Welcome back to our daily write-up on MLB player props! We cover everything from total bases bets, strikeout props and NRFI/YRFI predictions to home runs picks. Come back every weekday for great off-market MLB picks that we identify, and bet all of them over the long run to grow your bankroll!
How We Make Our Picks
Our proprietary Betstamp player prop comparison tool generates our player prop picks. It identifies bets where the odds offered are significantly higher than the true probability, known as Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting (Click HERE to learn more about what +EV Betting is!!). Our data and math-driven approach has won users MILLIONS over the past 3 years, and we aim to uncover valuable, mis-priced bets across various sports to provide disciplined, sustainable profit to users!
DET @ LAA - 6:40 PM EST
Our Pick: Michael Stefanic UNDER 1.5 Total Bases -155 @Fanatics/PointsBet (Click HERE To Sign Up To PointsBet!)
Edge: 7.04% Expected Value
This pick is a good value because the true line in the market is at -186, while PointsBet is at -155, providing bettors with a 7.04% Expected Value. Michael Stefanic's season stats further bolster this choice; with a .238 AVG, .275 SLG, and just 19 hits over 80 at-bats, Stefanic hasn't been showing much strength at the plate. Additionally, in his last 10 games, he has only managed 5 hits and a single extra-base hit, further indicating a strong bias towards the UNDER 1.5 Total Bases. This data underscores the likelihood of him staying under this threshold, making it a compelling and statistically backed pick.
Review: Click HERE to see our PointsBet review, promotions and more!
CLE @ KC - 6:40 PM EST
Our Pick: Gavin Williams OVER 15.5 Pitching Outs -120 @BetRivers (Click HERE To Sign Up!)
Edge: 7.35% Expected Value
This pick is a good value because the true line in the market is at -106 for 16.5, while BetRivers offers it at -120, providing bettors with a 7.35% Expected Value. This attractive differential suggests that betting on Gavin Williams to exceed 15.5 pitching outs is a statistically sound decision. Analyzing Williams' season stats, he has pitched 47.1 innings over 10 games, averaging just above 4.7 innings per start. Given his consistent strikeout numbers (52 SO, 9.89 K/9), there is substantial potential for him to achieve the needed outs, making this pick even more compelling.
Review: Click HERE to see our BetRivers review, promotions and more!
COL @ MIA - 8:40 PM EST
Our Pick: Roddery Munoz UNDER 4.5 Total Strikeouts -125 @Betway (Click HERE To Sign Up To Betway!)
Edge: 5.98% Expected Value
This pick is a good value pick because the true line in the market is at -143, while Betway is offering the UNDER at -125. This provides bettors with a 5.98% Expected Value. Roddery Munoz's season stats support this pick, as he has averaged only 3.9 strikeouts per game (70 strikeouts across 17 games) and has struggled with a 5.98 ERA. Furthermore, over his last 10 games, Munoz has recorded 36 strikeouts in 45.2 innings, averaging just 3.6 strikeouts per game.
Review: Click HERE to see our Betway review, promotions and more!
Maximize Your Sports Betting Winnings
One of the key things to keep in mind when betting Positive Expected Value picks is to make sure to properly manage your bankroll & only bet the correct percentage based on the edge identified. Click HERE to learn more about BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!
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