00:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but you know what? Actually, you know what? Todd Bertuzzi, I got a beef to pick with you right now. When I was a kid, I had a Todd Bertuzzi signed jersey. I had a Canucks jersey, Bertuzzi on the back, 44. I met him in person. He signed it for me, but the guy signed it on the front of the jersey. Come on. 

00:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's go Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 144 right here. Part of the Hammer Betting Network. 

00:27 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. I am Rob Pizzola, joined back in the saddle by Johnny from BetSlam. 

00:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're doing your best. Andy Frost impression right now. 

00:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was pretty good Part of the Hammer Betting Network. 

00:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's very few people who are going to get that reference. You needed to listen to Leafs talk radio after Leaf games. 

00:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
People still do listen to that. It's declining, dwindling. Obviously yeah, but they just go to YouTube and watch Leafs talk radio after Leaf games. You know that sucks. People still do listen to that. 

00:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's declining, dwindling obviously, but yeah, but they just go to YouTube and watch me. 

00:51
Exactly, zach's got the right format for it. Honestly, I don't know how anyone does post-game shows anywhere, especially in markets where the fans are like diehard fans Because no offense, this is very bad for me to say but like the average fan is an idiot and doesn't understand sports. So like a team will lose a game where they play well, but all it is is callers just calling in and be like we gotta blow this up, trade everybody, do this, and then you get like the most insane uh, trade recommendations. I remember I used to listen to like leafs talk radio after the games when I was growing up and it was always the same call. It was like we gotta do something and trade like nick antropov and a first rounder and just go out and get sydney crosby like as if this is like a real and and poor andy frost is listening to this stuff and he's like yeah, you know, I don't. I think it's gonna take a lot more than a first rounder and a third line centerman to get the league's best player. 

01:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like I, I can't, I don't know how people sit through, that I know, and then they're constantly just basically, uh, like suggesting to blow up the team after two losses and then thinking the team's like going to the cup after two wins in a row. 

02:04 - Zack Phillips (Other)
But that's what's fun. 

02:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I guess it's fun that's the fun of just being a fan. That was, that was fun before. Betting was in. Was was popular now. Now you just bet well, I guess it. 

02:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, to each their own right. Um, I think there is still something there of like a bunch of people connecting around a team. But god, I just can't. I can't handle. I guess maybe this says a lot more about me. I can't handle other people's opinions sometimes, man, like I just don't want to. I don't want to hear. I want to formulate my own. This is why I do a podcast myself. I don't listen to much content in this space, like I don't care enough, honestly I have other things to do. 

02:43
Yeah, since I started bedding. 

02:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even enough. Honestly, I have other things to do. Since I started betting, I don't even enjoy watching games without. I don't care to really just watch a regular season game of a team I used to follow, for example, the Blue Jays. Now it's like okay, yeah, the Jays game is on and I'll definitely know the scores, I'll definitely know if the Leafs won or lost, but I don't care to watch the game fully, every single game. Now, if I'm there I'll watch it, put it on. But that's what betting does to you, I guess, of course it changes everything, but I will still watch NFL any game. Nfl Jags, titans Thursday night, I'll watch it. 

03:14 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's always an AFC South game. Right, it's always the two worst teams in the AFC South Jets Raiders. 

03:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I yeah. Episode 144. We got a couple NFL players here One who played in the Super Bowl, juszczyk, yeah, kyle Juszczyk, yeah, top paid tight end, sorry, top paid fullback. Dallas Clark, yeah, legend Classic white tight end back in the day, and we have a couple of NHL players that wore 44. If Jason Witten didn't exist, how big dallas clark would be if witten didn't exist? Why? 

03:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
why not just another big white tight end that always got like the glow? 

03:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
jason clark was good with. He wore no gloves, I think no gloves. 

03:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, yeah, never gloves. 

03:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, a bit of chalk on those hands, lebron style little baby powder we have morgan riley, current uh defense one of the leafs, todd bertzi Back in the day, big bird. 

04:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We don't say his name anymore after Chris Moore which, by the way, it was Chris Moore, right, yeah, no. 

04:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Steve Moore Steve. 

04:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Moore, steve Moore, chris Moore's, the better, baseball better, or whatever. 

04:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
His brother was Dominic Moore on the Leafs. 

04:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, steve Moore, that was a rough one. That was a rough one. I remember this one, like it was yesterday, I don't remember it much I mean, it's a big sucker. Bertuzzi literally chased him down the ice from behind, grabbed him by the jersey, delivered a blow to the side of his head, knocked him out and then proceeded to fall on top of him, which broke his neck in the process. It was really bad. It was really bad. 

04:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I would love to know what the post-game talk radio was on this one actually. I mean, how many guys were supporting bertuzzi? Because that guy gave naslin which is the captain, uh a concussion from a cheap shot, hit exactly the game before, and then bertuzzi said he's got to pay for that, he's got to fight, and then he didn't want to fight well, I don't remember what the suspension was um the remainder of the Canucks season, which cost them the final 13 games. 

05:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
If that was back in 2004, if this happened in 2024, this guy would never play hockey again. Yeah it, it would have. It would have been very different if it happened nowadays, but I remember that one uh, pretty clearly, pretty clear, that that was a a big event in the talk sports radio at that time. 

05:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
When was it? What year 2004. 2004. 

05:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was 18 years old 20 years ago. I was 18 years old at that time. I won't forget that one in particular. 

05:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I had a signed Bertuzzi jersey when I was a kid. He signed it for me About a year, probably about a year before that incident. Tough break, yeah. But you know what? Actually, you know what? Todd Bertuzzi, I got a beef to pick with you right now. When I was a kid I had a Todd Bertuzzi signed jersey. I had a Canucks jersey, bertuzzi on the back, 44. I met him in person. He signed it for me but the guy signed it on the front of the jersey and I was too young to even know to tell him hey, sign the. Sign it on the number on the back so you can hang it up. Right guy signed it on the front in between the Canucks logo, the curve, like that disrespect bastard man. 

06:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What's his relation to current leaf? Tyler Bertuzzi nephew. I believe nephew. Yeah, okay, it's not son. No, okay, that makes a lot of sense. Makes a lot of sense. 44 is a huge baseball number. 

06:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hank Aaron, hank Reggie Jackson prior to my time, these guys were, of course. 

06:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't. I'm not suggesting I watched Hank Aaron live, but a very underrated pitcher in Roy Oswalt on the Phillies. I only mentioned that because I used to bet him all the time with the Astros, but that Phillies like thinking back to what the Phillies had. I'm missing the fourth, but they had Cliff Lee, roy Oswalt, doc Halliday and someone else in the rotation at the same time. 

06:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, it's gonna really bother you know what the Phillies closer was, that pit that like had a perfect season. Papelbon no perfect season like no blown saves. I should, I should know Brad Lidge. Brad Lidge had him in fantasy, my first year. 

07:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There you go. You retained some of the most random knowledge ever Brad Lidge, he wasn't bad. Brad Lidge, I'm going to be really bothered by not knowing who the four. Cole Hamels, oh Hamels, cole Hamels, of course. 

07:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
There we go, 2011. Os 2011,. 

07:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oswalt Halliday Hamels. Cliff Lee, that's man. 

07:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That's a good rotation. That's how you build a rotation that is a top rotation. 

07:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's how you build a rotation. 

07:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speaking of something that was great back in 2003,. When was it sorry 2011? Yeah, but you're implying that they're? 

07:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
not great now. 

07:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speaking of something that was incredible back in 2011,. And you know what? I don't even know if we're going to have to cut that. 

07:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, we're just going to keep it going. I might as well at this point. They should be the top of the rotation. 

07:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Speaking of top of the rotation here in Ontario. 

07:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Pinnacle Sportsbook, of course, the world's sharpest sportsbook. I would implore you, if you have not checked out Pinnacle Sportsbook in Canada, make sure you do so. They treat you very fairly. You don't get limited. They actually post the limits for you so you know exactly what you can bet beforehand. But ultimately, if you do want to win at betting which I mean should be one of the biggest goals for everyone out there who's in the betting space you got great odds available to you at Pinnacle Sportsbook lower margins than other sportsbooks. So bet smart, bet Pinnacle Sportsbook. Lower margins than other sportsbooks. So BetSmart BetPinnacle, your trusted sportsbook for the past 25 years. And if you do sign up in Canada, use code HAMMER H-A-M-M-E-R to do so. It does support us here. On Circles Off, you must be 19 plus not available in the US and, as always, please play responsibly. 

08:42 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We have an absolute banger of an episode for you here today, here on the Hammer Betting Network. We are going to. We'll get into. We have some tweets that trigger us. Rob's put together a list. We've got eight tweets that trigger him. We're going to react. 

08:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's getting easier, it's getting easier. 

08:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's some actually non-sports related that are even funnier. I just sifted through them. Hilarious on some of these. 

09:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So what's happened to me is you listened to the episode where Kanish was on. 

09:05
Of course, yeah, the banana marinara thing or whatever. But when I went away for vacation, I ended up on the For you tab on Twitter. Now I check it all the time because it provides great content for the show. Like that tab is the opposite of For you. Like it's the stuff I never want to see. Like it's the stuff I never want to see. But it just keeps filtering it to me over and because I think, like I'm clicking this stuff, we're using it, they just keep filtering. I see the worst stuff on twitter. It's actually making for great segments nowadays for sure, for sure. 

09:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we'll get into that in a bit. Tweets that trigger us before we do, um, we are going to do a deep dive into the player prop betting market. This episode episode right now for anybody listening is long overdue. A lot of people have been asking for it in the comments. A lot of people are messaging us personally. What we're going to do today is basically break down how you can make money betting on player props, and this is something that we've essentially held off from doing because we didn't want to burn our own edges. We rob and I both make money by doing this right now, but I think it's time we're going to really delve into this and, um, yeah, we'll start. We'll start with it. We'll just get right into it. If you do bet player props, listen for the info. We're happy to share it. If you have any questions concerns, you can always reach out to us. Uh, if you don't, this will be a great episode for you to potentially learn. But, either way, please hit that like and subscribe button. This is a big episode for us. We've been waiting to do this and it's going to provide a lot of value for you guys. So, please, we're going to pause right now for three seconds. Hit it All right. Welcome back everybody to the program. We'll start it off. 

10:43
I want to start by saying for all the OGs out there who've been listening to this podcast from the very beginning, you may remember me talking about the player prop market. Hey, what's Johnny Benny's doing? A lot of player props originating building some ground up numbers and, you know, figuring out how to beat that stuff. And for a while, that is you know how I used to get an edge sports betting. It was a lot of fun. Uh, it was a lot of work and it was definitely entertaining. But, um, yeah, back in the day I did used to build up all numbers from the ground up just to figure out the usage, the minutes, and then essentially adjust everything. 

11:19
Well, depending on the sport, it's obviously very different, but by which defense they're playing, which usage, prior weeks, things like that. It used to strip out prior weeks things. That might be a little bit more of an anomaly play. So if players had, like certain game states, I would strip out and then kind of put together a baseline. 

11:35
I don't want to get into it too much, but it was very intricate and it won for a number of years and I do believe right now it would still win in the current market. However, over the past few years I started to notice a trend from this is coming on 10 years now where every year the market has become significantly more and more efficient in the player prop terms. So this was already the case for, let's say, nfl, where you could be confident that if you could bet Raiders plus three on Sunday morning and somewhere else was offering plus five, that was most likely a good bet, an exaggeration of course, an exaggeration, of course, but you know you might as well take the plus five, because over a long sample size, that's going to win market. 

12:26
Now we've come to, essentially, a little bit of a crossroads where I do believe now that the market is efficient enough for you to win in the player prop market without a model, and that's what we're going to go ahead and explain to you guys today how to do and what to do and how to use it and all the good stuff. And by the end of this episode, if you actually look, pay attention and potentially take some notes, I do think it's a good earn for everybody here. Obviously, this is not financial advice. There's a chance you can still lose money. It is, it is gambling, but we're going to go ahead and and and tell you guys how Couple months back and this is you Hammer, but is working on an incredible tool that will make it very easy to beat player props and beat the market and make a lot of money betting. 

13:13
And we've been developing that for about a year now and actually perfecting it. We're almost ready to kind of like launch that and we're just in a testing phase right now where we've sent it out to a lot of friends and family, other bettors pros things like that. 

13:28
Pizzola has been testing for a while. We've seen incredible results and we are looking basically for people who are potentially interested in getting in early, learning more about the prop market, to come forward and potentially, if you're betting props right now, reach out to us behind the scenes. We can do one-on-one calls. We either member of the team, potentially me, uh, depending on who it is, so let us know you can reach out to us. It's going to be contact at bet stampapp or you can DM us on Twitter at bet stamp. Those will be the best ways to get in touch. So anyone who's betting player props, 100% reach out. Anyone who hasn't and is interested in starting to can also go ahead. So we'll start it off. I gave Rob the product about three months ago. Yes, and Rob, you didn't bet any player props before then. 

14:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So here's my history in player props. 

14:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Here's Rob's story. 

14:15 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So, for those who don't know, I had a way bigger edge in the daily fantasy sports before I did betting and those were built. 

14:25
Those were models that I built myself as well to project player points across various sports Major League, baseball, nhl, nba. So I originally started with a form of player props, but it wasn't betting player props, it was betting DFS. Over time projections just got better and better and there was big companies putting out great projections where just the margin started decreasing and it became like a game theory type of thing to beat DFS rather than having the best projections in market. So for me it was like how can I take these player projections which I'm building and build them into a model to beat sports? At the time where I made that transition, player props weren't a big thing, like there was no regulated sports betting. You had all your offshore options and PPHs, but you had nowhere near the level of options you have in player props nowadays. So for me I immediately just focused on the major markets and that's where I found success. For years was betting major league, baseball, nhl, nfl in particular and player props were just never a thing to me. Over time, especially in the last few years, I've been getting more active in the player props game as a lot of my full models are more automated. 

15:45
I'm not at my desk all day long or whatever, but the challenge for me is it's just a very different market and I've always just kind of like the episode we did with Adam Beagle Betts last week. He was a big proponent of specialization, finding your niche, what you're good at, and just do it really well. For me that was always just major markets, like making prices on NHL games, and once I started to mix player props into the mix it just became a little bit too convoluted for me. So I basically said, ah, this isn't worth my time. Been testing this player props tool and what I found is a lot of things which I'll talk about over the course of the show. But I have a BetStamp tracked account where I've turned just over 7% ROI in three months. Closing line value very solid. I've not lost as many accounts as I thought I was originally going to lose in the first place, but on top of that I actually haven't had to devote even a lot of time in order to earn that ROI. 

16:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You're saying with using our tool? 

16:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
With using the tool, which has been big for me because I listen, everyone has their own unique situations, but I don't want to be at a desk for my entirety of the day. I want to be able to bet for half an hour to an hour a day and see good results from it, like that's optimal for me. So this worked really well for me, but from a player prop side like I'm closer to noob than I am to expert, and this has been just like a very easy way for me to make side income, like on top of what I'm already doing from my, my, my other betting. 

17:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
All right, fair enough, would you say. It's a good amount of money you made so far. 

17:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, and just like a lot of things I've learned along the way that have helped. But we did an episode a long time ago about how to read an odd screen and one of the things that we talked about was the more you just look at it. Like if you're familiarize yourself with an odd screen and you're looking at it over time, you're going to pick up on certain things. Of course, you know I talked about how lots of times certain PPH books will move before the rest of the market, and that's not something somebody told me. That's just something that I learned over time by watching an odd screen. Same thing happens with a player prop screen, where you just figure out certain things over time and you're able to optimize like that. So you already have a great tool that you can use which brings all these things to the forefront. You add in some optimizations on a personal level and now you're running. You're running something that's just free, flowing and smooth. Yeah. 

18:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So the way, the way we've been doing it and the way the product kind of works, is you instead of just like. So I'm going to explain what would roughly be just like top down betting steam chasing, as people call it. Essentially, what you want to do is you want to find, like a source of truth, so you want to say, okay, this site is really sharp, they have the best price. And then you want to pick off every price that is off market from that where you can basically get you know, almost like an arbitrage bet, but you never want to actually bet both sides. You just want to bet the one price that's inefficient. That way, you're maximizing your ads. 

18:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's our choice, but some might want to arb. 

19:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We prefer to bet one side, don't arb, I agree. However, what you're gonna, what you, what you're gonna want to factor in the player props market is uh, right now, player props is kind of like how the regular full game stuff was maybe five years ago, in a sense of five years ago. You can open up an odd screen and you can see fandu's got a price here, dk's got here, mgm's here, penny's here all these books are slightly different pricing. You're going to be able to find some arbitrage opportunities. Over the years that'll get tightened up and within the player props market, you do have to act fast because this is something that will tighten up over the next couple of years as well. But we're at the perfect spot in the market where books have started to actually take real money on the player props, as opposed to in the past when they'd only take 50, 100 bucks. Now you can actually get down a lot more on player props than you can actually at some major sports, for example, college football and college basketball. You can bet more on the major like. So NBA or NFL player props will take higher limits than anything college basketball related, right? 

20:00
So you might have thought in the past, player props are going to kill accounts, things like that. Think of it this way the people betting now a lot of people who are starting betting they're not necessarily betting full games. They're betting a lot of parlays same game parlays, player prop parlays and regular player props. So when you think of it, that just coming in as action into your account is no longer a red flag If you have McCaffrey to score a touchdown, or if you have McCaffrey under 68 and a half receiving yards or Jamar Chase over. These are just regular things that people bet nowadays. In fact, what's funny is it's more likely that your account will last betting player props versus betting a college football total or a college basketball total and getting two or three points of CLV on that. 

20:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's one of uh. So I made like eight points which I'll get to over the course of the show. But one that stands out to me is it's much easier to sustain accounts betting player props than I personally thought it would be. 

21:00
Uh, I've had accounts cut way quicker other sports Way quicker and even some derivatives of other sports, like I've had accounts cut quicker, betting NHL first periods, nba first halves, which is like still a major market, especially NBA first halves. Then I have player props. It's been man, here we go. It's been two shows. I haven't mentioned it. I used to consult for sports books. I still have some connections from sports books out there In the ones that I've reached out to. They tell me that 50 to 60% of their total action is coming in on player props. Nowadays it's actually half to more than half, and when that's the quantity of action that's coming in, it doesn't look like it's someone coming in that's just looking to pick off stuff, as we now see that down to zero, unfortunately, I was trying to try to make a run. 

21:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So what you're gonna. What you're gonna want to do if you want to beat player props is you're gonna want to essentially have some sort of spot where you can look at, where you can see the odds for every single book and every single prop market, that's, on every single book that you have. If you're gonna do, it's going to be very time consuming. You're going to have to have like multiple screens up. It's not really fun and will consume most of your day. Okay, so what? Yeah, what you're going to want to do if you want to beat the player prop market right now is you're going to want to have all of the spots you can possibly bet, which obviously, as we've preached on the show, is every single book that's available to you. So If you have a Pinnacle account, we want you to sign up. If you don't have a Pinnacle account, we want you to sign up right now. Use code HAMMER. But you're also going to want to have other sportsbooks available so you can beat player props across all the books, not just on one. What you're going to want to do is essentially have every prop. So let's say, you want to look at LeBron James. You don't want to be just looking at LeBron James on each tab and have one book open on one tab and then have 25 tabs open and then have to search for LeBron command F or have to like individually go to the Lakers game, then player props, then rebounds, then points and assists and all these different things. What you're going to want to do is have some sort of screen set up where you can actually have all of the things that you need all in one specific spot. So that's kind of like the first part of our product, and where that comes in is putting everything in one clean, neat, organized way for you guys. And then, second, what you're going to want to do is make sure that you're able to read that screen and figure out which sports books are sharp, which ones are not as sharp, and there's so many different things in here that I think our product specifically will do for you and will inform you of, such as which things to bet, which time of day, which books might be sharp on certain sports, different sports, different prop types, so many different examples where one book may be the sharpest for MBA but may also be mispricing a specific prop type, like a double, double or triple, triple, triple, double, sorry. So either way, yeah, they'll four by four. Tim Hortons, triple, triple, triple boys. So, either way, that's where you're going to want to start. 

23:59
And then there's just so many things you can do in the player prop market right now where you can win, but essentially all it boils down to is having all of the information on one screen right in front of you where you can win. 

24:04
But essentially all it boils down to is having all of the information on one screen right in front of you where you can then factor in and you can say all right, this is what the fair market price should be for this. 

24:14
And at this one particular sports book, I'm able to get this, which is either below or above the fair market price, and if it's above fair market price, you're going to want to leave it and not play it, and if it's below fair market price, you're going to want to leave it and not play it, and if it's below fair market price, you're going to want to play it. Um, and just by doing this and again, there's not financial advice, there's a lot of variants involved but just by doing this, we feel myself and Rob feel that this would be enough for you to win a decent amount of money per year and, uh, I can't give out specific amounts I don't want to like. It's not financial advice, but we do believe is a amazing winning strategy that works right now and should be sustainable for at least the next couple of years. 

24:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, totally agree. So in my experience and I'm tracking on a private bet stamp account we'll post the actual numbers for full transparency In the past quarter I've made 1,109 bets. I have a 7.8% ROI, 3.4% CLV on those. I won't say the net amount because it's not important and I don't like to disclose figures, but it's a substantial amount of money that's just been won by me putting in limited effort. So just being able to see numbers across screens, being able to color code those numbers for specific edges so that you can pinpoint them right away and see them right away, being able to organize the sportsbooks however you want to and that's regulated offshore PPH in like one very easy navigatable view. Being able to filter props that you want to bet, for example. Like through experience I've just learned that there are certain markets where you're almost never going to find an edge, so I actually don't even want them to take space on my screen. I just hide them, boom done out of there. But like, just making a very easy customizable view works wonders for you right away, and then you just pick up a lot of stuff over the course of using it. But the big one for me, and the one that, like I've always preached this, and it's not just like promotion for people to sign up at Pinnacle or whatever, but especially in the player props market. I can tell you I have tried this on at least 25 books at least. 

26:19
I don't know the exact number. Every book has a weakness in player props. Every single book in some capacity, even the books that you would consider to be the sharpest books. In setting a particular price, there's a weakness associated, and you might say, like well, where could there possibly be a weakness if there's a book that puts out good prices, potentially the derivatives of those prices, how they price the difference between a half rebound or a one rebound for an NBA player, how they price the difference between yardages for NFL players or whatever. Every single sports book has something that is exploitable in some capacity from a player props perspective, and some of them last a really long time in terms of the exploitation. So don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Even if it's a book that's considered a sharp book, there's still ways to beat that sharp book. Big, time, big time. 

27:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uh, I don't want it like anyone who, who knows, can just do these, this math anyways, but based on the numbers Rob said, I've actually earned a slightly higher ROI than that over a number of years. You're this fucking guy man. 

27:28
Rob's saying he did 7.7%. Right, I think 12 is achievable for sure, 12%, but 7.7%. Rob mentioned 7.8. 7.8 over. Let's call it Don't short me on the decimal let's call it 1,000 bets, 1,100 bets. You said yeah, assuming Rob's bet size, and again this is the player problem. So I just want to give you guys, I'm not assuming what Rob bets. I don't know how much he bets per game, I don't know how much he can get down. But in the event that Rob to, let's say, find a way to get down just like, let's say, $1,000 per bet, now you guys can assume what Rob bets, what he doesn't bet, whatever. If he could find a way and if you could find a way to get $1,000 on each of those bets, times the amount of bets he made, times the ROI, that would be a three-month profit of, right now, $77,000, roughly. 

28:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
All right, and converting my unit to $1,000, just a quick math here would have been $86,800 in profit, roughly, roughly. So we're in that range. So there you go. 

28:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you could bet the same bets Rob would be doing. I'm not saying maybe some of them you can't bet a thousand. Maybe some of you can. Maybe you don't have the bankroll yet, maybe you need to work your way up, maybe you're well above that and you can bet 10,000. I'm not sure exactly where everyone was at, but this is roughly where the edge is in this market A lot of times and the reason we're saying it's like we're authentic guys, we do this podcast 144 episodes. 

28:53
I myself always speak what I feel. I'm not usually don't necessarily have a filter on here to say like, oh no, this could be good. But yeah, I know you're doing things well. You guys know when. When fezik comes on and he's talking his stuff, I'll call him out. When guys come on, I'll call him out and I'll tell you yes, you can make money betting sports. Here's how. And now this is kind of the first episode where we're giving you a little bit more behind the scenes on like an actual, actionable way to make money betting sports. It comes with a tool that we're building and I think that's part of the reason why we're willing to give it out now. 

29:22
But at the end of the day the numbers that Rob mentioned. It's not unreasonable and you can look through your accounts at home and see, like what can I roughly get down how much is my bankroll? You definitely want to be Kelly staking these and making sure that you're betting the appropriate sizing so that you're not going overboard. There is some variance in this, meaning there's not 100% chance that you're going to win over the given week or over the given day. However, at these levels you're significantly more likely to win than just playing full game, because even those who do have an edge on full game stuff just like full transparency the best pros right now who are beating the NFL markets they're expecting to earn in and around the range of one and a half to three percent per year, depending on how much volume they're getting down on NFL, nba, some really, really big groups that are moving hundreds of millions of dollars per year are content with a one percent ROI. So Rob's mentioning 7.7. I think anything around that's reasonable. So when you have that much of a difference in ROI, your variance significantly lower and it's going to be, you know, much harder not saying it's impossible to have you know a losing month or a losing two months or losing three months stretch, whereas when you're betting full game stuff and the edge is much thinner, it's obviously possible to have that. 

30:36
And last thing I'll add before I throw back to Rob is you might be looking at all these guys selling picks, giving picks out, even a lot of the sharper guys on twitter who you might. You might see sharper guys on youtube, guys who sell different things. They're all selling game picks. Um, for the most part, we've been through some millions of millions of times but those are not going to win because so many things have to be true. For you to win on that pick, that guy has to actually have an edge, it has to be not factored into the market right now and in addition to that, you have to be able to get down at the same numbers as him. And if that is a true edge, then in all likelihood it'll go away within the next couple of months, years, whatever. 

31:15
With the top-down betting approach where you are just reading the market, edges open up at any given second. So right now there might be, you know, if I pull open, let's say, the product, I might have an edge right now on Nikola Jokic under on rebounds and that edge may go away in an hour because the lines have moved. But another thing might open up and as soon as one player is announced out or one player is announced in, everything recalibrates and now you have way more edges. So this is like a sustainable method where you don't need to be on your computer at the exact time when a pick is sent for you to be like oh, I got to get this exact line, check back as little or as much as you want in the day and whatever's on there is going to be good. And then check back an hour later and there may be some different stuff on there yes, so two, two things that I'm gonna touch on, uh, there really quickly. 

32:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I'll start on the last point first. Um, I have this as one of my notes that I wanted to talk about different times of day of the day are better for different things, and you start to learn this through experience. So, again, I'm very unfamiliar with player props, but I know how to use an odd screen. I I've been using odd screens for years, right, don Best, spanky BetStamp screen, even Unnebated, all sorts of odd screens. But different times of day are better for different things. So you're going to start to see like you don't need to be around at certain times in the day where there's just like not a lot of things opening up. This is going to be something that you learn through experience. Days where there's a lot of questionable players in the NBA that's probably a day where you're going to want to be around for the half an hour an hour leading off to tip-offs because there's going to be a lot of injury news that comes in. There's going to be some days where there's not, but each sports book I have found has like their own independent way of dealing with props, and I've even gotten to the point where I'm pretty confident that some sports books in particular will have maybe one trader, probably multiple traders looking at player props, but they tend to happen at specific times of the day, like maybe a shift starts at a certain point where someone looks through a liability on player props and starts to move numbers, or through sharp accounts at a bet, stump stuff and starts to move numbers. So different times of day better for different things. You learn through experience and again back to optimization from the beginning. You go from maybe spending an hour betting player props every day to whatever you want it to be, honestly, because you just become that much more efficient. 

33:45
You mentioned Kelly staking as well, which I think is important. This is a concept for people that don't know, who are unfamiliar with betting. There's different ways that you can manage your bankroll. There's what's called flat staking, where you just basically bet the same amount on every bet. I would not recommend that. There's ways that you can just basically increase your bet size based off of your confidence level in a bet or your edge if you're quantifying it. 

34:12
Much more recommendable Kelly staking is using the Kelly criteria, a mathematical formula to determine your bet sizing, which I like to do and I've always liked to do with betting. The only thing I will say is that what I found to be helpful is to learn some form of Kelly staking in your head and I know that's like I'm not talking exact numbers right, like you might type in the Kelly formula that tells you to bet $3,428. If you don't bet that exact amount but you're close and you're able to get a bet that you would have otherwise missed, then you've done yourself a good job. So when you are Kelly staking at the beginning, pay attention to the bet amounts you're getting, depending on the edge 1% edge on a favorite, typically I'm betting this amount and start to really have those go through your head. That way, when you have to bet something that's faster player news, whatever you know that it's gonna move quickly you can get a bet in without having to go through a step of putting in a mathematical formula. So that's been really helpful to me. 

35:19
I do like to optimize my bet amounts. It just makes logical sense Bigger edge, I want to bet more on it. If it's more likely to win, I want to bet more on it. But I try not to make it a very time consuming process for me to determine what the bet size is going to be. 

35:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If you guys do this correctly, then your bankroll will outrun your Kelly staking ability within a very short period of time and you'll never have to worry about Kelly staking again, because the amount you can bet on the prop will be less than your Kelly staking max at a certain bankroll limit and is a good problem to have. 

35:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course, where you just don't even have to think about what you have to bet anymore, because you're just betting to the max. 

35:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Correct. 

35:59
I mean, everyone wants to do that that that is somewhere where I think a lot of people can definitely get um, yeah, so we're. We're, basically we're looking at this market right now. The biggest thing I found in terms of the player prop market it's different with the full game mark and the regular game market is you are at a phase right now in like, I guess, the state of betting, where player props, like as rob mentioned, are getting more rec action than full game action. So the accounts are actually staying alive, betting player props, or at least more than getting clothesline value on some other things. But in addition to that, because it's such an up-and-coming thing, there's new player props game posted every day and new, new books are always like hey, I need player props, I need same game parlors, I need all these different things and they're posting different unique websites and unique sorry, unique odd sets and unique things like that. So we're at like almost I'd say this is probably the best time to get in right now. 

36:56
On the player props game, it was easier to beat five years ago, certainly, but you couldn't get as much down. It is still easy to right now. On the player props game, it was easier to beat five years ago, certainly, but you couldn't get as much down. It is still easy to beat now with the right technology and you can get more down. And in the future, I do think over the next couple of years, that the edge will dry up and a lot of the odd sets will consolidate into one. You won't have as much off-market numbers. It'll be harder to beat. 

37:25
So, without a doubt, every year it gets harder to beat. But I truly believe that this is actually the best time to get into the game. It's a mix of still easy to beat and can get down 10 times, probably actually 50 times, the amount you could 10, five, five to 10 years ago. Because when you looked at like, I remember a time when the max bet I could get on a prop was like $500. And that would be, like you know, across maybe a couple of books. I gotta be like okay, I got 500 on this. Now there's certain sites where you can click like one bet and get 15,000. 

37:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Even on fresh accounts too, in some cases. 

37:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We're not talking like massive VIP stuff. We're talking like you know, just easy, easy. Okay, they'll accept that, right. And I just, I just think this is like the best, the best time, more than ever now, to actually get into the market and start to learn it. 

38:11
The product that we have, as I mentioned, if you are interested in getting in on this earlier, I don't mean to seem like an advertisement or anything like that, but we have done very little improvement on the physical app that we have right now over the past six months. So anyone who's using BetSamp I know it's almost, hopefully, it's a hundred percent of you guys are using BetSamp to track your bets. You'll see. We added a lot of the player props, we added all the different markets, we added the futures, we improved the tracking and then after that there hasn't really been any major improvements over the past six months, but our developers have still been working night and day here, um grinding, and we've had so many cool features. So we've been putting everything we have into this new product and that's alternate line calculations, um, injury adjustments, everything you can possibly think of. That would just make it super easy to beat. 

38:56
Player props is in this existing product and we are super fired up to actually like get this thing launched and going. So please reach out. It'll be contact at betstampapp if you want like an early look, or DM us on Twitter. This is a massive money making opportunity right now. Absolutely not financial advice, but I think if you're betting and you're interested in betting and you're betting a couple other markets, it's probably worth the shift now to get into this market and learn it while we can still get down good money on it and while the edges are still plentiful. 

39:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, Important to note like this is not for everyone. At the end of the day, Even though you have an odd screen, you have a tool that's going to help you get down, there's still a certain amount of work that you have to put in as a better to achieve success regardless period. There's just no freebies in life, so it's not for everyone. There's still an element of work that's attached to it. But if that's something that's of interest to you, I can say I'm a pretty open book and always have been, in life, honest and transparent. 

40:00
I can say with a high degree of confidence that I will out-earn my origination using this method and maybe that says more about who I am as an originator at this point. But in all honesty, the amount of work I put into finding edges in specific markets relative to how quickly I can find good bets this way, I'm very confident that I can out-earn in the long run. On top of that, you can actually use both methods if you really want to. If you're proud of your origination and you want to do that, go for it, and then you can have some sort of side income on the side. It all works out great. But ultimately I've been providing my feedback. I basically have acted as a tester for the last quarter or so and provided-. 

40:46 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And has been paid handsomely, not from me, but by the books. 

40:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
To do so and it's really useful. But there's other stuff out there that I will hit on. Listen, this is we'd love for you to use the product. If you're of interest, hit up the email contact at Betstampapp. Dm. Betstamp totally would like to use that. If not, there's other stuff I can give to you here as well that I think is valuable. Generally speaking, if you're a player, props better and some things that I've personally just noticed in using this tool that I think are prevalent across the industry, but the biggest one for me is that the outlier is not always a great bet. 

41:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And he's given out some. He's given out some real. 

41:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And we talked with Mr Limited about this right and kind of learning the hard way that just because one book consistently has off-market prices, it actually doesn't mean that that's a great bet and you wanna go pick them off. You can often see this through CLV. If you're just betting at that book and they're just not adjusting the number, you're probably scratching your head after a while being like, hmm, off-market price, I keep betting into it, they're not into it, they're not moving it, I'm not winning. That should be the light bulb. But just for those who want to line shop in a different way, you might just want to use the regular Betstamp app If you like. You know to go through players individually, go through props individually and see prices. That's totally fine, that's free to use. But remember that the outlier is not always a great bet. 

42:22
Number two we'll get into this in more detail in another episode. But some books are slower than others to adjust to injury news and this is very useful when you want to package bets together. There was that Bender wins guy on Twitter that got into it with Kirk Evans. Kirk Evans probably has like a million enemies in the space nowadays. I think he's become the guy that everyone hates, which isn't he's like, really nice guy. It's funny. But anyways, understanding that using parlays can actually be your friend in situations where you have multiple edges and this happens in the NBA, happens in other sports, major League Baseball lineup announcement or whatever Tons of stuff where you get injury news and that's going to have a compounding effect on every other player prop Rather than betting those all individually, same game parlays. Way to go, very easy way to just take multiple edges, put them in one. We'll go through some real life examples on this stuff in a future episode as well. 

43:29
Other couple things that I think are really important If you see something pop up, that's a big edge, act quickly. I've often made the mistake of like going and checking other prices to just like trust the tool, basically, and trust the fact that this is a big edge. Sports books often change their prices and in some cases I've noticed some specific sports books will make drastic changes to their prices really quickly. Could be to balance action, could be for whatever reason I don't know what it is, but if you see something pop up, that's a big edge. You're in a competitive market. Bet it quickly. 

44:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Last thing I'll say is a big, of course, by the way, but that's with anything, that's just not with player props, that's with any full games. You see a guy injury, anything you got to move like instantly exactly yeah, sometimes you just look and you'll be like, well, what this? 

44:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
where did this six percent edge come up? Came out of nowhere and then by the time you actually process all the information, it's gone. But yes, act quickly. Last thing I'll say and this is very particular to what I see some people do on Twitter, and not necessarily something I learned, but just a piece of advice out there If you're in the business of doing top-down betting or any sort of odds comparison, you need to be comparing the percentages and not the numbers, so you need to compare the implied probabilities. 

44:53
I cannot tell you how frustrated I get when I see someone say I'm going to bet this plus 400 because it should be plus 360 or whatever. That's like a really small edge. I know in your head it's like 40 cents, but what you gotta do is convert the 400 to a percentage, convert the 360 to a percentage and then figure out what that edge amount is so like. Stop comparing the numbers, compare the probabilities. That's the real way to determine your edge size. Too many times people overexpose themselves on what they deem to be a larger edge than it actually is. If you're Kelly betting, this is not a problem already. But just be cognizant compare the percentages, not the actual. 

45:39 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, that's a big one. Right now, just again, I'm plugging a lot, but our product does that all for you, so you won't even need to do that. It'll tell you the exact edges. It tells you exactly what books are sharp for what sports. Everything's baked into one calculation. Basically, you just need to open it up, like, look at the tutorial and figure out how to read it, and then you're ready to go. I did want to ask one more thing. Yeah, not necessarily for you. Actually, sure, producer zach messaged me one day. He said hey, what could I possibly do to get my hands on a login? I'll do anything. Yeah, I gave him the login. These producers act off, so I'm going to give him a login. What are? 

46:15 - Zack Phillips (Other)
your thoughts so far. Uh, I love it. Um, you guys have told you kind of what I was doing before and people had got that whole story. My stuff's evolved since then, get help from other people, bounce ideas off of and where things are at. This is I basically just turned into player props because A I found it was easier for me to kind of narrow into that market and find some of these inefficiencies and stuff and take advantage of some of it it. But I was manually grinding it, like you were saying before, which it's fine, I was willing to put in the work. But I mean, we're producing all the stuff for the hammer, so it's not like I have that much time on my hands to dedicate to that. 

46:51
For me, the the very first thing that I think people realize as well too, it just saves time, right, like it's a very easy way to read the screen and I mean I've been having a lot of success with it. And then, of course, you have buddy. Yeah, Obviously it's a, it's an incredible product, but it's just it makes things really easy. And there for you where you're going to do the work anyways, but now I don't have to go like screen to screen to screen to find some of the stuff and I can just kind of grab it right away and, um, it's been. It's also been a learning experience for me too, because I hear what you guys say I have. 

47:26
We have all these brilliant people who come on the pod and explain their sides of stuff. So you hear about them talking about identifying books. Like you guys are saying, hey, these numbers that are popping out there. Believe me, I learned from my own experience of fucking up and betting into those and being like, wow, this number's off. And then I'd be like hitting it for a couple of days of different, that same style prop and I'm like, oh, wait, a minute, maybe I'm the idiot. 

47:48
And then you find out a different way to approach it. The screen's right there to show you that, that now you don't have to live through the mistake. You can kind of identify these things and start to pick up on it quicker, finding which books are better or worse at props, finding which books are better not just at props but maybe one specific market. I like betting nhl props. I found books that are really good to, really easy to beat on, power play props, power play points. Like you can kind of start to identify those, and then you're, you know where to look now too, because the screen just kind of gives it to you all in one easy to find, easy to read place which makes betting so much more fun when you're winning every day yeah, that's, that's literally the beauty of it honestly like time, and then you can actually watch all the games. 

48:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Sweat like player prop sweats are also so much better than full game because you're you're watching for specific things. Sorry about zach. Actually I almost didn't give you a login. I'll tell you why. I had to message a scumbag, scumbag move. I messaged rob. I said rob said confidentially how much you paying producer zach right now because he's asking for a login. I don't want him to be out earning his salary and then he quits the show we don't have producer zach anymore. 

48:52
I don't want him to make too much shit but I gave it to him anyways. 

48:56 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I love doing this way too much for that to ever be the case. No matter what happens, I love doing this. 

49:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I said Rob, if I give him this login, we may be looking for a new producer within two months. I said are we prepared to do that? He said I have faith, zach's not going to quit the show, yeah. 

49:12 - Zack Phillips (Other)
and then I got some information on maybe something that has to do with the Super Bowl, and I need to climb my way back out of that one. So Tough tough one. 

49:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Rob did that on purpose. Yeah, Rob did it on purpose. Oh man, that's some good shit. 

49:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're going to switch gears here in just one second Before we do. I rarely promote next week's episodes, but I'm going to do it today because this is a true story. We have a big guest on next week, but I sent him our YouTube channel. He went through the videos. He's like ah, this is good. This is interesting. This is true. Said you guys are not getting enough likes for the views. He actually said this. Who said this? Our guest for next week? No, he didn't. Our guest for next week. He did not say this. I'm only coming on if we get 200 likes on this week's video. This is what he said to me and, honestly, when you, when you know who the guest is, I actually think he's serious I know who the guest is and I guarantee you he did not say that to us I think he is very serious. 

50:14
we need 200 likes on this week's video for a big name guest this week who I promise will deliver on the program that's for sure, that's for sure. 

50:24
He will deliver. Big name guest. That's all I'm gonna say. Smash that like button. And while you smash the like button, if you're not subbed here yet which is over 50% of you who watch us on a weekly basis hit that sub down below. And while you're at it, just throw a comment in as well. Youtube loves the comments for some reason. Comment on anything, I don't give a shit, but do all that stuff down below. Big name guest on next week Zach hit it. 

50:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That is funny. 

50:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know what we're yelling about. I've never seen you, Matt. 

50:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I get paid. Why are you in such a bad mood? What do you care? It's only game. Why you have to be mad, all right, first tweet comes from matt elder at respect your elder three. This is in response, um, to a a long thread which we don't have to go through. Uh, but basically bickering about reverse line movement and matt elder says and there's absolutely no way rob respects this guy. I mean he put it in his handle, but after these tweets, definitely not, no way he lost all his respect. 

51:26
Bro, you must lose tons of money laughing face To think that Vegas and Sharps don't exist. Start with Ace Rothstein. I have no idea who that is, by the way. Ace Rothstein yeah, I think I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's the guy from Casino. I think I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's the guy from Casino. De Niro plays him in Casino. Sam Ace Rothstein. Start with Ace Rothstein. Go down the line At. Bill Crackman is a sharp and I guarantee he knows. 

51:50
Reverse line movement is a telling sign where sharp money is and how Vegas feels about that game. I'm going to tell you what reverse line movement is. It's a telling sign of where sharp money was previously. It's not a telling sign of where sharp money is. And, by the way, you can just drop the R out of reverse line movement. You could just say line movement, lines move based off of sharp money. It doesn't matter whether the public is betting against the line move or they're betting with it. The line move is what matters. Again, for the millionth time, which I really wanna stress because we have more new viewers than ever, and our highest watched educational piece of content on this channel, which you should watch if you haven't is the stop using public bet percentages video. 

52:42
But reverse line movement. All it tells you is what Sharps previously bet. That doesn't mean it's value at the current number. Numbers change. Sharp bets an NFL team minus two and a half and it goes to minus three and it doesn't move anymore. It indicates that there's no Sharps that are willing to bet it at minus three. So why are you going to do that? It flies in the face of closing line value. Efficient market hypothesis. Enough is enough. People. The last thing I'm going to say here, and this will come up again three months from now, as it always does the vast majority of bettors lose. This is a harsh reality 98% rough estimate of the percentage of bettors that lose. You know how many bettors preach public bet percentages and reverse line movement. All the ones that lose, all the ones that lose. The goal is to beat the line, get out ahead of the line, not to chase the line after someone else already betted. 

53:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But he also uses every keyword that makes you know that he's not a sharp bettor. For example, look what he says To think that Vegas already as soon as you start saying Vegas, as if Vegas is an entity that makes the lines, of course, when Vegas is literally just a place, yes, to think that Vegas and sharps don't exist? Start with Ace Rothstein. Okay fine. 

54:22
Bill Crackman. Okay, you know what bill crackman, but he probably wins. He probably wins. It's not that hard to win nowadays, as we, as we've been mentioning, it's quite easy. Crackman has been doing this game. He's been in this game for a long time. 

54:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm sure he wins I can guarantee you, guarantee you, that bill crackman is not using reverse line movement to make his bet, so for this guy to throw it into the tweet of like he's a sharp and I guarantee he knows reverse line movement is a telling sign, I guarantee you. 

54:49 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We should get Crackman on. I would love to speak to him. 

54:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Let's do it. 

54:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We should message Crackman. We'll do it. I know he's been around the game for a while and then he goes in to say he says sharp money, reverse line movement and vegas. 

55:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Those are the vegas feels about the game. They have a general feeling. Also, you know what really gets me about a lot of this stuff? He didn't put it in his tweet, but the people who are like you know the the vegas wasn't built overnight and and whatever. Do you know what percentage of the profits of these companies come from the sports book? None, it's nothing. 

55:20 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's's nothing, it's all the spots. 

55:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's all the casino games. It's literally nothing. They could lose money in the sports book. It's like a drop in the bucket. 

55:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I will say anyone who says sharp money also, it's very telling that you're just off because you're not putting a price attached to it. And the only guy who I've seen do it is, uh, dave mason bol. He will sometimes tweet out what side he's like sharp money on these plays but he will then say sharp money on atlanta falcons minus three, and the line is currently now minus four. So he's actually giving you fair info. He's giving you like, yeah, sharp money is on the falcons they, it was on the falcons at this price, meaning if it goes back that price it'll likely get hit back to four. But he's not actually giving you actionable bets right now, like all these guys are trying to do. Like, oh, sharp money's on the Falcons minus three, that doesn't mean bet him at four and a half. 

56:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Completely agree. Next one Hit it, hit it. I don't know how I saw this one at Wall Street. 

56:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Silver, yeah, I don't know what your issue was with this one. I'm curious to know. Okay, go, go, go. 

56:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I feel like Larry David here, just like angry at the world Five guys. Prices are out of control. $24 for one person with a receipt of a five guys. It's a receipt for $24. 

56:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's complaining it's five guys is now expensive and it's a receipt for 24. He's complaining it's five guys is now expensive and it's 24. Okay, so fair tweet. I want to know what's your beef like? Why does this trigger you? 

56:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
you know what you can. You know what you can do. You cannot eat at five dimes. Five guys. Leave that in, leave it, leave it. You cannot. You cannot eat at five guys like it's a supply and demand industry. If people are gonna pay you know, 519 for a little fry and 1249 for a bacon cheeseburger they're gonna charge it. That's just the way the world works. So I mean it's out of control. But obviously people are spending the money on this and posting receipts and they're still eating it. What do you expect them to do? They're not gonna drop the prices if you keep eating the food like I I get. I cannot stand the people who complain like this is this is insane, like whatever. This is not a necessity of life. This is not like something that you need to function like you need to live. A five guys burger like relax people. Yeah, okay, it's expensive for a burger, just go eat other. There's a million burger options on the face of the planet. 

57:44
Yeah, five guys is overrated also I, I do like the peanuts that they would give you when you wait in line. It's, it's nice, there's something to it. But like, yeah, like you know what happens when I don't want to pay for something, I just move on to the alternative in the space you do not have to. $24 for a bacon cheeseburger combo. That's all I'm getting at here. I don't like the complaints when people are like oh, this is absurd. It's like don't do it, don't do it, you don't have to do it. 

58:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, exactly. 

58:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want to pay $500 to see Elton John. Well, guess what? Don't go see Elton John. What do you want me to tell you? Like don't go see him, go watch him on YouTube, go find another artist. Like that's the price, he's going to sell out the arena. I don't want to pay Taylor Swift ticket prices. Well guess what? He's sold out six shows in Toronto. You have to pay the prices. This stuff drives me crazy. Are we going to Taylor Swift? So I'm not going to pay a dime to see a Taylor Swift show. 

58:40 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, you should just hit up, johnny, and get access to the odd screen, and then you got cash to spend. 

58:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's not for Swifties. 

58:48 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, that one might bite you in the ass, johnny. 

58:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No. 

58:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm just kidding. 

58:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I got very heated there about the five guys. 

58:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, rob's point then. He was just was just sure he's like you don't have to eat there I just don't like the complaints if you don't have to eat there. Is there? Nicks is like if you can just say, ah, you don't have to eat there, then nobody can complain about anything, because then you can just say, well, you don't have to do that. Well, I guess so, but like there's. You could be like, oh, I'm stuck in traffic today, but like, don't, don't leave your house, you don't have to drive. 

59:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Sure, but listen, that's a good point. This has been brewing for a while because there's these tweets that go around of like this is what $100 bought me in groceries. Right, like you ever seen those tweets before. Where it's a shopping cart, it's got like four items in it and it's like you know you don't have to buy a $36 pack of shrimp. You know you can, you can, I get it. Groceries are going up. There's inflation. You're getting less than ever. That's a real reason to be upset. But don't give me a shot of a grocery cart where you're buying like the most expensive items in the grocery store, like you don't need to buy the milk that's $4 more expensive than everything else. 

59:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Got a price. Shop you got a price shop, you know. 

01:00:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
so this has been brewing for a while. 

01:00:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, what else we got here? I know we have. 

01:00:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Speaking of brewing for a while, paul Pierce switched up his story again and is now doubling down that he actually didn't poop himself in the NBA Finals. Okay, first of all, how many times can someone change their mind on a like either Did he say that he did, he said he shit himself, he's already said that, yes, and now he's coming back and saying he did it? I don't, you know. 

01:00:38 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I don't know, he shit himself. 

01:00:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'll call it out for what it is. I think he shit himself. I think pretty clearly. 

01:00:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But what did he say then? He's like now he's just claiming he didn't. 

01:00:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not even. This is not even what triggered me. 

01:00:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
This is just a barstool piece, it's just an engagement farmer. 

01:00:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, there's lots of engagement farming for sure. This is a good, good, really good job. Well done. Barstool's very good at this. Oh, this is when Jersey Jerry should have. You can't go to the end of this video. This is disturbing. Disturbing, obviously not. That was very. 

01:01:05 - Zack Phillips (Other)
I can't watch that again. It's a sad day. It's a bad day. 

01:01:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, that was a rough one. Like enough is enough. Like just this is like look at that paint, look, go up. What is that? He very clearly has a stain. They took him out in a wheelchair. He miraculously came back no problem, like we know what it is. But what bothers me is like it's just done. Like stop, just let's move on. No one's talking about this anymore. Like he's the one doing it that's what I'm saying. 

01:01:37
like what is he doing just just now? Like it would. Obviously everybody has the theory that Paul Pierce crapped himself, but like no one is talking about, he just keeps bringing it back into the news cycle. Like what is he doing? I don't understand, like it would just be forgotten. But it comes back all the time because he keeps doubling down on this stuff. Anyways, not a reason that I should get upset about things, honestly, but I see it, and I never liked Paul Pierce because I hate the Celtics and that one just really bothered me Fair enough, fair enough. 

01:02:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, this one, this is just again engagement farming. 

01:02:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Great job, great job. Booking is doing a very good job of putting out these odds on things. They went deep into the bag for this one. 

01:02:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Scroll down. Zach Put the whole thing. I want to say one thing up front. This is what 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 say. One thing up front this is what now, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, fourteen, and obviously there's no field. So they got to put a field in here. But 14 movies plus a field, 15. Whoever made this odds? I don't even know if they've ever placed a bet, because because the, the hold on this is astronomical. You have a minus 140 on a on a 15 game field, and then there's also a plus 75 plus 275, plus 200, 325, 300. This guy's raking in 50 percent hold on this for sure. So that's obviously the guy who made this. 

01:02:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, hasn't bet a lot of futures, but anyways, that's not the, that's not even what bothered me. I can't like I didn't notice the odds on this other than just the order in that they were listed and I'm looking, I'm like, okay, you know, happy Gilmore, probably the best Adam Sandler movie, waterboy. Sure, I like Billy Madison better than Waterboy, but fine, then I saw like Grown Ups, click. 

01:03:19 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Grown Ups is an underrated film. Click, go way down they listed 14 movies on here. 

01:03:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They did not put the Wedding Singer on here 14 movies on here. 

01:03:29 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
They did not put the wedding singer on here. You know what they didn't put here? 

01:03:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that they needed to put little nicky. 

01:03:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, little nicky mr deeds, little nicky and mr deeds not on here dude like they put the worst stuff on here. 

01:03:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What is this? 

01:03:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
who made this? 

01:03:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I forgot how did how? How are those movies not on this list? How is click plus 300? 

01:03:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
that's also get get uncut gems out of there. 

01:03:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know listen like get that out of anxiety watching that movie longest yard. 

01:03:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Incredible. Happy gilmore, the best, that's my boy, underrated zohan's probably at the three spot jack and jill or jack and jill's like get out of here and hubie ha Halloween. I don't even know that I don't know it either. 

01:04:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That came out like a couple years ago on Netflix. Brutal movie Brutal. I'm ashamed to say that I watched. They put these movies on ahead of the Wedding Singer, little Nicky and Mr Deeds. 

01:04:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, a couple other notables that they left off Anger Management couple other notables that they met, that they left off anger management. Yeah, oh my god, anger management 50 first dates. 

01:04:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Another underrated, different flick. A little bit of rom-com there but he deserves them yeah, anger management's hilarious man, hilarious movie yeah, yeah, also chuck and larry. Not a bad film I mean listen, I know you guys are gonna, I know he's gonna be like oh, why is? 

01:04:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
chuck and larry up there. Not a bad film that's, my Boy is there. 

01:04:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Big Daddy 8 to 1?. Isn't, big Daddy? One of the best Adam Sandler movies. 

01:04:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's a lot man. I'm just looking here he's got quite a few. Anyways, I would go personally, happy, gilmore 1, unquestioned Two. I'm going, you know I. Gilmore one, unquestioned two. I'm going, you know I'm gonna go. Zohan two, zohan, yes, johnny, I'm gonna go. Zohan two, yes, longest yard three, and this is gonna be a crazy take, but I'm gonna go. That's my boy. 

01:05:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Four that's my boy. It's very funny. I watched it recently, yeah, but I'm gonna go. 

01:05:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Zohan two, that's that's coming out of left field. Zohohan's an absolutely underrated movie. 

01:05:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do love John Turturro in that movie. I had it there too Hilarious. 

01:05:33 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's very fitting for today's day as well. Watch it, a lot of good meaning. 

01:05:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Scrappy cocoa, but I mean whoever does this stuff for Book it job well. 

01:05:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
In terms of getting a reaction. You guys ever seen the Cobbler, the Cobbler, Adam Sandler the Cobbler? It's not that good, but watch it 2014. Watch it if you can but it's not very good. 

01:05:57 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I've never even heard of the Cobbler, it's okay. Finds a magical sewing machine that allows him to see the world in a new way. 

01:06:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He sews up people's shoes, but then if they're sewn on this new machine, he's a cobbler, it's like a shoe fixer, and then if he wears their shoes, he becomes them. Okay. 

01:06:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's not the best. I mean, I had not heard of this. I had not heard of this. Honestly, yeah, it's honestly not the best. Yeah, I don't think. But you. 

01:06:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I'm sure you've seen all these other movies, so I'm just saying, yeah, you know what? I'd give it a watch. The Cobbler, I'm probably not gonna watch. It's not. The I'm telling you straight for anyone listening. I'll watch it for you. It's not the best, but if you're an Adam Sandler film, you throw it into the rotation I'll make a very shocking admission to you guys what I don't like to say stuff like this. 

01:06:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But listen, I'm an open book guy. Whatever, we got our own pod. I sometimes get emotional during movies. Okay, my wife walked in on me watching War Horse years ago and she was just like dying. She's like I can't. I can't be married to you. The amount of you're crying during this movie click with adam sandler has like the saddest ending of it. Don't watch it because it's actually so sad I'm gonna give this. 

01:07:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even remember it being sad, but I honestly don't remember. 

01:07:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm gonna give this spoiler alert here, but he basically like realizes that his entire life has passed him by and he was just a piece of shit that did nothing. And he's like reflecting on all of this in real time, while he's like crying with his daughter. If, if you, if you don't shed a tear at the end of click, I don't even know that you're a human being. I'm gonna be honest with you. I don't even know that I, I bet you there will be people in the comments this week that, for sure, cried watching. 

01:07:49
All right, all right, we'll see I will say that there will be people that cried watching. 

01:07:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Leave a comment. If you didn't cry when you watched, click. 

01:07:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Because I actually want to get some comments on Zero Zero. 

01:08:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Could you imagine if no one comments that they didn't cry? 

01:08:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's a tearjerker man, you know what I do believe. 

01:08:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Adam sandler was a producer for the benchwarmers, and that is a phenomenal movie oh, benchwarmers is that is an absolute, that has to be him. 

01:08:19 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Look at the people in the movie no, he's the producer. 

01:08:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's a. It's a happy madison film. 

01:08:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Which of his movies has the highest imdb that's nothing, bro, I know it's. I'm just saying those are just those. It's got to be Uncut Gems right, Because that was like Uncut. 

01:08:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Gems, bro, come on. Happy Gilmore is the best movie. 

01:08:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree. There's no debate. It's the most quotable, best movie. It should be a bigger favorite. 

01:08:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It shouldn't even be on the board. Rest in peace, Chubbs. Excluding Happy Gilmore. 

01:08:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, this is not in order. Click has a lower rating than Wedding Singer. You got to sort it by IMDB rating. 

01:08:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Uncut Gems. 

01:08:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
What's the Okay? 

01:08:55 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Happy Gilmore oh and what are the first ones? All the shittiest movies you made. Rain Over Me. That's a. 

01:08:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
September 11th. I haven't seen it but I'm not going to comment on it. Punch Drunk Love. That's like a romance. 

01:09:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Hotel Transylvania. What is he? A voice? Yeah, he's got to be a voice. 

01:09:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Wedding Singer is a banger. I'm going to say Wedding Singer is a very notable omission from that list. 

01:09:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Very notable omission from that list. This guy, he's good, he's good, he's good. 

01:09:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Jack and Jill is on that. I cannot believe they chose to put jack and jill on that list over some of the cobbler coming in 28 they have here wow, imdb rating the cobbler over that's my boy, that's just outrageous and ahead of zoan these are critic ratings, man. Yeah, dude, these guys don't know what they're talking about these are the guys who are using reverse line movement. 

01:09:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
These guys don't know what they're talking about. Rating this you know what this is? Espn Predictive Analytics Power Ranking giving the Celtics 98% chance to beat the Heat in the playoffs. Get these guys off my screen, bro. I want the real hard ratings from Twitter. 

01:10:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, I saw this one. Okay, this is insane From non-aesthetics things. Don't follow this account, I don't. I just I just saw it. This woman's charger during a six plus hour red eye flight. You, if you're listening to this and you're not watching on youtube, you're unfortunately not going to get this. Obviously, if somebody had this next to me on a red eye flight where I was trying to sleep, I would. I would lose my. You can also tell it's a red axe, it is dark, was trying to sleep. I would lose my mind. 

01:10:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You can also tell it's a red eye because it is dark, like they're not lying it's dark, someone in the back corner there sleeping in the background. 

01:10:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's very clearly a red eye, I mean-. 

01:10:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Why would you ever buy that charger Like? Why Would you? 

01:10:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ever have that charger. It has to go through your head to buy a flashing charger like that. Like to each their own. You're a psychopath. That's insane. Honestly, if I saw someone with this charger and I worked in law enforcement, I would put them on a list to be examined. 

01:10:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
If you have this charger and you listen to this show, tweet us a picture and then stop listening to the show. 

01:11:00 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
There's no way you have that charger. There's no way, there's no way. 

01:11:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I was just thinking in my head, though. I've had some bad red-eye flights before Some people who are loud, noisy Sometimes you get like a small child on a red-eye flight. Listen, I'm not going to be that guy that's like. But you know it's the overnight flight. You're trying to sleep, but this is being next to this. It doesn't matter where you are in proximity to this. You're just going to see these flashing lights going to drive you insane Like this. You're just going to see these flashing lights going to drive you insane. Like this is crazy person. Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. Um, jj, gruden, friend of the program. One draft prop I love is over under four and a half quarterbacks drafted in the first round caleb williams, jayden daniels, drake may, jj mccarthy, michael pennix, bo nicks these six are all capable of going first round. I love this over, okay, jj wait. 

01:11:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even better that, though, is grp wins underneath them. What website has that prop correct? 

01:11:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
they're fucking kidding me. Good luck trying to. First and foremost, if you're gonna post an obscure prop, at least post where it's at, so that like people aren't going on like a wild goose chase to find this prop. This is February 26th when he posted this. Secondly, maybe let's give a price associated with the four and a half quarterbacks, like I love over under four and a half quarterbacks. 

01:12:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even think that all five I don't think five will go in the first round. 

01:12:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't think so either. Typically speaking, you do tend to see some quarterbacks drop. Talk to Eric Eager about this before as well. 

01:12:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
McCarthy will probably go end of the first round or maybe someone reaches and takes either those other two busts. 

01:12:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Whether or not it's a good bet, I don't care I honestly don't care whether or not it's a good bet. 

01:12:41
We're in draft prop season. Post the book if you're going to post it, because, honestly, I looked in a million spots. I'm like, oh wow, we got these draft props. I couldn't find this anywhere. Not saying it doesn't exist, but I exhausted my resources to try to find it. Second of all, no price. Like it doesn't like at some point, just put attach a price to bets you give out. That's my. I just attach a price to the bets you want to give out. 

01:13:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I just attach a price to the bets you want to give out. I might actually make a wild call right now and say all six of those guys are going to be bust. 

01:13:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It could be Six for six bust. What do we consider? A bust, you'll know, because it's statistically improbable. 

01:13:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
If Caleb Williams is Jared Goff, is he a bust? 

01:13:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, so then they're all busts. In my opinionaleb williams is more likely to not win a super bowl than to win a super bowl. Would that make him a bust? Yeah, I'd say, none of those guys win a bowl because, typically speaking, these teams that are picking near the top are shit. 

01:13:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The bottom three it's going to be tough the top three. 

01:13:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's going to be bottom three jj m, Michael Penix Ponex. 

01:13:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't pretend to. I honestly don't know who's going to be a bust or not. I gave up a long time ago on trying to predict that. 

01:13:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well, Johnny, I'll tell you one thing that might absolutely fuck you here on this prediction. I think Knish said Caleb Williams would be a bust. No. 

01:14:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You might be on the wrong side of history here. 

01:14:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tough break dude. 

01:14:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, especially on the college football stuff, he's not the best. 

01:14:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, he's only one of our creators here at DIABOR for college football. Hey, whether you're following or fading, he's got something for you. 

01:14:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What go up next. Next tweet. 

01:14:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Next tweet. This guy's coming up a lot lately. This one was sent to me. Actually, it seems like Stephen Golden is ruffling a lot of feathers in the community. Stevie G, I think I met this guy at Bet Bash and I honestly don't remember well enough because I was drunk half of Bet Bash last year, but I think I did meet him. That's a true story. Donnie saw me playing at the craps table, probably for three days of a six-day trip. If you call out a better yet aren't willing to fade his picks, do you really believe he sucks? Seriously, I see a lot of people calling guys out on here, yet they'll never fade their picks. You know how much money you can make off a 44% long-term capper. It's better to fade a 44% capper than follow a 55% winner. Just be willing to fade if you're going to call someone okay. 

01:15:11 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What he means by this, which would be accurate, is if you call out a better and aren't willing to take his bets, then do you really believe he sucks? That would be different that would be true, but, however, taking bets is completely illegal. You should never do that and you can't yeah, we're not. 

01:15:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're not saying to be a bookmaker, you cannot be a bookmaker. 

01:15:28 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But so, so yeah, he's saying if he were to have said if you were call it a bet and aren't willing to take his action, then do you really believe he sucks, that would have been a true statement, would you agree? Yes, but the way he's saying it is, fade his picks. Now you're basically saying is he bad enough? Is he losing more, more than the vig? No, it would be like a six percent swing here for those. I know, I'm just doing calculations in my head. But for for you to fade his picks and win, if you think he's losing, all he has to do is just not out. Earn the vig. Yes, and he's losing. So he could even be picking. 

01:16:04
Let's say he's picking minus 110, he can be picking uh he can go 51 and 50 over the course of the season and lose money. Yeah, if you faded him, you would go 50 and 51 and lose even more money. Exactly so, because there's vig involved and you're actually paying juice to the book. If you're fading a guy's picks, you actually need to be he needs to be losing really badly. And, as we know, with the market, nobody is losing unless you're betting massive parlays. And if you're just betting straight wagers and picking up pit, like even if you're just taking rent, always I'm always taking pinnacle price, no matter what. Or I'm always taking whatever, not line shopping at all, not doing anything. He's doing the bare minimum. There's no way you're expected. 

01:16:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
ROI is less than minus 5% on straights Agreed. At the end of the day, you're right. If this was about booking, the better 100%. But most bettors do not lose because they pick at 44% or 45% or 40%. They lose because they pick close to 50% and they pay a VIG. And then, on top of that, they compound it by making bad betting decisions, like they bet parlays when they don't have an edge on the individual legs. They do not know how to manage their bankroll properly and they chase losses. So it's basically being a coin flipper, betting into a market where you need to not be a coin flipper, and then compounding those problems with bad bankroll management and bad bet types that make most of the pot. 

01:17:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And then they also say oh, I really like the kansas city chiefs, but I don't really want to bet them at minus 600, so I'll just same game parlay. I'm chiefs and mahomes to get a rushing touchdown. And then next thing, you know, chiefs win but mahomes didn't get that rushing touchdown. And there you go, bet's done tough break, tough break next one up is a doozy. Oh yeah, this is the uh imdb rotten tomatoes espn special. 

01:17:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The tweet heard around the gambling twitter world, I would say, uh, jeff goodman at goodman hoops. This is also a bet. Rhythm pick of the day 78.1 percent win probability on Alabama at Kentucky under. 

01:18:15 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Even if he made the points 166, it wouldn't even be a 78.1% win probability. Fyi. 

01:18:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Very curious how he I don't know if he's running some sort of simulation. I don't know what the hell's going on here, but that wouldn't even be. Okay At that, wouldn't even be Okay. 

01:18:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
The point of At that number of total. I'd be shocked if that math added up. 

01:18:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Listen, if a book is offering minus 110 on both sides of a pretty widely available game that has decent limits, like an Alabama-Kentucky college basketball game, would you do not ever have a 78% win probability.1. 0.1, 78.1 a policy it just doesn't happen, like for you can be directionally correct, right, which is very possible that it was here, even though this bet loss it's not about the bet winning or losing but you do not have a 26 edge on the bet bed, it's just it doesn't happen. So if this is you and you're modeling and you're getting some stuff where you're spinning out 20% edges, I mean, first of all, don't post it to Twitter, because people are gonna correctly point out what the problem is. Second of all, go back to the drawing board. Find a way to tighten that up, because what you're doing is very likely just producing garbage. Honestly, so tough one. But for those out there who do want to try their hand at modeling, you're going to not be off market by anywhere close to as much as this one, by anywhere close to as much as this one. 

01:19:48
Okay, final tweet from Jay Long long Twitter handle Replying to Greg Peterson of VEASAN Bro, there are times you can do all the research in the world and analyze the differences between two teams, but there are times you have to read the line as well and take what doesn't make sense, because Vegas gets the people like you who just read the better team here Again started with one like this and we're going to end the segment with one like this Forget about what other people think and what Vegas knows, yo no, no, this guy's actually right, bro. 

01:20:24 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Reading this again, he's saying it wrong, but he's actually right Go go. Paraphrase. He's basically saying this Bro, you can do all the research you want, but the number is the number. So they're just getting you because you think that Alabama's better than Kentucky, but the number is minus six. Because it's minus six, don't just go betting Alabama because you think they're the better team. 

01:20:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's actually right but If he had said it like that, which is not what he meant, I think that's what he meant. Scroll up. 

01:20:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Scroll up Zach. 

01:20:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Click that original tweet. 

01:20:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, but the first time I read this I didn't realize that. Oh, maybe I'm wrong. 

01:21:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's between Wake and Duke and he's calling out like a fishy line. This is why. 

01:21:09 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Okay, so he's saying that's when the smart people go with the line and take Wake. 

01:21:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, he's basically saying that. 

01:21:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's basically saying all of the public is on Duke, so because of that, I'm going to take Wake. Exactly Fair, but you know what? Yeah, you know what. I was wrong. 

01:21:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He said something that does actually make sense, but he didn't mean it stuck up for him right away and you weren't you weren't like ready to just bash him and whatever honest guy that you are. 

01:21:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But the evidence suggests- a very different click back in his timeline. It was oh, I try to have your back, jason, uh, five, five, nine, two, six, three, one, three oh man, all right, that's it. 

01:21:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
tweets that trigger us this week Got a plus EV or a minus EV? 

01:21:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I had a couple written down. Well, that's not going to do us any good. So I think recently I've been taking a little bit of a break from social media. Significant positive EV, I think, is to not actually check social media for an extended period of time, just to kind of get that reset in. I think a lot of times like especially people who are younger will just be only used to checking social media their whole life, like they never had a period of life when they were younger where they didn't exist or they didn't have cell phones you lose touch with a lot of like reality, like people's lives aren't as good as they're posting on social media. You're always going to be a little bit jealous, you're always going to think you're not doing enough. But sometimes good to just kind of like take a break. And then my negative EV move, which is just absolutely a negative EV move, and I and I continue to make it, but living in in living in a spot that has a tough winter, it's just such a negative we're having a good. 

01:22:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is back-to-back weeks of like don't live in the cold in winter, it's just it was. 

01:22:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
That was that given on last week's episode. 

01:22:53
Eagle, he it just. It's such a bad move here. You could just be some. And it's not about your own Happiness due to the weather. What I think it is is a little compounding effect of everybody. That kind of goes in because Everybody, no matter who it is, is happier when the weather is not like over, and this could be too hot as well. Right, so if it's a really hot, humid day, people are a little bit more miserable. If it's a very cold day, people are miserable. If it's a nice temperature day where you can come in, wear shorts, t-shirt, lounge clothes, whatever you want, wear a cap. You don't have to worry about the cold, you just go home, everyone's a little bit more happy and excited, and I think those are. If you could just get that weather all year round, people are just more upbeat when you get into the winter. Sometimes, like I, just I just feel it people are more miserable here I get it totally. 

01:23:43 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Uh, I understand it. I've just known it my whole life and I never do anything about it. 

01:23:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Same here, same here. 

01:23:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe one day I will. 

01:23:51 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I gotta get. Yeah, I gotta do something about this. 

01:23:54 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Very quick minus EV from me. Recently I've been paying way more attention to the amount of time that I spend on my phone. So there's apps obviously on your phone that tell you what your screen time is. I went back and started checking this stuff and I'm like holy shit, I spend an insane amount of time on my phone and it's a productivity killer. So recently and when I say recently, I'm talking about maybe a week and a half now I've really paid a lot of attention to this and honestly, I feel great. I've turned off a lot of notifications that I typically would get and I'd just swipe them away and like not even think anything of them. But what you don't realize is like when you're constantly getting bombarded with notifications, you actually just start checking your phone when there's like not even anything there because you're just so addicted to that. So turn off notifications that you don't need Unsubscribe from emails. Like I wake up in the morning and I have like 15 emails, all of which I just delete every morning. I don't even have any. 

01:24:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even like have notifications on for email. 

01:24:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, there you go. That's great, but, like for me, I do and I wake up and first thing I do when I get out of bed is I feel overwhelmed because I have all these unsubscribed from them all. Like I don't need all this shit. Set app limitations which you can do on your phone. I don't need to be on Instagram more than 15 minutes a day, like I honestly don't need to do that Technically, don't need to be on Instagram at all. 

01:25:14
I agreed 100% and then honestly, if you can live with it, try to set some like phone free times or locations in your house. So now when I'm down in my basement watching TV, I'll just leave my phone charging upstairs. It's no longer like a nuisance. I don't feel the need to go check it all the time. I think that's just generally something that people should be a little bit more cognizant of and listen. Maybe my situation doesn't pertain to you in particular, but at least do an audit of how often you're on your phone and then determine for yourself whether or not it's worthwhile. 

01:25:48 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Take a look at your advanced stats. 

01:25:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the same way I play golf, right Same way. 

01:25:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Rob plays golf. You've got to be checking your underlying metrics. I really hope everybody appreciated this episode and understood, you know, kind of what we were trying to do in the first half of the episode. This is call it a prequel. It's a very early part one. We are planning to do another episode where we can actually show off the product exactly how it works, how to use it and when it's more ready and full, like you know, fully ready to go. That episode hopefully comes in the next couple of weeks or months and when we do that, rob and I have saved a bunch of stuff in there where we're going to actually give out like some more actionable edges, tips, things like that. We're actually going to go book by book, things like that. So that will be an absolute banger of an episode. 

01:26:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You're not going to want to miss that one, so subscribe to the channel, of course, just for our guests next week. 

01:26:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
We need to get the 200 likes, right? 

01:26:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I honestly don't know if he's being honest or not, but we need the 200 likes. And if you're listening to this in audio form and you always listen in audio form we do appreciate it hop on over to youtube. Just click that subscribe button. Like the video as well. It goes a long way to helping us grow things, um. 

01:26:54 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So please, if you can do that, we don't want to disappoint our guests, for next, yeah, and then what we're doing right now with this product uh, just to close off here is, as people know, a lot of things. A lot of questions that we've been getting are oh, how know this edge is going to last? Well, what we're really trying to test out now is you know how many essentially subscribers we can get on this product before the edge starts to erode or before we start to notice some differences? So we've been opening up different tranches in different periods. We are opening up, like, another period right now where we're getting a bunch of users. 

01:27:25
It's going to's gonna be very limited, so there's not going to be a lot of spots available, um, but that is why, if you're interested, if you are currently betting props right now seriously and I'm not talking about people who are, you know, going to be misusing it and and betting, uh, from like a limited, uh, ten dollar fan duel account, moving all the lines, like, if you're a serious, better who's making money, wants to make to make more money, or if you're, you know, someone who's, let's say, getting just getting up to that level now, where you're like, you know what I can actually do this and I'm ready to kind of take the next step reach out. Especially if you're handling player props right now. Even if you're not and you're looking to get into it, reach out. So the email is contact at betstampapp. Zach's going to leave it in the description, put it on the screen, or you DM us direct on Twitter at Betstamp. 

01:28:11
Those are the two ways to get in touch. Spots are going to go. So if you watch this episode when it comes out, which will be this Thursday, please try to get that email in by the weekend and then hopefully you can secure a spot at least on the test right there. So appreciate you guys all. I hope everyone enjoyed the tweets that triggered us. I know I certainly did as well. 

01:28:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it was a great episode today. Of course, smash that like button down below. Make sure you're subbed here. If you're listening in audio form, please rate and review 5 Stars. We'll catch everyone next week here on Circus. 

01:28:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Big guest next week. See you, guys, you.