00:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Welcome to circles off here on the hammer bedding network episode number 72. I have a few, but I prepped for this. I was gonna put you on the spot. 

00:19 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
I think I have one off the top of my head, patrick Hornquist. 

00:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Maybe 72. Maybe 73. 

00:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm looking it up now. 

00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's tough. I have none right now. 

00:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So there is a hockey player. Hornquist did wear 72 when he was with the Penguins Wow, nice Now wears number 70. Sergey Bobrovsky wears 72 in goal In the MLB, Xander Bogarts wears 72. But what I was looking forward to is there's actually this will be the answer to a trivia question. If anyone ever wants to ask their friends, it can be impossible to guess unless you have like some sort of crazy memory. There's only one player to ever wear the number 72 in NBA history. That player was Jason Capono. Jason Capono, no way. 

01:11
The only player to ever wear 72. That guy had a smooth stroke. 

01:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What did he win? Two back-to-back three-point shootouts. 

01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That guy was an electric three-point shooter. 

01:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He won, though right, he won the three-point shootout, did jason? I don't know, I don't know, am I just making this up? There's no way, I just made that up, that jason capone oh he. 

01:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, he definitely was in the three-point contest, like every year when he was a pro. Basically, I'm sure he won one. I just don't have an. I'm getting old. I'm like losing my memory. I can't remember these things like I used to when I was younger. 

01:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did he win this? 

01:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Did Jason? All right, let's get on with the episode. Did Jason Capone I need to know this, though I think he did Win a three-point shootout? I love everyone who tunes in to watch us. Just Google on the spot. Yeah, he did. He won the contest back-to-back years while playing with the Raptors and the Heat. 

02:03 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Yeah, 2000. Yeah. 

02:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I believe he was on the Raptors, both of those, it says. 

02:08 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
No, this one. He's wearing a Heat uniform. 

02:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, second one I'm looking at the image. Well, NBAcom is off on this one. Nbacom, get your shit together. Raptors yeah, they messed up. They messed up. Whoever did the data entry on that article? Probably an intern or something. All right, let's get into the show. Why everybody tuned in here. Rob, give us the intro. What are we talking about today? 

02:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
to hear me complain about how bad my nfl betting week was this week. Um, no, we're gonna get into um the journey from a, a duster of a better, to a semi-decent better. So we're going to talk with producer Zach today Zach Phillips at Zach Philly on Twitter and we're going to go through, when we first met him, what he was betting, how he was betting it, whether he was winning or losing, and then we're going to go through the journey. So a lot of people out there, and then we're gonna go through the journey. So a lot of people out there they think we're bsing when they're like, when we're like oh, you know, you can do some simple things to turn around your betting career. Essentially and it's true, you can there's a lot of simple things you can do. Um zach's completely documented his journey via bet stamp. You can follow him on bet stamp as well to see his documented record, which is now well into the positive. 

03:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We are going to go through that. It's going to be selling picks soon, so make sure you follow him before. While it's still free, he may be selling picks soon. 

03:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, yeah, I. I do want to vent a little bit, though, about my nfl weekend I haven't really yet what happened, bud, it was horrible. 

03:47
In the interest of transparency, I do pride myself on being an honest person. Just a Got lit up Lit. Just loser after loser after loser. I did win a couple bets, which are nice, sweat-free bets, on the Patriots and 49ers. Aside from that, the pain I endured Like it's one thing to lose games, right? See, there's people like Spanky, who we had on the show before, who they don't watch the games, right, he's just going to go check the account balances the next day. See what happened. Life moves on. I can't live like that. I live in real time and especially in the nfl. I'm watching games. I know the scores and and everything that's happening, the amount of agony, starting with the commanders on the money line as an underdog, plus the over in that same game and watching wentz throw that interception at the goal line. That was a double dip like stabbing to the heart. Essentially, absolutely, you would have won both, would have won both. So it goes from. So it's like a four unit swing. Essentially right, because instead of winning two, you lose two. 

04:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, there is some juice involved as well. I don't know any of those plus money. 

05:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Plus as well I don't know any of those plus money, plus money on the commander. So you're looking at roughly it's a 4.4 unit swing in some cases. So that's a tough bounce. That that was a. That was a tough one. Um, the one that was like especially difficult, a huge play in miami. Now people look at the final score and be like, oh, the jets smoked him was 40 to 17. 

05:20
Okay, teddy bridgewater on one of his first dropbacks it might have actually been his first drop back gets hit in the end zone, ends up being a safety on the play because there's intentional grounding or whatever. But he gets up and he is informed. I guess that there's like a. Somebody saw him stumbling when he got up, which I've watched this play now because I have an obsession with this play now about a million times. You can't find a Teddy Bridgewater stumble anywhere. So this is very reactionary to what we've seen with Tua same team Dolphins as well. But he basically leaves the game, gets cleared of a concussion by medical personnel at the game but because of the I'll call it the Tua rule now he's not actually allowed to go back in the game. He's cleared of a concussion. Doctors are saying this guy is not concussed, he has no problems. But because some guys stumble watched him stumble he comes out of the game. 

06:15
I get the third stringer, skyler Thompson. Chow chow is basically what happened to my bet as soon as Skyler Thompson came into that game. So that was pain. It was just like there's a lot more of those. But then we get to Sunday night football Ravens minus three. My guy Harbaugh kicks the field goal on the fourth and one, which, honestly, is not a terrible mathematical play, it's, it's debatable. 

06:47
I lost a fantasy matchup because I had evan mcpherson and then he just took him out of the game but 13 to 10, the ravens can essentially go for it, try to get a touchdown, which would, I don't want to say, ice the game, but they choose to kick with justin tucker who's like pretty much automatic, so that that's part of it. They go up 16 to 10. Then the bengals score a touchdown and listen by by letter of the law. The nfl rule. The evan makes fierce. An extra point is good because it went directly over the upright yeah, correct call. Can we talk about how this is the absolute dumbest rule? 

07:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like it is. That's not even the dumbest rule. There's a way, there's okay but but how? 

07:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
how is it that if that ball, if that ball was a foot lower, two feet lower, it's no good it would have doinked the upright? There's no way it was going in like that was a square, hit on the upright, maybe out, and then miss it would, it would have, it would have drifted right two feet lower. 

07:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's no good, but because he kicked it over the the upright, it's considered good I mean, yeah, but they still have an actual chain to measure where they put it arbitrarily. Like this, the chain, they bring a team out, they carry it and then the guy goes like this and that's the thing. So don't, that's not even the stupidest rule, that that rule comes into play once per season. 

08:10
I know I agree, the chain comes into play once per game and they're like actually measuring whether you got the first down based on the guy spotting it and then the chain coming out. So that's not even the worst rule. But yeah, it was. It's correct, they got to change it. I saw some unique suggestions. 

08:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know if it was I, I have, I have a suggestion. Okay, what's yours? So I this will never happen by. We're just talking like. This is hypotheticals. The nfl would never do this. I think they should close the the uprights, so they should add a line on the top so keep it the same height as it currently is and make it a box. 

08:43
It's now a rectangular box and you have to kick it through the box. So the reason I've suggested this before is because now, if you actually have to keep the ball lower, you actually have to kick on a lower trajectory. You'll actually get more blocks as well. It will make special teams, in my opinion, a little bit more interesting than it is now, because right now, like no one really cares about kicks and stuff like that. I'm not saying this would elevate it to like oh, this is the craziest play in the game, but it adds a little bit more skill to the kickers, especially nowadays it can kick from like 65 yards. You know, like they can learn how to kick through a box. 

09:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's fine. I think that's actually a good one Would definitely lead to more blocks. As you see, typically the bigger block kicks are the ones that are from like 55-60. And the reason those are blocked is they can't just like boot it up in the air. They have to get some distance on it. So that could be interesting, I guess. Yeah, you're right, special teams is not. It's more exciting when, like, a team's punting from the back of the end zone and you're like actually watching the play saying they could potentially block this. Maybe one in 10 of these is going to get blocked, let's see it. Whereas if a team's just punting from their own 25, or sorry, their own 35, they take the snap back, it's usually not getting blocked. 

09:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So another thing too is obviously I'm a math guy. I'm a proponent of analytically based decisions in the NFL, using numbers to justify if we're going to go forward or not, selfishly. This would also lower the percentage at which field goals hit, which I think would cause teams to go for it more on fourth down, which is more exciting anyways, like it's it's, it's in just an added excitement factor. So either you get more excitement on the play itself marginally marginally, because now you have like a an added excitement factor. So either you get more excitement on the play itself marginally marginally, because now you have like an added element and you'll get more doinks as well. Like you'll get the doink off the top who knows if it bounces down and in. Like you can get some more crazy. You can get the triple doink We've got the double doink many times but you get the top bar, sidebar, bottom bar you know that's going to happen to the Chicago Bears at some point, or another Detroit Lions, some team like that. So you get that added excitement. But now, because teams are more likely to go for it, you're going to see more fourth down plays, which I think are the most exciting plays in the NFL because of what's at stake. 

11:00
So that's just me venting on losing a bet, wanting to change the rules, the entire rules of the league, because of that lost bet. But it never made sense to me, never. And there's just a guy standing below the upright who just puts his head up and decides whether or not it's good or not. This is the the process. There's a guy standing below who literally lifts his head up you know full stretch and he's gonna tell me whether or not this thing went directly over the upright or not. Give me a break. 

11:35 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
My favorite part about that is when, uh, you see, like occasionally one guy has, uh, one guy says it's good and the other guy says it's not. 

11:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, that's happened before and then they go with the guy who's under that upright, which makes sense, but also it doesn't really make sense because it's it's hard to tell if it went when you're like you lose that ball. 

11:53
It's not easy, it's just so funny like for anyone to anyone who hasn't played football, by the way, ever and I don't. I don't mean played in high school, played professionally, like I never played football in high school or anything like that but even just playing like pick up football with your buddies, and normally you would never have a punt right if you're playing with buddies, or if you're playing even in any league, there's no punting, there's no like lining up. The hardest thing to do, which we give zero credit to the guys for in the NFL, is when you're a gunner, gunman, runner and you're trying to chase down a punt and stop it from going into the end zone. Obviously the ideal is you stop it at the one yard line. That is so hard to do. It is, and it's like this is another thing where I think nobody really gives the refs enough credit like to track that ball down if it's over, like it is kind of tough to see. 

12:43
I'm not saying there's that we should have an issue with this. It should just be some sort of technology that just, uh, does this, or you know. I mean they have that hawkeye view in tennis that could tell if the serve is in and out, like they should easily have this done, shouldn't need to rely on a human. But it's harder than expected, like when you're gunning down a punt. Even this is another example I use, like just playing with friends and stuff in football. When you're chasing down a punt, like the ball is coming, you don't know the speed at which it's coming, it's gonna bounce to. To stop that thing on the one is like impossible. Yet when we watch nfl and a guy like steps his foot on the line, you're like what an idiot come on like how do you step on the? 

13:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
line. It's so hard to do, it's true, but we bet on the sports too, so we have, like this expectation that the whatever team we bet on, is going to be, like, perfect, and it's never that way. It's the same with the refs, right like. I complain about the, the officiating in the nfl all the time. It's the same as betting, right like for those who bet, sometimes the officiating is going to work in your favor and sometimes it's going to work against you. There's going to be games where a call goes against you and you're like what the hell, I got jobbed. There's going to be just as many games where that jobbing works in your favor. 

13:53
Now, as a league as a whole, I think it's a bad look. When you got tom brady, you know the play people don't really realize it's the play before the roughing the passer, which, oh my god that is. We could talk about the chiefs one from monday night, but the brady one was worse because it was just a regular like there's nothing that could possibly be called on. That play there was, wasn't thrown to the ground, wasn't nobody and tom didn't even. 

14:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's not even like he turtled bad and then got like, if that guy didn't, I forget who the player was, so do I. If that player eased up on the sack, there's like a chance Brady like sneaks out of that and then throws it away or something Like you can't. That's ridiculous. 

14:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Brady was rat. The play before was how about the Raiders Chiefs one? Well, that's what I'm saying. Like, okay, the Brady one. The play before was a pass downfield. That should have been a defensive pass. Interference Didn't get called. You could see Brady was already stewing after that play. Then he gets sacked on the next play. Not only does he get sacked I don't know if people actually watch his play in slow motion he tries to kick the guy that sacked him as well and then gets up and starts yelling at Boger and he gets the flag and he literally talked himself into like brady and jerome boger. I mean he's been the worst official for god knows how long now. 

15:12
Um, the the monday night football one. So like I'm watching that live and I'm and as it's happening live, I'm like this is this is actually the right call. I hate the rule, the whole. Like you can't fall with your body weight on the, you know on the quarterback. I hate that rule. I think it's so dumb because now you're getting plays like. 

15:32
I watched the titans wash uh commanders, a replay of that game. There was a play where brian tannahill was being held up like he basically got hit from behind by a defensive lineman. It was like it should have been a sack but the lineman was holding him and he could not fall on Ryan. He could not take him to the ground because he would have fell on top of him for roughing and Tannehill like weakly shovels the ball away to his running back I think it was Hillman for a first down and I'm like like the lineman is like gonna go to the bench, he's gonna get reamed out. He's like he's doing what he can to not get a roughing the pat like it's a joke they're doing good now, like the, the. 

16:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I guess the way I'd say this is it comes from a good place, in a sense that you are trying to protect against head injuries, and there is obviously a problem with the head injuries in the nfl, you know, if you look at where it used to be. But it is, like at this point, pretty badly, like affecting the current gameplay. So like, if you can't tackle the QB in that facet, then we probably need to just have that where, like, if you touch the QB, it's a sack. Maybe now it's the QBs on touch football. Like, what are you going to do? You can't, you can't. Like you have to be able to throw him to the ground and most of these QBs, like Tom Brady, doesn't seem like the most most athletic guy If you look at him, but it's a big dude Like he's not Brady will scram. He will be able to look at big Ben. He wasn't an athletic guy, it's a elude. A sack, yeah, and just throw it away, or I have vivid memories how many times did he elude a sack, scramble and then get picked? 

17:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
big ben like I? It almost like. When I picture him scrambling, it's like I picture him in essentially world war ii, where there's, just like you know, landmines going off around him. He's dragging, a guy, like holding his leg. I don't even know how Ben did that over the course of his career, but that's exactly how I picture it. And you're right. I mean, these guys are athletes at the end of the day. But I complain about the rules oftentimes after. It affects a bit of mine, naturally, but I still watch every game. I sit and watch Thursday night football last week Denver, indianapolis just complaining about how terrible it is. But I'm the idiot sitting there watching the entire game. And at the end of the day, the NFL. We might say that it's only surviving because of gambling and fantasy, but we're all watching it. And the rules, as much as we hate them, honestly it causes enough of a stir that maybe it's actually good for the nfl that, like, people are still talking about it the next day and there's craziness. 

18:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But typically it is 100 only surviving because of. I honestly, gambling is like the hard hard cores, and everyone who plays fantasy somewhat gambles as well. But fantasy is actually like the fantasy is what's keeping the nfl alive. Man, like a lot of recreational people who don't even bet that much, will dunk like 50 bucks for the whole year on a fantasy league and then we'll grind out every single game of the entire year and listen to fantasy podcasts. Oh, it's true, it's true? 

18:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, I think we're. We're realist, I. I also think it's just the way that the nfl season is set up right, in that you wait all week for the games and it's it's more conducive to betting and, like people are, are more invested in it because it only happens once a week versus daily leagues, right, mlb people, you know, in the middle of the summer most people couldn't care less because it's been a game every day. It just doesn't feel like it means as much, right, I could never imagine doing MLB Fantasy. 

19:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh man. 

19:12 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
MLB Fantasy is the best. 

19:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the best man. 

19:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used to do it back in the day. 

19:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fantasy Baseball. I had to quit Fantasy Baseball about four years ago. It was actually consuming my whole summer. Fantasy Football I do put a lot of effort in and I do follow everything. I know every player Obviously, it is what it is Bet a lot of player props, bet a lot of NFL. 

19:33
I understand it, but the game is only on in theory. You only tie up your whole Sunday. Obviously, thursday, monday night you're going to be watching following. But really, fantasy football waiver wire, once a week you swing deals. It's usually it's all my buddies. Anyways, I'll message them for trade stuff like that. Hey, what's up? Give me this guy next week. No, like you know what I mean, message him the same day Next. Hey, give me Gabe Davis. I didn't get Gabe Davis. Man, I can't believe it went off this week. I was trying to get him last week. Anyways, Um, if you look at fantasy baseball, um, the amount of effort that you need to put in to actually sustain your team and we had a really, really good league where, like everyone was 12 team league, everyone was going in the amount of effort is so much because, first off, there's a pitching. 

20:17
The way our, our league worked was there's a pitching innings, uh or sorry, a pitching starts right limit per week, which is 12 starts. You always want to hit that 12 starts because three of the categories are strikeouts, wins and then, um, I guess strikeouts and wins are the only ones like a cumulative one cumulative strikeouts, cumulative wins, cumulative saves, and then you have era and whip as an average right. 

20:37
But the way it worked was like 12 starts is either you want to start 12 and then beat the guy and then you also got to monitor your other guys. Who you're facing be like, how much pictures does he have going this week? Because if he's got a few and he doesn't have many good pictures, you might want to actually just try to focus on era and whip, keep yours down, start a bunch of relievers and then go. So it really was like a cat and mouse game and then that changes midweek. So if your first pitcher goes out, you have alec manoa. He goes out, that's your best pitcher and he serves up six earned runs, damages your era and whip for the week and that was your best pitcher. You're like, holy shit, like I gotta now shift and then just stream other pitchers who are going to get k's and a high chance at a win. Look at the betting odds who's who's in line for a win. Then you go there. So every single day you're doing something. There's ad drops every day. There's also an acquisition limit for the week which, if you didn't hit that acquisition limit for this week. You want to add guys for next week, so you can get an advantage. You might add a two-start pitcher for next week again. 

21:37
All crazy, man. I could go on fancy baseball forever, but two starts because some there's day seven, the week, seven days, so some guys start twice. What a thing, man. I got so addicted to fantasy baseball, had to actually legitimately quit because it was consuming so much time. And then, if you're the type of person who's like sweating the box, scores and stuff, baseball is actually on all of the time. It's on every single day and three days a week at least, plus the weekends, there's at least one afternoon game, so you also just start sweating like one o'clock. Then there's a bunch of four o'clock games, eastern time. Then you have the night slate, fantasy baseball actually unbelievable sport to play. 

22:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually agree with you. I I I'm honestly in the same boat as you. I cannot play fantasy baseball anymore just because of the time, the amount of time that it takes. But like the the overall sweat, so you could, I don't know anymore. Ml Overall sweat, so you could, I don't know anymore. Mlb TV used to be able to set player alerts, like when they come up to bat. So I would just get alert after alert of like this guy's starting, this guy's starting and boom. Or like this guy's up to the dish, up to the dish. Watch all their at bats, watch your hitters collectively go like 0 for 6 in like a short time frame and you're like, oh you know, fuck this type of stuff, but um you want to. 

22:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You want to know. Pain in fantasy is when, like a missed extra point for your kicker, is very painful to watch that live Cause it's expected. But nothing worse than if you're in fantasy baseball near the end of the week and your closer blows a save. The blown save is just dead. You're like no, he's really going to blow this. And then if he blows a save, because not only does it not get you the save but also just damages your ERA and whip absolutely brutal, that's the biggest. I hate that Well that's the thing. 

23:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The thing is, too, you'll have a huge sweat at the end of the week, probably once a month. Where you are? You talked about the pitching stuff. I remember these so vividly. Okay, like, you're marginally ahead on like or marginally behind on like k's and wins, but you're ahead on era and whip. So now you're like kind of weighing the balance of like do I start this guy or do I not? And like, no matter what, it always ends up being the wrong decision like the final two years I played fantasy. 

23:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I uh, what I did was I drafted like first first eight picks, all batters, so like batter, batter, stack my batting. First seven picks, batters didn't take a starting pitcher. And then you get to the point where there's like closers and then so I'd go like seven batters in a row and then I'd rip off like four closers and then there was all like there was always a chance that like there was a few middle relievers, not necessarily middle relievers, but there's five closer spots that you have on your roster and I would take a guy who was a half starting pitcher, half reliever, so you'd be eligible for both and I get an extra closer. So the second last year I played I got risel iglesias. 

24:33
He was a closer on the reds and he had starting pitcher eligibility and then actually had edwin diaz who, uh, popped off. He was on seattle at the time, closer, but he had starting eligibility. So then mid-season I'd like you'd scrub another closer if a guy got injured, or something like that. And then my whole roster was like stacked batting. So I try to win three of two bat, three of five batting categories, and then I just roll strikeouts, wins and I just stream. I make sure I start 12 pitchers every week and I just stream guys that were like high likelihood of a win, and then I'd have six closers in, so I'd rake in on strikeouts and strikeouts. 

25:06
So I'd win strikeouts, saves and then try to win wins every week strikeout, saves, wins I'd dust, era and whip. I was horrible because my pitches were all streamers and then just clean up on the batting. But he took me, took me to. I have two fantasy baseball championships in 10 years but, with that being said, I did not win either of those two years. 

25:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When I did that, lost in the playoffs but there is so like why I love it is just listening to you talk about it the amount of strategy that's involved. Right, like most people are like, oh, it's so much luck, you just pick players, injuries, this and that. But it's like, yeah, but like there's so much strategy involved as well, like it's not just playing, you know a game of. 

25:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know, I can't come up with anything. I'm horrible, nice. All right, let's get into the meat of the episode here. Zach Phillips, our producer, zach Phillips, we want to give you some camera time here. Should we get Zach here or we want him behind the camera? 

26:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's got. He's got to run this. He's got to run the audio board. 

26:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, when Zach started, tell us about exactly like what you were betting when you first started, and like where you're betting and how, what, what went through your head when you started betting. And then we're going to get into some stuff that we might be able to change. Um, you know, here and there that could turn you into someone who actually can win consistent, consistently betting sports. 

26:24 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Uh yeah, so starting betting I was betting like $2, 5050 units, $2 unit size like very, very small Canadians that's like 20 cents for anyone who's listening from the US. 

26:38
So I was just betting like $2, $2.50 on stuff and I would basically bet like maybe two, three games a night every now and then, and it was usually if I was going to be watching them. For the most part I was probably just betting on the Leafs. Or if I was like going to be out with my buddies and there was game on the TV, then I'd like throw something up, like throw a bet up on something that was up on the TV there that we were watching, and then the only place that I was betting was at bet three, six, five. Like I had opened it up. 

27:11
I had one book that I I think I've told it on here before, but that was the first book that I ever opened. And the very first bet that I ever placed was Murray State in the March Madness, john Morant, just outright. They were huge dogs and he won and I was like stuff so easy, betting is so easy. But I mean that was obviously just a one-off and then after that that's kind of how I was doing things I would just be mostly picking through, like I'm gonna be watching this, I think this team's gonna win. 

27:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll bet that and I just why did? How did you look at seeing if the team was gonna win? Did you like look through box scores? Was it from your past experience like watching the games, like what went into actually making the pick? 

27:47 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
so mostly it was on hockey and I I just have the most familiarity and understanding of hockey, like I know hockey very well, in my opinion. Um, so I would look at lineups who's going to be playing that night, goalie matchups and just kind of determine where is it? How many games? There was stuff in terms of, okay, this team's coming in on off off a back-to-back they played in la last night, they're playing in san jose here tonight. San jose's got their starting goalie and this team's playing their backup, kind of thing. Okay, I think that the team that's on the road, on the back-to-back, having traveled, they're in their seventh game of a seven game road stretch. They're gonna lose this one. So take san jose at home, kind of thing. 

28:28
Um, that was most of the processes of of stuff. I I understand, obviously, the injuries and the lineup stuff that was going on. I understand the impact of travel or the ability to play at home, or maybe a team had played a bunch of games in a short period of time, so I'd factor those things in. But it was mostly just I mean, it was coin tossing right, so I was basically looking at it being like, hey, I think this team's gonna win. 

28:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here's my reasoning behind it, but how much do the odds play a factor? Nothing, so you would just say like I think san jose is gonna win and then just go bet san jose yeah, did you ever factor in? 

29:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that they might be like already right, like already. Yeah, did you ever create a price on a game at all? Or is it just like no, that's it. No, no price okay, okay. 

29:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And then, lastly, was I was gonna say like so all the games you were betting, would you actually like watch those and sweat the games after as well? Is that what you were betting for? Just to have some entertainment value? 

29:26 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
um, for the most part, yeah, I for the most part, I would say I would watch them. It would usually be if I was out with my buddies, or even if I was at home and I was just there was a game on or an opportunity to watch a game, as you guys had. Like one of the things that I would do is just if it was on tv. At university we had cable package in our house and it just came with our wi-fi. It was cheaper that way, so we had cable. But if it was on the TV and we had the opportunity to watch it, throw it up on the TV and be like, well, I might as well bet on this game. We're watching it right now through a little added interest, because I don't really give a shit about LA Arizona on a Wednesday night, kind of thing. 

30:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Fair enough. 

30:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. 

30:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Really quick question. One more. If you, if you had to guess what percentage of your plays at that time were parlays, how much would you say Were the majority of your bets parlays? Were you parlaying frequently? Yeah? 

30:17 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
I was parlaying frequently, but not, I would say, less than 50%. Okay, yeah, I would definitely say less than 50%, I definitely would. The thing was like when I was throwing together a parlay, there was no middle ground, and what I mean by that is I was either putting together a two team parlay of an nhl games where I'm watching both games. I'm like, okay, I think both these teams are gonna win, might as well throw them together because I think both of them are going to win or, as I, as I talked about that james harden like free throw one that I had lost the one time, it was just a mass amount of 12 to 16 leg parlay. That's just never gonna go. 

31:03
But I was like, hey, I'm gonna win a lot of money if this thing hits right. And I and I talked to you guys like the very first day that I had started here, or right before I started here, the Saturday, and I started here Monday, I bet a 14-light college football parlay $1, and it won. But it was just like those were the things. It was either mass parlay or just very tiny two games. I think both these games are going to win, that kind of thing. 

31:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Interesting. Okay, I mean most recreational bettors at that. I mean, I don't want to say the majority mostly bet parlays. That's actually not true, but parlays are definitely part of the repertoire. That's an easy way, I guess, when you become a more sophisticated bettor, of just starting to remove those from the equation as much as possible will help transform you into winning better. So let's, let's go through the journey. So you start at betstamp. You're now exposed in the office on a daily basis to myself, johnny, a few other winning bettors as well, julie and another co-founder of Betstamp walk me through like the first couple months, and basically what I'm most curious about is, as you're listening to different things that we're talking about in the office, whether that's closing line, value, beating lines, you know, so on and so forth are you processing that immediately, in real time, or is it one of those things where you're like skeptical at first or dismissive of it? 

32:35 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Yeah, I, I would say that basically what? What it was for me was a process of picking up one thing at a time in terms of trying to actually fully understand that, the best that I could before I moved on to the next thing, rather than just trying to process all of them at the same time. It took me a little bit to actually incorporate the value of, like the closing line value into what I was betting, and it wasn't because I didn't understand it, but it was because, for me, I was trying to make sure that I really understood different parts of the betting prior to the closing line value. Like if I was just going to jump into that right away, that was going to mean nothing for me, because I wanted to master is the wrong word, but in a sense master the idea of line shopping and getting the best price. And then, once I was like, okay, I have all these books, I have these opportunities, I can bet at 10 to 12,. Like right now I have like 20 different books. But it was at that point. It was okay, I have 10 to 12 books and I can actually line shop through all of these different things and I can find different prices. Then, okay, now I have that. 

33:40
Then the next step for me was and I will say this was one thing that actually significantly changed betting for me where I started to, I started to see you winning and I was like, okay, this is actually a big piece in this was, um, setting a line on the game yourself before you go and actually take a look at the lines or before actually trying to trying to determine whether or not, like you want, would want to bet it, because, looking at something that's minus 200, you're going to be like, okay, this is a big favorite. 

34:10
But if you, if in my head, I think that there's a higher likelihood of this event happening than that minus 200, then I actually would perceive value in that minus 200 and be okay with get betting it. And then that started to change things for me because I started to actually figure out the probabilities in my head of an event happening, of my own determination, based on even some of the factors that I had mentioned when I started, of even the NHL stuff, of the road and and, uh, back to backs or backup goalies or injuries, that kind of thing. I'd be like, okay, I can factor all these in. Based on that I determine this probability and the line is sitting at this right, so I'm seeing this value, and then that was the biggest thing that actually like started to move things in the right direction for me when I applied that so I want to get into as many specifics as possible, because I think that a lot of people will resonate with you in the sense that they work a full-time job, they want to make money betting. 

35:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They don't want to lose. They still want to get the entertainment value. So one of the things you referenced now is that you're betting at like 20 different sports books. Was that something that you immediately did? Did you gradually start adding sports books to your repertoire? What was basically that process like? Going from just betting at Bet36 365 to having all of these different accounts? 

35:26 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
um, I think I added about five right away. So I started with five and then I just gradually built up to about the 10 and then once, once I hit 10, it was just there's, this book has this line. This is ridiculous and I could see it using using betstamp, like finding across all the lines, and I just go open that account and then it was just. But it was a for probably a couple months. At first I was betting into five or six books and then it I once I saw the value in the five or six, I doubled it immediately and just went and signed up at five more and then from there it was more of a process of I see this book consistently having lines that are really different than the other ones or much better than the other ones. I might as well go and open that and then picking off basically one by one after that. 

36:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you ever so? You mentioned you started betting like $2.50, right? So you obviously didn't have like a significant bankroll. Did you ever like assign an amount of money to sports betting where you're like this is how much money I have for sports betting? 

36:26 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
yeah. So I put in fifty dollars that very first time that I opened bet 365 and I will say whether, as you had talked to it the last time, we were like oh, like I'm about, even I never had to redeposit into bet 365. I never did. Well, that's fair. 

36:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you actually were staking of you know not the worst sizing for your bet, so you know four to five percent yeah and that that again, obviously, like you could get lucky and then, even if you're betting parlays, all it takes is like betting one parlay and then you're, you're back up and have like a big bankroll to work with. So I think, um, it's definitely within the realm of possibilities. Most people will deposit in like 50 and then bet 25 and then at that point you know it's just inevitable, uh, that, unless you're line shopping and doing things right, is uh, and even if you are, there's a likelihood that you will go bust, at least in that specific account and then have to redeposit. So no, it's, it's believable, if you're betting $2.50, that a $50 deposit could have lasted. How much did you grow your bankroll via promotions and bonuses? 

37:28 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Not a lot at first. That wasn't a thing until I started working here, because I didn't really realize even how much you could actually benefit off of them and how many of it was available, kind of even Right from the get-go. I was always a little bit sussed out by like the same game parlays and stuff that they just throw at you, because even some of it was just like I don't think that that's that good for what this is like for the events that are supposed to be happening. So I'd stay away from those things and obviously, being on bet36 only, it was just that that stuff wasn't there. 

38:05
But what I did once I started working here, after talking to you guys and talking to some of the other guys in the office, was I just immediately went and turned on the promotion notifications on emails for all these sports books and then it would be I'm sitting there and of the five that I have I would get. Here's a ten dollar free bet for tonight. Okay, well, I might as well go and use that. If you're giving you a free bet on something, you're gonna use it. So I just started turning those promotions on, that had those and then that became a quick way to build up the bankroll because you're gonna throw it on. I would ask questions to guys in the office about finding positive ev bets to make sure that I was maximizing that free bet. 

38:45
So that wasn't really my own doing in that, but I was making sure that I was using them and then it would just quickly start to almost snowball in a way, to build up to that point of, okay, I'm starting to make some money from it, and then your bankroll starts growing quicker and then, once I added more books, you have way more bonus opportunities. And I can tell you right now, I'm maximizing them the best that I can whenever I have the time to, or I see them coming up like I'm going and using them just about the signup offers right uh, yeah. 

39:18
So the sign up offers I did have to consult with guys here in terms of what the best way to use a lot of them was, but the sign up offers has been, for example, even on bet 365. 

39:31
Once I switched over to canada, that was one where it was you get the 250 back credits based on putting a certain amount in or whatever, and then that was a book that I was already doing well in, and then it just added to that because I had that opportunity to do so, and then I'm using those bet credits on something that are maybe a little bit more long shot situations or or that kind of stuff to be able to grow that quicker, and then some of those things just started helping. But I basically tried to maximize or max out the signup bonus on every single book that I use and there obviously becomes a point where, with the rollover or whatever it is you're, it's just not going to be worth it to a certain extent. So I've just tried to play within that of my range of how much I would be willing to put into a book on any given occasion, based on what the return for me would be or how much work I have to put in to actually receive the benefit from that Right. 

40:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so let's walk through now your day-to-day process. So there's a lot of people who work, maybe desk jobs. There's some people that don't even work desk jobs, or maybe on a construction site or landscaping or whatever, and they only have access to their mobile over the course of the day, but they still want to place bets. Um, for you, I'm curious, because I actually don't even know this now are you still creating your own opinion on a game and then finding the best price, or are you mostly now, uh, preconditioned to just look for stuff that stands out and and bet it at a specific sports book, even if you don't have an opinion on it? I'm curious like you come into the office today, you're sitting down. We don't care that you're betting here and there, it doesn't matter. You don't have to pretend like you don't, it's fine. This is not an office culture where you have to pretend like you don't. But what's your? 

41:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
process. 

41:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're going to block Bet365, you're gonna get a thing saying this has been blocked. Uh, no, just kidding. I always wonder, though, if they uh, they're like you've never been shut down for multi-accounting or whatever, but I always fear that well, I tell people to like just go on their own. 

41:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, yeah, I'm on my data it's nothing, there's not nothing going on or anything like that, but obviously like if you're in a spot you don't want to well like you don't? You don't want to trip off an automatic trigger, like if zach's got a bet 365 and two other guys here have got bet 365, but they, they get that though, by the way like well, that's what I'm saying but like they, get it because you go over your buddy's house for the nfl game thursday night. 

41:54
You, you flip on the wi-fi like you guys are betting off the same ip address, like as long as that account doesn't have all of the same bets, um, you know it's not going to get flagged, but at the same time like yeah, it could. 

42:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could trip off an automatic trigger well, like the only thing is we're we're oftentimes we'll all bet the same thing at the same time. It's not like a orchestrated, like fraud attempt, it's just that somebody in the office will be like all right, how much are we smashing on the leafs tonight? Or like we're betting Austin Matthews, anytime goal scorer. We're going to find the best price and then everyone's going to bet that because we all want to cheer together, but it's all happening from one location. Anyways, we've gone off topic here, but I was always just interested in that. I'm surprised we haven't got shut down yet in any capacity. Anyways, your day-to-day betting, let your day-to-day betting. Let's walk through it a little bit, zach. 

42:38 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Yeah, day-to-day. Basically I start with overnight looking the night before at whatever lines come up when they come up, and then I wouldn't necessarily do it as much as I used to with coming up with the own line ahead of time, but I feel fairly confident in my own ability to not factor in the line, to try to think of the best way to say this without letting the line bias my opinion of the game, of what it would be. So I still have that in my head of what I actually think it should be or would be. But I'm not necessarily looking at all the games on, like TSN, and figuring out what games are coming up the next day, pricing them out and then going to the app to look. But I can look at something and then actually make my own determination. I'm still looking at it and figuring things out and looking at rosters and stuff to determine actually how likely I think that is right. But the very first thing that I start that I'm looking for is lines that stand out from other lines and whether that be it's just really off market or it's something that I can tell the other books have moved to or it's it's late to that movement, that kind of thing, then I will actually go and get on those. But one of the things that I've done is I just use a big free calculator and I use whatever the market setter book is in that sport and then I go and devig that, that line, and then determine based on the percentage difference between what the devig line is and the actual line is at the book that I'm finding right, then I'll actually determine whether or not I want to place that bet and go and do it. One thing that I actually did, and it's I don't have to do it as frequently now but I can, because I can actually tell based on just as johnny said, like you do it enough, you can kind of start to figure out what these things will be. 

44:39
I used to look at the line history a lot, especially if something was off market or just really stood out. Look at the line history of the market setter and then figure out did that book just open at that line and they've stayed there, or did and they just both opened at very different prices, or has the market setter opened around the same price and it's moved and and this book is late, and then I can start to figure out which books are actually late. And then when I go and open up that bet stamp and I look and I see that price, I just know right away, hey, this book is going to move to the what that price is and basically you can I can almost say like, hey, go get this now, because I don't even need to devig it, I know what the price is and I know in my head where it's going to be at 10, 15, 20 minutes from now or by tomorrow morning, right. 

45:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'm looking at at Zach's bet stamp profile right now. You can follow Zach. If you open up the bet stamp app, go to the marketplace type. In Zach Phillips, double L, one P, you'll see his full account documented, Plus 200.8 units as of the time of this recording. 22.5% ROI, 1.2% CLV. This is coming on roughly 850 plays. 

45:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
One year, how long? 

45:56 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Since December. 

45:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I started here November 22nd, right, so since December Less started here November 22nd, right, so since December, less than a year, and granted, there's some luck involved here, wow 69 followers. We will 69. 

46:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, he's following 69. 

46:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Following following my bad. So anyways, there's some luck involved here. You've hit some big outrights for sure, and you've utilized your free bets on a lot of big underdogs which have hit. You've kind of been known as the guy around the office who gets lucky with those with those big bet underdogs. But regardless, this is like someone who came from recreational sports betting in less than a year, just by following some basic principles, has able to become this profitable. Literally anybody can do this. It's not a disrespect. 

46:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What a shot at Zach. It's not a disrespect to Zach. Literally anyone can do this. Just want to let you guys know. If Zach did it, then literally anybody can do it. That's Rob right now. No, zach's a smart guy. He's put in the work and grinded. That's how he got to this. I want to know, zach, who gave you this winner Rymel. 

47:06 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Tapaya over 0.5 strikeouts. Who gave you that winner? You did, and we sweat it out. We sweat it out so hard. He flew out his first two at-bats. 

47:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was a nice dub. That was a nice dub there I had just gotten home, I turned it on and he was up at bat and he strikes out and I immediately get a call from johnny let's go. Uh, good winner there yeah, your. 

47:26
Your profile is obviously, uh, very, very impressive right here. Another thing I wanted to ask was how much have you actually learned from like just watching content on the space? Obviously you've seen every episode of this show, given that you've been behind the counter producing um, what other stuff have you kind of learned? Is there anyone else that you're following that you've, like looked at their picks and then seeing kind of what they've been betting or how they've been doing it, has that helped at all? 

47:49 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
yeah, I listen to you guys in terms of the principles and then I try to apply them when I'm betting, and one thing that I haven't been afraid of is losing and then fucking it up and then being like, okay, why did that happen though? And then trying to figure that out, because at least my unit sizes they're not massive and then it's not something that's detrimental to me if that bet ends up losing. So I'm just trying things and trying these principles. Guys that you guys are probably gonna laugh, but guys that I listen to a lot and you'll see on there I have bets from them. 

48:23
Um, one thing is like I'll tell people and tell what they're doing, but I'll net I the reason when I bet on the plays that they're giving out or the plays that they're doing. I need to know why it is that they're betting that, so that I can understand what it is that's factoring into that bet, so that I can try to understand and apply to things going forward, because I don't want to just blindly bet stuff and have no idea why it won or lost. And the guys that I listen to is knish and uh, brad powers a lot and I love that show, by the way yeah, we should promote it, bro. 

48:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You produce it, it's so fantastic. 

48:58 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
I produce the uh hit the books with br, with Brad Powers and Joey Knish, mondays, usually at 4 pm on the Hammer NCAA football YouTube and Twitch channel, also on Hit the Books Twitter and Hammer HQ Twitter. You can find it there live every Monday afternoon and they essentially recap the weekend of college football and then they give their biggest takeaways their biggest performers, their most impressive, their least impressive teams that they found from the weekend of college football. And then they give their biggest takeaways their best, their biggest performers, their most impressive, their least impressive teams that they found from the weekend. They dive into all those different teams, the players that are going on in them, which is kind of something that I would never even have any idea about. Part of it is just there's so many teams it's kind of ridiculous how many teams there are, but these guys know it very in depth and then they give their best bets. 

49:40
But when they give their best bets, they actually dig into the team and the line and the movement that's happened and where they see it going or how they see it happening, and then they start talking about okay, I wouldn't bet this if it crosses through this number or if it hits this number. 

49:57
I would bet this because this is how I foresee the game playing out that kind of thing and just try to actually absorb as much of that information as I can every single time. I'm hearing them talk about it and I'll bet maybe four or five of the plays that they give out on it. And then they attain closing line value and I start following those things. But most importantly, from what they're saying and what I'm hearing is why these things are going to happen. So if it loses and I've watched it and then they recap it they always recap the bets that they've given out or things that have happened they'll talk about what happened in those games and where things went wrong, where things went right, and then I can just start to kind of absorb and figure those things out going forward. That's a. That's one of the big ones that I found. 

50:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what I have here? I wrote down a few notes on kind of what Zach's been doing. So number one I'd say I'll rank these in terms of like what I think is important here. So number one would be the line shopping and having multiple books. So having multiple books if you don't have that, you lost, it's already done, you're you're cooked. Zach's take it took an advantage of taking advantage of all of the sports books in his region. Number one rule he's taking advantage of a lot of those bonuses to help grow the bankroll and he's line shopping every bet he's got. So, despite the fact that he's tailing picks, he's not tailing specifically the exact same number. In some cases he may not even. He may even get a better number than what someone's giving out. 

51:22
So, um, there you go yeah, and there you go and that, so. So zach's got already the first three steps down pat. Another thing that he is doing is tracking all his picks, which is massive because he can actually see his record how he's doing, if he's doing good, if he's doing bad, and what to change, what books, books he might be losing on, what sports he might be losing on, things like that. So that's the next step there. And then the last part is he is at making every single effort that he possibly can to educate himself on why people are betting certain things, how it works, listening to this podcast, listening to other sports betting content in the space. If you are looking for cool shows, the Hammer Bet has it for you. 

52:00
So we are now like in a spot where zach has not necessarily devoted his life to sports betting by any means, um, but is in a spot already where he can. Now I can. I would say that if I'm betting right now and you gave me minus 125 will zach turn a profit from this point on, from october 12th, all the way up until the end of the year, end of 2022. I'm betting yes, I'll probably lay minus 200 that he turns a profit, maybe even more than that. To be honest, um, and what I'd say by that is, like you know, if I'm looking to lay that bet, I now think zach's winning better. He's gonna win long term over a one sample. Is he going to win every time? Probably not over an annual had a rough couple days. 

52:45 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Did you have a rough? 

52:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
couple days over a three month sample. I do feel confident zach will win um, and I think that's really just an awesome thing to have. Is that within one year, um, and not even within a year? This is just like less than a year to this point, but we saw the change come like five, six months ago as well. So over the last one year, you've been able to shift from someone who was betting two dollars and fifty cent parlays on bet three, six, five, fourteen laggers to someone who can now turn a profit and leverage like a side income, uh, from this. So I think that's awesome, rob. Anything to add? 

53:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
no, I just um, I think I think that's well said. I mean, I don't know about the minus 200 on Zach for the rest of the year. It's going to be very dependent on whether or not Austin Matthews scores every game, because there's going to be a lot of Austin Matthews anytime goal scorers. 

53:31 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Did you see what's on my, on my? 

53:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tell me that's already pending right now. Yeah, it's already pending. 

53:37 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Hey, you know what that is, though. It's a promotion. It is Austin Matthews plus 200. 

53:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a great price, plus 200 for a goal. The guy got how many Genos last year? 

53:45 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
Yeah, max bet it. Come on man. 

53:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How many goals last year? 

53:48 - Zack Phillips (Guest)
How many games with a goal? 

53:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
60 on the dot 42, I think Games with a goal we got to look that up to score a goal. Don't say I got 50 goals last year. Some of those are multi-goal games. That's going to happen. You're betting them to score one goal. How many games with a goal? 

54:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's a medium price for some mean anyways yeah, we probably have luke walking around the office upstairs telling people why that's a horrible bet tonight yeah, overrated, got a bet got a bet anytime goal. Oh, man. 

54:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, great episode. Hope you guys enjoyed this one. Before we close it off, I do want to say anyone who actually is struggling and who is listening to this episode and says you know what, I want to give that a shot, but I still am not. You know, I don't know 100% what to do. I would like to be a little bit more guided towards that you can DM what I that you can DM. What I would say is actually email, contact at betstampapp, contact at betstampapp, and I will personally ensure that somebody from our team sets up a call with you and gives you some sort of support. And that is how much I truly believe in this. 

54:57
I will make sure, if you're saying like, hey, I don't really know how my track, my bets, how did the sinking work, somebody will. If you're coming, you have to say in the note hey, I listened to circles off, I would like some additional help with my betting. I will make sure that somebody gives you a hand, might be for five minutes, might be for 10 minutes, but somebody will. A few questions that you might have in terms of getting set up, don't ask about hey, how do I beard PPH, whatever, like, how do I do this, this, this. That's not what we're looking for, but if you really need help, hey, what's the best second book to get? Or hey, how can I like what's a good plan to do for NHL? Like, are there any good cappers or is there anything like this? We will help you out on that.