00:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
welcome to circles off here on the hammer betting network. Episode number 73. I don't know how dennis rodman has worn like every number in the early 70s, but he's worn 73. I'm drawing blank here. I can tell you a few that you'll, myself and Johnny, are both Toronto Maple Leafs fans. I find it's very easy to remember a rival's number.
00:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So Mike Ribeiro. No, what was he again? 63. Yes.
00:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was Michael Ryder.
00:39 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, Mike Ryder.
00:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or 73. Brendan Gallagher 73.
00:44 - Clip 1 (Caller)
And Tyler.
00:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Toffoli 73 yeah montreal canadians michael rider yes, I do know an offensive lineman that wears 73 isaac suomalu. Only reason I know that is I watch sunday night football cowboys and eagles and god, chris, chris collinsworth loves this guy. Man, he would take a bullet for this guy. The amount of times they they like pinpointed him on the broadcast itself was something else. Um, I'm not feeling 100 today. Still, this is two days removed from the one chip challenge, which I would advise people to not attempt this in any capacity. Um, so for those that don't know, on the hammer, we do have a show called luke's locks. Um, for those who've been listening to circles off for a long time, you'll remember we had luke from bet stamp in studio. Uh, about a year ago, luke campanella. He also gave out a super bowl prop, jesse bates, to record an interception which won at plus 550. He has not. Uh, he basically reminds us of that at least once a week at least.
01:50
But the premise of this show is, on mondays and thursdays, luke looks for a quote, unquote lock in a primetime football game, and it started with him locking away like a personal belonging for a week if his play loses, but it's evolved into just doing dumb shit. Challenges, challenges, and because luke has been a very good sport about this and, by the way, like he comes up with the ideas he so he takes it to the extreme himself. We have to talk him back on a lot of stuff all the time. He's always got crazy ideas and we're like no, luke, like you know, we can't allow this to happen.
02:28
But because he's been a good sport about it, we've started to get the rest of the office involved and if Luke does indeed win his bet, then someone else has to do something. So, unfortunately, he did bet on Thursday night football a week ago. He did bet on Thursday Night Football a week ago, justin Fields to record an interception, and he risked this one chip challenge. And if Justin Fields had played a clean game, luke would have been eating the chip. Instead, yours truly had to eat this chip and my, it's like my stump, it's like I consumed the battery acid.
03:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like so you're still feeling it two days later. Oh yeah.
03:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like big time rattled.
03:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't want to get into too many details here because you know people don't want to hear the, but like you, would never do it again. It messed me up.
03:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Would you ever do it again? I mean, I never want to say never. Well, how much would I have to pay you to do it again? Right now it would be a way higher amount than, like, a year from now.
03:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How much is it right now?
03:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know If you gave me I don't know 25K today, I don't think I would do it.
03:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You wouldn't do it with 25Gs. It must have been tough it sucked.
03:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For those who want to see the video, it is up on uh, the hammer betting network, the hammerbet. You could also check it out on the bet stamp uh youtube account. Um, yeah, it sucked.
03:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Man, like I like spicy, I know you hate spicy food, so for you, I I don't even. I had a hot chicken strip yesterday and my head was sweating so I wouldn't be eating. I definitely wouldn't be eating that.
04:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, that one chip challenge I have a have a high tolerance for spicy food. I do like spicy food, not like I like it with flavor, not like this is just it. Was it messed me up, man, I'm still feeling the after effects, like just stomach gurgling nonstop, like trying to process what it is consumed, and I took like precautions, like I had some Pepto beforehand. There was nothing. I can't describe the feeling, man. The cartoon you know, when you watch like a cartoon, it was like what Roadrunner and Wile E Coyote, and like steam comes out of the ears. That's it felt like man. I've never experienced that sensation where my like it felt like my head was gonna explode. My ears were in so much pain I would never do that and like, from the first bite I felt it all the way up through my sinuses, like my nose started to get hot. I I couldn't get that damn full chip in my mouth either, so my lips were burning.
05:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That one was a mistake. You touched it too many places.
05:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I messed up, but like I didn't want to break it in half, that takes away some of the allure. So anyways, people can check that out. I don't recommend doing that. I can see why there's warnings on that and why people have been saying like, don't do that. Um, producer zach, today zach phillips is dressed in full winter gear because luke is on.
05:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
uh quite an absolute heater. He is on a heater right now.
05:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, uh, as part of this week's challenge, which was what was the bet?
05:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
for eckler. He bet eckler anytime touchdown for, uh, thursday's, uh or sorry, monday's game and uh, if luke won the bet, then Zach would have to dress in a full winter gear for the day. If not, it would be Luke in the full winter gear. So flip the cam, zach.
05:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I also don't like that Zach took his gloves off. I think this is part of the.
05:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's got to produce the show.
05:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I understand, but part of it is we are accepting things might go wrong with the show as long as you don't delete them, I can run up and get them. Good, you're good there's a pair of ski gloves on the floor. We brought in like five gloves. I brought them down. Yeah, yeah, you got. You got the scarf, the big jacket too, you just got a full tube yeah listen, it is what it is and enjoy the day, hopefully.
06:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, you know, whatever at the end of the day, man, it's canada, it's not even that warm out well, well, here's what I'm gonna say so.
06:26 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's about shows messed up, like you know it's four degrees here.
06:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's not even.
06:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's not even that four degrees celsius, so so today's high is probably going to be somewhere, but today's a cold day, so you got lucky, zach, you got lucky. So it's it's 39 fahrenheit right now. For those who, um, are listening, americans that are listening, they'll get me started on the on the Fahrenheit.
06:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Stuff drives me nuts it's so hard to click the button. Oh, with the gloves on.
06:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that's uh, those are, those are some big gloves, those are ski gloves. Man, that's um, but like today's high is going to be like 50 Fahrenheit. So for anyone who wants perspective, zach's got to wear this around the full day today.
07:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I honestly, I would hate this yeah, I mean listen, zach's obviously struggling this morning, rob's struggling still with that chip. And then I got my own story. This one, no fault of anyone else except for mine dumb kid I am was out for dinner yesterday, forgot my wallet at the restaurant. Okay, you're gonna be like, well, it's not that bad call. The restaurant as I left, was driving home, realized I didn't have my wallet. I was like I don't have it, where is it? Check my pocket it's a brutal pocket whatever, like don't have your wallet.
07:35
You know I got everything else and for those of you don't know me personally, like I'm the guy who I've never lost a phone, never lost a wallet, never lost anything like very responsible for that with that stuff, like I don't crack my phone screen, like you know none of that, so this one hits home. I lost my wallet and then, just as I was thinking like shit, where is it? I got to call the restaurant. I called the restaurant. It was closed. I'm like all right, I'll call back in the morning. Hopefully it's there. Whatever, go back, grab it today. As I'm thinking that in my head, I see the notification pop up on my phone from my spend that like someone spent my card and, uh, they're taking it around. So just absolutely gut-wrenching bad, horrible thing. And like they didn't even use it in a more efficient manner. Like guy got, I guess. So there's a gas station. It was used, that.
08:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And then you know, I don't know if that was like a fill up of gas or scratchies or something if it was an even number, like if it was like a 50 bucks, 70 bucks, something like that, he probably just bought scratch tickets. If it was like something that's weird, then he probably just it was like 80 something.
08:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It wasn't like a ton of money but what was the sense on? It was like 40 40 you know what I wish I had it. I can't even check now because I'm locked down in my account.
08:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't even he might have just filled up his tank. Gas is expensive. He probably just took his car fill up the tank absolute brutal.
08:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Also, if you steal someone's or if you you know what, it didn't get stolen. My wallet was not stolen.
09:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I hate when people it was, though it wasn't stolen I lost it.
09:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Someone found it and they didn't return it. They didn't steal it. Stealing, stealing. It is like they robbed me and said give me your wallet and at a threat or pickpocketed me as soon as that guy spends money on your credit card, in my opinion he stole it no yeah, like he obviously is in the wrong, you shouldn't be spending other people's cards.
09:22
But I refuse, and I'm. It happened to me. I refused to say to people my wallet was stolen because that would imply that it wasn't on me. It wasn't my fault. It was 100 my fault. I lost it. I left it there.
09:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was irresponsible. No, I I'm not. You have to take some of the blame, all, but you'd like to think that there are some people out there that would just find a wallet and they would try to to hunt down the person and return it, rather than going to buy scratch tickets or fill up a car. What?
09:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
else did this. Here's what I'm upset. Here's what I'm upset about. All right, I had 350 bucks in the wallet. Okay, a good amount of money. You find a wallet, expected value money in. There is probably 50 bucks. Max. 350 is a lot, not the most, not not the least, but enough money that this guy or girl could have just taken the $350. You don't even have to mail me back my wallet. If you did that, that would have been amazing. You know, send it back to the address on the ID, bless, but just throw it out. Throw it out and don't use the cards, because now I actually have a hassle that I got to go through Dispute charges on my card card, which is not even worth it because it's like 180 bucks of charges total. Yeah, and it's like a hassle for the time I had to call.
10:31
I was up all night last night because it was already late that I was at left. At dinner I was up. I had to cancel like cancel one, cancel two, cancel three, cancel four. All these cards freeze my bank stuff. Gotta get all the new cards today. Go in person.
10:44
Go to the fucking service ontario yeah listen, I I know, to get a new driver's license id which you can't get online. What are you know what? My own fault.
10:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's no, there's no one to blame, except for me. So this would be a nightmare for me.
10:57
I'll be honest with you, because just the amount of time like first of all, I know how busy you are for one and I'm extremely busy myself as well my left arm has been messed up for like two months and I don't I can't even go to like get it checked out because the amount of time that I know it would take. Like I go play basketball, I leave afterwards at night and I can barely even hold my arm up. I've got like tingles in my arm and I like. So the time that it would take to get that done is it would just be super annoying. But I need to know what else this guy did on his uh spending spree spent so there was two charges at a gas station, which again it's.
11:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm trying to backtrack. I don't really understand it. Why would you do gas station? If you fill up your tank, there's camera right on there. They're gonna be able to pinpoint where you put the card in and then your license place right there. If they didn't have a car, just went in. You can still see that. Yeah, gas station's dumb. After the gas station ran across the street subway, eat fresh uh, you got. They were in the restaurant though subway subway in the restaurant was like 68 bucks which is a lot 68 bucks at Subway.
12:07 - Clip 1 (Caller)
Yeah.
12:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wow, that's a lot. They got triple meat.
12:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't even know how to run up Triple meat and all the cookies that they have in the container. How do you run up a $68 tab at Subway? I guess you just make subs for the whole week.
12:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like I'm going to make lunch for the whole week make lunch for the whole week, but they bought a few for sure. Uh then took it over to like a grocery store, um, and then a few other places, but it was declined by then. So I had, I'd, uh, disabled them. So I was like it was like a game of cadmos. I like disabled one card and then that card, right when I disabled it had like a few charges after that were declined. Then they obviously used another card. I couldn't cancel them fast enough.
12:40
So it is what it is. It's also driving, so it wasn't the quickest. But, um, again, my fault completely. And now I gotta just deal with this hassle. And you know what? This is the karma of the world. Right now, me, I'm the guy. I swear.
12:55
If I found a wallet, no matter how much money is in there, I'm returning it to the guy, to the guy or girl, and I will get. If, if it's like five, I found a wallet multiple times before in my life, if it's ever at a venue, I don't bother like calling the actual id on the card, I just drop it at the front, yeah, the venue, because that's like the quickest way. They're gonna get it, they're gonna call the restaurant, they're gonna go grab it. So I do that. Um, I found like credit cards before just and obviously never used them in. In cases, obviously you're not going to be able to find that person, I just throw them in the garbage so that no one else could use them, right. And then it's like okay, perfect, lost their card, no one's using it, get a new one, no disputes. Also found a wallet once and returned it to the front desk with like a couple hundred bucks in it, maybe 200 bucks in it. Now, if I find a guy's wallet today, yeah am I returning that wallet.
13:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Your opinion might have changed now because of your experience, is what I don't.
13:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Can I justify returning that guy's wall? If I find a wallet today on the street, do I? Can I justify returning it? Yes, you got it I don't know man, the world is just two wrongs doesn't make a right. There's a lot to I know that, but like I know that, but it's like I don't know, I'm not hope, you know I'm not gonna find a guy's wallet tonight, but like, if I do, then now it's a decision to be made for those of you who are watching on youtube.
14:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you found a wallet with 350 bucks and a credit card in the comments, tell us what you would do with it. I'm very, very interested to see. By the way, like most people on YouTube are anonymous, so I'm not going to seek you down and call you a scumbag or anything like that.
14:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can say it on Twitter under the circles off the cat too.
14:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Either way, I'm just very interested. I did find a wallet once I would. This was I'm 35 years old. This was probably my early twenties. I went with some friends to wasaga beach, which is just like an hour drive to the beach hot spot when you're a younger kid in the summer went there for my uh prom, post-prom party or whatever.
14:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, didn't we all?
14:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, of course. So the place to be? What was that? That that place called banana, something, bananas, banana. Was it just called bananas? Yeah, it's a club yeah, okay, anyways, the one club in the town I get a good spot I didn't drive, one of my buddies drove.
15:09
I get out of the car and as I'm getting out of the back seat of a car, the car next to me has a wallet right on the trunk. Open up the wallet. It's like 200 bucks in there, credit cards, whatever. Here's the honest truth. I took 20 bucks. I went across the street to buy beer for the day. I left the remainder like the remain, the wallet exactly as I found it back on the thing for somebody else.
15:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For someone else, well, maybe I don't know or for or like all the time would have been if rob was like I went, placed a pro line no start of the gambling if anything, though, if you're gonna place a pro line with that guy's wallet, place a net like you're gonna do 100 bucks, place to take both hundreds and then leave one in his wallet that way, at least, if you would imagine so people are.
15:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
People will call me out on this for even taking the 20 I'm gonna. It was a shitty thing to do. I agree I do have to. Like I'll tell you how big of a scumbag I am. Exactly my life situation at that point was that of like debt, poor, like losing lots of money betting, didn't really have any money to spend on anything. The worst part is I looked into the back seat of that car and there was like a baby care, like a car seat, car seat, and I was like I can't take this money, like I felt really bad, but I still took 20 bucks because I wanted to buy beer for the day, but I that was what stopped me from from taking the full amount. I'm like, oh no, I can't, I can't do that, but I have a bone to pick with you too, once this guy starts spending. Why didn't I go to the thing? Cause I was already.
16:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, no.
16:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why don't you just let this guy just go on the spending spree of a lifetime anyways?
16:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Because I don't even want to call it, like I don't want to dispute a charge, like I'll take the $180 hit. I'll take that hit, no doubt no no question in my mind. I'm not even going to report that as, like I, I canceled them and like I've now, if I have to go, start filling in all these forms, taking all these calls, whatever for one 80, that's not even worth it for me.
17:08
I agree, so that's fair. If he spent like six grand now, I got to go through all those then yeah, see this, I'm saying it's just what a bad, irresponsible move by me and like.
17:23
The point I'm actually more pissed off about is that I went to go get a new light driver's license and you have to go in person to service ontario, which is obviously bottom five worst spots to ever go. You're standing in line. It's miserable. I'm sure there's worse spots than service on here, but yeah, bottom five, like you stand in lines. Miserable is all people there like you probably still gotta wear a mask, like just absolutely yeah, it's, it's a disaster.
17:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I agree. Anytime you go, you have to get some sort of license done and you got to go to the spot to get your picture taken and whatever it's, it's a nightmare yeah, let's call it out for what it is for 35 for the license, like, and you can't get like, I'll pay the 35.
18:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I'll pay 100, just mail it to me, make it the same license I love, I loved when they they started extending the passports.
18:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was the best thing that ever happened where you could get the 10-year passport now and you pay like 60. But of course I'm gonna pay that yeah, I would.
18:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They're actually way under charging. The sloping on that for the pricing slope is like a hundred dollars. What is it like? A hundred100 for five year and like $160 for the 10 year? It should be like $260.
18:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what I'm saying Whoever did the pricing did not figure it out properly. Like people would be willing to pay way more to not go back Exactly Way more. You don't have to just upcharge them $60. So that makes no sense.
18:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But it's a tough morning for Johnny.
18:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's a tough morning for rob.
18:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a tough morning for producer zach dripped on his winter clothing.
18:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Zach, do you think you're gonna lose like a lot of weight today? No, he's not. I don't have any weight to lose.
18:50 - Clip 1 (Caller)
So, god, I hope not.
18:51 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If you work, I'm just gonna say, though, like I'm not gonna complain after seeing what rob did. The only thing that's gonna suck is like actually having to do work because, like my, my hands, like who is feeling more heat right now.
19:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Zach or or rob rob probably honestly like still it's, yeah, it's just, stomach is constantly gurgling and there's like yeah all right, I think we got a tweet that trigger we do, but one second before we do I wanted to talk.
19:20
I just very curious about this because of my mentality. So, for me, I think about karma a lot. Whenever I'm considering doing something shitty, I think to myself. I don't know if this is completely irrational, by the way, but whenever I'm about to do something really shitty and I know that I'm about to do something really shitty, and I know that I'm about to do something shitty I ask myself is this going to negatively affect my sports betting? Am I going to start to lose because I did this bad thing.
19:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, you're saying karma for other stuff not related to sports. Yeah, like or or like. So I'll give you an example. Like I just got in a hit and run, is this so?
20:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I three, just kidding. Three or four years ago four years ago maybe I was in scotland and I'm walking the streets just having a day and there's like a homeless lady with her dog there and I'm like I feel bad, like I, I love animals, I don't want to see this, or whatever. So, like I pull out the bills I have in my pocket and the smallest bill I have is a 50. I didn't realize this. I thought I had smaller stuff. I thought I like had a five or something.
20:32
So now I'm standing there like an asshole, basically Like in my head, like am I going to give this homeless lady a $50 bill or am I just going to now move on? And all I could think about was like if I don't give this homeless lady the $50, all my bets tonight are going to lose. I had like eight NHL bets. I'm like they're all going to lose. I have to do this now. So it's not even like a kind gesture, I'm not like. It's not like oh, rob gave $50 to like that's, that's a really nice. Like I was, I felt forced in that situation. It was going to be like a five, but I really felt that if I didn't do that in the moment I was going to lose. So I had a winning night. That night I gave the. I gave her $50, had a very good night that night.
21:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The rest of the trip in scotland I was just giving money to homeless people everywhere because I thought in my head that this and I know it's irrational but like what if I don't? I don't personally do that, I don't like feel like that, but I do believe in just like being a good person in general and not um like wronging people on.
21:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you do good for the sake of doing good, whereas I do good so that my bets don't lose within reason.
21:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Within reason, I just I do believe in just like doing like good business and stuff, right, so like that's, that's really it. But, um, yeah, it's all you just have to like be a good person, I guess. But yeah, in terms of like, am I gonna just go start giving people money because I think it's gonna to like better me down the road and all Also, that's kind of I guess that was like more of a moral thing as well. Right, it's like you're not even really giving them money for the sake. You're just like it's a transaction. You're trying to buy some good.
22:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed, I'm not trying to make it out like I'm some sort of good person. In that moment saw a lady with a, like a black lab. I'm like, I feel bad, like I'm gonna give this lady five bucks.
22:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I pull out money from my pocket and there ain't this 50, like a bunch of 50s and if you didn't give her the money and lost that night big, it would have had a bigger mental impact on you than not giving the 50 100 but like, and then I won that night and as I just kept doing it because I not because I'm a good guy, but like I felt like it's.
22:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know this is irrational and it's stupid, I get it, but like, there's sports fans that do all sorts of crazy shit and they don't understand why they do it like I will you know, if the cowboys win a playoff game, for example, the next week, when they play their next playoff game, you better believe I'm going to be wearing the exact same clothes and sitting in the exact same spot that I watched the first.
23:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would leave games too you have to right, or it's even worse. Like we won game one when I was wearing my matthews jersey and then I was wearing my marner jersey and we lost game two. Right, that marner jersey is as good as trash at this point.
23:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, agreed, I would never put it on again but but the thing is like we obviously know that this doesn't have an impact. Like I know it doesn't have an impact, but what if? What if it actually? What if, by you know, the universe changes just a little bit by me wearing the exact same clothes or sitting in the exact same spot. And I think every sports fan I don't want to say every sports fan, the majority are wired like this, like when, when they win bets, they try to do the same thing because they think that there's like what if?
23:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I think it's like amplified, if you played the sport too, if you played sports, like when I was, when I was playing sports, it was. It's also just the mental factor. Some of the stuff is like if you do the same things and you keep a routine and then it works for you, and then if you don't, if you deviate from that routine the next time yeah then, uh, like your mentals are messed up going into it.
24:11
So then it can alter, actually alter, how you play. So then it kind of just transfers over to some of the other things you do, like when I was playing lacrosse the one year. You can ask, goody, we won. We won provincials the one year. And, uh, before every game, every single one of us sat beside the exact same people in the same order in the room. We did the same warm-up at the same time before each game we did in the same order, going through each of it, and then when I would get dressed, I would get dressed with the exact same way each time. The guy, one guy would tape my arm guards the same way, at the same time, with the same number of like loops around my arm. Like we all did every single thing the exact same. Went through one every game in provincials, one provincials. And then, like after that, my superstitions were just like amplified, of course, because it was like I won provincials by doing this, like it. It's obviously something good.
25:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You couldn't have won provincials if you didn't do that. Obviously.
25:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Right.
25:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you had done a different routine, you guys never would have won Right Quick question If Luke were to walk in the studio right now and he were to see you not wearing gloves, oh, you got one glove on, I have to click stuff man.
25:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can't just not do much.
25:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. All right, let's get into, let's get it.
25:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tweets, I trigger us.
25:26 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad I get peeved.
25:30 - Clip 1 (Caller)
Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care?
25:33 - Zack Phillips (Other)
it's only game.
25:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why you have to be mad love that why you have to be so mad. It's a minus 37 in the winter months. All right, this is going to be accompanied by audio for those listening or video, but we were tagged by Jeffrey Benson, who is the Sportsbook Operations Manager for Circa. Hashtag tweets that trigger us. For anyone out there that sees something that might set us off, you have to take what they're going to give you. Let's go ahead and play the audio here.
26:07 - Clip 1 (Caller)
Really, I love the Bengals. Tonight. The number's awful but you have to take what they're going to give you. It opened up at one and a half and I remember talking to Gutsy being like whoa. Lines that make no sense. They make no sense for a reason. I'm hammering the Bengals minus three and a half tonight. I just love them. I think it's a good chance for the boys.
26:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. So these ones really bother me, right? The lines that make no sense. They make no sense for a reason Trap game. So I'm going to forget about everything I think about this and just bet opposite, because something's got to be up, something's got to be up here. You have to take what they're going to give you. I don't really know what he's talking about here, because it's like, yeah, you got to take what they're going to give you. The line sucks, the number sucks, but like you don't have to take anything, you can not bet. That's an option as well.
26:57 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You also said it opened minus one and a half yeah, whatever it opened doesn't is irrelevant at that point now the market has processed a bunch of information.
27:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I hate this bet, but you gotta take what they're gonna give you, yeah yeah, but like I, I there's so many I why do you think people still think this way? Seriously? Why do you think people think that? Because they can't explain, like, why imagine liking one side so much right that you just go and bet the other side? Like, do people not realize where the sports books have an advantage? The sports books have an advantage because they charge you a vig minus 110. That's why they have an advantage. It's not because of anything else. That is the house edge. Casino games have a house edge. Sports has a house edge. It's whatever VIG they're charging on the bet. So, like I never get the whole mentality of, like you know, I think this is going to happen. I can't really understand why anyone else would take this other side. I'm just going to take the other side. It's like you're still still paying a vig on a market price that is settled to where it is. You're not helping yourself in any way. I don't understand.
28:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I never will there's a lot of these ones out there. All right, we'll move on a lot of these ones out there, by the way, in terms of like trap game, like I've been saying it a lot just for jokes now, but there's more and more this is like a new thing for this year that people like the, the tiktok guys, are getting into it I know it's blowing up.
28:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So you're telling me that the justin herbert anytime td minus 800 to plus 100 wasn't a trap.
28:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm pretty sure that's it we got tagged on that one like 15 times go.
28:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know, is that in there? No, it has to be okay, we'll talk about it, we'll see right here all right, uh, blaine grisak, I'm not sure if I pronounced that correctly.
28:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um says justin herbert has thrown a td in 26 straight regular season games. Tonight regular season also, just like, just yeah, regular season. Tonight, draftkings boosted Herbert one passing touchdown from minus 800 to plus 100. He has yet to throw a TD. Sports leagues and sportsbooks are in cahoots with each other. Changed my mind. Now, first of all, I'm going to start by saying if you make a bet, that should be minus 800 at plus 100.
29:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Minus 800 was very egregious. I would not have played that at minus 800. I don't think anyone would have. If you shopped around you could have found like minus 450. So minus 500, minus 450. So let's say the true price on it was maybe minus 400. So just to be fair, but still.
29:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But if you play, let's say, true price is minus 400. Even that, if you make a bet at plus 100 on something that is minus 400 everywhere else in the market, you've made a good bet. I can assure you that DraftKings does not give a shit about the $20 boost. Oh, this was actually a big one, by the way.
30:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, but this was their biggest. It was actually a $20 boost. Oh, this was actually a big one, by the way. Okay, but this was their biggest. It was actually a $250 max, and it would have appeared that pretty much everyone, and their mother, sister, brother, cousin would have been betting this. Yes, because that's actually a solid value, like that. Expected value on this is like 200 bucks.
30:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, based off the price and what your max limit is. But the reality is I can speak from experience consulting for sports books they don't give a shit about that at all. Like the whole goal is actually they actually want people to win these bets. This is what the they're like. Contrary to what you believe, they want you to win some of these boosted odds bets. That gets you in a favorable state of mind where, like you, have a good experience of the book, like the books have retention issues. When somebody goes and deposits, they lose five bets in a row and they're out of money and then they never want to deposit again because they think that, oh it's, this sports book is too hard to beat or whatever. These are made so that in lots of times, you'll actually win your bet. Now, not every boost is plus ev, and we've talked about that before. There are boosts that are not, but for the most part, this isn't even a boost.
31:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This was a promotion. Yeah, this is a promotion in a sense that draft kings is like have 200 each expected value. Yes, this wasn't most of the boost, like here's three, four or five bucks, easy. This was like have 200, it's gonna win and everyone will be happy and then lose that money later in the week but, yes, they ended up getting lucky on this one.
31:26
It's it happens they can't just like give two hundred dollars. It's a better move for them to do something like this, because when you give two hundred dollars in bonus, people are like I, I got a two hundred dollar bonus. It doesn't have the same appeal to like spend that back, as like I just won this incredible offer that they just had. I won the bet.
31:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now I can re-spend that right now, in fairness to blaine, I don't want to throw this guy out into the bus because it's very possible that this is just like a sarcastic tweet. It could be, um, you know it, you, you can't really tell when someone puts it in writing on twitter, because the change my mind at the end makes it seem like it's kind of like a joking type of thing. But so many people picked this up and ran with it like it's, like it's crazy. Think about this from a logical perspective. The premise here is that somehow DraftKings has gone to Justin Herbert and said Herbert, tonight you have to take one for the team and not throw a touchdown Like. That's essentially the premise of this tweet, and there's people that actually believe that this is a realistic possibility.
32:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A guy who also got a $17 million signing bonus, by the way, right, so how much are they paying him?
32:36 - Clip 1 (Caller)
Yeah.
32:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How much is DraftKings going to go Like? It's the most absurd premise ever.
32:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Really. Also, here's another thing it's like he was throwing balls still. So they're like. They're like, oh, he's there in cahoots, like what are you talking about? Like, did he just not? If he didn't attempt any passes to the end zone, maybe you'd be like, all right, he didn't even attempt a single pass, but like he's firing bombs Like Mike. He had a couple plays where, like, the receiver catches his touchdown.
33:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He saw to his control at that point, of course I did for Monday Night Football. I did primetime, which aired 8 pm Eastern time Every single week for all the primetime games we do livestream on the Hammer Betting Network. I did it with Eric Eager, the hammer betting network. I did with eric eager. He bet justin herbert over pass attempts that night, which cashed easily, by the way.
33:26
So, like to your point, he was throwing the ball a lot and there will be times where you throw the ball as a quarterback and it's exactly that. It's now out of your control. The wide receiver makes a guy miss scores a touchdown, the running back makes so. Like, if this were ever to be the case, where a player, a league, like sports leagues and sports books are in cahoots with each other, like, think about that. What's the league going to Justin Herbert and saying, hey, like we need you. You know, like none of this makes sense. How does anyone believe this? And people will say like, no, you know, you know they'll say, rob, you're taking this too seriously. Nobody believes this. Go look at the responses to this thread. It is. It's like the biggest conspiracy. It's a top five conspiracy theory. Put a jfk and then followed by justin herbert, monday night football.
34:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Those got to be the top two. Right on the same day they also had uh in ontario, austin matthews uh boost. He was like minus 160 to score a goal down to plus 100 versus arizona. They didn't score also. So it was this. Oh, this fucking roar everyone draft kings is fixed.
34:32 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Obviously, play paying matthews too. Yeah, they got. They had to have paid matthews as well. This happened on the cooper cup one too. They had a they paid cup they got.
34:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They have a lot of guys on payroll DraftKings, it seems, especially a lot of guys who make a lot of money as well. It's tough, we're just getting rinsed.
34:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So on BetStamp, if you were to go to the marketplace, there is an account called BonanzaBets and BonanzaBets tracks odds boosts in Ontario. Ontario has a ton of sportsbooks, so these are the biggest EV odds boosts. The ROI on betting these is 40.7%, since they've been tracked. If the sports leagues and sportsbooks were in cahoots with one another, I'm pretty sure you would not be able to get a 40% ROI by betting odds boosts. That's it. I don't really have anything more to say. Just stop thinking that People are always looking for reasons to justify why they lost a bet, why something is rigged, so on and so forth. It's not the amount of money at stake. For these players as well, it's never going to happen. The reputational harm it would cause to the league. Think about the amount of people that would have to be in the know for something like this to happen as well and would have to keep it quiet and never discuss it ever. It's a joke. We move on All right. Mike Randall at RandallRant.
36:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
FYI, at the current bet sizing for those, it'd be $2,500 profit. Just letting everyone know here when I say, yeah, you could do, do that. There's your proof, I know. And those don't even include sign up bonuses. Just don't dunk your money at the casino and that's really. That's the. That should be the biggest lesson. Don't dunk on casino and sgp and all that other stuff and then you can. You can win, um, as long as you don't care what you want to bet on.
36:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, that's actually a good idea for an episode. One time, though, like I could give five tips of things just not to do and you would immediately like essentially become a break, even maybe profitable better.
36:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There are actually some casino promos, though I know You're going to use the free if you're getting free spins at a casino.
36:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm gonna pump those free spins. Oh yeah, why am I not gonna do that? Oh yeah, what happens if they just don't you?
36:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
got 50 free spins. You think I'm gonna get like a just don't do that 51st spin. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, they hook you in, don't do that 51st it is challenging.
37:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is once you get the rush especially me once you see those spins hat, once those slot reels are going I just don't get the casino rush like.
37:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I just don't have it. I'd rather take that money and just fire back some sports.
37:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But no, like I agree, but there's no quicker way to like just it's the instant gratification at the chino, like instant, you just like put it in and you're like okay, go dude. There's some big hands that people play on blackjack, like these influencers and stuff now, and they actually go on tilt and like it's like. They're like, I can't believe it. Like I had ace, I had a 19 and then the dealer was showing a 6 and he got a 20.
37:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like they're, like that's rigged it's like no, that happens every time.
37:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's gonna happen, like you can't be playing this. You're playing long enough. You're gonna lose all your money. Like, just leave it. You don't have an edge, it's done. Yeah, uh, anyways, all right, what we got here?
37:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
randall rant the point spread actually mattered in just three of 15 nfl games this week on the season. The point spread has only mattered in 11 of the 61 games. The winners of the games have gone 50, 11 and 2 against the spread. So this is essentially you know I'm paraphrasing here, but it's like pick the winner of the game and bet them against the spread type of thing the I'm gonna do some quick math here 11 divided by 61, roughly 20, right in that range. A little bit, a little bit. Uh, less than that 55. Yeah, okay, go ahead, that's a lot.
38:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That where the point spread is swinging the game and like they're 11 of 60 only matters if the the favorite wins but doesn't, the spread but doesn't cover, which is obviously, if the favorite wins, they're gonna cover the spread more than 50 of the time, and if the dog wins and they cover the spread a hundred percent of the time, it also doesn't point out the fact like you need.
38:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You need some sort of distribution of the spreads as well. If every spread is one and a half or two and a half, of course the team that wins the game is going to cover the spread more. There's way more opportunity to do that.
39:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, especially if the's minus one and a half Almost going to happen every time.
39:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And I will say we're not seeing a ton of big spreads in the NFL this year relative to previous years. For those who are doing survivor pools you'll know what I mean. There's, you know, on a weekly basis. I think we've only seen like maybe one double-digit spread per week, but regardless, this is 18% of games essentially, percent of games, essentially where the favorite wins and doesn't cover. That is a lot like get rid of this whole thing like. I've heard this so many times and it drives me nuts because it's like no scientific or like mathematical data to support it. But it's like, if you're gonna bet the favorite, bet them on the spread. If you bet the underdog, just bet the money line, don't take the points. It's like. No, I mean like obviously there's going to be lots of scenarios where you should take the points, the, the, like this, the the money line is just a derivative of the point spread absolutely so it's you're making the same bet.
39:59
Essentially, you're just choosing one with, like, a higher variance it is what it is.
40:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is obviously not that valuable.
40:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, next one nothing to see there okay, uh, taylor mathis at t math sports gave out nester cortez over three and a half k's on wednesday on sports grid tv. We lose by the hook. This was definitely tagged because of our episode of sammy p recently.
40:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You think so where?
40:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
he was talking about. Can we stop it? We actually should have a campaign to stop this. By the way, the losing by the hook on like these small prop numbers cannot happen.
40:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You could only say lost by the hook if you haven't, if your team covers wins by eight, and you had a minus eight and a half in NFL, where do we do the cutoff, though? Like it left for 30 points on Kevin Durant's total?
40:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay so, I had Noah Gray over seven and a half receiving yards in the game the other day. I got seven. I lost by the hook too, so I was going to tweet out a screenshot and then I was like man, there's too many people who are going to think like being serious, so I just left it.
41:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, so we get. The lower you go with the number on the stat line, the more ridiculous it is right. Like if you, if you were to bet something over a half and it ended with zero and you said you lost by the hook, that's gonna be insane. So like the lower. But like, okay, if justin verlander's strikeout prop is nine and a half and he gets to 10, I don't know where I draw the line. But regardless, these small numbers losing by the hook, we have to stop this. We just need an educational campaign that says no, this is unacceptable terminology. Technically speaking, you can maybe argue that it's right, but it's it, it's not. It it really. Whoever tagged me in this one I think they sent it to me, dms, on twitter it this, this stuff. I don't know why it agitates me, but it does. It is what it is. Yes, all right. Last one. It is what it is. Yes, all right, last one gino donati, gino, donati.
42:16 - Clip 1 (Caller)
I have actually, uh, spoke with this guy's partner before yeah, oh yeah.
42:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Nice guy, I'm telling you bet I, I listen, I can't. I can't control the tweets that trigger me and some people out there cannot control the tweets that trigger me and some people out there cannot control the tweets that trigger them.
42:28
Sometimes people send stuff in. It doesn't have the same effect on me as it does on others and I don't tend to not include it because, like I want it to be real, let's hear it. But Gino here says I'm telling you betters. Right now Vegas is adapting quickly. The public would have Miami as a favorite in Cincinnati and the LA Rams as a favorite in San Francisco. I used to make lines, slash odds and I'm telling you in my 20-year career this is the first time I'm seeing more and more quote-unquote true lines used. I don't even know what the hell this is.
43:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, I don't even know what the hell this is. Okay, he's basically saying that stuff is getting sharper and that they're no longer putting out bait lines. Okay, obviously, the whole vegas is adapting quickly. We've gone over that multiple times. There's nothing to do with vegas the town yeah, there's nothing to do with las vegas. Yeah, they're not making the lines there. Shout out, uh, shout out circus sports. You guys are making some lines. I apologize on that, but it's obviously not vegas. But I guess what he's saying is like the true line is being used more and more, meaning what he means by that is like these guys do not actually put out a line where they just are trying to incite public action anymore, which for the most part, that never existed in the past. But he is kind of right, in a sense, that the true line is being used right now because it gets bet into place.
43:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think that there's any scenario ever. So these are two NFL games from a couple weeks ago. Miami Cincy was a Thursday night game that we went to courtesy of. Betfred. Weeks ago, miami cincy was a thursday night game that we went to courtesy of betfred. There is zero percent chance, ever, ever, ever that a sportsbook would have opened miami as a favorite in that game he's saying the public would have had that.
44:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So no, if it was like years ago. But that's not true because.
44:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here's the like cincinnati's a three and a half point favorite in that game right, uh, three and a half four, whatever it is. Game right. Three and a half four, whatever it is. There might have been more public tickets on Miami, but the average person would never have bet Miami as a favorite. The price would have dictated the opinion on that game period. So really the reality is the market is moving quicker these days and lines are getting sharper, more quickly, bent into place more quickly. So from that standpoint I get it. But I don't agree with this at all. I don't like. In my opinion, his scenario would never like, could never happen. It's not plausible. His scenario would never like, could never happen. It's not plausible.
45:15
Like true lines being used, the process for a bookmaker. Like remember when we had Chris Bennett on right, he's talking about NFL and MLB lines and NFL just like sending out a number that they thought was right. Like that's basically the same process. It's always been. It's just one person sending out a number that they thought was right. Like that's basically the same process. It's always been. It's just one person sending out a number that they think is whatever, and then the market decides where it's going to go with it. Now the market goes, move goes quicker than it used to, but like nothing has changed. There's literally nothing changing I agree.
45:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is like I mean okay, this guy I know for a fact is not a dumb person or a dumb better.
45:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not suggest, by the way, any of these tweets that we get, or whatever. I'm never suggesting that these people are dumb. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. These are just things that personally bother me but yeah, it is, it is, it's not.
46:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not true, it's not accurate, it's not like that.
46:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just, you know, chris bennett's gonna have a coffee and he's gonna be like, yeah, you know what this, this game, should be. This he's gonna send it out. There's gonna be some like it's not like circa. Circa is at least taking like a decent pop on openers, but the market is gonna decide where that goes. Like it's, it has nothing to do with do with what the public would like in the game or who they would have as favorite. It has literally nothing to do with that. Zero.
46:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Agreed. Any other tweets that trigger us? I think that's it.
46:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think we got it down to five this week.
46:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you guys enjoy this show. I just want to give another shout out the 90 Degrees Pod with Kevin Davis. It's a very similar style show. He's brought on a few pro sports bettors. If you like this one, you're going to love that one as well. His most recent episode on kind of like how to avoid getting limited by the sports book it's audio only. Check it out on Spotify. 90 Degrees Podcast. You can check out all our shows on the Hammer Betting Network. Thank you very much everyone. We'll see.
