Understanding KenPom | How To Crush March Madness

When March Madness rolls around, every edge counts. One tool that’s become essential for sharp bettors is KenPom -the gold standard in college basketball analytics. In this guide, we’ll break down what KenPom is, why it matters, and how you can use its advanced metrics to supercharge your NCAA Tournament brackets and betting strategy. Whether you’re chasing a perfect bracket or seeking value bets, KenPom’s insights can tilt the odds in your favor. View our full Mach Madness 2025 betting guide, outlining the sharp betting strategies you can use to build your bankroll during the big dance!

What Is KenPom and Why Should You Care?

KenPom (short for Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings) is an advanced analytics system that ranks all Division I basketball teams based on efficiency and strength of schedule. The KenPom site has revolutionized how we evaluate teams. It goes beyond traditional stats (like points per game) by focusing on per-possession efficiency. In simple terms, KenPom looks at how many points teams score and allow per 100 possessions, adjusting for opponent quality and game tempo.

Who Is Ken Pomeroy and How Did KenPom Start?

So, who’s the brain behind KenPom? Meet Ken Pomeroy—a guy who once predicted thunderstorms for a living before he started forecasting bracket busters.

Ken’s journey began in the world of meteorology, armed with degrees from Virginia Tech and Wyoming, and more than a decade spent with the National Weather Service. But growing up in Northern Virginia, surrounded by the fierce hoops of the ACC and Big East in the ’80s, he was hooked on college basketball long before analytics were cool.

His passion didn’t just simmer on the back burner; it turned into KenPom.com—a statistical playground for college hoops nerds. Ken started building his site in the early 2000s, tracking every Division I team and crunching data as only a weather guy could—methodically, persistently, and with an eye for the big picture. What began as a niche hobby grew into the go-to resource for diehard fans, sharps, and even coaches—many of whom now lean on KenPom’s rankings when drawing up their game plans.

His deep dive into per-possession stats and efficiency ratings didn’t just catch the attention of diehards. As his influence grew, his metrics started showing up everywhere: television broadcasts, coaching offices, even NCAA selection committee meetings. Coaches like West Virginia’s Kory Barnett have called Ken a “genius,” and for good reason—his system changed how teams are scouted, seeded, and bet on in March.

From Niche Curiosity to College Basketball Staple

At first, KenPom started as a personal project—just one man crunching numbers for the love of the game. But it didn’t take long for the rest of the basketball world to catch on. As coaches, broadcasters, and fans realized how much deeper the insights ran compared to simple win-loss records, KenPom became a go-to resource not only online but behind the scenes.

Today, those same analytics are scrawled across whiteboards in locker rooms, referenced during TV broadcasts, and even considered by the NCAA tournament selection committee. As West Virginia assistant coach Kory Barnett once put it, Ken Pomeroy’s system isn’t just smart—it’s become an essential part of how teams prepare, strategize, and compete.

Why is KenPom valuable? Because it brings objectivity and context to college hoops. The NCAA selection committee even uses similar analytics when seeding teams. More importantly for bettors, KenPom’s metrics have a track record of identifying the true heavyweights and Cinderella candidates in March. For example, over a 15-year span, only 6 of 60 Final Four teams came from outside KenPom’s top 20. And 9 of the past 15 national champions were KenPom’s No. 1 team entering the tournament. When it comes to March Madness, KenPom tends to separate contenders from pretenders.

What KenPom Misses: Limitations to Keep in Mind

KenPom isn’t a crystal ball—and it does have a few blind spots. The biggest knock? It doesn’t factor in real-time roster changes like injuries or suspensions. If a star player suddenly goes down right before the tournament, the model won’t reflect that absence until it starts impacting on-court results and team efficiency. For example, if Duke’s top scorer turned an ankle in practice, KenPom would only “notice” after Duke’s performance (and numbers) actually take a hit.

Other quirks? KenPom is laser-focused on efficiency and statistical trends, but it doesn’t measure intangibles like coach adjustments, player morale, or late-season momentum surges—elements that can shift the March Madness landscape in a heartbeat. And while it adjusts for opponent strength, certain matchup quirks or contrasting play styles may slip through the cracks.

Bottom line: KenPom is a powerful tool, not a cheat code. Smart bettors should always pair its insights with real-time news and their own hoops savvy.

Key KenPom Metrics Explained (Without the Math Degree)

KenPom’s site can feel like alphabet soup at first glance. Here are the key metrics you need to know, explained in plain English:

• AdjO (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) – Points a team scores per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality. Higher AdjO means a more potent offense.

• AdjD (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) – Points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality. Lower AdjD means a stingier defense.

• AdjT (Adjusted Tempo) – The pace at which a team plays, measured in possessions per 40 minutes. A high tempo means fast-paced games; low tempo teams play more deliberately.

• AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) – The difference between a team’s offense and defense (AdjO – AdjD), essentially their net rating per 100 possessions. This underpins a team’s overall KenPom rank.

• Luck Rating – A quirky KenPom stat measuring the gap between a team’s actual wins and what their efficiency suggests. Teams with lots of close wins might be deemed “lucky.”

• Strength of Schedule (SoS) – KenPom breaks this down into offensive and defensive components, showing the quality of opponents a team has faced. Great teams in weak conferences can pad stats, and KenPom’s adjustments account for that.

Think of AdjO and AdjD as the bread and butter: they tell you how elite a team is on each end. Tempo is the style factor: a fast team vs. a slow team can impact betting totals and game flow. AdjEM (Efficiency Margin) is like the team’s power rating – a quick way to gauge overall dominance. We’ll focus on how these matter for your bracket and bets next.

Which Teams Lead the Pack in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency?

If you're searching for the squads that hang their hats on defense this March, KenPom’s numbers have your back. The 2025 tournament features a clear crop of defensive juggernauts, many of whom double as top seeds:

• St. John's (No. 2 seed, West): Under Rick Pitino’s watch, they boast the stingiest defense in the field, making life miserable for opposing offenses.
• Houston (No. 1 seed, Midwest): Unsurprisingly, Kelvin Sampson’s bunch is a nightmare to score on, continuing their tradition of suffocating D.
• Tennessee (No. 2 seed, Midwest): Rick Barnes’ Volunteers clamp down as hard as anyone, leading the SEC’s defensive charge.
• Duke (No. 1 seed, East): Wielding length and athleticism, the Blue Devils make every possession a chore.
• Michigan State (No. 2 seed, South): Tom Izzo’s teams always answer the bell defensively, and this year’s group is among his best.
• Maryland (No. 4 seed, West) and Texas A&M (No. 4 seed, South): Both punch above their seed lines thanks to lockdown efforts on this end.
• Saint Mary’s (No. 7 seed, East) and Iowa State (No. 3 seed, South): Don’t sleep on these tough outs—their defensive discipline can frustrate tourney favorites.
• Florida (No. 1 seed, West), Kansas (No. 7 seed, West), and Auburn (No. 1 seed, South): Each is built on controlling the paint and forcing tough looks.

If you’re eyeing bracket upsets or deep runs, keep an eye on these defensive standouts. Any squad that sits in KenPom’s defensive top-12 is worth an extra look—especially when the pace slows and every stop matters most.

Which Teams Lead the Pack in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency?

If you’re eyeing high-octane offenses for your bracket or betting slips, here’s where KenPom’s numbers really shine. The top programs in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) aren’t just racking up points—they’re doing it against quality competition, on a per-possession basis.

For the 2025 NCAA Tournament, these squads stand out as the most dangerous with the ball in their hands:

• Florida (No. 1 seed, West)
• Auburn (No. 1 seed, South)
• Duke (No. 1 seed, East)
• Alabama (No. 2 seed, East)
• Missouri (No. 6 seed, West)
• Texas Tech (No. 3 seed, West)
• Purdue (No. 4 seed, Midwest)
• Kentucky (No. 3 seed, Midwest)
• Gonzaga (No. 8 seed, Midwest)
• Houston (No. 1 seed, Midwest)
• BYU (No. 6 seed, East)
• Arizona (No. 4 seed, East)

Notice that Florida, Auburn, and Alabama have carved out some separation from the rest, not just in their seeds but in offensive firepower. Missouri and Texas Tech are poised for a shootout if their paths cross—both rank among the nation’s most efficient attacks. Meanwhile, a Gonzaga-Houston matchup could turn into a race to 80, so don’t rule out fireworks.

Strong AdjO teams have a track record of surviving and advancing, especially if their defense keeps up. Next, let’s see how these offensive juggernauts stack up when it comes to defense and overall balance.

How Auburn’s Defense Stacks Up Against Tournament Competition

Auburn doesn’t just boast one of the nation’s premier defenses—they set the standard among this year’s contenders. KenPom ranks them fourth overall, but what truly sets the Tigers apart is their defensive firepower. While their rivals, like Alabama, can match them blow-for-blow on the offensive end, Auburn’s ability to consistently get stops down the stretch is a major separator.

That defensive edge isn’t just theoretical, either. In projected high-octane clashes (think another classic Iron Bowl showdown), Auburn’s knack for shutting down top offenses gives them a reliable advantage when games get tight. Their blend of rim protection, perimeter pressure, and disciplined rotations tends to break the will of even the most prolific scoring teams. Simply put: when crunch time arrives, Auburn’s defense is what pushes them past fellow heavyweights and makes them a threat to cut down the nets.

Why KenPom Matters for March Madness Betting

The NCAA Tournament is a unique beast: single-elimination, neutral sites, and high-pressure stakes. Here’s how KenPom’s metrics help you navigate the chaos:

Midwest Region: First-Round Picks and Upset Watch

So, what does KenPom have to say about the Midwest region’s opening matchups? In a word: chalk. This bracket might be the least likely to deliver first-round chaos.

Let’s break it down:

• Top seeds look safe — Houston and Tennessee both project as double-digit winners, boasting huge efficiency gaps over SIUE and Wofford. Expect business-like blowouts.
• Middle seeds favored — Purdue and Clemson have paths paved by their strong KenPom profiles and favorable draws. Kentucky and UCLA also stand out, with both sides well ahead of their opponents in adjusted efficiency.
• Upset potential? Honestly, the metrics don’t hint at much. All the favorites come in with a sizable edge in both offense and defense. If you’re searching for Cinderella, this might be the one region to leave blank on the upset line.

Bottom line: If you want to stay close to the numbers, you’ll probably advance all the higher seeds out of the Midwest—and sleep soundly knowing KenPom agrees.

1. Identifying True Contenders

Historically, national champions are elite on both offense and defense. Since 2002, every NCAA champ ranked in KenPom’s top 40 for offense and top 25 for defense. In many cases, the eventual winner is top 10 in both. For instance, UConn entered the 2023 tournament ranked #1 on KenPom and won it all, while fellow Final Four surprises San Diego State (#14 KenPom) and Florida Atlantic (#17) were still top-20 caliber. The takeaway: when filling out your bracket, give extra weight to teams that are balanced and high-ranked on KenPom.

If a popular pick has a glaring weakness (say, a flashy offense but mediocre defense), history suggests they’ll eventually get exposed. KenPom can highlight these red flags. Conversely, it can unearth under-the-radar teams that are more complete than their seed suggests.

Which Teams Top the KenPom Rankings in the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Curious which squads KenPom rates as this year’s true heavyweights? Here’s a look at the teams entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament with the highest overall KenPom rankings (regardless of seed):

• Duke (East, #1 seed)
• Florida (West, #1 seed)
• Houston (Midwest, #1 seed)
• Auburn (South, #1 seed)
• Tennessee (Midwest, #2 seed)
• Alabama (East, #2 seed)
• Texas Tech (West, #3 seed)
• Michigan State (South, #2 seed)
• Gonzaga (Midwest, #8 seed)
• Iowa State (South, #3 seed)
• St. John's (West, #2 seed)
• Maryland (West, #4 seed)

Notice a pattern? The top-ranked teams aren’t always the highest seeds—Gonzaga, for instance, slips into the top 10 on KenPom despite being just an #8 seed. This is where KenPom shines, highlighting squads whose efficiency numbers may not match up with their seed lines. If you’re looking for proven contenders (or a sneaky lower seed with the metrics to go far), these are the teams to keep an eye on as the madness unfolds.

Auburn’s KenPom and Tournament Seed Explained

Take Auburn as a prime example: they landed the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, but KenPom actually rates them at No. 4 in the nation. That means, on paper, the Tigers have an elite profile—just not the very top spot according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. This kind of discrepancy is exactly where KenPom offers valuable betting insight; Auburn’s bracket seed suggests dominance, but a deeper dive into their per-possession efficiency reveals they might not be the consensus juggernaut you’d expect from a No. 1 overall seed.

2. Spotting Upset Opportunities

Everyone wants to call the Cinderella upset. KenPom is your friend here, too. Because it adjusts for competition, it can reveal mid-majors that are legit strong despite fewer big-name wins. Look for under-seeded teams – those with a much higher KenPom rank than their bracket seed. In 2024, for example, Duke was a #4 seed but KenPom ranked them #8 (meaning they performed like a typical 2-seed). Meanwhile, some power-conference teams get overseeded (their reputation and record outpace their efficiency). Clemson in 2024 was a #6 seed but just 34th on KenPom, signaling vulnerability.

Projected First- and Second-Round Upsets for 2025

Let’s talk upsets: based on KenPom’s efficiency ratings, a handful of lower-seeded teams are poised to crash the party in this year’s first and second rounds. Here are a few that jump off the page, with the KenPom numbers giving each pick real credibility:

• Colorado State (#12) over Memphis (#5, West): Colorado State may be flying under the radar as a 12-seed, but KenPom suggests they’re far stronger than their number hints, setting up a classic 12-over-5 special.
• Gonzaga (#9) over Clemson (#5, Midwest): Gonzaga consistently grades out as a top-tier program in KenPom, even when their seed slips. Don’t be surprised if they outplay their bracket spot yet again.
• Illinois (#6) over Kentucky (#3, Midwest): Efficiency metrics like KenPom’s can highlight tough matchups for higher seeds—and Illinois fits the bill as a live underdog against Kentucky.
• VCU (#11) over BYU (#6, East): BYU might boast a solid record, but KenPom points to VCU as being far more dangerous than the seedings show.
• Gonzaga (#8) over Houston (#1, Midwest): If Gonzaga gets rolling, KenPom suggests they could topple even the tournament’s top seeds. Upset potential definitely in play here.
• North Carolina (#11) over Ole Miss (South): North Carolina barely snuck in but KenPom hints they have the firepower and experience to make an early run now that they’re in the dance.
• UC San Diego (#12) over Michigan (#5, South): Keep an eye on UC San Diego—they match up well on paper and could be a nightmare draw for Michigan.
• New Mexico (#10) over Marquette (#7, South): New Mexico’s balanced profile gives them every chance to turn heads right out of the gate.

Each of these games offers that perfect blend of statistical intrigue and bracket-busting fun—exactly what March Madness is all about. These teams aren’t just trendy upset picks; KenPom’s data backs up their potential to cause real chaos.

KenPom’s AdjO and AdjD metrics can hint at the classic upset formulas:

• Is the underdog elite at one end? A top-20 defense can keep any game close (think 2018 Loyola Chicago’s #17 defense fueling a Final Four run). A top offense can score an upset by getting hot from three.
• Tempo contrast: A slower-paced underdog can shrink the game and upset a fast favorite by frustrating their rhythm. Or a run-and-gun mid-major might blitz a plodding higher seed. Check KenPom’s tempo – a big mismatch can be a clue.

KenPom’s “Luck” factor can also identify paper tigers. A team with a high Luck rating might have squeaked out wins despite so-so efficiency; they could be ripe for an upset when the competition stiffens and the bounces even out.

What History Says About Upsets by Seed

Every March, it helps to know which types of upsets are actually in play. If you look back at past tournaments, most giant-killer stories cluster around certain seed matchups. Upsets like a 16-seed toppling a 1-seed are exceedingly rare (hello, UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson)—while 12-over-5 and 13-over-4 upsets happen with regularity. This historical blueprint can guide your bracket strategy.

So, when sizing up teams like Yale, McNeese, or Drake, be realistic—lower seeds almost never survive deep into the tournament, and their chances for historic runs are slim. Likewise, traditional power names like Memphis or Oregon shouldn't automatically earn your faith if they're seeded low; history favors teams with both strong seeds and top-notch efficiency.

It’s easy to get lured by conference darlings or name-brand schools like Michigan or Purdue if their seeding is propped up by reputation rather than results. But if KenPom’s numbers suggest their efficiency doesn't match their seed, past tournaments tell us they rarely make good on the hype. Even for high-profile SEC contenders, if the numbers don’t back them up, expecting a Championship run is usually wishful thinking.

Historical Upset Rates by Seed

Everybody loves a good bracket-buster—but just how often do lower seeds actually topple the favorites? Here's a look at the track record of March Madness upsets by seed:

• 16 vs. 1: It’s happened, but it’s rarer than a perfect bracket. Since the field expanded in 1985, only two 16-seeds have taken down a 1-seed: UMBC’s legendary rout of Virginia in 2018, and Fairleigh Dickinson stunning Purdue in 2023.
• 15 vs. 2: Slightly more common (but still a huge shock); a 15 has knocked off a 2 eleven times—the most recent being Princeton’s win over Arizona in 2023.
• 14 vs. 3: These upsets show up almost every other year, with more than two dozen 14-seeds advancing over the years.
• 13 vs. 4: 13-seeds have pulled the trick close to thirty times, so don’t sleep on them for your bracket chaos.
• 12 vs. 5: The famous 12-5 curse is real—multiple 12-seeds win practically every tournament, and there’s usually at least one 12-over-5 upset every March.

The lesson? Cinderella stories are rarest at the top, but once you get down to the 12- to 14-seed range, upsets are a time-honored tradition. Keep that in mind as you hunt for value and fill your bracket with a strategic dash of March magic.

Projected South Region Outcomes: Favorites, Upsets & Matchup Notes

Let’s walk through the South, bracket by bracket, with an eye on KenPom mismatches, sneaky upset alerts, and the heavyweights likely to survive the opening days.

First Round Breakdown

• Chalk City at the Top: Auburn and Michigan State enter as imposing favorites, and KenPom backs that up—don’t expect a historic upset at the 1- or 2-seed lines.
• Numbers-Loving Sleepers: Keep an eye on UC San Diego. Their underlying efficiency (36th on KenPom) puts them in striking distance of higher-seeded Michigan, who check in at 25th. It’s the blueprint for an early-round shocker: a mid-major quietly playing elite ball, flying under the committee’s radar.
• Battle of the Bubble: North Carolina, just off the cut line for the field, has a KenPom profile (33rd) hinting they’re much more dangerous than their double-digit seed. Don’t be surprised if the Tar Heels knock off Ole Miss and even flirt with a second-round run.
• Elsewhere: Louisville can parlay a strong late-season push into a first-round win, and Texas A&M plus Iowa State draw opponents they’re built to overwhelm.

Second Round & Beyond

• Favorites Still Have the Edge: Auburn and Michigan State are set up to keep advancing—the numbers give little hope for a stumble. Texas A&M and Iowa State present similar problems for their matchups, riding superior efficiency ratings.
• Sweet 16 Watch: Auburn’s combination of elite offense and defense widens the gap against Texas A&M. Iowa State gets a slim KenPom edge to upset Michigan State—think of it as a toss-up that tips to the Cyclones thanks to their balanced profile.
• Elite Eight Projection: By the time the dust settles, Auburn (KenPom #4) looks poised to handle Iowa State (#10), booking their ticket to the Final Four. The Tigers’ blend of top-four offense and defense usually proves too much for even the pluckiest upstarts.

In short: while a handful of under-seeded teams have upset potential, the advanced stats suggest the South is the favorites’ region to lose. If you’re playing it safe, stick with Auburn, but don’t sleep on a Cinderella push from someone like UC San Diego or North Carolina in the early rounds.

3. Betting Totals and Game Flow

If you’re betting on over/unders (totals) during March Madness, KenPom’s tempo and efficiency numbers are gold. Adjusted Tempo tells you how fast teams like to play. A game between two top-10 tempo teams? Expect a track meet – more possessions & scoring chances. Two slow, methodical teams? Likely a grind-it-out affair. In fact, totals bettors often use KenPom’s AdjT to project pace alongside offense/defense efficiency to predict scores.

While you can’t just blindly bet based on tempo, they offer a solid baseline for how gameflow will likely play out. If you see a big gap between KenPom’s projected total and the betting line, that’s a signal to investigate further.

4. Live Betting and Mismatches

In-game betting during March Madness is huge. KenPom can prep you by flagging mismatches that might not be obvious from surface stats. For example, a team with a high offensive rebounding percentage (a KenPom “Four Factor”) against an opponent weak on the defensive glass could mean second-chance points – an edge you might exploit in live bets if you see that trend playing out early.

Also, watch how teams with contrasting styles fare. If a high-tempo team jumps out early on a slow-tempo opponent, that underdog might struggle to catch up if they aren’t built to play fast. KenPom’s tempo can forewarn you of such scenarios, informing smarter live wagers.

South Region: Navigating KenPom Matchups

Want to see how KenPom’s insights might play out in the South region? Let’s walk through the path from round two to the Elite Eight—focusing on efficiency ratings, balanced strengths, and potential trap games.

Second Round Overview

The opening rounds in the South could be defined by efficiency gaps. Auburn and Michigan State, both boasting elite KenPom profiles and entering as top seeds, are poised to handle business against their early-round opponents. Iowa State and Texas A&M also land favorable matchups. Both clubs feature robust metrics that set them apart from their competition, making it tough for underdogs to engineer early shockers.

Still, watch for value in so-called “upset specials.” If a team like UC San Diego comes in with a KenPom rating just shy of Michigan’s, they’re a live underdog. Similarly, North Carolina—despite landing in the play-in—sports a KenPom grade high enough to threaten deeper advancement, possibly even grabbing two wins before the second weekend.

Sweet 16 Matchups

By the time the Sweet 16 rolls around, expect the cream to rise. Auburn’s combination of top-tier offense and defense makes them a clear favorite against Texas A&M, whose overall efficiency can’t quite keep pace. Meanwhile, Iowa State and Michigan State square off in a clash of top-10 KenPom squads. These are matchups where statistical balance and high-end ratings often spell the difference—so don’t be shocked if the slight edge in efficiency gives Iowa State the nod to advance.

Elite Eight Forecast

If the numbers hold, Auburn will meet Iowa State for a trip to the Final Four. Here, KenPom’s analytical edge shines: Auburn’s mix of offensive firepower and defensive grit sets them apart, justifying a pick to get through even a well-rounded Iowa State team. Remember, both teams are top-10 caliber on KenPom, so this showdown should be more nail-biter than rout.

The overarching lesson? In the South region, favor efficiency, balance, and KenPom alignment over seed numbers or reputation—and be ready for one or two analytics-approved upsets.

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Using KenPom for Bracket Building Strategies

So you’ve got the basics – now how do you actually apply KenPom to fill out your bracket (and maybe win that office pool)?

• Trust the Efficiency Rankings: Start by pencilling the Sweet 16 with teams ranked highly in KenPom. It won’t be perfect, but you’re anchoring your bracket in statistical reality, not just AP rankings or gut feel. Remember, since 2008, 90% of Final Four teams were KenPom top-20 squads. That’s a trend you want to ride, not fight.

Projected Final Four Teams for 2025

With all that in mind, let’s put some names to those coveted Final Four slots. According to the latest projections and efficiency metrics, the teams most likely to make a deep run are:

• Alabama (East)
• Tennessee (Midwest)
• Auburn (South)
• St. John’s (West)

Don’t be surprised if these squads headline your bracket come April. They each combine strong KenPom numbers with the kind of balanced play that historically wins when the lights are brightest.

• Target Balanced Teams: If a team is top-10 in AdjO and AdjD, they’re a juggernaut – those are championship ingredients. If they’re elite on one end but merely good (or average) on the other, figure out if their strength can outweigh their weakness. Often, one elite unit is enough for a deep run – e.g., a team with a killer offense and mediocre defense can outscore foes, or vice versa. But the further a team goes, the more likely they’ll face someone who can exploit that weakness. Be wary by the Elite Eight and beyond.

• Find Mis-seeded Teams: Use KenPom to find value seeds. In 2024, Michigan State was a #7 seed but KenPom #18 – a 9-seed strength. Picking them to upset higher seeds (which they’re statistically equal to) is savvy. Likewise, be skeptical of teams seeded #5 or #6 that KenPom rates outside the top 30 – historically those teams underperform (No. 5/6 seeds outside KenPom’s top 30 had just a 10-12 combined record in first-round games over a recent span).

• Beware the “Luck” Outliers: If a team’s record is way better than their efficiency (KenPom’s Luck metric high), consider fading them earlier than consensus. They may have been lucky in close games or benefited from hot shooting nights that may not sustain under pressure.

• First-Round Giant Killers: Identify a few underdogs with top-50 KenPom profiles facing overseeded favorites outside the top 25 or 30. When a supposed “mismatch” is actually pretty even efficiency-wise, the stage is set for an upset.

West Region: Who Advances, and Why?

Let’s break down which squads are most likely to make noise out West—and more importantly, why they’ve earned your trust on this treacherous road to the Final Four.

First Round: Favor the Blue Bloods and Hidden Gems
Expect little drama for the top seeds early: Florida and St. John’s boast the kind of elite efficiency (hello, KenPom top-5) that chews up lesser foes. Connecticut and Kansas, both with robust recent postseason track records, are well-positioned to fend off trickier mid-tier matchups.

When it comes to upsets, keep an eye on value: Colorado State outpaces Memphis on the KenPom efficiency charts, giving them just the right combination of strength and statistical edge to make 12-over-5 a reality. Missouri’s completeness shines against a streaky Drake, while Texas Tech’s stifling defense is simply too much for UNC-Wilmington.

Second Round: Let Efficiency Do the Talking
Here, the favorites stamp their authority. Four of the nation’s top-12 KenPom teams share this bracket quadrant, and their blend of offensive and defensive efficiency should propel them forward. Florida handles Connecticut in a clash of styles, while Maryland’s balance gives them the upper hand over upset-minded Colorado State. Texas Tech keeps its composure against Missouri, and St. John’s has the horses to outpace Kansas.

Sweet 16: Offense vs. Defense, The Plot Thickens
In these matchups, the differences become clear: Florida’s up-tempo attack likely overpowers a disciplined Maryland, while St. John’s—masters of defensive havoc—are poised to stifle Texas Tech. When efficiency rules the day, the teams adept at both scoring and string-stopping tend to shine.

Elite Eight: Clash of the Titans
When Florida’s nation-leading offense tangles with St. John’s top-ranked defense, something has to give. History (and the KenPom spreadsheet) says when push comes to shove, the team that can string together stops has the edge. Don’t be surprised when St. John’s slams the door and books their trip to the Final Four.

West Region: First-Round Picks and Potential Cinderellas

Looking at the West, chalk largely rules the day—both Florida and St. John's project as heavyweights that shouldn’t break a sweat early on. The top-seeded Gators have a mismatch against Norfolk State, while St. John’s—armed with their KenPom bona fides—should cruise past Omaha.

For the mid-tier chaos seekers, keep your eye on Colorado State. They carry a stronger efficiency resume than Memphis and fit the classic KenPom-approved “dangerous double-digit seed.” Sharp bracket builders will circle this as an upset special.

Rounding out the early matchups:

• UConn’s pedigree should get them past Oklahoma in the always-tough 8/9.
• Maryland looks too balanced for Grand Canyon to pull an upset.
• Missouri and Texas Tech each have favorable paths, squaring off against teams with clear statistical gaps.
• Expect Kansas to ride their tournament experience past Arkansas.

Overall, lean into KenPom’s numbers to wade through the noise—especially when you see a power mid-major lurking near the top 50, ready to spoil a higher seed’s party.

Midwest Region: Forecasting the Chaos

Now for the juicy part—how might the Midwest region actually unfold with KenPom as your compass? Here’s how the matchups might break, factoring in efficiency rankings, a few eyebrow-raising seeds, and those delectable upset vibes we all crave in March.

Second Round Shakeups

• A top-10 KenPom heavyweight lurking as an 8-seed? That’s Gonzaga, and they’re primed to challenge Houston’s top billing. Think of this less as a David vs. Goliath, and more like heavyweight-on-heavyweight—the numbers say this could go either way.
• Clemson and Purdue? Flip a coin, but Clemson’s sneaky profile means they’re not just a bystander.
• Illinois sits right behind Kentucky in KenPom’s top 20, making an Illini upset more a math play than a miracle.
• Tennessee, as a 2-seed, gets a manageable path—especially if they avoid a slugfest with Kentucky.

Sweet 16 Scenarios

• Gonzaga’s balanced attack makes them a bracket buster, and with momentum, they could topple Clemson—proving once again that seed is just a number when the efficiency gods are on your side.
• Tennessee benefits from bypassing a clash with Kentucky, leaning on their stifling defense to keep Illinois in check.

Elite Eight Outlook

• If Tennessee and Gonzaga square off, the Vols’ defensive tenacity sets them up to finally halt Gonzaga’s run. This projects as a classic—offense vs. Defense—but the analytics side with Tennessee suffocating their way to the Final Four.

In short: Expect the unexpected, trust the numbers, and don’t be afraid to pencil in a few bold upsets in your Midwest region. When the dust settles, don’t be shocked to see Tennessee emerging as the data darling among giants.

East Region: Round-by-Round Picks and KenPom Insights

Curious who’s cutting down nets in the East? Let’s walk through a KenPom-fueled forecast, round by round, highlighting the key edges and potential pitfalls for every matchup.

First Round Predictions

• Duke (No. 1) cruises past the play-in opponent—no drama required.
• Baylor (No. 9) gets the nod over Mississippi State; the KenPom advantage is clear.
• Oregon (No. 5) and Arizona (No. 4) each bring too much firepower for their double-digit seeded foes.
• Looking for an early upset? VCU and BYU are so close in KenPom that it’s a true coin flip—lean VCU as the sharp value.
• Wisconsin and Saint Mary’s both land in favorable spots and should advance with relative comfort.
• Alabama (No. 2) safely handles Robert Morris, with little sweat involved.

Second Round Shakeout

• Duke over Baylor: Even with some Blue Devil health questions, their two-way efficiency is too much for Baylor to match.
• Arizona edges out Oregon; the Wildcats’ balance on both ends gives them the upper hand over their former conference rival.
• Wisconsin moves past VCU by leveraging an offensive edge.
• Alabama advances past Saint Mary’s—the Crimson Tide offense is built for March.

Sweet 16 Showdowns

• Duke topples Arizona: Elite defense is the Blue Devils’ trump card here.
• Alabama edges Wisconsin: Even against a stingy defense, Alabama’s scoring arsenal proves the difference.

Elite Eight Decision

• Alabama over Duke: With both teams boasting top-tier offenses, Alabama’s attack and the possibility of Duke’s nagging health issues help tip the scales.

Bottom line? KenPom leans towards Alabama as the last team standing in the East, fueled by offensive firepower and a couple key matchup breaks along the way.

East Region: First-Round Predictions and Rationale

Let’s break down the East region’s opening games and where KenPom’s insights tilt the scales:

• Duke vs. American/Mt. St. Mary's: Duke, simply put, isn’t sweating this play-in matchup. The Blue Devils’ elite efficiency numbers make a 16-over-1 upset far-fetched—expect them to cruise.

• Baylor vs. Mississippi State: Baylor earns the nod as the more efficient squad according to KenPom’s metrics, giving them the edge over Mississippi State.

• Oregon vs. Liberty & Arizona vs. Akron: Oregon and Arizona both boast clear statistical superiority in their respective matchups. Look for both favorites to handle business and advance.

• VCU vs. BYU: If you’re hunting for a true toss-up, here’s your spot. With VCU and BYU close in KenPom’s top 30 rankings, this is prime “11 over 6” upset territory. VCU’s defensive chops offer just enough bite for a bracket-busting pick.

• Wisconsin vs. Montana: Wisconsin, thanks to a big KenPom gap, should take care of Montana without much drama.

• Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt: Saint Mary's landed a favorable opening draw and, with their efficiency edge, should outlast Vanderbilt.

• Alabama vs. Robert Morris: The 2-seed Alabama comes in as overwhelming favorite—no underdog heroics expected here.

So, in the East, lean on efficiency, eye that VCU-BYU potential upset, and don’t overthink the top seeds—they’re built to survive and advance.

Projected Final Four Matchups by Region

If you’re mapping out who might still be standing come April, the current KenPom and betting consensus points squarely at these regional champs:

• East: Alabama
• Midwest: Tennessee
• South: Auburn
• West: St. John’s

Not exactly your grandfather’s blue blood lineup—this year’s field could feature a blend of SEC firepower and a resurgent St. John’s making a deep Madison Square Garden run.

Final Four (and Betting) Bound: Putting It All Together

KenPom won’t predict every upset or guarantee a winning bracket – that’s the beauty of March Madness. But it arms you with data-driven insight to make educated picks rather than guesses. Think of KenPom as that sharp friend who watches every game and gives you the honest rundown of each team’s strengths and flaws.

Now, ready to put these insights to work? Check out the latest KenPom rankings HERE. For most fans, basic metrics like team efficiencies and ratings are available for free right on the KenPom site. If you’re looking to dive deeper into advanced statistics, a subscription unlocks the full analytics arsenal for just $24.95 per year—a small price for serious bracketologists and sharp bettors seeking every edge.

As you refine your bracket and lock in your bets, remember to leverage the tools at your disposal. Betstamp PRO can elevate your betting research even further – allowing you to be first to off-market edges. For the normal bettor, the free Betstamp app is your best friend to shop for the best odds across sportsbooks, so when you do spot a KenPom-driven value bet, you maximize your payout. Smart bettors don’t just pick winners; they ensure they get the best price on them. Betstamp makes that easy.

This March Madness, don’t rely on luck alone. Harness KenPom’s analytics to make sharper bets, and let Betstamp PRO and the Betstamp app help you find those winning edges. Your bracket (and bankroll) will thank you when the nets are cut down.

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