00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. Johnny poses an interesting hypothetical question, but we're going to solve a Twitter beef this week between Jeff Benson and JJ Gruden. It's time to play Feud. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 79 here on the hammer betting network presented by pinnacle sportsbook. Number 79 I'm empty. I got a few current nfler all pro left tackle ronnie stanley, ron stanley. There's one baseball player that were 79 jose abreu oh, jose abreu, it's a big one. 

00:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Wait, wasn't he 19? He's 79. 

00:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Or 39. 

00:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He must have been previously 19. All right, go ahead. I have a jersey tee of Jose Abreu from when I went to Chicago years ago, Toronto Maple Leafs. 

00:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
we're both Toronto Maple Leafs fans, have been for a long time. One guy that I absolutely hated on the Montreal Canadiens For years. His name was Andre. 

01:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Markov. 

01:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Andre Markov, or a 79. Andre Markov, that's right. And also One of the biggest NHL draft busts of all time. Patrick Steffen no, that's a big one. Alexander Degg, another one. Keep going, the third. I guess it would have been early 2000s, you know? No, no, no, never mind, alexi. 

01:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yashin. Yeah, he wasn't a bust. 

01:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean no way. Alexi Yashin was a bust Relative to where he was picked His first overall. He wasn't a bust Like there's work. 

01:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay. 

01:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Then Eric Johnson is a disaster enough. Yashin also got traded. For what the picks that ended up being Jason Spezza and Zidane? O'chara yeah that was the big deal he actually got the Islanders to, or he got the Senators a really good return. 

01:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yes he did. Let's say Yashin, I don't think he can be a buster. No, he played so many games. 

02:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
At where? Well, 850 games played 781 points. 

02:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, he's not 12 years. We're gonna ask for a lot in the comments this week a lot. 

02:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No. Number one we're asking is alexi yash. If you're a hockey fan, do you consider alexi yashin to be a bust? 

02:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
there's only three first overall busts and big, big one yakupov yakupov and patrick stefan. 

02:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He was the. He ended up being the captain of the New York Islanders. 

02:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, he was honestly good. I'm pretty sure Yashin was good. 

02:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For a very brief. Okay, fair enough. 

02:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll say Yashin, I'm outnumbered in the studio. 

02:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
so I'll heed to you guys on this one, I think that Okay, I think he's not a bust, he's just Alexi Lafreniere. 

02:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but then what are you going to say? Rick DiPietro's a bust. 

02:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would say Lafreniere's a bust, I would say DiPietro's a bust. Okay, maybe my definition of a bust is Okay. If he's a bust, then what's Alexander Dago? Dipietro's a buff. What's Dago then? 

03:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Dago's a bust. 

03:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yakupov never even had a brief, maybe when he scored that shootout winner and went on his knees and fucking went all the way up the ice. 

03:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah that would be flashing the pen, oh god alright, let's get into the episode. 

03:14
Pinnacle is our official sponsor here on Circles In Ontario to Ontario bettors. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades Pinnacle is the sharpest sports book. It's where the best bettors play as well. You must be 19 plus in Ontario. Please play responsibly. And again, not available in the US. We do have a very interesting episode coming up today. It's going to be a big bomb banger of an episode. I hope so. I hope it is. But before we get into our guest today, I've seen you walking around the office today and I like when you do this. 

03:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You want me to ask my question on it? 

03:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, you've been putting people on the spot. 

03:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like, what would you do? Occasionally I'll see these things and I'll just ask everyone questions and see the responses the equivalent of like the billion dollar flip and stuff just to see what people feel. So the question I'll ask it to Rob here and we can get Zach to and the listeners. It's for you as well. You get a million dollars if you complete one of these four things. 

04:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So you got to do one of these four things right now, and you got to complete it. 

04:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't see this. 

04:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But it's just like cold you can't, you don't practice whatever. 

04:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so you get to pick like right now. Right, you gotta do it right now second got it okay. 

04:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hit a free throw, nba size, rim, official basketball, whatever in a court okay, and in a gym, sorry, okay. So when I say you know, practice like you don't say you don't. It's not like okay, I get 10 free throws and I have to hit it like you get one right now. Walk up in the clothes you're wearing and you just have to hit it First, try, okay. So if you do that, you win a million dollars Okay. Or you could choose one of these next three things Kick a 25 yard field goal, or yeah. Or sink a six foot putt Okay. Or score a penalty kick on a professional goalie in soccer Regulation, net regulation, ball field Okay. 

05:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I love the questions like this. Okay, so I'll estimate my percentages. Free throw somewhere between 50 and 60%. I play basketball every week. I'm not the greatest free throw shooter. That's cap. He's not 60%. 

05:22
Yeah, I'm like roughly that, all right. Yeah, not the greatest free throw shooter, he's not 60. Yeah, I'm like roughly that, all right. Yeah, I give him that. Yeah, okay, 50 to 60. I'm not doing that one. I think there's other ones that are higher. Okay, professional um goalie, so like the xg in soccer on a penalty kick, is like 0.78 isn't 0.8, 0.8, something like that okay, let's say 0.7 so it's, I'm definitely less than that, yeah, and substantially less than that, um, I would say probably.7. 

05:45
So it's, I'm definitely less than that, yeah, and substantially less than that. Um, I would say probably in the same range as a free throw, maybe 60%, I give you less. 

05:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I give myself less than that To score on a regulation size net. Yeah, it's like the. The penalty kicks are the ones that everyone's like that's so easy to score a penalty kick are very hard and the goalies are not going to just be died. The goalie's not gonna be diving one way like it's you, you're dust, not that, not that you're bad at. So I'm not trying to say like rob's a bad athlete. This is for myself as well as for everyone. Like it's harder than it appears to score a penalty kick this is. 

06:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is gonna sound like really lame, okay, but like I I've taken pen, I play like indoor soccer. I've, I'm a fine soccer player, I'm a good shooter, so I'm gonna like, just that's probably like I will score. I take penalties in indoor soccer where the nets are like the size of the tv that's behind us they're freaking small like the goalie could stand in the middle of the net and just like make a say and and I will score like I I'm over 50. 

06:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's also a goalie. Who's playing men's league? 

06:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
yeah, but do you think, like the goalie has so much ground to cover in a in a big size net and I like if I pick a spot I'm not going to shoot it with the power of a professional and the precision or whatever, but I can pick a spot on net and I can put it there Very confident he's going to bait you. 

07:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Left side Diver it's basically I'm 50%. 

07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm telling you At least Because I'm not missing the net. I'm missing the net maybe one time out of 10. 

07:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It goes from not missing the net to 10% missed net. 

07:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But I'm going to pick one of the two corners and then it's just a guess and it's not a guarantee he's going to save it. Fair enough. So those are on par. 

07:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's say there was no goalie but you had to put the ball and score no goalie, but you had only like one eighth of the net on the left side you scoring. That. It's tough. That's what I'm saying. 

07:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, either way, I'm not picking this I don't want to go down this path any further. I'm not picking that one. It's always going to be between the putt and the field goal. Now listen, I hate to be that guy who wants to get like all the stipulations or whatever, but if it's like a 25 yard field goal off a tee, I'm taking that. 

07:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm telling you I will hit that upwards of 90, okay what if it's a official like line, right right, like you're the kicker for, like the Steelers, you're playing against the Ravens and you have to kick it but it's a perfect hold, snap every time. 

08:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So it's completely different now, cause I have to do this right now. I have to go and kick it right now. On my first kick I know I can kick it through those uprights. I know that I can't. I don't know that I can kick it on the trajectory to get it over like someone who's coming to block. So that completely changes everything for me, because if it's just some guy holding the ball for me and I got to put it between those uprights, it's going through. We should test that right now. We, we, uh, listen, man, I, I went to university at the university of Toronto Mississauga campus. 

08:42
It's where the Toronto Argonauts used to practice of the CFL. I used to go out for practice all the time. They had the best kicker at the time. His name was Noel Prefontaine. He used to be the kicker for it and the guy just like he would let me kick with him and practice. He'd let me punt Like I was kicking field goals. For a while. Now I haven't done this, but I'm very confident in my ability to kick a short field goal Like very confident, fair enough the putt, though. I'm also very confident in a six foot straight putt, like if I am lining up the ball directly to the middle of the cup and it's a straight putt. I'm going to hit that often 80% Like direct, straight. 

09:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is the key to this question. If it's like any sort of curvature on the course, no, no, I don't want to do anything to do with that, then you don't. You don't want that I don't want if it's a perfectly straight putt. I do feel also that that would be the easiest one if it's direct, flat ground I also think, though, that it's the most affected by nerves. 

09:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's the difference, right like I think. If I didn't know this was for a million dollars, I would. I would take my percentage on the straight putt. Now you add in the nerves, because in golf, like, if you're lining up that putt like that and you're even a little bit off on your putting stroke, you're fucked. Yank it. Yeah, like the yips are real in golf. 

09:59 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Like this happens to pros right. The top two for me are the field goal first, first, and then the soccer penalty kick second, which is a weird thing for me, because basketball and golf are the things that I actually like do, but I think it's because I have more not more, understanding of my own capabilities. With it, the putt is last, the putt is dead last for me, and it's not that I think I'm like a bad golfer. It's just like, as rob said, there's so many like little tiny things with the putt that I think I'm like a bad golfer. It's just like, as rob said, there's so many like little tiny things with the putt that I think could go wrong for me that it's like all right, I'm just eliminating that. The free throw no it's the free throw. 

10:36
I would never do chance yeah, um, and then I would go the field goal number one, as that's the one I would do, even with the line. 

10:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The line changes With the guy trying to block that field goal Up the top. 

10:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know man. 

10:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Climbing the ladder to get up there. You know what? 

10:57 - Zack Phillips (Other)
My sister is a Division I soccer goalie. I'm just going to go and see what happens. I'm going to take 100 shots and then just report back and be like all right, Division I soccer goalie, here's my percentage. And then I'll be like all right, scale it down to a pro. The advantage that you have with the soccer penalty kick is that they're guessing, the goalie is guessing. That's what they do, they guess. 

11:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They have to guess. And then you also have the advantage of, like you only get one shot, I know, but you can tactically play it. 

11:32
Would you ever have the balls to rip that one right down the pipe? Yeah, I would you think that goal. Because I think a pro goalie is more likely against an amateur to stand in the middle and pick and try to react. Yeah, against another pro, they have to pick a side right, or else. Or else if they stand and react they're not going to save it. But against an amateur, like if I'm a pro, I'm just standing in the middle, I'm waiting for them to shoot and then I'm going to dive, yeah, so I I don't think you like, I don't think you go down the middle in this one. 

12:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I think my leg is good enough and I think I'm accurate enough. 

12:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is so, but you get so many different. What did you? 

12:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
pick, I personally think that my chances of all of them are exactly the same. And I think that they're all around 40%, 40%. Yeah, because it's the first throw. You're overrating all of the stuff that you're doing. In my opinion, you're overrating yourself. On the free throw, the first shot I take, you're cold, you're just going. Let's go outside. We have a net here. Go outside, take your first shot. This is different, though the net's different. 

12:49
Okay, but what I'm saying is like, the first shot is not. I'm not saying if you take 10 warm-up free throws and then I'm not saying you won't go five of ten or six of ten, I'm saying the first shot, first one, I'm booking you on that it's. I'm giving you 40 or less, and and the penalty kick, I think, is the only one where it's a lot of variance. Everyone seems to think that it's really easy to score a penalty kick, but like it's versus pro goalie, no, I, I get that. Oh, that guy's gonna stone you you, you have to. 

13:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're gonna have to hit the ball with yeah. 

13:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you don't hit the ball with case and pick a target, if you just place it, no, no, he will just react and say agreed and you probably honestly have to, you probably honestly have to just go up and drill it and then, if you do that, there's a higher likelihood. You just missed the net. 

13:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So in my head, if I'm taking the penalty kick, I already know where I'm shooting. 

13:27 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm not going to look at the goalie or anything. 

13:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, and I can. I know my. Where are you shooting Down the pipe? No, I'm shooting to the right side. Now, any professional? Yeah, because here's the thing with when you shoot to the left. This is like physics footed, the ball is going to curve kind of outwards. The goalie doesn't have to actually dive as far to be able to cut the angle. You can technically, if you shoot to the right side I'm not saying I would start it outside the post, because I wouldn't you could start outside the post, curve it in yes and the goalie has a harder time to cut the angle. 

14:00 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I'm going up and just blasting the ball as hard as I possibly can to the spot're going to miss the net. 

14:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're going to miss the net. Two of ten, roberto. 

14:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Baggio no. And then plus on top of that, the golf putt. It's too variable. The golf putt at any curvature I can't take. Six-foot putt is not a gimme. Yes, it's not at all a gimme? 

14:22 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Not at all. It's definitely not a gimme. No, outside of like one foot. I tell you people they're like put that in, by the way. 

14:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And the field goal? Same kind of deal. Like I don't think your first try on the field goal, you're popping that in. 

14:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not settling for this bullshit answer you've gave. By the way, you got to pick a damn, not are the same like pick something, let's go, okay, give me honestly give me, give me the free throw. 

14:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, give me the free throw. I think you're nuts man the field goal is way too much. 

14:52
Very you're athletic too, you're gonna take the free throw and also, I would even go as far as to wager that if we did a 10 on each of these, I'll take myself. Plus 100 versus you. Plus 100? Yeah, like even odds Me versus you. You take the free throw and I take the field goal. No, no, no, I'm saying we do all four of these events, yeah, and we do 10 shots of each. Yeah, so there's less variance. Yeah, 10 shots of each, and then we just sum the total number out of 40. Yeah, but how about we do one shot of each? 

15:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
well then, that's the bet we could do that there's likely to tie. Then if it's 10 shots of each, I would take you. 

15:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, one shot of each I would take, all right fine, let's do one shot of each, one shot of me we'll bet, we'll bet even odds, and then we just get like the. The way the bet works is like if I hit two and you hit one, yeah, I went two. Two tiebreaker yeah, doesn't matter what you get, like which ones you hit, yep, we're gonna see if we can get John Luigi Buffon to fly over. We're gonna have to play on it. I picked the soccer penalty kick. 

15:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's what I'm picking, see that's the thing. 

15:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We can replicate all of these except and we can do obviously, the field goal with no line. But we can't, we can't do a Division I goalie yeah. That's fine, I would still obviously say that's way worse. 

16:10 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And part of it is like no, no, no, I think I might be able to find us pro goalie, pro goalie, yeah. 

16:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. If we can do that, but it'd be the same as me saying like, hey, I could score a penalty shot on like a college like in hockey, on like a college hockey goalie. But then it's like okay, against like Vasilevsky, it's going to be significantly lower. 

16:32 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, yeah yeah. 

16:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right. 

16:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even though they're both there. 

16:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, In the comments I want to. I'm very surprised that anyone would take the free throw. This is my personal. 

16:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The majority of people I asked said the free throw Wow. 

16:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
People think they're like Steve Nash, hitting like 93% from the line the only person I would have like confidence in taking that shot at the free throw is Goody. It's Josh in the office, in our office. Yeah, he's the only one in the office. 

17:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, to be fair, if you don't golf one in the okay, to be fair, if you don't golf, if you don't golf, you just can never pick that oakum. Yes, like if you never golfed before. Oh yeah, that's. That's just enough. And also, if you're, if you don't have a powerful kick, then you're not even going to make the field the field goal. 

17:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I've got an absolute boot. You've got a boot. But yeah, I used to play soccer. I was on allister johnson's team minor soccer. Don't worry about that, do you know? 

17:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
what is that? What is that? You were actually on Alistair Johnson's team. Yeah, I swear to God. Oh, my God, man, he's picked up steam. He just signed with like a European team or something Celtic, fc, celtic. Wow, because the guy's a Canadian national team, you know? Former player, by the way okay, like the. Nba league average free throw percentage is 77.8. 

17:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's what I'm saying. That's the NBA league average. 

17:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what I'm saying to you these are professional players. How are you? 60% on your first free throw then I said between 50 and 60. But how would anyone choose this as their first option is? 

17:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what I'm saying. What I'm saying is okay, now go. So you just time out, time out. You just said so. Nba average is 77. 

17:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, pro soccer soccer average 0.78 or to 80 around the same. 

18:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, okay, field goal. Yeah, pro 25 yards, probably 85, 90 way higher it's got to be. 

18:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's got to be less. What's the extra point? 

18:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
uh, now 37, okay, so yeah, back in the day the extra point was 19, so it's, and that was like 98 the field goal is the highest for pros and then the six foot putt is probably under when it's different because the pros are like curvature and stuff. But it's definitely under 80 for a six foot putt in the six foot putt make percentage. 

18:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I love questions like this. 

18:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's got to be under, it's for sure under. Have you guys seen the chart? 

18:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
it's really, I'm not saying it's apples to apples, because a lot of those courses are very hard, but and if it was a straight putt it'd be over. But I do think it's. Wow, this is okay, let me guess, let me guess yeah, six foot putt yeah, make average. Yeah, and pga yeah, 56, 66, there you go wow, but now granted those are not straight. Yeah, they're not straight putts. 

18:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's what I'm saying I'm taking the field goal, boys, I'm taking the field goal. I'm taking, I'm taking my three steps back, my two steps to the left. 

19:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm focusing on the bottom of that? Are you faking the glue with? 

19:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
a stutter step. I'm just still I'm not even looking at the d-line rushing. That ball gets put down, boom it's going. It's going through the uprights, that's it. Okay, the moment we've all been waiting for here. This has been brewing for some time. Just to give the listeners and viewers some background, we're going to welcome in a couple guests here. This is a first on Circles Off, two guests at once Seen a lot of back and forth on Twitter. Twitter is obviously not the best forum sometimes for people to explain their points of view, so we're going to bring them in on Circles Off. First. We welcome in Jeff Benson. You can follow him on Twitter. Twitter at JeffreyBenson12. He is the Sportsbook Operations Manager at Circa Sports Las Vegas. Jeff, how's it going? 

19:52 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Good Thanks for having me on today, you guys. 

19:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No problem. And secondly, we're welcoming in JJ Gruden at TakingThePoint5 on Twitter. Takingthepoints on TikTok. He's a sports bet, better, he's a content creator. Jj, how's it going? How's it? 

20:08 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
going. How's it going? Just like you guys, I'm still waiting for my first time, with two other people too. You know what I mean. So there we go. I like that. 

20:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I like that he's in, and he's in with a bang. Jj, gruden, everybody All right, we're here. 

20:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're here. This is not going to be like a Jerry Springer episode. Maybe it will be by the end, I have no idea. This is it's a little bit too early for Festivus. Festivus is December 23rd, so we're not going to do like the airing of grievances or anything like that. 

20:36
But you guys tend to not see eye to eye on a number of topics, and we want to get you to break them down and go back and forth, have a civilized debate. Myself and Johnny will jump in wherever we see fit, but I do want to start with something that has been at the forefront in the Twitter conversations that have happened recently, which is about whether or not content creators have a moral responsibility when they grow a large following. And I know, jj, a lot of times you say I'm just like producing recreational content, and Jeff will say, no, like there is a moral responsibility here. I'd like to get both sides of that, and then myself and Johnny can weigh in on this as well. But let's start with you, jj. The type of content you produce, who's it geared towards? What are you trying to gain? What is the end goal out of that content? 

21:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
jj, before you answer that, give a background on yourself here, because, um, I know you've been around football your whole life and stuff like that. So if you want to just give a brief background and then and then get into the question yeah. 

21:34 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
So I mean, I grew up around football, like I said, my whole life. Uh, uncle, father, both coach in the nfl um grew up around the arena football league quite a bit, um, so I have a very familiarity, uh, uh, with nfl college football the whole night. Worked with espn a couple years, um, but so on and so forth. Uh, you know, one day I think it was like right before covid uh, tiktok was starting to become a thing uh, saw this old guy looked like the, the definition of a basically a degenerate man. He had like the uh, you know, the ruffled face, looks like he hadn't shaved in weeks. Um, guy in the definition of basically a degenerate man. He had like the you know, the ruffled face, looks like he hadn't shaved in weeks. Guy in the back corner of a sports book who would probably have like a program in his hand giving out content, advice on what to bet and who to bet on TikTok. I'm like man, if this guy can do it, I can do it. So I got on there one day, decided to go ahead and just keep track of my record, give out my plays, because I've been betting since I was 18 years old. I never really grew up having a favorite NFL team or college football team because of my dad and my uncle's coaching styles and everything like that. So, basically, to keep things interesting for me and to have some passion and have some love into the game on a specific team, I'll throw money on it, right, because I feel like that enhances the way you watch the game at the end of the day, because that's what gambling is meant for, right? It's an entertainment value. So that's what I've been doing. 

22:52
So a couple of years ago I decided to get on TikTok, started giving out some plays. Eventually, I was hitting some plays, I was missing some plays, but I was always transparent. People would come on there, troll me, tell me I'm a squid, you know all these other names and blah, blah, blah. You know what? I just took it to the chin. I just kept on going. 

23:13
Some people just don't have that thick backbone or that thick skin or that backbone to keep going, because once you know society now if you're soft you'll probably just quit. But I kept it going, got my following up there to about 61,000. Got my following up there to about 61,000. I consider myself as one of the founders of, you know, tiktok sports betting, which right now it's so sour, which I can totally attest for now. But yeah, I've considered that and that's how I got started and I kind of brought my following to Twitter because I like kind of like tweeting about games and stuff on my mind, and you know, that's where I am today. I grew that to about 22,000. So that's where I'm at. 

23:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, jeff, why don't you give some background on yourself as well? And then, particularly how you came across JJ on Twitter and what particularly, I guess, irked you about his style and why you felt the need to jump in on his mentions pretty regularly. 

23:59 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Yeah, I've been out here in Vegas going on 11 years now, worked in the sports betting business ever since I graduated after college, moved out here, started as a ticket writer, worked my way up to a line supervisor and then when Matt Metcalf, who's our director, he got the job over at Circa, came on and was part of the management team that opened Circa Sports. So been in the industry, been out in Vegas here for about 11 years, obviously very active on Twitter and, I would say, rather outspoken Not necessarily against anything that you know JJ is doing or anything like that particularly against the softbook model that's very prevalent in today's legalized industry. I'd say, kind of how I got into this back and forth or banter with JJ was, I believe, the first interaction that we had. Jj had commented on you know a hundred TikTok people you know putting out their plays or handicappers or whatever. And then you know any of those people you know who had a hot streak or had lost a couple in a row. You know really kind of highlighting those people as to follow those people and I, just before we kind of get into the nitty gritty of that kind of stuff. 

25:27
I think you know what you had said earlier was interesting. Obviously, you know you have a large following on TikTok. You know you have 21,000 plus followers, 22,000 followers on Twitter. You know that's a large sample size of followers, given your background. I thought some of the things you said were interesting. You know that's a large sample size of followers. Given your background. 

25:46
I thought some of the things you said were interesting. You know your father coached in the NFL, your uncle coached in the NFL. Given that you've been around you know that football lineage and had so much experience with the NFL and college football and ESPN, I find some of the things that you say to be kind of puzzling. I guess you could say and it was interesting that you've said that the TikTok has kind of soured a little bit I think you have kind of a unique position, given your following, given your background, given your dad's history and things like that, that people are going to look at you as kind of a voice of authority or reason, given those things. And I think you have. 

26:32
I think if you were maybe a little bit more transparent or you didn't lean into some of these things that I believe to be misleading your followers or factually inaccurate, I think you could have even a larger platform than you do right now. So really, a lot of the things that I say or have commented on, not ever in like a disrespectful manner, it's just more of like an education manner in terms of being in the industry, understanding the public and the sharp and sharps and things that go on within the industry, the sharp and sharps and things that go on within the industry. I think a lot of what I say is just you know what I believe to be factual, um, and I think if you maybe shared some of those factual things with your, with your followers, you know, you could build a better community, a bigger community. Um, I think people would look at you in a maybe a little bit of a different manner, um, than what they look at you right now. 

27:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, jj, I'll give you an opportunity to respond to that, but I know you've said publicly before that part of the reason that you don't take that approach is Jeff particularly works for a sports book here, comes to us via Circa and I think you you know. You correct me if I'm wrong, but you take issue with someone who works for a sports book telling you what to believe and what not to believe. Is that correct? 

27:47 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I think it's a little bit of both. To be honest with you, it's just all the ways you look at it. I don't look to a dealer or I don't look to a pit boss when I'm playing blackjack, and what I need to do either hit or stay on a hand. If I do, who am I placing blame on? If I change my ways betting and I start to lose, who am I placing my blame on? I want to blame nobody but myself, so that's where I'm at with that stance. 

28:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Interesting Also part of what I want to go ahead, jeff, oh no, you're good. Okay, um, what one thing that I was very interesting about. You both use the word transparent in breaking down, um, your, your betting style, or your content style, so to speak, and Jeff basically said he would, you know, he thinks there's an opportunity for you to be more transparent. Jj, you come out and say at the beginning that you've always been transparent. Where's the disconnect happening here between between you two? So, like from your perspective, Jeff, where is JJ not being transparent with his following? 

28:42 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Yeah, you know, for me, I think, and where I continue to kind of comment on a lot of your stuff, I think the first thing that I really saw issue was was the Minnesota Viking Buffalo Bill game and when that was the game for the listeners who don't remember that Josh Allen was questionable. You know, he was in, he was out, he was in, he was out kind of all the way up, you know, leading up to the game, and once he was ruled in, I believe that you tweeted that you were increasing your wager of under 46 and a half to be a max play or, as Johnny and Rob would say, you know, a big bomb banger. And there was nothing wrong with that tweet, nothing at all. I have no issue with that tweet. You know, based on your numbers, the conviction you had, you know what your handicap was. If you thought under 46 and a half was a max play for you and you had a huge edge on it, great, you know, push your chips in. You know, obviously, wager responsibly, whatever it may be. Um, no issue with that tweet. 

29:47
My issue with that tweet to your followers, given how many people your content goes out to, was something that somebody asked in the comments and this was a twitter follower of yours who had an egg avatar. I'm presuming that somebody, you know, somebody who, who was going to follow your wager and and make a bet on this, and he simply asked a question and he said what is your logic behind the wager? And you said that your logic. I'm paraphrasing quote me, you know. Know, if I'm wrong, please correct me but you basically said something along the lines of you know, I make the game 49 and a half, but that Vegas or, you know, the sports books are using this line to trap and lure the public. Obviously, we'll get in we can get into that here in a minute but you said that you know I make the game 49 and a half. 

30:45
To me, as somebody who's in the industry, and for Rob and Johnny, who are guys who bet professionally, if you have a ton of conviction with your numbers and you believe in your numbers, they'll be the first people to tell you that if you make a game 49 and a half and the market's painted 46 and a half, that's a pretty big edge and something that you should bet accordingly. The other side of that is, you know, if you don't necessarily have as much conviction in your numbers or you're regressing your numbers to the market and let's say you regress your numbers to the market and you make the number you know 47.8. Now you know obviously that's still higher than the market, but after regressing you know your numbers to the market, you don't feel there's that big of an edge where you can bet it. To me, those are the only two things that could happen in that scenario. A you're betting the over because you have such a sizable edge. Or B after regressing your numbers to the market, you don't feel there's that big of an edge that you can bet it. Those are the only two things in that scenario that I think you could tell your followers. 

31:46
The issue I had was that you then said you basically said I'm betting under 46 and a half to your followers, but you didn't give any context behind said bet. And I think, given you know your, your father's background and then the following that you've grown, I think your followers are just going to take what they see as you tweeting at face value and they're going to max bet the under, when I would be pretty darn positive that most of these followers or people who are following your content wouldn't be out in the under if they knew the real reason that you were betting the under in that scenario. So that that was kind of what I had um in terms of my issue with that specific thing. 

32:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay. Well, so to recap, quick JJ you. You said that you liked the under 46 and a half in the game, despite your number making it 48, because you felt it was kind of like a trap game. Uh hey, if vegas is hanging this number something's off, I'm gonna bet the under, okay so yeah from there let's give jj a chance to obviously explain his rationale and take as long as you need no, I mean everyone has their own model. 

32:55 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Right at the end of the day, I feel like I don't know what you guys do or how you guys come up with your lines at the end of the day, if you guys use a computer model, if you guys use your intuition, what have you? But I found major success doing so and, like I said, I've been transparent since day one. I told people why I like it, and that's what I do. And if I didn't, you know, really justify the reasoning behind that one single tweet, um, shame on me. Um, typically I try to get out my explanations beforehand. Um, maybe I had a video out on that game as well, on my TikTok, I'm not sure. 

33:25
Actually, you know, kind of thinking back, I don't think I did. But most of the time, any kind of play I do give out, I do put a little bit of context behind it. I usually tweet them out beforehand on like the Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday before. For that one specifically, I did come out and give out a little bit of context. Now that I know on that Saturday or Friday beforehand then came up on Sunday that I'm going to be raising my unit size on this one. I'm making it a max play on my end just because of my kind of logic and how I kind of handicapped those games. 

33:52 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I guess my question for you is if, if, is this how you bet? Like, if you make a number 49 and a half and the market is 46 and a half, is that a scenario where you're betting the under in every single game, or was this? Was this game specifically differently? I mean this one's? 

34:11 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
different. You know. You know both offenses, both have firepower of offenses and I just feel, like you know, both the teams are capable of putting up 30 plus points against each other. Um, also, I look at like super bowl matchups as possible, super Bowl matchups when teams play against each other. For example, I was on the under last week against Miami and San Francisco. That one loss it wasn't a max play or anything, but I was on that play as the under and that was going to hit up until the pick six towards the end of the game. Tua doesn't get there, you know. So on and so forth. I would have won that bet. I was on the right side of that one, typically. I do like to say I'm on the right one. Right now I'm in the red in the NFL. I'll tell you that right now I've been doing pretty well in college NFL. 

34:47
I've been getting my ass kicked and people know that Because I leave my tweets up. I don't delete anything. I kind of try to recap. If I lose or win, I say, damn, this sucks, I can't believe I just joking matter. Some people yeah, I'm sure at the end of the day don't consider it as a joke, because if they do write with me, they're probably pissed off At the same time. You got to know this is still an industry where it's 21 plus years or over. These are grown men taking these bets. Okay, at the end of the day, they're the ones placing the submit button. Do I feel guilty? Of course, to be honest with you, I'd rather lose more money on my own and give these guys losers, but that's what I like to do. 

35:26
I enjoy making content. I enjoy my Twitter following. I enjoy engaging with people at the end of the day, but that goes for every single leading sports book industry, media personality wherever, because that's where I kind of want to tend to go. I feel like I bring a kind of a zesty personality side to sports betting. I'm not always just strictly by the numbers and hearing trends and everything, because if you want to see that, you can go to covers, you can go to action, you can go to all these different sites and get that information. We're just being straight on you know. So on and so forth. But I feel like I have a relatability factor when it comes down to things and that's why I think so many people kind of come together and engage in my content. 

35:58
A lot of these people. They actually fade my pics. They say I. People. They actually fade my pics. They say I'm fading, they. They tell me that all the time I don't give a fuck. 

36:11
Sorry for my language. It's good, you can, you're good, you're good to go, yeah, but but at the same time I'm just coming on here, it was basically when I first started my tiktok. I started it's just as it documented my place thinking I could be better than that next guy. Right then I, I, I'm very, you know, charismatic, I like and eventually I started getting more into the content, creating, giving out plays every day For the first year and a half, two years of my TikTok you can go back through all my videos. 

36:31
I always kept a weekly record, always kept a. I did a recap the next day over and eventually, just like time slips away from you, right, I wish I could do this full-time professionally, but I can't do that, so I have to maintain a nine to five, two kids at home. But that's also a way that people I feel like relate to me in a way, because I'm just like the average Joe, just, and the funny thing is coming from my lineage and my background. Nobody knew I was related to Jay and John until probably about like seven, six, seven months ago, and that's when I had to fall into 45,000 plus on TikTok. That's when I had a following of like 12 or 13,000 on Twitter. No one knew that until I kind of announced it, and that was after when my uncle had the shit kicked in with him. So with that being cause, I didn't want, I didn't want any of my business getting out there thinking I had like a some kind of undercover. You know, you know, you know some, what is it called? 

37:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Some you know what I mean. 

37:26 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
So, so, yeah, so that. So that's why I could, as soon as that news broke out, you know what? Now I'm going to go ahead and put it out there, because that does give me a little bit more credibility, especially watching the game from a standpoint. Betting. Standpoint maybe not so much, but then again I'm betting on my own opinion at the end of the day. 

37:40 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
And that's what I think. I think, given your background, I think you have a responsibility to tell your followers you know who you are and what that is about, because I think people are going to look at you and they're going to look at you. Know you as a voice of reason, given that background, and I think some of the stuff that you say about games being fixed and you know vegas, luring the public and things I've never said a game is fixed. 

38:07 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Never once I said the game was fixed. Um, that's the reason why I didn't want to give out who I was, uh, when my uncle and my dad were coaching. So let's cut that one out first. Secondly, no, I mean I and no, I mean I'm just saying from seeing from, from betting on football since I was 18 years old and I know that's not good, because you shouldn't be betting until you're 21 years old but I've been betting since I was 18. I've seen things happen and I feel like this is the logic that's made me work and made money. And think about it. Two years ago I didn't have a following of anybody right, and I grew this without giving out my name and who I was as a person. That's because I was hitting bets. I was giving out logical, I worked hard to get where I was today. 

38:47 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Nobody's debating that, nobody. Yeah, that's not really the point of what I'm saying. I think there's just a response. 

38:57 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
But, but, but then, but that that shows you that I was hitting left and right. And then I'm starting to gain a following. And sure, again, sure, I'm sure some of the average does are seeing, like my, my huge fall and they hop on, but then again it happened. 

39:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean, that's everybody, though, in this industry so let me take a step back here quick, um, just to recap. So, jj, um, first off, kudos to you for, uh, you know, keeping transparent, uh, keeping a clean record, making sure that you're not deleting play stuff like that. Obviously that doesn't go unnoticed, appreciate it in the space. Um, I also want to like um kind of take a step back and say like, hey, listen, yeah, um, so jay gruden is your dad. He's a former coach in the nfl. John, uh, gruden is you are sorry, is it other way around? 

39:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
no, that's jay's father's uncle. 

39:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah john gruden, obviously, um, multiple years as well in not just behind the bench, like not just as a coach, also just in media and stuff like that. So what I was going to say is forget all that, though, because you kind of actually built your following without that kind of brand name. So that's awesome and it's cool that you have that. But even without that, I think what a lot of people are curious about is kind of like rationale behind the plays, because you're a good representation of the community that is not necessarily a professional better. You mentioned yourself you're working nine to five. You got to two kids. You're just. 

40:06
You're just a fan of the sport, charismatic guy, loves football. Nothing wrong with that, been around football your whole life. So I think, um, instead of actually going and be like yeah, okay, well, there's a responsibility because of like your dad and your uncle, like forget about all that I honestly want to steer this conversation potentially in a way where it's like, as a someone who is not a professional better, just loves betting and being around the sport, where are we in terms of some of these like things that you have said? So the the main question I have is you said you, you made the game 49 and a half. So you you technically like the over. Why are you betting under? Is it like? What's the game situation Like? Let's get into that logic as a better and forget about all the rest of this stuff. 

40:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's pretty clear you have like a sorry JJ. Just to continue Like it's pretty clear, you have some contrarian tendencies, basically like where did that start for you and why do you think that that's actually meaningful? 

40:57 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I mean I think I've started like a few years ago doing this. I've been doing this the same thing the same way since I even started. That's how I've been betting. I've been successful doing it. That's how I built the fall into where I am today by betting these contrarian tendencies. I saw that value in there. I thought that this was made sense. Both offenses were on fire. They're scoring X amount of points per game. They dropped this total down six or seven points or wherever that where I think it should be. I just think that public is seeing that as a 46 and a half. 

41:24
Two high powered offenses shouldn't, no matter what, hit that over and from a kick return and from a couple other little things that happened during that game. You know, a botched fumble on the on the one yard line, things on that nature. I mean they could have been either way. I mean sure I shouldn't maybe say it's a max play, but I would go back and I'll do the same thing over and over again. Now there's other plays like that that's worth mentioning. 

41:45
Let's just talk about college football, for instance. Let's talk about the national championship last year, georgia, alabama. The week before, the couple weeks before, a couple games before sec championship. Who was favored in that game? Right it was. It was georgia, minus seven and a half. They were given saving seven and a half points, eight points, whatever it was. Uh, you're gonna give me that on the money line. A lot of the people they ended up betting that I left that game alone just because it was the sec championship wanted to see what happened. Sec championship was brutal for me this year too. People know that as well. Um, but in that circumstance bama ended up winning by 17 points. 

42:19
Fast forward national championship. You got georgia, alabama, again georgia. Now they're sitting at minus three point favorites. No injuries happened on either side of the ball or either side of the ball for either team. And you're back to giving Nick Saban, who just blew out Georgia by 17 points, plus money. Also, you're giving them points and when you know his record against his old former coaches, you saw what happened there. I think a lot of people saw that as an opportunity to cash in, especially being the college national championship last game of the year for these two teams. So I feel like a lot of money and I think jeff correct me if I'm wrong I bet you saw a lot more money coming in on, uh, that alabama side, more so than you did georgia, and uh, that's one of those I saw, and I made that play a max play on my end that Georgia minus three to the national championship ended up hitting for a nice amount of money. I even took the alternate line over as well. 

43:12 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Well, I mean, what I would tell you, and, as it relates to that, is the market is the market? 

43:18
You know, people who are betting small amounts of money aren't moving the market and whatever number that we're hanging on the board and with the big limits that we're taking, we're not shading two points, three points, four points, five points off, because we think the public's going to come in and bet one side. 

43:37
When we open a number, obviously the limits are going to be lower than what you would get at post, but when we open a number, we're opening a number that we think is the correct number, and then the market, being professionals like Johnny and Rob, are then going to come in express their opinion in the form of limit bets, and our goal as the sports book is then to get to the right price, both as cheaply and efficiently as possible. So this kind of notion that the you know sports books or Vegas is trying to trap bettors or lure people is kind of not kind of. It is false. And the reason that you saw the line being different in the national championship game than versus the SEC championship game is because the market reacts to things that they see information, injuries, bets and what happens on the field, and that's why the line was different when you got to the national championship game than versus what you saw in the SEC championship game but both. 

44:37 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Both teams are on a neutral field in the SEC championship and the national championship. No injuries on either side. They come in and it's a four and a half point differential still in favor of Georgia. After that'll happen. And look, I'm. I'm just thinking. I'm not saying that there's things as trap lines, but I feel like though and you know you were. You said you were a ticket writer. You said you were a supervisor. You said now you're the operations manager. Are you, are you a lines maker? Do you know their tendencies? Do you know what sports books are going inside? How do I know that? You're not just saying that just to protect them on their end? So that's the thing. I just don't know. 

45:09 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
And booking the bets. But I work very closely with our risk guys and I can tell you that they're not putting things three, four, five points off market, because then you're going to have the professionals who are going to come in and are going to put us into place very, very quickly, and a four-and-a-half point move from the SEC championship game to the national championship game, based on what happened on the field is is not a large move. 

45:47 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
So I think go ahead JJ I don't know, I think that's a pretty large move. 

45:51 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I mean, you're, you've got three points, two and a half, three points just to a field goal game other than a touchdown or more, I mean I mean I mean, if you look at, if you look at this year with Michigan and Ohio State, you know Ohio State I can't remember exactly what it closed, but I think it closed north of a touchdown between Ohio State and Michigan in Ohio State. I think it closed nine. And now on, look ahead lines for the college football championship. If it's Ohio State, michigan, the market has it at two and a half three. So that's an even bigger move than what you saw in the previous game. So I would say four, four and a half points, based on what happened. You know you're adjusting Bama up two points, you're downgrading Georgia two points. I think those are fairly nominal things when you think about the betting market. 

46:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It feels to me, JJ, like you have a fundamental distrust in anyone from a sportsbook speaking publicly about something and you feel like there is an intent to mislead. Is that? 

46:49 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
true, two ways, right. I think if you see someone, some people would trust someone working from sports book, which is fine, you know you'd want them to be your friend, you want them to help you out. Whatever there could be like a little bit of a, like a pillow, I feel like our soft landing spot to trust them with what their opinion is. But at the end of the day, I mean I just I don't like, I wouldn't try, like you know, I I mean at the end of the day, I mean you see sports books doing promotions, um, you know, giving minus 250 uh games out, bringing them down to minus 110 or whatever, it is, just to give you boosts basically, and how many of those boosts have hit this year? I mean tall and unlucky, as you want, but I mean still it's a little fishy. 

47:36 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Um, I, I just I, just I will give you credit in in that sense that listening to people who work for softbooks, I wouldn't listen to them. So I would agree with your assessment there. At Circus Sports we don't do free bets, we don't do promos, we don't do any of that frilly shit that you see elsewhere in the industry. And I'm speaking sometimes on Circus Sports behalf and a lot of times on my own behalf as somebody who bets or as somebody who's in the industry. So I think it can be difficult for people who follow me to come, you know, in terms of conflating the two. But I think Johnny and Rob would tell you that, from a somebody who works behind the counter and somebody who works for an operator, there's nobody who's more transparent than Circa Sports and there's nobody more transparent than myself. And I also wouldn't say like I'm reinventing the wheel, like nothing I'm saying is earth-shattering, like me saying that home field advantage in the nfl is not worth three points, like that shouldn't blow anyone's mind. That's just like factual. 

48:37 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
So I agree with that, but to an extent and you saw what I said to that I think it's to an extent of home field advantage, because there's certain places where you play where is it is harder and there's a bigger home crowd than what some of these other smaller teams, right now especially, weren't very good bring to the table. 

48:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So, jj, I'll give my opinion here on the on the whole. You know what's the? What's the trap line kind of thing? How does work? And obviously for me, like I don't work for a sports book, I'm giving the betters perspective here. Basically, when you say like hey, someone is hanging a trap line, like, oh, this line can't be good, like you know how is. How is seattle, uh, only a six point underdog to russell wilson, that the opening game of the season versus denver broncos, denver's got all these things. They just signed all these guys. Like, how is it only minus six? It should be like minus 12. Like, what's going on? 

49:28
I think one thing to realize and this might help a lot is that the actual sports book is not making the line, they just make the opening line. So once the opening line is made, whatever then happens to the line is dictated by other people in the market, including people who are betting, including people who are betting large amounts of money, but also including professional better. So when you say like, oh, it's a trap line, the sports book itself has essentially nothing to do with that, although they are the ones hanging the number and taking the bet. That line is being shaped by sports better. So if a sports book hangs minus six in that scenario and all of the sharp betters who have won millions of dollars over the course of their careers, tens, hundreds of millions, depending on some of the groups are all on one side, the sports book is not going to leave that number up there because they they know some info they're going to, they're going to shade that and they're going to move that in the direction of where the sharp money is coming in. So so at Circa Sports, the way their model works we've had people on from Circa to explain this and the way that the Pinnacle model works as well is they profile the bettors who win, who have consistently win, who have consistently beat the lines, closing line value, and then they will shade the lines more based on those players and where they're coming in and where they're betting. 

50:44
So, ultimately, like Jeff and Matt Metcalf uh, who's the actual head of trading there is not actually putting out a line that he thinks is good, he's putting out a line that everyone in the world who has access to circus sports thinks is the correct line. So there's really no trap line here, because the sports book themselves are not. They're not putting the number up it's, it's dictated by every single person in the world and if somebody else thought, hey, this is the wrong line, they'd come in, they'd bet the max amount of money they had on that. That would be within their bankroll and over time it would all just adjust out because they'd keep winning money and keep betting more and et cetera, et cetera. So, um, maybe I didn't do the best job explaining that, but love to hear your comments on that. Jj, that the market sets the line, as opposed to, uh, like jeff himself or the sports book, I mean at the end of the day. 

51:30 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I think you could put a number out anywhere you look at it and people are going to bet the game. I mean, that's just factual. I think bettors are going to bet. At the end of the day, you can put along wherever you want it. Obviously you want to make it uh for sports, but make their but. But anyway, let's let's. 

51:51
Let's just bring in another example with Dallas, because I saw Dallas and was it Dallas and Minnesota? I mean, jeff, I know you know about this one and I agree with you. I think Dallas could have been the favorites there. They should have been the favorites that are better team right now. I think they're better at the end of the day, but I mean just from a public perception point. 

52:10
Um, I just don't see how vegas could have set that line to make an away team an underdog, especially in a play playing a place like minnesota, because when we talk about the home field advantage, minnesota should get the three points or whatever, that extra three, no matter what, and I, I think now, being at home, I think, I think I do concede dallas being like a seven point favorite or whatever at home if they play again, but at that certain place in time. I just don't see that and I just feel like, with dallas being america's team, right, and you're going to see them getting plus points, I think a lot of people to hammer that side. But instead I feel like the line was set at one point uh, minus one for Dallas to kind of prevent that from happening, because I feel like a lot of people took advantage of that plus money in the beginning, once the line opened. 

52:58 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Yeah, I mean. What I would say to that is I mean there's not an odds maker on this planet that's giving Minnesota three points at home field in today's NFL. I mean people can argue with me. 

53:12 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Why is that? Why is the home field different now, when you have one of the loudest stadiums that are actually marked down, one of the most loyal fan bases and Minnesota Viking fans that come to this game, be it loud as hell. School chant everything. It's an intimidating place to play. What makes that place not get that? Three points. 

53:30 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I mean after COVID, I think this was really highlighted. I mean there's less fans in the stand, erosion of referee bias. Travel is much easier on athletes. Rob is somebody who bets NFL professionally. He can probably quantify home field advantage much better than I can. But I would say that home field advantage now is, you know, worth zero to 1.75 points, and then you can extrapolate that out based on specific teams and specific stadiums. 

53:59
But you know, getting back to the point of Dallas versus Minnesota, let's say that Vegas thought the line was whatever it was and let's say you know they opened. You know Minnesota minus three. That's what Vegas decided to make the number. Once the number opens to Johnny's point, people are going to come in and you know, max bet whatever side they like at the current number on the board and the market is going to move that number to what that number should be. 

54:36
When you look at Minnesota, it's the exact same argument I've had with people on Twitter the last two days. Minnesota is 10 and two and they're a two and a half point underdog versus the five and seven Detroit Lions and the public can't seem to wrap their head around how this is possible. But when you dig a little deeper. It's not just about records, it's about metrics, success rate, epa per play, all these different things that go into making a number and how bettors are viewing these teams. And I think when you throw out record as kind of being a talking point and you dig a little deeper in terms of what sharp bettors or what the market is looking at to quantify this team versus that team, I think that's going to help get you to a better handicap than if you didn't do that otherwise. 

55:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to jump in here I want to say by the way, jj, I know that this is a little bit difficult for you because you're a different type of better than myself, johnny and Jeff. So definitely appreciate you being, you know, in this conversation. I know it can seem like we're teaming up on you and that's definitely not the intent. But I just have a question because you know you pointed out the cowboys and vikings game right as an example and I completely get that. And that's one of those where essentially I I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it's like in your head that line could never be that line. So you know the cowboys got to be the play and you're referencing that game as an example. 

56:08
But but the issue that I have personally is I can think of a million other games where the exact same logic applies and it doesn't work out and it feels like people are not. 

56:21
You know they don't take that into account or they just like gloss over it, like let's use an example from this past week's Thursday night football New England Patriots take a bunch of money, they go six, five and a half all the way down. They close a three and a half point home dogs to the buffalo bills. And there's this narrative of like, well, the bills should be favored by way more than this. Like what is this number? New england has to be the play and the bills just cover wire to wire and and like it seems like it's just ignored in the contrarian argument or it just like those types of games completely get dismissed. And that's the issue I have with that kind of logic is like if you're going to look at one side of the equation and say, okay, somebody knows something, then like how do you ignore it with the rest of the games where the same logic Well, that one, though that's a division game on the road. 

57:11 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I think those are different, totally different. I think. I think Minnesota and Dallas you had two guys that are not in the same division, don't play each other often, but you have Buffalo and new England, and I believe new England beat Buffalo last year at home, did they not? Not in the playoffs, but not in the playoffs but in the regular season. So I mean, a division game is a little different. 

57:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But see, this is it Like I can cherry pick results, right? What do you mean? A division game? 

57:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But here, like here's the example, like even this past week, right, I'm not a public consensus guy, I barely ever look at public consensus stuff, but I get these. You know, I have friends that bet in this manner and they send in these screenshots on Sunday morning of here's, where the public is at, and it's like 84% of the bets, uh, are on the Browns, at the Texans, which is like, oh, people think it's, it's free money, it's Deshaun Watson's back and the Texans stink. Texans got to be the side and guess what? No, they're not the side. They end up losing 27-14. I know there's defensive touchdowns in that game and whatever, but like that's a non-divisional game, you know it, like I can. I can always find a scenario that is like like fits my prerogative as well. This is. This is where I have an issue with it. Yeah. 

58:21 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I, I, I hear what you're saying but again I pick and choose those just a little bit more so than the regular guy. I mean I just don't stay in sport from sport. Like don't think that I'm not betting on college basketball tonight, because there's a couple different lines tonight that I feel like are a little huh like a head-scratcher. Wisconsin hosting who's Wisconsin hosting tonight? 17. I mean their hosts. I forgot who they're hosting, but they're one-and-a-half-point favorites against a ranked team. They're at home. I know those places kind of get loud. 

58:51
It's hard to play on the road as a college kid and everything like that. That's one of those games. And then you're looking at Iona-St Louis. St Louis is a great team. Iona. I mean let's talk about Iona. They're plus one-and-a being on the even, being on the road. But you know, I just think that that's a. That's a weird line too. There's many different other examples, but I just try to look for the ones I feel like are the ones that you know. I think public bettors, because I've been betting for so long. Look, especially being with in a group chat that I'm with with a bunch of friends, a bunch of idiots that they're looking for that kind of advantage that lose 40 percent of the time because of this, or 60 percent of the time, 70% of the time because of those certain kind of bets. 

59:31 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I think the thing that I have a problem with in the content space is people and you see this on Twitter is people are so results oriented versus process driven, and I think if people got back to that process and why they made a certain pick, why they made a certain play, what that rationale behind it was, instead of cherry picking certain things, it would just lend to more credence for what people's argument is. 

01:00:01 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
But look at it this way I'm one of those guys and I think you accused me, jeff. I've had other people accuse me of selling. I sell picks, or whatever it is. I don't sell picks. I think there's a, jeff. I've had other people accuse me of selling. I sell picks, or whatever it is. I don't sell picks. 

01:00:11
I think there's a lot more poisonous avenues in this industry that won't get resolved, that people need to be worried about, than me calling out like a trap line, even though I do have this kind of a following. 

01:00:22
You want to try to mold the industry into somewhere that you want to take it, but at the end of the day, it's never going to get there. It's never going to get there. People are going to bet the way they want to bet. People are the ones at the end of the day handing their money over to the cashier, hitting the submit button, because they're the ones who got all this knowledge from everybody else. Yeah, maybe they're not following my exact play, or maybe they're following my play, or maybe they're taking that, thinking that they're going to take the under but they ended up staying away because I was on it, so on and so forth. Or maybe they still take the under who knows? They gather all the information from all the outlets, people that they like to follow, they like to listen to and, at the end of the day, they make their own decision. 

01:00:57 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I agree, it's 100%. Whoever is placing that bet and hitting the submit button, it's their responsibility to do whatever due diligence they have to do and make sure that they feel comfortable with whatever bet they're submitting I think rightly or wrongly, given your following and given your history and your background and things like that making sure that you're being 100% transparent and that the things that you're saying are factual. I think you do have some responsibility to that. 

01:01:29 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I mean I do, I mean I feel like I, I feel like I do, but again, I'm every single play that I put out. I'm just not fucking putting out a line or a play that I'm not personally on. I'm actually you know, I try to back up with bat slips, I try to back up everything I'm you know what I'm doing with and I recap the games. I'll leave it all out. I'm as transparent as they come again. I do love to bet. That's one of my favorite hobbies to do. It's just a way for me to kind of bet on myself, because that's what a lot of business oriented minded people do, and that's where I, that's where I got to today. I'm going to continue doing the way I've been betting. It might not be right, some people might not like, like it, you know. Um, so be it. But um, there's only a certain I feel like there's only a certain extent to get somebody to get to do what you want to do and people don't like it. 

01:02:18 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
then there's that trust me, there's a lot of people in this industry, particularly all the softbook operators, who don't like anything I do or say so I I know where the hatred's coming from, my man. Oh yeah, I mean, it's all good. 

01:02:30 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I mean like for me, I mean I, I and like I, I personally, I know you guys work for sports books and everything, but again, I think the vig is is craziness too. My, I think 10 is just way too much. Um, that's why I think a lot of people are now starting to open up peer-to-peer wagering. I don't know, I don't know, you guys are gonna cut this out. You know, I think peer-to-peer is a little bit more valuable, especially for big-time bettors and things like that. So I think that's time to come. Yeah. 

01:02:55 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I would say that you know if you play at certain sportsbooks. You know that, like Circus Sports or like a Pinnacle, which I know Johnny and Rob are very fond of, you know you're playing into a sportsbook that has a low hold. You know you're playing into a sports book that has a low hold and you know, if you're playing into a lot of these places that you're playing same game parlays or you're playing into markets, you know where the theoretical hold is. You know double or triple that of what you'd see at. You know something that we would offer, what Pinnacle would offer. Yeah, I mean I would say the VIG is crazy. So I mean, I think line shopping and preaching some of these important you know what I like to say are kind of betting one-on-one concepts to your followers. You know, I think that'd be a great way for you to continue to be transparent and for you to continue to grow your following um in an organic and healthy way. Is, you know, probably what I would, what I would recommend. 

01:03:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to circle back to one other thing that you said, jj, which I, if this was a while ago now, but it's fine, conversation has been good, um, and, and it's progressed. Uh, you mentioned about, uh, recreational sports books offering odds boosts and, you know, boosting something from whatever you know, plus two, 50 to plus one, plus one, 10 to plus two, 50 and they're minus two, 50 to minus one. 

01:04:08
Either way, the odds boosts that are very prevalent in the space nowadays, right, and it seems to me that you have some sort of kind of like a spidey sense, so to speak and that like a skepticism, in that you feel like the sports book is trying to intentionally like. I'd like to hear this from your perspective in terms of do you think that they know something? Like they're trying to entice somebody into betting something that's going to lose, like what do you think is the motivation for these odds boosts? 

01:04:40 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I think it's a double-edged sword. One end of enticing you're not every day better to hop on their app and take advantage of this promotion and get them on there to make those bets in order to hopefully get them to stick with either promotions or match bonuses, etc, etc. And then on the other end, you got guys that are seeing this, you know, as a boost, like, for example, one of my favorites was Cordell Patterson. It was on Thursday Night Football Just to score a touchdown. It was boosted from, like you know, minus 120 to like a plus 200 play where you can max bet at from to like $25 to $100, depending on what account you were on or who you were. Cordell Patterson scored a touchdown in almost every single game before that game on Thursday night and had a bunch of yards. He's one of the bigger fantasy players from the public eye just trying to get people to. They don't have to score a touchdown because you think it's a no-brainer, especially going up against. I forgot who they were playing against, not the Saints, it was the. 

01:05:42
Panthers, Panthers yeah, especially against a team like the Panthers when you think that they could easily score, especially the game two weeks prior. That game was a shootout, remember, it was like a 36, 30 ball game or whatever it was. And I think Cordell Patterson I don't know if he scored on that one or if he was playing or not, but but then again that kind of all kind of goes into it, but it's just. It's just. It's just weird, because I've tweeted that lot of times too this season where I've called out boost, not hitting. I think the last one I saw hitting was derrick henry when tennessee played. I think it was like to score a touchdown or to to have a certain amount of rushing attempts or whatever it was when they finally got a hit. But prior to that, I mean all, all some of these sports folks I mean none of these promotions are hitting but what if I? 

01:06:25 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
what if I said that was just the law of averages and that Cordero Patterson not scoring in that spot? Was how it played out and that the sports book had nothing to do with that. What's your response to that? 

01:06:39 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
The law of averages. I mean the law of averages thing, you know. I mean maybe that's, maybe that's there to their, to their point. Maybe they knew that that was going to happen to me. The sports book knew the law of averages are going to happen. That's why they're going to promote that specific boost Again why I don't trust a sports book. 

01:06:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to present you with an alternate theory here, and you're willing to tell me if I'm an idiot or if you think that there's. 

01:07:01 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I don't think anybody's an idiot, Johnny. I don't think anyone's an idiot. 

01:07:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, that's fine. Either way, I'll present you with another theory here altogether. 

01:07:09
And one of the worst experiences for a better is when they deposit into a sportsbook and they just lose a bunch of money right away. They're usually going to have a bad experience with that sportsbook. They probably don't want to bet there again. Odds boost is a way for the sportsbook to offer the better a plus EV wager most of the time, which actually gets them to win, gives them a positive experience in the sports book and allows them to stick around longer, because the sports book knows that that player is very unlikely to just withdraw those winnings right away. What would you think about that theory instead? 

01:07:43 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I mean sports books have that in general in every sport. I mean it just depends on what it is. But I mean, yeah, they try to be nice, I guess. I mean they want to entice the players that they currently have and want to get them to bet more. That's their end goal. They want to make as much money as they can off of a better and have them use their book. But then also you've got to think about, like some of the other odds boost compared to the other ones. Like I mean like, for an example, like when you first sign up, say on DraftKings or wherever you're signing up for, um, that $5, $100, $200 on Steph Curry to make a jump shot, I mean that's one boost. That's to get the person who hasn't deposited yet to get onto their book, to get on their thing. That's a totally different kind of promotion and I feel like some of these promotions are still set in a way for them to entice action and get action in specific spots. For an example, cordell Patterson. 

01:08:31 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Yeah, but what I would tell you is if I gave you three to one on flipping a coin heads or tails and you chose heads and I gave you three to one and it just happened to be tails, are you saying that you wouldn't do that again, or that I was? 

01:08:46 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I think flipping a coin is a lot different than sports betting. That I was. I think flipping him a coin is a lot different than sports betting. 

01:08:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, it depends on the odds, right, like it's semantics, for sure, because there, but but I think that's a good example personally, that Jeff gave like it could be rolling a dice, it could be whatever game of chance, like. I think what Jeff is alluding to here is the possibility that you're still making a very good bet and just happen to lose it, and that's just like part of the process. 

01:09:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hold up here. So, jj, you're right and a lot of things you're saying here right. So, first off, the promotions you're saying to actually deposit to a sports book, like the new, new signup bonuses, like 100%, those are different. The reason they do that they'll be like okay, you know, win 250 bucks if the Raptors score one point, one, three pointer, something like that. Yeah, that's like very likely to hit. What they're doing there is just substituting that from just giving you the $200 signup bonus. Those are competition offers to get you to sign up with their platform versus a competing platform. So we'll throw those ones away. In terms of what you're saying, those are not like. Those are just there so that they can get you to sign up to their own platform. 

01:09:55
The ones that you're referring to now are the boost that they give as like special promotions to everyone who's already on their platform, and I think the what your point is is very valid and you were right about it, but Rob's point is also correct. So those sports book boosts that they're giving are strictly plus EV promotions. Plus EV meaning plus expected value. I mean, if you play those a million times, you will win on those boosts. 

01:10:20
However, overall, why are they giving you that and JJ saying here well, if they're giving you that like these, this sports book wants you to lose. They're literally trying to take money from you. That's their business and you're a hundred percent right about that. But I think it's a little bit of a different way. So those books are giving you that boost because they want you to play more, they want you to have a good experience, they want you to redeposit their book and they know that in the long run you're going to lose that money with their book on other. So are they giving you that because they want to just give you a hundred bucks? No, absolutely not. However, they are giving you free money in that bet and then later you are going to lose that money at the book If you continue Exactly. 

01:11:00 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
And that's the thing I mean. So they I mean it's a way for them to go ahead and send out emails saying, oh, we got this boost. Going on, blah, blah, blah, blah. Way, how about you deposit, put some money on this one, hopefully you win. So in turn, you'll start betting that, no matter what their, their hope is for you to deposit the money to make that specific bet. Get, make that money, because if they're really trying to help you, they wouldn't make the limit. A hundred dollars on that specific, you know, promotion. And, by the way, JJ. 

01:11:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
what happens there is like you're in all these group chats you mentioned, we're, we're all on social media. What happens is like so they say okay, you bet on Justin Herbert to throw one touchdown pass today and we'll give you plus a hundred for one touchdown pass which he's gotten, whatever every game last. 

01:11:36 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
What happens is they. 

01:11:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They do that. And then guys like JJ are going to type it in their group chat hey boys, look at this, deposit in. You can get better a hundred bucks on this. And now everyone deposits and you send it to your cousin, you send to your brother, you send it to all your buddies. Your group chat, everyone deposits in, they ride that. 

01:11:52
What happens is, most of the time they're going to win that bet. Law of averages states they're going to win that bags. It's a plus cv bet. Justin herbert, throw one touchdown pass at plus 100, you're going to win that bet. Now you deposit in your 101. Now you have 200 in your account. 

01:12:07
Most 9.5 out of 10 are going to dunk that away and lose that in the future on parlays, whatever it might be. So for DraftKings, as a promo, they are expecting you to win on that specific Justin Herbert bet. They are expecting you to lose that money there afterwards. Thus they are making money on the promotion. However, that specific bet is a loss leader, so to speak. The same way, at a grocery store, they're going to take a loss on one item to get you into their grocery store knowing you're going to spend on other items. So I wouldn't necessarily say they know something, it's fixed. They gave me the shittiest odds boost on Patterson Herbert loss. How did he lose? How did Cooper? Cup was only game. He didn't get a touchdown. Those were all good plays. You play those all. You're going to win. But your point is well taken. The sportsbooks are not your friends. They're not trying to let you win money. They're not just giving you thousands of dollars. So I agree with you there. 

01:13:03 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
The goal is a better, either recreationally or professionally, is to make as many plus EV wagers as possible. So if a sports book continues to give you Cordero Patterson plus $2 anytime touchdown when the actual true price is minus 120, whether you win or lose on that specific bet, if you continue to make those kinds of bets in the long run, betting to betting plus $2 when something's minus 120, your bankroll over time, as Johnny alluded to, is something that's going to grow yeah, any comments on that? 

01:13:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
jj, so I think we agree here. 

01:13:35 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
We're just like disagreeing that one specific wager yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean again, like I'm sure they're not trying to purposely do that. So I for me in my eyes, I've seen it happen last year, I've seen it happen this year I just will never take a promotion from that, because I've seen him lose more. So that way, maybe it's just that's just the way it is and and it's just the unluckiness role. But, um, no, I I get that they're just trying to entice the gambler to come back on, deposit more money, bet the games and and just hope that they continue to bet on their platform. It's just a way to kind of give back to all the degenerates that they have on their app already. So that's that. 

01:14:11 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Have you considered gambling public? And they look at the Justin Herbert or Cordero Patterson thing, that those are people who are the definition of results oriented versus process driven. And if Herbert and Patterson scored, you know, if Herbert got more than one touchdown and Patterson scored an anytime touchdown, they would say thanks for the free money. But because it doesn't work out, then it's. You know it's fixed. Or the sports books you know knew what the result was going to be. Or you know all of the conspiracy theorists at that point come out. 

01:14:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
JJ. Instead of not playing that, for example, the Justin Herbert booze have you considered just playing it? The opposite? No, no, playing it and then playing the opposite at the correct price at another sportsbook and then guaranteeing yourself some profit on a hedge. 

01:14:56 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Well, but I mean you can't bet, you can only max out on a certain amount. I mean what? $50 or $100? I mean, I haven't really thought about it like that, no, but I'd rather just, Honestly, I just think it's funny when they promote those and they lose. And you know, that's basically it for me. 

01:15:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just have you considered betting 100 for 200 on cordero patterson at plus 200? The book was draft kings they weren't that. 

01:15:20 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
On that, on that specific bet, it was a max of 25 bucks okay. 

01:15:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So if it was a max 25 also even more likely, it was a good wager as opposed to a bad wager. 

01:15:29 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
But the lower the limit, the better, better the wager is. 

01:15:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's say the Herbert one. The Herbert one was actually $250, at least here in Ontario. I'm not sure if it's different in Virginia or somewhere in the US, but the Herbert wager was $250 for him to score one. So over 0.5 pass TDs plus 100. You could have got that same day under 1.5 half past tds at plus 100. So yeah, would you? Would you consider just betting 250 at draftkings on the over half and then playing? 

01:15:56 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
yeah, just basically arbitraging it right, playing back for 250 on pinnacle, uh on the under for plus 100. 

01:16:03
As bad as it sounds, guys and this is again coming from me, someone who loves to bet and loves the thing I I'm not that type of style of bettor. I know that's stupid, because it's free money right At the end of the day it's free money. So I'm sorry to disappoint you guys, but I'd much rather, as crazy as it sounds, I'd rather just take one side and be right or wrong about it and just call it a day. 

01:16:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you're not disappointing anyone. I think everyone's entitled is risking their own money. They're entitled to bet however they want. So that's just the reality of the situation. I'm just. I would ask you like, put yourself, let's say you're managing DraftKings, you're the sportsbook director of DraftKings, you've gone out of your way to create this huge promotion of like. You know, we're offering Cordero Patterson to score a touchdown, and then Cordero Patterson doesn't score a touchdown, and then Cordero Patterson doesn't score a touchdown in that game. And I'm asking you this sincerely if you're the draft King sports book manager, at that time are you in the back room celebrating that all these people have lost that boost, or are you saying, damn it, we have to say damn it. 

01:17:03
Right, so this is exactly my point. 

01:17:06 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Yeah, no, I'm, I'm, I know, I'm saying damn it, but you know. But again, you know, but again you know, I just it's just funny how it works out. And uh, that's just just how I see things. I, I see what, I see how you guys are trying to make this seem and everything. But then again, I mean really, what do we know? What do we know their intent? I mean, obviously, that that would be my intent and what I would try to do, um, but then again, what do we really know and what their intent is in the background? 

01:17:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, we don't really know anything and I trust Jeff at face value and I've met Jeff in person and I think he's pretty transparent and I think he has an honest, you know, innate desire to help educate people. And I can understand why someone might see that as fishy, because somebody might say well, why is the sports book, who has a vested interest in me being a dummy, better and I'm not calling you a dummy, by the way, I'm just speaking to like you know. You know why would they have a vested interest in educating the public? So I get that, but I take what everything Jeff says at face value and I try to absorb as much information as possible and I take it at face value. I think to each their own. 

01:18:12
I think we've covered a wide variety of topics so far. I don't think we've resolved anything with this conversation over the course of an hour. I think we're back at square one. But before we do wrap it up, is there anything that either of you wants to get off of your chest, wants to say to the other person? This is an open forum to do so. I'll give you the opportunity first, jj, if there's anything else that we haven't touched on that you wanted to bring up directly with Jeff. 

01:18:38 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Yeah, fuck you, jeff. No, I'm just kidding. Look, at the end of the day, I don't care Again. I have never blocked anybody on my channels, not once, because I feel like, you know, if I lose from what I'm doing, I feel like that's the least I could do is have people call me some names and stuff like that, people criticize me the way I bet and everything like that. Is it going to change things? No, not at all. That's what I knew coming on here. It's really not going to change the way I think about things and and my point of view, just because I've been around it and I again. 

01:19:06
I've. I've heard this stuff before from others. I've been trying to talk to you, but again, that's just the way I. I look at things, man, and um, uh, it's nothing against, jeff, it's just the way I think I can. I can say this about others too, because I'm sure they feel the same way, just the way I do. It's hard to get those people to kind of transform over to this industry. And again, only 1% what is it? 1% of all sports bettors across everywhere is successful as actual successful sports bettor. You have these professionals. You have all these guys out there now selling picks and saying that they're, you know, their win rates high, which is obviously some bullshit too. But I feel like that number should increase here shortly. And at the end of the day, you know, the lights are on Vegas for one reason, and that's for people to lose. 

01:19:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So oh yeah, Jeff, the floor is yours. 

01:19:50 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Yeah, I mean I would say that, you know, do I have a massive, massive, massive issue with what you're doing? Um on on Twitter and Tik TOK, no, I are there a ton of way worse actors who are way more misrepresenting themselves in the space? Absolutely, um, you know I've enjoyed our playful. You know, banter. You know, over the last couple of weeks, you know, the only thing I would say is, like, you know, looking back at your Twitter, you know you said something last weekend about. You know, it seems like Vegas is, you know, based on the games I've watched, you know, in college football today, it seems like Vegas is paying off these athletes, things like that and tweets like that. 

01:20:30 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
It seems like Vegas is paying off these athletes, things like that and tweets like that. That was just a fun one, man. That was just a fun one Some of some of it. 

01:20:34 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Man, you just got to be following me for a while to know what my personality was, I know, but I think there's a lot of people who may have just followed you last week and they don't. They take it just like Rob takes what I say at face value. They take based on your history and your background and the following you've grown, they take what you say at face value. So I think, in terms of this space, you know, and I probably said things that I wish I could take back and things like that but you have to be super careful about how you characterize yourself and the things that you say. Even in that scenario scenario I know you were joking, but I think there's going to be a lot of people who look at you and look at you saying that and then are led to believe that. 

01:21:15
And you know, I don't know whether you believe that Vegas goes up to college athletes and pays them off. You know, I think in a match fixing scandal, you know the only people who gets hurt in that regard would be, you know, sports books, because gamblers in the know are betting with these sports books and taking us for money on quote unquote, a fixed outcome or something that's already known. So, given your following, the only thing I would say is I would just be very careful and, like I said, I'm not gambling Twitter police or anything like that, and if people don't think I'm knowledgeable or they don't want to follow me, that doesn't hurt my feelings any less. I would just say for you, as you continue to try to grow your following and you want to be transparent, saying things about you know that kind of stuff I would just be very careful going down that road. 

01:22:03 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I wouldn't say the books pay off, but there's been way too many situations where the mob was involved, point shaving scandals. 

01:22:10 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Nobody's arguing that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you said Vegas pays college athletes, which I took quite a bit of umbrage with. 

01:22:17 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Right, right and at the end of the day, if anyone found out that's the truth, sports betting would go gone. But to the point about setting lines and traps, I do want to end it with this because I do got to go, but the last few tweets, because you commented on a couple of them. I threw a couple of Vegas traps out there on my own because I knew you were going to comment on some of my videos let's go. 

01:22:38
And you fell in the trap, just like a lot of the public does you got me hook line and sinker? 

01:22:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
JJ. We asked all of our guests this question. So, before you go, one quick one for you. One quick one for you. If you could go back in time five years and give yourself a piece of advice, as we life. Advice doesn't have to be related to betting, or it could be. What piece of advice would you give yourself just five years back? And Jeff, I'm going to ask you the same question to get it, get it ready? 

01:23:03 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
You know that's a tough one, man, that's a tough one. Um, I have to. I have to think about that, Jeff. You know, give me a couple of seconds to think about it, Cause I've had some fun experiences as a sports batter. 

01:23:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So All right, Jeff Benson, you're up and we'll come back to JJ. 

01:23:28 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
Um, yeah, I would say you know, for me, you know there's so many tools and resources out there that can help make you a better, better. Obviously, as somebody behind the counter, you know I've learned a ton about the industry. I would say, you know bankroll management is something that's hugely important, um, but I would say probably the most important thing is finding an odd screen, um, you know whether that's you know that stamp on a beta Don best, uh, spank odds, whatever it may be, um, and having as many outs as possible so that you can price shop, um, and whether you're a recreational better or professional better, uh, ultimately, if you're able to get the best number, um, you know, to JJ's point, reduce that hold, lower that VIG, that you know the sports books charging, that that ultimately is going to make you a more profitable, better, and you're going to be able to place more plus EV wagers over the course of your sports betting time. 

01:24:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Cool. I agree JJ, anything else If not. 

01:24:30 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
Yeah, I mean, I just wish I hadn't been on Tom Brady's as much as I have been this year. But other than that, you know, I've been kind of been the way I've been doing it the last 13 years. Just don't plan on doing anything. 

01:24:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I wouldn't change anything. 

01:24:43 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
It's been a thrill man. I love this thing so much man, the highs and lows, as sick as it sounds. I want to change it for the world. So, um, I learned from my mistakes. I tried to anyway and uh, I'll just go from there. 

01:24:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So you think you're in the green or red lifetime, lifetime betting, including when you're all right right, 100 red, 100 red. 

01:25:00 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I had some dark times. Um, you know, I mean this year I'm in the red um 100 in the red. Uh, last two years before I was actually in the green, not by much, but you know, for being like, you know, only up like I've been a hundred dollars, about a hundred dollars to about five hundred dollars are my plays, um, so I mean being even, just, you know, up like 1500 bucks on a yearly basis. That that's a big, big, big, big win for me, especially how many bets I put out throughout the year. It's crazy when I go back through my wagers screens and see how much money I call it the cloud I've had all these bets, like you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars I'm like God damn you know I can't believe I came out in the green. 

01:25:37
That's crazy, um, even if it's only like 1400 bucks or whatever. 

01:25:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
but you know before that a lot of red and you know again it is. It's jj gruden. You can follow him on twitter at taking the point five. You can check out his tiktok taking the points as well. Jeff benson on twitter at jeffrey benson 12. He's a sportsbook operations manager at circus sports las vegas. Gentlemen, thank you very much for the time today. I know we didn't resolve much. I very much look forward to je Jeff continuing to comment on JJ's tweets. Jj quote tweeting him saying this guy has an obsession with me. Cannot wait for that over the holidays. Thanks very much for joining us guys on circles off. 

01:26:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And JJ, if you ever go to, if you ever go to Vegas, you gotta, you gotta hit up Jeff and bug him for some some three rooms at circaca 100%, I got you. 

01:26:32 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I appreciate it. I need to take my wife somewhere for all the shit I've been putting her through the last couple of years being on Twitter and TikTok. Put her up in a nice room. 

01:26:39 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
She can go to stadiums, swim you can take her to fairies and Legacy Club. We'll give you the whole experience. 

01:26:45 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I appreciate it, I appreciate it. 

01:26:49 - Jeff Benson (Guest)
I appreciate it. I'll take that and put all the money on the trap lines. 

01:26:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thank you both we appreciate the time. 

01:26:53 - JJ Gruden (Guest)
I appreciate y'all. Thank you, thank you. 

01:27:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thanks, guys. Before we sign off here, one of my favorite shows that we produce here at the Hammer Betting Network is 90 Degrees with host Kevin Davis. We had been asked if we could turn that into video form and we have done so. So as of Monday this week, you can now watch 90 degrees right here on the circles off YouTube channel. There was a really good interview with the New York based sports better this week, named Zach pitcher. 

01:27:20
Lots of interesting topics betting teasers, betting pleasers, producing power rankings. There's a lot of good stuff in there. Check out that episode you haven't already. We'll drop the link in the description and be sure to like and subscribe to any of the content that you enjoy, including this show. Like it right now, seriously like it right now. Next week we have another guest in studio. It's gonna be Plus EV Analytics. This is gonna be a good time to discuss some advanced topics with a math nerd plus EV analytics. If you have any questions or topics that you want to see us touch on next week, even if they're more advanced, comment down below or, if you're listening in podcast form, reach out to at circles off on Twitter and we will try to cover as many as we can. This has been circles off episode number 79 here on the hammer betting network powered by pinnacle sports book.