero to five. So you didn't really lose by the hook, you only like it's so likely that you get one. Yeah, it's the next most likely outcome after maybe they're probably over one and a half minus 150. You know what I mean. Like the most likely is two and then one and then three. It's like so simple. 

01:10:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You notice how people always talk about how they lost by a hook, but they never talk about when they won by the hook. Do you ever, you, ever, you can? When was the last time you saw someone say one by the hook? 

01:10:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I actually don't even think that exists. Never searched on Twitter, has never been. 

01:10:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's never been tweeted yeah, because people want you to know that they've had close losses and they never want you to know when they had a close win. It's just human nature. But yeah, listen, technically, yes, you did lose by the hook. If you bet over a half goal in the nhl and the guy didn't score a goal, technically, yes, you lost by the hook. Should you ever say that you lost by the hook? Absolutely not. Please don't ever do that. That's all I can say. That's not. It is a tweet that triggered me, but it's a tweet from probably two dozen people I've seen in the last week more of an indicator of who I follow and I should really examine that. But for those out there, please do follow me on Twitter. It's very important to me. 

01:11:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, everybody, we are signing off here today. We'll be back next week, um, and with a great guest, and if we can't book anyone, it'll just be Rob and I again, you know what? 

01:11:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm flying the red eye home on Tuesday night, so I'm going to be like on no sleep for Wednesday. We'll do the show, because we record this on Wednesday. Oh, secrets out. We record on Wednesday for a Thursday show. But what's this guy saying? There's so many people who think we do this like live, and I'm trying to. Anyways, I don't want to get into it, all right. All right, by the time that we speak next time Raul will be back from Vegas. 

01:12:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I speak. Next time Rob will be back from Vegas. I have some good Vegas stories. Leafs will be in the second round, leafs in six, leafs in six or in seven, I don't care, just get to the second round. Finally, signing off here. 

01:12:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Will Duncan Robinson be getting more minutes? 

01:12:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
though Duncan Robinson, so that tweets from before. 

01:12:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's a sniper. 

01:12:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He yesterday. Anyways, as long as philly's winning, he's not playing. Um, we are signing off everyone. Please like, subscribe. We have a lot of ratings now. You guys are really coming through for us on spotify and apple podcast five stars, as always. Like and subscribe. And as always, as we say on this podcast, ride the wave or get out of the water, baby. See you guys next week.