00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off. It's a continuation of last week's episode, more Q&A. You had a ton of questions via Twitter, via YouTube. We're going to dive into all of them and more. This week's Circles Off starts now. Come on, let's go. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 97, here on the Circles Off YouTube channel, available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts as well. Part of the Hammer Betting Network Rob Pizzola, johnny from BetStab, number 97. 

00:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Episode 97, don't need to get into it. Connor McDavid, one of the best hockey players of the generation, hasn't even been started yet. Hasn't even got started yet. Hasn't even won a cup yet. Maybe this year probably not Leaves the win in the cup anyways, moving on, last part we last week we had a question and answer episode. We got through about half the questions. We are back this week to answer the rest. 

00:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We are going to get right into it after a word from our sponsor of course, if you're going to be betting on sports, pinnacle is the world's sharpest sports book, now available to bettors in ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades. Pinnacle is where available to bettors in ontario. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades. Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus not available in the us and, of course, as always, we preach it every single episode. Please, please, please, play responsibly. 

01:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's get into it question number one, the old guessing game rob. How many just pro gamblers are there? In the united states and canada, only source of income is gambling, no pick selling or anything of that sort over or under 500. And before you answer that second question, how many legitimate professional bettors would you estimate there are in North America? How many have social media? Sorry, europe, no one cares about you since you have weird odds anyways. So we'll sum those into one question, which is basically how many pro bettors are there? 

01:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've tried to enlist the help of chat GPT and there's no reliable way to determine the exact number of professional bettors in North America. Okay, someone asked about 500, definitely over. 

02:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, here's the thing. What do you consider a professional better? He says here, only source of income is gambling, only source. And also, how long do you have to sustain that Cause? That's another thing. If you told me how many professional bettors are going to have their only source of gambling, the only source of income, be gambling this year, in 2023, then the answer is definitely over 500. However, if you're going to tell me, like, how many of those people are going to have a 10 over 10 years to stay in, that answer significantly lower agreed with both points. 

02:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know, but like here's the I I don't make a hundred percent of my income from sports betting. Does that? I'm not. I'm no longer considered a professional. 

02:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Better, that's another thing Like only source of income is gambling is tough Cause like then, yeah, what, like what if you? 

02:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
have, yeah, yeah, I do content where I get paid, not with the hammer, but with other companies $5 at radio spots. 

03:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Does that count now? 

03:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know I do stuff where I get paid Cause I mean, my time is valuable, let's call it out for what it is. You know you also enjoy doing that stuff too. I love it, man. I love doing content I do. It's why we do this show. 

03:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So okay, here's what I'll say. Then there are a lot. There's way more people than 500 that make money gambling, and of those, I think if you're going to say how many just make money gambling, it's still over 500, be it under 10 000 to give some context there. Not that that's that helpful of a range, but I'd say, yeah. If you're going to then say, though, how many people are going to have like a 10-year career where they can make money betting over 10 years, then the number is significantly lower, probably around 3,300. 

03:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's. I mean, I think it's even higher. I honestly do it's not that hard. 

03:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Now people on the thing are like well, look at these guys. 

03:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, no, no, sorry, listen, scaling is hard right, and I think there's like a lot of people too who will just like leave their job because they have a significant edge and they'll earn. And then they'll realize, oh, I can't earn as much anymore because I'm cut off from all these places and I have to get and it becomes. But there's enough people that are doing it and can do it in a limited time that I think the number is always going to be higher than that. Personally, I mean, I don't know if I ever told you this story. Guy literally lives down the street from me who I thought was working in fire sales. He used to tell people I'm over at his place, like fire sales, like what did you sell? Smoke alarms or whatever. This guy knows who I am and he's like Rob, come here, go into his office. Like six monitors set up, don Best, whatever he's like. This is what I got to tell people because you know they don't want like they exist everywhere. People exist. There's bettors everywhere that are doing well for themselves. 

04:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Agreed, agreed. There's a lot. 

05:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And it happens because, like like, even if 1% of bettors win, and even, let's say, 1% of those bettors can do it professionally, that's still way more than 500. 

05:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Of course, and, by the way, I wasn't including Europe or anything like that. 

05:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't include Europe because they're decimal odds. 

05:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, technically, canada, I think some people think is decimal odds. 

05:21 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, I'm definitely not. It's most certainly not Most certainly it is not. 

05:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But any of those, any sports books that launched in the Ontario market and put the default as decimal odds, what are you doing? Like it's not decimal odds, we don't play decimal odds Also. 

05:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say, though I take offense to it being called American odds. 

05:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
North American. 

05:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
North American odds. North American odds odds. North american, north american odds. North american odds yeah, I mean like pet peeve of mine, obviously, if you're going to enter a market, like try to understand the bettors that are in that market, like the. 

05:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The primary way to bet nhl is not the regulation three-way money line no, I know exactly which book you're talking about. 

06:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I won won't mention by name, but like just understand. Like the market it's like a prerequisite of entering a market is understanding the clientele and like what they're looking for. Like I'm sorry I'm not gonna bet, like live Swedish illiterian hockey because I bet on the NHL. Like you do not have to force feed me a live betting at every single point. Like just show me what I'm going to bet or what's the most common bets. 

06:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, bet an over six and a half NHL total game goes three, three into OT. You check the loss. They didn't even specify regular 60 minute regulation, only Like what's going on. So there, there you go. No, I agreed on that, all right. Similar topic, you know, fits right in here what percentage of sports bettors win long term versus what percentage of sports bettors think they are long term winners? I'm sure you've heard plenty on it, but the Barry Horse pot is exceptional. Keep up the great work, rob. I'm such a big fan and I hope to meet you one day. I'm sure you just added that. 

07:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I did just add that I don't have that. 

07:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So I don't know yeah. 

07:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think that either became through YouTube or came through direct Twitter DMS. I did add that at the end. I mean listen, if you want to meet me someday, it's not that hard. I'm around, I tell people where I'm going. I'll be at Bet Bash 3. It's a great opportunity to sit down and have a beer. Hopefully you're buying, though not me, Depends on how the week goes. 

07:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Well, the guy who bought it, Somebody asked where are we eating at Bet Bash? So there you go. 

07:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I guess we did answer his question, bro. That place in what restaurant? Oh amazing something ate. 

07:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's phenomenal the brisket fried rice, the brisket fried rice. 

07:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Dude bet, like haru, showed me that place where what a spot benson, I'll see you at, I'll see you there. That's it. Eight east, eight east eight east. 

08:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What a spot also because circa actually you know what no circus got in house food's, got in-house food. You got to order the food from there. If you're at the book order the food from there. We got you, benson. 

08:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who's the COO of VEASAN? What's his name? Bill? I'm trying to remember what his name is, Bill Ady. He's always hanging out with Derek Stevens at Circa. And what's the steakhouse? Barry's. 

08:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Barry's, barry's Great place as well. 

08:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I mentioned last time I was in Vegas. I was there with Chernoff and a few other betting partners just hanging around, played some rounds of golf. But we were going to Barry's one night and Bill Ad overheard me and he's like what are you, are you? What are you gonna order there? Like I don't know it's probably a food tower, get a steak or whatever. 

08:50
See, I'm a I'm a fan of seafood towers, as you know and as I know of you. But he's like, listen, he's like it's bill ad. By the way, I'm pretty sure he lives in circa, like he's. He lives in the I the. I'm serious, he lives in the hotel, right, I think. I don't know if I'm supposed to disclose that or whatever, it doesn't matter. He's like, trust me, it's really. It's going to sound really, really dumb, but you got to try the burger he's like at Barry's. At Barry's, he's like I go here all the time. The burger is the best burger around. I'm a type of guy Judge me, however you want Going to a steakhouse and ordering a burger. I'm like a little bit embarrassed. Yeah, I'm doing so, but the burger at Barry's is phenomenal. Okay, like you should, really, I know, and I'm sure, like you know, the way, I'm not gonna get it still, no, no I know the waiter's probably there's like, oh yeah, fucking cheap, cheapskate, fucking burger or whatever, but like it's, it's amazing. 

09:57
Anyways, circle resort check it out. 

10:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you're in vegas, so maybe a barry's burger is where we're going. Uh, what percentage of bettors win long term versus what percentage think they win long-term? So I would say it really drastically depends on what you consider to be long-term, and that is what I was getting into in the last question. Is winning over a 10-year span 0.1%, less than 0.1%? Winning over a one-year span is the variance alone. There will be a lot of people, a very high percentage of people, that will win over a one-year span just based on luck, even if they potentially don't have an edge. So if you're asking what percentage of sports bettors win will win money over the next three years, I will say it's probably going to be 15 to 20%. Will win money over the next three years? I will say it's probably going to be 15 to 20. Will win money over the next three years. That doesn't mean they're winning bettors, just means they will win. How many of those will win over a 10-year sample? 

10:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
not very much I would agree with a lot of that. So pretty much right on the. I'm more in. I'm more interested in the, the latter half of that question, like what percentage of people actually think that they win? Yeah, probably like 40. 

11:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Who bet? 

11:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Who was it that said you think it's over 40, Zach? 

11:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, probably. 

11:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I think more than 40% of people think that they win. 

11:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I know a lot of people who know they lose betting and they're just like. 

11:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm going to hit one of these parlays. 

11:25
Sure Okay, but is it? Yes, there's definitely people like that that they know that they lose and they're just trying to hit a big parlay or whatever. But there's also the like the people that are in denial, like they know that they're losing, they know that money's coming out of their bank account but they think that, like it's just bad luck, it's all gonna turn. It's been bad luck for the last 6.9 years for a lot of these people that's why I think it's way more than 40 percent, like literally. 

11:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Just take a scroll through gambling twitter and then tell me that percentage is I've got. 

11:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I've got a running joke here in the office. What we say is um, if you ask somebody if they're up or down betting, you always gotta ask lifetime, right? So you say so. Let's say someone talks about betting. They're like yeah, I have this way, I win, I win, I win, whatever. If you ask them, are you up or down lifetime? They're either going to say one of two things. They are going to say I'm up lifetime, which may or may not be accurate, or they will say lifetime I'm about even break even. I'm about break even lifetime, yeah. 

12:25
And if they say they're about break even lifetime, you best believe they're down like oh yeah there's absolutely no way they're up lifetime if they say they're break even lifetime if you don't know if you're up lifetime. 

12:37
It's a dead giveaway that you don't know, like you don't know about there's one I think one time in my life I've asked that to someone and they told me they were down lifetime and the the way that in which they said it was amazing, it was a. It was at a raps game and just sitting beside another guy, we ended up just by chance we had the same bet. It was like the under for the game or something, and, um, because we had the same bet, he had it like two points worse. So we were sweating it out hard, but I I had the extra two points and it came down to a free throw at the end. But he missed his free throw. So my bet was already good, but that was to cash his. 

13:15
He was going nuts. He gets up, starts yelling like 500 bucks, let's go, like he won whatever. And he's like I hit 500. Like check on my account. He's showing me his account. He's up to like maybe three or four thousands. He had just hit a parlay the day before he was showing me too. He had a 4x here and he's like I figured it out. Now I know how to beat nba. You got to do this, this and this. He's like telling me what to do all this stuff. And then I'm like hey, are you? Are you up or down? Like lifetime, are you up or down? And he's like lifetime, lifetime, lifetime. Everyone's down, bro. That's what he said to me, and I never respected a guy at a Raps game beside me, more than that, but you notice how he lumped other people in with him, though. 

13:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, yeah, he didn't say it. He's right though. 

13:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean for the most part, he is right. 

13:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I had someone on this weekend for the first time ever tell me that they were down all time losing. 

14:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But it's a rarity. 

14:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, and it was like the most honest answer, and there's someone. I know is winning now you guys know them too, but they were like yep down, down lifetime, not good, and I was like no way Down, bad lifetime buddy. 

14:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But to Zach's point, if you just scroll through gambling Twitter, like it's actually a little bit different I saw I'll hesitate there, because gambling Twitter has like an element of people are promoting themselves in a lot of places. They try to, you know, trying to monetize their brands, whatever I get it. How many, what percentage of the people that think that they win on gambling Twitter or tell people that they win they're doing the money bags and check marks and what you know, up 35 units or whatever actually like, are self-aware enough to know that they don't? That's what I've always. I'm fascinated. Yeah, like this needs to be like some sort of Netflix documentary where they follow these bettors around. I don't really know the answer to that. Like, do a lot of people know that they're scamming or do they believe what they're preaching? What's the majority? 

15:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
That's a good question. Well, I would say this too, like to Rob's point the loudest people on gambling Twitter are the people who win the most and the people who lose the most. And to both people on Gambling Twitter, at least, they both win Publicly. Make it like they win, you know what? 

15:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I completely get it. Listen, I'm not saying people can't promote themselves or shouldn't promote themselves or whatever, but it's very obvious that the vast majority of people don't win. Yet if you were to just from the outside, looking in going to gambling twitter, you would think the complete opposite. Based off of the recaps and whatever, it's very interesting space. I think more people actually believe that they win than like know that they're scamming. 

16:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I agree with that too. 

16:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's really hard for you to admit I'm just going to come across so poorly. It's really hard for you to admit that you're a loser. It is. I had to admit that to myself at some point. It took many years of giving away envelopes of money to just say, like Rob, what the hell are you doing? Like the envelopes are not coming to you. 

16:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You know it's, it's like you are going to lose if you keep doing. 

16:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Thursday's payday I got to, I got to pay. Friday, I get the money. It's like you know. There's a lot more Thursdays that I'm meeting up than Fridays Like I need to, but it took a long time to come to that realization and I think that's common. 

16:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I really do All right Up. Next question from Ben Carey, a friend of the show what sport will be more popular to watch and bet on in three years? Pickleball, slam ball, volleyball. 

17:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I don't even know what slam ball is. It's a trampoline basketball. Okay, I don't even know what slam ball is. It's a trampoline basketball. Okay, so I'm going to say it won't be volleyball, because volleyball has been around for a long time. And no offense, listen, I play volleyball too. Add in World. 

17:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Putting League to this, is that number one. 

17:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It might be. We're taking World Putting League to the top. We are taking World Putting League to the top. We are taking World Putting League April 20th. I'm going to show these jabronis on tour how you putt in Myrtle Beach. Have we announced it yet? At the Hawaiian Rumble, I'm coming to play. 

17:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm going to get smoked. Is this the? 

17:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
first announcement Johnny. 

17:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I haven't have. We announced this publicly on the Hammer yet. Did I miss it or is it out? 

17:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's knowledge, it's out there. 

17:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Rob is going to be competing in the. 

17:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Myrtle Beach? I don't even know mini putt open in front of the people of the world, putting these. He's going to be in the field. Rob will be competing for the prize money and for good news for the listeners of circles off. 

18:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, there's a bet. 

18:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fred will be listing odds as the official sponsor will be listing odds and we are working on getting odds listed from a majority or a few other books that we can cover the majority of regions, Meaning wherever you are located. We are hoping that you will be able to play and support or fade, which I would highly recommend. I cannot wait. 

18:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I cannot wait to close as an underdog in all these markets. 

18:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's going to get smashed, the other guy's going to get first of all first and foremost, anyone who's concerned about integrity. 

18:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You don't know how badly I want to win at something like this. So, like that's never going to, I'm sure there's gonna be questions. Oh, like Rob, we're gonna throw the events. It's like no, no, it's not. Jeff Feinberg is joining me out there. Fellow Hammer creator. I love Jeff. I've known him for a long time. We're gonna have a blast. Hopefully there's some head as well. We talked on a circles off episode about the world putting league. Didn't I get some emails from guys in the world putting league that are like you guys are out to lunch? He's like yeah, okay, we're not the best putters in the world. We know these courses like the back of our, our hands, basically. 

19:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And on top of that, Rob, there's a guy who putts with his shoe. 

19:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I can putts with his shoe? I I'm gonna be. Are you gonna be a dog to that guy? I'm gonna close as an underdog to that guy. I'm gonna close his underdog with his shoe. 

19:29
Listen, he's a metal plate on his shoe and he putts with his foot I'm trying to temper expectations here, but listen what I was saying begging everyone back, pazola what I was told was that a lot of the putts as they appear on the broadcast are actually way harder than they look. Like the Hawaiian Rumble course was rejigged for the events that were happening there and you'll sometimes see like a three or four foot putt and someone will miss it and you were. You know, I'm doing a live watch along. I'm like, oh, tony Varnador, like Tony, tony, and I'm getting messages like that's actually, like there's actually break on that putt. 

20:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like he should hit it. That's what I would say, too, if I was missing those putts. 

20:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He should hit it for sure, but there's actually break on those putts, so I don't know what to expect. These people fly out early for these events. Am I going to compete with that? I don't know, but I'm looking to make the cut. That's what I'm looking to do. 

20:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What I really hope happens is and again, I'm not rooting against you in any way- Against huh. 

20:31
I really hope that one of two things happen. I hope either Pazola is actually in it and he's competing in the bracket and we have an actual sweat and he wins some of his matchups, or I hope he goes dead last by like 23 strokes and he's just struggling to finish the course. Either one of those would make for great content. I'll be doing a live stream during the event. We're gonna get some other creators on as well to do an amazing live stream. But, uh, this should be a lot of fun. But yeah, I really, I truly hope one of I. I would prefer that you win it and that would be just unbelievable, but but if not, I prefer you're just so far behind that it's just hilarious to watch. 

21:09 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So for anybody who wants to go and see what the last one looked like, or they're curious to maybe handicap some of this, look at the other players. If you Google World Putting League, then some of the top YouTube results are the Hammer Betting Network streams. You can see Rob commentating and roasting some of these guys as they competed on the last track, uh. You can also go over to the hammer hq youtube channel. In the live watch along section you'll be able to see the world putting league. There's two different videos there, so one is day one, one is day two. 

21:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Obviously, uh, but that's a good way for you to uh prep, prep for that, if that's what something this is, um, this is like I went into that watch along, like I'm not gonna try to roast these guys too hard, like they're, they're putters, they take this seriously and I didn't. But like there was a few comments that I made that like karma is gonna catch up to me. I consider myself to be a fairly good putter, but it's different, like I will explain. It's like if you've golfed with me, you both golfed with me, you both golf with me, I can putt Golf with Rob multiple times. 

22:08 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's not bad, he's not good, he's there. 

22:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, but like I can put a ball down on, I can read a putt, I can put a ball down on a line and I can hit the ball on that line. You're no Nate Dogg. No one will get this. References, nate Dogg, if you're listening. May God have mercy on your soul, like if you're. If you are in a four man scramble and you're the first putter every time, you cannot leave every putt like six feet short. You cannot do this. You have to give the read to the other people. It is the rule of the scramble the guy who's going first, even if you're a shit putter, you just got to give everyone else the read. You cannot leave every putt short. My God, nate Dog, how is that even possible? How, every hole, you can complain oh the green, they're not running as fast. Hit the ball harder on the next hole. Hit the ball harder. 

23:04
Sorry, went off on a tangent there. It's different when you're playing mini golf, mini putt, and you're using a ball where there's no, you can't. You know you can't line it up. There's no markers on the ball. This is a different thing for me. Like I'm not listen, I know it sounds like I'm making excuses. I'm not trying to make excuses as we're. I'm watching video of of this guy kicking the ball into the hole. 

23:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I mean that was pretty straight. What are the odds? 

23:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
rob rob makes the cut, I don't know what do you think it's going to? 

23:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
be so what would you price yourself? 

23:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so there's actually three cuts. So it's a, it's a, it's all in one day. There's the first round. I believe there's 39 golfers and the field gets weeded down to like 30. So I think the first nine get cut. Because you're playing in threesomes, Will Rob be in the first nine cut? I man that I would say. That's probably even money Personally. By the way, here's the email that Joey Graybeal sent me. Okay, Sorry, Joey, for violating your trust and reading this on air. Basically, you know. Thank you very much for doing the broadcast. 

24:11
Most players will arrive three to five days before the tournaments. Olivia usually arrives two to three weeks before to practice. Olivia is the best player on tour. She's the favorite in all these events, so she's arriving earlier Makes it very hard to beat her. This is my favorite sentence. Your buddy on the podcast saying he will make the cut without practice has lost his mind. Literal sentence. If he can putt, he would need a lot of time getting the speed right and even then I really doubt he makes the cut. These guys are really good and there were numerous great players that are not even here because they just took a certain number of players for this tournament. I'd love to see you guys on the course. So you and I he's lumped me in on his team, by the way can take your buddy's money. This is what he said. Keep up the great work. We're going to get Johnny out to one of these events. But this guy took a liking to me because he's got a claw grip thing. 

25:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I was calling him the claw on the broadcast and he's. He's a big fan, but I did love that he said you've lost your mind. 

25:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Like, listen, that's self-confidence. You know what I'll. I will give an honest assessment when I'm back, you'll see it, you'll see it live of whether or not I. I think I could you, you bring me me to putting edge glow in the dark down the street where I know the course I'll tear it up. 

25:32 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, how about this? When Pozzola comes back, we'll do a head-to-head me versus him at putting edge. Yeah, if he makes the cut and I beat him at putting edge, then it was safe to say I would have made the cut yes agreed done deal. 

25:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm not playing the course. It's the transitive property. It's not really like it's, but we'll let that happen. We'll let that happen. 

25:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We'll assume that that's like okay, a fair ben kerry to answer your question. 

25:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're gonna go pickleball uh, yeah, like I, I would say probably pickleball. Pickleball is gaining steam, right. 

26:06 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, of course, Like volleyball the other two are not that big of people. Lebron has a team, kevin Durant has a team. 

26:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Volleyball's been around for like 20 years and again, apologies to the volleyball players out there but like if it hasn't picked up steam yet, it's probably not happening for volleyball no good, probably. 

26:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's probably not happening for volleyball. No good, no good, all right. Are there any signals to help figure out when a market is being? 

26:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
manipulated and the line movement is bogus um signals. So I would say that you can ease. It doesn't happen very much anymore, like almost, at least in the sports that I bet almost never um, partly because so many people bet on screen nowadays. So what I say, that is like Pinnacle, for example. Somebody goes and tries to fake the line. This means that they're trying to move the line in the direction, the opposite direction of what they want to bet, so that everybody else who's just copying Pinnacle's lines are going to move as well. And this applies to other sports books as well Circa, obviously, betchris, offshore, but with the goal that they place a smaller bet, move the entire market and then crush the other side for a lot of money. And this used to happen a lot. 

27:19
But there's just people out there there's like so many people betting on screen now that people just pick off the prices right away, like it's hard to fake the market and have it last for as long as you need for all the other outs to move and for you to hit it back the other way. I'm not saying it never happens, but it just doesn't happen anywhere close to the way it used to. Typically people that are in tune with the market, and watching it every day would very much be able to figure this out, because they tend to happen at the same times regularly. I mean, we used to have these discussions all the time with hockey bets. It's like we're going to fake the market at this time because no one's paying attention. Okay, try it. It works for a while. After a month, someone figures it out and they just start hitting back all the place. So I would say that there's no telltale signal other than just like being intuitive. 

28:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like. One thing that you could look for, I guess, to provide something quantifiable is like when the limits are lowest is when it's most likely, and then, when the limits are higher, it's going to be less likely. So you can probably what you should do is take a look at when the limits at pinnacle or the other sports books are going to go up, and if you can identify that the limits go up around 10 o'clock, then you could best believe that the manipulation will likely happen before 10 o'clock. Yep, all right, so that's it. That's it for that one. I'm not sure it was the best answer, but what do you think there? 

28:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, no, that's the case. It's different. The market is different, right Five years ago when we were betting like hockey in the mornings, holy, you move a number and it's stuck around for half an hour and you can bet all the off-screen outs and then pound, pound, pinnacle back. The other way it just doesn't happen anymore. Like nobody wants to waste money faking a line if somebody is just going to hit it back right away. So I mean my. You know, if you're looking out for it every line move, you'll just notice it Like honestly. If you're looking out for it every line move, you'll just notice it Like honestly. If you're just watching the screen, if you've got spank odds up in front of you or whatever, you're watching the screen on a daily basis. You see big moves, mark down the time, see if they get hit back the other way. They're probably all like legit moves nowadays. 

29:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough, hey, fellas. Clv question. Hypothetical situation If you were able to, let's say, bet an NBA team at Pick'em and the game closed minus two and a half, how likely am I to turn a profit doing that over and over? How confident are you in the amount of value guaranteeing long-term dollars? So a little bit of a weird question here, but this one you could very easily quantify in this situation. So what you would do is you would take the pick'em, which is a money line price, and what you would do is you would then take that money line price and compare it against what the closing money line price is, which is the two and a half converted to money line. So you can also just check the money line. You don't even have to do calculations. In this scenario. If you wanted to do calculations of, like, pick them to two and a half, how much is that worth? There's a lot of things that get factored into that, but you could potentially use the unabated price comparison tool that they've got that actually shows the difference in value there. You could also use the CLV calculator on Betstamp as well. You can track your bet at pick them. When it closes two and a half, you can see how much clv you have there, but what you're going to want to do in terms of confidence in how much you're going to guarantee long-term money, I would say this a if you do this over and over again, you will make money with a little variance and a large enough sample size. 

30:58
B what you would do here is you take the money line price that you got. So let's say you got minus 110. Let's say the game closed and you take the pinnacle closing odds and it closed minus 150 plus 135. You would take the midpoint of that and it's just hypothetical obviously. Let's say the midpoint's minus 144, and then you would convert minus 144 to an actual win probability. Then you would stack that up against your minus 110. So what you've done is you've stripped out the juice and the vig from pinnacle, converted that to a win probability. For the simplicity of this, let's say it's 60%. And then you've got your minus 110, which, let's say, for the simplicity of this, would imply you know 54%. Then your expected edge there is going to be. Well, it's not quite this. You can use an edge calculator, but it's going to be one over, one minus the difference of that yes, I'm not going to add anything to that well 

31:55
said so, you would basically have a few percentage points every time and if you ended up making a hundred dollar bet on that, roughly on this, you're going to earn a couple percentage points. I'd have to actually calculate the math. Maybe we can actually link it in the show notes. I'll do it for everyone, but calculate the show notes. Have that there. You're making two bucks for every hundred dollars. 

32:18
Let's say, as you start to grow that and you know, start to see this like compound every single day and on every single game, and you have 100 down, then 200, 300, 400 per game. And then as you start to see this compound every single day and in every single game and you have 100 down, then 200, 300, 400 per game, and then as you start to actually grow that that is how you can sustainably build something that works for sports betting. And how confident am I in this? Extremely confident. I've done this, multiple people have done this that I know it works, it wins money and vice versa. 

32:45
If you're on the other end of this, then exact same thing is going to happen. If you're, if you continually lay minus 2.5 and the game closes, pick them, then you're not just going to lose your two percent, because there's the big involved as well that you're paid but you are going to then lose that same rough percentage and in theory, if this is the closing line value, you know, this is basically what closing line value is, but in theory, if you actually just take this whole scenario and map it out with a minus seven and a half to a minus five and a half for a spread, it's the exact same thing. You just have to figure out your percentages and overall, in the long run, you will win if you do this you didn't talk about how the public bet. 

33:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Percentages figure into this, though doesn't it does? 

33:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I did not talk about that right now. Like what? 

33:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
if 90 of the public is on the game, that's pick them, but closes minus two and a half. 

33:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is. This is a podcast. This might this will have a lot of like few. I don't. I don't want people to listen to these in three years and then it doesn't work anymore, so I will put this disclaimer in as of right now. You will win doing as of the time of recording as of the time of recording and as per anything you would have done in the past 10 years betting, you will win if you get this, it's true over a long market evolves. 

33:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So you never know, could just be some horse that you know, some whale that comes in. 

34:02 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know why I said horse. 

34:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's because of Barry Horses, our last episode or a couple episodes ago. A whale comes in the market, just has so much like infinite amount of money that the sports books have to move off the action regardless because of liability reasons. You never know. 

34:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You never know. You never know. Okay. Up next, tips for keeping accounts from getting limited or kicked off while still balancing what we want to get down on some very badly priced props in one specific market. Great chance here, okay. 

34:37
So here's what I'm thinking here is this I will give a one piece of real advice, and that is it the one piece of real advice, and that is it. 

34:48
The one piece of real advice is this if you see a clear mistake line at the sportsbook, it is in your best interest to not play that, and the reason why it's in your best interest to not play that is because it is going to be very obvious to the sportsbook who played that. 

35:01
Think about it if you were running a sports book and you accidentally put someone's you put Vlad Guerrero to hit a homer and instead of putting him at plus 400, you put him at plus 4,000. That is very clear as day that that is a mistake. They are highly likely to go in and take a look at all of the accounts of the players who bet that and be like, hey, this person took advantage of this. I would highly recommend you don't do that. That is the one piece of advice I will give on this. The second thing that we would like to give out today is, if you are getting limited on a sports book, you're going to take that money, you're going to withdraw it and you're going to deposit it at Pinnacle Sports, the world's sharpest sports book that doesn't limit any players. 

35:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Period, period. They even tell you how much you can bet on the games. Believe that. Believe that there's a sports book that tells you what you can bet on the games before you bet. It Doesn't give you a spinning wheel and then change the numbers on you or come back to you and say you can bet two dollars and 63 cents, but we have to refer the rest of your bet to this trader over here like which, by the way. 

36:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
when that happens, I refer to trader, every time out of spite, just to make them work, and you know they're not going to take it. 

36:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll place 200 bets over the course of that 15 minutes on stuff that I don't even have an edge on, just so that trader has to reject the remainder of the bet. And they will anyways too, which is the saddest thing, Use Pinnacle if you're in Ontario, 100% Super random super random question, I just want to add to one thing you're saying. 

36:34
I'm not. I'm going to give like a high level piece of advice really quickly on the limiting thing. I think what you said right at the end there is just the best. I cannot speak to how every individual sports book runs their trading operation. I've consulted for sports books, Granted. Have you consulted for some sports? Books in the past, by the way, Got to make it clear to new people who are watching. Sorry, just yeah, just confirming. Believe me, I don't want to say that every single time, but like people, are like oh, what makes? 

37:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
you call Philly. Godfather hired the detective to figure that out, oh of course, of course. 

37:09 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just want to make it clear to people that, like they're always like, oh, why are you qualified to say what's okay? Well, I mean, I've been in trading rooms for Super Bowls before. I see how things are run, I have some general idea. Not every sports book on the planet is run in the exact same way. We all know that. But from a pure logic perspective, if you're trying to have your account last at a sports book, put yourself in the shoes of if you were a trader. 

37:37
Most traders have some experience in the space Not everyone. There might be some junior traders who are still learning the ropes or whatever, but most traders at sports books have some experience. They have some way of identifying what kind of accounts are going to win in the long run. Think about it from the opposite point of view. If you were tasked with finding winning bettors and limiting them tasked with finding winning bettors and limiting them what things would you look for? What's the sign of a sharp, better, not that hard to do? Are some things going to work? Yes, are some things going to work at one book and not the other? Yes, are some things not going to work? Of course, but just put yourself in the mindset of the person who's doing the limiting and just work backwards. Best thing I could say fair enough, um up. 

38:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Next, quick one here. What is the sharpest book for league of legends? What sort of limits are they're taking? Uh, I I don't. Uh, you know, know too much about esports. I know rob doesn't as well. We know pinnacle had graduated their esports department. We had matt trenhale on the podcast. He too much about esports. I know Rob doesn't as well. We know Pinnacle had graduated their esports department. We had Matt Trenhale on the podcast. He used to manage esports and I do think that Pinnacle is quite sharp. Overall. I would say that they are the sharpest for esports, especially, you know, within the Ontario market here and within Canada. 

39:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And Marco Boom's no longer with the company, but he had a pretty significant impact on esports betting for Pinnacle. So I would agree with you. It's not because they're a sponsor of the show or anything like that. Generally speaking, they were very quick to market and especially during COVID we're taking very high limits on esports. That's the book, I would say. 

39:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, up next. I don't even know if we need to answer this one. What is the public side tax exactly? Keep hearing people say this Is it an actual thing? 

39:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
By the way, I want to say this it's sort of like. 

39:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Seems like it makes sense, which is why a lot of people say it. 

39:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But nobody, there's not a lot of people that. Whoever asked this question I'm sorry to call you out, I just like no he's looking to learn, he's not looking to say that it's a real thing. 

39:49
Sure, but if you actually look up public sides tax in quotations on Twitter, it's been said one time, and it was by Plus EV Analytics and it was the day before this question got brought in to us. Okay, so it's literally not everybody is saying it. It was in reference to one thing that Plus EV Analytics said, which was the national championship game between UConn and San Diego State. He said If you take UConn, you're paying a public tax. If you play UConn at a recreational book, you're paying public sides tax. And all that means is that the price at those books is steeper on UConn because the majority of bettors at that book are betting UConn. 

40:42
As we saw, it doesn't matter in a given game One of the best examples of, you know, square side versus sharp side or whatever like people get. So you know, people galaxy brain themselves into San Diego State just because, oh, the books are going to need the books are going to need San Diego State. It's like who cares who cares? You know what books hold on straight wagers. It's not a ton. They hold a lot on parlays and teasers and same game parlays and stuff like that. Like, stop caring about what other people bet. Anyways, that's the public side stacks, it's just recreational book, leaning towards one side because the majority of their player base is betting there. And guess what? Who's playing at recreational books? People who are generally not price sensitive, for the most part, and that's why it goes like that. 

41:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, this one comes from another friend of the show, jeff Benson, at Twitter. Jeff Benson, jeffrey Benson, 12, aka Jeff, aka Circa Sports Director of Operations. If you were running a sports book, what would your model be Sharp, soft combo and why? 

41:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I'm going to reference an offshore sports book here. I'm not promoting them. I don't suggest that you bet offshore if you can bet into regulated options, but in my opinion there's no one in the regulated market that is the equivalent of bet online in the offshore space. And when I say the equivalent of bet online, I mean a book that does a good job of catering both to recreational bettors and to sharper bettors. They do not have the highest limits in the world and two sharper bettors. They do not have the highest limits in the world. They do not have the limits of a circa, a pinnacle, that Chris, whatever, but they take a decent pop on a lot of stuff and they tend to not limit you unless you pick off like a really horrible line, as you mentioned, which every sports book frowns on that in general. So if I was running a sports book in the regulated space I'm not even joking I would get a team of people together and say let's replicate what bet online is doing in the regulated space, because I think that that type of sports book is going to appeal to the majority of betters, good props, offering you can still parlay, you can do everything you could do at a recreational book and they still give you a decent enough bet that if you were a winning better, you would play there, and we do see that. We do see tons of winning betters that play there. So your answer is combo. It's 100% combo. 

43:20
And there's risks when you bet in the offshore space, and I'm not saying that this is gonna happen, but there's no policing that goes on in the offshore world. Right Like theoretically I think it's extremely unlikely, but it's happened before where sportsbooks just close down shop and see you later. Your money's gone and you're out of there and you have no recourse for that. You have no appealing body. They just cancel one of your big winning bets and it disappears out of your account. You have no appealing body. So I don't want to promote an offshore sports book. In terms of you going to play there, I would highly suggest you stick in the regulated market if you can. With that said, I think that's the best model and we don't see it in the regulated space right now and honestly, I think if someone transition one of the big players transitions to that model, it's a highly successful one that will succeed in the long run fair enough. 

44:13 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Personally, what I would do is probably you know, I don't even know, honestly, I have no idea because I I don't know the the specific ins and outs of like what it takes to run the sharp model and how much you could actually earn on that and how many players would actually play there. So I truly think like I would need to actually look at like the backend data on a lot of these books and then make a decision off that I'm guessing right now. You know, I tend to agree with Rob. I think the offering is super important. 

44:39
I definitely wouldn't want to, like we talked about, with exchanges, like it's not feasible for a betting exchange currently to be your only sports book and it's just not reasonable to even have that as one of like your two. 

44:51
To get a betting exchange in, to fit it into your top, it would have to be like a top five. It has to be more of a four or five. So when I'm looking at this, I'd probably lean more towards something with a bit of a deeper offering where, towards something with a bit of a deeper offering where you could actually play a lot of like fun bets and stuff like that as well on top of you know, just overall being like, I think my main thing would be I would want to be super fair, like I would want to 100 no, probably no bad bet refunds or anything like that. But you better believe, like there is, we are never doing like. If I, if I ever ended up doing that which, by the way, I got absolutely zero plans to ever run or operate a sportsbook, no interest in that, but I would be a very, very fair operator like you're never gonna have a, like stupid player complaint like we talked about two-way lines posted. 

45:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Limits on things like these are things that are important it I'm answering this question without having, like, full visibility. We don't. We don't know what these books make. You know sharp books, what they're holding specifically, so on and so forth. But for me I think it's just like general basic economics, like let's try to appeal to as many different bettors as possible and capture the entire pie. That's's, that's my personal opinion. 

46:05
Second thing I would say is I don't I'm not going to give away an idea or whatever, but we're seeing books quote unquote books, prize picks, you know those types of models that are just like prop parlays and stuff like that that are starting to take off and get a lot of visibility in the space. 

46:25
Are starting to take off and get a lot of visibility in the space why they appeal to the masses and they're different. I think kind of what's lacking in the space is the way that we think about a sports book and in our heads, like, as I'm answering this question, or even as jeff asks it, like sharp, soft, combo, whatever, right, this is like all traditional. I think that there's room for like a very non-traditional type of sports book that, like we have, we don't have it in market yet, but something that might appeal to a younger demographic is more, with the times, than the traditional sports book view. Right like this is just like the model for what, no, what better is your? Your catering to? But from a product perspective, I think there's room for a lot of innovation. 

47:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Interesting. I would agree and I hope we'd see something like that. 

47:14 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Like the guy from Ireland. Remember that guy. 

47:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh yeah, we the better. Did you end up meeting up with him at all? 

47:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, I, we didn't. When would I have met up with him? 

47:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know. 

47:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Ice. No, oh no. 

47:23
I did not. I did not. If you are looking to sign up for a new sports book, which we always recommend, pinnacle is our preferred choice. We trust them. They're very fair. They're not going to limit you. They got posted limits. You need Pinnacle as one of your books. However, we do recommend playing at a majority of sportsbooks if you can. If you're located anywhere in a regulated state and you're looking to sign up for a new sportsbook, please visit wwwbetstampapp slash circlesoff and sign up for a sportsbook through that link. It really helps support the show, keeps it free, keeps us doing extra episodes and things like that, and we really do appreciate the support. This has been episode 97 of circles off. We will see you all next week and remember, don't talk about it, be about it.