00:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off here on the hammer betting. Network episode number 71 very easy, gino gino, gino, malkin. 71. I was looking up other players I could. There was dennis schroeder. War 71 with the celtics, but actually war 71 in minor hockey. 

00:25
back before I switched my number that's because 69 and 70 were taken right, correct? Okay, of course we're going to do a guest episode this week. Obviously, anyone who wants to recommend a guest you can do that in the BetStamp Discord. You could do that in the YouTube comments. You can really do it anywhere. Message myself BetStamp account HammerHQ on comments. You can really do it anywhere. Um, message myself, uh, bet stamp account hammer hq on twitter. We do take the feedback and incorporate it. Our next guest was our most highly recommended or requested guest. You know him as sam panayatovich. You can follow him on twitter at sp shoot. You can watch him as a betting analyst on neson. You can read his stuff at Fox Sports and he is the host of one of my favorite sports betting podcasts. That doesn't really mean much because I don't listen to a ton of sports betting podcasts full disclosure. But Chicken Dinner hugely popular in the space. Sam, welcome to Circles Off. How's it going? 

01:19 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
It's going well. Episode 71, by the way, is the Israel Adonij episode. I'm amazed that we didn't get to that off the top. Is he adonis? Isn't he like a canadian football legend? 

01:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I. I I mean possibly me and johnny are not the right guys to ask about canadian football legends. I would say I mean, there there's a few others. Like we love to do the numbers game generally football, I usually have someone that comes to mind right away Seventies, you're like the go-to is a Russian hockey legend who played alongside one of the greatest Canadian players of all time. 

01:52
Yeah, Evgeny Malkin was the easy one we we always remember like famous hockey players. But Sam, for those that that don't know, you just give us some personal background on yourself and your story and how you got involved in the betting space. 

02:07 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Sure. Well, my most recent story is I can't get $100 down at BetMGM on a World Series Exacta. I guess we'll get into that, maybe a little bit later on in this program, but for me it started on the south side of Chicago. I was about 14 years old at an all boys high school and people were, you know, betting on sports at lunchtime and you know, a kid had a notebook and a pencil and an eraser and all that jazz and and I was like, well, I like sports, I know sports, I can, I can make money at the time you're betting like 510 bucks, you're betting lunch money. Will I get a pizza puff? Will I not get a pizza puff? Will I get two pizza puffs? 

02:46
I mean, this was, this was big shit back in the day when you're a sophomore junior in high school and, to be honest with you both, I was awful because you didn't really know how to weigh the point spread. Like at that time Vince Young is in Texas and you think, well, they're going to win and cover every game and they didn't. And you learn the hard way. But I learned, I eventually, in the next five, six years, by way of losing a lot, you sort of learn how to win by understanding what not to do. 

03:18
And then by the time I got to the end of college, I was running numbers and picking up envelopes for people and you would pay attention because I had the back ends. I would see what all the people that always paid were doing wrong. So you sort of you know, reshape the wheel if you will. And you know it started as as losing lunch money in high school and then pretty much going through the other side of the counter and seeing the mistakes that other people made made and trying not to make those same mistakes. And then from there, you know, 10 years later I'm working in Vegas, living in Vegas and and a lot of things that happened in between then. But that was basically how it started for me as a high schooler in Chicago, for uh, for full disclosure for everyone who's viewing or listening. 

04:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've known Sam now going on about a decade. We met through um odd shark as influencers uh, for the odd shark brand and had some, some Epic Vegas trips. But um, what's scary to me. I almost get shivers because it's we have literally the exact same story Like and I, and it's crazy in the space how many people have that same story? I started betting young, when I was in high school, had no idea what I was doing, thought I watched sports and can beat sports and then realized after losing a lot of money that I can't and then figured out what not to do. And I think that is so repeatable in the space now. But it's exactly how I got to where I am. I tell people this all the time. I do well in sports betting. Now, for the majority of my life I've been a losing sports better. I've been more of a loser than a winner in the space. But just wanted to you know, just point out that. Are you up or down lifetime? I'm up lifetime. 

04:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm joking. 

04:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm joking. 

04:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But really what's funny though, just bring it up is if you ask someone who's like a clear losing sports better but still betting at like the age of like 30, 35 and like, well, you're up or down lifetime, the answer 90 percent of time is going to be this boat, even a boat even lifetime. Yeah, if anyone says they're a boat, even lifetime, they're down big, let's just, let's put it that, would you agree, sam? 

05:22 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
I would agree with that for sure. The thing is like the units, if you will have increased quite a bit from. You know 16, 17 to 33 now, and I think the one thing that I had to learn was that I don't have to bet. It's not about the quantity, it's about the quality, and I think you know a lot of those accounts that I would see back in the day we'd be talking. 

05:46
You know 36 bets on a college football Saturday and guys would go, you know 16 and 20, but just get murdered by the juice. And then they're buying points and they're buying from six to seven and laying one 30, one 35 and and not accounting for all the math that goes into it. And so, yeah, I think the older I've gotten, the more I've come to understand that you can bet more on what you love and sort of strike what you are sort of on. Like you know, I think we all, as as competitors, we love a challenge, we love to be right, but I love three, four games a week. I kind of like six or seven more, and then I'm 50-50 on 10 more. If I can whittle my list down and concentrate on the goods, then I have a better chance to beat the house. 

06:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, so everyone has their own process. I know people who will bet like 60 college football games on a Saturday or, let's say, college basketball as well High volume that can profit over time. But the average person who doesn't have an edge as they continue to fire more bets without an edge, they're just bleeding way quicker than they would if they were more selective. So there's there's all sorts of different styles, but I do often preach that looking for quality over quantity. If you are more, you know. If you don't have an edge in sports I'm not saying that you don't, by the way to each their own, but you have a process that works for you and that's completely fine. I do want to talk about your betting, Sam, because I follow a lot of betting analysts in the space. You're probably one of the few that I know that says involved with actual betting, as you are with creating sports betting content. So what does your day-to-day look like and how much like? Basically, how do you weigh the day job against your betting? How do you find time to balance both? 

07:36 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
you get up earlier and earlier, you know. I mean I'm probably up at 7, 30 eastern because I love to see the screen sort of plain, if you will, you know, because a lot of the movers they don't come in until around 5, pacific, or later. Maybe it's 5, 15, 5, 30, so that's 8, 8, 15, 8, 30 east coast. So I want to get up and look at the screen when it's not lit up like a christmas tree, like take a mental picture of what these lines are, what they look like, and then all of a sudden, boom, things start moving. Especially monday, tuesday, wednesday, college basketball like eight Eastern and nine Eastern is a fricking free for all. I mean totals are flying, sides are moving. So it depends on the time of year. But usually I try and get up at the latest eight o'clock and look at what the board looks like, you know like, pay attention and then sort of chart that throughout the day. 

08:26
But I have my you know my work obligations. I have to write seven columns a week between Nessun and Fox. I have to do two shows per day a show at one o'clock for 20 straight minutes and then a half hour linear television show at five 30 Eastern. There are two podcasts a week. We do videos, videos, we do all this stuff, but still, at the end of the day, like the bat phone is number one, like as long as I can answer it, I will answer it, because you never know what you're going to find out. You never know what you're hearing. I talk to groups in vegas and colorado and new jersey and mississippi, um, so they tell me what they're going to move on, what they're hearing, and then, and then I, you know, I, I sort of Rob it's a weird way I sort of view myself as like a networker, like I'm not really a reporter because I'm not in the business of breaking news, but I can take information that I get and then go to a you know a source around a school or a booster and say, you know, it's one thing if somebody says, hey, find out what you can about the quarterback, but it's another thing when they go, hey, the quarterback's in trouble or the quarterback's hurt, then I can take that and go to the source and go, hey, what's up with the quarterback, as opposed to hearing anything about the quarterback. You know, it's the same question, but the way that I ask it is completely different. So if they know that, I know that it's easier to uncover things. So I play reporter a lot, but I'm not a public reporter. I funnel it to my friends and funnel it to my partners. 

09:51
And the perfect example was this Aiden O'Connell kid at Purdue. You know, two weeks ago we find out he's not going to play on like a Wednesday or Thursday and that line is Purdue minus 20, total 61 and a half, 62. And we have it on 95. He's not playing right. Problem is jeff brahm is such a prick, the head coach of purdue, he's not going to say anything, nor is he obligated to say anything, I guess. So you know, on sunday hour before the game, hey, aiden o'connell's not going to play. 

10:20
Well, we knew that, but we couldn't confirm that. That's the problem. You're trying to confirm the impossible because nobody at purd, purdue is going to say with certainty the kid's out. Then of course, the following week we had him in. But I answered that sort of all over the place. But my days are all over the place because there's no pattern. Every day is different and if we get something golden on a quarterback or a center or a star running back or whatever, you know, it'll change the entire day, and then I have to either wake up early the next day or stay late on that day. 

10:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So when I was working a day job as well, I've worked in a variety of different spots. I was with the score for several years doing content. I was doing, you know, consulting for sports books. I've had to do meetings during the day where I don't have access to this, to the phone, and I used to be thinking in my head just sitting there, like you're saying you do like a 20 minute hit at one o'clock. I wonder if you have the same thoughts as me where you're just there and you're like what am I missing right now? Like I have a, I have a feeling something's there. I can't pull up my phone and actually check and I wonder if you actually, uh, if you that, if you have the same you know feelings that I do about just not like this to me. I'm so reliable on it right now and I wonder you know putting it away for you, if that actually has like, takes a emotional toll, not being attached to it when you're doing lives, live hits. 

11:43 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Emotional toll is a stretch. I can tell you, though, I have wired this computer that I'm on right now with all the messaging apps. So I've got the iMessage, I've got the Gmail and I also have Telegram on the computer. So even don't tell my bosses this, but when I'm at a meeting and I look like I'm taking notes, I'm probably answering text messages. But there was a college basketball game. 

12:08
I not that I planned on bringing this up, because I never know what we're going to go with things like this, but I remember it was like a Loyola SIU total in the Mo Valley in like the middle of February, and those games are low. 

12:22
To begin with, the totals are like 126 and a half, 127. And we found out that the two best players at SIU weren't going to go. Now the drop off between A and B at SIU is a lot larger than the A and B at Duke, for example, because you know you go from five star to four star. At SIU you might go from four star to two star. So I missed because I couldn't, like I was giving a presentation and I missed this total by seven points and I got to my, got back to my seat and I'm like you know, and I have 900 messages of like we're gonna go we're gonna go, we're gonna go and like all these people are saying we're going under, we're going to go, we're going to go, we're going to go and like all these people are saying we're going under, we're going under. 

13:06
And by the time I sat down, I was probably up there for eight and a half minutes and I missed 126 and a half. The total was 119. And I was never so mad during the meeting. But I can't tell people like I gave this great presentation. I thought I sit down and I'm furious. Like I thought I sit down and I'm furious, like, and then I'm like trying to, I'm trying to contain my anger, and they're like are you okay? I'm like, oh yeah, I just I gotta, yeah, I gotta mean, no, I'm not too happy about it. I can't tell my, my middle manager, that I just missed a line move by seven and a half points. 

13:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Um, so I just missed a 23% closing line value. 

13:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
My expected value on this bet was this much what I made in this presentation was not not nearly what what I could have made off this bet but here's, here's the misconception around the office. 

13:53 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
People think, because I gamble, that I'm like this degenerate, and it's hard for me to explain how I'm not. You know, like I'm not sitting there, like in this meeting, I'm not scratching my neck to fire a. I'm not sitting there, like in this meeting, I'm not scratching my neck to fire a random game on something that I don't have an edge on, like I'm trying to get ahead of what's about to be a huge move. And if you come to my desk, you know, and ask me, like a lot of people come to my desk and I'm in the middle of something, they'll go hey, what do you think about the Patriots this weekend? And I don't have eight minutes to go back and forth about the Patriots. You know, like I kind of lean to the dog or I like the over. You know why is he so short? Why is he? Because something is going on and I can't tell you what's going on yeah, that's funny, I mean you're. 

14:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I get that on the on the gambling part, where you're saying, like you know, you're not really a gambler per se. The way I see when someone says, like gambling, that's more like yeah, I enjoy the sweat of risking money and having the chance to win money, but it doesn't really entail like having an edge on that. I would consider you saying more like a better. That's why I consider, like you know, we're not an investor in a sense in a sense, yes, but we're not really gamblers like in. 

15:03
In fact, you speak for yourself I mean rob, rob is rob will go dunk some money on the casino horse race game but like this morning, when rob sends a message, who? 

15:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
are we betting on in uc who are we hammering in champions league this afternoon? Yeah, no rob, rob likes to sweat uh the the. 

15:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The longer I've been uh betting myself like, the more I realize I actually hate gambling. Like I, I hate the casino. I don't ever want to go and place a bet. It pains me to place a bet that I know is going to lose or I know, sorry, is a loser, like is negative ev, so I don't even do that. So I would actually say like I'm less of a gambler than like anyone I know, like any of my friends, and I actually don't like placing negative EV bets unless you know what I mean. Like again with if you're betting with friends and stuff like that and you're just like handshake deal, like I'll bet you 10 bucks on this, or like betting on a game of table tennis, sure, but like for actually getting the sweat I feel you Like it's hard to explain to people that like I don't actually gamble, I don't like the sweat of like losing, potentially losing money I feel I used to, I used to, and look, it took me a long time to understand that I wasn't plus ev on the hawaii game. 

16:12 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
But look, if you're hanging out with your buddies and it's a saturday and I started cracking them at 1pm and all of a sudden it's midnight and I'm up a little bit in the account, yeah, you know, I used to roll it all the time, let's you know, colt Brennan's there, timmy Chang is there. You know how can they not cover? Discipline is the hardest part of this racket. I don't need to tell you to that. I'm telling you, the older I've gotten, the less I've fired, and by fired I mean sort of John Wayne double pistols from the hip because the more you do that, the more volatile things can be. 

16:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think for me my you know my tendencies like I'll have the same amount of bets on sunday now than I would have when I was younger 10 years ago, but now I've accumulated those over the course of the week at good prices rather than spraying the board, you know, 20 minutes before nfl games start on Sunday, and there's a huge difference between that right. One is a very degenerate behavior or not even just really understanding how markets work. The other is more disciplined in terms of you know, I missed a number. I'm going to let this go now. I'm going to forget about this game. I don't need to bet it anymore. I echo a lot of what you said about the workplace experience as well, cause I've I've faced similar before, where it just feels like you explain this to people and they're like you know, they nod, but they just walk away Like yeah, okay, like this guy, he's still like in his heart, just a better. 

17:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And that's what I'm saying. It's like the people who say like oh, how are you lifetime up or down? Like I'm about you know? It's like that's what it is. It's like people you say that and no one believes you and then, like rob, will say like yeah, no, I don't actually like gamble away on, just like firing you know tens of thousands of dollars on random stuff and they're like sure, buddy, yeah, of course you don't. Yeah, of course you don't, but you got like a system yeah, that's oh, man, the score is uh. 

18:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Scorebet is advertising these system commercials in Canada. I don't know if that's what you're referring to. 

18:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, no, I think it's FanDuel actually, you see, oh it's the score but producer Zach's going to listen to it. It's FanDuel. Fanduel Responsible Gaming, and they do that dumb. 

18:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's the dumbest commercial ever. He Home dogs, Home dogs, mascots, birds yeah, it's a horrible commercial, no, no. 

18:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Then they actually say with that commercial, then they say like no, my system's actually that I use the Fanduil responsible gaming tools. And then they're like wow, that's the system, that's how you win. And then they're like that keeps it more fun, or whatever. 

18:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
At least they're advertising responsible gaming. 

18:45
Better than a predatory commercial, I guess. But um, agreed. Um, sam, let's move on to the state of content. I know I followed you on Twitter for a long time. We've talked off air about stuff like this before, but, um, as someone you know, me and Johnny are now involved in the content space. Obviously, with this podcast, I'm doing a bunch of stuff for the hammer betting network. Now I personally often get triggered or, uh, find it offensive and I'm just being honest with people when I'm compared to others in the space, purely because I think that there is a level of transparency and quality, frankly, that is lacking in the space. Do you ever get the same feeling? 

19:21 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Every day. Every day, you've had a couple of bangers. 

19:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sam, sorry to keep you, sorry to leave. Had a couple of banger podcasts that I've I've enjoyed a lot as well on this topic. But, sorry, go back to you Sam. 

19:33 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
No, I mean, look, I you know I had I think we're all talking about the same one. That was about six months ago and I just I had it because I, you know it's one thing for a sports book and I'm not going to name names, book or content creator, because that's I've learned that that's just a losing battle, no matter how you shake it. But I have an issue. When a sports book is just is misleading the customer. It's hard enough in this racket to win. It's hard enough to beat minus 110. It's hard enough in this racket to win. It's hard enough to beat minus 110. But when people that don't win are shaped as people that win by a sports book, that's goal is to take your money. That, to me, is an issue and unfortunately that got a little muddy. I mean, I was very careful with what I said and I stand by what I said. But then you get the people from all different walks of life like, oh, this guy hates this, this and he hates that and he doesn't appreciate this, and it's like no, I am. For five years I've somebody one of my listeners sent me a long email after that episode and he said you're basically like Batman for the sports betting space and I thought well, actually that's actually not a bad way to put it, like I would never say that about myself, but I have. 

20:46
You know, for four or five years, on Chicken Dinner and on Twitter, I've been saying you know, boosts are bullshit. You know, when they take something and boost it from minus 150 to plus 100, like, most of those don't win, and that's true, the majority of them don't win. And that's true, the majority of them don't win. The same game parlay is impossible. You know to win. If you bet those every day, you're going to lose money. But when you roll into an NFL Sunday and you have this phone out and you have an American account whether it be DraftKings, fanduel, pointsbet, mgm you get literally push notifications to your phone about building the same game parlay, which is like selling crack to crack heads. You know like it really is. 

21:32
And I just I want people to make money. When I give plays out on Twitter or on Nessun or on Fox, they're free. When I give plays out on chicken dinner, they're free. Like, I don't want to charge you money. I've been offered to sell picks. I've been offered to do that. I don't like. If you're paying for picks you have to win even more than 52 and a half 53%. So I'm pro consumer and when I feel like the consumer is being misguided, that's when I get pissed. But, rob and Johnny, I've had to like muzzle myself now, because if I join the wrong fight or the wrong conversation then I'm the bad guy, even though I'm not the bad guy. So it's it's super backwards at times. 

22:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean it's challenging to navigate because, um, you, you know and I get this too I'm very much in the same boat where people will accuse me of being against a certain person or a certain demographic, and it's really the principle that it bothers me. It has nothing to do with the person. You obviously want to cite an example. The way that I've kind of amended things now is I don't actually take well, at least I try not to take personal shots at people, and not even personal shots. I try not to call out a specific person, but rather just a topic and try to educate on the topic rather than citing oh, this person said this, this is why it's garbage. 

22:50
I think you can make that same point by saying this is why this concept is garbage, without identifying the person. So I mean, it's always going to be challenging to navigate this right, because what I find too is you have so much of the population that's uneducated in the space. The vast majority of people are uneducated in the space. So you might say something, sam, as an informed person, and it might be contrary to what everyone out there believes, and now they think you're the idiot, you're the asshole for saying this stuff. Leave these other people alone. They're just doing their jobs, and I think that's where it becomes extremely challenging to navigate the right way. 

23:33 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
If you remember, you know, when DraftKings and FanDuel first started popping the daily fantasy. This is like 2010-ish, 2011,. Everybody was a fantasy expert and Twitter wasn't as popular then as it is now, but everywhere you looked there were all these fantasy experts. And Kostas and I have talked about this. You know Nick wrote very well, we go back a long time. He said he remembers 2012, 13, 14, being hell on earth. 

24:08
You know, going to websites looking for fantasy because you didn't really have people that were transparent. This is before the best stamps of the world and the handicapper was solid or not, and you didn't know, because records were few and far between. And you'd see this person with a gold chain on and like a pimp hat and a feather and you're like, oh well, he must know what he's doing and you never knew. You never knew. 

24:36
So I think the transparency to me, is is the most important thing in this space. You know, if I'm looking for content and I'm looking for advice, I have to, I have to see records, like I just do. I want to know what this person is. I want to know what they are in the NBA or in college basketball, or in hockey or in college football or whatever, and that's why, on chicken dinner I literally put at the bottom of every pick I give out for free. I put the record of that sport in parentheses and you can see it. And if you really wanted to go back and track it, you could do that. I have spreadsheets in case anybody calls me out. But yeah, I mean transparency is the most important thing and I don't think I mean if I were to ask YouTube take 100 content creators, right, take 100, male, female, whatever how many of the 100 are wholeheartedly transparent? How would you answer that of 100? 

25:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
wholeheartedly one, rob. 

25:29 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Rob loves that word I would say one one out of a hundred are like actually transparent fully transparent in that like because there's, you consider yourself transparent. 

25:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's actually a good question. That that's it's. My situation is very complex relative to other content creators because I bet professionally and I have to try to. You know I can't give out every single bet that I've ever made because it would only work against me. However, all the bets I give out in public I do track. So I think from that sense I'm transparent. 

26:01
But there's a lot of people who think that they are transparent and they aren't like. I'll give you a random example of stuff I see all the time in the content space that nobody else is going to see. But somebody might give out a play on an NFL game at random Colts minus three, minus one, 10, just picking random teams here. Later in the week they say they don't like the Colts anymore, they like the other side. They're buying out of that play. Well, okay, you've bought out of that play. Now you actually have a bet on the other side essentially. 

26:31
So those should be tracked as two independent bets. You can't just delete that from the record. There's VIG involved here. No one can buy out for free, but people do that. They just remove it from their picks and they go on like nothing happened. And that's, like you know, maybe not intentional, maybe it is, but I think there. I think there's like 1%, truly 1%, that is fully transparent. I think on top of that there's maybe a 25% that think they are but they in reality are not. I don't know if you would agree with me. 

27:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know. I don't know, I don't really know if, like anybody, is like a hundred percent transparent, because you still are always selling something right. So, like rob, he has all these bets that he doesn't share right, and he can never share them because it doesn't make sense to do it. He's gonna. He will stand to lose more by sharing them than he would by posting them. Sorry, by sharing them, then by not sharing them, however, you're still building up this like persona that, like you win on sports betting, right, and I, I know he wins, and like I know you know, you know, just, it's not, it's not hard to tell because you can hear the way he talks. Like, obviously I, I see the stuff you're betting and I know it wins, but also, on top of that, the amounts you're betting. Like you, just you'd be broke if you were. If you're a shitty losing, better, obviously. So I don't. I know rob wins. But also, if you're just a random guy on on Twitter who just joined, like at Rob is oldest pro, better, like, how do you really know that he wins? You don't. So, like everyone is still mixing something up. I want to bring up this actually. 

28:00
So I was talking to a really close buddy of mine. He, he doesn't bet sports, uh, just like guy. Uh, my buddy that I grew up with, one of my best friends, he is uh in the fitness industry, he's a trainer and he does like online coaching and stuff like that. And the one thing that he really brought up to me was he was like oh man, it's crazy, like I'm trying to grow. He's trying to grow in the fitness industry by putting out like really good, high quality content and he doesn't want to scam people and do all this shit. But there's constantly people growing online presences. That he says in his industry. Keep in mind. I don't mention how bad it's the same in gambling and sports betting. 

28:34
But he was like there's guys that just sell like this program or this course or this thing and they get like 100,000 followers and then they're making like 100, 200 grand a month selling this like course that's going to get you abs in two weeks and he's like they're not going to get abs in two weeks. It's a complete bullshit thing. But there's marketers, they go to it and now those guys are big and those guys are the big guys in the industry and they're giving out all this thing like get, get ripped quick, the same way that guys in our industry are like get rich quick, and those guys themselves are you know, let's say it's a male, uh, influencer would be like someone who has a six-pack and a body that people desire. And then we look at this gambling industry and you see like guys were like yeah, I win all this money betting, like here's my car, here's my thing, it's the exact same. 

29:17
So what I was when I heard that from him, I was like that's crazy, because there's really, if you back out, that exists in every single industry. So when you're saying, sam, like oh, it's just like the industry is terrible right now with all this, I agree, but also I feel like that just happens every single industry, there's always going to be people who are just like yo, get rich quick. And then they blow up and they're like how did all these dumb people fall for this? But maybe that's just life, maybe that just happens in that space and then also in our space. So when I'm like yo, rob, this guy appears to be a pro better Like, everyone does that and everyone has to like at some point, just trust a guy that this guy is good, because it's never going to be like 100% transparency. I don't follow you around all day. Is this a fine rant or did I overstep here? 

30:04 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Well, I think you hit on it because I think a real issue, not only in sports betting but in society in general, is the struggle or the battle between short-term gratification and long-term goals. I mean, that's, that's 80% of us, right. I mean we worry about, you know, putting a picture on Instagram. I don't even have Instagram for the record, but let's put this picture on Instagram and get 600 likes from people we never talked to, as opposed to picking up the phone and calling our best friend or our mother or whatever. So it's like, it's weird. Like the way that we, you know, sustain relationships a lot of us is super weird because we rely on people we never talked to to sort of build us up. And I think that's sort of what you're talking about with the marketing of this. 

30:49
You know, shredded six pack thing like Ooh, I can look like that. I don't really want to put the work in. I don't want to go to the gym every day or five days a week. I want to take this or I want to take that, I want to, I want to get the secret or I want to cut corners to look like that, and I think I learned that in high school. Look, it's all about the longterm, it's about the big picture. It's not about the short-term gratification. 

31:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed. Yeah, I think shortcuts are definitely like why we see people buying picks in the space for one. It's like, ah, I don't really want to put in the work, I'll just buy picks from someone else who put in the work, Regardless of whether that work is good or not, I'm going to buy picks from someone who put in the work. So I agree with a lot of what you said there. I want to pick up on something just really quickly. You said you don't have an Instagram, which is fine. 

31:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean I have an Instagram, you're missing out on a lot of triggering stuff, so you're probably saving yourself. 

31:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I presume you don't have a TikTok either, no, so I have to ask you this because we are seeing content in the sports betting space move in a different direction, which is to other platforms. Twitter is still huge for sports betting content, but we're seeing a lot of stuff pop up on Instagram in shorter form, in TikTok in shorter form. Is that something that you would ever consider gravitating to? Have you thought about branching out to other platforms? 

32:08 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Never, never. I have too much to do. I don't. I care more about my relationships and more about the right content than wasting 20 minutes putting up a TikTok. I know there are people watch TikToks in the hundreds of thousands and all that. But I've always thought that TikTok was was for people that want attention. And I don't really want attention and that might sound weird, because our goal is to build our brands and all that, but I don't give a shit about how many followers I have. You know, somebody goes. He's only got 12,000 followers, yeah, but I have better relationships than somebody with 50,000 followers. 

32:45
And just because somebody looks a certain way or can do a certain thing, it doesn't mean that they win at sports betting Like a certain way or can do a certain thing. It doesn't mean that they win at sports betting, like, if you're following tiktokers for your sports bets, that's a you problem, right, and I think you need to figure that out before it gets way too weird. I mean, like all this stuff, like the. You know my new favorite thing on tiktok and people send unfortunately I don't have tiktok, but people still send me this garbage. 

33:09
My favorite tiktok thing now is when somebody bets the strikeout prop over and it's three and a half or four and a half and the pitcher finishes with three or four and it's that damn hook. It drives me insane, like where, where I'm from, the hook is a differentiator between a game that was back and forth, it's a basketball game, lined at six and a half and the favorites up nine, and then the dog is down four and then it ends with a buzzer beater off the backboard in the game land six. That is the hook. Cut the. I went over three and a half strikeouts, leaving the minus 150 juice out of the equation. By the way, right over three and a half minus 150 lands on three. Oh, I lost by the hook. No, you did it. 

34:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Shut the hell up what about over one and a half three pointers? We buy the we saw one is literally, quite literally. The most likely outcome is going to happen, like 45 of the time, if not more, for if you have over one and a half three-pointers, I saw the interception hook excuse one time no, you know what was it? An over 0.5 it's 0.5. 

34:27 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
He threw a pick. I lost by the hook. Lost by the hook. One interception, ah, I lost by the hook. 

34:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Lost by the hook. One interception. Ah, we lost by the hook. It is what it is. You mentioned something about how you want to do the right sports betting content. I'm curious how you would measure success in sports betting content or what you define as being, quote-unquote, the right type of sports betting content. 

34:50 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
That's a very good question. I think it's different with all the platforms. Like on chicken dinner, my goal is to send picks out that will beat the closing number. Like I want to send out the team at minus one and a half before they get to three. You know I and I send those plays out, like I sent out a play the other day Iowa plus three and a half. I think that's going to come down to three. It might close two and a half, so I wanted to send that out then in there. So chicken dinner is come, get it. Come get it now, cause I think it's going to move or I had some knowledge that it might move. 

35:25
Um, with Nesson. I want to really explain the why and the how. You know on the television show, I think you know throughout New England there are a lot of people that don't gamble and they're getting like. If you follow me on Chicken Dinner, you have an idea that I know what I'm talking about. But the television audience is new to me, especially because I'm not from here, so they don't know me from a hole in the wall. I have to basically explain what things are, why they move, how things are sort of changed and moved around. So I think the education for me on Nesson is paramount, because we're speaking to a new audience and sports betting still isn't legal. 

36:02
Here and then with Fox, I hate to admit this, but I care the most about the win loss record because that's what they care about, and I've gotten off to an insanely hot start. That's rather unsustainable, but I make those best bets usually in a post on Friday when we have all the information, when we know who's in, we know who's out. These lines are probably not going to move all that much. And then I'm just handicapping the games and, um, I started 12 and 4, went 3 and 2 last week, um, so it's, it's like it's a stupid hot start, but that's what they care about and so I am sort of pushed to care about that, like let's win more than we lose. And those are all flat bets. I mean it's one unit of pop at minus 110 most of the time. 

36:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so I started dunking in some minus 700 money lines yeah or the the uh. 

36:56 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
The espn writer that was a best bet story going into the 2020 season. It was give us your best bets. And the the writer put the dodgers to make the playoffs at minus 1500. Was the was the best. 

37:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Hey, if he made, if he made the line minus 10 000 and he was getting minus 1500. 

37:13 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
You know here's the thing, though he didn't make the number minus 10 000. Metcalf and I went back and forth on this on chicken dinner we sat down in august and he was like, well, you know, if it should be minus 5 000, you could lay 1500. And I'm like, yes, in theory you're right, but for the season too this person did not think that I don't even want to start. 

37:34
And then Metcalf and I got into the agreement or the argument rather Well, if you gave me minus 2000 on the sun to come up and I go that would never happen. That's a terrible example. Who would be dealing the sun to come up at minus 2000? And he goes. But if it was so, then we're going back and forth about this stupid sunrise agreement argument. And he's right. I mean, if you could lay, you know, two dimes to win one, the sun would come up. You do it, but that would never be a thing. 

38:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah. But also, if he did have an edge on that, it's fine you could give out that pick. But like I feel, like in a season-long article, like it's tough to give up the favor to make the playoffs as your top edge, especially because you'd have to tie up that money for the whole season too. Like maybe, maybe his goal was he counting like his units though at the end, because then it's it's fine, but if he's can't, or like his roi but. 

38:24
If he's counting is like three and oh, dodgers make the playoffs and then, like you know where's team in this playoff. 

38:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, stuff like that. But I mean that's possible, right? You never know when. That's part of that challenge with the content space, like at the end of that season the Dodgers make the playoffs, or if they missed, let's say they missed. As an example, is that person going to be like, oh, lost 15 units in my preseason bet? 

38:48
no, they're gonna be like oh and one and actually they probably wouldn't even say oh and one, let's be real here. They wouldn't call it to their call it out, because this is so long ago, people forgot about it by now, but no one would use the minus 15 units. I just think that that's like whether he had an edge or not, or thought he had an edge or not. How lame is that. Though, if you like, as a reader, you're just like okay, like this guy's telling me, the dodgers are gonna make a playoffs, like this is why I'm, I'm reading esp. 

39:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't, I don't, like, I don't agree with you guys fully on this. Like I, it's fine to give out a minus 1500 if it's a bet. But you guys are 100 right. You didn't think that was a good bet. He just gave that out like there's no way he had an edge on. 

39:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But say you were writing an article like you do a lot of props right on a weekly basis. Say your favorite prop of the week was actually like a minus 4,000, no safety in the game. 

39:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm not going to give out Gerald Everett no first touchdown score. 

39:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly that's what I'm saying. Like you would find something that isn't just like a complete, obvious bet to make. Do you know what I'm saying? 

39:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I guess, but like you're still, if you have an edge on that, you have an edge on that. You know what I mean. Like you could have an edge on a minus, like minus 5,000. Tom Brady, no last touchdown. Yes, If you have that, you have it. But yes, you wouldn't give that on an article. It's like it's not. 

40:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not legit I would also say that it does you such a disservice to give out that big minus, because it's like a no-win scenario for you as the content creator. Right, like, if that bet wins, everyone's like oh great, like you told me, the dodgers are gonna make the playoffs, thank you. Like everyone knew that once that bet loses, you are gonna get roasted. Yeah, you're right. 

40:31
So, like it puts you in a situation I'd much rather be the guy giving out plus 200s, plus 300s here and there, like if if I'm going for the non-transparent way of advocating bets, I think it's a lot easier to give out the plus 200, plus 300 type of thing and then continuously, on a weekly basis, say like hey, hey, you know it was a long shot, didn't expect it to win, didn't come through Record doesn't really matter because I'm taking underdogs. Like that's the way if I'm in the non-transparent space, sam, that's the way I'm going with it. 

41:05 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
I could not live with myself if I told my audience to lay 15 to win one on a very risky make the playoffs market in baseball. Because, as we learned this past year with the Chicago White Sox, who were minus 700 to make the playoffs and I look, I I ate a lot on that team this year, I will be the first to admit that and I I told people to lay 190, 90 when the season started and I I kind of came back and said you know, halfway through you should take them at plus money, like plus one 25, plus one 30. So I lost people 3.2 units on that too, actually, no, sorry, 2.9, one nine and one Um. So you know that sucks, but if I told somebody to lay 700, 800 and it lost, that would defeat everything I've done over the last 10 years. 

41:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I totally get it. I totally get it. You've mentioned a bunch of different sports in terms of your betting baseball, college basketball. We are in football season. I know you're a big football bettor. I want to talk to you a little bit about college football season. 

42:11
I know you're a big football. Better, I want to talk to you a little bit about college football, and I have personally found it extremely challenging to bet both college football and the NFL in unison. But particularly with college football, there are so many games. I come from a more mathematical approach, so I can run a model number on every game, but I always fear that I'm missing something Like there's somebody in you know with better information or someone who understands teams a little bit better than that can be more successful in college football than someone who's just making a number on a game and betting their edges. So if you're comfortable with doing it, can you walk us through your handicapping style, cause you did mention that you do handicap college football games on Friday as well? What goes into that? Obviously, you don't have to give away all the trade secrets or anything like that, but do you have any sort of mathematical approach, or is this mostly just some sort of qualitative analysis? 

43:05 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
It's mostly market and feel Like I have power ratings from a couple handicappers that I really respect and I use that as sort of the North star. But power ratings, as we know, are not always a hundred percent, in fact they're rarely near a hundred percent. So I will look at a lot of times. I love my situationals Like I love teams that are, like I call it, the accordion effect all the time on chicken dinner. When a team has one and covered four straight against a team, that's maybe two and two, one and three, ats, like that point spread is naturally bigger because maybe the game should be nine and a half but the spread is 12 and a half 13. You know why? Why should I not take the points with an ugly team that has really not done anything wrong but they've been on the wrong side of a couple bad breaks, like a pick six or you know, a block field goal for a touchdown, like those things all matter and I think it all comes out in the wash. But I, the first thing I do is when those lines come out Sunday at circa, like I write, I write the first five that that jump off and I love. You know, I had a bookmaker years ago, teach me the importance of the opening number. For example, if a sports book in Vegas opens up a game seven and a half, they like the favorite. They're not telling you that, like they would never openly admit that. But when you open a football game seven and a half and not six and a half, you naturally have built in your respect for the favorite, because most people would look at that and go, ooh, I'm going to take the hook, right, I'm going to take seven and a half. So why is it seven and a half and not seven or six and a half? To me that's fascinating, those football games, big favorites. Is a team 20 or is a team 21 and a half? There's a reason for that. Like, understand that. Like a 21 and a half point favorite is 21 and a half for a reason instead of being 20. So a 20 point favorite, the book naturally is built in to the dog. So I I look at where these numbers open and then I watch how they move, and I'm not talking at circa, because circa will take two bets and move the game three points. I look offshore to chris and I see where chris is moving. And if you see those moves on monday and sure, sometimes they're setting something up for later in the week. But if you see a team go from five to seven on Monday and you can grab a six and a half, a stale six and a half you take it Because I think beating that number is the most important thing in sports. 

45:28
You know, some people will say it's not. I disagree. If you can constantly get the right number and beat the market and get ahead of it, you're going to win more times than not. I firmly believe in that. So I'm trying to get an understanding of the market and get a feel for where things were and where they're going, where they're headed. And that's sometimes half the battle, like last week. 

45:48
I laid 16 and a half with Oregon because I knew. I laid that on Wednesday because Rob, I knew by Saturday it would be 17 or 17 and a half. And they're up at half, 31 to three. They end up winning by 18. So all the numbers hit. But I I've done this long enough. I've sat at this fricking computer for six, eight hours a day for years. I know that Oregon is going to be 17, 17 and a half. So I know that I have to lay it at 16 and a half. So it's understanding the number more than anything else. 

46:18
And then, if you get the right information, you have to understand, like, where this could go. 

46:22
Like the Purdue example we talked about the kids. 

46:25
The kids on the fence, the books don't know if he's in or not. Purdue's 12 and a half at Minnesota If he's in. I look at what Kenny White has Like where does he have O'Connell at the point spread. He had him six points to the line. So if this kid gets ruled in, you're not going to move it to seven because then the Sharps would come in in late Minnesota seven, seven and a half, eight. 

46:52
But if I can grab 12 and a half right now and make a little dice roll that he's going to play and this number goes sub 10, I have to take the 12 and a half. But it's because I respect the sources who gave me the information. So, look, it's a very it's a very complex stew, like I don't think there's one way to skin it. It's like you're throwing multiple ingredients in and figuring it out over time. But you have to know where the numbers were and where they're going and you have to understand the way the market's going to move. So I would say, you know, it's less math for me and it's more market and more feel of what's going on. 

47:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's funny that you mentioned there's more than one way to skin it. Just because in the office this morning you can't say that we were. We were talking about how PETA hates these types of things and I don't know if there's an alternative to that one, but we were looking at some of the recommendations. How hard did I laugh at the one. To kill birds with one stone. 

47:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Kill two birds with one stone. They instead are now recommending that you say feed two birds with one scone, Best one man. Okay, Are they male birds? 

47:51 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
or female birds, nevermind, let Best one man. Okay, all right. Are they male birds or female birds? 

47:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Never mind, let's not even go into that, I don't know. But basically, yeah, they released like I mean, I don't think this is new, obviously no, this has been around for years. 

48:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I heard this many years ago of like PETA is upset with all these. You know, beat a dead horse. They don't want you saying beat a dead horse. They want you to say feed a fed horse instead, which you know take home the bacon, like it's now. 

48:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Take home, take home the bagel take home the bag, bring it home. 

48:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The bagel. 

48:23 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Well you notice I stopped short. I said skin it. I didn't even go to, I didn't even cross that bridge because I stopped myself. 

48:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There you go. You're a seasoned pro. I'm the guy that's gonna get in trouble with pita for even bringing it up, but I did find those hilarious and I just can't believe it came up. I mean, I can believe it, but, um, I do want to talk a little bit about. So you're very adamant about just getting the best of the number, which I think both myself and johnny highly agree with. Um, even if you don't like that side in the game, being able to get down on that before it moves gives you opportunities to do a lot of things, whether that's play back on the other side, hold the position. There are so many things you can do. 

49:03
I think this is kind of topical because there was a tweet that I noticed yesterday. It came from Sharp Clark NFL on Twitter. Josiah sharp, I've I heard him on the props and hot hops podcast before. I don't know much about him, to be completely honest with you. No, it's not a criticism of him, but this was the particular tweet. Obviously, closing line value matters and you always want to get the best of the number, but last night and he's referring to Mondayay night football was an example of why it's not what defines a good bet if that game opened rams plus three and closed rams plus one and a half, the plus three was always a bad bet. The closing line wouldn't have changed that. I understand what he's trying to say. I don agree. I'm curious what your thoughts are. That because the point is that San Fran rolled the Rams in the game, right you? You've now seen San Fran kill them. How can you say plus three was a good bet after knowing what the outcome was? I'm curious what your thoughts are there. 

50:07 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
It's not a bad bet. I think he lost me. A bad bet If you're constantly grabbing three, which I don't need to understand or I don't need to explain is the most common landing number in the NFL right the field goal 27, 24, 17, 14, 21, whatever. That's the most common landing number in the nfl. So if you can constantly grab three with a team that goes off plus one and a half, that is not a bad bet. But there's a difference between good bet, bad bet and right bet, wrong bet like I have made hundreds of good bets that lost. Plus three when a game closes one and a half is a good bet. Now it may be the wrong result and it may not win, but I I can't. I can't sit here and let somebody who's lecturing that plus three was a bad bet Like. It might have been the wrong result, but if you were able to get three in an NFL game that closed one and a half, how many people beat the line in the NFL? I mean 30%, maybe. 

51:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And how many people are beating the line, like at full limits, at close? Like we had Chris Bennett, who manages NFL trading at Circa, on the show and we asked him that question and he said there's about a handful of people at Circa that can bet into full limits and win on the NFL. So I think it's like I'm not calling Sharp Clark here, josiah Clark, a narcissist that's not what I mean to say, but I think it's sort of a narcissistic tweet in the sense of like, yeah, like I knew what was going to happen in this game. Screw the market, like the market doesn't matter in this spot. They were completely wrong about it. And I don't agree because you have like a, an intellectual group of people that are essentially moving the number and the sports book is reacting to what they know. 

52:08
Bettors are right Circa, chris Pinnacle, all the market move, like all the market makers in terms of sports books are saying okay, we like, we have all these bettors that like the Rams at three, we're now gonna move off of that. We're gonna move to two and a half, we're gonna move to two. We like the Rams at three, we're now going to move off of that, we're going to move to two and a half. We're going to move to two, we're going to move to one and a half. And yes, it can be you against the market. You might occasionally win, but for me it's if I'm if I'm a sportsbook trader, I am way more concerned about the guy who bet, or girl who bet, the Rams plus three, then whoever bet the 49ers minus one and a half at close well. 

52:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What also people don't realize a lot is the closing line is exactly as it sounds. Closing line meaning that was the last possible line you could get before the game started, and once the game starts it's a whole new thing now. So you bet up until the game started. The line from mond Monday is the same bet as the game as the bet from 12 pm Eastern on Sunday. Right, those are the same bet because the game hasn't started yet. As soon as the game started, one second in. 

53:13
Now information is now there that is different and that closing line is no longer applicable. So that's why I hear people say sometimes like oh, I got the. So if there's like Green Bay Packers minus seven, they go down seven. Nothing to the Patriots. And they're like I got Green Bay minus one and a half. Amazing closing line value. You didn't get closing line value. You bet a new game. Now you bet a new thing. They were down seven. So when we're looking at like was it a good bet? You could judge whether it's a good bet or not based on where the line closed. That was all the info you had at the time. As soon as the game starts and some performance starts coming in. It's now a new thing. The result of that game has pretty much. I know it's impossible to understand. It sounds dumb to even say it. The result of that game has absolutely zero impact on whether that was a good or a bad bet. In this scenario, the plus three was an incredible bet that is going to win in the long run. 

54:08
The minus one and a half is a coin at minus 10 is going to lose in the long run and there's nothing else to it and it's. I don't really. It sounds dumb. Well, it depends like for for me it's. 

54:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the market that we're talking about here. Right, this isn't betting some like european, you know handball game, where it's like 200 limits. We're talking about sportsbooks that are taking six figure bets at the time of close right and I I, there seems to be like uh, you know, there's the, the clv stands, like myself, and then there's the non-clv people who think that they have an edge over clothes. My whole argument would be like there's so many people that come out to me on a regular basis and they're like well, you know, I'm beating, I'm beating nfl every week and I bet on sunday mornings. It's like then, why don't? Why aren't you living on a yacht, like at this point, because you can bet as much money as you want on this? Either you're not confident enough to do that or you're actually not doing that. So I, I, that that's where I come in on it. But well, if you also had. 

55:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh sorry, I'll let sam speak in a second, he's the guest here. But if you have it at um, like let's say you're, you're betting into the closing line, when people give the point spread, it ends up being a little bit more confusing for people. But if you, I wonder if the guy would have said the same tweet in regards to the money line, for example. I'll give you an example here. I bet the Rams at plus 200, and it closed at plus 120. The plus 200 was always a bad bet. It's like really, though, because you could have probably got San Fran at minus 140 at close, and now you literally had a 60 cent arm where you could just have bought out of that position and made a significant percentage of money. 

55:45
So when we're looking at, like the, the money line, I think it changes stuff a little bit. It's like oh well, of course the rams must have been a good bet. I would. I got so much better odds. But with the spread they don't see it as much because they're like ah, what are the chances of a middle? The yada, yada, yada, it's not guaranteed money, agreed but there's also more than one way to peel the potato here. 

56:05
And that is the reference that we got to be making here. 

56:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But back to Sam, is that the official PETA one? It is. There's more than one way to peel a potato. It is. It was looked up. 

56:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There is more than one way to peel the potato there, really isn't, though, like who's peeling a potato with any like. 

56:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, you could use a knife. 

56:31 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
I a potato with any like well, you could use a knife, I guess you could peel. There's more than one like appliance to peel the potato. You can. You can use your teeth. I usually use a machete to uh, peel my potatoes. Actually, look the minus one and a half on san fran, I think, is it's a good bet, like if you're gonna take, if you're gonna lay one and a half with a game that you know open three, like I. I get that side of it, but I I hate two things about the argument plus three is never a bad bet in a game that closes one and a half and I also hate the hindsight shit like for this. I'm assuming this person tweeted this after the game and probably said nothing before the game, which again, they picked san fran. 

57:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so, um, you know I don't want to misspeak here I don't, actually I'm not fully confident in what Josiah Clark does. I believe his picks are behind the paywall for the company that he works for. I do think that he made it like apparent at the beginning of the game that he really likes San Fran. So it's not pure results-based analysis, but it somewhat is. 

57:25 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
CLV, though, is an issue for a lot of people, and I pulled up one of my tweets from September of 2021. I went after one of my favorite content creators that will remain nameless. He was bragging about a Cardinal Super Bowl bet that was placed at 44 to 1. And after, let's see, two weeks in the NFL, he quoted said bet and said y'all thought I was absolutely crazy for making this bet, got a ton of hate for it, among the most I've ever received for a futures bet. I know it's early, but expecting some solid CLV here next week and I'm thinking to myself wait a a minute. How do you get clv after two weeks of the nfl season on a conference betting market or a super bowl betting market that doesn't close until january or february? So that's the other part, like people just throw those letters around like they know what's going on and you can't get closing line value on a conference betting market after week two. 

58:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you could get closing value in a conference betting market if you bet it on monday morning and you're like I bet this at uh 18 to 1 and by the end of the day no shop had higher than 10 to 1. But before any games are played, as soon as one more game plays, that team wins again. You don don't have close on value. Just your bet started already. Exactly, you're up seven, nothing, that's all it is. You got the first touchdown, that's it. 

58:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I mean at the end of the day, like there are scenarios where you do make a bet like that, which is Cardinals 44 to one they went on the year. That allows you to do a lot of things right at that point. If you can find a no market on the cardinals to win the super bowl, potentially at that price, you can are about, so you've done something there. You can choose to pocket it, you can choose to add more to the portfolio as like a hedge against the cardinals if you believe that there's other teams that offer value now because maybe the cardinals are inflated in market. But overall, I mean it is a relatively small market too when we're talking about like NFL futures, that's not to say you can't get a bunch down, you can. But relative to like the main markets it's different. 

59:33
And I mean the thing that triggers me the most is the, I guess, sort of the reverse line movement aspect of sports betting, because it completely dismisses the notion of the closing line value, right, I mean it's essentially waiting for the whole market to move, to get to a spot and then saying, okay, sharps are on this, I'm gonna bet it, but you've, you're betting it after they've already moved it like. 

59:58
I think it's dismissing one of the most important principles of sports betting, which you're adamant about, sam, which is just like like get the number before it moves. Like that to me is just the most important. And like put your biases of the team aside. If you can successfully do that, you have all sorts of options available to you right before game time as well. Like I said, you can hold the position, you can get out of it, you can do whatever you want. Sometimes you can try to middle a position if you do that Right. So I think, ultimately, people would be better served to just like forget about thinking what's going to happen in the game and more served to just understand where the line is going to go in Detroit. 

01:00:47 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Detroit opened up six at home and I missed the plus six because I was doing something. And then it went to five and, you know, I started to see it trending down and before it got to four and a half I was able to get some five. Now, look, I missed the six. I understand that. But then there was an issue where we didn't know who was going to be playing for Detroit. 

01:01:02
You know, st Brown was on the injury report, didn't look good. Deandre Swift was on the injury report At that point. Hawkinson was on the injury report and he wasn't sure if he was going to play. They had the left guard and the center on the injury report, so the report was not getting better and I thought, all right, well, I'm going to take some five and some four and a half that game and some four and a half. That game goes off three and a half. Did I get the six? No, but I was able to sort of understand that, look, this thing is trending in the wrong direction and even though I missed the six, I could take some five and some four and a half before it crashes through four. 

01:01:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, exactly, I want to talk to you about chicken dinner a little bit as well. 207 episodes in the book highly impressive. As someone who has done a third of that number, I have mad respect for that. Speaking from myself here, not on behalf of Johnny, I do find that with each passing episode not the guest episodes per se, but ones that are like more topical for us becomes harder and harder to come up with topics for these. 

01:02:06
Um, do you have the same issue that we do in terms of, like your, your, three times more episodes than we have? Um, from a topical perspective, do you find that, um, you're either like rehashing old things I know you do a lot of current stuff as well and you build that in but is it challenging for you to continue that? And then, honestly, very personal question but is it something that you still enjoy doing? Because I know a lot of people that we've talked to before, um, maybe not actually on the show, but off air in the sports betting content space are like I love this for the first, like one or two months, and now I just like it's a commitment, it's an obligation for me now and I don't have the same funds, so curious how you feel about it. You don't have to answer. I mean, if it's an uncomfortable question, no problem, but I'm genuinely interested in the response. 

01:02:55 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
I'm an open book, I'm not hiding shit. So let me give you the first thing that came to my head. The most frustrating thing about Chicken Dinner is that it's a one-stop shop, and what I mean by that is that I build the rundown, I host it, I edit it, I upload it, you know, publish it, make the write-up. So you know people think because it's a 35 to 45 minute episode, it only takes an hour. But the entire process and if I have a guest, I have to edit the guests too, and usually I do 25 minutes of myself and then 15 to 20 with a guest, so it takes me three times the guest. So if it's a 20 minute spot, it takes me 60 minutes to clean it up and edit it and fix the audio. So a 45 minute podcast takes me personally about four hours. That's the maddening part about it, but it means so much to me because it's mine. 

01:03:48
And remember Rob, you know Joe Ostrowski and I started that in Chicago back in 2016. And that was at a point when you couldn't talk gambling in Chicago on the radio. I was at WGN, joe was at the score. I remember I got in trouble for giving the point spread to a Bears game. One time I was like, oh, the Bears are a three-point favorite in Nashville, jay Cutler's probable Kyle Long is questionable, as he always was, and the total's 41. My boss is like, hey, we don't give the point spread. So we started that show because we love gambling and there was nothing in Chicago to listen to. So that show got me to Vegas, to VEASAN, and that show sort of set everything up. So I just I love doing it because it's it's something that I've done for so long. The frequency has cut down. As you know, when I didn't have a job after I quit VEASAN, I was doing it five times a week and that was insanity. Now I do you know, if I'm lucky, two a week, but I try and hit at least one a week. 

01:04:47
The topics I try and keep current, like the episode that drops today with Dave Sharapan. We talked about betting on the World Series and there are some markets that allow you to do the exacta boxes or the exactas. Like I can go Dodgers over Guardians at 50 to one, I can go Guardians over Dodgers at 70 to one, and we're explaining. You know how do we have edges on these certain teams in this certain market, but in football season the job does itself. You know, tuesday, wednesday episode, you sort of recap the week that was and then by the weekend you're getting into the handicapping and the picking. 

01:05:20
But then there's topics of the day like some stupid post from a sports book, or you know BR betting chasing around some squid that made a $10 parlay to win 74K and he is not made for the content game. You know you can have fun with that, like, okay, this person made a $10 bet, 12 legs to win 74K and they followed him around like he was a rock star and he wasn't. You know, to me that was funny. The guy wasn't, he wasn't entertaining at all. So I'm going to have a little fun with that, like I go all right. Well, that part was cool. They put him up at Circa and you know they gave him VIP. However, the crew he was with was not cool, you know. So I had a little, if you will. 

01:06:10
They want to know how you're thinking. They want to know what's going on between the years. They want to know what we think about football games and basketball games, or they're driving trucks overnight. They don't have the time to sit at the screen like we do or handicap like we do, and they rely on us to inform and educate them. But if you're doing a podcast, it has to be entertaining. So you know, I like to ride the roller coaster, if you will from time to time. But yeah, I love it. I want to do it as long as I can. I don't know where it's going to be in three, five years, you know, but I know that I own it and I know that I know that I have total creative authority over it. So that's why I love it, because I can't. I can't go off the handle on Nessun or on Fox, but I can on Chicken Dinner and that's why it's my baby. 

01:07:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, I completely get it. It's just a different outlet where you can be you and I think people, I think people really enjoy circles off because they see like a side of myself and Johnny as just just us, like you know, and and I think that's why, like, a lot of lifestyle content is picking up on YouTube. I'm not even seeing in the sports betting space could be anything right Like just two guys out on the golf course 40 minute YouTube video of them recording their round and just chatting in between each hole and on the green, and people just like to, you know, resonate with another person and I think that that's, you know, compelling content. So I completely understand that. Before we wrap up with you, sam, I have to bring up the bartender. For those that don't know out there, if you do follow sam on twitter at sp shoot, every week, um, he tweets out a pic from the bartender with a, a bottle of liquor attached to the. But basically, like the bartender is he's, he's loving this game. 

01:08:02
This week, um, and it's become like a thing picks up a lot of steam where you know people don't want to be on the same side as this guy. You fade him, you fade him. He's like our office version of Luke, even though Luke's coming in a little bit hot lately. But as some you know I got to say I've seen a few people question his real existence, so I need you to speak on that. Can you confirm that he is indeed a real person? Where do you know him from, or her, if they exist? And generally I always preach that it's not a good idea to fade someone in the long run, because most coin flippers are exactly that they're just going to juice out. There are some very rare exceptions that over a long period of time somehow, you know, for some reason or another, just end up being fades that you can be profitable against. Are you confident enough that when you get a pick from the bartender, you will bet the opposite side every time? 

01:09:01 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Okay, well, a lot to unpack here. Number one the bartender is a real person. He attends bar at a place that I used to work at in Chicago. When I left VEASAN I had to get a job and at that point I was teaching class and I was working Sunday nights at this bar on Roosevelt and Halstead and we had one of our I guess he was one of our bosses who looked apart, you know, like tacky watch Irish Tam, you know, just can't pick a winner, and I would be sitting there on Sundays and I would. He'd have the newspaper open and he'd be looking at the, the odds in the Sun Times, and he would circle like two games and I would always I'm not kidding I would go into the trash because he would throw the paper out. I would go into the trash to see what he had circled and it was always, you know, packers minus one on the road. 

01:09:55
Or you know, the dog getting six and a half, like the dog that just pulled the upset last week is now getting six and a half on the road and he's on the public dog. So he's either on the square favorite or the public dog. You know, 90% of the time. And I just started going. You know what? I need to know who you like. Like I'm going to start texting you. He didn't answer the text. So I would physically go to the bar on Saturday it wasn't far from where I lived and I go what do we like tomorrow? And then he'd just start going and going and going, and then he'd always go. 

01:10:29
But the one I really love and I I'd like grab the table, I'd like perk up. He's like I love the Lions getting 12 and a half or whatever, and they'd lose 31 to 6 or whatever. So the ones that he really loved was the beginning of the bartender I remember he loved the Chargers were getting you know, seven and a half on the road at New Orleans or whatever, and Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns or something like that. So that's how it started. He went 11 and 23 in his first season, which is impossible to keep up. I think we all know that eventually you're going to regress the right way. Um, the second year he was 24 and 27 and all time. Right now he is 39 and 54. So I do that quick math 39 divided by 93, he's just over 41, almost 42 profitable fade at this point? 

01:11:20
yes, very profitable I mean, that's historically historically but yes, it's not the largest sample size. 

01:11:27
You know it's only 93 games, but of the 93 games, like I can sit here and probably count on two hands how many times he was on the right side. You know, like he never beats the line. Um, he loves the, the prime time bailouts. Like sund, he bailed out. He goes oh shit, it's Brady and Mahomes. I'm going over and look, did he know Tampa was going to fumble the opening kickoff and change the whole game? No, he saw Brady Mahomes and bet the over in a game that opened 48 and closed 46. So he's a gem. I've said this the day he dies will be very sad for a lot of people, even though they've never met him. But he's a good dude. Just can't pick a winner and he will text. He knows who he is. He understands that. He's got a role now in the show. 

01:12:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I was going to ask that, whether or not he was aware. 

01:12:21 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
He knows, yeah, he knows, and if you're ever in chicago, I will take you to to meet this legend. I promise you that he's just. He's the best and you never know. Unfortunately, you never know when they're coming. Sometimes it's a saturday morning, sometimes it's a saturday night, sometimes it's an hour before kickoff. Like you never know. But we were sitting there, I was back in chicago. 

01:12:44
Long story short, he came out with a banger lost by two touchdowns and we're sitting at the bar and he's working and the niners had just beat the bear, or the bears had just beat the niners the following week, the previous week. So the bears are one and oh, and they were getting 10 and a half in green bay and out of nowhere he just goes. I love the Bears tonight and I go. I drop my shit and I'm like uh-oh, I got to pull the phone out and tweet out Bears plus 10.5. Rogers and company took care of business. He's just the ultimate impulse wrong side gambler and I think it's one of the best bits on gambling Twitter. He's basically the spirit animal of tortellini, the tortoise, if you will. 

01:13:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If tortellini was a bartender, this is that guy I'm pretty sure, uh, guys like this, they have like some sort of immaculate ability to just pick losers. I would. You know. It's like when tortellini went against ben the better in the handicapping contest and all these sportsbooks started posting odds and they made tortellini like a small favorite and he got bet up to like minus 170 I literally a coin flipping tortoise and I would have made him a favorite over ben as well at the time, and I feel like the bartender is lumped into that, that mix as well. But, um, that sam, that Sam. I really appreciate the time today. Uh, we close with the same question to every single one of our guests. If you could go back five years and talk to a previous version of yourself, what piece of advice would you give to your former self? 

01:14:18 - Sammy P - Chicken Dinner Podcast (Guest)
Hmm, five years ago 2017, I'm getting ready to move to Vegas and have my entire world rocked by people that I thought I trusted. I would say, well, the first tip is to not, unless you have it in writing, it ain't real. That's first. That's what I would tell myself first and foremost. That's what I would tell myself first and foremost. Second would be to save more money, cause I had some tough times out in Vegas when I was making like $45,000 a year, and that was that was tough to get by out there, for sure. But I would say it would be to keep your friends close. Keep the ones you don't trust somewhat even closer, but remember people that have helped you out. 

01:15:05
You know, I remember when I moved out to Vegas, I was having some tough times. I was running with some crowds that weren't right and not keeping in touch with people that loved me and cared about me. Not to get like sentimental, emotional here, but remember who's got your back and remember who's in your corner and the rest will take care of itself. So that was a couple of different things. Bingo, bingo, bongo, but get it in writing, I guess is important. Save some money, if you will, and remember the people that love you, support you and that are in your corner, because, at the end of the day, that's the most important thing that we have in life. 

01:15:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Three pieces of advice. You could say Sam fed three birds with one scone right there. You could say that Sam Panijatovic. You could follow him on Twitter at SP Shoot. You can watch him as a betting analyst on Nessun. You can read his stuff at Nessun at Fox Sports and he is the host of a great sports betting podcast, Chicken Dinner. I highly, highly encourage anyone to check that out. Just subscribe to it on Spotify, like I do, and you'll get an alert anytime it goes live. For those who are enjoying the comment on the content on the Hammer Betting Network, please check us out at thehammerbet. Subscribe, like the podcast as well. This has been episode 71 of Circles Off. We'll catch everyone next week.