00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. I'm back from Myrtle Beach and from the World Putting League. We'll do a recap of that. We're going to talk a little bit about betting on the postseason versus the regular season, the differences between the two and the mistakes that most bettors seem to make and, of course, tweets. That Trigger Us is back this week as well. All that and more. Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off off, episode number 99, right here on the circles off youtube channel, part of the hammer betting network. This is the real episode 99. I'm an idiot and last week I said it was episode 99. It wasn't, it was number 98. So we're not going to do the whole player numbers thing again, as much as everybody loves that. I know that they do. We won't rehash that, but it's rob pazola here, joined by johnny from bet stamp. Johnny, how's it going? 

00:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
very good, rob, you are back from myrtle beach. We had an unbelievable episode where we broke down everything world putting league last week. You actually did it. You went there, and by did it I mean you played in the tournament. Not that you made the cut, but you did the damn thing. How was was? 

01:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it. I had a blast. I told them when I left. I'm like any event in the future I'm here. Obviously it's got to make monetary sense for me. I'm just going to say that out there, because you know I spend days there and whatever. I brought back a little souvenir, which was the ball I played with the World Putting league official ball very different than an actual golf ball. You get used to it over time but it was honestly one of the best experiences of my life. 

01:32
I know some people are going to like they're going to laugh, they're going to sit there and be like this guy saying like playing in a mini golf tournament was the best. I had a couple of days to practice. I took it very seriously. I really really, really badly wanted to make the cut and, moreover, I know that an offshore sports book had matchups between myself, andy Molitor and Jeff Feinberg. I wanted to beat them badly as well. So I did my best. 

01:58
It is hard, man Like it's way harder, and I'm not just saying this because I missed the cut. I didn't play my best. I probably could have done better, but it is. You're at such a fundamental disadvantage when you don't and haven't played these courses before, essentially, and you just can't learn everything in two days. And even then you practice at like 5 pm one day, but your tea time is at 10 41 am and the course plays completely different. Tee time is at 1041 am and the course plays completely different. It's like you're playing something you've never even played before. 

02:30
So I had a blast and I hope that this league really picks up because the people are great and I think it's so conducive to betting, like you guys did the live stream on Hammer HQ, which I watched afterwards, the live watch along, and there's betting options on every hole, total holes and holes in one for different holes, matchups, things like that like. To me, this is extremely, extremely conducive to betting in like a recreational way for fun, where you can, you know, follow along and I don't know. I've spent a lot of time talking about this, but it was, it was great, like it was just so fun. 

03:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I can imagine it was a blast being there, obviously, and we recorded the live stream. We watched along. I will say it has a lot of potential for the betting, but I don't think it's there yet. I think, uh, we need to maybe need a little consulting session with a couple of the execs over at the the world putting league there, because it's great to bet on and it's a lot of fun, but it's hard to actually follow your bets while watching that live stream. It's kind of all over the place and there's no like leaderboard or anything like that. You don't really know where we're going. 

03:40
I truly think it would be a lot better if you were, like, guaranteed that the bet you took was going to be at least at some point televised during the stream. Um, you know, we didn't even really get, if you watch the highlight, me and, uh, you know, another one of the hammer creators, alex moretto. Um, he, we were on the live stream and I had, um, I had taken him for some serious cov and a couple of bets, so I threw him a courtesy bet, which was, like you said, you were going to hit a hole in one on hole one and it was possible and we saw a lot of people were missing. So it was obviously it was an underdog for you to hit the hole in one, I think on one. And you know, I gave Moreto just a regular bet there, courtesy bet, even odds that rob would hit the first putt and you were supposed to tee off. I think it was like 10, 40 something in the morning and here we are sitting, it's like almost close to 11 now. 

04:32
We're like, oh, we just missed it, like there's no way, just it's done. We were trying to check, we were, you know, going through and if you watch the stream you'll see it and then randomly we, we kind of got you halfway through the putt. Yeah, I'm like this is rough. And he hit it. We all went nuts. He did hit the hole in one Catch, the courtesy bet. The chat was electric, but I really do think if you could actually be guaranteed that the bets are going to be televised, that would be a lot better. So something like you know, let's say they're going to follow these three or four groups for the first four or five holes and then they switch over to a new group, new grouping. Then you can have bets on all of those and then you don't have to worry about um. You know you missing your back. There's no leaderboard. It's not like pga, where you can just check the whole matchups and see the shot tracker right. 

05:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I I chatted with with uh, members of the world putting league and and the Pro League Network who helped put on this event, and I think a lot of points you made are valid. So the one about the leaderboard being on the screen. The challenge with that is that you have an unofficial scorer at every hole, so your rules official is basically following you around. You get assigned a rules official at you know when you tee off and they follow you through the whole thing and then they put in the scores at the end of the hole. The problem is if you watch golf on tv, like the pga tour, you can say with 100 certainty that those are the real scores. So when you go to live bet that event, you know that those are the actual scores in real time. Here there's no double check happening or anything like that. So they don't want to have a live leaderboard up all the time just in case something is wrong. And then somebody uses that to go and place a live bet Cause they don't want to be like oh you know, I placed a live bet with this and that, so they do need to figure that out. But I will say, like the budget for this event is very small and I was very impressed with what they were able to accomplish with that. And I was very impressed with what they were able to accomplish with that. Like they condensed it to one day instead of two days so they don't have to pay the you know, the camera crew and the TV trucks and whatever for the two days instead of one and that creates, I think, some inherent challenges. So what you're talking about and I watch back the broadcast afterwards when I'm on the course at 1041, I think I'm the fifth group that's teed off, or the fourth. By the time I get to like the sixth or seventh hole, everybody's on the course all at once. So now you have these, the entire group of people, and you don't have enough cameras to cover every single person. Right, and while I know a lot of people tuned in to see me play and Jeff play and Andy play, there's actually a lot of people tuning into the actual broadcast on worldputtingleaguecom that want to see the actual golfers play. So you got to try to balance it as best as possible. But for what they're working with and considering this is the second televised tournament that they've had I think it's in a good spot. Certainly they can do things to make it bigger and better in the future, but I mean, I was just insanely impressed with the quality of putters. Like it sounds dumb, but you need to know where to putt the ball and you need to execute and it's kind of like a 50-50. 

07:37
And some of these guys like the guy who originally showed me the entire course when I got in there that day he won the tournament. His name is Joey Grabiel and he shot an eight. He shot a 28 in the final round. He shot an eight under, which is like, honestly, if you play that course, you would. It's. It feels almost impossible to shoot a score like that. And he hold in one holes that they they're not even considered holeable holes, which is even more absurd and I really do think that it can blow up Like I'm obsessed with it. But I do think that these guys have enough character that. 

08:18
You saw the guy in the pink pants on the stream, right, rainy. Oh yeah, he won the US Open, the two-day event following friday, saturday. That guy's actually a scratch golfer from houston, texas. I was talking to him the day before he flew out. He shot a 63 like he's a legitimate great golfer and putter and he knows the course. There's just no one that's going to compete with that like as much as I wanted to make a cut or whatever. It's just so hard. And the field this time around, relative to the first event that they had, was just a lot better, frankly, because so many people watch the first event and they want to be on TV. So they actually only had 36 spots for this event and I think they got something like 93 applications and they actually had to pick and choose who was going to play. So there's more demand for it now. 

09:06
But from a betting side, you know even uh, even the offshore bookmaker that that had it up right. Bet online adam burns from bet online. Um reached out who posted and he's just like wow, this got like a ton of handle, ton of handle and like perfect. Yeah, this. This goes to show what can happen, um, if some of the regulated books start catching on bet fred posted, draft kings posted as well, and we're working with pinnacle now, potentially getting odds posted in ontario. And, of course, pinnacle is the world's sharpest sports book and now available to everyone in ontario. Find out what pro bettors have known for decades pin Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in Ontario. Please play responsibly. Not available to those in the US. 

09:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we got to get those odds up on Pinnacle for sure there, because if we can get something like and I don't even care about the full tournament odds because it's more of a futures bet, it's tough to watch but individual hole scores for the stuff that's going to be on tv. Like you know, joey graybeal hole in one, yes, no on hole eight, and then you just make sure so that that's like a feature bet and maybe you put 30 or 40 feature bets and then you just make sure that that one's always going to be televised. So then it'll like, even before he steps up, it'll maybe say on the broadcast joey graybeal, hole eighth is a feature bet, he's going off at this, so it's this likely to make it, let's see if he can come through for the betters. And then you do something like that. Um, I think that's a direct tie-in which is even better than most of the gambling coverage and time across the you know more popular major league sports agreed, I mean it's got to happen and, um, I think it will eventually. 

10:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Another thing that people don't realize right is until you actually walk that course, it's a logistical nightmare to get cameras around there and like have people on their feet moving around Like you're stepping through rocks. 

10:56
you have to cross rocks you have to cross water and so they do have to figure it out with like some stationary cameras and stuff like that. I think some holes just had complete blind spots because I would get up there and I realized there's no cameras around or they couldn't make it over to film. So they do have to do that. But overall I think it was a pretty fun event. I actually loved joining the broadcast afterwards as well. So when my round was done I realized I missed the cut. 

11:23
Second round's underway they asked me to join the actual broadcast of the event with Brian Katrick. Brian Katrick is the host of PGA Radio and my God, like, first of all, the knowledge that this guy must be have been around the mini golf scene and doing this for a long time, cause he knows that he can, he can just see you know a video and know exactly what hole it is, what the player is, whatever doesn't need anything said over 15 years 15 years he, he is a legit pro and like working alongside someone like that was actually amazing. Like this is someone who I have a I have a content background. Like I started in radio but I never took journalism in school you can tell like how, in the moment, this is with this guy understanding everything about the broadcast. 

12:11
So they have like a panic button or some will call it a talk back, but a button you can basically press that mutes you from going out to the broadcast. But everyone in the production truck can hear you, right, and he's just dictating the shots the whole time. It it's like do not commit to this shot. This guy is going to take a minute and a half to figure out where do not commit. We will be stuck here. Do not, do not commit, go here, go there, go there, go there. And like the level of sophistication that guy had was absurd and, um, you know, it was great working alongside someone like that. 

12:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like, just like a pure, like it felt like a professional broadcast, like it really did it looked like it too on the on the actual stream that they posted on the website and then on our stream as well. I loved it. It was a great time. So just to recap, rob you went. Did you miss the cut by? Was it two strokes? 

13:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
three strokes. So there was actually um at 36. You didn't make the cut, you made a playoff um. So there was a two, two person playoff at 36 to make the cut. We did review scores. Jeff feinberg actually did shoot a 37. Jeff feinberg would have made the cut if he didn't Hole. Number 17 is a hole-in-one hole, pure and simple. Like 75% of people are going to hit a hole-in-one. It is the easiest putt on course, but if you miss it you have the same putt over again because the ball comes all the way back down. And he forwarded that instead of a one and he struggled with practicing that all week. If he hit a hole-in-one there, he actually would have made the cut. That was the by. I thought I was gonna beat jeff by probably six strokes that day when I you know, when we first got out there practicing in the morning, he played a great round, but I missed ultimately by three strokes. Uh, and jeff missed by one. Andy molliter missed by, I believe, 18 strokes molliter was not good. 

14:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Johnny, the final first round. I gotta just say this for Johnny Because he didn't end up seeing it the final first round score Andy was like 13 strokes behind the next closest guy. But, this he should have withdrawn. He had to withdraw so that he could score. 

14:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So Andy had one less day. He came in the day before the tournament, right, and this is like it just goes to show. I don't think Andy's necessarily a. I don't think he's a great putter. Sorry, andy, apologies, but like I don't think he's a terrible putter either, he's not just a Buddy, don't say, he's not a terrible putter, he literally played. 

14:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
he was a terrible putter. 

14:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We can say it how it is Very very. 

14:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He was stepping up and just hammering everything down without aiming and without even getting the speed. If that's on a terrible putter, then I don't know what we're saying. 

14:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He does, he has, he had I mean, he had no notes or anything like that. He had no idea where to even aim on all these holes. Like and if you don't know that this is exactly the score you're going to get, like you just have no hope. If you walk off the street and play that course on midday, you're shooting like 10 over on your first time at least Andy shot 18 over or whatever, but like that's what it's going to be. It's just really hard. 

15:14
But you know what the most interesting thing for me and sorry I'm just bouncing all over the place here, but there was other influencers out there, okay, so me, jeff, andy were there and there was, I believe, three others and they set up shop and the bleachers at the fourth hole okay, yeah, we're going nuts with buckets of beers and like literally turned it into like the waste management open. 

15:38
Basically, the reactions to the actual players on tour were such a wide range of like literally one golfer hits, drains a hole in, one turns around and goes and chugs a beer with them at the same time versus other people who get up to the hole and they're like, get these people off the course. 

15:57
This is a disgrace, like I, the reactions were amazing on that hole, like like the high fives, whatever, but they they bet over two and a half hole in ones, I think, on that hole, so they parked themselves there and they were rooting for a hole in ones. I thought it was hilarious, but my God, it was so loud no matter where you were on the course you could hear that hole and, like there was very, very mixed reactions and it turned into a serious talking point after the tournament, like in the clubhouse. There was like debates happening of like should this be allowed? And one guy's like you guys want to grow the sport, this is how we grow the sport, this and that, and then like someone else is like no, this is a disgrace. It was like basically watching shooter mcgavin that's doug from happy gilmore exactly, it was exactly like that the ratings are through the roof. 

16:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're here to play golf, not a rock concert. 

16:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's it was exact. I'm not gonna name names of who because I don't want to put it out there, but it was. It was so funny because there was a reaction from everyone that was out there at some point or another. It was very mixed. It was like a full meeting after the fact about, like, what's gonna going to happen with the, you know, should there be bleachers, should there be fans allowed on the course and whatever. And I thought it was fun, it was a blast. 

17:10 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, so we had talked on our. 

17:13
Oh sorry, Johnny, I was just going to say I was waiting to see if Feinberg made the cut and the first time I realized that that was what was going on was they cut to the camera there and it was Feinberg sitting on the bench with a bucket of beers in his hand in the bucket and I was like, okay, this guy very clearly did not make the cut so Rob me and you had said that, if you because I said I can make the cut and obviously your boy, joey Graybeal, said no chance, this guy's making the cut you went, you missed the cut by three strokes. 

17:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So I think what's only fair is you and I we go out to putting edge the local mini putt course, and if I beat you by three strokes or more then I would have made the cut. We got to have something like that. You agree, let's do it. 

17:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will happily do that, regardless. I will say and we'll do this, I'm going to get it done. I love putting and mini golf in general. This is so much different than we're used to you because you're literally putting on glass like. This is the best way I can put it when, when, the, when the carpet it sounds, so I like I know how lame this sounds, people, I get it, but when the carpet is warm from the sun, you cannot get the ball to stop. It just rolls out and rolls out and roll it's. It's so much different but I will happily do that. I'd love to do that. I love putting edge. It's a little cheap, gimmicky, glow in the dark place or whatever, but if you know the course, you have an edge it's the best we got. 

18:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's the best we got and so if I beat rob by three strokes at cutting edge, then we can infer I may have made the cut. And again, I know it's a different course completely, but that's the best we got right now I would say, like I didn't. 

18:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I would have taken a, a 39 in the morning, like when I showed up to the course I was practicing that morning. If you said, rob, I'll give you a 39 on your scorecard, I was, was taking it, but the way that the round went I didn't really play my best. I lipped out, I think on number two and number four, for holes in one at least a couple of holes in the first five which honestly already had me rattled. So like those are holes where it would have been really nice to get one of those hole in ones If I had gone 1-2, ace-ace. I'm in great, great shape. So I'm already rattled by that. And then I hope Jeff Feinberg listens to this afterwards. But like Jeff was hitting some of the worst putts imaginable and he, like got an ace out of one of them, he got a great bounce and I was getting even more rattled because I wanted to beat him. So I have to take ownership for this. 

19:53
I played one putt left-handed. It was probably the worst putt of the day. I practiced that left-handed all week. That hole through the cave. I had it so down and was just nailing two after two, sometimes hole-in-ones in practice. And then I hit that putt too hard, hit the cave wall, bounced back and that was the worst putt of the day. And it was left-handed and that was the reason I took the two-sided putter as well, so that I unraveled, completely unraveled after that putt because I'm thinking I'm like, oh my god, like I told these guys, this is my edge, to be able to hit left-handed on this hole. I hit the worst t shot of anyone and it just went off the rails, off the rails no good. 

20:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So um great recap on the world putting league. We'll do this. Putting edge we'll update the listeners here. 

20:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know we have another segment for uh for today yes, so I'm noticing a lot and you probably see the same thing, john. We're in playoff season for the nhl and the nba and I can speak from experience because I used to bet playoffs and I used to bet them horribly right, like nba zigzag. Right used to be the big thing until it was like not the big thing anymore because the market just corrected to that nhl. I used to look at a line and be like, oh, these teams closed and Team X was plus 120 last game and now they're plus 140 a game later. Huge value on that side. 

21:25
And I go through gambling Twitter now and I see kind of the same mistakes that I used to personally make If I go back and search old tweets about playoff betting. For sure I've made all these mistakes, but I wanted to just spend five minutes or so just to talk about playoff betting and how it differs from regular season, because it's not the same thing. It's completely different In the format of the games. Obviously, the way that they're officiated home court, home ice, home field series effects, all these things that people need to account for that they don't account for and they just think that, oh, the huge value on this team because this was the line last game and it's the same lineups this game. Well, you have to account for the previous games in a series as well, so if one team is obliterating another, then they're going to be priced accordingly for the next games. You're getting new data points that weren't there from the beginning of the series. 

22:30
But in particular in sports, there is such thing as series effects, and I'm not going to give people like the numbers specifically or whatever, but there are certain situations where one team gets a bump based off of how the series has gone so far, and I'll just throw out something random out there. There's nothing actually to this, but just as an example, a team down to nothing returning home in some sports will get a bump in that third game. And you can be like what's the theory behind this? You might be dealing with small samples, we are dealing with small samples in the playoffs, but from a logical perspective, there's one team that they have a little bit more to play for at that point, like the backs against the wall, and it actually means something in sports. It's not something you can just completely dismiss, so don't forget about that. You know that you look at prices. You can't just compare prices from game to game or like say oh, this is crazy. 

23:33
Devils and rangers, go look at their regular season matchups. The rangers were never favored by this much in a game. It's like, because it's not the regular season, it's different. The players on the team are different, the way the series is unraveling is different. The score in the series matters, you know. 

23:48
Same thing happens with totals. People are like oh, you know, the totals are. They're being adjusted down. I'm playing the over. It's like well, they're being adjusted down in hockey playoffs because as a series goes on, there's less penalty, there's less power plays. Refs tend to swallow the whistle. That's something you can. You can plot over a 20-year sample and you'll notice that as a series goes on, the amount of power plays goes down. That's why the totals go down. 

24:14
So you can't just approach sports like, especially if it's a different type of season. It's the same way that you would never treat the regular season the same as it's the preseason in a sport, because it's different. The games are more meaningful in the regular season, they're more meaningful in the playoffs. There's all sorts of things you have to account for. So don't make that mistake, and I did definitely want to talk about that. I'm not sure if you see the same type of stuff Johnny in the NBA or anything like that. I'm not a huge NBA, better myself but I think people just fall into that trap of like thinking it's the exact same sport and the game is fundamentally different. 

24:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, I got a couple of questions more for for you to be honest here. So you know pre-series, you might be able to infer this is the price for game one. Here's what I think this price will be in. You know game three and four, when this team's now flipped and they're on the road instead of at home. If you were to map out a series pre-series using what you thought would be the same price, do you think that's a way to beat the series market? I know they will change throughout, but that might be the best indicator of what you have. What do you? 

25:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
think there. So here's, I think, a fundamental problem. So I see a lot of people post their series prices right At the beginning. Here's what I think X team is against Y team and they just assume that. Let's just, let's just use Toronto and Tampa Bay in the NHL as an example. Toronto's the home team in the series. Game one, two, five and seven would be played in Toronto. And when people are pricing things out before the series, a lot of people just lump in the exact same win expectancy for all of those games. Leafs are 61% to win game one, two, five, seven, all the home games, and they do the same thing for the other way around. This is going to be their price on the road. That's wrong. That's not the right way to do it. Plain and simple. First and foremost, depending on how that first game goes, it's going to have an impact on the second game's price. So you have, if you're going to simulate that out, you have to time out here, though. 

26:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Time out here, yeah, don't we the? I know that the game will have an impact, like, obviously the game will have an impact, but at that time, is that not the best info that we have? 

26:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
it could be but so here's another example right, home ice in game seven is worth less than home ice in game one, so you would never have like there's going to, even not knowing what happened in the previous games, it's not going to be the same price there. As the series goes on, home ice becomes worth less and less and less in the playoffs and like that that you can account for beforehand, no matter what. But if a team is extremely likely to win the first game and by virtue of winning the first game, they're actually going to be priced higher in the second game, you should be accounting for that at the beginning of the series rather than just assuming that it's going to be the same price all the way throughout yeah, I, I agree with you there. 

27:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And another thing obviously being the difference in home ice between game one and two, given the travel factors for the road team, things like this. But at the same time, I mean, I I do still think there is something to pricing out all the games beforehand and just as long as you're not taking the exact same price for every game, which obviously is a mistake I think you can still try to price out the series based on what you think the games will will be priced at. And obviously the game one spread or money line for NHL, for example, is a massive, massive way to actually look at what the series price is going to be. However, I agree with you, like if you just gave me hey, this is the game one priced and then this is the series price. Those are definitely not the same numbers and also, you can't just derive it from the game one price. There has to be a lot more that goes into it. 

28:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. And really, the second big thing that I see as a major issue amongst debtors in the space is in the playoffs, getting attached to and glued to certain teams. So I'll give you an example. Right, I bet the Winnipeg Jets to beat the Vegas Golden Knights in round one of the playoffs. They won game one. They lost game two. In the process, winnipeg has had a bunch of players that have gotten injured over the course of the series Josh Morrissey, top defenseman, mark Shifley, nikolai Ehlers, who was supposed to be back in the lineup, never came back into the lineup. 

28:41
And it's okay to change your opinion based off of new information. You should actually do this in sports betting. You do not have to stick to your like. Sure, I said Winnipeg was going to win the series. I like them, like I actually thought vegas would win 55 of the time, but I thought there was value on winnipeg. 

29:01
But that changes as the series goes on and you can react to new information and there's like a stubbornness for some reason in the sports betting space where it's okay to to shift that based off of what you've seen. 

29:17
You can watch a couple games in the series and be like ah, you know, I think maybe my pre-series prediction was wrong nba, nhl, whatever and pivot that and don't get stuck or rooted in that outcome. Like you can get off that position. You could bet the opposite side. There's updated, adjusted series prices all the time. React to that new info. That's extremely helpful for you. You know, I see people go down the same path of like I bet this team to win the series and then they bet them like six out of seven games in the series and they just do it out of force of habit because they're stuck on that pre-series prediction. And like that's one of the biggest mistakes you can make in sports betting is not adapting to new, new information or not using new information to your advantage. So that's the second big thing I see in the space yeah, no, I agree, I think. 

30:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So there's two like one game. Sample size is obviously not a lot, but at the same time it's not nothing. So the two extremes are typically wrong there. If someone says like, oh, it's one game, it doesn't matter, it does matter because those teams just played. So now you have a little bit more information, but at the same time this doesn't shift the price of the next game. You know, regardless of the outcome, it could be a 10-0 game and the line is not going to now all of a sudden have a team that was minus 160, that lost 10-0, now be plus 200. 

30:40
It doesn't work like that. But at the same time, one game still is important. Um, you look at, like tampa bay versus the leafs, which you know, game one, toronto got absolutely shelled and game two opened up was, you know, pretty much the exact same price as game one. And what happened? You know, toronto won not not to say that. Um, you should be looking at one game and then making, like, a massive adjustment based on that. But you do need to actually still factor it in because, like, you have the exact two teams that just play each other. 

31:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is, it's going to be a fact so just as an actual real life example, I bet the Dallas Stars in their first round series against Minnesota. Average price of like minus 140 in and around that range. I thought pretty good price. On Dallas Game one, joel Pavelski gets injured. To me a massive, massive injury for the Dallas Stars. I ended up betting the Minnesota Wild game two, three and four. You know it is what it is. It's not about whether I win or lose, but stuff happens over the course of the series and of course the market knows that Pavelski is injured. But I'm taking a stance on it might be worth more than people realize or whatever right. Or I think I'd just bet them in game three and four, not the Marc-Andre Fleury start, but whatever right. Or I think I'd just bet them in game three and four, not the Marc-Andre Fleury start. But regardless that stuff happens. 

31:57
So be adaptable. In sports betting you don't have to be rigid. I think the biggest mistake for people is that they just get rooted in like their, their, their prediction, like people put so much stock into predictions. Right, like this is sports betting. It's about wins and losses and making money. You can't get rooted in stuff Like you have to be open-minded and be willing to admit to yourself at some point. Maybe I mispriced this, maybe I was wrong about this, maybe this injury or whatever has a much bigger impact than people believe it does, whatever. But I think that's just ultimately um something like don't pigeon your whole yourself into. I bet this team pre-series, and now I'm just stuck to that because there's a lot of ways to get out of that or to make money on the other side if the information um presents itself yep, great advice. 

32:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
producer Zach hit it I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you mad. 

33:00 - Tweets That Trigger Us Clip 1  (Caller)
I get peeved. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? It's only a game. 

33:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why do you have to be mad? 

33:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's been a while since we've done a tweets that trigger us segment, fitting that we do one before we reach episode number 100. It's episode number 99. This one comes courtesy of ben carry, who, you might know, has had some appearances on the hammer betting network, ben carry of cap wise, and he embedded a tweet here, uh, of a tiktok video which, uh, I think everyone's gonna have to watch and listen to. This one. 

33:35 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's not his tweet, to clarify, correct. Yes. 

33:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're not ripping Ben. Ben's a good dude, but this one we we let. Let's hit it Zach. 

33:46 - Tweets That Trigger Us Clip 2 (Caller)
There's a reason why baseball is the most profitable sport to bet on. Let me let you in on a secret. The public doesn't understand baseball. No one pays attention to the pitching matchups. The public generally just sees oh, it's a good team versus a bad team. Let me pick this. They don't understand how pitching matchups affect baseball and they also don't understand the bullpen and how the bullpen matches up against opponents and how the bullpen matches up against opponents. But Vegas knows this, but the public doesn't. They mess up the lines. So you can win so much on baseball. Currently I'm 23-9 through my picks on SoBet. 

34:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Unreal the numbers and the money that baseball is bringing in for me. What money is baseball bringing in for her? Who is letting this female bet? How old do we think this, this young woman, is? 

34:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
that that was something else, man, that video is actually something else, so I'm assuming she's old enough to actually that. If she's putting out betting content, I would hope so, but wow, is that just? I mean who you? There's listed pitchers in baseball. It says it right under the bet who the pitching is, and also they play a three game series usually. So you will literally just have to bet for only two days to realize that the pricing is different between games. 

35:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, exactly Like if no one paid attention to what the pitchers were, then the prices would just always be the same for every game between two teams in a series. But they're clearly not on top of that. Like you can't just list off everything that happens in baseball and say, like people don't know how to account for this, oh, they don't know how to account for the pitchers. Again, they don't know how to account for the bullpens against the opponents. It's like, well, I mean, like people do that, they, they literally everyone who's handicapping baseball does that? I, uh, I always wonder with stuff like this. 

35:34
Johnny, if, first of all, if I was like 15 years old I don't know how old this girl is if I was like 15 years old and like my in my lifetime, if tiktok existed at that point I would be putting out these, these kinds videos, just like this. And there would be people that are older than me that would be like obviously this is wrong, or people that bet baseball and be like this is nonsense. But to some other person that's young out there, that has like no exposure to betting, do you think they actually watch this? And like a light bulb goes off in their head and they're like oh you know, maybe the Vegas knows something the public doesn't. Maybe I just need to look at the pictures, like could someone actually take this advice? 

36:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like, do you think it just makes no sense? There's no advice to be had? She's basically saying this people betting this are not factoring in the pictures, but Vegas knows this. So Vegas is factoring this in, meaning, how are you making money off this? Then it just it doesn't make sense. There's no, there's no information in there. Also, what money, bro, is the money that baseball is bringing in for? Her is speaking for itself right now she's bringing a lot of money. 

36:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
23 and 9 man how? 

36:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How are you going to argue with that? I know 23 and 9. Wow, and without even a shred of a doubt, we don't know if it's minus 200s, minus 110s, a couple dogs mixed in, just 23 and 9, straight up. 

37:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For people that don't know, you can go 23 and 9 betting on baseball and still lose money Like this. 23 and nine doesn't mean anything unless you know what the roi or the plus minus is in terms of total units, uh attached to it. But wow man, I, I, one of these comes out like once every couple months. 

37:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That just makes me you know, that one's no good, that one is no good look, zach went on that epic rant last time on that guy he hates. Holy, I was listening to that one back. Well, I don't know if you know though. Zach snapped on that guy. 

37:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That guy now lives in a penthouse $2 million, $2 million penthouse. In the span of like one week he's gone from his. What did he buy? A Jeep, a Rubicon. A Jeep Rubicon uh rubicon and now he's in a penthouse suite in miami two million dollar penthouse suite man. 

37:54 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That guy is on the up and throwing hundred dollar bills off his balcony man yes, hundred dollar. 

37:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Also. Those are the john, the, the. Yeah, yeah, the johnny hundred dollar bills right there, not johnny from betstamp. Uh, gianni, you know who I'm talking about yeah, I mean the greek also. 

38:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, on account of that guy, zach and I no longer have a girlfriend and rob no longer has a wife. 

38:17 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So that also is another thing he pulled up in his rubicon and I'm single anyways, but if I wanted one like I would have had no shot. 

38:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Rubicon two million dollar miami penthouse. Thanks. If you're throwing hundreds out the window, you must be doing something right. 

38:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I didn't even notice it last time, but his video said I made 6.4K from sports betting last two days and then the writing on the screen said actually now up to 8.3 over three days. He put it in like didn't even bother recording another video, bro, just record another video. Oh man, he put it in like didn't even bother recording another video, bro, just recorded the video. Oh, that was great man. Anyways, that epic rant last week on that, on that guy, yeah you hate? 

38:57 - Zack Phillips (Other)
that guy yeah, I do, man, I do hate that. I despise that because, like the thing is, I just don't want other people to see this and be like, oh man, like I'm gonna be living in a two million dollar pen. I was like, no, you're not this, not this kid's lying to you. He's lying about everything that he's doing. And other people are going to be like like what Rob's saying? Do you think people take this? Yeah, they do, johnny. You sent me a video. You were like look at this kid's. And you sent me another tweet and I was like, fuck, obviously don't have this money, bro. And then people are in the comments, are defending him, being like, yeah, he does look at his life, bro, he's you're just jealous. 

39:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm like God, they're like. They're like you're just jealous. If you didn't win that money, how did you get that Rubicon? 

39:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what it's. I I know exactly how you feel, zach. I think like a lot of times the criticisms that I get and this is fair, like I'm not saying it's unfair, but people are, like Rob's, really negative person, right? 

39:57
If you recall, a couple of years ago I tried to start like a positive Rob movement that lasted maybe a month at tops and then I was like no, but I, I cannot help myself when I see stuff like that and people are like why does it, it bother you? I can't really explain it other than just it does like I it it, and I'm sure other people are in the same boat. But there's certain people that just like everything, the. It's the fakeness that really gets to me and I cannot deal with people pretending to be something that they're not. 

40:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That drives, but I nuts. I told you guys, it happens in every single industry. It doesn't just happen in sports. 

40:34
It happens in every single industry. There's a guy, there's going to be guys and girls that do the whole. You want to get a six pack by next Monday. Buy this program and you'll do it and like that's just how it is and that's basically. This dude is like I'm rich from sports betting. Don't stop when you have five winning days in a row, don't? You got to be the best in the gym and then why not? 

40:58
make it six in a row. The kid, he doesn't. He doesn't lose, though. That's. That's the thing about it. 

41:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He hasn't lost. I just don't understand how he has time to do all this I mean, but just join his discord. 

41:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Taylor's picks yeah, yeah, you want to get rich should I do it? 

41:14 - Zack Phillips (Other)
should I use discord? Join his? 

41:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
discord, buy his picks and then you can finally upgrade to that rubicon you wanted yeah, and I'll start stealing all your girls I just exactly yeah, it sees. Oh god, that guy, he does get on my nerves as well so if we can get that kid on the podcast, I would love it. I wouldn't even trip him. I'll honestly be like I just want to get that guy on the pod look, I definitely went a little harsh and like to our listeners. 

41:43 - Zack Phillips (Other)
My bad to that kid. I stand by what I said. 

41:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We'll have to get him on spare at school or in the summer wow, but actually let's get that, let's see if we can get that guy. 

41:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'll see you, we'll try, we'll try through his process and stuff I won't even laugh and I'm not gonna make fun of him like zach can give him a shot I mean, we did try to get out we did try to get simon hunter on the pod before, but uh, unfortunately he saw the youtube thumbnail of uh pro better exposed, or whatever it was, and he wasn't too keen on it. 

42:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So let's try to get him on before we actually send out the thumbnails. Yeah, that might be the pro move this time. 

42:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What else we got here for Tweets at Trigger House Number two. 

42:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, so, speaking of honestly, okay, this tweet comes from DannyK731. What are you? 

42:34 - Zack Phillips (Other)
laughing about. I just realized what we just talked about. 

42:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know it wasn't even intentional. I forgot that this was even in here. Okay, quotes looks like I'm going to lose six figures on Stroud not going number one 60 seconds later. There's a reason sportsbooks don't take large bets on the draft At Rob Pozzola. Could you help me spot the one truth and one lie from this podcast? Hashtag tweets that trigger us. Okay, danny, dm'd me with more specifics on this, because this is more you know. If you saw this, you'd have no idea what it's referring to. This is referring to an episode of the favorites podcast with Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, and we'll play the clip now. 

43:18 - Tweets That Trigger Us Clip 3 (Caller)
Simon, right now, the biggest, the biggest conversation in the draft Bryce Young or CJ Stroud give me your take. We talked about this on our daily show, greendaily. Give me your take on what's happening at the top of the draft board right now with those two players well, chad, looks like I'm about to lose six figures. 

43:38 - Tweets That Trigger Us Clip 1  (Caller)
Uh, by the looks of it, looks like bryce young is the guy. I've talked to a lot of people, a lot of really smart pros. They're just. I think they they're not just following along with what's going on. But two weeks ago Mortensen, who works for ESPN, put out a mock draft where he had Bryce Young going one to Carolina and say we had heard a couple people say that stuff. This was the first really big name on a big platform like ESPN putting that out there. And what did we see the next morning? Bryce Young was, I think, minus 125. And then CJ was plus, say, 150 to be the first pick. 

44:18
Now, fast forward two weeks later. Bryce Young's chat is minus 1,000 to be the first pick overall and CJ isn't even favored anymore to be the second pick. I mean, we just saw Will Levis in another book just moved him to be the favorite to be the second pick. I mean, we just saw will levis and another book just moved him to be the favorite to be the second pick. It's madness. So we talk all the time, chad, this is. There's a reason. Books don't take big money on the draft, right, okay, so in that, clip you can hear. 

44:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean at least, at least simon is willing to admit that he's going to lose six figures on Stroud not going number one. I have not ever heard of somebody, weeks before the draft, being able to get six figures down on the first overall pick. I mean this already sent off like the bullshit Spidey sense radar immediately. But then on top of that, 30 seconds later, he comes full circle and talks about there's a reason that sportsbooks don't let you get down big bets on the draft. So you can't do this in the span of one minute. And I'm sorry this is going to come across as Wait before we, before we bury it. 

45:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I have a defense for mr hunter. Oh, go for it, I want to hear it. 

45:33
Okay, there is a scenario in which this is both true. Okay, this is basically only one scenario here, and this is that somebody either, uh, like you know, maybe a pro group or something had a really big opinion that stroud was not going to go first overall and simon was like stroud's gonna go first overall, and then they crossed the action there. So, just like you know, a friendly bet, no vague, no booking, anything like that. And in that case it is quite possible that simon hunter had 100k on cj stroud to go one overall and that he could also say that sportsbooks don't take big limits to the draft. 

46:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That is the only explanation, very valid. I'll follow that up by saying I've crossed paths with a lot of pro groups in North America worldwide, I would say betting on sports. You probably have as well, johnny. I've never heard of anyone no one that in my circle or people that I deal with have ever dealt with Simon Hunter in any capacity on anything. 

46:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, we don't know that it's not possible. I'm just saying, I'm giving out a contrarian point of view here and I'm saying, in theory, that is possible and these both could be true. Now, do I think that that's true? Probably not, but that's the way it would be done, just for the listeners. 

46:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You are correct, that is absolutely entirely possible. 

47:00
So what Johnny said Also, if somebody came to a pro group three weeks ago and said, hey, I want a hundred K on CJ Stroud to go overall, overall they probably would have took it also, though, like, okay, if you did put 100k on cj stroud going, let's, let's say you were betting this with a sports book or you were going to someone else looking for this type of bet, I would say that this information would very, very likely have leaked into market and Stroud would have been an overwhelming favorite, like Bryce Young is because if somebody is going and looking for $100,000 bets on a quarterback to go first overall, anyone who is going to be booking that, or even like, let's say, cross booking that big free or whatever, is probably going to ask themselves like this, or say to themselves this guy must know something and then just go and bet it somewhere else. Like that's the most likely scenario, is it not, unless and again. 

48:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now here I go full circle again trying to go back. I was defending simon, now I'll be on the other end, unless, of course, he has done this before and lost every time, in which case they're like you know what, this guy's not gonna win, I'll take that, I'll take that bet, and then you go ahead and cross that with him, for god won overall. I'm just saying it's possible. I don't think it's likely. I'm floating out a scenario that way. At least it's known that this could happen in the space also. Another another thing to note is like if you had a VIP, you know sports book, whatever you still wouldn't be able to get that down. That's what I'm trying to say Exactly. And so like 100,000 for a draft can only be done via like either a massive PPH, which probably wouldn't make the case, or like another pro group, but that's it. 

48:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And remember, there's only two ways of pph which probably wouldn't make the case, or like another pro group. But that's it and there's only two ways. This podcast episode's weeks before the draft as well. This is like lower, lower lip. It's very. I can tell you as somebody who tried to get down as much as humanly possible on bryce young. I won't say the exact amount that I did first overall, but it's nowhere close to a hundred thousand and that's leveraging my entire network of people, like my entire network. So I'm gonna call bs on that. 

49:16
If not and this turns out to be real, I think I might need to get simon hunter as a mover for next year's draft because, like, that's amazing that size, if it really is. But I I just don't think that it's. In all likelihood, I don't think that that's uh, that's what went down. And for people who don't know what like the cross booking thing is it like? Just explain it very easily here. But it would be like me going to johnny and saying, johnny, I think cj stroud is going first overall and he would be like no, I don't think it's happening and we're just basically making a bet with one another so that the sports book doesn't take a vague and that's all that we're saying so maybe there is someone out there who just is taking Simon's bets. That that says you know what? And and, by the way, ask yourself why you would take a hundred thousand dollar bet on a quarterback going first overall. Um, and the reason would be that you just you think the other party is not very good at betting, would be the obvious answer. 

50:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We will see. We will see what ended up happening, but yeah, that's probably the only way to do it. I'm not sure. I'm sure it's even a tweets that trigger us but obviously 20 good, good topic. 

50:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It triggered this guy. So and then he DM me and he was like you know, this is where it came from, and I listened and it did trigger me. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie to you, but but simon is like um, he's like the jeep rubicon guy for me, like he's, he's my jeep rubicon guy. I don't care how petty it is. Again, what? What bothers me is when people misrepresent themselves. That's all I'm going to say. I hate that, I hate it, I hate it and we'll leave it at that. So it was a tweet that also triggered me. 

50:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, Well, that's all we have for today. For next week we have a great guest. Episode number 100 is next week. So for those of you, thanks for tuning in, for listening. Please like and subscribe. We appreciate you. See y'all next week you.