00:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off on the hammer betting network. Episode number 70. You get anyone from this. 

00:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, I'm all pro right guard zach martin okay I, I was actually struggling, couldn't think of any on my own. Had to hit up the old google search. Found one notable one for hockey. Uh okay, I, I don't he's not even notable. 

00:30 - Zack Phillips (Other)
What am I? 

00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
saying louis deming on the penguins. 

00:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I have a. I have two others for the best number 70. But we mentioned it on last uh, the last episode that dennis rodman couldn't wear 69. He wore number 70 with the mavs because he couldn't wear 69, which I think that. So that that's uh hockey. Braden holpe wore number 70. Yeah, was he 70 set? When he was at the washington capitals for many years he wore number 70. I'd say he's a little bit more notable than louis de ming. I would say a little bit Louis Domingue currently actively wears 70. 

01:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's true. 

01:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Opie wears a different number with Vancouver. I don't know what it is. It's a. It's it has, I don't know, it's not 70. 

01:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, he's 49. Okay, anyways, there's about a million. 

01:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's tons of like O-linemen though. 

01:25 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You could go Go through history yet For sure there's been a lot, johnny. There's way more people than In the NHL. Go find them. 

01:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't Find any good players. 

01:30 - Zack Phillips (Other)
First Literally Easy, better Joe Morrow, troy Stetcher. 

01:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Joe Morrow, oscar Sundquist. Joe, no, no, no, no, oscar Sundquist, there's no way. Okay. 

01:41 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Tim Thomas. It says Tim Thomas. 

01:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If Tim Thomas wore 70, that's a miss. I don't recall him wearing 70. 

01:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Maybe this list is just. I don't know about that list. 

01:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tim Thomas was, I believe, number 30. Tim Thomas Tanner. 

01:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Pearson. 

01:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
We're getting into Hatcher Kornquist. 

01:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to. They're fine, they're recognizable players, joe. They're fine, they're recognizable players, joe. 

02:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Morrow is not better than Louis Domingue Joe Morrow. Who's the? 

02:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
guy that I'm thinking of. Who's the Morrow? Brendan Morrow, maybe? Ah yeah, brendan Morrow. That's a miss on my part, that's all good. 

02:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Joe Morrow played, probably. I would doubt he has many NHL games. No, no you know what. You know what? 

02:26 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He's got more games than I even thought he's got 162 games Tim Thomas originally wore number 70 With the Bruins Alright so Timmy Thomas we always forget about baseball players, but it's very you rarely see like 70s Episode 99, we gotta go Gretzky. 

02:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Then also the judge, the judge. 

02:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If he breaks it by then so by career war for baseball, Manuel Margot. 

02:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, Manny Margot. 

02:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Manny Margot is the uh the, the player who wore number 70. That has the highest career war in major league baseball. 

03:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's some real scrubs on this list, including former blue jay reese mcguire so getting into the episode, uh, today it's rob and I, only no guests. This week we are going to try to bring on other guests for uh. For next week we have a couple really good ones lined up. Um, so what we have for today is a timely nfl and, um, I guess we'll get into some NFL betting first. But the topic for today is buying points, selling points. Um, it comes up very often. Now you know, should you bet this number, this number, where are you going to go? So we're going to break down kind of the our, our views on that, how we would go about doing that, and then potentially some other tools we could look at in terms of getting that done. So, rob, first off, before we get into buying selling points, how's nfl season going three weeks in? 

03:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
uh stressful up and down. I had a terrible week two in a very good week three. Personally, um, yeah, I mean it's you take a step back. You do things differently, like I'm, I'm you. Everybody knows this by this point, if you've listened for a while. I'm mostly bet major market sides and totals in nfl I I sit at like 3 45 pm eastern time on my couch every sunday and I'm like why do I do this to myself? Like it feels like everything comes down to uh, there there are so few sweat free winners in the nfl and people are like, oh, you don't have to watch the games, you could just. 

04:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm like no, like come on there's like four, there's like three to four sweat free winners per week. 

04:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you had that one side out of all the games well, like 32, like I bet, I bet colts plus six last week against kansas city and we took some five and a half as well, but mostly bet the colts plus trap game. 

04:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So of course, anyone who doesn't, of course the betting public was all on kansas city. 

04:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You got to look at the reverse line movement. You know. Obviously that's how I made my decision in betting the game. However, like they won the game outright, I still didn't even feel like anywhere comfortable that they were going to cover six throughout the game. That's like the type of swings we're talking holds plus three and a half first half, worst loss of the season. That is like the most disgusting beat. I had some plus three and a half first half as well. 

05:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It doesn't like there's so many beats every week and it's like a cool thing to break down, but there's quite literally so many bad beats on a weekly basis that just go under the radar because, like, a mainstream media outlet didn't pick it up or no one even had that bet. But there's so many bad like when you're looking at player props, yardage and stuff like that end of game scenarios horrible beats, horrible like insane lucky winners, but even like full game and halftime stuff. Cole, it didn't get much coverage but Colts were plus three and a half for the first half. Ended up Kansas City got a touchdown. They were essentially a play away from Colts, like first half money line cashing in having no sweat. Kansas City gets a touchdown with about under a minute left and then decides to go for two. Now just puts the whole spread in jeopardy, end up converting the two-point conversion to Travis Kelsey. Anyone who ever watched NFL knows it wasn't a conversion. 

06:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So were you watching the broadcast live? Yeah, so was Tony Romo doing color for that game and he was losing his mind. He's like this is not, this is not. He's like they still watch this and they called it a two-point. It was obviously not good, but here's this and they called it a two-point. 

06:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It was obviously not good. That was also for the plus five and a half. Plus six was also a massive one because Kansas City had missed an extra point Exactly Now they just got back up 14 to 10 with that, when it would have been 12-10, which obviously for a closing line spread of around five would have been massive, given that Kansas City kicks an extra field goal at that point, and then they would actually be up five and the five could be a live number it was. 

06:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What's frustrating with the nfl in particular is their reluctance to change the calls on the field that are like not I guess what's the way to put like it's very obvious what that play was, but it was close, so they stick with the ruling on the field. 

07:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But it wasn't even close. He fumbled it also and his knee was down For any like. Now it's tough without the video. I don't know how we can even find the video. 

07:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe we'll find him. You can easily find it. Blew up on Twitter. Can't put it in. 

07:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Travis Kelsey two-point conversion, and that should come up on Twitter, what I normally do when I want to search a play. By the way, just for everyone here, go on Twitter. Best source for plays YouTube's a little tough to find. Go to Twitter, you hit in the search bar, be specific as to what someone would be tweeting so you don't want to be too professional, but even like Kelsey 2PC or Kelsey two-point conversion. Then scroll over to videos the videos but, and then there will be videos of kelsey two-point conversions mostly guys who are, you know, film filming their tvs and stuff. 

07:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a lot of that, yeah a lot of that. 

07:54
But if you want, if you ever need to see a play quick, that's how you get it done the most frustrating ones for me because they'll never they never show up in like the highlights or the box score are the dropped interceptions. Like I bet carolina, two weeks ago they lost to the giants. There was a play where daniel jones threw the ball directly into the hands of frankie luvu of the carolina panthers defense, who had a walk-in pick six, and he dropped the ball like that's um, the the swing on that one play where it's it's. I know he's a defender, I know he's a linebacker, but, like a professional player, just not being able to catch the ball essentially cost a bet. 

08:36
Week one eagles and lions I I think I talked about this um, or maybe posted to my twitter, but but the Eagles were killing the Lions and Jared Goff overthrew a ball over the middle of the field directly into the hands Now he had to reach down a little bit to catch it of Darius Slay Drops the ball. The Lions score a touchdown on that drive. They go on to cover the game. Those are the most frustrating aspects of the NFL. Now, technically, I will say complaining about it. 

09:07
There's probably a lot of those times where it worked in my favor yeah, you just don't know and I don't know or I'm, or I'm, like you know, selective memory, so I get it, but either way, those are the types of swings that are just like. The randomness of the sport is crazy for sure, for sure. 

09:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like with any, with anything. You're always going to be sweating at the end of the game. Like it, just it somehow comes down to it Right, like even if you have like James Harden, you know it's like. Or like you have like Kevin Durant on points and you're like. 

09:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

09:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, like you're always going to be sweating Like a free throw, right, you're just going to be there and you'll be like, alright, somehow, somehow at the end of the game you watch a full game and then you're like, all right, well, this is it. I need him to go one for two here. I've told you about that, right. 

09:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
The worst one. 

09:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I had, you needed a two for two. 

09:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Right, I needed two for two from James Harden. This was when I first started betting in university. This was when I had no idea what was going on. I threw down an eight-leg parlay this and this is when these I don't remember. Do you remember the Nike off-white Like Air Max 90s when they came out? 

10:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah. 

10:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
When they were like the thing. So me and my buddy were like, if this parlay hits, we're both getting them Like there was. It was big enough. Payout Eight legged, I'm six for six. We're going. We're watching the Houston game. The eighth leg will finish after the Houston game, but it's like on pace to win. Harden needs to. Is two points away from hitting the over on the points that I had for him. He's got free throws with 10 seconds left in the game. Goes up to the line. Bangs the first one. 

10:38
I need him to hit the second one and like we're flying misses, the second one, and then obviously doesn't get the ball back. Eighth leg wins Harden points is the only one, and then obviously doesn't get the ball back. Eight flag wins hardened points is the only one that busts on the play like it dude. 

10:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It always comes down to that I don't know, every better has one of those stories though but but it literally all like we, we, we forget about all the things. 

10:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Right, you quite obviously it doesn't always come down to last free throw, but in your mind, just the fallacy of this thing, like it seems like every bet you're sweating is coming down. The last thing you're like you have a quarterback over on completions. You're like well, this is it last drive, I need two completions. It's like yeah, it's just it's always coming right down to that, that number. But uh yeah, nfl is a lot of fun in in terms of um, of props for nfl. 

11:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Have you seen, I don't look at props very. The only time I look at props is when I'm doing prime time on uh sunday and monday nights, with uh eric eager and fabian somer leading into the football games. But have you noticed that, like um, any of the yardage totals or anything are are down this year relative to previous years. Are they the same? Because the the game totals are like there's no scoring right. The median nfl score this year has been 40 points. Yeah, yardage totals are way down. 

11:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, because I'm looking through that today and I was wondering but it typically has always happened in the first couple weeks of nfl season. 

11:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Got it makes sense, like for me. I'm trying to figure out why scoring is down in the nfl, because it's obviously tough to do the game's not being called all too differently. People are like, oh, there's not enough elite quarterbacks anymore, but actually, though, like there isn't there isn't, but it was the same, like were there enough elite quarterbacks last year. 

12:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It just feels like there's a lot, always like a middle tier of qb that just went away now, like dac prescott, russell wilson, like those guys, like I just felt like there was always a a middle tier, like even you know he had like cam newton and like drew breeze and matt ryan and you know all those guys were like okay it's the guys. 

12:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who's not the guy, but they're a guy yeah, yeah, like yeah I hear you matt ryan, well, even like derrick carr's junk this year and he wasn't like drunk last year. It's that I. 

12:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I get what you're saying, yeah, like how is the best quarterback? That of that tier like carson wentz? 

12:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ryan pennant yeah, no, I know I get. I get it. Uh, maybe, maybe there's something to that. 

12:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Suma sent me like, uh, these guys, by the way, are so much better than the backups. Like jared goff is even a step ahead of, like all of those other quarterbacks and carson wentz. So it actually is crazy. Right now there's like at the top, it's so hot heavy, it's so top heavy the backup to jared goff is nate sudfeld. 

13:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you remember watching that guy play? Do? 

13:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
actually eagles, oh my god, sudfeld there's they put him in for that tank when he was tanking. 

13:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, he was in the in the final game of the year against washington. I think it was, oh yeah, honestly the biggest thing. But think back on how well that has set up the eagles. Like I listen, I mean it's only like whatever increase. 

13:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But the eagles, the lions, win games every year at the last game of the season. They win games and go from first overall, the third overall and then they just get, and then they're like, oh well, oh well, we didn't get our guy, like it's crazy the true fans know at the end of the year they're rooting against their team 100. 

13:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The the real true fans know when to root for and against their team. And these meaningless wins at the end of the season. They're not meaningless actually. They actually have an impact in future years because you've done yourself a disservice by winning those games. I see these people going nuts when their team kicks a game-winning field goal. I'm like why are you celebrating? I get it Like you're a Lions fan. 

14:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're a Browns fan. If you're like 0-15 and the next team has three wins, then you should be rooting for two wins. Right, but there's no lottery system in the NFL, so it's actually like weird why there's not. Or tanking. 

14:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah. 

14:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's no lottery system. If you know, like they go into the last week and the team knows, if I lose this game, I get the first overall pick. Yeah. 

14:30 - Zack Phillips (Other)
How do you win that game? Like? I don't know if you guys heard this story. Frankie Corrado was on Toronto Sports Radio and he was talking about it's obviously a different sport for hockey here, but like the players know about tanking and like know the ability to go out and get players. He was telling a story about when they were leading up to the matthews year and one day, coming down the stretch, one of the guys in the locker room they were looking at the standings and one of the other teams was getting close to them at the bottom of the standings and he said the guy says to him he's like oh, look, vancouver is catching up. He's like like what do you mean? We're in last place. And he's like nah, we got to get Matthews. Yeah, exactly, I mean that's that. 

15:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But for sure though I mean, like they know, this year's another good tank for the NHL, yeah, hard for Bedard. Yeah, the. 

15:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Blackhawks. 

15:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Is that the, or did you just point that yourself? 

15:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That yourself, that's I'm hard for bedard is pretty good well, yeah, he's gonna be well, I mean he should be, he should be really good. So we will see. Mcdavid was the ultimate tank, matthew's obviously a good one. They had the uh fail for nail yakupov didn't pan out. 

15:37
Um, all right, let's get into, um, our main topic for today buying and selling points. Um, I like this topic right now because it's very timely. In the NFL, and almost on a week-to-week basis, rob and I were getting questions about the value of the three, the value of the six. Where should we? Hey, would I be better off to bet this number or this number? And I think, generally speaking, anytime and this is 100% a general statement, but anytime you are moving and buying and selling points, generally speaking, nine out of 10 times it is going to be a bad move for you. 

16:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so if you have that Even higher than that. 

16:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would say Even higher than nine out of 10. 

16:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I think that's a conservative estimate. 

16:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So very likely, it's going to be a bad move for you. Now, in some scenarios it could be a good move. In some scenarios it could be a great move, and we're going to discuss some of those. But just off the rip, um, it would be a bad move, likely to do it. So if you're consistently finding that, like every time you're betting a team that's plus three, you're buying that up to three and a half um, and there's not a specific angle you found at the site where you're comparing stuff like that, uh, then it likely is a bad move. So, from there, I'll toss it off to rob. Uh, let's give your thoughts and we can go riff back and forth on this one yeah. 

16:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I tweeted something earlier this week about um, if, if the if people had just forgotten, like pretended that that feature didn't exist at their sports book the buy points feature they'd be much better off in the long run. Now, obviously there's some exceptions, but people will ask well, they don't understand why. Is it generally a bad idea to buy points? People tend to buy points for peace of mind. 

17:13
I would say they think that they're your biggest edges well, some people buy them on their biggest edges because, hey, if you're going to lay down, you're going to lay down a couple dimes on a game. You want to buy points, you know, make sure you get the you know the most points possible. But um, that's an inside joke for those some the real ogs of circles off. We'll get that one. But um, essentially you're paying for peace of mind and what the sportsbook is going to do is typically charge you more for that half point or that full point than what it's actually worth in in overtime. So you know you'll see that two and a half at your sports book and you'll be like ah, I know three is like key number in the nfl right, lots of games are going to land on on three. So what you're going to do is naturally be like I'm going to buy this point and pay a little bit extra. Well, the sports book knows exactly how many games're going to do is naturally be like I'm going to buy this point and pay a little bit extra. Well, the sports book knows exactly how many games are going to land on three over a long period of time. So they are now charging you more than what that half point is actually worth. So that's what people have to understand. 

18:17
Yes, there's going to be times where it helps you. You're going to be like, oh you know, this is great. I was, you know, this is great. I was, you know, would have lost this bet and I ended up pushing because I actually bought this half point. It doesn't matter, it's sort of a math equation in the long run, right. So understand that. Sportsbooks are not dumb. There's a reason sportsbooks make money over long periods of time. One of the reasons is people just don't understand simple concepts. With betting, and with buying points in specific, you are very infrequently able to buy a point for what is a fair price is what it comes down to. Now, you did mention there's exceptions and we can talk about those. 

19:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but before, before we do sorry, I was just pulling something up here uh, so you look at, we look at like hey, when you're betting, we always say like line shop, so you can save on the hold, and stuff like that. But when you look at it from a sports book perspective, they're running a business. So if they were to just book everyone's action at minus one 10, get equal action on the game, then what's going to happen is, at the end of the day, they are going to take a hundred dollars on one side, a hundred on the other side. Each person is going to lay minus one, 10. The game's going to end. They're going to pay out one guy and they're going to collect from another guy and the 10. The game's gonna end. They're gonna pay out one guy and they're gonna collect from another guy and the collection is gonna be 110. The payout's gonna be 100. They made 10 on their 200 bet, which, um, in this scenario, when you're looking at, they're making like a couple percent, right, and if this were to be the regular model and everyone just bet at uh two percent, like everyone just bet at minus 110, sportsbooks would, in theory, never make more uh than a few percent in terms of hold, yep, but when we look at some of the numbers right now so that's what I was just pulling up was what was the whole percentage? I pulled up new jersey for um, you know, earlier this year, 2022, it looked like sportsbooks held in new jersey on sports specifically, all encompassing 7.4% hold percentage, which is crazy, because how could they hold 7.4% if people are just betting minus 110? And the reason is all of this alternative stuff that you bet, that people bet in, has a higher hold percentage and that is how they get these numbers up. So things like parlays, same game, parlays, futures bets obviously higher hold. 

20:39
But one thing that really flies under the radar is the buying and selling of points. When you put something to like, hey, I now have the three and a half, but I paid minus 135. That is something where your edge is now, you know, minus five, six, 7%, and it's getting these sports book hold numbers up. So hopefully that's helpful for some people. But I just wanted more explaining like a business sense of these guys. If you didn't bet, any of these other markets would quite literally be earning only a few percent a year, but the reality is the numbers are never like no sports book is earning 1.5 percent, 2.2 percent hold. They're all earning five plus and when you look at parlays, parlays might be earning 20. So that is kind of how you can even just look and be like what are the bets? That are stupid bets, yes. What does the book earn the most on teasers? 

21:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
those are the ones you don't want to be betting like we said never, never seen a teaser that I didn't think was a guaranteed lock before I put it, I've never seen a 14 point teaser that I didn't think was a guaranteed. Oh man why play 14 when you could play 17 or 21 point super teaser. 

21:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Those ones are, I mean so, uh, okay, sorry so you wanted to get into into something else there, but I think that was a that's a really good point to. To hit home on is like you can tell it's not like you don't have to listen to us and say, hey, well, why these guys think that the three and a half is not good. Like, consistently, year over year, sports books are earning double, triple, quadruple the amount on those type of bets. It's quite obviously a bad bet, you know 95, 99 of the time. So in the scenarios where it is a good bet, rob, let's hear yeah. 

22:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So just the last point on this people become obsessed with the key numbers and not the price, and both are are important. So people become obsessed with getting that three, getting that seven, and they ignore what they have to pay to get that all the time. And you're very often paying more than that point is worth, and that's what the concept is here. Sometimes you're much better off just taking plus six and a half, plus 100, than taking plus seven minus 130. That's an extreme example, but that's the case. Sure, you could lose the game by seven, but guess what? That point or that half point is not worth that. There are some scenarios that rarely exist nowadays um, I don't, we don't talk about like the, you know paperhead. Uh, we do. But there are some scenarios where buying points would be worth it, plain and simple, and in this case it's usually a sports book that will charge you the same amount to buy every single point. These do exist. They're less and less frequent. But there are some sports books that will say no matter what half point you buy, we're going to charge you 10 cents on that. In that case it's almost always worth it to buy from two and a half to three or from three negative three to minus two and a half, or so on and so forth. So you always have to look at what the actual charges for that half point period. And so, like you know, I never say never and I don't like to talk in like absolutes, because there's different ways to win at sports betting and so on and so forth, and I don't want to say just never buy points, but you have to be very aware of what the sports book is charging you for that half point. 

23:51
Now people might say well, how do I know? You know, how do I know how to compare a two and a half to a three in market? There's several ways you can do it. There's resources online. Personally, I think the easiest for a recreational better or for someone who doesn't know how to compare two different lines to see which one is better, I would say use the free tool on Unabated. Plain and simple. You go to unabatedcom, go to the calculator section at the top of the screen, click compare lines. All you have to do is type in two lines and compare them and easily can find out which one is better. So if you're going to consider buying a half point at any time, quite literally, all you have to do is put in what the original line is, what the line would be if you bought that half point with the price, and it will tell you which is the better line, and I think it's a very good tool. 

24:40
Uh, overall, um built by friends of ours obviously we've had captain jack on the program before, we're friends with rufus but plain and simple, very easy to use and just get into the habit of doing that whenever you're betting nfl. Most of the bets you make are not time sensitive anyways, unless you're reacting to player news, but most people out there are just betting whenever they have free time. It's a very valuable tool to use. If you just want to be spit what the best bet is in market, betstamp will do that for you Very simply. You don't have to type in anything. We'll give you the best price, we'll tell you where to go bet Plain and simple. If you're someone who's betting with one sportsbook would not recommend that. 

25:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But if you are doing that and you just want to compare two lines, use the compare lines calculator at unabated 100 and uh, in terms of comparing the lines, when we're saying this stuff, um, like for the most part and I've I've changed my stance on this we talked like a few weeks back like, hey, just bet the best price and whatever, like always compare the lines. But in my opinion, like you know, you don't need to go too deep on some of the things in the industry, like a lot of people get, you know, almost that galaxy brain like, oh, let me go, like do this. This is. This is one area of sports betting where if I was an up-and-comer and I was like looking to learn, I would not care. I literally, I quite literally would not ever even let this cross my brain in terms of something that I want to spend like time and effort researching on, in terms of like building out charts, going back through historicals. Simply put, I don't think anyone who right now who's coming up, is going to do like a good job at that or build anything that's accurate enough to actually make an impact. 

26:18
So this is one area where you should just leverage, like Rob said, either the unabated tools or just go look on the BetSamp screen and pick out the price. If you have to estimate it, just estimate it and then you know, take your pick at which one's better based on what you think. But in terms of like going back, charting it out and thinking you're going to find an edge on like the numbers here, in terms of like the different stuff between like the seven, the three or the one and the two, I don't necessarily think that like an up and comer is going to have a lot of success with that, and I do think there's a lot of other like low hanging fruit that I would spend my time on versus that. Now, if you're like an actuary, mathematician, mathematician and like different story yeah, different story. 

26:57
If you already have experience doing that and you're like, hey, I'm going to look at how nfl is changing this year and how I might be able to find the edge, maybe you can do something like that. But sheer, beginners, I want to start getting into more of the habit on, like me, giving out some real advice for beginners. Yes, you should, in theory, look into this, as you should, in theory, look into a hundred other things, but this is one right now where, like, if you're a beginner, forget about this, not not as important, bigger fish to fry agreed, there's, um, you know there's. 

27:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You like to talk about the concept of value all the time, and your time is valuable. You're very rarely going to find a scenario where buying points is worth it, probably not needing to compare lines every single time. Um, so I agree with you there. Um, I'll. I want to get into some. So I posted a tweet thread about this buying points. There were some criticisms of me for this. I do want to get into that. But I do want to remind people that this episode of circles off is sponsored by the power rank sports betting newsletter. Valuable, concise and entertaining. Dr ed fang makes these his three goals with each correspondence, which mostly cover the nfl and college football. Ed is a personal friend of ours. He's a data scientist whose work has informed our betting. Check out the newsletter at thepowerrankcom. 

28:16
So I post this twitter thread, get a bunch of responses like oh, you make sports betting like not fun, like sports betting is supposed to be fun, just like. Let us do what we want and we've talked about this before but wouldn't you have more fun if your bankroll could be larger over time rather than smaller? Would that not be something that Maybe I can't put myself into the shoes, where buying a half point is fun. But is that your? 

28:52
I've bought points in my life before I was a very square, terrible bettor. I used to buy points all kinds, pretty much with every bet I made at one point in time. I would never consider buying points to be fun. Like, who are these people? Who are these people that are like, oh, like, stop being like, you know, stick in the mud, have some fun? I don't understand that. I could never grasp that concept of like. Yeah, yeah, sports betting should be fun. You know what's fun? Winning at sports betting it's way more fun than betting or losing a bet and losing, you know, 120 bucks instead of 110 or 100 because you bought a half point. I don't understand that. 

29:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, you're 100% right. It's crazy when we keep looking at this stuff and we're like, yeah, it is what it is, but sportsbook numbers keep going up and up. People are losing more and more every single month and you know it's not an insanely difficult game to beat. So you know, I love the community that we have within this show because a lot of people listening here are people who I've seen have messages from now that have grown bankrolls, you know, tenfold, starting off as like hundred dollar bettors, up to a thousand now. Guys starting off with like 500 bucks, now 5 000, or guys there's been a bunch of people right now who have reached out, who have made like into the five figures, like 20, 25, 30 000 from sports betting. Um, you know, obviously a lot of that's on your own, it's not like from this podcast, but we've had like a bunch of people reach out and say like, hey, based on the principles you've like given out in this podcast, I've quite literally made $25,000 on this and like thank you so much and it's amazing to hear. So thanks everyone in the community. Obviously, let's keep growing it, um, one. One other cool thing to say is we do have a bet stamp discord and it's not as big as we'd like it to be. Right now it's just under 1,000 members but I would encourage everyone to join if you're interested in just like joining a community where you have other bettors who are like trying to not necessarily learn, but trying to win as much as possible and trying to find different learn, but trying to win as much as possible and trying to find different edges and cool things. There's a bunch of people posting in, whether it be like cool bets, fun bets, uh, new promos, things like that and uh, obviously, all across the states and canada, we, um we have different members from different regions posting different stuff. So if you want to join that, uh, best way to do it would be I mean, I guess we'll put the link in the YouTube description and here on the podcast description so you can click that directly from your phone and it'll send you an invite directly to Discord. 

31:29
For those of you who don't use Discord, it's essentially like a chat app where you can have multiple different channels and you know you can write in and build a community. So there's like a thousand members in there. You can mute the channels you don't want. Um, if you don't want to like hear about nba, you know, mute that channel. If you don't want to hear picks and you only want promos, mute all the channels. Turn notifications on for the promos. Gonna have some uh, you know, some good stuff going on in there and we're hoping to grow up moving forward. 

31:55
And then, last plug, unless, uh, unless you have anything else, is, uh, the hammer betting network going great so far in terms of the launch a lot of cool shows that we mentioned last week and there's one that we wanted to plug for listeners of this show that we feel might be, you know, a good amount of crossover our friend, kevin davis. He's hosting a new show. It's called 90 Degrees, so we'll link that as well in the show description. You can also find it on Apple and Spotify. It's an audio-only show right now, very similar style to Circles Off, and Kevin is going to be hosting a few different guests, some semi-pros, some pros in the sports betting space. 

32:38
The first episode was incredible and anyone who is interested in learning about sports betting will benefit from this episode. Uh, the episode was with uh, another friend of ours, fats. Uh, a guy who goes on Twitter by a real underscore. Fats, a legend in the betting game, um, and someone who has made a living at this for a long time. So check that episode out. I personally enjoyed it a lot. Oh yeah, and I know there's a lot more to come from Kevin and the 90 Degrees podcast, so that's one that we definitely would recommend. A lot of good crossover. If you like this show, you're going to love that show. 

33:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed, kevin is a very great personality, like he's just a great dude, so I've run into him at both of the bet bashes that Spanky put on. First one was in New Jersey. We didn't get to talk a whole lot, but we talked a little bit about the CFL. Actually, he's a CFL better from New Jersey, which is kind of weird, but he loves the CFL. To each their own. 

33:31
Bet bash two there was the bookie better breakfast and I was tabbed as one of the betters, so not the bookie, but yeah, I was one of the betters, but anyways, people that were there were bought a ticket to bet bash to was we're supposed to sit down at a table and then, like A couple you know a bookie and a better would sit down at that table as well and join them for breakfast and have a chat or whatever. Kevin intentionally waited for me to sit down at the table and then he joined my table so that we could chat, but we had a blast that morning. He has so many great stories Really good, good dude and I think that as a host he will be fantastic overall. So do check that out. I do think that that's going to be a really solid show. 

34:17
Um, we've covered mostly everything on buying points. The last thing I'm going to say, just going through the comments of anyone who's tweeted me about buying points, there's this one guy, um, who's basically saying that he's never lost a bet from buying a half point. Like I never you know one thing about buying points never lost a bet. 

34:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, he technically lost every bet. 

34:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, paying more juice, Exactly right, never lost a bet, but I've won or pushed many of them because I bought that half point. This is the most one-sided, illogical view I can think of, because every single bet that you lose when you buy a half point, you lose more. No, not every bet you lose. 

34:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
every bet you place, true, because you're risking more money that you could be risking on shorter odds. That has a higher payout. So when you're betting at any additional juice, you're not only risking the juice when you lose, you're risking it at all times, at any given juice. You're not only risking the juice when you lose, you're risking it at all times, at any given moment, because if you're betting minus 110, sure you're risking 110 for 100, but if you had minus 105, you could risk 110 for 104. So 0.6. So now you're at $4 more profit. So if you won your bet, you lost $4. If you lost your bet, you lost $10. 

35:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously, you're gonna feel like a hero if you buy a half point and you get a push out of it or you win a bet. Like you're gonna feel like a hero. I get it. It's you got to take a long-term view and to say that you've never lost a bet because of buying a half point. While technically that may be true, it's completely illogical and false and you should never convince yourself that that's a reason to pay extra money. Um, or you know, essentially, um, give the sportsbook an even larger edge than they already have by buying that half point. So that's it. 

36:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think we've covered that topic pretty well. How much time we got right now, 35 minutes, all right. One. One last thing. Uh, here some news just for us. Uh, you know, if you're tuning in just for uh sharp betting concepts or uh betting principles, you can sign off now, appreciate you joining. 

36:24
Uh. We love you. Appreciate you tuning in, rob and I uh later today. This is recording this on wednesday, wednesday morning, september 28th. We're on to Cincinnati. We're on to Cincinnati. We are on to Cincinnati. Rob and I, as well as Luke from Luke's Locks, also known as Lay With Luke, and one of our video producers, are actually heading over to Cincinnati and we're going to be catching Thursday night football live Bengals versus Dolphins, and we're going to be making some cool content, shooting some videos. We're going to shoot a live Luke's Locks. We're partnering with our friends over at Betfred, who sponsor Luke's show Luke's Locks, so we're excited about that, rob, you excited. 

37:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm pretty excited to go, I am. I haven't seen a live NFL football game in a long time. It has been a few years, obviously with the, but even even so, the problem with me, for, like when I was younger, I used to. Well, can I guess what you're gonna say. 

37:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sure are you gonna say that you just you don't want to miss a regular sunday, exactly, yeah, neither do I, man who wants to go to a sunday game and miss all the other games my friends are always going to like a couple bills games a year. 

37:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're like that's good on the bus in the morning, whatever. I'm like, yeah, I don't, I don't care, I want to go watch all the games at once. I don't want to watch one game. Primetime games a different story, uh. So thursday night football should be interesting. Um, hopefully we we see two a play and not. You know, he's got like 48 listed with like head back ankle I think he's gonna play yeah we'll see, but, uh, looking forward to that and, um, particularly the tailgate experience. 

37:56
I've done some prime time tailgates before now. I don't know what it's going to be like in cincinnati compared to buffalo and detroit and you know some other places I've been to which are pretty raucous crowds, but I hope it's, it's solid. Um, yeah, I'm just, I'm looking forward to, like, getting back to football stadium I, I am as well. 

38:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, so I, when I was younger as well, I used to hit a bills game a year and, uh, it was ultimately just. It's legitimately not enjoyable to go to a bills game in the cold, and I know a lot of people gonna be like oh no, no, I agree with you, yeah I get it. 

38:29
Obviously it's still a lot of fun and you, you sometimes got to suck it up and go to a snow game. But for me, here we live in Toronto it's very cold here. I play hockey outside. We'll play some shinny outdoors. 

38:41
It's not that I'm afraid of the cold, it's just to miss a full Sunday in December, drive out to Buffalo and then have to sit down at the game in a cold thing. Plus, a few years ago prior to uh, you know, the last couple years shut down, buffalo wasn't that good. They did have one year where they went to the playoffs, lost to deshaun watson and the texans, but prior to that, like they weren't that good, so you'd, you'd fly, you drive over to buffalo, sit down, freeze your ass off bills, get dusted by the patriots and you're just like all right, let's go get some wings and go home. Like it wasn't that enjoyable because you had to miss all the other games. So I would look every year and be like okay, where's the prime times that are in Buffalo? Some years you get none, some years you'd get one. This year, for example, there was one, which was this previous Monday nighter versus the Titans. 

39:29
But for us now it's like, okay, is that too early in the year? So you really need the perfect date to line up to actually go to a game. Right, because you can't go in December, but also week two, it's like all right, well, I'm still getting ready. I got all this work to do, like I don't know if I can go out on a Monday night, so ideally this is a perfect game for us, cincinnati obviously not too cold this time of year. Thursday night football don't have to miss the rest of the games. Not too far of a trek out. We are fired up to go and I will say I do want to eventually catch a denver broncos game in denver. I've always wanted to hit up uh, hit up the stadium there. Have you been to a bunch of stadiums? 

40:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
um, mostly more baseball than than football, more base. I. I've been to a lot of arenas, stadiums, whatever, but yeah, nfl stadiums, I don't know six six. 

40:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I went to uh. So I've been to buffalo bills game. Yeah, detroit lions were, uh, the ones that are close to canada for everyone listening here, uh. And then I did go to a new york jets versus giants game. At the time I think I don't know if they still share a stadium, but at the time they did yeah. I believe it was a Jets home game. So I've been to three stadiums. That's it. This will be the fourth in Cincinnati here. 

40:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've seen games in Buffalo, detroit, cleveland, cincinnati, miami. Who am I missing? This guy's a veteran. Well, not really mean. 

40:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
yeah, there's, uh, I've never haven't seen in dallas I have not been to no the the stadium in dallas okay, well, we are there. 

41:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We are there, we're gonna, we're gonna try some different, uh new content ideas. So I'm excited for that. Actually, uh, one thing we were really interested in doing was, uh, trying to see if we can get some cool gambling related content, um, just at the tailgate on the street. Um. So we have another. You know, awesome creator ben carrey shout out, uh, who's going to be doing some amazing content at the broncos games on the hammer betting network. So it's going to be, you know, a lot of prizes giving out trivia questions at the tailgates, a lot of vip stuff there. It's going to be a lot of prizes giving out trivia questions at the tailgates, a lot of VIP stuff there. It's going to be, hopefully, really, really fun. 

41:36
I'm excited for that content. We're going to try to make some stuff in Cincinnati and see what works. Not necessarily jamming the mic in people's faces like a lot of these videos, but we do want to give out some prizes. We do want to ask some trivia questions and make sure that we're actually seeing who's interested in betting in Ohio. Ohio set to go live Legal sports betting January 1st. Also, if you are in Cincinnati and you're going to the game and you're a fan of this podcast. Hit up Rob on Twitter, dm him and hopefully we can meet up at the game. 

42:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I have not been to. It's not Paul Brown Stadium anymore. I actually don't know what the Bengal Stadium is called Some random. Yeah, it's not Paul Brown Stadium anymore. I actually don't know what the Bengal Stadium is called. Used to be Some random, yeah it's sponsored. 

42:15
Whatever sponsor is now. I have not been there since I was probably in my early 20s, maybe even around 20 years old. I saw a banger of a game Carson Palmer against Jake DeLome, bengals Panthers. Huge fourth and one in that game for the Bengals where they ran Chad Johnson down the right sideline and Palmer hit him for like a 50-yard pass down the sideline on a bomb. Amazing Panthers had the ball to win the game Drove the field. Jake DeLome got picked in the end zone to end the game. Really great, it was great. But I will say that was like october. We had nosebleeds because at that time I had absolutely no money was losing all my money betting. We had nosebleeds. It was so cold, like it was cold man, I was in like four layers. I got like I was getting like hot chocolates just to keep my hands warm and stuff like that. I didn't even drink them, just to keep my hands warm. I don't know how people do the cold football games that's why I don't want to do it. 

43:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like is it that enjoyable? Especially? 

43:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
go to lambo where you're leaning I I've I've seen toronto fc play the mls cup in toronto twice, not even like in the pure of winter. It is freezing, man, like that's a 90 minute soccer game. Football games go way longer. On top of that, you can never keep your feet warm. I could wear three layers of socks and boots, my feet are always freezing. I don't know if this is just a person. I don't know how the guys go out there with no shirt, like I don't understand. And then for me, one of the worst things about the cold is like when you finally you're freezing, right, you finally get that heat whether it's the car heat or the house and like your body's thawing out and just in pain, like does this not happen to you guys as well? 

44:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Where it's like. That's the most miserable experience imaginable. I'd just rather not be cold ever. Yeah, we're definitely complainers, but also I went to formula one in montreal once. It was so hot I nearly got heat stroke and I was just pounding like vodka gatorades and then, and then had to switch to regular gatorades and then literally was so unenjoyable because you're just like, yeah, you're roasting, the heat is just so intense and the sun, and you're like okay, I'm done, so, we're just complaining now. But give us some indoor stadiums, man, is that too? Is that too much? 

44:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, where? Listen, I get it. There is. There is something to watching it, right, like I like watching those winter games at Lambeau. You know some snow on the field or it's like the frozen tundra. I like watching those winter games at Lambeau. You know some snow on the field, or it's like the frozen tundra. I like watching that. Do I want to be there in person to watch that? Absolutely not. There's. Like you couldn't pay me to go to that game. I don't know the amount of money you'd have to pay me to be in attendance for that full game and I'm a huge NFL fan. I just don't want that. 

45:09
Like my friends went three years ago, went to um, a bills game can't remember what game it was, you know they're like oh, robson, you know you're not coming. They're making fun of me or whatever. I'm like I'm not this ghost december bills game. Like I don't really care. The visibility they had like very good seats. The visibility was so bad that they left at the half to watch the second half in the coach bus and just have like a park, like what. What kind of experience is that? It was snowing so hard trying to get away from the wives. Well, of course I get that, and they have kids too. 

45:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't have kids so my buddies went to that. Patriots uh bills that was a. 

45:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They said it was unreal, though they loved it, but that's also didn't someone from the office go to that patriots bills game last year, the one where nobody could even throw the ball? It was so windy. Yeah, yeah, nate, nate oh, yeah, yeah one of our developers um oh yeah, forgot mississippi nate shout out to nate. No one has ever driven more. 

46:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No one has ever driven more times from toronto to buffalo for unnecessary reasons. That guy would drive to buffalo on a whim, for literally whatever, like, oh yeah, I gotta go to buffalo. Okay, whatever he's going, he misses once a week misses his homeland when he's here. 

46:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Man just wants to be back in the us and, um, yeah, I that that was hilarious. We're like nate, are you actually gonna go to this game like it's? It's so windy that they're not gonna be able to throw the ball. He's like I have to go. My dad planned it or whatever. I forgot he went to that Dad picked him up at the office. Yeah, that was a good day. 

46:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I'm looking forward to it. Anyways, everyone, we're out. Thank you very much for listening. Please like on YouTube, subscribe on YouTube rate and review five stars. We're at over 500 five-star reviews. 

46:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You guys are the best Also if you're listening on Thursday tonight primetime game, before, if you're not going to be in Cincinnati with Rob and Johnny, you can watch Andrew Walker and Joey Knish live teeing up the game and then back again at halftime. And then you can come back on Friday, friday morning, charge it to the Game Player Prop Show with Ben Carey and Nick Granered from Capwise and Ben Carey and Nick Granarad from Capwise and then following them up later in the day, tom Casale goes head-to-head with Joey Kanish on his five best CFB bets of the weekend. Kanish has no idea what they are. Tom Casale gives them out live and then Kanish reacts. It is a really good show. Tune into those. Those are live as well. Thank you guys.