00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. My co-host, johnny, has aged 20 years overnight. We'll find out about that. Also, we're going to answer some questions about some advanced mathematical principles. This will be a little bit heavier this week and we go into some Twitter fights from the week as well, which are always interesting. Let's get started here on Circles Off, presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. Welcome to Circles Off here on the Hammerbetting Network, episode number 80. Number 80. You have any idea of a number 80? I didn't even prepare for this. 

00:34 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I should have, you should have. Oh boy, that was the first thing I should have looked at oh 80. 

00:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Was McGilney 80? No, he was not, but there was a Leaf legend that was. I'll call him a legend in that he was the guy that was brought up in every single trade scenario, for, like you know, I used to listen to a lot of leafs call in radio after games. It's like, ah, we should trade this guy for sydney crosby or whatever. It was nick antropov, yeah, oh, is he 80. 80 um. 80 is like the most popular football, like great wide receiver number. Jerry Rice wore 80. Chris Carter, rod Smith, isaac Bruce, steve Largent, andre Johnson. 

01:18 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I cannot compete with this. I am being blown out of the studio. Yes, and we are just underway. 

01:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Some of you watching might say this doesn't look like Johnny from BetStamp. It's not Johnny from BetStamp. This week Johnny's on some business and I'm joined by Matt Bockhalter at PlusEV Analytics on Twitter, somehow like the most hated guy on the nicest guy in real life is the most hated guy on Twitter, somehow, you know people are angry these days. 

01:46 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I don't know what it is that the football season is almost over. You'd think all of these wonderful genius bettors would be just so rolling in money that they would just be blissed out, but the level of anger and vitriol on Twitter is just at an all time high these days, for some reason. 

02:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So what I particularly noticed is that, by the way, I used to get all sorts I still get all sorts of hate on Twitter. In all likelihood, I just don't see it anymore because my you know my move and I highly suggest this for anyone who finds Twitter to be a toxic place get a negative comment, just mute that person. Literally mute them. Don't block them. Mute them because that way they're still typing into like the abyss. They don't get the satisfaction exactly, but they're wasting their own time trying to troll you and you just never see it, it's, it's great. 

02:34 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I can't do that. I'm too curious about what people are saying that I, I have to see it, no matter what it is. 

02:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You respond to everything, like even people rip you, and you come right back in and you'd like defend yourself. Kind of pick your spots. 

02:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
You can't respond to everything, but you just keep them. 

02:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Keep them on their toes a little bit yes, well, uh, to each their own um circles off is brought to you by pinnacle sportsbook. Pinnacle, the world's sharpest sportsbook, now available in ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in Ontario. Please play responsibly. Not available to bettors in the US. We're going to talk about Pinnacle a little bit later because we're going to do a little bit of a Q&A. We do like to do these types of episodes where we open it up to our listeners. We go through past YouTube comments types of episodes where we open it up to our listeners. We go through past youtube comments. We go through our twitter comments and, because we have you in studio, matt, we're gonna answer some more advanced questions today that me and johnny typically don't go over, uh, and we'll do some like non-advanced stuff as well, and and keep it light, don't want this to just be like a two-hour math course. 

03:39 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Basically, oh, that sounds great, but this is probably not time or the place for that. 

03:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean we could do like a full math-based episode. 

03:47 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Get the whiteboard out. Let's do it, yeah the whiteboard. 

03:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The whiteboard, yeah, we could do that. I mean, my goal is to get more than five viewers per episode. Oh, okay, Forget it then. My goal is to get more than five viewers per episode. For those of you watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe to the Circles Off YouTube channel and also, if you do enjoy the comment, hit that thumbs up button, smash that like button. It goes a long way in the YouTube algorithm to help us out here. Speaking of Twitter, we had a I mean feud this week. Which one? You gotta be a lot more specific. Okay, let's bend, let's. Ben the Better and Court Sports, I guess for some reason, are doing like a one week. One week long handicapping competition. For those who don't know Ben the Better, very prominent in the Twitter space, no one really knows who he is. Whether he's square or sharp Might be bipolar, no idea. Lost to my tortoise in a betting competition. 

04:54 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
In one of the great gambling Twitter moments of the last few years. 

04:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, there's not a lot going on. During, covid, ben challenged me to a betting competition. I told him he would have to beat my animals in order my first, my tortoise and then my dog if he wanted to take me on, and he lost the one week competition to my tortoise, but that hasn't stopped him from risking 10k. I mean 10k quotations, I don't. I don't know what his financial situation is, but you can probably guess. I mean he was begging for bitcoin for a long time and stuff like that. 

05:28 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
he's posted bank statements that were with, with you know, a dollar 78 cents in his account. You know you to each their own. Yeah, you know you don't judge anyone's finances, but there's a certain amount of trust that you need to have, and this goes for both parties in this so-called transaction where, first of all, 10k is a big bet for a one-week handicapping challenge yes, for two people who you know, there's no reason to believe that they have tons and tons and tons of money. 

05:59
You know, do it for 500 bucks, do it for 1,000 bucks, do it for 100. 

06:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Do it for 20 bucks. 

06:02 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Do it for a thousand bucks. Do it for a hundred for 20 bucks. Do it for for pride. But you know, if you're gonna bet that amount of money with people who have the reputation that that they have, you know she does picks on only fans and right, he, he has had a history of stiffing people in the past and there's really no reason for either of these two individuals to trust each other for $10, let alone 10K. If you're going to do this, use an escrow. 

06:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's exactly what I was going to say. Why do people engage in these competitions online and not escrow? So, for people that don't know, an escrow would simply be. If me and Matt wanted to make bets against each other, we find a neutral third party. We both send our 10K up front to that neutral third party who would hold it and then just pay out the winner, and that seems like the obvious route to go when you're dealing in the Twitter world. But that didn't happen here. They made a 10K bet. Ben wins the competition and goes to twitter saying he hasn't been getting paid, and a lot of private conversations get aired in the public light and, uh, court sports says that I was gonna pay you, ben, but because of this now I'm not paying you, which is straight out of like stiffs 101. 

07:21 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yes, like this is. This is page one of the how to be a stiff playbook. Oh, you, you're, you're, you're bugging me for the money. You know, you know what you're not getting. 

07:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It serves you right um, there is nothing that bothers me more than welching on payments. Nothing because obviously it's very clear that the intent was never to pay this bet out. There looks like there's a way, like she's working around it and that's a pure accusation, but I don't really care because it bothers me so much. You lose a bet, fair and square, pay the money period. You can't get out of it like I hate that can't stand it absolutely. 

07:58 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
And then then it went to a darker place and people are doxing her and you know, none of this stuff is okay. Like, nothing that happened here is okay in any way shape or form. Um, but like, if you're gonna get into this both parties you have to have a brain in what you're doing. Like the only possible thing you can say in her defense is had she won, would he have paid her ten thousand dollars, when he he doesn't? He still owe half of twitter, like five bucks for something he said he would pay I I years ago. 

08:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly don't know, but I I didn't follow this in real time. I only found out about this after the fact. But if I was placing odds on would the winner of this competition get paid the 10k at the end, I would have listed that at like plus 1000 at least I was following this in real time because I wanted to know what was going to happen. 

08:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
There was no way right from the jump that either party party was getting paid. There was no way. And then she made it. She made it honestly, probably worse for herself because I don't know if you guys saw the follow-up, but even aside from that, I was going to pay you. She posted and was like oh, winning day, blah, blah, blah. And this person was like you're cherry-picking winners. Why don't you pay out, ben the better, if you're winning so much? She replied and said I made $40K this week. I had a great week, blah, blah, blah and completely ignored the. Why don't you pay? 

09:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm like, well, if you made 40K, it shouldn't be a problem to pay out the 10K. Oh man, the Twitter drama never really ceases to amaze me. It keeps things interesting. That's for sure it does. There's not a single day that goes by where something doesn't happen in the space on Twitter. 

09:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
If I'm Judge Judy and I'm arbitrating this, I say I'll pay. Pay him 500 bucks, maybe double it to a thousand, for for mental anguish, uh and and and. Go on your way, cause I think each of them were, uh were were at least somewhat at fault in the way this whole thing was set up. 

10:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Why would you do a one week competent Like? Here's the thing. Like who in their right mind? I guess this is how you can tell that that neither is really a long-term winner either. Right, like willing to just bet 10k on a one week competition? Like a sample size of how many games did they end up picking sack? 

10:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
like 20, maybe I don't actually know the number of games. 

10:21 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Let me check, I think they would pick like two or three different variants of the same game, so even more variants. That way they would pick. I forget exactly how they did it, but I remember seeing their bet list and it was like the same bet pretty much two or three times repeated. 

10:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can only shake my head. It's for attention. 

10:39 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Like. This is what it was all about. It's not even beyond the realm of possibility that this was never a real bet. They had agreed in secret that the winner was going to get stiffed and this was going to be a whole drama to get both of them lots of attention. You can never discount that possibility, especially these days. 

10:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree, seems like an attention grab. It's working. We're talking about it, we are, we are talking about it. Uh, by the way, I don't want to promise anything, but ben has been messaging me about a round two against tortellini. 

11:11 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Oh boy, he is ready to try to redeem himself against my tortoise is there going to be, uh, cash considerations here as well, or is it going to be for pride only? Well, I, for 10k. 

11:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean we probably have. We'll probably get a sports book to post odds again. By the way, that was hilarious. For those that don't know, I won't name the sports book that posted odds, but there were odds posted on the first competition and Tortellini got steamed hard Like he got bet up from like minus 130 to minus 170 or something like that. 

11:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Like people had more faith in the tortoise against ben. You know what you should do if. If tortellini wins again. You should win the debt, like in rounders, how the the guy went and bought up all, the, all the debt, teddy kgb, I win the 10k debt, win the debt and then you collect it however you see fit yeah, imagine she paid rob I would donate it to charity, but yeah, yeah, but like to a charity if she like insta paid him some sort of reptile shelter in honor of tortellini, right, that would be the. 

12:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that would be the smart move. Um, yeah, I kind of hope people don't realize, though, how much, how much that took out of me on a daily basis seemed like a lot of work. 

12:19
You had to get the lettuce in the right place and set up the the picks it was a lot of work to get it set up, but I I would like to do it again worth it for content like that. So ben has made like a massive turnaround right in terms of like his actual picks recently. Over the last couple months he's gone from being like pure square to I. I don't know if someone's feeding him the picks or not, or what's right, it could just be random variants but I don't know that i's feeding him the picks or not, or what's right. It could just be random variants, but I don't know that. I want tortellini to to go down. 

12:49 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I have. I've given up trying to guess what's going on with with that guy. First he was losing at a rate that was like beyond random possibilities, and now all of a sudden he started winning and and you know, you, you never know what to believe. What's actually going on there, and I just don't have the mental energy anymore to try and untangle it. 

13:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's good content, though I'll say for him he did a fade ben the better on bet sam for a period of time and it was so good, like it was so hot. It was just all the opposite of his place. He's still doing it, or he stopped, stopped. 

13:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the thing about Ben originally was not only did he lose, he somehow always got the worst possible number on a game, like the market always steamed against him. So there was always that possibility that maybe this was a sharp person that was doing like the opposite. 

13:40 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I think he's been accused of being you in the past, hasn't he Rob? 

13:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh my God please, we need to stop this we. Yes, I have been accused of being bad before. Uh, I'm not been the better. Pretty sure you're not been the better. Um, I'm 100 sure that I've not been. Yeah, you're never 100 sure I am. I am 100 sure, personally, that I've not been the better. 

14:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Anyways, uh, let's get into it we did so, they could make as many plays. It looks like they could make as many plays. It looks like they could make as many plays as they wanted. It was a matter of units at the end of it. 

14:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This reminds me of the Tortellini-Ben competition as well, because the rule was like three to seven plays a day and Ben went up like six units on the first two days. And then what do you do when you're up six units? 

14:25 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
didn't he cheat? Didn't he ask somebody for advice on on strategy? He posted in a forum. 

14:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think looking two plus two, I think, if he posted, I think he did, but I don't know that that's cheating, honestly, there's no rules against it. But what I will say from a pure you're the math guy, so am I, but you're more of a math guy from a pure optimal. But you're more of a math guy From a pure optimal strategy perspective. You're in a competition where you have to pick three to seven games per day. You go up six units in the first two days. What are you going to do in day three, day four, day five? I believe in soccer they call it parking the bus. Exactly, you're going to go with the minimum number of plays, right? That's not what Ben did. He came out firing with a seven bomb on day three, lost back a bunch of the units, like he couldn't even optimize the strategy. 

15:13 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
He wanted the style point. He wanted the second round KO. 

15:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's true, I think he was trying to show up this tortoise. I think he was trying to show up this tortoise, which isn't hard to do. He does a lot of stupid things. This morning I found found him uh on his back, tries to climb out of his tortoise or ben. 

15:31
I found the tortoise on his back. It's actually really sad to see. I flipped him back over immediately, but he's just kind of there and he's helpless. He's like waving is getting old, don't they live like 80 years? He's gonna outlive me, this tortoise. I'm almost certain it'll be close. It's actually probably like a pick them tortellini versus me in life expectancy. It's probably pretty close. No, he's. He's very like. He's very social and interested in things and like when he sees something outside of his tank, he'll like try to start climbing the walls to see what it is and he occasionally just falls over. It's a lot lot of commitment. 

16:04 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
The thing lives 80 years. What do you do? How do you? It's 2070, and this thing is still alive. 

16:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I would not recommend someone get a tortoise for one. It is very relaxing, I'd say, just to watch him and feed him sometimes, but it's a lot of work. You've got to change his big water every day. He's a disaster, you know. You got to feed him every day. His diet is is crazy. It's like different lettuces every week, some fruits. He's got to get like some protein once a month. It's it's all over the place. So that's already a problem. But like I like to travel, I like to go away. You know my next door neighbor will gladly come over a couple of times a day to check on the tortoise and feed him. But like what happens when I want to go away for like three months somewhere? I've got no options with this guy. 

16:53 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
What happens when you're 90 and in a nursing home? And that thing is still there. 

16:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So really, Diana bring my wife Diana brings home this tortoise one day, like 10 years ago, and I'm like what the hell is this? What are you doing? It was an impulse buy this tortoise. She bought a tortoise. It was about the size of like the top of this coffee cup right here, Small coaster size. And I'm like, what are we doing? She's like, yeah, it was the tortoise and whatever was like. 

17:24 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
It's an impulse buy and it's an 80 year commitment. Like forget kanye talking about 18 years, this is 80. 

17:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is your life, and then some then what happened was we moved from downtown toronto to the suburbs and when we were gonna move I'm like I'm not setting up any friggin tortoise apparatus in in this new house, like it ain't happening we donated the tortoise to the local library and he became like a huge hit at the library. Okay, like all these kids would come in and there was like educational classes around him. He had his own like pick section in the tortellini's picks. They were all like you know, franklin books and stuff like that, obviously, right, whatever. 

18:06
Then COVID hit and they couldn't go into the library anymore. Everyone was working from home. So I got a call from the library saying like hey, you need to take Tortellini back. I'm like, what are you talking about? They're like we don't have anyone here that can check in on him every day and feed him and whatever. I shit you not. I went to pick up this tortoise from the library. The guy that handed him over to me was bawling, crying. He's like I'm gonna miss this guy so much and like tears. I'm like it's okay, man, it's just like he's gonna visit him anytime. It's just a tortoise, he's like. He's like, please, like, here's my email, send me pictures, let me know how he's doing. 

18:43
Keep the thing that's what I was thinking afterwards. 

18:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
But I was like I would have even taken the call Would have been like no English, no English. 

18:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But now I'm attached to Tortellini again, Like my wife is always like we need to do something about this tortoise. He takes up way too much space. He's making all sorts of noise. I'm aware, but now I'm the one that's attached. Wow, and also, like he's a, he's a content King. 

19:06 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
He is he's, he's famous. 

19:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He totally need drew more views for his videos than I've done drawn with any video I've ever done. Not surprised. There were more people who tuned in to see a tortoise pick out one of two pieces of lettuce to make a pick on a game someone created a tortoise twitter account like. 

19:30 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
This thing is famous. You should put it right here. Have it be like the mascot of uh circles off. 

19:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I tried to pawn him off on the bet stamp office at one point and that didn't go over well. Nor could people here take care of him. There's no way johnny is going to take care of a tortoise like let's call it out for what it is can't be that hard. A couple of things that let us it's work like it's work. Gotta spritz down the tank every day, make sure it's humid. You know you gotta bathe him. He's gotta have a baths every now and then it's a lot. 

19:58 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I got a fish tank at home and the two of the fish started laying eggs and having babies and the the babies would just every few weeks. They would have 20 babies and the babies would just wake up in the morning and be gone. I realized this morning what was happening that the filter in the fish tank, oh no, I can't hear this. 

20:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You stop, I'm going to throw up. 

20:18 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I turned off the filter, got it. We're still alive. 

20:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now we get a little queasy that mystery is solved. 

20:25 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I I saved some lives today. What have you done today to help the planet? 

20:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I woke up at 11 o'clock splitting headache today. I'm I'm messed up. I got like, uh, I got nerve damage in like the c2 vertebrae of my spinal cord. Yeah, we were gonna golf this summer I know, I know, so like my arm pain is really neck pain. 

20:46
It's stemming from up here. So I'm doing physio, I'm doing acupuncture. Have you ever had dry needling done? Jesus Christ? It's painful, man, it's like acupuncture. But they move the needle around Inside to like why this is supposed to help. Yeah, it's supposed to, but it works out. Now it worked. I'm feeling better, like my arm is getting. I still can't like extend it fully straight, which bothers me, and I wake up with, like this, neck pain and shoots. 

21:15 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
You know I they put the needle in and the needle hurts a lot. 

21:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Needle comes out the needle doesn't hurt on itself. 

21:20 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Needles go in for acupuncture doesn't hurt it wasn't like they swing an aluminum bat in the warmup. Uh, the on deck circle and it it makes the regular bat feel lighter. Oh, your regular pain is nothing compared to these needles we're going to jam into your neck. 

21:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just I need to get myself fixed so I can golf. If I cannot golf this year, I don't know, yeah I I I, you. You're a member at a very nice course. I had to turn you down a couple times this year. I was. You probably thought I was bullshitting you like this guy doesn't want to come out and golf with me. No, my arm is messed up. 

21:51 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I believe you. I'm not sure I believe you about not being ben, but I believe you. Oh my god that's it. 

21:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That that's the cue to move on. I am not ben the better people. I am not. Um, all right, q a. We got bunch of questions. We're not going to get to every single one of them. I'll be completely honest with you. We're picking and choosing here. We do want to get to some more advanced topics. Some of them are just like one word answers, so we're going to skip those. I do appreciate everyone's feedback and we will save some of these Q&As for the next episode. But let's get into it and we'll start here. The short-term sample size tell us more about a team later in the football season than long sample size, which is the more relevant data. Uh data sample season long or most recent three to four games yeah, this is a good one. 

22:41 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
So I forget exactly who it was who asked this question, but thank you whoever it was. It's something that I do a lot of work on. Quote unquote small data how small a sample size is too small? Where do you make the tradeoff between recency, or what some people call form, against kind of a longer sample of season long? I have done some work on this in the past in the context of the NFL and what I found was that when you use what's called an exponential decay model, so every game you go back into the past is another multiplier on how much weight should get applied to that game. So the optimal weight I found is around 0.93. 

23:26
So if you're looking at a team and you want to evaluate how well they've been doing this season or how well they might do next week, you give the most recent game a weight of one. Right, you gave the next most recent game 0.93. Right, the next most recent game 0.93 squared. Next one 0.93, cubed up and so on. Got it squared. Next, 1.93, cubed up, up and so on, got it um up to a max of, I think about seven games. Once you hit seven games, you're far enough back in the in the history, that they all kind of matter the same, whether if next week is game 15, game one through game eight kind of matter the same amount once you get kind of back that that that far, uh, that far. So what that means is if you have 13 games we've had so far in the NFL season, each team has played it's worth about 9.3 games worth of weight. 

24:11
So when you look at the trade-off, what you're doing, you're gradually discovering through each game how good a team is. No one really knows how good any team is in any given year. You're gradually discovering that through each new data point you're getting. But at the same time the thing you're observing is changing throughout time because teams are getting better and they're getting worse and you have injuries and whatnot and those two things kind of trade each other off because you want to look at more recent games. The more something is changing, the more you want to look at more recent games, the more stable it is. You want larger sample size. So it's it's kind of a hard trade off to make and that's what I've found, at least in the context of NFL is the benefit you get from increasing your sample size tends to outweigh the loss in specificity from using kind of game two when it's game 14 next week. 

25:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is a really good question. When it's game 14 next week? This is a really good question. I think it's an inherent challenge with anyone who bets on the NFL is like do I use my season long data? Do I use last three weeks, last four? And I think for me personally, matt, it's very team specific as well. So you mentioned that, like the stability and the data. Right, there are some teams that make a quarterback switch mid-season, so to me, the data prior to that is irrelevant because you're dealing with a new quarterback yeah, and falcons this week, like they're. 

25:34 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
They're starting desmond. What's the guy's name? 

25:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never heard of him, yeah, before. No, he's a rookie quarterback. He's a rookie quarterback coming in for mariotta. 

25:40 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah so, yeah, when you get something like that, like even the, the yeah, exactly 13 games to date aren't going to tell you a heck of a lot about, uh, what's going on. So that's where you get larger variants. You get larger parameter variants, and what I say in these situations, um, is you want to look for bets that are plus money, because the more uncertainty you have about what's going on, um, the more unexpected things might happen. So, if they're pricing, I don't know what's Atlanta this week, do you know? 

26:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Four point underdogs yeah. 

26:10 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
So the chance Atlanta wins by 14 or more covers 13, minus 13 and a half would, I would say, be higher than your average four point underdog covering 13 and a half, agreed. And if the books don't adjust for that, if they just have a conversion chart from you know four and a half to an outline of minus 13 and a half when they go with that, that's where you might be able to pick up some value in looking at kind of those, those tail events, those outliers. 

26:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yep, completely agree with you there. Uh, next question Do you think markets and models will soon become advanced enough to reach true efficiency too quickly to beat? Essentially, with the advancements in machine learning and AI, as well as the speed of injury, slash market info. Do you worry about the long-term viability of sports betting? 

26:57 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I think that's something that will happen in the future. I don't think we're all that close to it yet. I think we probably have a good five, ten years before the computers become good enough at our jobs to be able to replace us. I think it's going to happen with everyone's jobs eventually. Yep, um, but I don't think we're quite there yet. 

27:16
I'm not quite as bullish on artificial intelligence and machine learning, at least in a predictive sports context, than other people might be. I'll give you an example of a model I reviewed in the past that it was a machine learning model based on 100,000 data points and some of the output it was giving didn't really pass the smell test, didn't make intuitive sense. So I went to the guys who built the model and said, hey, do me a favor, let's try this experiment pick one row out of the hundred thousand randomly, any one row, delete it and refit the model on the other 99,999 rows. Right, totally different model, yep, like, came out completely different and and that to me sort of confirmed that that at least the current technology in some of these machine learning applications is really good for a lot of stuff. Like you've seen, probably what's the chat bot called GPT that everyone's talking about. It's great at stuff like that. 

28:16
But when it comes time to do predictive analytics, I think there are still. There's still a ways to go in the technology is my general opinion. Now I'm biased because I don't do a lot of that machine learning stuff, so I have kind of a natural cynicism towards it. I'm sure there are people doing it. I'm sure there are people who are great at it. I'm sure it can be used carefully to to to get some really good insight. But I think a lot of people have this notion of okay, just take a hundred thousand rows of data, dump it into a black box model, the computer is going to figure it out. 

28:49
He's going to figure it out like, that's just not where we are right now um, yeah, I agree with you. 

28:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, that whole like black box type of learning and stuff like that, it's also just like an extreme headache for. 

29:06 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
So you you mentioned that you've done some stuff around this, like troubleshooting this stuff and like trying to figure out why your model arrived at an output it's impossible and if there's a mistake in one of your inputs you'll just say well, that's what the model said, that's the output like there's, just it creates this laziness in in the modelerer. 

29:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that will generally not lead to good outcomes there is something to be said about keeping models simple, 100%, 100%. You can try to account for every single thing. Every added degree of complexity now creates complexity. Troubleshooting then becomes like a major issue. Like you know, I went from just doing like linear regression models for baseball to doing simulations, monte carlo simulations, and now you have to account for everything, starting pit. Well, you always did, but now it's the game is constructed in a different format. You get a price that comes back. That's like completely different than what you expect it to be. Trying to find where, where the model came up with that is. It's just like it takes hours it creates risk. 

30:13 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
The more steps in your process, the more steps that can possibly have errors in them. The more assumptions that are implicit in your model, the more assumptions that could potentially be wrong. Yep, and when you? Complexity just compounds all this, because it makes it so that if something is wrong, it is harder for you to spot it and you know, maybe you don't spot it until you've lost a hundred units in bad bets. Like these are things that that can and do happen. So I talk a lot on Twitter about model risk and about you know that's not just. There's some downside to more technically complex models. There's upside too, like there's a time and a place for everything, but we don't want to confuse elegance with functionality. You can have a really sexy, really great looking model and you can have, you know, a couple of lines in a spreadsheet beside it. There's no style points in this game. Right, you can make the best prediction with the least amount of risk you can, and that's how you win. 

31:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Agreed. Next question has a pretty rough tone to it. I'm not going in order here, by the way, matt, just so you know, but I'm this was asked by probably someone who doesn't like you a whole lot. 

31:24 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Join the club. 

31:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
When will you move on trying to beat a main market? Or is low limit season long EV your entire wheelhouse? So I'll just provide some background. But obviously you're known for a lot of things within the Twitter community and how you specifically bet. You're not known as someone who originates main markets which have a large number, a large amount of liquidity. So I'll let you answer this yourself. 

31:51 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, so there's a lot of stuff going on in this question. No matter how much in bad faith it was asked, I will answer it honestly. So I do a lot of derivative markets, prop markets, futures markets, and they do have lower limits. They're not that low Like I bet a lot of regular season win totals, all regular season win totals before the season, and you can get down, you know two, three thousand at each of a large number of different shops. So we're not talking like $25, you know strikeout props here or anything not talking like $25,. 

32:27
You know strikeout props here or anything. This is not a Mickey Mouse market we're dealing with, but the question still is a legitimate one. Why haven't I ever, or do I ever, plan to originate major markets? And this is something I've asked myself a lot. The main reason I haven't is I don't know how my skills stack up to the rest of the people in the market. You know people, for good reason, are very secretive about their own models and their own process, like I've never seen your NFL model, rob, I've never seen Rufus's golf model. So part of me says if I ever got to look at some of these things, I'd be like, oh, I can beat that in my sleep. And part of me says if I ever got to look at some of these things, I'd be like, oh, I can beat that in my sleep. And part of me says if I ever got to look at them, I'd be like, wow, I could spend 10 years and still not be anywhere close to this. And I really don't know kind of what that bar is to be profitable in a large liquid market and so, with no guarantee that I'll ever be any good at this, the amount of time I would have to put into it to find out is just more free time than I'm willing to spend right now. 

33:26
Now, that being said, I have started working on something for college basketball. You've probably seen me put up my weekly Bayesian 25 power rankings. There is a model underlying that that I've started to tinker with a little bit. It's backtesting okay, not great, you know 51, with a little bit it's it's back testing okay, not great, you know 51 52 against the spread closing lines, which is better than nothing. 

33:50
But I think the biggest weakness in that model right now is it's entirely team level, just uses yeah, you know, line scores and that's it. Um, so someone gets hurt. It's going to give me a prediction that's way off and tear, a terrible prediction, and I'm, you know, I don't know really any of these players and any of these teams, so I'm not probably going to be able to spot it. So what I've started to do is go back and scrape some box score data, scrape some player level data, to at least see if I can come up with a strength rating to say, okay, duke is playing at 85% of full strength, looking at what players are starting versus kind of who their team is is made up of. So that's still a work in progress. 

34:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a lot of. There's a number of ways you can go about it. That's an interesting one. I never thought about doing a strength rating type of thing. We usually, I would just, you know, kind of scrape the stuff. I guess it's the same thing. What I was going to describe is just the same thing different terminology for it. It's a Twitter related question. Why does Steve Fezzik have such a strong hater following when his info on podcasts and how he explains the math can help betters? Steve Fezzik does have a pretty large following on Twitter. I'll give my thoughts on Steve Fezzik, but I will start with you. 

34:59 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Okay, so Steve Fezzik is one of the first people I ever followed when I joined Twitter I think it was like 10 years ago or so like he's someone who even people outside of the space he's a name that people he had won some big football contests before. Right, yeah, that was like small field, stale lines but the same was was that you know better, better to have a claim to fame than no claim to fame at all. 

35:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen it. I mean, it still takes some fundamental like strategy to win a pool like that, even if it's stale lines like I'm sure there's a lot of people in those pools that had no idea what they were doing, so I don't want to dismiss those as like for sure. 

35:35 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
yeah, and he does strike me and a lot of what he says is a reasonably smart guy. Um, I think the issue with him is he sells picks, which is obviously a red flag. He sells picks as part of pregame, which is a double red flag. I don't know if people who are kind of newer to the space know this, but there was a big expose on I think it was Deadspin about 2016 or so, yeah when they went through and actually graded all of pregame's picks and like every tout on there, including Fezzik, was a long-term loser. 

36:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I remember at that time I was tracking Philly Godfather's picks and all the different animals as well, Cause whoever wrote that article I forget his name he had reached out to me about including that in the. I think Ryan Goldberg. I think that was the one. 

36:23 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, yeah, so, so, so, like a lot of people are out there, a lot of people are selling picks, but him especially seems like someone who should and probably does know better, like knows. Either he knows what he's selling is garbage and doesn't care because he just wants the money, or he's somehow tricked himself into thinking there's some value, like when you go to his, his website on pregame oh, here are all the physics hot streaks he's, you know, 30 and 20 in his last 50. 

36:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it's the classic marketing tactic. Right it's the classic marketing like johnny, will always say this right if you market that you're a to know in your last eight games, I can guarantee he's eight and one in his last nine. 

37:03 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
For sure, for sure. And you know people are probably going to call me out on this, because I am involved in selling stuff too, as was I. 

37:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know. 

37:12 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
But the difference is that when I ask people for money for something, I have a bona fide belief and a responsibility, a self-imposed responsibility to give people something of value for the money they're paying. And if you gave me a lie detector test and said hey, matt, do you really believe that what you're selling is worth? You know, the actual value is in the eye of the beholder, but it's worth something, I would say absolutely yes. I think if you gave Fezzik a lie detector test and asked him about the value he's providing selling picks at pregame, I'm not so sure he would say yes. 

37:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree with you. So I think Fezzik's actually a very smart person. I've seen him speak a lot, he does the podcast with Ross Tucker as well, and I think he's intelligent. When it comes to betting, I think he's always going to be dragged in the mud because of the pick selling. Whether or not that's right, that's up to you to decide. 

38:12
The one thing that drives me absolutely bonkers about Fezzik, though, is the tone of the tweets a lot of times where it's just like you're a dummy if you don't do this and like I'm paraphrasing but the whole, oh all of you guys watch this. You know college football game today, or whatever. I was using that time to bet props or whatever and it's like okay, good for you, steve. Like there's guess what. There's people who like watching the games and enjoying the games. Like he makes it seem. 

38:43
Everything to Steve is like matter of fact. If you don't do this, then you're not a real better, and I've learned over the years that there's like what's? I don't want to get in trouble with PETA again I can't say peel One way to peel the potato. There's more than one way to peel the potato, and there's sports. Betters can do anything Like for me, I try to spend as minimal time as I can on certain days because I would rather just enjoy sports, and that doesn't make me less of a bettor than someone who's going to that steve fez, excels picks. Um, I, I care about, like, the tone of you know, everything is just so matter of fact. If you don't do this, then you're this and like I don't agree with that at all I don't either. 

39:39 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
It doesn't personally bother me as much as it bothers you, probably because I've I've been around that type of person probably a lot more than you have in my life. You know, he, he, he and I. At least his former profession is that the same as mine, so there are a lot of people. Was he an actuary? 

39:56
he was okay a long time ago okay um, and, and there are a lot of people who are smart in highly technical fields who can develop that kind of of attitude, and it's, it's, I've I've been around not just him, but people like that um, quite often in my life and I've actually tried to learn from that and I've, I've, I think it's helped me with compassion and, and you know, understanding that not everyone is as hardcore about everything as you have to be, and different people have the right to live their lives however they want. But there is definitely a lot of that attitude, not just with Fezzik, but all over the place Twitter and in real life. 

40:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He tweeted on December 10th. 

40:44
I keep hearing about all these big betting syndicates that simply won't bet any nfl games until sunday so they can bet zillions on profitable nfl size at the highest limits. I simply don't believe it. I think the number of groups that actually play this way is zero. So for me, I know and work with a group that exclusively bets on Sundays NFL period, toronto based betting group so that they can bet not zillions but like they can get a lot down and they don't honestly care a ton about closing line value. They think that the model that they have for betting football is, you know, extremely good and they're willing to risk that at higher limits. So like it's like this matter of fact stuff, it's like now, granted, he says I think the number of groups that do this is zero, but like, look at the ways some of the lines move on sundays right, look at the cleveland browns last week against the cincinnati bengals somebody is waiting for limits to go up to 50k at pinnacle before ripping bets on that talk about all the time on pizza buffet like it's. 

41:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I thought it was just common knowledge that that occurs. Did you get that in real time? Did you pull that out? Did Zach feed you that? 

41:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's good, I'm a pro man, when I do this stuff. 

41:55 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
You've got quite the Google finger. 

41:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've been doing this for a long time. Obviously, I was specifically trying. Oh, here's the one december 3rd, if you were sitting on a couch watching us soccer pre-game and the game, the last 60 minutes, lower your betting power rating 14 points. You should have been betting a zillion plus ev things. It's a saturday morning, full of product. Full of product, like if you were, if you were enjoying the us in the world cup, which happens once every four years. Lower your betting power rating 14. Like. This is the most betting power rating. This is the. 

42:35
This is a such a dumb, arrogant tweet and this is my problem with. I don't follow steve fezik, not because I don't think he's a smart guy or anything, but like a tweet like that makes me so upset. Like, let people do whatever the fuck they want to do. Is it like enjoy a soccer you. You could have been betting a zillion plus ev things. Yeah, you can sure you could have been grinding away a bunch of college football at that time, probably, and finding some off-market prices or whatever, or guess what. You could have lived your life and enjoyed your life and did something that you wanted to do and watched a US soccer game. 

43:09 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Life is short. You might walk out on the street and get hit by a bus this afternoon, you never know. So you have to do things that you enjoy, and if grinding college basketball half times is what you enjoy, then more power to you. But it isn't necessarily what everyone enjoys. It's great to win money, but money is just like a means to an end, right? You have to use that money to do things that you enjoy, otherwise you're just going to be grinding until one day you'll drop dead, and then what's the meaning of a life like that, you know? 

43:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's one of the worst tweets I've ever read. By the way, it's legitimately meaning of a life like that. You know, that's one of the worst tweets I've ever read. By the way it's, it's legitimately one of the worst tweets I've ever read. It's like oh, look at me I'm. I'm committed to my craft. It's like great, you know what I do? I spend like 15 minutes a night firing some you know and I some off market prices and I get a ton of EV and it takes me 15 minutes and then I enjoy the rest of my night. It's a way to do it. I mean, listen, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not if somebody wants to spend every hour of every day finding bets, grinding, prop like to each their own do? 

44:13
it's telling you well, if you don't, if you don't live your life the way I live mine, then you're an idiot and you're not optimizing the value of your time exactly go to hell, where I would argue that he's not optimizing the value of his life. Yeah, by doing that spanky tweets. When I first met plus ev analytics at bet bash 2, I got so excited. I hugged him and lifted him off the ground. Was he as excited to see me? Also, I hope to see all of you at bet bash in august. I will try to make it to Bet Bash in August. I'm pretty sure I'll be there. My sister's getting married in August of next year, so we might have it's going to be dicey for me. 

44:51 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, I am in a similar position. I'm going to try to make it. I have a family trip to Vegas planned for the last week of August. 

45:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That sounds like a big mistake. Steve Fezzik tweets like a big mistake, actually fesic tweets if you're taking your family to vegas. Vegas lower your power rating by 17, by 69 points plus ev. Not only that, yeah, here's the biggest speaking of negative ev we're. 

45:15 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
We're gonna stay at bellagio because that's where the family wants to stay and my daughter loves the fountains and everything and it's great, except that I I could get comped at caesars because I have so many points from betting all these uh nfl futures at caesars. 

45:26
So I'm probably gonna end up passing up a comped room at caesars to stay at bellagio, because that's how much I love my family. Um anyway, what was the question? Again, bet bash? Um yeah, so this would be like a two vegas trip in a three-week period kind of thing which I'm never gonna say no to, but uh but were you as excited to see Spanky when he hugged you and lifted you off the ground? 

45:48
So I wasn't like lift him off the ground. Excited, spanky's a great guy. I didn't know he had that kind of core strength Like I'm. You know I'm not a skinny guy. 

45:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's stronger than he looks. 

45:58 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, he's great, but I will say Bet Bash last year I don't know if you can ever duplicate what how great that was. I'm sure he's going to try, but yeah, it was one of the best experiences of my life. Like getting to, to be there in the same room, as you know, all of these amazing not only great bettors but just cool people and then getting to to be part of the one of the uh seminars and like being able to, to actually be involved in this gathering of people who were the best of the seminars, and like being able to actually be involved in this gathering of people who were the best in the world and what they do. Like it's one of those things always going to be kind of a career accomplishment for me. So, but even aside from that, just the people I've met, people I could still keep in touch with today and definitely look forward. I will do my best to be there again. 

46:46
Spanky I mean the guy's like a cartoon character, right, he is just like he is larger than life and he is just a great guy, great event organizer. I was definitely excited to see him as well. He was one of the people that like, okay, what is this guy gonna be like. I know what he's like on Twitter. Nothing can prepare you for what he's like in real life. Just not enough great things to say about Spanky, about Bet Bash and the whole thing, and I hope to be there again this year. 

47:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Spanky's hilarious. I'll be honest with you. I listen to Be Better, betters, better, betters, be Better Betters. I listen on one and a half times speed and it's still slower than one times speed for any other show that Tony Soprano accent. It is I would highly recommend people check out that podcast as well. Somebody asked him a marry fuck, kill kill question, which was Kelly in Vegas, rob Pizzola and Joey Kanish and he said that he would fuck Kelly because he's you know, she's the female of the group and that's the way you know, he swings. 

48:01
And then he said that he would marry me because he, he like, gets along with me and and, uh, he wouldn't want to marry knish because then he would be stuck living in a basement detroit in detroit for a while. So I messaged spanky and I was like that was hilarious, I was hysterical, I was dying of laughter. And he's like rob, I'm reading word for word I'd love to marry you, I'd love it, you'd make the best roommate. This is the funniest message. Oh, it's true. 

48:28 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I'd marry you too, Rob, for what it's worth. 

48:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean in that group. I think that's the only answer that you could go with. 

48:35 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I don't think Kanisha and I could have a successful marriage after this week. 

48:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Kanish is yeah, he's another guy that's been coming after you. I don't know like it's the. You're both part of the hammer betting network. You guys need to get along I guess, but hey, and if you watched primetime on Thursday nights with Joey Kanish and Andrew Walker. 

48:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Before the Thursday night football games, Joey Kanish did call out Matt. 

49:00 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I didn't watch it, but I did hear that that happened. 

49:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Someone fill me in here. What so? Uh, well, I'll let you explain the tweet that you put out about the exacto prior to. 

49:11 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
So I've got a couple of exact regular season win bets, and one of them that I have is on the raiders to win exactly five games. Yes, and they have won exactly five games to date. Another one I had was on the rams to win exactly three games and they have won three games, or they had won three games up until last thursday. So I was like, all right, two, two bets. One of these things is going to live and one of them's going to die, and, and you know, joey is like I forget exactly what he said. I'm sure you can pull it up in three seconds, but it was was. You know, heard enough about your exact bets. You, all you do is talk about these bets all day long. It's like okay, like I don't know what's going on. Everyone has their own. 

49:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can get it, though I can under, so yours don't particularly bother me. But like there's nothing, for me, that's more nails on the chalkboard than like the, the people posting their fantasy lineups on the week, oh yeah, and talking about, oh, like this guy got hurt, I lost my thing. It's like no, nobody cares, like I. So I can get that from that perspective. 

50:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You know what I'm saying I know what you're saying so he replied how many tweets can you two possibly get out of a couple nfl exacto bets during one season? Because I'm sure this is the world record. 

50:24 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
And he was referring to you and RxGamble, yeah, which I don't want to get into. I think that might have been directed more at her than at me, because she's been tweeting, you know, check marks and X's every game. 

50:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And then, Rob, he says this is like the exacto version of the guy who tells you about his fantasy game. Okay, I actually didn't even read that but it actually and he goes, gonna kill myself if tonight ends in a tie. But then on the show, which you can watch on the Hammer HQ on YouTube or follow us on Twitter at the Hammer Betting Network, the Hammer HQ, he said I'm cheering for a Raiders win tonight because of our friend Plus EV. 

51:05 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
You know what he is entitled to his opinion for a Raiders win tonight because of our friend PlusEV. You know what he is entitled to his opinion. I'm sure if we went through all of his 10 million tweets we could find some equally asinine stuff in there. 

51:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to need to send out like a Hammer Betting Network memo this week and make sure everyone's friends going into the holiday see. This thing's going to fall apart in the next two months because of you tweeting out your season-long future stuff. 

51:26 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Stressful time out there. Maybe it's the holidays, maybe it's people are not doing well in their NFL bets this year. I don't know. Maybe it's the weather. Maybe it's living in a basement in Detroit, I don't know. 

51:37 - Zack Phillips (Other)
People are just extra jumpy these days it's because his uh south alabama jaguars future fell off a cliff. 

51:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, tough life, tough life, it's a tough life. Um, all right, uh, another football question. Um, this has come up in previous q and a's as well that myself and johnny didn't answer. So, uh, I could not hit a 20 yard field goal if that's what you're gonna ask you don't strike me as a athletic type, don't mean to offend you, thank you, um, how would you approach first quarter football betting? Can this be beaten by simply generating a derivative from the game odds, or is there a better approach? 

52:18 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
so generally, yes, you'd want to look at a derivative of the game odds. Now there is a bit of an exception when it comes to first quarter betting. There's something that used to be a lot more valuable than it is now, where some coaches would sometimes take the ball if they win the coin toss, and then you could bet on them to score first or win the first quarter or whatever. I think that's almost extinct in the NFL. There might be a couple of coaches in college who do it, but it's not the same as it used to be. I remember uh, it must've been four or five years ago when Arians was coaching Tampa Bay he would take the ball first every time, so that if he wins the toss, he takes it, other team wins they defer. 

52:53
So Tampa gets the ball first, no matter what. Um. That was the height of the uh Jameis Pixton era he threw. I don't know how many interceptions he threw that year, but it was a lot, so he would take the ball first, as expected. I'm betting on Tampa to score first. I'm betting on Tampa to win the first quarter. 

53:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Boom. 

53:13 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Turnover, Turnover. Every single time. 

53:17
I don't know how you can lose money with an angle that good but I did that year Knowing you're going to get the first possession yeah, that's upsetting, and the books did not adjust for it, like when tampa was a three-point favorite, their odds to score first were the same as any other three-point favorite on the board. Um, I'm still shedding a tear at that missed opportunity. That would be upsetting. It was infuriating, um, but yeah so. 

53:40
So, aside from that quirky angle around getting the ball first, I think you're looking at first quarter the same as you're looking at any other derivatives, and I had a tweet thread about this, a couple of. I guess it was a couple weeks ago when Rufus was talking about Unabated and their teaser calculator. There's a couple different ways you can do this. You can build a model to say, okay, how does the first quarter spread correlate, or the first quarter outcome correlate with the game spread and the total, and that's a perfectly fine way of doing it. Another way you can do it that I've gotten a little more fond of recently is finding a sample of games that are sufficiently similar in terms of spread and total to today's game and looking at if you can get a sufficiently large sample of sufficiently similar games. You just count up how often did the favorite cover minus three in the first quarter? The nice thing about that is it doesn't have the same number of assumptions, the same amount of complexity earlier. It's a much simpler approach. 

54:42
And also, if you want to get into things like pricing same game, parlays, pricing correlated parlays if you are modeling that out, you will find that it gets very, very complicated very, very quickly where, if you're doing you know sort of querying approach or sampling approach, you know whether you're counting up how many times they've won the first quarter and they've gone under and the quarterback has thrown an interception, like it's no more complex. To sum up, you know a combination, the number of games that hit a combination of criteria you know, than a single criteria. So the complexity doesn't really scale with the complexity of the thing you're trying to model. So I used to be more of a modeling purist. Where you want to do this right, you build a model. But I'm gradually, as I get into more and more complex stuff same game, parlay, et cetera I'm being turned on to the value of just finding a representative sample of games, as long as it's large enough, and just counting how many times did the thing happen in your sample sample. 

55:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Can you still do that if there's a major rule change in the sport? 

55:49 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
you can. 

55:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It gets a lot trickier because, like you, still might end up with a the same, uh, spread and total. But in one instance the extra point was kicked from the 20 yard line. In one instance the extra points kicked from the 37. Yeah, you Do you treat those as the same? I don't. 

56:05 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
So I actually apply a weighting factor. Okay, I say okay, if you're after, was it 2015? They changed the extra point rule. 

56:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They did that 2015 was extra point and then, I think a couple years prior, was the illegal contact change. 

56:16 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
But yeah, I think the extra point would matter more than pretty much anything else. Yeah, uh, looking at, conditional on a given spread in a given total, what's probably it lands, you know, each possible number, um, so I asked myself the same question. If I just ignore everything pre-2015, my sample size will be smaller. If I include everything, that I'm going to get all kinds of non-representative data. So what I landed on is just keeping everything and upweighting. Apply a 2 or 3x multiplier to the weight I'm giving each game if it was past 2015. Is that the best way of doing it? Like a lot of things in analytics, there is no easy right or wrong answer. 

56:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
True, fair enough, let's get to a few more here. We'll go I don't want to say rapid fire, but we'll try to work through as many of these as quickly as we can. I'm just learning and betting and I usually use pinnacle to determine edges against other books. Is it worth it to open up a pinnacle account? If I do, how do I know if I should be betting into it in quotes that I could beat it? 

57:19 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
so the answer to is it worth opening up a blank account is almost always yes I would go further with saying I agree with you. 

57:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like a lot of people are like, oh, that sportsbook's gonna limit me or whatever. Okay, like you can take advantage of them until that happens for a while, take your money and, honestly, when they do limit you, there's still ways to, even with a limited account, put in a lot of plus ev bets and, in a lot of cases, plus EV parlay stuff like that, where you can still have an advantage over the book. In the case of Pinnacle, they are a low-vig sports book. 

57:53 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
They are a low-vig sports book which matters a lot. It matters for everyone. And the funny thing with Pinnacle is they market themselves. As you know, winners welcome or open to pro bettors, which is wonderful. But I think that the true value, the more widespread value of a book like Pinnacle is really to the rec bettors, because when you are just looking to make a bet on your favorite team, have a sweat, bet for fun. I play blackjack for fun. I play blackjack recreationally. I have no expectation of making money. I know it's minus ev. 

58:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know I do it for you don't have to pretend that you don't count cards and make it plus I don't have the ability to count cards. 

58:30 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
People think counting cards is a math thing. It's not a math thing, it is a mental focus and concentration thing. The math is like four plus one. Yeah, it is the. It is the mental focus that I absolutely do not have. So I don't cards. 

58:41
But what I do do when I play blackjack is I use basic strategy because it's not that hard to learn. It doesn't take away from your enjoyment of the game. But you understand you're going to pay a tax in terms of minus EV, but you want to pay as little tax as possible and that, I think, is how recreational bettors should view sports betting. I have no intention, as a recreational better of you know, making this a career or even being positive over the course of my life at this. I'm doing it for entertainment, I'm doing it for fun and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. 

59:13
But what I would recommend that you do is open up accounts at as many books as you can, including Pinnacle. Use an odd screen like Betstamp and you know, know you'll see, if you open up bet stamp or any of the other odd screens out there, that any given game, any given day, you know, pinnacle is going to be all over the place as the best odds, because they're. They're, I mean the fact that they're a sharp book, um means that a an advantage player would not be able to find as much value in there because their lines are sharp. But if you're just you, you know Joe Sixpack who enjoys betting on the Patriots you know you don't care how sharp the book is, you want to lower the tax you're paying, and I think that is the real kind of hidden value of a book like Pinnacle, not just to pros but to everyone Agreed. 

59:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm a huge proponent of line shopping. I talk about this with Johnny all the time and I think you bring up a great point If you open up BetStamp and you were to just look at the NFL screen for next week and you're trying to find the best price in market on any given side or total, or even props, pinnacles all over the board and people don't realize the amount of money they can save by just taking the best price available or the more money that they can win. 

01:00:25
It's like you know double-edged sword right you win, you win more, you lose, you lose less period, plain and simple. So from that reason, I think it is like a staple. Pinnacle Sportsbook, sponsor of Circles Off, is an absolute staple for every single sports bettor. And on top of that, if you are someone who bets a lot of money and you get tired of getting limited by different sports books and you're sick of that and the Canby books are cutting you off and you're getting referred to Trader for $2.82 and you're getting the spinning wheel. It takes two minutes for them to confirm a bet. Pinnacle doesn't do that, which is beautiful as well. You go in, you know what the limits are of what you're betting, you bet it, you move on with life. So highly, highly recommend having a Pinnacle account in your portfolio of betting accounts. 

01:01:11 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
No nonsense book in a world full of nonsense. 

01:01:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Exactly exactly Do you think books offering early payouts offers in sports like soccer and ice hockey? It would be plus EV to still bet these markets if you were getting a better price somewhere else. 

01:01:28 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
It's a good question. Obviously, it would depend on how much worse of a number you're taking and what the actual early payout offer is. I think some books have. Was it three goals for hockey, 17 points for football, things like that? So I actually haven't modeled this out, but I can tell you how I would do it. If I did, I would look at it as two separate bets. I would look at the original bet that you made and then I would look at them giving you a free bet that pays two to one on your team going up 17 points, three goals, whatever, and lose it. So you'd have to price out that bet. If I'm betting $100 on the Leafs money line, I'm also getting, you know, a 200,. Say, I'm betting Leafs at even money, I'm also getting a $200 payout if the Leafs go up three goals and lose. So if I'm able to somehow price that out, you can actually figure out oh, that was a bad example, wasn't it? 

01:02:24 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Oh boy. 

01:02:25 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
That wasn't even intentional, gosh, it must be like buried in my psyche. 

01:02:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to end this now. I'm out of here. 

01:02:32 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I swear that was not intentional. Lost my train of thought now. Yeah, you price it as two separate bets. Now it's easier said than done, because there's no market in the world that I've ever seen that will lay you a price on a team going up a certain amount of goals and then eventually losing. So that's when you probably have to model out yourself using a Poisson distribution or something. The good thing is you don't have to be super, super precise about that. I think all it takes is a certain, if you get a certain neighborhood, what that feature is worth. Then you can say, okay, well, I'm getting a 1.5% worse line at book X than I could if I bet it at Pinnacle, but I'm also getting this benefit. That is worth. It's only worth 1.2%, then it's not good enough. 

01:03:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A lot of people might not know what a Poisson distribution is, if there's a term that's unknown here for you. I get these questions a lot in Twitter, dms. Google is your friend, let me just put it that way. 

01:03:28 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
P-O-I-S-S-O-N poisson. 

01:03:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's actually way easier than people realize. 

01:03:35 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
A lot of things are easier than people realize. I think that the academic industrial complex does a good job of making things seem more complicated than they actually are. 

01:03:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And honestly, nowadays too, if you're watching on youtube like you can just google a google a concept on you, you can youtube a concept on youtube and you'll probably find a video that's like pretty good explainer of what it is. I'm sure you will if not I'll make one sounds good. Um, can math be used to solve a written script? For example, event one is scripted to obtain outcome B because of reason Y. We would have to assume enough past data exists to build out outcome slash reason ranges. 

01:04:17 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I'm speechless. I don't even know how to begin answering this one. Um, yeah, so so you can. I mean that the whole science of bayesian inference is all about kind of what's how to, how to figure out the, the conditional probability that, for example, the game is scripted right, you know, conditional on on on what you're seeing yeah, um, I could tell you what the conditional probability of a scripted game is. 

01:04:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's zero. 

01:04:45 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
It's zero in North American sports. Yes, there was a time when I was doing a lot of betting on ProLine and they would offer European soccer leagues and you'd see, I don't know if you were in the game time, but some Italian soccer team would go from plus 400 to minus 300 and you can still get plus 350 on on pro line, right? 

01:05:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
but so my uh counter to that would be that I would not refer to that as scripted, I would refer to that as predetermined which I think is very different from scripted what's the difference? 

01:05:20
scripted is literally following um a series of events, in my opinion. So if you were going to say let's, you were going to say an nfl game is scripted. It's scripted so that justin herbert throws a touchdown, throws an interception here, uh, quarterback takes a sack here, so on and so forth. This is my other like stage directions, where it's like herbert faces the crowd. That's my view of a scripted like. When you talk about scripted drives in the nfl, the first you know 10 plays or whatever those are, these are the first 10 plays. I don't think that's what our friend was I don't think talking about I think what he's referring to are predetermined outcomes. 

01:05:57
Yes, where it's, the teams know what the final score has to be, but it could get there in many different ways. Yeah, because the books told them what it has to be Exactly. They got the call from Vegas, of course. Not any other state, just Vegas. Vegas seems to be the only one who cares about the scripted outcomes. Offshore doesn't care, legal books don't care, just Vegas, of course. 

01:06:23 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
They're the ones who know, but this is I mean, this is the person who asked this question is an extreme example of this phenomenon. But there is kind of a cognitive bias where the human brain has to ascribe a reason, a cause and effect for everything. Randomness is such such a hard thing for the human brain to comprehend I guess for evolutionary, biological reasons, but you know, it happens all over the place. Like I used to when I was a kid, my dad would take me to the racetrack for $2 on horse racing and we'd go through the program and figure out who was supposed to win based on all the analysis, and if that horse didn't win, oh you know the fix is in. Or you know something, something like there's a reason for everything. 

01:07:09
And I think a really important thing, a mindset that not enough people have in the world, is that not everything happens for a reason. There is randomness is a natural part of everything that happens in the universe and not everything is predictable. And yeah, sometimes there will be an 80 chance of something happens. 20 of the time it doesn't happen. Like that's just. There's not always a reason for everything, and I think it's philosophically something people have a hard time kind of letting go of the need to explain everything. 

01:07:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, sports talk radio exists because people refuse to believe in randomness, of course, and variance, because I could do a post-game show for any North American sports team, any sports team in the nation, like in the world really, and just be like, well played, really well today and just got unlucky. Catch everyone tomorrow. 

01:08:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's it. We're recording this. On Tuesday, what December 13th, 13th? There's a Leafs game against the Ducks tonight. The Leafs are minus 439 against the Ducks. I do a post-game Leafs show. 

01:08:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah. 

01:08:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
What do you think will happen if the Leafs lose to the Ducks? 

01:08:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's going to be the sky. The Leafs lose to the Ducks. Oh, it's going to be the sky. The world is burning down Heads on a pike. Leafs need to trade someone Coach needs to get fired. And you could just say like what do you think happens if the Leafs outshoot Anaheim 50-20 and lose 3-2? People call in and it's you know. They can't just accept the fact that team played well. 

01:08:43 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
No one can do that in in the sports industry. By the way, I don't think those huge nhl favorites and I'm just going from memory I don't think they have a great track record. They typically don't don't so they typically don't. I guess this will air after the game, but uh yeah we'll see the next 500, uh minus 500, favorite in the nhl. Do with that as you will do with that, as you will. 

01:09:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Um, let's end it with this one. If someone isn't brilliant with math or programming like you, I'm not brilliant with math or programming okay, you said it, not me. Go on yet. They do a ton of legwork and are ready when markets open. Do they stand a chance? Long term, can being decent at reading the market ready, ready for open and having multiple outs be enough? 

01:09:30 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I can give you my opinion and then maybe I'll throw it back to you, rob, because reading the market is something that I see the value of. A lot of people are really good at it. I'm not one of them. It's just not a skill that I have all that great in my arsenal. I think you're probably a lot better at it than. 

01:09:43
I am. My gut would say yes to a point. With those things you can probably, through market reading, steam chasing, line shopping, throw bonuses into that. I think there are enough opportunities for someone to have a somewhat profitable hobby. Yep, probably not necessarily make a living at it, because these things just you know, you do them and eventually you'll get limited or the bonuses will run out or like there just isn't. You can't make money over the next 20 years necessarily doing that would be my opinion. Now, of course, the market reading itself. If you're someone like Spanky and you do that kind of to an extreme degree, I mean if you're the best in the world at pretty much anything, you can make good money at it. But for someone who's just kind of starting out, and if I am not so much into the math side of things but I understand a bit of what's going on, can I make money at it? My sense would be yes, but not a heck of a lot. What do you think? 

01:10:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that you can, but you can't scale. And that becomes the inherent challenge is like, if you're comfortable with just winning a certain amount of money and like not ever really being able to grow that on an annual basis, then for sure you can do that. I know people who exclusively bet openers. Now there is some technology involved as well, because there are a lot of people who are looking to exclusively bet openers now and unless you want to be at your computer every day hitting refresh every 30 seconds, you might want to have someone build out something for you where you get an alert when lines are now open. So that's involves programming, involves tech, but overall you can have a lot of success that way in determining where you think the market will go and betting early. 

01:11:31
The problem is you're just limited in your bet size and you you'll never be able to scale that way. So to each their own. If. If you're comfortable with that and you're, you're fine making a small amount of money, more power for you, that's for you. Like 100 betting is different for everyone. Whatever works for you works for you not everyone's trying to be the next. 

01:11:51 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Uh, rob pazola, there's only one, rob pazola. 

01:11:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's only. There's actually two, my father's named rob pazola. 

01:11:57 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Well, there you go. He goes by the real deal, Rob. 

01:12:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Gazzola, that's what he you should have him on. 

01:12:04 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
That would be a good. 

01:12:07 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Maybe it would. I met him. He introduced himself to me as the real deal. 

01:12:12 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
A lot of older Italian guys. 

01:12:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, that's a self-anointed. 

01:12:16 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Nick Ma. Older Italian guys make great interviews. I think I'll throw a plug in there for one of my favorites, the Banfield Group Always Betting podcast. They have a guy out there they call the Godfather and he's just hilarious. You can't go wrong with older Italian guys. 

01:12:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Banfield Group's content is really good. Now they did that Cross Nation drive. 

01:12:37 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, he's living in Vegas and he's betting football. 

01:12:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I talked to Pisky right before we launched the Hammer, gave us some good ideas. He's a good dude, very good, great content. Three asks from everybody who's watching or listening. Number one whatever platform you're watching on YouTube, smash the like button Spotify, apple Music please rate and review Five stars. All goes a long way for us. Number two ask I mean it might only be two asks One of my favorite shows we produce here at the Hammer. It's called 90 Degrees with Kevin Davis. Kevin Davis, I met at Bet Bash and then Bet Bash 2. The guy is a gem. 

01:13:20 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
By the way, it's not called 90 Degrees because it's by squares for squares. 

01:13:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I never thought it was 90 degrees, because he's given you the right angles. The right angles Could go either way. 90 degrees is a very popular boy band. When I was growing up I was very reluctant to call the show 90 degrees 98 degrees. 

01:13:37
You're eight degrees short. If you haven't checked out Kevin's show yet 90 Degrees you can find it on all streaming platforms, but you can find it on YouTube now under the Circles Off channel, so check it out. This week's episode, again, was very good. He was joined by a former host at Mandalay Bay, covered a wide variety of topics. Highly recommend you check it out and please support Kevin because he does great work. 

01:14:01
Number three in the comments, we do like to hear from you guys in terms of structuring the shows going forwards. So what would you like to see going forwards? We do a lot of Q and A's. We do a lot of guests. We do some episodes where we cover topics in specific. What are your favorite types of episodes on Circles Off? We do value the feedback, so if you could drop it in the comments your favorite type of episode we'll try to do a little bit more of that going forwards. Whatever it may be tweets that trigger us segments, whatever it is that we do on the Circles Off channel right now that you really, really enjoy. Let us know what it is. Wait, before we go. 

01:14:35 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
I'm hearing Calculus chat. I think Calculus chat is going to have it's got some legs. 

01:14:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Honestly, I'm going it's got some legs, you might. Honestly, I'm gonna feel bad for johnny when the the comments come in. He's like I'm gonna have to hide these comments when they come in and they're like we need more advanced mathematical topics, a little more calculus I gotta have more calculus um rob. 

01:14:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You got roasted in the last episode for saying yashin was a bust. 

01:14:57 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Yeah, so listen oh, I heard that um come on I. 

01:15:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I had this discussion at the lunch table before I came down to record today and the people in the office agreed with me. So in the comments there's some people that agreed with me in the comments. Let's not make it look like there's nothing wrong with having high standards. 

01:15:14 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Okay, hold on. This one is really questionable, though, from Matt, you tell me what you think about this one. I agree. 

01:15:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yashin was a bust from rob p. No, this, this, this. There's been a rob p commenting on these videos. There's a lot of rob p's out there there is someone intentionally framing me. He's done this before. Whoever that is very smart person to to craft, to concoct this type of scheme. That is not not me. 

01:15:41 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
Does he agree with you every time? 

01:15:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, he does agree with me every time he does. 

01:15:47 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, I'm reading some of his other comments here. 

01:15:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're all in agreement. This is someone intentionally scheming. 

01:15:55 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
What's your dad's name again? You know what it's not outside of the realm of possibility. Is it or is it not? 

01:16:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Rob P. 

01:16:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It is Rob P. Now there is another person here, there is other people that agree. Mash uh, he's saying he was a bust, but there's a lot of listen I don't consider that to be an outlandish statement, I think. 

01:16:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think your like performance is relative to your where you were drafted I judge that's fair. 

01:16:23 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
2000s hockey players by one metric and one metric only. And that is how often were they on the pro line props list as the points prop, and Yashin was on there all the time. 

01:16:36 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Fair enough. Yeah, this is the best comment. Yashin isn't remotely even close to a bust. What is Rob talking about? Usually, I'm so in sync with what he says, but this may be his worst take in pod history. 

01:16:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen. People are acting like I came on circles off and said I can build an F1 car from scratch in six months. People are acting like I came on circles off and said that if I played hockey in the 80s I would have scored more goals than Mario Lemieux. Like people, yashin was drafted very high. He did not have the career that warranted that draft position. In my opinion, that's a bust. There's nothing wrong with high standards. 

01:17:18 - Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) (Guest)
There's not. Maybe he was a 30th percentile. He wasn't like a two percentile bust. 30th percentile, he wasn't like a two percentile bus 30th percentile. 

01:17:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He had some very good seasons Overall his career. I can't say it was up there with fellow legend Nick Antropov, Didn't he have injury issues? Yeah, he did. He had all sorts. I think he left the NHL after he had like a 40-goal season. If I recall Yashin, Something like that 40 goal season. If I recall yashin, something like you might still be playing in the khl or something with yager. 

01:17:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He got two assists the other night. 50 years old, my god had to delay his hockey hall of fame induction because of it yeah, well, um, appreciate you joining us in studio, matt. 

01:17:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Everyone out there, go follow matt on twitter at plus ev analytics, uh, or when he goes to vegas with his family at minus ev and absolutely. But uh, check them out. We'll try to incorporate them in some future shows as well for a lot of the advanced topics. Appreciate everyone out there. Remember to subscribe to the circles off youtube channel. This has been episode 80 of circles off, powered by pinnacle sportsbook on the hammer Betting Network. See everyone next week.