00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. We are taking questions from the listeners. It's been a long time since we've done this, so we've opened up the floor to all of you out there. We got questions on closing line value. We got questions on match fixing. We got some personal questions. We got some questions about my cooking skills. All of that and more this week's episode of Circles Off. Ah, here we go. Welcome to circles off, episode number 78, presented by pinnacle sportsbook here on the hammer betting network. 

00:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
78 is 78 got a current leaf a current if it weren't for a current leaf 178, got a current leaf A current if it weren't for a current leaf TJ Brody. 

00:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love the name Brody, by the way. I don't know why. What up Brody Brody? Brody's such a great name it's. You won't remember this. Maybe you will, I don't know. I don't know if you ever watched Seinfeld, but there's an episode where Jerry has to bootleg a movie and deliver the tapes to a guy named Brody. Absolutely amazing episode. Guy just wants the movie shot and Jerry's like we need cameras set up on the balcony and this, and that it's a very, very good episode. I'm not describing. 

01:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Never seen. 

01:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Seinfeld. You should watch Seinfeld start to finish. I don't actually know if it'll hold up or stand the test of time. 

01:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It might just be it does. I watched it this year for the first time and then I watched it back this year again, so I've watched it all the way through twice this year alone. 

01:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolute banger TV show. Season one eh, not my kind of show, but it really really picks up steam Brody, great character from Seinfeld. Other 78s there's never been a 78 in NBA history. Mlb very, very few NFL off the top of my head. Active players no, I know a former player. I don't know if you'll know him. I don't and I don't, I don't. I'm obviously older than you, so it's different. 

02:00
Bruce Smith, huge defensive end back in the day. But I, bruce Smith, was in a movie called Little Giants when I was growing up. Little Giants is like that guilty pleasure sports movie like terrible, but it's a football movie and Bruce Smith like makes a cameo, as does Emmett Smith. Bunch of football players make cameos. Very, very good movie. That brings me back to my childhood. Little Giants terrible football team that runs a bunch of trick plays and wins and wins, upsets the Cowboys. Before we get into our Q&A today, this episode, as always sponsored by Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is the official sportsbook partner of circles off and they are the world's sharpest sportsbook. Now live in the province of ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades. Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in ontario. Please play responsibly. We can't preach that. Enough. Not available to those in the us, and we're going to get a question this week about Pinnacle as well, A couple of questions about Pinnacle, a couple of questions about closing line value, how it relates. 

03:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
so we will go ahead and answer that. We're going to start it off, Rob. As always, I'm going to read out the questions. We will divide these up here. So we'll start off with the general betting category, as we've classified it here. Why does anyone bet super heavy faves minus a thousand, for example? 

03:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
low reward. All right, pazola, we'll let chances. Okay, okay, listen, value is value. I think we can all agree on that, right, and there's nothing worse than losing a bet on a big favorite. It absolutely sucks. Have I lost on a minus 1000 favorite before? Yes, have I lost on it multiple times? Yes, it's horrible, horrible, horrible feeling. But at the end of the day, why would someone bet a super heavy favorite? They would bet them if they thought it was a valuable bet, right, like if, if you could bet a minus 1000 that you think should be priced at minus 10,000, that's a valuable bet to make and you would do that right every single time. So you can say low reward, sure, low reward, but it's all. I mean, it's all dependent on risk. 

04:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's just higher risk more than it is low reward in theory, the reward is, for me is the expected value, so you might actually be able to get a higher reward. On a minus a thousand. I will echo Rob Like if you lose a minus a thousand it feels like shit. No, it just feels horrible, like I literally bet this, it was minus a thousand and lost. It is what it is, it's going to lose sometimes. 

04:38
You know, one thing I always do is like once a bet is placed, once a bet is in and the money is locked in the account, at that point the odds of the bet, once the game starts, it doesn't really matter in terms of, like you know, the money is already made, it's locked in and now it's just about, kind of, the amount of money you're going to have returned to your account. 

04:58
So if you bet a minus 1000, 1000 risk to win 100, that's an $1,100 swing at that point, meaning if you win that bet you get 1,100 bucks back. You lose that bet, you get zero back. In theory, that's the same as betting six, risking 600 for 500. So the risk at that point, if you want to think of it as like, yes, you don't physically win that money, and if you're playing on a credit account and I guess think of it a little differently, but not really. It's the same thing. You're putting your money in and you're getting an amount out. So it's like if that game's down to the wire it's an $1,100 swing. There's no low reward, low risk, nothing like that. It's pretty much all the same at that point. 

05:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean the most common one that we can remember, that's been highly publicized, that lost. A big favorite like this is the no safety in the Superbowl. Right Back to back years this was probably seven or eight years ago there was a safety in the Superbowl and people who bet the no safety at minus 2000 got torched. But if you were to make that same bet on every single game over the history of time, you'd be up a lot of money. So yeah, it does suck, but at the end of the day it's just a matter of value. And listen, there's going to be some people where your risk tolerance is low and you're going to say no, like I don't ever want to risk 10,000 to win a thousand or a thousand to win a hundred, and that's fine. Like, you can bet your own money however you want to. But the simple answer to why does anyone bet super heavy favorites? It's because they see value in that number. And I would Like if I thought a super heavy favorite was mispriced. 

06:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would bet it Multiple times. I've bet minus a thousand Most of the time. It wins. Sometimes it loses. It is what it is, all right. 

06:38
Next question To what extent are the odds offered on a very small market? So let's say he's saying something that's available only on a couple books two, three books. To what extent do those odds reflect the true market probability of an event? Is it possible to gauge the probability better than the books, given the fact that these three books cannot copy the odds? You know, I guess, from a sharper book is what he's insinuating here. So essentially, the question is is it possible to beat the market and have a truer probability than the closing odds? 

07:08
If it's something that's a really small market and only three books are posting odds for it, to which the short answer is absolutely 100%, it's possible to have an edge on the market in something that is posted on every site and has much higher limits and liquidity. That's not out of the question either. It's just much more difficult to do. So. Essentially, the way I'd answer this is the least amount of books posting this. That means that not only do those books care about it less, so they're going to put less effort into actually pricing that. But since it's not available everywhere, other bettors in the rest of the world, the whole world, is not going to care about that as much, meaning they're not going to actually put in the time to do that. 

07:52
Prime example would be, you know, let's say, a soccer market now for the World Cup, because those markets are so big in liquidity. Now, it's not that the sports book is going to be sharper on that versus the regular season soccer, it's that more bettors now the biggest betting groups, the biggest bettors in the world, are actually putting effort into that, because if they can master it and find an edge on it, they can make hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars as opposed to hundreds or, you know, just a thousand bucks. So for that reason I would say anytime there's more liquidity, you have a less chance to beat that. But it's not because of the books, it's because you're competing against other players I couldn't have said it better myself. 

08:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, a lot of times, yeah, it's. It's the fact that there's just not going to be a lot of competition in that market that's going to give you an edge. Um, I can think of a lot of examples off the top of my head where some books just open some small events and OHL hockey that's. That's a pretty good example. Where there's like three, four, five books in market, one pph that has OHL hockey lines, and you there's, there's just no one betting that stuff. Like very few people are betting that stuff because it's hard to get down on it. 

09:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, um, well said, yeah, and another like examples. Why would I focus my time let's say I want to make money betting on like originating and focusing on a curling model, when I can only bet curling on three sites for a hundred dollars max the most I'm going to make over the course of the season if I master that and clean it up, maybe a grand or two why would I focus on that when I could focus on something bigger that I can make way more money? So that's the rationale there. All right up next, for 2,000 years, the smartest men in the world all knew that the earth was the center of the universe. For decades, first half NBA totals were simply the full game divided by two. In what area do you anticipate the next paradigm shift, the next paradigm shifting betting breakthrough to come? Okay, sorry, I got to reread this again. 

09:53
It was split out in a couple Couple lines, couple lines in the Word document Rob sends these in a Word doc and I don't have Microsoft Word on my Mac, so I'm reading them in like a text editor. In what area do you anticipate the next paradigm shifting betting breakthrough to come from? All right, rob, we'll let you uh answer that one this was tough. 

10:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I thought about it for a long time and didn't really arrive at like a great answer. Something related to in-game live wagering is what I'm going to say. The models are getting better. That means that the offerings that sportsbooks can put out are getting better, and I think someday there's going to be some kind of trading exchange for it. It would have been FTX, but you know what happened with FTX. Yeah, it's I don't know what happened with FTX? 

10:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it's that I don't know what happened with FTX. No one does Well, true? No one does. 

10:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No one has any actual idea. That's a good point. Yeah, I think it's something related to live in-game wagering. That's all I can come up with. I mean, I'm not a very good critical thinker, so this comes from Luke, who is one of someone on spanky's trading team. Uh, great, great dude, I I just. I mean, you got anything else other than live? 

11:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
betting. Yeah, um, I mean I I'd say, uh, the the easiest like paradigm shift is when there's like a rule change in a sport that doesn't get a like. That takes like a year or two to actually find the true effect of it. So, like there's rule changes every year in every sport, usually they're very minor. Occasionally they will have something that's a big impact and the prime example would be like the nfl moves the extra point back. The extra point used to be guaranteed. Now it's no longer guaranteed. People were like, oh, that's going to be bad for the like, that's going to shift games under because, like the extra point now is going to be missed more often, which is true. But really what it did that people didn't realize until like a year or two later, is the three is no longer as key a number. The four is no longer as key a number. Now the one and two come into play a lot more because more teams are going for two missed xp stuff like that. Um, anyway, stuff like that is where I think there's going to be a paradigm shift. 

12:05
Even as simple as like okay, in this year's world cup for some reason there, and it's already been accounted for now after the first couple games, but there is just like double the added extra time, yep, than previous soccer games or world cups. No one really knows like exactly why. I mean they issued some statements but you never used to see like nine minutes of added time. So what does that do? Extra time and added time, extra chance for a goal, shift stuff up like easy. You got to figure out. Be quick to those and you'll be able to uh to make money on those shifting things. Another example would be like the var checks. Didn't have those in the past. You know, in the past world cup? I think they might have had something. Did they have var in the past world? You know, in the past world cup? I think they might've had something. Did they have VAR in the past world cup? 

12:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I don't. I think this might be the first world cup. They definitely had it in the euros. 

12:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They had it in the euros, but even now, right now, it's like they're checking everything. 

12:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, and listen, I, sports are constantly evolving. So, like from a on the field type of thing like home field advantage in sports, drastically shifting Remember when they played in a bubble versus how it is now how travel is accounted for. You know, in the past I think maybe people would have said that you know each team has the same home field advantage or applied it across. You know, across every team the same way. I think that's changing in the way people model games and so on and so forth. So I mean, with each individual sport you bring up a good point, but definitely rule changes are going to have, um, a pretty good like impact on you know, we we have this baseline for what everything should be and and we do end up seeing these shifts going forwards I thought this was a very intriguing question. 

13:39
I'm sure if you pulled, you know a bunch of sports bettors, you get a lot better answers than the one that I gave. But it's not my, it's not the way I think. 

13:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But what are you saying like a paradigm shift is in what's coming next for the biggest, at the biggest angle, the biggest edge that's how I interpreted it. 

13:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What does everyone? 

13:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
think that's true. That's no longer true. I think he's kind of saying fair enough. So that's why I said, like rule changes is probably the one that's going to fix it. I don't, and there's probably a few others as well, but I don't necessarily know what it would be Like. Shifts in the way the game is played is another one. So, like in MLB, like who was the first team to just say like you know what, why are we putting the guy at shortstop? This guy never hits it there. Let's move this guy over to the other side. 

14:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like when teams start doing those things um which you see every year, and those are like the things I love the most like. 

14:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, for example, what about? What about in soccer? Now, I don't know if you know what I'm about to say on the free kicks, guys laying down on the wall back. 

14:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a steal that like, well, how about? How? Like I was thinking so because you mentioned baseball with the shifts how about when the rays just started throwing out a guy for one inning? 

14:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
for the first inning. The opener now, yeah, no, no, no longer a closer um. 

14:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The real answer is if I knew what the big paradigm would have said I would not be replying to you, luke. I know, luke, of all people, you're the last guy on earth that I would be wanting to give this answer to. Um, but I don't know. I I'm just, you know, throwing some random stuff out there. 

15:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, um, up next, all right. So is coding experience necessary to originate sides and totals? If so, where should someone with zero coding expense experience start? Okay, so, first off. If so, then where would you start? Okay, so you could obviously learn to code. I wouldn't really recommend that, depending on your age. If you're younger and you, like, are interested in coding and you find that that's a cool thing, then I mean, obviously that's something you should do in general if you find it interesting. But I don't. I would not recommend someone who is trying to get good at sports betting learn to code because they want to get good at sports betting, do you agree? 

15:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think coding is just generally a good skill to have, but I kind of agree with you. So, like to back up on the question, I don't think it's necessary, right? I don't think you have to be a good coder or understand how to code, or even necessarily understand how to use Excel, for example, which is like a step down from being able to code in Python or R or whatever, but it's gonna make it easier for you to succeed, is what I would get at. Like there's nothing that is a pure requirement in order to be a successful sports. Better, when you talk about originating, there's people who win that are just handicappers, right? Who kind of? They have the process that goes on in their head of how to make a number on a game and they know what to account for and they can get to that number without having a program that runs that number for them. You know what I'm getting at. So I don't think it's a necessity, but I definitely think it's a nice to have and you can make your life way more efficient in doing so. That's the biggest thing for me. 

16:52
I actually went to school for computer science, never graduated from university, but I had a coding background. I just never applied that skill for years because I was working as a radio producer. When was I gonna have to code? I wish I had kept up with it, because you can make your life that much more efficient rather than manually inputting numbers into Excel every day, and you know doing things. You can have something do that for you in a second, so it will be helpful. But is it a necessity? No, you. Are you working and competing against other people in the market that have those skills? Absolutely yes, but to your point, would I recommend that if you're going to start sports betting today, you need to go out and take an intro to coding or something like that? 

17:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I would strongly recommend against coding and and like we could phone a friend here and uh phone up my, my business partner, julian uh, who, who is a coder, and uh coded the entire app for bet stamp, along with the the team of developers we have here. But this is something where look at the skills you need to be a good coder and then also think to yourself do I have those skills? Like it is a very tedious job. It is something where you're gonna have a very, very steep learning curve. It is essentially the equivalent of learning a new language with a shit ton of problem solving lumped in. So if you're not a problem solver, you're not going to be a good coder in general. And if you don't want to take the time to learn a new language, like you're going to be spending like a year or two before you're even at an amateur level of coding, and who knows if you'll even be interested in sports betting at that time. Like it's, you're not going to have any edge or anything like that you would need to. You know, honestly, don't, don't, don't learn to code. Unless you want to learn to code, don't learn to code to go into sports betting. It's bad value. 

18:43
Instead, what I would do is play to your strength. What do you have that other people don't have within sports betting? So do you have some information that other people might not have? Are you like better at being faster to these small market information things online? Can you get, like college hockey information faster than anyone else because you've got relationships with some beat writers at some colleges or some students and stuff like that? That would be one thing. I would focus on, stuff like that. 

19:10
Another example would be what do you have that other people don't is maybe you watch the nfl more. You watch every single game and what do you look at and say, hey, this is something that might not be factored into the line and because I'm watching all these games, I might have identified this before someone else, not because other people don't watch the games, but because I thought of it in a different way. So anything that you hear as a narrative, you're not going to want to look for that. You're going to want to look for, like dumb stuff, stupid stuff. You know what they do. This. This, this coach always does this. These guys always do this. I'm gonna go ahead and live bet this because I found that this coach. Always, you know he's not actually going to go for this and it's baked into the line that he's going to go for this. He's probably going to settle for a field goal. Under is better here. Yada, yada, yada anyways. 

19:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Next question I was just looking up the. I was about to say that there's more than one way to skin a cat, and I was. 

20:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We talked about what is it? Bit of bat something? No, potato there are more than one way to peel a potato that's what it? 

20:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
was there's more than one way to peel a potato. Yeah, sports betting is like. There's obviously different paths you can take and they all lead to different outcomes and so on and so forth and the amount of work you're gonna have to put in and what you're going to have to do on a daily basis. But there's lots of paths where coding is not a necessity. It's not I mean it's it's it's not a necessity in a in a lot of the paths that lead to successful sports betting, it's a valuable skill to have. 

20:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, but I don't necessarily think it's as related to sports betting as people think and that's why I wouldn't recommend it and it's, simply put, is just that. But like I don't even know, I like now I feel like I feel bad telling people, especially if you're watching this in, like university, like if you're looking for a hobby and you think that you'd be interested in it, do it. 

21:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I think coding is a very valuable skill to have in general life. I think it could open up a lot of avenues for you outside of sports betting. In sports betting, whatever you want to do, I would never say to somebody like, ah, don't bother learning how to program, it's going to lead you nowhere. I mean, I think it will lead you a lot of places. 

21:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What do you even need programming for? For sports betting Automation, so automation. So you don't even need to be. You need web scraping. You need tool building. You don't necessarily need like or you need financial modeling or predictive modeling. You don't like. Coding is so different. Like, you don't need to be like a UI UX developer. You don't need front end skills. 

21:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You don't need front end skills. But here's an example and just being like completely honest with people out there, I can go to the grocery store now, for an example, get away from my computer during the day and if a hockey play comes into range, I'm just going to get an alert on my phone and I can confirm that and someone can bet yeah, but you could just get that billed for you. Sure, I completely agree with you, but in some capacity someone would need to program that. 

22:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Understood yeah, completely agree with you, but in some capacity someone would need to program that Understood yeah. So I guess what Rob's saying is you need it. What I'm saying is you need it, but you don't have to do it yourself and I completely agree with that. 

22:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We do that all the time. I pay for a cleaning service at my house because I don't want to clean and that that's money well-invested, and I'd much rather this. My own models are programmed by someone else because I didn't want to do the work. Why am I going to? It's gonna take me 10 times the amount of time and it's going to be horrible code that I'm going to have to sift through years from now Like why would I do that? 

22:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, plus like. Just there's no guarantee that you even build it correctly, exactly, anyways, uh, moving on next question. All right, Um lines seem to be opening up sharper this year compared to years past. Have pro bettors found it harder to find clv this year? If so, why? 

22:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
pizza man. So I'm not. I'm not a great person to answer this question, because I don't bet the opener. 

22:55
I don't bet the openers, nor do I even look at the openers because I get tilted like like, for example, you know the year, it's week 13 in the nfl I. I found out that new orleans opened plus six against tampa bay and I would have really liked to bet new orleans this week but they got that down to like plus three and a half before I even saw the line. I now knowing that they were plus six earlier in the week and that it got plowed like that, it's kind of upsetting. So I refrain from that and from looking at openers for the most part. 

23:30
It's hard for me to say With that, said hypothetically, like if you just take a step back course, openers are going to be sharper. I think, because every year, not just this year, that's what I'm saying Like it's just that's going to be the progression over time. It's not, first of all, there's way, there's way more people in tune with the market now, even if the opener is not super sharp, there's going to be enough people that are betting it right away that are going to sharpen it enough. You know what I'm getting at. It's just going to be harder to get edges later and later in the week it's. 

24:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like a competition to see who can get down earlier now well, one thing that people don't necessarily realize is that the opener also just gets sharper every day. It doesn't matter. Like so every year, yes, but also every day of the season, it'll get, it'll get sharper. So the opener is sharper near the end of the year than at the beginning of the year. It doesn't necessarily mean that the closing line is more or less valuable in that. In my opinion, the closing line is equivalent value at the start of the year and the end of the year. But, yes, there will be more line movement, like you see it in college basketball right now, like at the start of the season, like you have, like teams right now that are still that are favored by like 12 and a half points and they'll lose by 17. Like that doesn't mean that the line is less. It was less efficient, like that's still what it is. It just means that there's more variance in the game, given that, like you don't really know what the teams are. That's still the true line, it's still the accurate, still the best representation we have. But like, yeah, that typically wouldn't happen as much near the end of the season versus, especially for college, where new players come in all the time like you don't even really know, like is, is davidson good this year? Like who do they have? Like you might be a? You know a lot of players who are just new and stuff like that. So opening line always gets sharper. 

25:17
We've noticed this as well. Um, the the more, the more recent trend, I would say, is opening lines are getting sharper for smaller market stuff now, like props, um, like you know NFL props, so like I, four years is like clean up on like NFL touchdown scores and like first touchdown scores, and I've taken like a step back on that this year now, especially on the first touchdown score, because the edges just aren't there anymore. Touchdown score, because the edges just aren't there anymore. Like all of the lines are now just a little like they don't hang as many of the players that are within the range of outcomes they'll just like remove those guys now. So you might have like, hey, this tight end got so much usage last week and he's still going off at like plus a thousand or sorry, plus ten thousand, to get the first touchdown. Now it's like, oh, they just they want to protect themselves. Like, okay, we'll price my like plus 3000, no value. So edges go away all the time. It is what it is. 

26:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He said, have professional bettors found it harder to find CLV this year? I do most of my NFL betting Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays of every week. You're still always going to have the edge on reacting to news regardless, so you can always get probably good CLV on that. Think of the Chicago Bears as an example Last week. Justin Fields is out. You're going to have a market movement, so you still obtain good CLV on the news related stuff regardless. 

26:36
I'll also say this and we're going to talk about this later with another question, I think but there's more influence in the market earlier in the week relative to past years. So we we see now that there's more people who can post a play on a Monday to a wide audience, that the market is just like everyone's going to go bet that and the market's going to have to move off of that Cause there's like a lot of money coming in at one time. That can suck at times where you would agree with that play but also could create opportunity for you later on um, where maybe you think the lines move, push in the in the wrong direction and you can get clv off of that. I will say this in all honesty I'm down in the nfl. This year I've had a losing year. I've had the best closing line value that I've ever had in betting the nfl so I don't think it's harder to find fixed though that league is fixed um. 

27:23
I don't think it's harder to find that league's fixed, though that league is fixed. I don't find it harder to find CLV. I honestly don't. I think it's just as easy as ever, because there's actually so much happening in market now that when you do have all these moves happening over the course of a week, I think it's easier to pinpoint where a number's off and be able to bet it Fair enough Fair pinpoint where a number is off and be able to bet it Fair enough, fair enough. 

27:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, we're going to get into actually some CLV specific questions. 

27:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This should be a good one. 

27:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
In a smaller market sport where CLV is not as consistent a predictor of success, at what point do you just give up betting the sport when consistently beating the market by a good margin but consistently losing? 

28:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's tough. We might have different answers to this as well, um, but he's talking about smaller markets. 

28:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I am a believer in clv how small the market, though, really depends like. If you're talking like curling or like formula one matchups or something where it's like you're barely getting any coin down, then it's a different answer than if you're talking about smaller market, as like nba props because that it's different. 

28:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I track my clv on everything that I do. 

28:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I believe it's important bet stamp, you can track all clv in bet stamp automatically for you against whatever book you want. So if you want, if you want, to track clv by the the way I know we didn't. I got to plant a question here once in a while. There's another question that just came in when do I track my CLV? How do I do it? Dang, that's a quick one that just came in. 

28:55
Basically, if you want to track it, you're going to go to the BetStamp app. You can download it in the App Store Android, ios, or you can use the web platform, wwwbetstampapp and essentially, when you track your bet, you just click the game and track it and then automatically it's going to tell you what your closing line value, where you could sort it by play type, all different tags. It's revolutionary if you're like originating anything, or if you're trying to get better at sports betting, because you're going to be able to see all your history, and then you're going to be like, wow, I actually am getting slaughtered even though I'm beating the market. Or you might say, hey, I think I have amazing CLV in MLB, but then you might actually put it in there and be like, nah, I don't, so anyways, that's dampapp. Um, thanks for that last second question. 

29:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was great, great timing. Actually, just as we were recording came in right at the last minute. I love that happens. It's great. Um, I track my clv for everything. I also track a secondary metric for every single bet that I make. 

29:51
People don't know this. I might have talked about this before on some other stuff I don't know that I have. I predominantly, for example, bet hockey and football. That's not exclusively what I bet, but predominantly what I bet. I track myV. I also track like expected goals and expected points in those leagues, because for me I want a combo of getting good CLV but also knowing that I'm not getting lucky on my outcomes, and I think that's extremely important. 

30:18
So I don't know that there's a measure in every sport of luck. I don't know that there is, like I don't know that NASCAR, for example, if you're betting head-to-head matchups, can you say I got lucky or I got unlucky? I have no idea. But if you can, if there is some sort of way for you to determine whether you are lucky or unlucky on a bet or whether it was just a coin flip or whatever, I would try to track that as well. And if you're in a scenario where you're getting good CLV, you're losing but you've been unlucky, then keep going. If you've been getting CLV, you're losing and you've been lucky in the process, then maybe it's time to stop. I think that there's secondary metrics to look at Now it depends on what you're betting. 

31:04
It's hard to do this for everything that you bet. I get it, like for a prop. It's very hard to say sometimes right. But you know, if you bet a wide receiver under rent this is a random under five and a half catches and the guy gets six targets and six receptions, you probably had the right bet right. I think there's ways that you can say after the fact, this was also a good bet and use your closing line value and your determination of whether or not in hindsight that ended up being a good bet to determine whether you should continue going forward. Yeah. 

31:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know. So you do expected goals. If you're doing a major market, you should probably do like expected points, expected goals, because that's just another way to analyze the game. Another one that people use, I know, is like they'll basically take the outcome and then see like how close were they. So when you, when you're looking at that um, let's say so, rob mentioned like the problem market, but let's say you had like raiders plus three and they lose by four, then that's better in theory than if they lost by like 24. You still lost your bet. It is what it is. But the game was you were closer to the actual outcome than expected, uh or sorry then then it appeared. 

32:16
So if you're consistently losing player props and like you're way off, then that's probably something that you should look at and then maybe stop. But if it's like relatively in the sample size, within reason, like there's enough people in the world betting right now that like anything is possible, you can get CLV on every single game and still lose over the course of a season, it's within the realm of possibilities. It's not necessarily like a guarantee. Just think about it. You could roll a dice and you could roll a five 25 times in a row. It could happen. It's not likely, but it could literally happen. So we also need to factor in that. Like we're not betting insane amounts. 

32:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If you bet five games a week, that's so small over the course of the whole season to actually make like one nfl season, like if you're someone who's just like three or four games a week, which a lot of people do in the NFL, that one NFL season is going to tell you absolutely nothing. Zero. The sample is so small. Honestly, the sample over three or four or five seasons is actually so small. This is why I like to track a secondary metric personally, like full, full market NFL. Right, okay, I'm beating the closed X percent of the time. This is my expected value based off of the bet that I made and where the closing line is. But I also want to know whether I'm quote or unquote on the right side or wrong side, based on how the game played out, and I do think that that should factor into things as well. 

33:44
Um, it's tough man. Like CLV is smaller markets. You know it's a good point, it's a good it's. The question is phrased well because, yes, it's not a consistent predictor of success. It can be really annoying to get good numbers and continue losing. Sample size is definitely important and also, it's just like you have to make a determination of some sort of luck, like am I on the right side of variance right now, or the wrong side, or neutral? I think all of these things play into it when you're deciding if you're gonna keep going or if you're just gonna stop. 

34:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, fair enough Up. Next, how significant is? Is clv closing line value in regards to nfl player props? Is it possible to beat props long term without obtaining clv due to the lower amount of focus sportsbooks place on them? You can take this one. So absolutely, yeah, yeah, it is possible. 

34:42
Um, you would still obviously want to not have a bad number. You know, if you're betting a quarterback over uh, 286 yards and then he closes at 280 yards, you don't want that. It's not good. Like in theory, you should still always want to get the best of the number, regardless of how variable the market is with player props, it's I can say this like the clv is not, is not as really important as the games, and we know, we know that and I'm trying to, you know, figure out a way to say this without saying too much. But like props are gonna like cut already. You don't necessarily want to be jamming like high value props all the time you could sometimes, but it's not really the best use. So, um, what I'd say on this is like, if you have a real like a really good props model, like a really good way to beat props, like you're probably going to want to do this, um, and try to just, like you know, not not necessarily like pick off all the bad lines or anything like that, cause there's no need to do that. You'll stay alive a lot longer. So you could definitely be props without getting CLV. 

35:54
The other thing with props is like a couple hundred bucks. I'll typically, like you know, move the line, whereas, like with a full game game, try, try betting 100 bucks on, or try betting 500 on the broncos money line it's not going to move the spread at all. You bet that on a prop it'll actually move it. So that's where you got to realize that, um, you're not necessarily in a spot where the clv is as accurate as it could be or should be compared to the games. But with that being, like I wouldn't say you don't want to get CLV. 

36:27
Um, right, because you you never want to take like I said, you never want to take it over 286. And then, before the thing, you look and now it's like, oh, I could have got 280. Cause it matters, you're going to lose a couple of bets on that and you're going to be pissed, completely agree. So still try to get the best of the number. But, um, you know, prop, props is the equivalent of a really small market and it's bigger than you know the curling or whatnot, but it's still relatively small. That, um, you're just gonna take the clv more with a grain of salt, as opposed to like world cup or, you know, like football I, I bet a few more props than I used to. 

37:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I almost never used to bet props before. Now. With the way that the market is heading, there's so many props offered you can find edges right. I'll tell you this in main market NFL, for example, if I make a bet and the market moves against me on an NFL side, I'm probably not going to load up at the updated number. Sometimes I will, but I would have to have an extreme amount of confidence in my number on that game. When a prop occasionally moves against me, I tend to double down on it. 

37:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Because it's not that much money. 

37:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right, and it's like, okay, I have an opinion on this and someone else obviously does in this market, but I don't value that market move as much as I would someone who's betting, like 50k on a side at pinnacle or 100k on a side at pinnacle on a sunday morning, right, that's very different yeah, world cup limits half a million and if you're trying to beat props right before a game. 

37:59 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You can tune in to primetime monday, thursday, friday, rob Pizzola, eric Eager Monday night, joey Knish, andrew Walker Thursday and Rob and Fabian Sommer Sunday night. They're handing out props 15, 20 minutes before game time, up on the air, all tracked in BetStamp in the marketplace, primetime NFL tracked in real time, updated during the game. So there you go. There's a perfect example. Thanks for answering. 

38:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was actually a question that just came in is updated during the game. So there you go, there's a perfect example. Thanks for answering. That was actually a question that just came in is where would I get player props before the game? So, thank you, zach. How? 

38:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
did. How did he know like that quick? 

38:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean he's, yeah, he's just on the ball, by the way 9.9 roi on the year prime time how many props? 

38:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
plus 12 and a half units we got a sample size 115 plays on the year on prime time. That's great, that's really cool if we dropped kanish from the lineup would be at. 

38:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We'd be at 50 roi, you got to tag him kanish and then sort filter by tag and he's going to be down 90 I'm actually I. 

38:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't actually want to split it out by creator on this because it will cause some sort of rivalry stuff to happen. Riff, I, I think I'm probably down the most I don't hit the drop. I, I, there was one. There was one game, it was uh, monday night football, halloween night. I think bengals and browns, I think me and eric, like just that was an atrocity, like oh for five on that night that killed us what happened to you, pizzola. I know, I know, um, but yeah, it's been a good year all right. 

39:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Next question was basically the same question, so we'll skip it. Basically, whoever asked, uh, if ufc clv is less indicative of success compared to NFL, yes, as we just mentioned. All right Up next, for a prop-based betting group, what is an ideal ROI? I'm assuming the bets you're placing have higher expected value attached to the full game. Is there a theory Like in theory, why wouldn't the ROI be much higher? 

40:00
So what I'd say is your ROI, it should always just be like your. Your ROI shouldn't necessarily it should be higher, but it shouldn't be necessarily that much higher. Reason for that is if you have unlimited resources, then there's no reason for like, let's say, you find some edges that are like 10%, you shouldn't just play those 10 percentage. You should still play down to like two percent, one percentage. So in that it's going to be a little blended. So a lot of people say like, oh yeah, props, you'd be earning like 15, like sure, if you only want to pick out like the best four per week, then you can do that, but if you want to make the most amount of money, you should still play down all the way to two. So I'd say you know, probably like 4%. 

40:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly just don't like questions like this. No offense to whoever asked it, I don't I don't know whose Twitter handle it was, or whatever but like, what is the ideal ROI? I mean it's it's really dependent on the person, right, like there's there's some. It depends on the amount of effort you're putting. There's so many things that go into it. What are your costs as a group for a prop based betting group? Okay, how many people are divvying up the money? Um, are you paying any additional costs in terms of, like, automation, whatever? How much are you giving? What percentage of your accounts are you giving to other people? Like, it's going to depend on the operation that you're running. So, like your ideal ROI is like whatever makes you happy. That's I, I. I don't like to answer questions like for, for what johnny's ideal roi is going to be is going to be very different from what mine is going to be. It's going to be very different from what, you know, some other groups are going to be all right, does the? 

41:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
okay these questions are. We got a lot of similar questions so we're going to skip the next two. Let's answer this one, okay. Does the closing line in a major market like nfl sides represent the true median outcome of the event? Okay, we can answer that. 

41:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The median yes, and I think because the limp of what the limits are prior to the the game going off or game getting started it's. It's an oddly worded right, because is it the true median outcome? No, is it the truest? Yes. Do you know what I'm getting at? It is the best we have. Exactly. So it might not be 100% true, but you have so many people betting into one market who are all like influencing the line, and if they're all influencing the line, and if they're all influencing the line, it's going to settle in a place that is mutually agreed on by winning bettors. So that is the truest representation of the median outcome. Are there going to be times where it doesn't look like that was the case? Of course there's going to be times where that doesn't happen, but if we look at everything that goes into it, it is the truest median outcome. 

42:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Of course, all right. Sportsbook questions. Here's one our proud sponsor Pinnacle. I heard Rob talk about the Pinnacle lean before. Can you explain what that means? 

43:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely so pinnacle is considered a sharp sports book and when I say that they do not limit winning bettors, pinnacle publishes their limits you can bet. What I can bet is what Johnny can bet, what's what producer Zach can bet. So when people talk about the pinnacle lean, we did an episode back in the day long time ago For those of you who are watching on YouTube, we weren't even a video show yet Episode 25 in podcast form with pro better Michael Craig, who's now part of the right angle sports team, and he talked about this phenomenon, the pinnacle lean. Essentially, when pinnacle has the best price in market, it's usually an indicator that they lean to that side of the game. 

43:56
They have received information from all of their bettors that are betting into their accounts that that is quote, unquote, the sharp side and, typically speaking, I've tracked my historical results when I'm betting into pinnacle best line in the market. You tend not to do all that well. This happens for all the sharp sports books that are out there, but because they are accepting action from sharps and not just rec bettors, for the most part they're shading a line where they think the number actually should be rather than where their customer base is going to bet, and that's what we talk about with the pinnacle lead. It's something that comes up all the time, but essentially when pinnacle has the best price in market, that's what the quote unquote. You know it's a good indicator of what the sharp side is in the game. 

44:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know it's a good indicator of what the sharp side is in the game, that is, the pinnacle lean. With. That being said, here's another reason why you need a pinnacle account. As we mentioned, you got to know what the real time odds are on pinnacle. We've got we've got pinnacle on the bet stamp. Odd screen it is. It is real time, pretty much real time time. I'm going to be honest with you right now. 

45:12
So pinnacle a lot of people claim to have like a real time pinnacle feed. Pinnacle what they do is whenever you're logged out of your account, the lines are like delayed by like five, six seconds, maybe sometimes 15 seconds. When you log into your account, they update right away, yep. So anyone who's got like a pinnacle feed is typically like a five, six second delay on what the market is. So if you're looking to really see like line movements before the game, stuff like that, you also just need to have a pinnacle account. 

45:44
I believe you need a certain amount of money in your account for it to like you, you can't have zero dollars in there, but I don't think it's much. It might be like 20 bucks, 30 bucks, something like that. You can. You can check it out on the site, but to have that account open is actually a true resource as well. So what I would say is, like you know, when I bet, I bet at pinnacle all the time. I like betting at pinnacle because I still think that I can beat the sports book, despite the fact that they are the sharpest. I still think I can beat them on some stuff. Maybe not everything, maybe not nfl sides, maybe not world cup, but I can definitely beat them on some stuff. You need to have pinnacle open, not only to actually play into the best line in the market, but also just to just to use it as a resource and see where they're, what lines are there. You might be able to get some info off them that could help you with other books. 

46:32
For like World Cup or for something like that. 

46:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And also I mean we do mention it. It is important we're extremely price sensitive. We bet into sports books because we think we can beat the sports book, but when you're betting into a lower hold as well, it's easier for you to win in the long run. Generally speaking, it's easier for you to win in the long run, generally speaking. You have a rate at which you have to. You know, 52.4% at minus 110. Once you start reducing the VIG, you need to win at a lower rate in the long run in order to profit, which I think is very important as well. Okay, by the way, I wish that my Craig one was in video form. 

47:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Craig-er. 

47:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Craig-er was a great. That was great. I we haven't done a repeat guests yet on circles off. We're still in the we're still in the double digits. Maybe when we get to the triple digits we'll consider some repeat grass guests. But Craig would be a good repeat guest. 

47:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so we got a couple of sports book questions. There's a lot of questions on like limiting accounts and how that works and stuff like that. It's um, it's very variable and, to be honest, like rob and I don't work for sportsbook. We we don't know, we don't know if we did, but like we try not to get limited but I I don't know it's. It's not easy that we can just say, hey, these are all the answers, this is what you do. And also, if we did say those on the air, then someone's going to hear those and then they're going to switch those up and then they're not going to actually do those things anyway. So I, I'm sorry we do get about, even in the dms, 10 to 15 questions every couple weeks about this stuff and uh, apologies to anyone that it's like very hard for us to answer and and it's not because we don't want to, we just don't know. 

48:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've consulted for many sports books in the past. I can tell you just from experience it's universally very different by book. Some books are very on top of this stuff. Some books are not on top of this stuff. Some books depends on the amount you deposit in the first place that you're going to be profiled in some way. Some books don't care about that, they care about other stuff, so on and so forth. 

48:37
So I agree with Johnny, like the whole the questions about um. You know, if I do this will I get limited type of situation. It's like who knows? Some books it's automated, some books it's manually, a trader looking at something every single day. Some days are somebody not looking? Some books are somebody not looking at it for two weeks? Some books like pinnacle. You're never going to get limited. So like it just depends on the book and I can speak to past experiences. But it's not helpful in any way because first of all, those are in the past. Things could have changed in five years for every book. That's very likely what's happened and on top of that that my experiences are in the offshore space and be very different in the regulated space. So I don't think that it's like anything that we would say in regards to this is just guesswork, and I don't like being in the business of guesswork. 

49:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough, all right, so we're going to move on. We got two more sections. There's a couple of personal questions for Rob and I. I here, oh boy, um. So we'll tackle the. You know, we'll tackle the media questions first, and then personal for anyone who uh, doesn't, uh, doesn't give a shit about uh, rob or I. So number one, media questions. We've got three of these and then we'll get on to the, the personals. I've gotten burned by tailing twitter cappers before and I didn't know any better. I'm sorry to hear that. What are some of the telltale signs to avoid? How do I know if someone isn't what they say? They are, and I believe we did get some dms as well from a few people, or this person that asked as well where do I start? 

50:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
where do we? Where do we? First of all, like, probably don't tail Twitter cappers unless there's some sort of verified, documented line history in Betstamp. I mean, it's pretty easy to spin up a fake Google sheet. I've seen it before. People just delete plays from a. You know they'll link a Google sheet of their history to their profile and you can take a screen cap of it. And then you go back like three weeks later and their previous year's records have changed because it's just that easy. It's not documented by third party, so even a trusted Google sheet probably not a good indicator of it. 

50:41
People do recap their own records as well on their own Twitter timeline. Honestly, I do like to see that, but you can still be taken astray by that. For one, not a lot of people recap their closing line value. They only care cap their records. And again, if somebody over a 200 play sample is up 10 units and you don't know their closing line value, you probably don't really have an indicator of whether or not they're going to be successful in the long run. So um, telltale signs to avoid straight up. If they're not third party documented, then they're probably avoidable. 

51:15
Now there's other things that immediately set off flags to me. Like my friends do this. I'm in a group chat with all my friends. They're constantly looking for people on Twitter that they can tail, because they don't want to do any work, they just want to follow people's picks. Please don't get me started on this, chadi. This is my group of friends and they'll send me to like someone's account and be like oh, this person. Like you know, I think, what do you think of this person? Or whatever. 

51:41
General rule of thumb, probably 99% applicable. If someone has a pinned tweet of like a winning day, perfect day, from three weeks ago, I would avoid that person at all costs, all costs, because now they're in the business of marketing themselves rather than just posting. And anyone who's in the business of marketing themselves like that probably not someone I want to tail. On picks, that's just one that really irks me. Like go to someone's profile page pin tweet from four weeks ago patting themselves on the back for a four and O night. It's like, why has that pin tweet not been updated for one? Like it's not, if you're pinning a tweet, you're someone that pins tweets multiple times. Second of all, like marketing one like marketing 101, like it's a great way to market yourself. I don't want to be taken um, you know, taken out back by a marketer. Let's put it that way. So that's a telltale sign to avoid. But there's so many, there's so many. Maybe we need to redo one of those early episodes. How do? 

52:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you. How do you search on twitter for to find a very, very old tweet I want to find. I I did a tweet thread about this when we like about two years ago. I wrote up myself and then released it from the bet stamp and I'd love to bring that up again. What I'd say is a recent one that, um, I've noticed a lot is uh, if anyone says that they have info on a fixed match, probably don't want to buy that info. Now, I don't think that needs to be said, but I'll say it anyways. And then the second thing Rob mentioned like if they have a pinned tweet, they're more marketing. Another one is like, if they're actually paying for advertising, like legit paid ads on Instagram or Twitter, that's also a very telltale sign. You don't want to be buying pics from someone who's paying to show you hey, I won six. Like it's. It's obviously fraud. It's obviously like no, I wouldn't call it fraud. It's obviously misrepresentation that they're doing. Are you able to find an? 

53:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
old tweet. I'm looking for it. I remember the thread and I remember Rufus commenting on it. I think that's how I'm trying to search for it I wish twitter had a better search function. 

53:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Man, how do you, how do you search for, like a, an account? 

53:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
in there. Just put the ad in front of the account at bet stamp. Do you know any words that were in part of the tweet? If you can remember some words, this will be very easy I. 

54:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I gotta tell you guys this just real quick while you're trying to find this this isn't a twitter cap or anything but like because of now, where I work and doing the Hammer stuff I have friends who just reach out to me and by no means am I someone who should be giving advice on different stuff, but they'll be like oh, what do you think of this strategy? Or whatever. So one of my buddies he's still at school and he texted me two weeks ago he goes hey, my roommate has been betting these parlays every NFL Sunday and he hasn't lost yet. Like, what do you think of this strategy? I was like, all right, like let's hear it, this is his strategy. He takes every favorite and he goes on I don't know, I'll just leave the book out. He goes on a book where you can get alt lines on the favorite and takes them to the max amount. 

54:54
Alt line Like on the alt line. Wait, wait, like teaser or teaser, so like on the spread. 

55:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So let's say they're minus six, does he take like minus 20 or does he take plus 20? 

55:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Plus 20. Oh okay, highest he can go. And then he bets like he parlays every game that day on that, and then he bets like 200 bucks on it or whatever and he's like. 

55:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's no way this team could ever lose by this amount and he's like they're obviously going to cover that. 

55:22 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And I just said, dude, one time it's going to burn you, One team is going to lose and and you're gonna hate your life. I'm like, just like, I get it, I get why you think this is a good idea, but like one time it's gonna bite you in the ass and you're gonna be like, ah, damn when I was like 23 years old, I was working at the score as a radio producer. 

55:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I used to produce like a college football saturday and one of the hosts every week just he didn't bet anything against the spread, didn't bet totals, he just put together one money line parlay for the day with like all these massive favorites and I would be like you know, the first couple weeks he would win and he just come to me off. He's like I don't understand why people bet spreads like this. This team is not like. This team is a 34 point favorite, they're not going to lose and they parlay them all. And I didn't know any better. And I did this for a long time and then realized, yes, obviously big favorites lose all the time in college football, like it happens so consistently. And yeah, it was just like yeah, it's not going to lose 20, 20, 28-point favorite at home. 

56:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, the thing is it never happens until it does right A 16. Never, ever in history upset a one seed in March Madness, until they did, until they did. And then what happens, you know, like now parlaying all the one seeds for 30 years, you're down money. 

56:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I worked that, so I was a degenerate better at that time as well, but I was working alongside other degenerate betters and I hate this is off topic on the q a, but every year I won't say his name just because good, he's a really good guy, really like enjoyed working with him. But every year at march madness guy would look, come in with like a massive bag of money to the office and give it to a guy and be like I need you to put 10 000 bucks on every one seed for me money line first round. And I just remember one year just like a really uncomfortable office moment where like one of the one of the one seeds was just like down the whole game and this guy watching it. I'm like I can never. 

57:32
I can never get to this point in life where I'm sweating a one seat at like 10 000 to win 100 and just like dying on every possession bucket and yelling at the tv and whatever, and I was like this is like, if I get to this, I need to stop and I'll never forget those days. I wonder if he still did that when I left because, like, maybe, maybe, maybe he lost. I wouldn't want to be around him at that time. 

57:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, I found the thread, by the way. 

58:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I found a betting media thread, by the way, for me, that you tweeted on October 8, 2020 about, like, how to identify like frauds. Yeah, that's what. 

58:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm going to read right now. Is it the same one? Does it start by betting media breaking better wins $1 million. 

58:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so that's the one, but I'm going to laugh when you get to, so so here's what we're going to do. 

58:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm going to see if it still holds up, okay, okay, yeah, all right. Number one one. So so I wrote this thread two years ago. We'll read it back, we'll see. Actually, if it still holds up, I might be mistaken. Things change. Maybe I have a different view on some stuff now. I'll let you know. So what I claim here is that I can identify 99 percent of losing bettors simply by analyzing one bet screenshot that they post. All right, and now you can too, if you listen to this Number one, check which sports book the bet was placed at. 

58:56
All right, this is the easiest one by a mile. Okay, it's not right a hundred percent of the time, but this is the 99%. Okay, there's some sharp books or some recreational books. Some books will literally not let. The limit is not $1 million. So if someone bets 200,000 to win a million and the screenshots on a recreational book, then either, then it 99% of the time. We'll keep it at that. They are losing better. That has a whale account, that can bet whatever because they lost so much money. So that's that's flag number one. 

59:27
If someone posts betting screenshot and it's from Pinnacle, then you don't know, you don't guarantee that's legit, but you know that Pinnacle doesn't limit and that was their standard limit. Nothing fishy going on. He won that bet, congrats. At the minimum, you know that he's betting a big amount of money into a sharp book, all right. So, number one this holds true for both big and small bets, right? So? Is a tout trying to sell you plates claiming a 70% win rate but then sending you screenshots from a single sports book? That is quick to limit winners, right? So if someone is still only posting like a hundred dollar bets, but they're like, yeah, I'm up a 17 grand, like you're probably not, cause you're going to get limited if you're doing that and and sending it, so probably the that is the easiest way. You look at the screenshot, you see what kind of book they're posting from easiest. 

01:00:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Two things on that one, though. The first is the screenshot is likely it could be. There's scenarios where people alter screenshots of their book, so like there's scenarios that in the past where I've seen that people just post fake screenshots. But what actually gets me about people who do this is that they're oblivious to the fact that by posting that screenshot People can look it up that they've, but they can look it up for one but they've actually outed themselves as a losing bettor. 

01:00:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If they're getting those limits, you know what I'm getting at In theory. Yeah, they don't realize it. They don't actually realize it. Yes, exactly, okay. Next, check the risk amount. Okay, bookmakers aren't dumb. The ones that cut limits of winning players often raise the limits of other losing players, meaning, if they're willing to offer customer A higher limits than you have at your book, you've likely found losing better Likely 99%. All right, check how many screenshots were posted. All right, this is a big one. 

01:01:08
Okay, we preach line shopping having multiple accounts. You want pinnacle. You also want all the other accounts, because that's how you're going to get the best value and win sports betting right. So it takes many accounts to win with many books in order to actually achieve a desired bet size for most pro bettors. If you have one book, you're probably not going to get enough money down. So, yes, there are pros who bet one million dollars guaranteed a game, many of them. There are no pros that bet a million dollars a game and it's all through one account. It doesn't happen. So most rec books won't even accept deposits that big like it's hard to get, like I, I it's hard to get that much money, even into your account. Now it's possible. 

01:01:48
Again, I'm not saying any of this is 100%. But if someone has like a million dollars in their account, like it's very unlikely that they're like a super big winner. Number five another seemingly obvious one that flies under the radar. But check the odds on the wager okay. So if the screenshot shows Baltimore Ravens minus 7.5, but Baltimore minus 7 is available everywhere then this person didn't even get the best number currently. So it doesn't hold true a hundred percent of the time. But if you're not getting at least the market price, you're probably losing better. So if you're getting like negative CLV meaning you're taking a half point, full point worse on your screenshot it's a red flag. 

01:02:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to add to this one. If it's not a screenshot and someone posts Baltimore ATS and doesn't give a number, I would also highly suggest avoiding that person, because if they are not diligent enough to even give you a number on the game that they think it's worth betting at, then, like that opinion should not be trusted. Like MLB Orioles money line Okay, what's the money line? Like, what am I betting here? What are you betting here? So I hate stuff like that. 

01:02:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, throw those out as well, all right, number six would a pro post a screenshot? Most pro bettors do not want their bet screenshots circulating on Twitter for a number of reasons. You definitely don't want a bet screenshot that has a ticket ID number, because then people will see that that's your account. There's people that work at the sports book that could see that. So, even if you are winning, you don't want that out there. It just doesn't really make much sense. If your numbers are moving the markets as well, you'd kind of want to keep that info safe. You don't want to be pushing that out there. Hey, this is what I bet. You don't want to give your full betting history to anyone. If you are like a true pro, right Number seven. 

01:03:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
before you go on there, I have to stop you. I'm guilty of six. This is why I said I was going to laugh at number six. I. There's nothing that bothers me more than people questioning my authenticity bothers me more than people questioning my authenticity. So whenever I have a chance to put someone in their place, I'm going to do it. I I am definitely in the minority of this, because as soon as I post a screenshot, I'm going to get messages from my partners, betting partners, people I know of like hey, why would you? Why would you post that? Or whatever. Because I cannot stand. I like to put people in their place. So this is where you mad bro. 

01:04:13
I do get mad when I see a screenshot of like, oh like, great pick Pizzola. Like I'm going to bury that person because they deserve it, fair enough. So this one I won't put it. You know what? It probably still is 99%. I'm probably in the 1%. Yeah, exactly 99 out of 100. But I had to laugh because I am guilty of this. So I don't want to be hypocritical. I've posted many screenshots of big wins before. I don't post the screenshots of big losers, because why? 

01:04:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
would I Agree You're going to post only winners, but still, it's not again. Nothing here is guaranteed. Not again, nothing here is guaranteed. I don't like to say that, but so far I still agree with all the stuff I typed up two years ago. Yep, two and a half years ago actually. Um number seven don't let the media add credibility. This is the most obvious one. Um, just because someone in mainstream media wrote an article, that doesn't mean the betters. You don't mean dust. Articles are out there for everything, not just sports betting. You can't just take a headline and assume credibility in people. It's ridiculous right now. 

01:05:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
How many people think Mattress Mac is like a winning bettor? 

01:05:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, now they do. Yeah, the average person does Like this guy won the most. How is he not a winning bettor? He won the most money ever in sports betting ever the biggest single game, payout or whatever. Listen I. 

01:05:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I really single game payout or whatever I said. I don't want to disrespect every single person in the media because there are some good people out there. That guy parlay pats. 

01:05:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was featuring all these things. That guy ended up. I don't even know the story, but that guy was like lost all his money and then started like doing some. I don't even know what it was. 

01:05:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's been so many stories over the years which I can point to that are like who? The problem is that so many people who are writing in the sports betting media right now just shouldn't be. They shouldn't like they don't have the credibility or the knowledge of the space that is required in order to write an article about it. Sad to say, that's not to say there aren't good people out there, but I think this one is a huge one. Like just be very careful of it yeah, so that that was it. 

01:06:11
Those were the seven ways you can identify fraud bettors. 

01:06:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a few more that we can think of now, obviously, but that was just. If someone posts a betting screenshot, look at all those things and you're probably gonna find a. You know a fraud better. That's not actually a big winner. So there you have it. Um. Hopefully you guys found that valuable. A couple other things here. Um, who in the mainstream media do you believe is somewhat insightful on betting sports? A great segue here. 

01:06:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is tough because I don't follow a lot of people in the mainstream media. Um and like there's definitely people who you know work, work for CBS, for example. That can be super insightful. Bud Elliott would be one that comes to mind Big college football guy. You can usually tell, like, who the actual bettors are versus who are the people that just talk about betting. I think that's like the biggest one. But like insightful, like who in the mainstream media is providing actual insight on betting sports right now? 

01:07:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't like. I mean when Preston was on daily wager he was trying his best, but the thing is like, a lot of times these shows don't really enable you to be able to give out the info because they want to be more entertainment based. So it's hard to like explain certain things about line movement and whatnot. Like I. I like, like I'm talking mainstream US right now In Canada. There's no one, by the way, on any of these networks that knows anything about sports betting. And when I say knows anything about sports betting, I'm not saying the rules. People know the rules for the most part. There's a lot of people who don't actually know the rules and still do it, give out picks and then don't even know that. That's like the incorrect grading for the picks, for example, saying, oh, this guy lost my bet because this quarterback got sacked and he lost like seven rushing yards like bud don't count as a sack, like that's not called. That's college football, not nfl. 

01:07:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But losses parlay because of the push. 

01:08:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like actually no no, you, just you just push, they just remove that wager yeah, and these are people on tv, obviously, but when we look at the, uh, the us, I mean we've had doug kazarian on the podcast before. Uh, I think doug, you know, maybe not, he's, maybe not the sharpest pro, better in the world, but uh, he's someone that definitely understands the way betting works and I do hand it to him. He does bet himself and he actually, you know, he bets for real. He's not. 

01:08:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's not betting like he was on the show talking about how he found a big edge yeah, yeah, yeah and was able to get down and Power to Dougie K. 

01:08:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He bets. He's on ESPN Daily Wager. He hosts an ESPN podcast for betting. 

01:08:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the thing with Doug is like I imagine there will be people that give us flack for this, for saying Doug, because he's on air giving out picks on a daily show, right, which is like okay, I get it. And there'll be people that give us flack for it. But like, doug bets himself and he's very in tune with the betting space period that's in our inarguable. Whether you agree with giving out picks or not on national airwaves, okay, that's a different story, but this is part of the part of the issue is you know I people ask me all the time this is actually true. People ask me in the DMs like, why have you not gotten a job? Like talking about betting for like a major media company he does. 

01:09:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's called the Hammer Betting Network. 

01:09:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thank you, thank you, zach Hammerbet, check it out. But no, seriously, for years people are like oh, why are you not working with them? Like they hired this guy, they hired that guy. And like, why, why are you not doing this? Stuff is like I've pitched ideas to major companies before. They're not interested in anything but giving out picks on the airwaves or giving out the live odds to help promote their sponsor. 

01:09:44
Like it starts at the top level. Right, people are always upset with limiting sportsbooks, limiting players. Okay, sportsbooks are going to do that because the regulators allow them to do that. Right, you're running a business as a sportsbook. People are winning money off of you. You can limit them and no one's going to do anything about it. Why do you think it's prevalent? Because the regulators are not putting practices into place to prevent that from happening. Same thing happens with betting content and the mainstream media. Right, it starts at the top level. When people at the top level of companies don't understand how betting works, they think they do. This is the problem, right? How many bettors out there think they have it figured out? 

01:10:27
50 I'd say even higher than that. I know this guy, I'm tailing this guy. Oh we, you know I'll. I literally had someone and I'm not going to give specifics because it's not fair and I don't want to and I'm not calling people out but I had a major tv exec call me and say we're interested in doing this with you. This is a couple years ago. We have brought on this guy, this person, and they plug this person as if they were like the billy walters of betting and they were a fraud, like complete fraud, tout was it yanni, the greek from the ufc? 

01:10:59
I, I'm not, I'm not. I'm not gonna give details. I honestly don't want to give specifics. It's not fair to specific people. However, it starts at the top level, so in mainstream media there's just not a lot you don't have. You know, if you want to be insightful on sports betting, you're. You're just not really given the platform to do so. 

01:11:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I do miss preston on daily wager but everyone on tv is also like up on their wagers, right, because they always just they have to put a graphic in that's positive, right. The same way they're going to put, uh, aaron rogers 11-2 on the road in chicago when, like you know what I mean, the, the packers are trash this year and he's losing all his games, but he's aiden owen versus the bears last eight. So like, this is what people do. And then on top of that, with the betting stuff, it's like you look on espn, they had, they had Yanni the Greek doing contender series. Like this guy was, like I think he was like three and 16. 

01:11:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That guy was the most insightful guy in sports, cause you could just bet the opposite of everything. 

01:11:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I honestly, I don't know exact record I'm spitballing here, but he's like three and 16 and Dana Wentz contender series and they put the graphic up like a three and O last three main events Cause he won the main event, cause he won the main event. 

01:12:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But don't you? You got to as a sports better. You obviously know that the main events are like the are worth a lot more. They're worth more, they're worth more amount yeah, double two unit bets. 

01:12:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But like this, this one, I'm saying, even when you look at all these shows, they're giving out records and stuff, like it's always going to be something and if it's something else and it'll be like okay, well, now we don't show the record anymore. So it's hard to actually have someone who's in like mainstream media. What I mean by that is like on TV before the game and stuff like that. 

01:12:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I guess Scott Van Pelt would be like a good ambassador for betting, right, like he's not really necessarily giving out picks but he's into, like he has a following that bets. He relates to the betters in terms of insight. Probably not a whole lot, no-transcript, but it's tough because I mean and, and like I, I wanted to, I wanted to talk about that and say that because I don't think it's necessarily the fault of their, of the creators. Right, like a good friend of mine, we've had multiple friends of ours who've worked. Rufus worked for ESPN. Right, they just wanted him to give up. He flunked out after he went like one and eight. They said later Rufus, you're supposed to be a pro, better, but like no one would even understand that anyone could go one and eight and nine pro better. 

01:13:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We want stew finer we want stew finer. 

01:13:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Later, rufus they said rufus is a dog's name, don't let the door hit you on the way out. That's basically what they said to him. Uh, but that that's like it starts at the top level, like you're not given the creative control. So when people message me and they're like, oh, why don't you work for, why don't you do this, why don't you do that? It's because they don't want to give me control to talk about betting in the way that I think is important. Most people just want picks, sad reality, and that's how you end up with the space that we have. 

01:14:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Agreed. It's tough. All right, this one, I mean I'll just ask someone to answer. Someone asked it. Why does Adam Chernoff have a platform and the approval of other public pro bettors when he himself is a confirmed scammer? I'll answer this. 

01:14:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We've had Adam Chernoff on this program before. I would call Adam Chernoff a personal friend of mine. He has not ever hidden the fact that he was a confirmed scammer. So for people who don't know, when Adam was in his teens he actually talked about this on our program as well. It's not like this is like he. Just he ran like a tout service, made a lot of mistakes in the process. 

01:14:39
If I just held everyone accountable like and never gave anyone in life a second chance for something they did in their twenties. Like what are we doing here? Like I think he has now reestablished himself as someone in the space who's trustworthy, who is not, you know, running these types of scams anymore. Why does he have the approval of other public pro bettors? For that reason, I think he's just reestablished himself. So I don't think it's like. I think it's fair to give people second chances in life on on certain things, obviously within reason, oh, I'll point out. But like running a scam tout service when you're a teenager doesn't qualify as being blacklisted from the betting space for the rest of your life. In my opinion, fair enough. Like like he's extremely knowledgeable. He comes with a like a he's obviously been hired by right angle sports, which is one of the most prospective. It is the most respective pick selling service in North America. He's been hired by them. They obviously see something in him. 

01:15:38
He he's just like. It's like one of those things where I was 22 years old I ran an infomercial for Covers. It's my first job, on-air gig. Covers experts live on national TV in the score interviewing basically scam decappers on a daily basis and trying to sell a Covers product to an audience. I was getting paid like $38,000 a year, had no idea. All I wanted was to be on air and I loved it. I had zero idea of what I was doing at that time. If someone wanted to hold me accountable for that, get a life Like people. 

01:16:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Change is what I will say, but when are you selling your hockey picks? 

01:16:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean maybe next year. 

01:16:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right. 

01:16:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe, maybe, maybe it'll be up at the hammer dot bet, Maybe they'll, maybe I don't know. Who knows what the future holds. You heard? 

01:16:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it here first. Rob Pizzola is going to be selling his hockey picks next season. 

01:16:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do have a like. Honestly, it's it's not within the realm of possibilities or outside of the realm of possibilities that I would ever do that Like people don't really understand what it takes to grind out a living betting. There's some people who do it extremely. 

01:17:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Grinding out that rent money, Uncle K. 

01:17:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's people that do it extremely successfully, right, and they love it. I hate it. Like I seriously hate betting. I hate being at a computer and like I'm not quite at the point of like the spanky piss jar stuff. Like I have a washroom down the hallway but I take my phone with me when I'm taking a leak because if something is happening I'm going to rush back to the computer midly. I know it stings when you hold it, but I'll hold it and run back Stings a little bit, but like I hate that. I hate having to be available at all times, Right? So if I could monetize something that I think is worthwhile for other people and like not have the sweat of having to be around for the daily grind of of betting yeah I would do that. 

01:17:57
It's possible, but if you're looking for, rob's hockey picks or hockey insight. 

01:18:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
you can find him on edgework every friday morning on the edgework youtube channel at 10 30 am eastern time myself, rob and andy mcneil breaking down that slate of NHL games for the Friday night Occasional picks. 

01:18:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What we, what people don't know, is we actually? We don't actually pay producer Zach Phillips like a set salary. We pay him by the plug. Did you know that? That's in his contract, Johnny? We, he gets paid by the plug for this. 

01:18:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, that wasn't a plug. Someone asked a question when to get Pizzola's hockey pass. 

01:18:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh sorry, where to find Pizzola? I see it. 

01:18:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I see it came in now, all right so we got a couple of questions here actually on match fixing. This one's going to sound like I'm misreading this, but I'm not. I'm just going to read it as it is. Do you think it's possible for a betting syndicate to gain enough influence that sports books are forced to invite them to their script writing and trap line setting meetings, or will those events always take place in better only environments? 

01:18:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Can you read the next one too? Let's combine them in the end. 

01:19:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, this one. If the NFL is using electromagnets to control the flight of the balls during field goals and extra points, how long? Until long snappers start serotipitously using demagnetizers? Oh, of course, and then when do we start incorporating that into our models? Then we got one more other than the world cup 2002 italy versus south korea. Can you name one game you believe was 100 rigged okay? 

01:19:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so lots, lots going on here in the match fixing section what are we going to talk? 

01:19:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
about okay, this, this is ridiculous for the okay, well, match matches are obviously not fixed, but then also some are fixed. Let's be as it is are there? 

01:19:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
are there probably like some division one, like random college division one college basketball games that could be fixed? Maybe tennis matches it's probably happened or time boxing come on, someone in the ufc. Just what was involved in some sort of like predetermined outcome? 

01:20:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, yeah yeah, so, um, james kraus. Look it up, james kraus like he's a coach, trainer and a fighter himself and uh, there's some suspicious activity going on at uh it fights involving james kraus and uh, he may have had some betting accounts open in new jersey. It's unconfirmed yet. He may have or may not have. All we do know right now is the new jersey department of gaming enforcement has prohibited any new jersey book from taking action on any fight involving james kraus or anyone on his team. 

01:20:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sincerely, sincerely concerned for some people's mental health out there on this, on this topic, they're just joking about the electromagnetic. 

01:20:47
Oh, I know these questions are jokes, but they stem from other people who actually believe this stuff, which is the crazy part. Also, what's crazy is the notion of Vegas knows. We've talked about this before. I don't know why Vegas knows and nobody else knows. No one else outside of Vegas knows, just Vegas. 

01:21:06
But you had access to like, let's say, inside information on a game. Right, you knew someone was hurt, wasn't going to play, it's going to take a dive, let's, they're going to take it, the quarterback's going to throw this game right and you know this. Is your first call going to be to the Vegas sports book and say, hey, guys, first call going to be to the Vegas sports book and say, hey, guys, just want to let you know that the quarterback is going to take a dive today and I just want to make you guys aware of this? Or is your first call going to be to someone else? It's like, hey, I got some info, I need you to bet a lot on this and give me a big bet on it. They say we got to hit the books we got to hit the books. 

01:21:50
Every. 

01:21:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Monday and Friday on the Hammer Betting Network. 

01:21:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Joey Kanish, All right, go ahead yeah it's good Joey Kanish, brad Powers on Monday, joey Kanish, tom Casale on Friday. That's banger of a show, absolute big bomb banger. But honestly, like the Vegas knows, things is so absurd. Like how would they know and nobody else knows? How would they know? Is it because of these scripted meetings? I guess they're part of the meetings, but only Vegas is part of the meetings. Well, a couple of things. 

01:22:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's one international company called Sport Radar. They have like data contracts with a lot of the sports leagues, like NFL Actually, I think they just lost the NFL deal, but they have European soccer stuff like that and they have a fraud department that deals with sports betting and potential match fixing and occasionally they do identify a couple fixed matches that come on, maybe one or two a year, and the way they do it is they'll see a ton of suspicious bets come in on one side right before the game and then it's like a game of suspicious bets come in on one side right before the game and then it's like a game where they can investigate and be like all right, well, clearly this thing happened and it's. It was probably fixed and they'll rectify that. And in in terms of like legal stuff, I do believe sometimes there's like criminal charges that are handed out, whether it be the players or the people behind it. So I do I do think there are fixed matches. 

01:23:04
I'm not going to say there's not n very unlikely, but yeah, there are fixed matches. Most of them are like low level soccer leagues, low level like European basketball or like, like you know, call it out of USA basketball and Toronto Raptors, so out of NBA basketball. And then there has been a lot of like fixed like small, small things like table tennis. I'm not suggesting that nothing in the history of the world has been a lot of like fixed like small, small things like table tennis. 

01:23:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not suggesting that nothing in the history of the world has been fixed, but, like these major market events, if there was ever going to be like match fixing, it would be the betters that would benefit from it. It's not the sports book that's benefiting from it, it's the betters trying to beat the book. The book is going to win. Guys Like the book is going to win. They don't have to go out of their way to come up with some sort of scripted games Like they're charging you a vig to make your bet and then you're going to go out on top of it and you're going to start parlaying and you're going to start teasing games through zero and teasing college football totals and you're going to do all this insane shit. 

01:24:06
The book is going to win. There is no incentive for them to match fix. The match fixing would come on the better side, where the better now has an advantage over the books. So like I'm not suggesting that that's the case, by the way, but that's where it would happen. The good news is, only Vegas knows and because Pinnacle is based in Ontario, they obviously don't know. And you still have a chance to win if you do bet at pinnacle, because they're not located on the strip. 

01:24:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, let's say, other than world cup 2002, italy, south korea, can you name one game you believe was 100% rigged? So I don't have a specific game, but I do. I do feel a couple boxing matches were rigged, and I don't necessarily think they are rigged in terms of like fighter taking a dive, except for that one fight a couple years back exhibition match overseas, floyd versus a guy by the name of Tenshin Nishikawa. If you go watch the fight, this guy took the biggest dive. He literally got hit by Floyd on a jab and flew back into the, into the, into the ropes. It was a crazy one. 

01:25:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Do you think, though, that maybe that he just like he just wanted to get paid and, like this, didn't want to get punched anymore? Probably, like oh yeah, there's another explanation to it being fixed, which is just like this guy just didn't want to get like punched in the head a bunch of times. 

01:25:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you watch this though it's jokes like it's, it's, it's actually jokes, but so that one for sure, uh was fixed. Then you look at a couple big level boxing matches which I do feel there was like and this isn't necessarily a fix, I was like paid before, but, like the judges, something went on like there's no way. The first fight, tyson fury versus deontay wilder, number one ended in a draw and there's just no way it adds up to a draw. Like the rounds are just off, there's no way. So uh, tyson Fury won that fight easily by decision, despite the knockdown in the final round by Deontay Wilder. Go look at the rounds. It's not even close. 

01:26:02
There's been a ton of UFC fights where it's been like, oh well, what the hell happened here, but those weren't like. Those are three round fights where it's like like, oh well, what the hell happened here, but those weren't like. Those are three round fights where it's like, okay, one round, one round you gave. Okay, fine, I can sure it's rigged, but whatever, that boxing match was one of the biggest in the world at the time, complete travesty. There was Canelo versus Triple G I believe it was number one which was also a draw, where it was like, okay, that was not a draw, like go look at the rounds, it doesn't add up, and it's always one judge is around, one judge is there, and it's like you kind of something shady. 

01:26:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It makes you hate boxing. You get the feeling of it but like it also could be human error. 

01:26:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It could be, but human error, like there's no way you gave those rounds to Deontay Wilder. Just look at the thing, it doesn't happen. Listen and oh, it's a draw. It's always a draw. So why? Why is it a draw? But then think of it like you know. If we're detectives here, what's the motive? Another fight, they draw, bigger payday. Right now you do a trilogy. Oh, they draw. Oh, oh, wow, we all made extra well, that's what I'm gonna say. 

01:27:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So like it's technically not a that technically wouldn't be like a sports book fix or a better fix. It would just be to like grow the sport. But first of all, this question brings back horrible memories because 2002, italy South Korea. My parents are of Italian heritage. I, prior to this year's world cup, where Italy's not in in Canada, was I would always be rooting for Italy in the World Cup. I vividly remember this match. If you are to look up the highlights of this match on YouTube, this referee they got to him Like the ref. They got to him. There's still a chance that Italy could have won the game. But they got to a point where he just stopped calling fouls against South Korea, as blatant as they were, and he also gave Francesco Totti a second yellow, a red card for diving in the box when he was clearly fouled in that game caused the Italian coach at the time I believe it was Trapattoni, but I don't remember to throw a TV or smash a TV on the sidelines, but that one was definitely World Cup in South Korea. They wanted South Korea to advance that ref. I'd say highly likelihood they got to him. 

01:28:21
South Korea then faced Spain in the next round. That match was just as egregious. If you look at the highlights for that one, you will see very similar. So I do think that there are times where this happens In terms of can you name one game that you believe was 100% rigged? No, I cannot. I can name a game, though that comes to mind as one where I've watched it and I watched it again and I felt like there was something going on. Super Bowl 40 XL, biggest stage what, what teams? 

01:29:00
steelers and seahawks hasselbeck, hasselbeck, rothlisberger I think the final is 21 10 in that game. 

01:29:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The referee for that game you're claiming fixed. 

01:29:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Nope, I'm just claiming extremely poor officiating. One way that got me wondering whether or not it was fixed. Bill Levy was the referee for that game and man, it was just like the worst ref game. Like every every call that could favor the Steelers or go against the Seahawks in that game did. And again, by far the most likely explanation is human error. But I was pretty young at the time watching this game and I thought to myself this is something's up here. That was my thought watching the game. Would it ever happen in the Super Bowl? I don't think so. 

01:29:57
Bill Levy has actually talked about this game publicly afterwards where he says that like he literally said that he screwed up. Bill Levy has actually talked about this game publicly afterwards where he says that like he, he literally said that he screwed up and didn't understand the rules of the game. I'm not joking, but what was the? What was the bad call? There was also there was mispass interference. Is a pass interference? Like the whole game was reffed as if it might've. It was like Mike Tomlin, it actually was Bill Cowher at the time. Pretty sure, pretty sure it was a Bill Cowher game. 

01:30:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I found the Floyd versus tension video. You're telling me this is not fixed. Wait for this. This is Wait for this. Wait for, oh man. 

01:30:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh no. 

01:30:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
A second jump back. 

01:30:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There is contact there though? 

01:30:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, of course, but look at this second, jump back. 

01:30:45 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Can? There is contact there though? Oh, of course, but look at this second jump back. This is incredible podcasting. 

01:30:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Incredible. We'll play this one, but that one I expected it to be more egregious. 

01:30:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, this is only one of the four. Okay, okay. 

01:30:58 - Zack Phillips (Other)
This is only one of the four dives he takes he needed to make it good. 

01:31:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, okay, this is only one of the four dives he takes. He needed to make it good. Also, while doing this, I may have uncovered a potential conspiracy that no one knows about right now. So we just mentioned that a couple weeks ago, james Krause was actually found in a trial. Now for match fixing. 

01:31:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'd search Floyd versus Tension on YouTube. There you go, but let's put on the tinfoil hats before we do it. 

01:31:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, look what I actually found Mayweather vs Tension was not fake. 

01:31:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
James Krause explains no, it's all coming together how. 

01:31:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why was James Krause claiming that that fight wasn't fake? First of all, unless he himself knows how to fake fights? 

01:31:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Your computer's listening to you. They know we were just talking about james kraus. You know what I forgot about that and they they've served this up. But like they've served it up at the perfect time for us, henceforth we will be known as the match fixing podcast instead of circles off. Okay, but you want to know something? 

01:32:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
really sad, no no, but this is crazy. I searched floyd versus tension fake, yeah. And then I go down it says mayweather versus tension was not fake. James krauss explains it's all. 

01:32:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what we're gonna have to bring back the conspiracy videos. I'm not joking. This is one of zach's first things I had him do when he started with bet stamp was on this wall next to Johnny over here. We have a green screen and I'd have him film a daily video about a conspiracy in sports betting for YouTube shorts. Some of these were popping off. People love the conspiracy videos. 

01:32:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Kurt Schilling was he bleeding? Was it ketchup? What were some of the best ones that you did? Was he? 

01:32:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
bleeding. Was it ketchup? What were some of the? 

01:32:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
best ones that you did the Michael Phelps Olympics. There's claims that his pad was way more sensitive than the ones beside him, because if you watch the video it's literally the camera, the way the camera is set. But if you watch the video it looks like the guy beside him gets a fingernail touch ahead of him, but his sensor triggered first. They think his was more sensitive so that he would win. 

01:33:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You still have to get to a neck-and-neck scenario. 

01:33:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was so close, but it does appear that Michael Phelps was second to touch the wall and there's an argument that maybe the water pressure or whatever caused it. I don't know, it was a guy with a buzzer up top, you don't know. 

01:33:23 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Any other big ones I'm trying to think about. There was the tennis one with um oh man, it's escaping me right now, but it was the guy who faced off it was the battle of the sexes yes, battle of the success. 

01:33:35
Things like an intentional loss through through the match. Yes, uh, for tv ratings, um. And then the other one is obviously the one. I actually watched the documentary about it the other day. It's the Tim Donaghy stuff, but it's not him specifically. It's the Game 6 Sacramento Kings Los Angeles Lakers and he says it's. He said and I actually talked about it in that video, but he said it's the worst officiated game in NBA history, which it actually, it actually is. 

01:34:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's pretty bad. Did we ever find out who delivered Michael Jordan the bad pizza? 

01:34:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh, that was one of the ones I did too. 

01:34:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Did we ever find that out? That series? I'm telling you, we were doing videos for BetStamp at the time and we were still in our initial stage of producing content and we were we're still in our like initial stage of producing content and we were doing some stuff and we get like a few views here and there on a daily basis. I'm like zach, let's fire up some conspiracy videos he's. He's like he's have nothing to do with sports betting. I'm like they do now. Let's go. These things were popping off man. They still. I still get them recommended on youtube every now and then I see like a youtube short of of zach. That's the stuff that people want to see. 

01:34:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like, and the score of the game was 9 11. Yeah exactly. 

01:34:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh man, there were so many there's. There's actually so many that, like it's, it's amazing. I do want to answer a few of these personal questions, yeah, yeah. 

01:35:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we have a bunch more. Okay, you want me to read them to you? Sure, want to rapid fire these. Sure, we'll start with the personal ones. So why will Rob Pizzola finally give the Giants some credit when they are the Buffalo Bills in two years? 

01:35:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not a hater of teams, by the way. I I'm a realist. The Giants fans are delusional this year. They think that they're going to be winning the Super Bowl or something. The Giants stink. I'm sorry they got a good coach. Aside from that, it ain't happening. If they are the Buffalo Bills in two years and they're one of the best teams in the league, sure, dan Dimes, I'll give them credit, hypothetically speaking, if someone bracket Joey Knish canish were to steal rob's tortoise tortellini, how much would rob pay for a ransom? So true answer I am an animal lover. He gave, he gave tortellini away. The true answer is zero dollars because tortellini, as much as I do love him and I love feeding him, it's like it's soon what would you pay to have nish kidnap him? 

01:35:59
I wouldn't pay anything, anything Like he's, I'm indifferent, but like Rob's wife has tried to pawn him off. 

01:36:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
She's like why don't we? Why? 

01:36:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
don't we put Tortellini in the bet stamp office or whatever? I'm like these guys. They can't even take care of themselves. You think they're going to be able to take care of a, of a live tortoise? No, no chance. But it's tough, man. You go away for vacation Like I go away to Mexico for a week. My next door neighbor's got to come over to feed him every day. His diet is very particular. He gets fruit on some days, little bit of protein on another. It's work to care for a tortoise. I like the guy. We'll do more content with him down the road. But Towards. 

01:36:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, why do you hate Turkey and America? 

01:36:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't hate America. I also don't hate Turkey, but turkey is the most overrated. Like Thanksgiving, like of the birds, come on. Like people are like it's like I'm insulting them personally when I say Thanksgiving ham is way better than turkey. Like it's not even close Turkey. Everyone's like oh, you haven't had a good turkey. You don't know how to cook your turkey pop properly. You have to get a spatchcock turkey and this and that. I've eaten like a million turkeys. Okay, they like at best when it's like super flavorful, it's like a six and a half out of ten. You have to dump some gravy on it to make it like you know better turkey, is it? Chicken is better than turkey. Yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't disagree. Like what? I don't know what the infatuation is with turkey. And everyone is always like oh, you haven't tried my turkey. 

01:37:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Have you tried this? 

01:37:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
deep fried turkey and this and whatever it's like they all are just average. 

01:37:33 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I was going to adamantly disagree with Rob, but then you said the gravy on it. I think that's what it is. It's like you get the gravy on the turkey. 

01:37:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like that's what it is. It's like you get the gravy on the turkey, like that's what the Like the next day on Thanksgiving, or like the next two days where you're eating leftovers. I don't want like the leftover, I want the leftover. Everything else, oh, I do. Give me the mashed potatoes, give me like the stuffing and whatever, but like turkey I'm just like, oh, turkey sandwich. 

01:37:58 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why beat risotto? 

01:38:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The teasing through zero of risotto recipe. 

01:38:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This actually drives me nuts, okay. So I made a beet risotto Red beet risotto Years ago. I posted some videos and pictures to Twitter. I don't expect my Twitter followers, at least some of them, to have the. Actually, let me retract this statement. I don't want to lump everybody into it. That beet risotto is amazing. It's really good. It's a really good recipe. If you cannot enjoy a beet risotto in life, I actually just feel bad for you, and I feel bad that you don't have the taste buds to enjoy something of that magnitude. It's fantastic, like, why beat risotto? It's? It's a recipe that I I tried once as like an experiment. It turned out amazing. We make it probably a couple of times a year me and Diana and it's a. It's just like. It's amazing. I could see why when people would mock it. It's like, oh, it's beets and it's like it's rice, like whatever. Very, very flavorful Risotto. 

01:39:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Delicious Beet risotto probably is the teasing through zero of risottos. I will give whoever asked this that I'd say it's not hard to beat. 

01:39:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Cut that out. No, no, no, keep it in. Do not cut, no, no, keep it in. Do not cut, zach, do not cut that out. 

01:39:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm joking, I'm joking, no, but it's very easy to beat a red beet risotto. 

01:39:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, sure, of course you can have like a seafood risotto, yeah, seafood risotto Salmon risotto. Regular mushroom risotto. 

01:39:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Regular mushroom risotto Rice with cheese and beans no okay, that won't be it. 

01:39:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
guys are emphasizing the word. You know what? 

01:39:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to. I don't want to volunteer to do this. I'm not going to commit to doing this, but one day I'm going to cook this beet risotto for the office. I'll dust you risotto for risotto. I'm not. This is not. This is not going to turn into a risotto competition. Okay, I'm not chef bobby flay here or whatever. 

01:39:59 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tomato and Parmesan risotto. I'm looking up top risottos. 

01:40:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You might have that one beat Tomato and Parmesan. That's on the top risottos, I'm saying you might have that one beat. That's the absolute nut. Low, that's rice and sauce. 

01:40:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, shrimp and mascarpone, done deal. 

01:40:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sounds fantastic. I like an assortment of seafood in my reason amarone and radicchio. 

01:40:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know about that, man, these are getting out of whack already. You might have the fourth best risotto listen after mushroom, essentially paella seafood risotto and a regular sandwich. 

01:40:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will not listen. I'm not going to say that this is a 10 out of 10, because you can always improve. There's always things you can improve but it is a fantastic dish. It is really, really good. And like if you put the risotto needs care, you know you got to cook it slowly, you got to, you got to. You can't be an asshole and, just like you know, mix it in all in at once. It's got to be nice and slow. 

01:41:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The it in all in at once. It's got to be nice and slow. The stirring is very important by the time you're done cooking a risotto if your arm is not sore. You didn't do it. You don't want to stir it too much, though. According to epicuriouscom, the beet risotto red beet risotto is rated the 11th best out of 27 risottos so what are we in? Terms of percent. Slow state ahead. Slowly, like barely ahead of the toasted barley and spinach herb puree risotto bro that's, that's 60. 

01:41:29
Okay, 60th percent site lost all credibility when the 13th best was the salted caramel risotto. That's a, that's the dessert what is that? 

01:41:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know it doesn't look good, this is all right. This, you would next question. If you actually cook that in Italy, though, they would actually deport you. You're done Salted caramel. You would either be executed or deported At least one of the two, maybe both. 

01:41:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How hard is it to be a Leafs fan? And do you ever bet them with your heart as opposed to your analysis? As a diehard bruins fan, I'm asking for episode 78, aka ray bork, plus one number um, how hard is it to be a leafs fan? 

01:42:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's super hard. This is the leafs I. This is not sports betting related. We actually have the worst fan base in the entire world in any sport. Everyone is so negative about every the leafs right, that's not negative. At the time of this recording, zach has his least digest youtube channel. I don't know how he does it. I'd have a live. If you want live, there's one more. The Leafs right now. Zach's not negative. At the time of this recording, zach has his Leafs Digest YouTube channel. I don't know how he does it. 

01:42:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'd have a live stroke on it If you want live. There's one more question. If you want live reactions to every Leaf game, where do you go? You go over to YouTube. You search Leafs Digest. We got the Hammer Betting Network's own Zach Phillips behind the camera. Live reaction, super chat him for $2. He'll do whatever you want. 

01:42:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I sat with yeah, maybe don't say that I sat with Zach for lunch today and he's like we're not drawing a lot of views lately or whatever. I'm like what's going on? Leafs are on like a, like they've lost one regulation game in their last 10 games. He's like, yeah, people don't want to join unless the Leafs are losing. It gets tons of viewership when the Leafs lose and not so much when the Leafs win. 

01:43:03
And that is literally the Toronto Maple Leafs fan base. They've lost one of their last 10 games and everything around the team is negative. We need another depth four. We need more out of Austin Matthews. We need this. Our decor is not good enough. Like it is the worst fan base, and I get it. They have not won a stanley cup since 1967. They can't win a playoff series. So you get to a point where you get defeated. But my god, how many organization, how many fan bases in the league, would trade their entire organization for the leafs entire organization? Right now, it's at least three quarters of the fan bases in the league that would do that. Like it's the worst fan base. So how hard is it being a Leafs fan? It's the worst. 

01:43:46 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I hate it, and it's more because of the fans. 

01:43:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm embarrassed by other Leafs fans. I literally am embarrassed by other Toronto Leafs fans. Do I bet with my heart on the Leafs All the time? Bet them last night. No edge, it happens, but I bet them last night. 

01:44:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No edge, it happens, but I I know what I'm doing, though I know I'm doing this recreationally. One of these days have marner hat trick's gonna cash, I don't know when, but it's gonna cash. 

01:44:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I gotta shout out my dad. My dad texted me last night half an hour before the leafs game marner plus oh man, I'm trying plus 12 500 hat trick. I bet it. 

01:44:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what my dad says, senor phillips hey, nice, I'm like, I'm not even gonna say no, paul phillips, shout out, paul phillips, paul phillips, um. But yeah, it's painful, um, and then yeah, like you know, the playoff losing sucks on top of it especially with the amount of money I spend for tickets three more quick ones, if you're still around, we appreciate you. 

01:44:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Go sign up at Pinnacle, if you haven't already, and also sign up at Bedstamp. Track your CLV. There you go, maybe a little connection. Sign up at Pinnacle, use it to bet, use it to compare odds for live betting, but also use Bedstamp for your regular. Your friends follow other cappers, if you are still listening to this episode. 

01:45:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You've obviously enjoyed it. Smash the like button, hit subscribe. Absolutely obliterate that like button. Honestly, you should have to buy a new mouse because you hit the like button so hard that you smash your mouse, and if you're just listening in podcast form, we do appreciate it as well. Rate and review five stars. It does not go unnoticed and we really appreciate it. 

01:45:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What was Okay. You know what, rob? You can fire one person into the sun today. Who is it? I? 

01:45:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
can't answer this question on air. I literally can't. Who is it? I don't know. I can't answer this truthfully in front I I'm a very authentic, real person. Say it and we'll bleep it out and cover your mouth. No, I can't. I will not. There's very little that I will refuse to do on this show but at least we can get a good laugh. 

01:45:52
I don't want to give a bs answer to this. But specifically, I've been triggered by something today and I don't I, you know, I don't, I just don't want to say it't. I, you know, I don't, I just don't want to say it. All right, fair enough. 

01:46:05
You know, listen, I don't do this often. It's very rare we can do a Q and a and I'm going to say I don't want to answer a question, but I don't want to also just make up some random person like, oh, I'll fire this guy into the sun, like that's that who I am. 

01:46:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, you guys talked a lot about bad beats on the last episode. What are your best wins? I'll answer that quick. Nobody remembers the best wins. I don't even have a single memory that I could think of, but I can remember 25 bad beats. It's terrible. That's a psychology. It is what it is. Rob, you got any good beats, good wins? 

01:46:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do. Also, if you're on YouTube, we saw all the comments last episode of the bad beats that people had looked some of those up. My god, the pain that I want to hear about your best wins as well. We might as well do the positive with the negative. If you have your best wins, drop them in the comments. When I was a degenerate gambler when I was younger can't remember the year I was young I was down, bad, down bad. 

01:47:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I emptied the account on the Lakers against the Spurs when someone says they emptied the account and they were down bad. You know exactly what I meant, dunk. I always said sports books should have a sorry to interrupt, they should have. Any sports bag doesn't have a max bet button is terrible. But there should also be three buttons. There should be minimum like. There should be like a like your standard unit. So let's say you set your unit to 100. There should just be a button that says like standard, so like hundred dollar bet. There should be a max bet. And then there should be another third bet dunk, if you want to dunk the whole balance. 

01:47:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, I mean I was already down bad. I'm betting on credit, by the way, at this time, which, like I cannot pay what I'm about to lose here and I already owe money and I'm still I'm dodging the guy that I need to pay, but still betting into the account hoping that I can win my money back. And I'm down bad. So I emptied the credit on the account on the Los Angeles Lakers against the San Antonio Spurs. It was a playoff game. I believe it was game five, believe it was Tim Duncan. It's a shot with 0.4 seconds left for the Spurs to take the lead. 

01:48:13
I remember sitting kneeling on my floor with my hands on my head of just like you know, like you're in that moment of like'm such an idiot, like what. What did I do? Lakers inbounded to derrick fisher chucks up a three that goes down. I will never forget that for the rest of my life. It got me out of that hole. I eventually built another hole again down the road, built many of those, but it got me out of that one. In specific, derek Fisher on the inbounds pass don't even know that he actually got the shot off within 0.4 seconds. I'm pretty sure he really didn't, but it counted. The Lakers won the game. I went from being down bad to break even and man which usually feels better than going from break even to up. 

01:49:03
But honestly you're right, because best wins I really can't think of like another one right now, like the wins that are ingrained in my memory are not like big wins or ones where I was like a long shot the Fisher one was, but like my favorite wins ever. I'll tell this story. I don't care. There was there, was it used to be, a local Superbowl party. Okay, it was put on by, like the locals that ran the accounts in the Toronto area. Big Superbowl party every single year, full banquet hall, three course meal like the works. Okay, goes to show you how much they're making on a yearly basis that they can put. Throw in this Superbowl party every single year. 

01:49:53
My table of 10 guys and every other table in this entire building, by the way is going to bet the coin toss, no matter what. And it was my, my best friend, steve, that we always made pick whether it was going to be heads or tails, and he was going to place the bet on our behalf and honestly, it's not a big bet in hindsight. It was like we would put down like 2000 bucks as a table, but when you're earlier in your early twenties, you're betting a couple hundred bucks on something, plus all your other super bowl bets it adds up and my buddy steve would always come in and he'd have some sort of logic as to and he's convincing everyone. It's like this year it's going to be heads this and that I've watched all the coin tosses. I looked up the coin tosses at this stadium. These teams like some sort of thing to convince himself and this guy won every single year for us Five Super Bowl parties. 

01:50:44
He won the coin toss all five times and those you'll never get like a rush like that of just everybody in a room. We're talking three, 400 people in one of the rooms there on a big projection watching the coin toss, everybody cheering for different things. Boom, you win that coin toss. Get the Super Bowl started. Right. Those are the. That to me, is a better win because I could celebrate it with all my friends. Like, I'll always remember that because you're celebrating that with all your friends, versus something that you just like win big on. You know what I'm saying. It's like the sense of community, right. So that for me those are my best wins. Super Bowl coin tosses five years. By the way, the first year I didn't attend that Super Bowl party because I had a conflict. I had to go somewhere else. That party got raided, shut down by the police. You could say I'm an extremely lucky person. Crazy Illegal underground party. 

01:51:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll give my actual answer. My best win ever, which is the luckiest win I ever had and probably will ever get, is I had a really big position on Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards under in the Super Bowl, the one that Kansas City won over San Fran. 2020 Super Bowl. 

01:52:00
The lowest number I had was under 29.5 half, so I had under like 34 and a half, 33, 32, 31, everything and I jammed it. I was really really hard and, um, he went over big time during the game and then they got the ball back. They were up 11 points and they were just trying to run out the clock and mahomes did three kneel downs in a row. But since he had to actually wait a little bit, he didn't have quite enough to just do a standard one yard kneel down. So he was taking the ball backing up like a little bit, a little bit, a little bit and then kneeling down and he ended up losing. I don't want to butcher. I think it was like he lost like four yards, then three yards, then five yards and landed on the nose 29, which won me all my. 

01:52:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think one of them honestly was like seven or eight yards. I think one of them was like an egregious kneel because I was on the same thing. I'm gonna say 2020 super bowl, uh playlist, yeah, play by play or whatever play, you'll find it, but I I feel like one of them was like seven or eight yards. 

01:53:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don don't know why it was the last place of the game, so I should be able to find it real quick. Okay, full play-by-play. Got it right here. Oh man, that was something special. Okay, so first play. Oh my God, this was the best win I ever had in my life. Keep in mind, I needed under 29 and a half first and 10 at the kc 41, and this was off an interception, by the way, I remember I remember I was in london. 

01:53:31
This was jimmy g, threw it deep to deep, like to debo, and it got picked off. And then first and 10 at the kc, 41 Mahomes kneels for minus five yards. Already a trap like a debacle. 

01:53:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
How does he lose? 

01:53:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
five. First time out by San Fran, 53 seconds left. Second and 15. Patrick Mahomes kneels at the KC 33, minus three yards. I was thinking initially like if he kneels minus five, there I got a shot. Yep, it's dead. Third and 18. Patrick Mahomes kneels at the KC 26 minus seven yards. Cash them all, line them up, knock them down. 

01:54:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I believe he needed to take like just a few more seconds off the clock in order to like officially run it out and he didn't. 

01:54:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There was five seconds left. Yes, and then it's patrick mahomes shotgun. He ran back through it. 

01:54:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The whole field, sayonara super bowl, over right because I remember thinking in my head I had the same bet as you and after the first kneel I'm like, hey, well, like this guy should just take some more time off the clock, like what are they doing here? And then you just saved it for you know, I definitely. 

01:54:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I didn't celebrate, by the way, because you don't actually know what the stat is coming in that you can't celebrate. I'm like no, I'm too close, I gotta wait to sell. And then I see it's minus seven. I'm like not yet, can't celebrate yet you gotta wait it out. 

01:54:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was already up a shit ton of money off of that national anthem that year, so you were already good, so I was already good, no matter what, that was just like gravy Incredible. 

01:55:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
God, that national anthem. Somebody Someone said the last question. This is the last one I'm about to ask what was one of your biggest edges that no longer exists? 

01:55:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That was the biggest. The second biggest was I believe I've discussed this before, but NBA first to score props. For a long time the NBA literally first team to score prop was priced as a derivative of the full game. So if, like, the golden state warriors were 15 point favorites over the detroit pistons, the golden state warriors are like minus 200 to score first. And guess what? The pistons had andre drummond as their center, who wins-tenths of the jump balls. 

01:55:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And he misses nine-tenths of his free throws. 

01:55:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, just kidding, but you knew with a very high degree of certainty in a lot of these games who was going to win the opening tip, and it was priced based off of the game odds. That edge did not last as long time. A lot of people were privy to it and became privy to it, but uh, that was the big one that I wish I had capitalized, uh a little bit more on nice um. 

01:56:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
For me it ties before, like I was. Uh, I hit a lot of cash on um nhl exact sixes when they started pulling the goalies earlier, and then it was a lot of four or two games with the empty netters. That was one Doesn't exist anymore, although they're starting to pull the goalies even more early now. So something might pop up on the sevens now, I think, but it's tough to find and I don't think there's anything specific there. So yeah, that's just one of them. I'd say that's probably it, that no longer exists. 

01:56:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what I love about the Q&A episodes they don't have to really do any work to prep. It's the best. 

01:56:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, I mean, I read them all before, just to make sure. So do I. 

01:56:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to go in like knowing I don't want to be an asshole on air and just be like oh, I came totally unprepared for this. That's not what I want to do, but it's you know it.