00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. I'm back from vacation in Mexico. We are going to find out if there is a foolproof strategy so that you can 100% guaranteed make money with every single NBA game that you bet. In the words of the famous Mauro Ranallo yo, yo, yo and away we go. Welcome to Circles Off here on the Hammer Betting Network, episode number 76. 

00:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
75. 

00:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
75. This is what one week away will do to you. Forget what episode we're on. Episode number 75, presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is the world's sharpest sportsbook and it's now available to those in Ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in Ontario. Please play responsibly. Not available in the United States of America. 75,. This is throwing me off now because I was thinking about players with 76, which was a little bit easier. 

01:08
75, no one comes to mind. Oh, Ryan Reeves wears 75. Reevo, as they call him in the NHL, ryan Reeves, former fellow paisano, I'll call him in the MLB Barry Zito, barry Zito. Barry Zito was a 75 for years as well. Cy Young winner Barry Zito had a lot of bad years to end his career, but there was a point there where he was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on. This was when I had no idea what I was doing right, where you're just blindly betting pitchers every now and then, but Barry Zito I, I would say one of the most profitable pitchers of my lifetime, how you place any bets on pinnacle this weekend. 

01:50
I did uh, placed a bunch of them that I watched the rams push from a cabana in in cabo, which honestly got the royal treatment the day the day before, which is saturday. I'm there for a friend's wedding, by the way, this weekend, which I should point out as well. We talked so much on this podcast before about the importance of networking in this industry. I was there for a friend's wedding who I met on Twitter seven years ago, just to put into context, like the new world Betting partner of mine had a blast, but his ceremony was on Saturday. 

02:29
During the day, I'm down by the pool and I see a guy just like with a TV at the pool who's watching college football over the course of the day. I'm like, oh, it's interesting, I'm going to do that tomorrow. So Sunday I come down after I do the pizza buffet uh, presented by pinnacle. In the morning. Uh, I come downstairs to the pool to get all set up, get the cabana ready. There's no tvs in there. So I just talked to one of the guys and he's working there. I'm like, can we get a tv in the cabana to watch the games? Uh, he's like oh, I don't know that we can do that. I'm like I saw a guy down with a tv here yesterday watching college football. He's like that guy owns the place, that's his own tv. 

03:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That he brought I'm like that from home like what are we gonna do now? 

03:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
he's like well, if I do get you a tv, do you at least have the cables to hook it up? I'm like, oh yeah, like I came prepared, I have every type of cable that we would possibly need. Great people at the cape in cabo came down fully clutch with the TV, got it set up beautiful day. But basically the Rams bucks game, which was a late game, was going to decide my day. I had the Rams plus three and like wire to wire cover and then they punt the ball back to Brady. Brady goes the whole field, bucks win by exactly three and just not even a loss, but feels like a loss. You know when you're winning the whole game and you lose that. 

03:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So well, a push is a push, live another day yeah, I guess. 

03:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I mean, when you view it that way, it's, it's, I would like, like, if you pushed with the bucks, you feel like you won, of course, because you're losing the whole game. You thought you had no chance. But when you push with the rams plus three, in that situation uh, leading the whole game you feel like, uh, you lost. Um zach, our producers throwing up in our circles off chad, a bunch of and like horrible nhlers that also wore 75. Hal gill remember hal gill? Do I remember hal gill? Yeah, what's wrong with hal gill gill with the world's longest hockey stick? 

04:27
yeah, that guy's stick was like seven feet he was the most. It didn't even look like he's a huge guy, but it didn't even look like he could that, like it was too big for him hal gill was the pylon v2 in toronto? 

04:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
he was, and if you guys know where the pylon v1 is, that would be. Would it be aki? 

04:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
berg aki berg yeah that was aki berg, isn't he, uh, an equipment manager with like team finland? 

04:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
did not know that would make sense possibly um he's probably an equipment manager with toronto during his playing career. 

04:58 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I will say how. How gill had the like the legendary tag of um. Have you guys heard of the bag chuckers? No, okay. So there was this thing back in the day like they called that some nhl players bag chuckers, and it was because when they would go on the road, they get to the hotel, swipe your card into your door, open the door, throw your suitcase in. You don't even look at it, you go right to the bar. They just call them bag chuckers that's a good name. 

05:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, yeah, hal gill. I have no one. By the way, this is so niche for for certain people. You have to be like a true toronto, I guess, or boston sports fan, montreal sports fan, but mean, mean joe green, mean joe green, he was on that list there you go. Uh, radco gudas another goon on that list. There's a of 75. I just pulled up a list of active NHLers that wear 75. Kyle Capobianco, connor Clifton, evan Bouchard Evan Bouchard would be a bigger one. College basketball started this week. You've been dabbling. 

05:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Dabble, yeah, dabble a little. 

06:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, there's so many games. 

06:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How can you not? Everyone says like, oh, all the sharps are like college basketball, it's time to print money for the next four months. I'm like, yeah, honestly, like not that easy. As expected. There is a lot of line moves and stuff like that, but it's hard Like it's not. College basketball is not that easy. 

06:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I debated this with some friends last night. Right Angle Sports, who is a very prominent pick service in the space, people that we really respect and who we've tracked on Betstamp for a long time. You know they're playing tons of college basketball right and lines are moving like crazy and I don't know like it's. I've bet at scale for a long time. I don't know how you get to that scale where you're able to get in like that much money down on college basketball, like the amount that they must be losing accounts on a weekly basis, cause it's not like you know. You put your college basketball game in an account, a total, and it moves 10 points. Like how long is that account going to last? Yeah, it's going to be hard. So like two weeks. So going to last? Yeah, it's going to be hard, so like two weeks. So I've always wondered how they are able to get down that much at skit, like that has to be such a sophisticated operation that's why they're starting. 

07:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's why they're focusing on the pick service. If you've talked to ed recently, we should have them on the podcast, but we'll give them a plug right now, for sure. Right angle sports is essentially a pick service where they'll sell picks. Um, it is not your average tout where, like, the picks have no value. These things actually do have a ton of value and we're judging the value based on where the line closes, right, so the market influence it has is, if Ed released a pick over 146 and a half, it's probably going to close at 150 and a half. Right, so you're getting four points CLV right there, which is obviously a massive value, and a quant. Right, so you're getting four points clv right there, which is obviously a massive value and a quantifiable edge. 

07:47
Um, highly recommend it. It is more for the serious. Better um, if you're a recreational better is betting ten dollars. The service is not going to be for you because it is quite expensive. Um, however, if you've got some accounts right now, or if you've got even you know, regular accounts that you're using um in the legal betting space, you know, you, you accounts that you're using in the legal betting space. You know you may if you're betting big enough and winning, get your account limited, you know, by doing this. But a one spot that's never going to limit you pinnacle. You sign up there and play there, no issues, and you know you should be able to win some money, and also on top of that. Just listen, there's no guaranteed of being being no guarantees in the betting space, especially when you're talking about the course of like a one-year sample. But, um, if there was ever a guarantee on a pick selling service, it would be the rast college basketball. That would be the one I'll be the most confident in to actually win. 

08:38
Um, I have absolutely no affiliation with uh, right angle sports definitely neither do I, just not getting paid to say this um, but yes, I I would actually recommend it if you this is one of many ways to make money betting sports would be to uh purchase rass's package and bet. It may not be good forever, but, uh, for this year. I'm confident that, uh, that you'd be able to turn a profit I would um agree with that. 

09:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This week's episode, we're going to go back to a similar format to one of our most highly rated episodes. That would be episode 62. For those who are listening or do listen, consume this via Spotify or Apple. That would be the reaction to controversial sports betting interview. The one that we did with Simon Hunter, or at least where we reacted to Simon Hunter's interview. The one that we did with Simon Hunter, or at least where we reacted to Simon Hunter's interview with Ross Tucker. For those who follow on YouTube, that would be the fake professional sports better gets exposed episode. We'll actually link that down in the description below If you haven't watched that video absolutely one of my favorite episodes to do. 

09:43
We're gonna go down a similar style this week and this was highly recommended by a few people that jumped into my Twitter DMs, I should note. We do read everything. If you message Circles Off on Twitter, if you message myself on Twitter, if you post in the YouTube comments with a show idea, we do read it. We try to incorporate as much of it as possible, but people really like that format where we're watching an interview, we're watching some type of content and myself and Johnny are reacting to it in real time. Now, myself and Johnny have our own betting content network, the Hammer. Check it out, thehammerbet. If you haven't checked it out already, subscribe on YouTube at Hammer HQ if you haven't already. 

10:27
And now that I watch a lot of betting content, which I didn't before, I get served up a lot of betting content on YouTube and I look at some of the followings of the stuff that's out there, I'm like holy geez, some of these people have like 50K subscribers on this channel. Never heard of them. 100k subscribers. These videos are getting X amount of views and I've started consuming a few here and there, and some of them are worthwhile. Did you make billions? I did not make billions, did not make millions either. 

10:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you make 100,000 betting the NFL in just five minutes? I did not. 

11:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
With these five easy steps. 

11:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I lost 100,000 betting the NFL in just five minutes. I did not With these five easy steps. I lost a hundred thousand betting the NFL in just five minutes. You lost a hundred thousand and you lost your five minutes. 

11:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, I lost the time. I lost the money. With the way that crypto is going, I'm paying even more money. Long story whatever. 

11:18
We're going to watch a video here. This is a completely random video. I have not seen it before. Johnny has not seen it before, I believe. 

11:27
I may have seen this person, linemaker Sports, do a different video, but we are in basketball season now, so I think that this is very topical. So today we're going to watch a video that is entitled Win Every Game you Bet On in the NBA with this Strategy. I'm very curious as to what's out there in the space right now in terms of advice. I don't think you can win every game you bet on in the NBA with a specific strategy, unless you are. I mean, there was a time where I was winning every single game I bet on with a live betting strategy, which was like just a complete error by sportsbooks years ago, but we will see. 

12:13
So we're going to link this down below in the description if you want to watch the original video before you even see us react, or you can just watch us react in real time For those who listen on a weekly basis rather than view in video form. I'm hoping that there's nothing in here that you know you'll need to see, but um, such as life will do our best to explain it. So, uh, without further ado. Uh, we're gonna play that, actually, before we play this, the thumbnail or the guy, you get any early impression I don't think that's that. 

12:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, just the guy. Um, he looks like you with that cabo shirt. He's got good style. I would say win every game you bet on in the nba with this strategy. I would absolutely love to. 

12:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's hear it. Yes, let's hear it. So we're gonna get into it and, just like the uh, episode number 62, we'll ask our producer, zach, to pause. Whenever we want to jump in on something, hit it, zach. 

13:04 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
What's going on? Everybody? Frank here with Line Maker Sports, I'm going to give you guys an NBA strategy today that you could pretty much guarantee that you're going to win on Now. We'll get into that in just a second, all right, guys. So make sure you guys comment, if you can hear me, comment any question that you got. I want to make sure, before we get this live going, obviously you guys can understand everything that I'm saying. So make sure you guys go down below comment that you can hear me and if you guys got any questions, make sure you go ahead and drop that in the comment section as well or in that live chat, and we'll address that kind of youtube as we're going through this all right. 

13:34
So tonight's pretty much the real start of the nba season, so I thought I'd come on here and show you guys a decent strategy of where you can kind of hedge certain games All right With both teams and you can pretty much guarantee a profit in you know, with doing that All right. So before we get into that a little bit more, let's give it a couple seconds. 

13:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, so he's obviously doing this live. I think this guy's a YouTube pro. He can tell he's like you know, get in the comments of all the all the youtube stuff that someone would typically do. Uh, he already mentioned a hedging strategy, which is out of the gate. 

14:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Already has me very interested in where, where this is going, so what I like, though, is that he has a whiteboard in the back and a dry erase in his hand, so you know what's about to get. He's about he's gonna write on this board. 

14:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He also is a Raiders fan, it looks like by that helmet, which makes me even more skeptical. 

14:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Is that a Henry Ruggs autograph? No, okay. 

14:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If it was, I would probably switch out the helmet for something new. All right, zach hit it. 

14:33 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Add a little bit more. Let's give it a couple seconds. You know, let's get people in here. We're going to get down to it. All right, guys, we're going to get down to the NBA strategy. Like I said, hopefully everybody's hyped up for the NBA, the start of the season. 

14:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like me stalling on Pizza Buffet in the morning. 

14:47 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Yesterday was really the actual start of the season, but there was only two games, so there wasn't much to really go off of or much to look at All right. So today is a full slate of games. Show you guys kind of a little bit of a secret for how you can kind of analyze the NBA and look at certain things All right, so let's go ahead and get into it. All right. So first off, let's talk about what it's going to be. 

15:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This was two weeks ago, by the way, yes, and this is 51k views. 

15:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, yeah, so this guy has got a following NBA strategy. 

15:18 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Oh the whiteboard. Good start. Now what are we going to do? How are we going to narrow this down? All right, how are we going to narrow this down to games that we can actually pay attention to? All right, so this is what you want to do. First step, this is going to be you're going to look at the slate of games and what you're going to do is you're going to look for games where the spread is minus three or less. 

15:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, Stop on it, okay, so I'm going to predict where this is going. 

15:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's going to say bet those teams on, but bet the dog on the money line. 

15:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I already guarantee. So he talked off the top. So we're two minutes into this video and I've heard similar stuff to this before. Okay, so we're two minutes into the video. I want to see where this goes up. But he already said hedging strategy at the beginning and now he's picking minus three or less. So he's like close games in the NBA. Here's what I'm thinking. He's going to want to get both teams Polish middle Plus 100 on the money. 

16:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, you're thinking that? I'm thinking he's going to say that if you're betting the favorite, you bet minus three because of the foul game it doesn't end, but if you're betting the dog, you take the plus money because the dog's going to win outright. That's going to be my prediction here. 

16:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never seen this video, so you think that this is just a complete clickbait title, then Win every game, because I think he's going to try to get to a strategy where you profit on every game, strategy where you profit on every game. But that how would you do that? Well, because you would have to get both teams as underdogs somehow at one point or another no, no, no. 

16:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think he's gonna say you bet the win, every game you bet. I think it's gonna be he's. He's gonna suggest you bet minus three yeah favorite lay lay three points, yeah, and then take the dog on plus money, and then, as long as you don't get polish middle, do you win a little. 

17:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How do we feel about Polish middle in 2022? Like it's not been canceled yet. 

17:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think I don't think it should be like what? 

17:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what is it? Is it derogatory? Is what I? I just I don't know. Does anyone know what the Polish middle is? I don't know why, like where? 

17:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know. Either it's just a gambling for those who don't know, a polish middle, uh, or maybe I'm canceled, but the polish middle is when. So the middle is when you hit, uh, um, two sides of the same game. You middle the game, meaning you took like plus plus four and minus two and the game fell three, and you're like, wow, I had a small risk bet, because I was betting both sides of the game and I landed in that middle zone where I won both my bets and I cashed both. The Polish middle is bad. The Polish middle is where you bet, you lay minus one and then, or minus one and a half, and then you take the money line and the game falls one and then you lose both your bets or a half right. So that's, that is what it is. 

18:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can't find anything about the origin of this betting term, so I have no idea. 

18:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The problem is like everything it's been called that for years. I've just been referring to that for years. 

18:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It has, I don't know. I just I want to be respectful if-. 

18:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, from this point on we will just be respectful. We will call it the inverted middle, inverted middle, sure on, we will. 

18:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Can we just be respectful? We will call it the inverted middle. Inverted middle, sure, the inverted middle going forwards is what we will refer to it, as I don't know if this is a, is a, a canceled term yet you can't find anything. 

18:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not, it's definitely not how, like probably barely anyone even knows what that is, but like that's just what it's been called, I mean, unless it was originally named unless it was originally named that, like because it was derogatory to. 

18:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what I'm saying like how that would have happened back in the day. Yeah, I don't even know what what that would have been. It was probably some polish guy that did this the first time around and it just became like that's probably the most likely scenario. 

18:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, yeah, maybe all right, did they even have betting in poland? But like what was, I'm sure, is that a big betting town, a betting country I don't know was. 

19:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know if warsaw was taking huge bets or anything like that. I have no idea all right, let's uh, we're less than two minutes in. Yes, let's go minus three or less, as this guy writes on his. We made a lot of assumptions. I hope we're not wrong here. I I want to be right so badly. 

19:22 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
For games that are minus three or less. If you could find minus three or less, then we're going to put a circle around that. We're going to find those type of games and we're going to go ahead and put a circle around that stuff. That's how we're going to start it out, because how we're going to address this now is we're going to be betting this game live. 

19:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're going to be a, we're going to be betting this game live. 

19:43 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
All right, we're going to be doing some stuff in this. It's going to be live bets, all right. So what you want to do here is when a game is minus three or less. Now we want to look at the money line aspect of this, all right. So your underdog in minus three or less is going to pretty much vary, probably anywhere from like plus 105 to probably plus 140, 145-ish. That's what the underdog is going to look like in a matchup like this. 

20:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's right about that. 

20:06 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
First off, you start here and then after that, what we're going to do is we're going to look at the money line and we're going to take the underdog. We're going to start with the underdog, all right. So let's say the underdog is plus 145. 

20:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You are. 

20:18 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Let's say it's plus 145. Now, what we're doing here? We're not taking any bets yet. All right, we're not taking any bets, not doing it just yet. We're looking at the underdog right now in this aspect. All right, the game is going to start. We're going to wait for the game to start Now. We're not going to make a bet, all right, until the end of the first quarter, because we want to make sure it's not lopsided and it's not going to be a complete blowout right out the gate. 

20:49
All right, so we're going to wait until the end of the first quarter. All right, so now we wait, wait, wait until the first quarter ends. 

20:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I appreciate that he has a visual here that happens. 

20:56 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Now what we're going to do is we are going to place a bet on the plus money team. All right, if this isn't a blowout situation where it comes out the gate and the team's not up. As long as at the end of the first quarter the team is not up by like 12, 15 points or something like that, then we're going to take the plus money line in this matchup. Because in the NBA, if you know anything about the NBA, you know anything about basketball. It's a game of runs, so there's runs in the NBA. 

21:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pause game of runs. All right, so there's runs in the nba, all right. No matter what is the game of runs, pause it for a second here. So here's what I hate about this. Already, okay, he doesn't specify exactly, he leaves it open to interpretation. I hate when, like, if you're going to give out an nba strategy, don't leave it open to interpretation. So don't say we're going to bet the underdog at the end of the first quarter as long as the game's not a blowout. Something like 12 or 15 points, like okay, now I'm gonna be sitting there at home. And what if a team's down by nine points? 

21:49
yes, 10, not a blowout yeah I, I don't know, he didn't, he didn't. So I that that already really bothers me, because it leaves it completely open to interpretation. Um, I just, if you're gonna give out a strategy and you say that, okay, forget about the title of the YouTube video. But even if you're going to say it's a winning strategy, you really have to outline the exact parameters of it altogether, because as soon as you leave it open to interpretation, now somebody doesn't really know what they're doing. 

22:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For those listening on his whiteboard it currently says NBA strategy minus three or less, plus 145. Wait till first cue ends. Yes, all right, hit attack. 

22:30 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
What a team is or how good a team is. Everybody has runs in the in that game where it can fluctuate, all right. So a team can go on a 10 oh run, they can take the lead. The team could go on to, you know, 150 run and come back and take the lead, and stuff like that. So nba is a game of runs. It's going to happen throughout the whole entire game. 

22:46
So what we're trying to do is we're trying to grab the underdog right here. We're trying to first snatch an underdog at plus money on the money line, all right. And then what we want to do is, as the game is going on, take advantage of the runs, all right. So right now, if're betting that team, obviously the other team is like minus 170 or whatnot. On that, all right. Well, when this team right here makes their run, you pay attention to that and you pay attention to the live money line on that, all right, because when they make their run, these odds are going to shift, all right. So this they might even become a favorite live All right. 

23:19
Now, this only happens in games, like I said, that are the. The spread is minus three or less, because these are predicted obviously to be tight games. All right, so this only works, like I said, in that type of aspect of those certain games. All right, so you're looking for plus money to start out with and then, once the other team makes a run excuse me, when this team makes a run your favorite on the other side now is going to probably jump to plus money. Pause. 

23:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. 

23:43
So, Perfect timing. So he is going to where I thought he was going to go, which is what everybody does want to try to do, by the way, Like everyone's trying to do. Anyone who's live betting, I don't want to say anyone. You see this strategy all the time right, Try to get one team as a dog and then try to get the other team as a dog. Now what he's saying is that it's inevitable in an NBA game that teams are going to go on runs, which is not true entirely. It's not entirely true. 

24:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What if the team you bet at plus 145 at the time you bet that the other team goes on a run, exactly true. What if the team you bet at plus 145 at the time you bet that the other team goes on a run exactly, and then the price never comes back to 145? It's roughly 50 50. That's what I'm saying. Like no, it's not, it's a little below, but like you're not gonna. 

24:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's so frustrated he's putting this all into like one scenario where, like, all of this is repeatable and it's not like there's so many things that are going to influence which team is likely to go on a run. Like for those who live bet nba successfully, they're very capable of understanding team rotations and when, like, a star player is going to get subbed out of a game and they don't wait for it to happen, they bet it slightly before that's going to happen because they're so in tune with that team. You, you don't know what's going to happen at. This, like this is again just an assumption that, oh and be, like basketball game or runs, this team's an underdog. There's going to be some point in the game where they go on a run and this is like catastrophically bad advice to someone. 

25:17
I'll let him keep finishing here. I know where this is going, but you hear this all the time. It's like, yeah, you, of course you want to guarantee yourself profit in a game. It's way harder to do that than to bet a blanket system that says, oh, it's the end of the first quarter, let's lock in the dog, because now you're just praying. You are just literally there praying that this team is going to go on a run For the record. 

25:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
the fact that he waits till the end of the first quarter is completely irrelevant. That is a funny part. He's like well, you want to make sure that it's not a blowout Like that doesn't make sense. 

25:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, on top of that, like he's saying, you pick a game that's minus three or less before the game, because that is most likely what's going to end in a close game, in a close game. But he's right about that. But three is, three is just an arbitrary yeah. What about three and a half? Yeah, why not two or less? Like he has not presented any information, maybe he will. I have no, there's still four minutes left. Maybe he will present something along the way here that says here's why. But, um, do we know that games that are predicted to be close at the beginning have more fluctuations in runs? I don't know that. Does anyone know that? Does this guy know that? Or is this some sort of random you know, like this is. I'll tell you this. I bet like this before I have personally done this. I lost a lot of money doing this as a recreational gambler. 

26:40
You lost his shirt that looked oddly similar to that guy's shirt. I wish I had enough money back in the day to actually own shirts like that. I was wearing my band like metal t-shirts and stuff like build my Billy Talent t-shirt around three times a week. Black Label Society all the stuff I was listening to at that time Couldn't afford shirts like that. But I did this for all sorts of basketball college basketball, nba and what you inevitably find is that the other team making a run a lot of times just doesn't happen. And then you are stuck on a position of like that's just getting worse and worse, and then in your head you actually do convince yourself that there's still a run coming at some point. So you know what you end up doing. You probably bet more on the side that you already bet on as a dog, thinking that, oh, this is gonna be like a time where I could really make some money here, if you like them at 145,. 

27:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're gonna love them at 240, 245, 250. 

27:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, let's keep this going. 

27:34 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Other team now flock, all right, and the other team that you don't have money on they become plus money as well, whether you don't have money on and they become plus money as well, whether it be, you know, plus 120 or what sure yeah, they end up becoming plus money as well. 

27:47
So what you do there is now you go ahead and you pay, place a bet on that team. So now, what have you did? You bet on both teams, all right. You bet on both teams. So obviously one of those teams are going to win. You bet on both of those teams in plus money, all right, so that means that's a guaranteed profit. No, matter what in that game you're going to make a certain amount of money. 

28:04
It might not be a lot, but it's still guaranteed profit and it's kind of like an arbitrage type thing. That's how it is when you're looking at a live NBA game, because this is really the only sport that you could pretty much do that, because you can't do it in football, because there's not constant runs in football, you just can't Hockey. You it in football, because there's not constant runs in football, you just can't hockey, you can't do it. The nba and college basketball are the only ones that you could really do this at all. Right, where there's a constant runs in games, to where a team could be down by 20 points, let's say in the third quarter, and they could come back and tie the game and take the lead sure, or? 

28:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
they could just lose by 37. Could also be down 20 points in the nfl yeah do that. 

28:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course it can happen. First of all, runs can happen in any sport. He's just. He's just saying this because of the style of which basketball fluctuation. 

28:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
In NBA it does fluctuate. Listen, he's right about this. I'm not going to trip everything, he. He is right. The NBA live lines will fluctuate more than in the NFL. That's because points are scored every couple seconds as opposed to every couple minutes and with NHL obviously average total being like six right now, six and a half, five and a half, then obviously there's only going to be that many goals roughly in the game. So when a goal scored it's going to fluctuate big. But in that scenario but yeah, this is definitely not for his strategy. By the way, you could do this with every single sport. You could say live bet the team that went down, one, nothing in the nhl and then when the other team ties it back up, live bet the other team. That's essentially what he's saying. It's the exact same thing yeah, I agree. 

29:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, here's the thing. I'm a content creator as well. Obviously, people consuming this, whatever platform YouTube, spotify, apple Music I'm creating content which is in an effort to help educate other people. I'm not giving away all the secrets. I have my specifics of my day-to-day, what I do to win at sports. Ask yourself this if this was a foolproof strategy and you can consistently do this to profit, why would you make a video that goes to 50K people, gets 50K views of like? You would be milking this strategy for all it's worth is the reality of the situation right like in principle, what he's talking about is right like. Yes, if you could, if you could get plus 145 on one side and plus 120 on the other side every game, of course you would do that, yeah, but might as well just bet on the team that wins, sure, and only bet that side 100, because that would make more money and you don't have to do anything else. 

30:28
Exactly you just make that bet and you don't have to watch the entire game at your computer or phone and watch the fluctuations and and whatever. But like, obviously, I think even just an average. You know it's, it's scary because I've, I've, I've consumed content like this before and I went down the same path. So it's, it's no, like I don't want to be hypocritical. Obviously there's going to be people that see this and they don't know sports. They're like you know what this guy's making a lot of sense. I watch basketball. It's game or run. Sometimes, you know, team team scores eight points in two minutes and the other team doesn't score and it makes complete sense and they're going to go and do this and they're just going to get buried because it's it's very, very hard to pull this off. And he's applying just like a blanket. You're like you know he's speaking in terms of certainty, right Absolutes. 

31:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's finish up the video, and then I'll explain explicitly why this would obviously not work. 

31:19 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
All right. So this is how you can guarantee yourself a profit if you want to bet live and you want to bet games as they're going on, all right. So as they're going on, you want to pay attention Again. I'm going to go through the steps here. First off, we're going to look at games. We're going to put a circle around games if the spread is minus three or less. 

31:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Irrelevant. 

31:36 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
All right, so put your circle around that stuff, all right. Circle it that stuff All right, so circle it then, and excuse me, hold on, let's, let's answer this question real quick, cause I do want to address that before I go any further. Sure, yes, you'd be putting the same unit on both, all right you would be putting the same unit. 

31:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a good question. 

31:51 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
Unit size, like, let's say, a hundred bucks, for example. You put a hundred bucks on here, your return would be one 45. Now if you ended up getting the other team plus one, 20, now Getting the other team a plus 120. Now you're going to be putting 100 down, you'll be getting 120 in return there. Hence, there you go. There's a guaranteed profit, no matter who wins that game. All right, so keep it same unit size, all right, so let's get back to it. Anyway, minus three or less is what you're looking for. 

32:12
So circle those games on any day of the week, circle those games out and then, once the game starts, wait until the first quarter ends also right, make sure it's not a blowout. 

32:21
You got to make sure it's pretty tight. All right, you got to make sure it's within about a five point range in the first quarter. Not one team is absolutely blowing the other team out right out the gate. All right, because you will lose that opportunity. Because if you bet a team that's plus money and that that favorite actually ends up blowing them out right from the beat, right from the get-go, they might never get the run back could happen at any time. 

32:39
Exactly, it doesn't matter so you got to make sure it's still tight, all right. So after the first quarter ends, we're going to take the underdog. All right, we're going to take the underdog at plus money. And now what we're going to do is we're going to watch that game. You're going to keep your phone, your computer, whatever it is, to keep up to date. You know exactly what's going on live in the live odds. And now wait for this team to become a favorite and the team that was the favorite to become the underdog. 

33:03
Once they become both plus money, you place one unit on each Boom Pause pause, I got to go off, okay. 

33:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
First off, I'm obviously saying all this stuff's irrelevant. I'll prove to you why it's irrelevant. First off, the minus three or less doesn't matter, because you don't have to get both the games at plus money to guarantee yourself money. And here's what I mean. Let's say the game's minus 16. Okay, and one team is minus 2000. All right, if you can get one team at minus 2000 and you get the other team at plus 3000, in theory, obviously you would then need to vary your unit size, but you would also get guaranteed money. So, just like plus money on either side. 

33:44
It just proves how rookie this guy actually is, because he he currently doesn't understand, or is failing to communicate. Maybe he does understand it, that the minus three well, you know what I'm gonna go ahead and say. He doesn't understand it because he keeps saying minus three or less. The only way to make money on a scalp is not to get both teams at plus 100. You can have one team at minus 10 and the other team at plus 111 and you're making money right. So to say it needs to be a close game we got to wait till the end of the first quarter is irrelevant, okay, furthermore, um, I actually have done some work on similar stuff like this. Nothing in regards to the strategy he's doing, but I can already, I would say strategy loosely I can already. 

34:21
I can already optimize his thing, which already doesn't work, but I could optimize it really quickly for him. 

34:26
Okay, number one optimization. You're probably not going to want to do this on the money line because you're going to be betting bigger minuses and pluses and therefore are going to have to risk a lot more for the desired outcome. You would much rather bet this on the spread, paying minus 110 or minus 115 live right. So the way I would do this is you would try to bet plus 16 and a half and then you'd try to play back minus 13 and a half. That would be better in terms of your staking. Also, it would enable you to do this for every single game, not just the games that are minus three or less, not just the games after the first quarter, and also the games that have bigger. Favorites are typically the games in which the spread is going to fluctuate more versus the other way around. So if he's looking for fluctuation here again, don't do this, because it doesn't win. But I've already made his strategy way better by just saying I agree with you. 

35:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know I think what he's going for here is like we know it's not a guaranteed. We know that this is not a guarantee. By the way, make that explicitly clear for people watching it. He's going for the guarantee yourself money. So in a situation where you bet in your example, plus 16 and a half and minus 13 and a half you could win one of the bets and lose the other, and you're paying VIG, but you could also win both as well. So it's not a guarantee that you're going to win money, but in the longterm you would have higher EV doing that than something. 

35:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It would honestly be the same EV and you wouldn't guarantee yourself money, you would just have more opportunity. It would be the same EV, ev, to be honest. But what I'm saying is there's no reason for you to say that this needs to be both plus money. So if he had, for example, plus 145 and then he bet the next team and they were instead, at the end of whatever run, they were minus 05, in his current situation he's like no, don't bet him yet, we gotta wait gotta wait till they get a dog minus 05 is still the same. 

36:18
You know strategy, yes, quote, unquote that he's using. Sorry zach, you got a question here yeah, okay. 

36:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
so I just wanted was wondering, even in this scenario, like where he's saying with the money lines, wouldn't it almost just be easier if it was greater than the minus three and stuff like where the spread's bigger if you're doing the money line and the reason I'm thinking this is like, um, the NBA, a lot of times you can get situations where like it's plus 400, plus 500 for a team outright to win that game, if you bet five bucks on them ahead of the game to win at plus plus 500, let's just say it's like a blanket statement for, like a small unit, better Five dollars ahead of the game, plus 500. That dog opens up or at any point is winning. A lot of times like the, the team who entered as a favorite is still not gonna fly to plus money, like they're still there even in the live line, like they might be minus 120, let's say like for the sake of this, or minus 400 yes right, right, right. 

37:15
But like I'm just thinking like for the sake of this, for like just quick math in my head, like minus 120, you could bet 12, you're gonna profit 10. If that favorite ends up winning still at what it was, you're still gonna profit. 

37:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's probably gonna be even easier or better for you financially if the it's bigger than that so what johnny's saying is it actually doesn't matter, it's around, it's the exact same, it's the exact same, no matter what. What he's doing here is actually like limiting the amount of games that are going to fit a certain criteria. So now, instead of being able to bet every use, use a live betting strategy on every game on the board, you're now restricting yourself to x amount of games, which is three or less, which is I don't know what, how many, what percentage games 20 maybe? I have no idea. 

37:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Honestly I don't know, but like he just made that number up also, like what if it's a three and a half point dog? 

38:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
right, exactly. He's provided no evidence that minus three is like the definition of what a close game should in theory. 

38:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
By the way, the spread changes throughout the game and then that's just the new spread, by the way, yes, so so like just to go off again. It's like the. The reason this strategy doesn't work is because the price is the price at any given second and it's constantly changing and it's constantly becoming efficient. So when he says like, oh, the game is minus three or less, if the game was minus three prior to the game and in play, the team that started off as a favorite went on a 15-0 run, the spread for the game is likely now minus 14 and a half and or minus 12 and a half, whatever it might be. That is the new efficient spread. 

38:48
Minus 12 and a half is the new spread for the game. The spread is no longer minus three. It doesn't matter. What the pre-game spread was is largely irrelevant to anything for anything to do with in-game it. It's a cool reference point, but live lines have become so efficient right now to the point where you can essentially throw that out. If you're looking for the spread, it's whatever the current live line is is the accurate spread. 

39:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Price is the price. There are some of you who are watching this right now and you probably have a friend that does something very similar to this and you have trouble explaining to them why it's a bad idea. Tell them to come over to the Circles Off channel. Hit the subscribe button. We will do more stuff like this, debunking a lot of live betting strategies. 

39:29
You know all sorts of these myths, so on and so forth, but there's I like to use the word arbitrary endpoints right, it's the same thing that happens with trends. I I'd never heard this before till meeting johnny. It's one of my favorite things about a trend where he says like you know, if a trend is 10 and 0 against the spread, 10 and 0 in the last 10 games, I can guarantee that it's 10 and 1 in the last 11, and that's because that 10 game sample is an arbitrary endpoint. It's basically trying to make something look better than it is and in this situation, he's just picking arbitrary numbers right Minus three. There's no significance of minus three. 

40:09
Wait till the first quarter ends. Why would you wait till the first quarter ends, instead of picking 10 minutes left in the first quarter, right Minutes left, like there's nothing that he has outlined or dictated here, which makes that a worthwhile point to make that bet, other than maybe there's a longer stoppage which he's never mentioned or anything like that. Right, and there's obviously long stoppages after the six minute mark in the first quarter anyways. So we'll watch. We'll watch the end of this. Maybe there's some listener questions here. I'm hoping that I. He probably wouldn't be the type of guy who would read a listener question that calls him out or anything, but we'll see. 

40:42 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
You need money, all right, that's how that works, and it's a little bit of work. I ain't gonna lie, it's a little bit of work because you gotta kind of watch the game, you have to see the runs, and you gotta correlate that with your sports book as well and pay attention to how the game to do this? 

40:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, technically you literally do not have to watch the game. There's nothing about you, because you again he's outlined the strategy. There's nothing in here where you'd have to watch the. All you have to do is look at the score to see the run. 

41:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
FYI. The live betting odds are ahead of any TV broadcast, so watching the game is not even going to do anything Like you could just watch the live betting odds, and that will be quicker than watching the game. Yep, go ahead. 

41:26 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
And make sure you get the bet in, because sometimes that happens when you're doing live betting Can't quite get the bet in right away. All right, but this is how you're going to do it, guys. This is how you're going to be able to get an NBA strategy that's pretty much guaranteed profit, as long as you do it the right way the way I just taught you right there. 

41:43
All right, guys. Now, if you guys want any more other strategies than what I'm just teaching you here, make sure you guys go down below in the description and book a call, all right, so that way I can show you guys exactly. 

41:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Bro, let's book a call with this guy. We should actually book a call. Let's book a call with him live on the air. 

41:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, we should do a live circles off with with this guy. Wow, line maker sports. So this is the grift, but I was wondering what the grift was the whole time you gotta book a call with this guy for one-on-one. 

42:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I should sell a call service too, man, I'll actually give out real value. Like, for example I would just give his strategy open with the spreads and say only in the fourth quarter, because that's when there's going to be the most movement. 

42:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Here's the thing If you bet the game when the game has gone final and the odds are still up on the board, you're guaranteed to profit. Did you know that? Like if you know the final score of the game? Who? 

42:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
are you signing up as Luke Campanella? 

42:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Luke For those who are listening. Uh, we are checking out his free strategy session schedule. 

42:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's some questions here. Your current bankroll dude? If you put your current bankrolls more than 50,000 and you and you're scheduling a call with this guy, then I don't know. I don't even know if yeah that's please, please. 

42:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I. I hope this gets out and people will will at least see some of this stuff. What is the main goal that you want to achieve with your sports betting in your bankroll in the next 12? 

43:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
1 billion is it's guaranteed. Why would you settle for anything less? 

43:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, I don't. I don't know why. What do you feel is the biggest obstacle that's stopping you from reaching your goal on your own? Not Not enough good information? 

43:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No put haven't found a good betting strategy. 

43:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This guy's just going to send a link. We're going to get to the point where we're going to have to determine whether or not we want to pay for this session. We might end up paying for this. If you feel our coaching program can help you reach your goals and you're willing to invest in yourself. When do you want to get started? Obviously, Obviously. 

43:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We only accept five clients in our coaching program each month, to ensure they have success and get the support they need. Why should we? 

43:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
choose to work with you, Bro. This is the Simon Hunter grift all over. 

44:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What is this? Should we choose to work with you, bro? This is the simon hunter. Grift all the world. It's like we only take on 100 clients and no, no, put this, put this. I'm down bad. I need the money or my wife's gonna leave me perfect. Well, it's just a joke guys. 

44:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like, yeah, go put that email. All right, throw in your email, zach, we'll blur this out. So no one, no one spam spamming, all right. Uh, is the video done, is it? Let's let the last I want to see how he really promos himself in this one-on-one session go ahead. 

44:32 - Linemaker Sports Clip  (Caller)
I can show you guys exactly how to do this in all sports and how to come up with strategies for all sports. Dying all right guys once again look for a team minus three or less. Let's go ahead and wait until the first quarter ends and let's try to nab both of those at plus money, and when we do that, we're going to get guaranteed profit. All right, guys. So that is your NBA strategy for this season. Check it out. 

44:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If you guys got any questions on that, make sure you guys go down in section ask any questions whatever you need to ask, um like I said good, all right, get this guy off the screen um. 

45:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So there's a part two by the way, and it was posted yesterday. Oh, okay, we might have to get to that one in a future episode. 

45:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We might have to get to that one k into 10k let's see the videos that are here and I only had to pay him 8k monthly betting report. 

45:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Did we win or lose? Okay, those might be interesting. Make 1k per month, sure, I mean you could literally that's, that's master this or lose yeah nice yeah, uh, listen. 

45:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, what's hilarious is like you know, he says like make 10k in sports betting, like they're all bullshit, but like I actually could make any old guy off the street 10k from sports betting. 

45:36
No doubt, guys, we might have to do this one at some point I'm actually saying I legitimately can do that and and more than that, like I I think you know I told it, I said this before in ontario specifically you, you gotta be not trying to not make 10k if you have some starting bankroll so I think, um, like we could create a video. 

45:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's like how to make 100k betting on sports, and the first, like it's just the I'll get, like the whiteboard behind me step one wrangle up like a lot of money from your friends and family so you can bet a lot, and then step two, bet golden state warriors money line at home no, but you got to plug in an ad into the video. 

46:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes. You say like step two, sign up to pinnacle sports book, the number one sports book in Canada, and then you plug it as an ad and then you say that would be the video. 

46:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, then go to Pinnacle Golden State's next home game, where they're not off a back-to-back and they're not returning from a long road trip. Bet them on the money line at home. If that bet somehow loses loses which it won't then I'll put like a 3a on the board, step 3a if first bet somehow loses, then you have to collect more money and you double down on golden state's next home game, because they won't lose two home games in a row guys. 

46:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I, I just want to actually they are a sponsor of the show, but we do need to actually plug Pinnacle here. Pinnacle is the best book for like, I won't even say it's the best book, I'll take that back. I'll take it back. It is a necessary book that you need to have if you're betting on sports in any capacity, and I mean recreationally, seriously trying to make a living off this. You need to have a pinnacle account. They have the best odds so frequently that it's dumb not to have this. Like you are literally going to place bets at minus 110 when you could place them on pinnacle at minus 106. 

47:39
For almost every game, whether it be like for almost every nfl game, there is going to be one of either the spread money line or total, one of the sides where pinnacle will have the best price in the market, especially in ontario where we have a lot of books. You can sign up for pinnacle. Obviously apologies, if you're in the us you won't be able to sign up at pinnacle, um, but I'm looking at it right now. So for just pulling up my bet stamp odd screen here we have if you're betting, I'm just going to go for this. Sunday Jags over would be Pinnacle KC New Orleans. Dolphins Moneyline Dolphins Spread and Dolphins Under Vegas Under Vegas Spread. Cardinals, spread Cardinals, money line Cardinals under this is including every sportsbook in. 

48:25
Ontario. This is including every sportsbook in Ontario and the US. Yes, I'm looking here and Pinnacle's got the best price on, essentially and I'm just talking full game. If you start going halftime lines, then now you actually need Pinnacle, because Pinnacle is also dealing low juice on halftime. So, listen, there's, there's a few reasons why you need a Pinnacle account. Number one is because you like, listen, it's a hard book to beat. It is very hard to beat, but they are giving the best odds on so many games that you need to have that. 

48:55
Do not bet on the Cardinals at at any other book when Pinnacle is offering plus 154. And other than that, you are not getting anywhere above plus 145. It's dumb. You're getting nine extra cents $9 per your hundred in potential winnings, no brainer. And as we've always said, as we said last week, the best part about it is Pinnacle is winner's welcome, meaning they will not ban you. We've we talked so much about losing accounts. These guys don't want to pay this book's limits, you, stuff like that. 

49:27
Pinnacle has posted limits. They raise those limits or lower those limits across their entire site for their entire customer base. I have the same limits as Rob has the same limits as Zach, if I'm up a hundred grand and Rob's down a hundred grand, we both have the same limits, as Rob has the same limits as Zach. If I'm up a hundred grand and Rob's down a hundred grand, we both have the exact same limits. When you look at other sports books, it's not like this. They it's pretty predatory. They will take the guys who are down big money and allow them to bet more, and the guys who were up big money they'll be like $5 max, free, $1, 57 cent max with pinnacle Specifically, $1.57 max With Pinnacle specifically. 

49:59
This will never happen. Maybe they change their policy in the future, but I've played there for years and it's never happened to me. It's not happened to anyone. I know. It's never happened to anyone on gambling Twitter. They're a reputable, respectable sportsbook and you don't have to worry about getting limited, so sign up. Listen, I'm telling you guys, sign, sign up. Right now. We don't have a promo code. A use use code circles off, so if you can fire us a message on twitter, we want to obviously keep the sponsors happy, but honestly, guys, go sign up. You need to have pinnacle as one of your sports books. It's a no-brainer absolutely agree. 

50:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
um, I've been betting at pinnacle for many, many years. It is, I've been betting at Pinnacle for many, many years. It is, like Johnny said, absolute necessity to have it Plain and simple Low-vig sportsbook. Can't go wrong with a low-vig sportsbook. 

50:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Back to this guy's strategy. I guess, before we close off, one thing I do want to say is it may not be clear to some people as to why this is going to lose, so I'll just even go ahead and blanket statement okay, when you are betting, as I mentioned, you're betting the price at a specific price. So if you're betting plus 145, that's the true price. So what you are betting into is a line that's plus 145 and minus 170. You know roughly, you're betting into a hold percentage around five to 6% for live betting, maybe a little more depending on the sports book you use five to 6% for live betting, maybe a little more depending on the sports book you use. So all you're doing when you're placing that bet is placing a bet that is probably going to lose six. That's going to lose you a 6% ROI in the long run. 

51:29
Okay, by saying what this guy is saying, that hey, sometimes you're going to come back the other side. That's not guaranteed. You're never guaranteed. It could easily just run the other way and what happens is, in the event that it does run, you're going to place a bet back on the main team, the other team at Plus Money, and you're going to place a bet into the exact same margin of 6%. So all you're going to do is place $200 bets $100 bet here, $100 bet on the other side and you are going to in expected value. If you do this forever, you are going to in expected value. If you do this forever, you are going to lose 6%. Simply put, that's it. You're 100% going to lose 6%. On the nose. 

52:05
If you bet this a million times, all right, in this scenario, the way you're going to lose is when you win. In his scenario, you're either winning $45 or $25. Okay, when you don't get the chance to ARB back, you're losing, losing your full hundred. So when you win, you're going to win a little 10, 15, 25 bucks, depending on what it is, depending on how good it is. When you lose, you're going to lose the full hundred. All in, with this guy's strategy, I'm a hundred percent certain you will just lose the hold at the book you were playing with. So if you're playing at a book that's live, that has a 6% hold, you do this strategy for the whole season. Chances are you will run minus 6%. 

52:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. Simply put, it's a simple math. I completely agree with everything you just said. 

52:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And it's absolutely not guaranteed money. 

52:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely not guaranteed money. Uh, for those who are big NBA fans are looking for NBA picks content, anything related to that. We do have a NBA picks channel here at the hammer. If you go to YouTube, subscribe to the board NBA, we'll link it in the description below. Daily picks from that channel, from people who don't claim to be experts. We track every single one of the picks they give out on the show in bet stamp pits. Pips NBA. Jacob Gromania of amateur hour sports live every single day to Pips NBA. Jacob Gromania of Amateur Hour Sports live every single day to break down. The NBA give out picks for that. So if you do enjoy picks content, please subscribe to that channel. If you enjoyed what we did today, this type of episode, let us know about it. Comments down below hit that thumbs up button, rate and review five stars, whatever you can do, because we do value the feedback. 

53:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If not, we'll pivot to something else, but I love doing episodes like eventually we can do our own thing about how to actually make money live betting and I'd be happy to give out some edges that would actually win. Um, but only when we grow this channel a lot and get to his level. Then we can actually give out some stuff that's going to win 2k subscribers. 

53:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Subscribers and Johnny will do a how to win live. Guaranteed way to win live betting 2K subscribers and. 

54:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Johnny will build a Formula 1 car in this studio. That I will do right here. 

54:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In this studio. We'll have him live until he can build the car. 

54:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If we get no, seriously, though, we got to just do something about this man, because I'm telling you guys, this stuff aggravates me. No, but Rob, it's aggravating because I actually could show you guys how to make 10K betting this year. And then we see all these clickbaiting titles which are like how to make 10K? It's like do shit like this on NBA live betting. 

54:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, listen, we clickbait our titles too, so I'm not going to oh, we deliver, well we, but we deliver well, we do listen. There's going to be people that watch our stuff from a different perspective and they're going to be like, oh no, whatever, it's not for me or what. We have put out a lot of valuable educational content on this channel period. Plain and simple, how to read an odd screen like that's a real thing, that it's one of our highest viewed videos, because that's something that people want to do. This guy is a marketer through and through. You can tell that with the thumbnails. You can tell that with the episode titles. He has built a following because he's a good marketer of himself. 

55:12
Myself and Johnny, we're more interested in the content. Maybe that's what's led us down the path of being a smaller channel. I don't want to, you know, but I will. We will clickbait the shit out of this stuff to grow to this level. We will because there's a. There's not enough. I shouldn't say that I actually did watch some really good videos on YouTube which are big followings from people. So I don't want to say that there's no one else doing stuff like that, because there are, but there's too much of this and too many people like read the comments on these videos and it's like, oh, like, thanks, can't wait to try this. Like people are just going to go down the wrong path. That's what really bothers me, agitates me quite a bit, but we will get to more stuff like this If you guys do like it. This has been wait. 

55:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hold up one sec, sorry, sorry. If you actually are looking for some good content on YouTube, then and you're watching this and this video for some reason blows up on YouTube and you're looking for some good content. I'm like NBA winning strategy or like this is why you lose how to actually improve. Go on over to this channel. Captain Jack Andrews he's a buddy of Rob and I, he he made a bunch of videos, um, you know, throughout the last couple of years that are all still relevant today and they're not easy. You're not going to watch this video and just print a hundred thousand in your bank account, but you can actually win off watching that. So, so that would be my recommendation. If this video blows up on YouTube and you want to go somewhere else, go there or check out previous episodes of the show. Thanks, everyone Like. Subscribe, peace.