00:00 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Outro Music. All right, five o'clock on a Monday. You know what time it is. It's time to hit the books. Part of the Hammer Betting Network, alongside the man, the myth, the legend himself, mr Joey Knish, producer extraordinaire, zach Phillips, I am merely Brad Powers. Before we get to all your comments concerns questions, you name it. Maybe even get a Joey Lib take on today's show with, uh, the presidential stuff, uh, being in the news, it seems like, on a daily basis. Let me remind everybody, though, that hit the books. It's still still maybe not for much longer still brought to you by bet stamp. 

01:18
The easiest way to improve as a sports better is to use multiple sports books and always get the best odds. We recommend using an odds comparison tool like BetStamp. Betstamp compares odds across every sports book for games, futures and player props. You can save time and money by checking BetStamp before you bet. Download the app today. If you're looking to sign up for a new sports book account, please check out the offers available at BetStampapp. Slash hit the books or you can hit the link in the description. If you sign up through this page, it does help support the show, so we're going to support in the show. Make sure you're hitting that like button If you are watching this one live, kanish. What's happening? Man, you're looking dapper, as always. 

01:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Oh, I mean, I see flow in here saying no hat for BP, bp. You know little, little little. Look I got a little, you know BP lettuce going on today. So you know we're, yeah, we're, we're, you know we're keeping it. We're trying to keep it dapper here on. On hit the books. These days, as you said, potential new sponsor coming up, a couple of things Connor Stallions, american hero, coming out. Can't wait to see that, that's the title. 

02:19
Well, I, I, I. It should be. If it's not, I got to. I might email Netflix and say you know this guy belongs in the College Football Hall of Fame, so you got that going. Subs up, trending towards 5K subs Again. The chat is what makes I said it earlier on Twitter it's what makes us great. Got a bunch of active already so we'll try and burn through those and you know, ready to go here on a Monday, Getting closer. 

02:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
About what are we five weeks away yeah, a little less than five weeks away, obviously, you know, from week zero we're what? 33, 30, yeah, 33 days away from week zero. And then you know, keep in mind, on that week one, I mean it really gets going on Thursday night. I mean there's you count, fcs games. There's like 30, 30, some games at night. So that'd be a very busy day to kick it, get it kickstarted. 

03:09
Speaking of getting it kickstarted, it's not beating around the bush here, and I mean the chat is active, to say the least. And I want to say this you had a very nice tweet earlier today about the chat making this show. I want to echo those sentiments and not just retweet. The reason I like doing this show is because of the chat. To be honest with you, it's something different. I do a lot of the same shows, type of shows, whether it's interview shows or I do deep dive shows or just looking at games from a 30-second. Oh, here you go 30 seconds. How do you preview the game? This one's different. I never know what's happening. I know maybe from a viewership it'd be better if we went like oh, here's a top 10, overrated list type stuff. I like it because it's different, and I like that the chat controls everything and the chat's good. So, and the chat sucked, I don't know if we would do a chat show. 

04:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree, that's what I mean it. It's able to drive the show because of the quality of the viewership, the quality of the comments. If you go to like any youtube streamer and look at the chat, it's just like kids blah, blah, blah. There's people typing nonsense all the time. Uh, in here we have, you know, we have people asking real questions. It's informed, it's good, um, and you know interesting stuff. So, hey, it allows, it makes our job easier instead of, as you say, and having to do some you know bits around that we can, uh, we can do a lot of questions and hit and hit what's hot. 

04:29 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, yeah, no, I like it yeah, and I mean I don't have to do like an ask me anything. I mean this is it for each week. So I love it. So kudos to you guys. You guys are a big driver, makes the show. Uh, speaking of that, uh, let's start off with phil suck 565 and the chat he was in a couple hours ago. 

04:47
When, if ever, do you try to middle? For example, you got yukon plus 24 now at 21. Is there a scenario you ever try middling? Yeah, there is usually. 

04:55
If, uh, I I use it as a separate entity, like if I already would make that bet, like if that was the virgin number and I said, yep, that's a bet, then I'll make that bet, so to speak. 

05:06
So I, and no matter what, how much you know clv I have or how much you know line value, I don't middle, just the middle, though I can tell you that, uh, it would have to be a scenario where you know if that was the first line I saw and I would make a bet, then by golly I'll make the bet. So that's kind of how I do it. And you know, if it's a big, if it's like a middle or hedging or scenario, it's always comes down to how much, you know? Did I originally bet? Is it a life changing money? Do I want to, you know, really try for something that you know doesn't have that great of a chance of hitting? All those factors come into it. But mainly if my number says to bet it and to go for a middle and I would already make that bet, then I go for it no, and I'll echo some of your sentiments. 

05:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And then, just on that specific one you mentioned, it would need, like I'll give you an example what number would you need to bet Maryland in that game? Bet back on it just in, where you would show some value 16.5?. 

06:09 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, it's got to get to like 17. I would start. I got 24 and a half. It had to get like 17. Even though my numbers are like 21, 20, 21-ish uh, I need like 17 on that one. Obviously this is deep in the weeds week. One's a little different. I mean, there's more variance. A lot of times I'm just whatever I got I I usually I'm pretty good for the most part when it comes to individual games no, and I would say you agree that don't, just don't. 

06:33 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I would say, take off of, have a great bet in pocket and then, you know, reduce your either your risk or your roi for an okay bet, just because you don't want to lose. 

06:45
I think overall, in most cases you're going to be better letting the plus EV bet that has a 3.4 points CLV ride Again, like you said, if it gets to the side where it's showing some value. On the other side, maybe I'll take 25% off or something. 50% off if I got a big position on one hand and I'll be honest with you, as said in week, especially early weeks of cfb, more variants I'm more of a middle guy in the nfl where I can get some more liquid positions early. The line movement's not going to be, you know, I'll try a three and a half, come back at two, two and a half or some money line or something. That's more of the the market that I'm looking to play more middles into College football. Just don't do it as much unless information changes or there's a big swing or something or I know a move's coming or that type of thing. 

07:33
Otherwise, I think in a lot of cases you end up costing yourself a little return there when you just middle because hey, I got a great position, now I'm opening up this middle. I would say I agree with what you said. Don't do it just to do it. 

07:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I would say nine times out of 10, I don't do it. Maybe it's a little ends up being a little less than that because of information changing and I don't love the original bet as much or, you know, I kind of like the other bet now more, so I not all factors into it. But I would say right now, because I do have a particular game, because I do have a Connecticut ticket, I am not interested in Maryland, not yet, not at all. D Lee 23 in the chat, thoughts on where the line settles for two of the bigger games Week one LSU, usc and Florida Miami. Good question, lots of movement in the Miami game. Basically. 

08:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I was going to ask you your thoughts on Florida, Miami, because I don't know what side blue horseshoe likes anymore. I thought Miami was a run to the window and now he's giving out four and two and a half. 

08:37 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
He doesn't know either. He made a statement and someone corrected him on that statement about six weeks ago. And someone corrected him on that statement about six weeks ago telling him hey, buddy, you don't want Miami minus two bud, or whatever it was at that point. That's not the right side. But now he's seeing the light that Florida's probably the right side. I mean, florida's going to automatically cash, but I don't. The threes will be. If the threes are sitting there on game day, they will be taken out. I don't that one's not closing three. So Miami probably won one, one and a half. I would say maybe Because you get some Florida money line, I'm sure, coming in too. 

09:14 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, totally, I think at this point, if I was and just for myself, that doesn't have a Florida position at the moment I would be looking for probably waiting until game day for a thin Miami money line, if I can get you know. 

09:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I am here Florida, or you want, you want thin Miami money. 

09:32 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
At this point I think the value on Florida for the most part has already been taken out. I would be looking for a little bit more Florida month to come in and then buy Miami at post or something real cheap on the money line, as if if you're not sitting on any you know florida ticket at this point. We got no position. I'd probably rather have miami around to pick um at this point. 

09:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So I think florida wins. So there's my position there. Lsu usc. Yeah, I like florida. All right, uh, I need, I need it. Uh, for that, miami win total. Uh, lsu usc. Uh, I think it's similar. I think sevens probably end up getting taken out. I think it probably closes six, six and a half. What do you think there? 

10:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, there were some sevens for a minute there and they did get taken out. And again, this is summer liquidity center and that. But I agree I think anything you probably have buyers five and a half. You definitely have buyers at seven. Um, you know, depending on if you're in front of the screen or when you're looking at it, you could probably pinch off one side there. But I like USC. I bought a little seven there on the show. I know there's some dissenting opinions. Our friend of the show, me and Franchise, did a little head-to-head on that one. He likes LSU. I'm higher on USC in terms of a team this year probably than the market. Lsu. I'm higher on usc in terms of a team this year probably than the market. Maybe a little lower on lsu. Um, but I it was. It was a need to seven to play it. Will we see it again? 

10:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
not sure I originally bet lsu in that one, but again, that was, you know, spring was still going on at that point. I expected lsu to rectify the defensive line position in the portal post spring. They didn't. So I don't like an lsu position there. I'm actually as far as total. I are line movement. I'm anxious to see where that total goes. Lsu usc. We've already seen, yeah, uh, loose lips, sink ships. We've seen the under come in, um, no, no, probably due to some people talking, uh, when it was only available a couple books. Uh, you might know the two guys talking about it, but uh, I'm anxious to see what happens there. Public's gonna want to bet the over. They're gonna see numbers from last year and I'll be like, yeah, I bet over it's LSU, usc. Are you kidding me? Uh, but I I don't think they're gonna be over teams this year. Speaking, uh, of a little total, did you see they're starting to be a little bit of moves in the market, you know, point here. 

11:45 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah. 

11:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I saw the big speaking of big games week one little under money on Georgia Clemson. I got to be honest with you. I mean traditionally, you think under big game week one. I hope that continues to go under. As far as the total, I don't necessarily agree with that. What say you? 

12:04 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, that's what I know, what I that's, when we, uh we even discussed a little bit of both of us kind of lean into to the other way there. But I did see it did shave down a bit, um and yeah 45 and a half. 

12:16 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Let's get that boy. That's uh buy price for me probably 43 and a half. Uh, we'll see. You're going to get that traditional handicapping 101 big game. When you look at the nature of both programs historically they're going to want to go under and I already hear you know the people talking about the matchup in week one a couple years ago was 10 to three. These aren't the same type of team. So I think I'll be looking at the over there, but we'll see. I'm waiting on that one. Rwfan23 in the chat Thoughts on Georgia State. This year, over or under Boy, a lot of turnover Coach hired very late in the process. I like the coaching hire, like the staff he put together there. He comes over from Georgia there so he's familiar with the layout of what it takes to recruit at Georgia State, interesting some portal additions there, even at quarterback. I thought the market did a pretty good job of pricing a lot of that in. If I had to bet it now, I'd bet under four and a half though. 

13:13 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I tend to lean that way as well. I just think pretty bullish on a lot of the Sun Belt this year and they seem to kind of be on the you know the lower end of it. 

13:24
Now they do have some I'm not going to call these, you know winnable game. But you know, at Vanderbilt at home going to UConn, like basically outside of the conference, they've got a shot at a couple of these games. They got an FCS team coming in Chattanooga even, you know, at Georgia Tech, like it wouldn't be the most shocking team in the world. 

13:44
So they've got some opportunities outside of the Sun Belt to nip a game or two, and then can you win two or three games in conference. Maybe I agree with you. I think the number's okay there. It's not really wanting me to take a big dip either way. They'd probably be a team more I'd be looking to buy on next year, if things go right, as we say, with the hire and they get some more portal in this year. Though, uh, four and a half seems okay. 

14:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Probably nothing for me there I am not better yet though, even though I lean under, I have not gotten the window and keep in mind I've gotten a window on about 100 different teams, so I just not one that I'm overly interested in. Normally I would. I would liked the under, but I was hoping it would come like 5.5, but I think the market's pretty on top of that one. I did bet him A bet that I made. I bet him against Georgia Tech in week one. I don't like Georgia Tech coming off of the Ireland trip with no extra, not like they got a couple extra days rest, like Florida State does. I don't like that after that long trip. You're going to probably empty the tank against Florida State and try to win that game, and I like the uncertainty at Georgia State. So I do like Georgia State in that game. That's a bet that I made. 

14:58 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
If you've got some lighter-juiced just a market bet that some of the more serious places are more heavily juiced on the four and a half. So if you've got a four and a half, that you know maybe it's minus 130 or something around that, you know give or take 10 cents. I think you're making a decent bet, just based off where the line even take my opinion out of it where the line is at a couple of the places that take more money. So that would just be a note there, if you've got that opportunity. 

15:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
This business isn't that complicated, especially as this wind total market matures as we get closer to August. Take a look at the bigger books like a circa, where are they shaded towards? Shop the 10, 12 books that have it up. If you're looking to make a position, that's all it takes. Folks Just shop Professional shoppers, not gamblers. Charles Saul in the that have it up, go for. If you're looking to make a position, that's all it takes. Folks just shop professional shoppers, not gamblers. Uh, charles saul in the chat, he's gonna be a wow game day, week zero in dublin. That's a nice trip. I think my signs are gonna be we want knish on the dog walks. That's funny. Uh boy, did you see that I am not a herbie guy? I, I, everyone gets on me because I I don't like herbie at all uh, I don't, it's. 

16:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I've never. I've never met anybody that's done dog content, that got old. Like dog content I can usually eat up, for you know, I could be on tiktok. I love dog content but like it's, it's gotten a bit far with the bell. Like they're like god, that dog probably wants to be in its yard. You know, like eating a bone or something, you're trying taking it, you know, halfway around the country here on private jet. So, uh, yeah, yeah I just he seems like a. 

16:35 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I don't know him personally, he just seems fake as fuck. To be honest with you, and that's not just this bed in the dog walks thing, I'm just telling you. I've been following that guy for a while, man, he just reminds me of people I grew up with in Ohio, to say the least, the reason why I do not like Ohio. I love Ohio State. I don't like Ohio people. Sorry to everyone back home, that includes, you know, keep in mind, my family, my entire family and friends back in Ohio. 

17:06
That or watch, hit, watch, uh, hit the book, sign, uh, looking to. Yeah, we got off track. Sorry, I'm looking to lock in under 55 and a half for that game, or should I wait? That's interesting. Uh, I think the under will eventually get play there. Your guys, like blue horse, you are going to want to bet the under grass field. They always like weeks, I think week zeros. There's this uh small and not a big, uh sample size trend, I think, of the games going under. So I, if you, if I had to guess, I think under money I'll come in I didn't bet it though I, I would, yeah, I was gonna say, not an under. 

17:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I actually you know what that at the original virgin numbers, we'll call them uh, kind of leaning towards the over there. It got you know, at some of the this was even uh months got better than it it's got. 

17:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, three points. 

17:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I, I, I. That's what I thought. I think it was 52 and a half at first. 52 and a half I'm looking, so yeah, now I think the only way you'd see that trend is to come back down, um, to, you know, like a 54-ish or something like that. 

18:07
I agree, I think you'll get people that just are going to get that week one grass field international travel, kind of all the checkboxes that can sell people to and under. But I agree, not totally for me in terms of where I won't be looking to take an under position. If it steamed back down enough I could play some over. 

18:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think, generally speaking, georgia Tech's an over team this year. I like their offensive personnel. I love their offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, I think his name is. I think he's a young, bright mind in college football. I hate their defensive personnel. 

18:45
I just watched her spring game and when the first team offense crushes the first team defense, the second team offense crushes the second team defense, the walk on offense is crushing the walk on defense. I mean it was. I just watched that. I was like, wow, they got nothing, david, and they were kind of an over team. Obviously, even last year, david, in the chat, would you guys ever consider cash out on a bet that got massive CLV? For example, I got massive CLV on the LSU game under being offered a 0.2 unit profit. I think typically and you can talk to it because you're more familiar with we don't have fan doing draft kings with cash outs here in nevada, but I don't trust the book to pay me out, uh, theoretically, uh, the correct, what the payout should be. I I just feel like you're you already paid the juice on the original bet and I'm sure there's some juice involved on the cash out. Does that make sense? 

19:41 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, uh, david, I would say almost, especially on a line like that, like an underline, like a straight, a minus one to whatever you're paying on a spread or a total. I don't think I've, unless here I'll say it this way unless I got some information that it was going to move back the wrong way, or the against me there'd be. 

20:04
There's rarely scenario same thing as in like a futures market. I'll give you an example of like you have. You have a quarterback, you know you're, you're six weeks in, you've gained a lot of positive equity. You either get word it's torn or acl, or the news hits and you run right to the app and you can't try and cash it out before they pull the prices. Those are almost exclusively the only scenarios where I've ever cashed. I know publicly, like everybody on twitter, like you, you know the sgp, you do three. You know you hit two legs out of eight and people like should I cash it out? No, yeah. So on those straight bets I would almost say exclusively no, except for those one-off scenarios where you might have a, you know, an information change that makes the cash out a nice option for you. 

20:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, injury type thing. I would say, like weather wise, like everyone's been betting it all week, oh, the weather's going to be bad, the weather's going to be bad. Maybe you bet it at the open. It's moved 10 points and then you're getting whispers like, hey, the weather's not going to be that bad. And you're, and you know, obviously on game day sometimes you see four or five point moves back the other way. That might be another time. Yeah, where you take advantage of that. If it's a low at the lowest available number, uh, for the entire week or whatever, and you know the information is going to change and get out in front of it. Then I would so. Good answer by you, as always Charles, in the chat. 

21:26
Thoughts on Akron plus 15 and a half against the buck. Guys worth it Pre-flop or just wait until it's 14, nothing. First quarter. Bama minus 31,. Any worth playing soon. No rush at current market numbers. I'm not in a rush to bet either. I would. I can't, I'm not built to lay 50 and a half. I'm just put. Tell you that way. I will say that I want Akron, but I do have some worry the Buckeyes. Will the quarterback situation be settled? If it's not, I don't like that because if every quarter, if there's three quarterbacks coming in there and they all want to impress, I don't like that at all. If they're all going to run the offense, that's not good there. You know what that? Just I got that bit of like that at all. 

22:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
If they're all going to run the offense. That's not good. You know what? Just I got that like. That's one where I was really especially when the numbers first came out. I was like you know what I think I'm going to take over. Never got, just couldn't talk myself into some of the scenarios at play of Ohio State Ryan Day. Everything on the line this season ton of talent, as you said, multiple quarterbacks that probably get a look, even if they're not the number one I just, and Chip, like I think they'll want to run it up in if they can in this one, and I don't see any way Akron moves the football. So you'll probably get a scenario at some point where it's 28, nothing, 35, nothing, and maybe get a little bit better price in this one. 

22:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, yeah, I Then you get a better feel, for you know how they're operating. 

22:50
Are they running a little bit of tempo, are they not? What are they doing? So I don't expect to have a bet. I mean, I, my buy price would probably be like 52 and a half. So that's where I'm at there, my power. It's actually almost right dead on my pure power rating on that game, so I haven't touched it. Haven't seen too much movement there. 

23:10
Charlie Kelly in the chat thoughts on Ole Miss under 9.5 win total plus money seems like the sharp side. I am not bad at it yet because I think the public is going to want to bet over because all the number one transfer portal class offensive driven team Kiffin's in the news a lot of times for positive people like that. So I was actually hoping to get a rogue 10. Have not seen it. Just, I don't think we haven't seen much movement. Speaking of, we see wind total movements. You know game here, half game there. You know game and a half in some situations, some teams. We haven't seen hardly any juice movement on this win total. So but I do think under nine and a half is the sharper side. But I can't get there Cause I mean how many games are they it's in question? Maybe only like three or four. They're going to have to lose, like three, three of their four toughest games, and I'm not prepared to say that yet. 

24:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's where I was gonna. 

24:11
Exactly where I was gonna go was even though I'm not the biggest Kiffin fan or like want to bet him the national title, any of that that the front, the front half of the schedule, is so easy that it's, I mean, maybe the first. 

24:19
You know, the first tough game is going to be at South Carolina, but I agree, they don't. It just lines up for them, um, even with, you know, georgia at home, oklahoma at home you know probably their two toughest game or at row, you know, obviously, lsu on the road, depending on what you think of LSU versus Oklahoma, but it just lines up where you know what it's kind of probably why it's either it's either going to be nine or ten. You know what I say. It's where, like, if it's flat nine, I'd love an over bet, if it was flat 10, I'd love an under bet. And it's priced right in the middle there at nine and a half, because this is one of those schedules that it's going to come down to either. You know an exacto there, in all likelihood, in terms of what they have. 

24:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So I can't really get no, we're not alone, because again that that hasn't moved much, maybe a little bit of juice towards the under. But kiffin traditionally doesn't have two big seasons in a row. But I mean they got. This is his most talented team he's ever coached and man, I mean I got him a double digit favorite in eight of the 12 games. So again, there's not a lot of. If you're expecting under, they're gonna have to get a major upset or lose three of those four type type of games. Uh, t lynch in the chat thoughts on indiana over five and a half, like the head coaching hire for can stay healthy. Yeah, I mean there's not a lot of depth on this team crazy. That said, outside of ohio state, michigan, every game is winnable, not screaming 10 and 2 here but only needs six could start five and one. Yeah, that's the team. 

25:43
I kind of changed positions and when that team originally, when I saw him come over and saw everybody that was in the portal already on a bad team the last couple years, indiana and I saw a five and a half win total, I'm like how does this team get the ball eligibility? I just don't see it. Uh. And then I watched it in person, went to their spring game and I could see some things. They are going to have to stay healthy and there's just just to me there's a little too much variance. I mean, if I had to bet it now I'd probably bet over. I'm not there yet because you know you are expecting basically an all-star Sunbelt team to come in and let's get a bowl game in year one. So I don't know how that it'll be a very good data point moving forward. I can tell you that. 

26:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I know, this is a point moving forward. I can tell you that, yeah, I, I know this is going to be a fascinating year one. Uh pitched uh the tent, he likes the over. 

26:37
Yeah, you know what I don't I and I don't hate that position, I. I just think that the issue, as you said, one one is going to be deaf. Two is, rourke has not had the cleanest I. I think you're really risking the season complete, you know. And again, a guy I like at quarterback, I think brilliant idea to bring him in when he hangs on the balance, as you saw with Ohio's, you know, when he was like, if he anything happens to him, it's very similar Like what Cade, cade McNamara at Iowa, where you're bringing in one guy specifically, he has to be good and stay healthy for your offense to function. Where it that? That would be my, you know, only challenge is that if he goes down at which he has and he's had, he struggled to stay healthy throughout his career then then you're, you're sunk, you're almost non-competitive in in most of your schedule there. 

27:25 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So again, Even Jackson kid's okay at backup. 

27:29 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you think he's all right. 

27:30 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I watched him. One thing I love spring game if I can just zero in. I don't have to follow the ball. I can just zero in on that. I think I'll be okay. I don't know You're not cashing that I'm in. What I mean? Okay is you know Rourke gets hurt game one Are you going to go 2-10? No, I don't think you're going over 5-1⁄2, but I don't think the season's completely lost. I'll put it that way. What do I mean by that? I don't think Rourke is like five points better than him Okay, okay. 

27:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
No, that's fair. I just yeah. Yeah, it's a little disconcerting. Again, going to my head, I would lean them over five and a half as well, but there's some holes there where things could obviously go off the rails if not to fruition. 

28:15 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, an intriguing team, to say the least. I think that UCLA game will be a pretty big game for both teams. Just to get an idea, that's early in the season. On that one, I got Rourke only. I spent some time on, uh, what I think the quarterback values are worth and I published into my guide I have rourke two points better, so that the thing off the top of my head I was thinking that I didn't have rourke that much better. Then they were both competing in the spring game. I could tell you there wasn't, wasn't like rourke was head and shoulders above them. Will in in a chat. Hey guys missed that. Michigan 8.5. Do you think it gets there again? How much did it bounce back to 9? 

28:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
It was just juiced, it was 8.5 minus 150. I think now it's minus 160. So you? 

28:59 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
got to pay up for it. 

29:01
I think yeah, I would certainly lean there. If that was the first number I saw this offseason I would have bet over. I'm just happy with my under bets on Michigan. Nine and a half, not nine, like the blue horseshoe late to the party Nine and a half, because I think nine's the number. Honestly I do, even with a lot of quarterback issues. But again, that's another team fall camp and that's the exciting thing. We can get done with the stupid video game a couple of weeks here, done with the stupid media days and we get in a fall camp and I can get some good information. Finally, I feel like it's been a while. 

29:36
How much did South Dakota State lose production wise? Not a little bit. Obviously they had one of the more veteran senior classes that we've seen in the FCS, but they still got 13, 14 guys back starters. Big reason that was up in the air was their quarterback was considering the portal and there was rumors that he would go with his offense coordinator. That's the new offense coordinator at Northwestern. There was rumors of that but he ended up staying. 

30:05 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So there's still going to be obviously one or two in an fcs power rating yeah, I saw some of the early preview stuff, uh, that they had of number one. Um, I mean, they're, they're gonna be, you know, pretty loaded again. Um, I would say I think they're that I was. I just wanted to make sure this is true. Transfers lost to FBS Mind you, this is probably the most talented FSDF was zero, so they didn't lose a. I don't know what they're doing up there in South Dakota. 

30:39
I don't know if the oil money in South Dakota is flowing and they're keeping these guys. Didn't lose a single transfer to an FBS program. So again, they lost some stuff to graduation, as you said, but didn't lose. Didn't lose anybody to the portal to fps. So that is a testament to uh, whatever they got going on there in brookings uh, yeah, big time. 

31:00 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, winning culture. Not a bad. It gets obviously cold in the winter but, uh, boy, in the summertime not bad part of the country. I drove through it a couple years ago. Love that, uh part of the country. Uh, brendan, cold in the winter but, boy, in the summertime not bad part of the country. I drove through it a couple years ago. Loved that part of the country. Brendan in the chat. So you're going to have CS. Look at this rolling Montana State still playable at 7.5. It's complicated, I think. So I'll say this I think it ends up closing higher, but let's just hold off. Let's see it ends up closing higher, but let's just hold off. Let's see. You know, people are going to be shocked to see that. Oh my God, an FCS team favored by more than a touchdown against an FBS team. Let's, let's let the market play out a little bit more. We might be able to fire in another bet at a little bit lower number. Does that mean, is that the feel that you get? 

31:43 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I think you you would actually have some, some, but it would be a pass for me at seven and a half here I think you'll have some actual buyers at new mexico at over a touchdown there. Um, again, montana state should be. They're bringing a decent amount back, should be good, um, but again, as you said, I think you'll see some, some, but just market buying there at seven and a half on. On getting the home fbs team there, um, so yeah, it wouldn't, I wouldn't play it over seven. 

32:08 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I agree, gus, in the chat are we cashing out of the austin back heisen? Yes, I mean everyone. I made 200 or 300 bets now and that's the worst one I made. Yes, it's, it's no good. Sorry gus. Uh, that was pure speculation. They had a market up in jan, so yeah, it sucks. It's the worst bet I made. Thank you for reminding me of that. Laying in the chat thoughts on regular season wins for Arkansas under four and a half, likely to only be fair in three games. Nearly every tough game is at home, except Mizzou. I mean I'd probably still lean that way under four and a half. But the problem is there was much, much better numbers available for a while on Arkansas I mean just a few weeks ago. Is still there's still some heavy juice. Five and a half. You had to lay like minus one 70, minus one 80, but we're talking a full one difference. We're talking well over a hundred cents. 

33:02
So if I had originally saw four and a half. I probably would have no bet put it that way. I do think this is it for Sam Pittman. This is last year. 

33:11 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree. I I do worry that you know Petrino could kind of give this offense a lifeline. In terms of the four and a half, that um it, it would be a no for me. I mean, they've got La Tech at home, you got Pine Bluff, they got UAB. Even you know your trips to Oklahoma State and Auburn aren't, you know, unwinnable for a team like Arkansas. So they do get some of the cream of the crop there in terms of, you know, the meat of the schedule. But I agree with that. I think five and a half, even juiced five and a half, was worth a buy. Four and a half is a pass. 

33:44 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think the market's starting to bottom out a little bit on Arkansas because South Point released their game of the years. I bet a couple games on Arkansas against Texas. I think it was actually Westgate put up the Louisiana Tech game. I thought was like five, six points off. So the random game Arkansas-Louisiana Tech. I already have a bet on that game. Believe it or not, I bet Arkansas. I laid it Austin in the chat. Hey guys. Thoughts on App State to win the Sunbelt East. Oh, wow, where's that available? Division odds Sunbelt East plus 140. Arkansas over four. We just talked to Arkansas Passed there at four and a half. Petrino, wow, level up the offense. Were you reading that comment? No, I'm kidding. So you know. I do think App State's the best team in the East. I bet them to win the conference. I bet them over their win total. James Madison's taking a step back. Coastal's not as good. I don't like Marshall this year. So yeah, I do like App State to win the East. 

34:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'd like to know where that's available because I would, I wouldn't mind betting that. Yeah, I, I mean I, I think they're the best team in the east. Um, I don't know if, if, if plus 140 brings me to uh the window, but I, I will say just, I'll be right, I'll say I haven't, haven't priced strictly the division odds there, uh, well, I have the joey model 2000, doesn't? 

35:07
yeah, I was gonna say usually I, you know, we kind of do some freight and then get the few opinions picked in, including bp. So, um, haven't haven't gotten there yet, so I would just be kind of straw man in it for you, are they? 

35:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
the bad again. James madison at home. You know what the only hang up is man, I don't. I still don't like the coach that much. He's not consistent enough for me. Yeah, I, man, I still don't like the coach that much. He's not consistent enough for me. Yeah, I agree with you, I don't like offensive line coaches that much. That's a dig at you if you know Spammy Stosa in the chat. Do you see value in any of the to make the playoff wagers? I mean, I did. I haven't looked at the market. Excuse me, I haven't looked at the market. Excuse me, I haven't looked at the market. In a couple weeks, everyone wants to bet long shots. I can tell you long shots, so to speak, that I bet, obviously the G5s. I bet Boise, liberty, app State, texas State. I'm missing one Memphis. I think that's it. I think. 

36:03
Texas State was the longest that's my favorite long shot to make the playoff. I didn't even look at the power conferences. A lot of that was priced good and you and I have talked about this. I want to see who leaves them up during the course of the season, because if I can buy a low spot on a P4 team that lost a couple early games and I think they'll win out, then I'll I'll, you know I'll jump in then. But other than that I haven't jumped into any really long shots. 

36:30 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Or, to speak at the power level, yeah, no, I mean it says again what market we've talked about. That looks one we're intrigued by during the season preseason nothing really, I mean all the big teams that you thought would be there. So I think this is one kind of let it marinate and see what we've got after a few weeks or when a team loses a critical game, that type of thing. 

36:52 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Biggest bet I made in that market, though, was I did lay a little bit of juice. I laid Oregon minus 200 to get to the playoff. I liked it quite a bit, especially when Georgia and Ohio State were priced at that point like minus 500, minus 600 I. I don't think oregon should be that high, but uh, I thought they should have been a lot higher than minus 200. I'll put it that way. Uh, so anything 250 or less, if you can find it is good there. And boy, if you really had to make a bet there, I would even lay minus 300. That's how much I like that bet spammy. So so also in the chat, are we ever going to get a florida plus three against miami or usc plus seven? Lsu week one? 

37:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
uh, we talked about that a little bit might, but it won't last long yeah, they've both been there at points, and so the fact that they've already been bought up kind of tells the story there. So maybe for a flash, but probably not for any more than that chat's active. 

37:43 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We got like I got 20 in q still. This is unbelievable. Uh, joshua the chat really think that Kennesaw State is completely unprepared to step up to the FBS? Even their game against UT Martin is not a sure thing. I agree with that. I feel like regular season win total under two and a half is a great option here. Also, fading week one. Yeah, I mean, I bet against them week one. My numbers would say two should be the right number there. Only my numbers would say two should be the right number there. Only thing that bothers me is I think they didn't treat last year. They treated it as a nothing, so a lot of their key guys didn't play, they redshirted it. I was hoping to get like a three, three and a half, just never showed. 

38:24 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, we talked about a little last week where you know they kind of did the Sam Houston State model of like we're, you know, we're redshirting people, we're trying to load up and be, you know, be ready for the week Didn't really work out for Sam Houston State. 

38:33
They were still terrible week one. But my biggest, you know, detractor would be that, you know, for the most part Conference USA is trash. I mean, they play a bunch of horrible teams. So even if they're not I mean obviously you've got Liberty and Jacksonville State should be better, the UTSA game, even Louisiana from the Sun Belt, but they're going to have six games against what I would consider to be pretty porous bottom quarter competition to where, if they overperform a little bit to what we think, is it impossible to get to three and nine? No, so I agree with you, at a three or a three and a half I would have been in. I just think two and a half was kind of too slim. A lot of you know, when you're playing, especially that type in Conference USA, you can kind of, you know, fluke your way to two, three wins. 

39:28 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We saw Sam Houston had Liberty on the ropes last year. Everyone forgets that. 

39:32
They probably should have won that game. The team that went unbeaten and Sam Houston State had them on the ropes. So I agree with you there. Ethed in the chat thoughts on UNLV Moneyline or spread plus three and a half Houston Oregon Moneyline and home to Ohio State. I agree with both. I like UNLV quite a bit. Uh, week one, uh haven't, you know, released the tout service yet, but I have that individually bet that game. Uh, oregon, I think should be favored. Now I don't know, knowing what I know now I wish I could have that bet back a little bit. But uh, I think Oregon wins that game. I'm not buying that. I'm a little bit. But I think Oregon wins that game. I'm not buying that. I'm a little bit higher on Oregon than the market. 

40:12 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm a little bit lower on the Buckeyes than the market. I would agree. I would agree with you on that stance. You are. You are definitely higher on you and LB than me. I will say that I am not as, and again, it's not. I'm not, I'm not again not saying I'm. I'm jumping into fade there, but I, I, you know a little. I have a little question there. 

40:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
About what let's talk, unlv. 

40:44 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I mean I'm not totally sold on the Mountain West roster going to you know a big. Do I think, player to player, like they're a better team than Houston? I don't, um, so I, I would just be a little cautionary in terms, especially out of comfort now if you want to tell me that you know, hey, barry odom track record defense, he should, he should get them in shape. I I just I didn't love where maybe the, the program and the team left off and can he walk in and be year one Maybe. But I'm just not as bullish. Doesn't mean I'm fading them, just not as bullish. 

41:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I think because my numbers actually say UNLV under win total, I think the more mispricing is probably I'm much lower in the market on Houston than the market that uh on houston than the market. My favorite win total bet was houston under four and a half. Okay, I mean, I, my numbers are closer to three, so I think that's where I'm much, much lower. Love willie fritz I was gonna say that yeah I don't love that team and I hate that schedule. 

41:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Okay, that schedule is because in the match, in the matchup of head coaches and just where they're at. I like Willie Fritz a lot better than I like Barry Odom. 

41:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right, Maybe game week we'll have a head-to-head there two and a half. 

41:53 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
All right. 

41:55 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
All right To be determined there. Tony McMurray, I know this guy, I like him. Hey, bp, can you rank Michigan's strengths and weaknesses by positions? I'm pretty sure quarterbacks are the weakest. Go blue, he bleeds blue. Tony McMurray, friend of the program, yeah, I mean, I would say quarterback's the biggest question mark, coaching staff. I have question marks. 

42:21 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Honestly, I'd put wide receiver ahead of quarterback if. 

42:24 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm Really Wide receiver Well. 

42:26 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't. Well, I don't think you don't like the Maj Morgan. They've got a couple of you, the slot small guys, they, they. They don't have a single outside proven like wide receiver one? Yeah, they don't. And worst case scenario, they got Jack Tuttle. Baby Don't don't you worry about the quarterback position. If Orgy doesn't come through, jackie Tuttle will be all right. 

42:51 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I'm not that worried. Defensive depth I would say Individual positions I think they're okay. Secondary is taking a hit more than expected with a transfer and an injury compared to what they were expecting to come back a few months ago. So a little bit worried. That would be the worry. On defense, I'm not a big fan of the defensive coordinator. We'll see. Schedule is a little tougher. We'll find out. Man, I'm excited. I'm excited to see what they got. 

43:23
Michigan, texas. I mean, I'm telling you, I've said this If there was one game I could go. You I've said this If I could, if there's one game I could go to, that'd be the game. I hope you go to that game. Uh, t smooth. 86 thoughts on Buffalo under five and a half. Coaching change Seems like an upgrade, but a bowl season seems like a tall task. Yeah, I haven't got to the window yet. I would lean under. I do like limbo as a coach. Uh, quite a bit. It fits in the Mac. He won a ball state, got a bad rap there, uh, at ball state. Uh, he's been a special teams coordinator, uh, one of the best in the country the last few years. At South Carolina. Uh, under five. I think five and seven is much more likely than six and six. So if you can find a flat, five and a half kudos. 

44:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I haven't met it yet, though. Yeah, no same thoughts there, kind of, if you're shopping around, maybe you can find a rogue one, um, but other than that wouldn't have any opinion on where it's at for the most part chris in the chat need an update on the knish ball state dynasty. 

44:15 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Are you playing, actively playing? 

44:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm not well, I, I was good. I don't know if I could do the show with you anymore. If I decide to buy a video game to play, I'd be. But no, I, chris, I love you. I. I think the problem with gaming these days and this isn't going to be a bp rent is to really be competitive as a competitor. It's almost like a part-time job. You really got it. You can't just like I'm gonna pick up the sticks and have a fun, like it's nintendo wii or something, and you're playing, you know, like tennis with your you know six-year-old kid or something. If you really want to do it, you gotta do it. Um, so I, I haven't I, but it seems the game is insanely popular, people enjoying it and stuff, so it's cool. It came out. Unfortunately, uh, I don't think you know, uh, joe joey, joey dougs will be. Uh, you know you're picking up the sticks. Uh, because I got a little too much going on to to put in the time required for it I've heard that it seems a little tougher well it's going to come across like I'm softening my stance, but I'm just going to clarify 

45:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
when I was critical of the game. It's not for the people that are just playing two hours a week, like you're going to the movies. But I know damn well people that are playing the game aren't playing it for two hours a week. They, like you mentioned, are playing it like a part-time job, 10, 15 hours a week. Uh, that's what I was criticizing. I think that's sad that the guys that are, you know, putting, I've already put in three, four, their dynasty seasons already without a week. Uh, that that I think, is sad. But if you're just picking it up like, oh okay, this is what I'm doing for this is my downtime, my couple hours I have each week, whatever is it what? I don't know, I still don't, it's still not, I don't get it. Just I, I don't know I'm, I'm weird in that way. I, I know I don't play. Do you play fantasy? I don't even play fantasy I know I stopped. 

46:08 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I stopped like probably five years ago now. Uh, for a lot of the same reasons that I. Just it was hard to justify the time investment anymore when you know the the return wasn't that that great. 

46:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So, um, yeah, you're not living and dying like these other people and spending I mean you're just. You know you're sharper than they are, but I don't like to lose. So it would require a hell of a lot for me to be good at fantasy or gaming. I don't have that time anymore. Trevor in the chat thoughts on Texas State win total DK as flat eight. Also, virginia Tech getting over a touchdown in Miami. Boy, I did bet Texas State over seven and and a half. I would still lean over eight. Uh, there's just not that many losable games on the schedule to get every like swing game at home. 

46:56
For the most part I think they're a high variance type of team. Maybe they don't live it up to it, but man, if they do, if they keep the ascend going, there's a reason why I bet them to make the playoffs. I think they upgraded a quarterback. I can't believe I'm saying that, but I think they did there. I think GJ Kinney's that young, bright, offensive mind that's not going to be at Texas State much longer. Bt getting over a touchdown at Miami yeah, I agree with that one. I like that one. Haven't bet it yet though. 

47:23 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I can't. This is um, I, I, I can't. This is gonna be another one where you know I'm, I'm not, I'm not that bullish on texas state to bet eight. I I do agree if I would rather take a stab at some, you know, some good few again. A lot of it's been bet down at some playoff or future prices, as opposed to because now I think you're, you're paying quite a premium on the win total. Um, yeah, in in terms of like it's, it's been bet up pretty good. Yet you're asking for for nine and three there, um, so, and in a sunbelt conference, that I think is pretty tough. So eight would have been the stop, seven and a half, I would say the stopping point for me. I wouldn't be going over eight. But listen, hey, if you want to, I don't believe BP is the one topping the San Marcos horn baby, so he'll be down there, you know, on the coast there, if you like it. 

48:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know if I would have ran to the window to bet over eight, even though my numbers certainly lean that way. I made it eight and a half. So that eight. Even though my numbers certainly lean that way, I made it eight and a half. So, uh, that's where I'm at there. 

48:36 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, a couple of announcements and we still got another 10 minutes or so. Uh, you got any olympic stuff. A lot of people are asking for joey olympics. Joey, give me, like, give me the next week. I will say this this is going to be, uh, in the weeds for the olympics. It's been harder to get down on the olympics than I thought. Some of these places on in person are not offering all of the markets that they're offering like a very slimmed down version of all the events in person or on the kiosk, um, so that's been quite frustrating. So I'll have some joey olympics for. But it's been well, don't worry, I'm coming through. But it's been a frustrating process to be in on the Olympics because I did have a lot of people working on this. 

49:18 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Kiosk as a whole down right as a whole, the ability to consistently get a lot down at the kiosk well, I, I would. 

49:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
So in this instance, it's like that. Let's say, there's 200 olympic events on the key. There's only like, oh, okay, or so you know what I'm saying. It's like the premium sports, if that, if I, that's what I'm saying like they've just got like track and field and swimming and I'm trying to bet, like you know, uh, ice dancing or something, or like you know some fellow yeah, some 12 year old, you know, bella, russian kid that, uh, you know, hasn't been let out of the gym in you know four years, because all they've been doing is that. 

49:58
So, uh, that, that that's the events I'm trying to bet, and they're only offering the meat and potatoes at the moment. 

50:04 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So maybe we'll have a special Joey Olympics. 

50:07 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I will have one next week Guaranteed. I will bring one next week. 

50:10 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Well, speaking of next week, because you relate to the pre meeting production. I am doing a stadium tour next week, so I we are not doing a live show next week. 

50:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
We will try to have some taped stuff. I'll take either tape it or just tweet it it out with the the tag oh no, yeah, I mean you, you don't have to. 

50:29 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I mean you can tweet out the olympic stuff I'm talking taped college football stuff. Then we might uh tape later this week. But we will get uh in touch, put it that way, uh. So again announcement no live show, at least this format. No live show. Next week we might have like some previews and stuff that we released to you guys. Spencer, I'm doing stadium tour. Spencer, in the chat, seeing Georgia's lowest five and a half at Ole Miss in November feels short, considering they killed them last year. Yeah, it's a little short on my numbers and I bet Georgia in that game. I don't know. I mean I think you can find better stuff to hold up your money, something that's a little off, a little bit more. When the time I bet it, I thought it was off like three and a half points. So I bet it. Five and a half, I'll just say, is not three and a half points off my number. So if I'd originally saw five and a half, I wouldn't have bet it creating a chat. Did you have any comments on that one? 

51:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I would totally like. Maybe it gets you know close to six and a half. 

51:31 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, let's look, I think it's seven and a half in some spots. So I mean, look, getting the best market number. So there you go, five and a half there. That's a fan duel. I mean, again, I'm never gonna. If you're shopping 10, 12 different books and that's about how many have this game up, believe it or not, it's one of the more popular games. Yeah, you love george in the game and that's the best price, then I'm not gonna. I mean, criticize you too much. Yeah, there's just there's a seven and a half out there in the market right right now, that one you'd like, probably old miss there. Yep, yeah, okay, uh rhymes with uh bill will. 

52:15
So if I was going to specialize in a conference, is a bigger conference easier because information is easier to come by, or harder because the books are sharpest on the sec and big 10. So that's kind of a good question. It is uh, what type of bankroll do you have? That would be, how much time do you have? Uh, if you have the time and bank rolls not really, you know, maybe you got a smaller bankroll and you got some time. I would say, smaller conference time, less money. Uh, if you have a little bit of time but more money, then I would go to a bigger conference. Does that make sense? 

52:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
yeah, I would. It is still and this is about this would be the tip like information digging in a lot of the g5 schools is has still not been what I would call automated at a lot of places it's still quite difficult to find a lot of good information for the g5 schools, especially in the mac uh or the mountain west uh, where where these two, like these teams, have no beat report. The beat reporter is like a guy in journalism, like sophomore, like that, that's like a college student, that that's not getting paid. So that would be. I would specialize. I would just recommend, I agree. 

53:23
But as brad said, if you don't have that kind of time to go digging through you, so that would be. I would specialize. I would just recommend, I agree. But as Brad said, if you don't have that kind of time to go digging through you know the Toledo Blade every week and you know calling up you know the AD to see, hey, my son's coming to a game Is. You know Ball State's quarterback playing this week. If you don't have that kind of time, then yeah, maybe the bigger conferences lends itself a little bit more to your, to your status. 

53:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
But I think in general, if you're looking for a little bit of the edge, you start smaller yeah, I, uh, I would say you know we always bitch and complain about you know, oh, the market's tougher and whatnot. I would say one thing that's happened technology-wise has been to our benefit is the destruction of the small local town newspaper. Yes, been tougher to get information, but that information still was out there. And if you said it could get automated and you had bots and whatnot to collect that info, that would really price guys like myself out. But the fact that those have gone by the wayside still requires you to dig a little bit, requires you to watch stuff. You know I was watching that game in the third quarter. The quarterback didn't look right. It was a blowout game. They took him out of the lineup, I mean, and something that maybe something you know, the box score is not going to catch. It was already a blowout at the time. That type of stuff, I would look at that type of stuff the message board trading like the. 

54:48 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Still like the guy on the message board that's been there for 10 years, who knows that I mean there's still some of that stuff that happens at the, you know, the g5 level, because, as you said that's a great point the local newspaper is basically dead across the country except in a few cities, so nobody's covering this team, getting paid to cover these teams anymore. So, yeah, it's definitely. I agree with you, it's an edge to the better. Who wants to put the work in? 

55:12 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
there's some random people on, like college students that have info sometimes, yeah, and they're in class with these kids. 

55:20 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't know I I was dming with a uh, I will call it a student journalist for one school for a large part of last year. 

55:32 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So yeah, sometimes there's just random stuff on twitter that I mean, yeah, just look at the latest and it might be no one. You recognize me like, huh, this is doesn't seem like bullshit, there might be something to it. So, yeah, I mean, requires that, that requires time. But there is you. You can get a few games a year where you just know something that everybody else doesn't. Boy, that can even happen. That happened with what was that Will Leavitt's situation. South Carolina conducted it. 

56:09
I read the tea leaves. I'm like I don't think it's playing Dee Lee in the chat. Does Wyoming plus seven and a half fan duel. Has that been given out? It has to be a bet given the market. Okay, sorry, I I dyslexia trying to read that. Uh, yeah, I think you know. Obviously, seven's the most key number in college football over three. Uh, nfl's three. Uh, yeah, I mean I my wild about it because wyoming's got. I mean, arizona stadium with a second year coach has a lot of uncertainty. Wyoming with a new coach for the first time in decades uncertainty. Uh, I like I prefer the wyoming side in the game. Uh, and we'll talk as we get closer about the total. I'm not gonna say anything yeah, I don't. 

56:54 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
um, I mean you're paying a minus 120. There's still some flat sevens 110 around, so you're not getting the greatest deal. 

57:02 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
What's the Joey Kanish? 

57:06 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
How much is seven worth? Al? I was going to say a lot of places in the NFL will charge you now you know, minus 125, minus 130 to buy off of that. Even some places a little more. But I mean the total is only 46 there. So I would say you're getting, you know, call it maybe five cents ballpark of value on that, that 22. So I wouldn't blame you for bad. Now I don't love wyoming going into this year after the transition, but um, yeah, it's, but I don't blame you for it. If you want to make a market value, it's the only. Um, yeah, it's, but I don't blame you for it. If you want to make a market value, it's the only seven and a half I think around. But again, you gotta factor in what you're paying on it. 

57:46 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, if it was seven and a half flat, I'd be like, yeah, I would've been like, yeah, that's a bet. So, uh, wes in the chat, brad Kanish, do you guys have an opinion on coastal? It seems like the six and a halfs are going to be sixes today. Thanks guys. Oh, on the win total. I was thinking what's he talking about the week one? No, the win total. We talked about this last week. You and I bet over five and a half. I still like that bet. Pitch a tent Bet under six and a half. I think six is the right number. 

58:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, I don't know. We, we kind of nailed this last that like we bet over five and a half, liked it temp at under six and a half at much cheaper juice. Don't mind that either. So hopefully they go six and six I think six is the right number, so uh, yeah, don't have much else to say on that within that one ryan in the chat. 

58:36 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Uh, any big 12 championship futures in pocket. Ucf and Texas Tech are intriguing. I like the two, I bet both, but as the information I know now, I prefer UCF. I think UCF is a very solid bet. Futures market. 

58:50 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
During the conference. Yeah, my only retort there would be that I just think the price has gotten a bit thin. 

58:58 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, I didn't know it was that low. To be honest with you, I was still thinking it was 10. 

59:00 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
You know, 10 to 1 or more, yeah, yeah because I know, uh, I you know who else loved this was your boy, uh, a new friend, old demis's, new friend of the show, colin wilson, I heard uh was a big ucf guy a lot of people are yeah, I, I don't the. 

59:17
The price is a little thin for me now to be honest with you. But again, I don't hate it. I like the event, especially if you got some. I mean, I think there was originally like 15, 16 out there. I just think you're kind of buying the top, if you will, here now on 850, 9 to 1. 

59:36 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Yeah, it was in that 14, 15 to 1 range. Now I will say this just to show you I think they're a high variance team. Eight and a half was available in the wind total early. I I've been under eight and a half. I was like as way too high and I think the markets agree with me about seven and a half out there. But I think, hey, if I'm wrong, then this seems going to be really good. 

59:59
And boy, 14, 15 to 1 to win the conference at that time is why I still you know that was my hedge on that team, so to speak uh, alvaro in the chat, stanford plus eight and a half, still good against tcu. I still think it's the right side. I just it's late to the party. You and I talked about it. When it's double digits on this show, you gotta watch this show weekly. We appreciate everyone watching today, but I just want to remind everybody to watch weekly. What we were talking about it when it was double digits On this show, you got to watch this show weekly. We appreciate everyone watching today, but I just want to remind everybody to watch weekly. We were talking about it when it was double digits. 

01:00:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, again, it's one of the. I still kind of like it, so I wouldn't talk you out of it. 

01:00:30 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
We get the game week and our money's not being tied up, don't be a bit surprised we might come out and say, yeah, this bit surprised. We might come out and say, uh, yeah, this is my favorite bet available, but right now. 

01:00:42 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I don't expect it to move much right now. Yeah, I would say, yeah, let it marinate. That's one already came down a few points, let it marinate a bit again. That same, I agree with you. If it's still sitting there game week, we'll probably say, hey, give it out at that price. But um, you'd hate to be, you know, sitting with eight and a half in pocket when you, you know nine, nine, nine and a half, 10, maybe be 10. I mean, I don't know if 10 flashes again, but every half point, every point, you want, you want to, you want to eke out as you can. 

01:01:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
So you know who is. We'll just got a couple more and then we'll. I'll go a little bit longer today Cause we might not have a show next week. You know who was watching when we're talking about that game horseshoe, because he gave out freaking stanford. Uh, so this guy, unbelievable, remind me not to, I don't know, remind me to block his computer. When it comes to our content, my power ratings, I just can't give him stuff because he's I see the stuff he's giving. I was like man, I haven't even given that stuff out yet. God, where are you getting this me on? Nick in the chat temple under two and a half. Nick in the chat Temple, under two and a half season wins. I would still bet under two and a half, you and I. The biggest juiced win total bet we made was under three and a half. What did we lay? 190?. Love that bet. Very comfortable with that bet. Might not win a game this year. They won't be a favorite in any game, I can tell you that. 

01:01:59 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I agree, and I remember this year poof. No, they won't be a favorite in any game. I can tell you that I, I and I remember we, even I I mean it was a little juicy we pay about three and a half. Uh, I think that was your favorite one that we, uh, we got in and I, I lean that way too. 

01:02:09
My, my guy, ej warner, um, is, you know, gone through the rice, if you, if you told me, and listen, we, I don't know why I bet Temple so many times last year when they didn't have him on the field. They were like horrific, I don't know, like he was the, the only way they were winning games was EJ Warner looking like his dad, you know, throwing 400 yards. So, um, yeah, that's one that, like, I don't. I agree with you and and we, I mean we talked earlier Kennesaw State, you know two and a half, but earlier Kennesaw State, you know two and a half. But this is a different level of, you know, like schedule. They're having to play with two and a half. So, yeah, it's going to be a long year in Philly. 

01:02:49 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Sean Higgs in the chat One of our guys, yeah, one of our guys. How about this donation? $153. Awesome, really appreciate that. We did recently get our haircuts. I got mine today. That's why I didn't wear a hat. I just come from the uh sports clips. You got yours the other week, uh, 153 bucks. We really, really appreciate that, sean, and obviously, hopefully, the pizza man's not hogging all of it, him and Moreno, hopefully, because Zach is the is the the straw that serves the drink of this show. So he does ask, though bat bash this year for you I am trying to get out. 

01:03:31 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I got some vacation I need to burn. I'm going to have people ask me about this every week. I'm gonna try and get out there. It'll only be for a night or two, so I won't be there for the full week and I know BP's doubting me trying to get out there for a night or two Just because I get-. 

01:03:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Where can I bet to know? 

01:03:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I want to say honestly, for the most part it'd be me, just me, and a lot of you guys like people that I've worked with, people I know face to face and having that I won't. So that's a short way of saying I won't be doing a lot of the schedule. I'm trying to get out there for a night or two though, so I'm planning to do that and have the flight, I think, but it would be early in the week, be just like a Wednesday. Thursday are you flying in for the flying in for the Friday night party? And I say Thursday, so I don't know if I'll be there till Friday, but I think I'll be there a little early in the week. So but hey. 

01:04:24
I know if you're interested in going. 

01:04:26 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
a lot of people out there, so once again, we really really appreciate you, Sean, For sure Not necessary, but hopefully that goes to Zach, who's the all-star of the show. So we appreciate you guys very much for that. Uh, sean Higgs, one of our best loyal listeners. Uh, unfortunately I know we got quite a few more questions, but uh, you know. 

01:04:49 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I'm going to go, you know what? 

01:04:50 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
I want to keep going. 

01:04:51 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Ask me the Charles. I know Chuck's a loyal listener cfb award and I've got one that you are gonna like too, all right, and it's belitnikoff. Okay, belitnikoff. So that's that's your. Someone asked about luther burden last week and I told him no, and I've had some trouble getting down on this dion berks to win the belitnikoff anywhere. We'll call it 35. Some places that have 50 to 1, there's a little 30, I'd say anything. 30 to 1, or better. Your guy, I know you like him, I love him in this offense. Think he's in for a big year and the type of offense they play. That to me a worthy. I know that market's hard to find, not a ton of places they able to get down on. I do think Deon Burks at a 30 will call it 30 to one, or better. Worth a little sprinkle, I like that than any of the top ten there. Yeah, top six, eight guys I think are too short. Burks, 35 to one, which I know is the site you're referencing, is I like that better? I'll put it that way. 

01:05:57 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Illiquid market. But you know what, I don't know if I got a better, best bet than that, and it's up at a few places. Yeah, yeah, I would like that one to be tracked too, because I think that is a very good bet. I'm guessing it'll be gone by the time I get done with this show. So I agree, I do like Deion Burks quite a bit. Pass happy offense. He played like a first. I'm just telling you, I watched 50 spring games. He played like a first, not an all American first team all. 

01:06:25 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
American, yeah, and he like, you see the guy like, the guy looks like I don't know what. They put him in the weight room. I know he was big, I'd have to do the guy looks like an NFL first round pick, just like physically speed, wide, like, and I think you're going to see some some pretty insane numbers from him this year. 

01:06:40 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Read in the chat. Without the hat, BP looks like a fifth grade math teacher in a bad marriage. Appreciate that, Read. I don't disagree. The hat will be back next week. So sorry, I just didn't feel like getting hair on the hat. I didn't have time to take a shower for the show. But I appreciate that. Don't disagree with the comment there. Let's get a couple more Nathan Nebraska minus 27 and a half week one, or Nebraska minus six and a half week two. Don't like either, honestly at this point. Maybe week one a little bit more, but I don't know if I want to be laying that much with a true freshman quarterback. Where you at there. 

01:07:17 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Yeah, you know what you nailed much with a true freshman quarterback where you at there, yeah, that, yeah, you know what you were. You nailed it exactly great minds here. I I need to see a little bit from their offense to to let, before I'm going to lay that kind of number um and you know what, and I get I think the defense will be very good. I know this call, this show, is typically very anti-Colorado. Yeah, I would. Again, I'd be a little worried laying a touchdown against a team that I think has a lot more weaponry kind of on offense and we can throw it around. I mean, we can talk about, you know, travis Hunter and Shadur Sander, but in a game like that where they're getting a touchdown, I think they're going to have. They're just, I mean, mean both those guys are gonna be nfl players, so I don't know if I'm ready to lay a td against them. 

01:08:06 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
No, I'm not either that's gonna be one hell of a game, though I know not a national title contenders, but I'm excited for nebraska colorado that that game be talked about. Uh, quite a bit. I think it's a nbc saturday night game that'll get some quite a bit. I think it's NBC Saturday night game That'll get some views. A couple more Arctic Vibe 15. Really agree about the value of strength of coaches. How do you feel about Mike Elko bringing in three-time national champ Tommy Moffitt, strength coach at A&M? See wins versus Notre Dame, lsu and Mizzou. Well, if you see wins against Notre Dame, lsu and Mizzou, you should be betting on them winning the SEC. You should be betting over eight and a half wins because I mean their only underdog role, true underdog role, is probably Texas. So yeah, you're higher on it than me. Moffitt was let go at LSU. I think Brian Kelly let him go. I thought he lost his fastball a little bit at LSU. 

01:09:01 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
That's just my thoughts on the strength coach. I mean, I'll just put it bluntly, michigan won a national title because of the strengths coach hire and Ben Herbert that Harbaugh brought in. So I agree we talked about it last week that like, especially if you're that second tier of program that needs to develop guys in the Iowa, the Wisconsin, any of those that want you want to play physical football and win in the trenches, you're not going to get like the guys that Alabama gets and brings in. And then that looked like you know our 300 pounds, six, five when they're 18, I think a strength coach, a huge part of the team, so yeah, but in that instance, as you said, maybe he's lost a. You know a little bit of the fastball there, but having I think that that's kind of one of those, those hires that don't get as much popularity as like a coordinator that can make all the difference. 

01:09:48 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
Again. I just think he's a little long in the tooth. Strength, strength and conditioning stuff's changing a little bit so I don't know yet that I'm a little, we'll find out. 

01:09:57
Week one big game Eat that in the chat. Georgia Moneyline or minus one at Texas Don't have a big enough edge personally to bet that game. Lean Georgia for me, craig in the chat, over under Florida, five wins this year. Probably lean under, but five and a half was available. I love under five and a half. Put it that way Gators 5-4-4-. Put it that way uh, gators 5, 4, 4, 5 and you can jump in if you have something here. Uh, maybe a question is too vague for this discussion any advice on derivative markets for college football? Obviously they aren't up yet. 

01:10:27 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
Uh, I'm gonna let you attack this one, but any good way to attack more so than the other um, I mean I did team, you know, team totals, first half team totals, uh, for for a while that it's again. The liquidity isn't going to be there and again that's stuff that's not available till, usually game game, sometimes game week, sometimes even before the game. So, yeah, I don't, I don't mind attacking those, it's just, uh, it again a little harder to get down a little bit more. You know, a lot of places aren't going to put that up until the number's been kind of shaped a bit too. 

01:10:58 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
You and I. As far as derivatives, we're starting to do a little bit more of that on the Friday show during the corporate season as those markets appear. So look for that. I started getting into more first halves last year but but sometimes that requires me to like kind of get a feel and watch a team a few weeks to get a feel how the how they're playing. But we'll have more of that on the Friday show this year. Rw Fan 23,. We need a BP as OSU versus Canisius U of M head-to-head matchup live on the air on Hit the Books headquarters. You know we talked about that. As far as content, doing some not a long big show but maybe like a halftime of the biggest game of the week. So another piece of content. You guys seem to like us so we might have another piece of content coming up this year. We'll announce that when it's official, but we might be doing a small little segment on game days like halftime show, yep yep, yep, I would look forward to it. 

01:11:52 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
And hey, I'm going to keep adding to the folio. Baby Michigan. I just saw Westgate put out an 11. Give me all the Michigan double digits in that one. I don't care. I don't care if BP's uncle's playing quarterback for Michigan. I'll take double digits in the Ohio. 

01:12:05 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
State game. This year Blitnikoff market. Again. We gave out Deion Burks, anything 30-1 or greater. Betonline had that CambyBook. Savitt, I'm trying to think. Who else did you see have that market? 

01:12:16 - Joey Knish (Co-host)
I think DK in some states has it as well. 

01:12:20 - Brad Powers (Co-host)
But we love FanDuel. Just want to say that we love FanDuel. More on that coming up in future weeks. So for the man to met the legend himself, joey Knish. Producer extraordinaire Zach Phillips. Shout out again to Sean Higgs and everybody else in the chat for today's show. It was a great one. I'm merely Brad Powers. You just watch. Hit the books. Part of the hammer betting network. We'll talk to you in the future.