00:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
On this week's episode of Circles Off presented by Pinnacle Sportsbook. We're going to get into Super Bowl strategy, everything Super Bowl related, main markets, props, what you should be doing in the week leading up to Super Bowl. I'm also going to talk about one thing that sharp bettors love to say during Super Bowl week that I totally disagree with. All that and more. This week's episode of Circles Off. Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 87. Here on the Hammer Betting Network, rob Pizzola joined by Johnny from Betstamp. 

00:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Good morning, good afternoon, whatever time of day it is. You're listening. We are primed, ripped and ready. We released one Super Bowl episode in the past. 

00:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was actually episode number one it's been two years, man, johnny Bauer. It's been two years, johnny Bauer. 

00:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Episode number one we released, and that episode we actually released a couple days prior to the Super Bowl. So you know, by the time it came out it was kind of a lesson for us, like it wasn't as impactful. So so right now, what we're going to do is we're going to go through a few of the same principles that we went through and then a bunch of new ones. We're going to relate it to directly this Super Bowl, chiefs versus Eagles and a lot of strategy stuff. So no picks right now. And then I know, rob, we do have something coming for the picks, if you want to plug that quick. 

01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
For sure. So we will be doing a live NFL props show on the Forward Progress YouTube channel. This is Wednesday of Super Bowl week, so next Wednesday, after you're watching this, 12 to 3 pm Eastern time. A lot of people who have been listening to Circles Off for a long time know that we did this last year, me and Johnny in studio. We welcomed in a bunch of people it was a four and a half hour episode Felt like I actually ran a marathon when I was done recording that. 

01:44
Circles Off prides itself on being more of an educational channel. We do a lot of strategy discussions, we do a lot of guest interviews of people that are connected in the industry and we kind of distance ourselves from giving away picks. I know there's still a market for that. We're definitely going to do that. Johnny is going to join me to give his favorite Super Bowl prop bet, as well as a number of other people. So head on over to the Forward Progress channel on YouTube. You can find it at Forward Progress HQ F-W-D for Forward Forward Progress HQ. And that's 12 to 3 pm Eastern time. Next Wednesday, with myself hosting Quick trivia question for you. I listened back to episode one to have circles off. It was audio only. I listened back to it and I didn't start by saying welcome to circles off. 

02:34 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I say at odds podcast you remember? 

02:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
of course you're listening to at odds with rob and johnny. We thought we were so clever when we came up with that. We're like, oh yeah, at yeah, at odds, like we're at odds with each other and this, and that there's like 48 million of those that exist and they're all sports gambling or some sort of like game. We're like how are we ever going to rank for anything? Yeah, with adults it was a good move. 

02:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I think we were that podcast for like was it one or one? 

03:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I didn't listen back to episode two, but we're on episode number 87 here and we did switch the name to circles off, which is a. We paid homage, homage, homage, homage, homage to pinnacle sportsbook. Pinnacle is the world's sharpest sportsbook, now available for ontario bettors. Definitely check them out for the super bowl. Find out what professional bettors have known for decades Pinnacle's, where the best bettors play. You must be 19 plus in Ontario, not available to US bettors. And again, super Bowl week. Everyone wants to bet the Super Bowl. I get it, huge game. You're going to be with your friends, your family, having a party, but please play responsibly. Bet within your limits. Episode number 87 is a banger though. Like these, these, these numbers in the 80s, like active nfl or travis kelsey in the super bowl okay, 87 banger. Behind the counter, zach's like favorite player ever wanted him to. 

04:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He wanted to introduce. 

04:01 - Zack Phillips (Other)
He wanted no, no not, not my favorite player ever. Actually, you know who my favorite player ever was matt sundin. 

04:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, sundin the absolute goat, matt sundin. I take. I would take a bullet for mats. Never met him in my life. I would take a bullet for rats. 

04:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Um, my, my grandpa with his company. They used to have a box at the roger. Um what did it used to be called? Sorry? 

04:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
skydome. 

04:23 - Zack Phillips (Other)
No, no, no the arena. 

04:25 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Scotiabank ACC. 

04:28 - Zack Phillips (Other)
So we're there watching, and we just ended up Watching the Leafs game In the same box as Bobby Orr. 

04:33
And I was like I was like four years old, bobby Orr comes up to me and asks me he's talking to me about the game. And my grandpa said the whole time I was just in love with hockey and Bobby Orr was trying to talk to me and I was just pissed off why is this guy fucking talking to me? I'm trying to watch the game? And he says who's your favorite player? And I turned to him with the most disgusted look and was like Matt Sundin, obviously you idiot. But no, this one's just good, because the introduction you can give to this guy Number 87. Yes, world Cup gold medalist, sure, world Championship gold medalist. World Junior gold medalist, world Junior silver medalist, stanley Cup champion three times and, of course, two-time Olympic gold medalist. Yes, for sure, it is a great. No. Calder trophy, though, it is a medalist. Yes, for sure, sidney Crosby, it is a great no. 

05:26 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Calder trophy. Though it is a great resume, no Calder trophy. 

05:28 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And you know why He'll never get that? Is that because of the lockout season? Lockout season. So who took it from him? Well, it, was Ovi. 

05:37 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, but who took? But would he have even got it if Ovi wasn't in it? These are questions we'll never know. We'll never know the answer to you know who was in the voting Wojtek Wolski. 

05:46 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Wolski Wow, but you know how much money Sidney Crosby makes per year? 8.7 mil, 8.7 mil, oh yeah. 

05:53 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Such an underpayment and he just he thought he got a good deal but he played himself to get that number. He Very famous Funny story about Matt Sundin. A buddy of mine actually claims that when Sundin came back to Toronto playing for the Canucks and he scored that shootout winner that my buddy claims that he has the exact puck from that. But it's been unverified. I don't believe that for one second. You don't believe it. I don't believe that for one second. No, well, this is what he claims. 

06:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We're definitely going off the rails here and like hockey things, but one of my most favorite, like matt sundin's 500th goal, like the overtime winner I have a piece of sports memorabilia with the, with a piece of the game used. 

06:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Net from that game. Wow certified you sure about that it's. I mean unless I got, unless I got ripped off by framework we. 

06:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We actually need to put the link in the in the youtube description here, because the 500th goal for matt sundin like thinking about it, I still get shivers. Do you know who? He scored it on Mika Kiprasov who, by the way, had like a great glove hand and just completely whiffed on like a slap shot from the electric, though Anyone unless you hate the Leafs. 

06:58 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What stick did he score it with? 

06:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know what stick he scored it with scored it with. 

07:07 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Well. It was a blue and black east in cnc stealth which I also had at the time it was an ot winner oh short-handed hat trick 500th goal you. You could not picture like a better electric wait, I do not know what this is, zach. Uh, I'm pretty sure I've seen it. I just watched it was ot watch after. 

07:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, it was to complete the hat trick. Win the game in ot short-handed four on three. 

07:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I do want to give credit to one more, number 87 gronk not gronk, not reggie wayne, not jordy nelson, but the og of celebrations, joe horn. I don't even know who. That is okay. 2003. Joe horn scores a touchdown for the new orleans saints from aaron. Aaron brooks throws the touchdown pass, he goes behind the field goal post. He's negotiating a contract at the moment that he does this and he gets out a flip phone a cell phone. 

07:59
I know what this is now yeah and pretends he's answering a call about like and took it out from under the field goal the amount of preparation that goes into something like first, I wonder if he had a cell phone on both sides of the field for one. 

08:12
imagine he scored on the other side of the field and he goes and there's no cell phone there. He must have had one on both sides of the field. But like this was unheard of at the time, like no one, this was, it's the best, it's like the most. It started a string of just crazy over the top celebrations, like Terrell Owens with like throwing popcorn in his face and stuff like that. Nobody did this stuff until Joe Horn pulled the cell phone and then, about 15 years later, roger Goodell said no, no, no more of this, no, no more of this bullshit, no more of this bullshit. Yeah, unsportsmanlike taunting for this. I mean, this was the best stuff in the NFL. Anyways, nfl. 

08:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Super Bowl strategy. So first off, we're going to talk about the big game, the actual game Spread money, money line, total. All right, first things first. A lot of movement already. So we had an opening line. You got essentially okay, depending on where you want to count the opening line, closing line, yada yada yada. You had roughly a minus two and a half. What do you want to call what's a fair consensus? Yeah, two and a half. What do you want to call it what's a fair consensus? 

09:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, two and a half, I mean, there wasn't really a consensus, let's say minus two Sure Over to now plus one settling one and a half. 

09:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So basically what that means is the Eagles open slight underdog. They took a lot of money and now the Eagles are a favorite. If you want to bet the Eagles right now, you go over to pinnacle sportsbook. They got the best line in the market. They are screaming for that. Philadelphia eagles money minus one, minus oh six, at the exact time that's recording, as always. If you want to actually check the real-time live odds, just head on over to bet stamp, download the app and then it'll tell you the best odds. You can send any of the books that you have, but right right now, pinnacle's got the best odds. So what does this mean, rob, in terms of this actual line movement? How is this different from any other game? 

10:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So the difference is we are recording this on a Tuesday, it'll be airing on a Thursday, but we're a week and a half before the Super Bowl gets played. A week and a half and there are three sports books right now that are comfortably taking six-figure bets With re-bet. With a re-bet, this does not happen on a regular NFL Sunday. On a regular NFL Sunday takes till about 11 am 12, an hour before game time, before you can get down $ hundred thousand dollars on the side. Pinnacle right now is taking a hundred thousand dollars on the side in this game. So what does that mean? That means that they are very confident in their price for the game. Now it's a little bit different because they're going to take more action on this game over the course of any other year and they're enticing action one way or another, but they're very confident in their price. 

11:12
This is not to say that you're not going to win your bet if you bet on the Eagles or the Chiefs or whatever. This is not even me telling you to not place a bet. Again, to each their own. Everyone has different goals for the Super Bowl. The majority of the audience watching or listening to this wants to win money on the Super Bowl. That's why you're watching, that's why you're listening. If you're going to bet into a market that is taking 100K on a bet that is extremely difficult to beat in the long run Extremely difficult Again not saying you can't win one individual bet you might. You might place a bet on the Eagles. They might win the Super Bowl You'd be like oh Rob, you're an idiot. You told me not to bet on the side in the game. It's not what I'm saying. Just understand that this is the type of bet where, if you make it over and over and over and over in the long run you are extremely likely to lose money in the long run. 

12:06
The beauty about the Super Bowl is we don't just have to bet who's going to win the game or the total. We get a million props. We get so many more props than usual. We get novelty props, we get cross-sport props, we get all sorts of stuff that we can bet on these games. So, starting with the main markets, you might think you have a such a strong read on this game. Oh, casey's going to kill him. Best quarterback. The Eagles haven't played anybody all year. 

12:32
You might think the opposite. Oh, the Eagles so good at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is exactly how Tampa Bay beat Kansas City a couple years ago. All of that's factored into the line, is the reality of the situation. Everyone knows this. So you're betting into one of the most efficient markets in the world. Understand that. 

12:51
Now, if you're getting an off market price, that's a very different story. It's rare. Most books are going to converge to a price for the Super Bowl. But if you see Pinnacle offering a certain price on a book, so on this Super Bowl main money line side total, and you see another sports book that's way off that number, you could have an edge betting the way off market number. You always will. This applies to pretty much any major market in North America. But just be aware of that. A lot of people get hung up on. You know, my friends ask me all the time. You probably get the same stuff too. We bet, we do well betting, and it's like who's going to win the Super Bowl? I don't know. Look at the odds. The game's like a coin flip. I don't know. I have no idea who's going to win the Super. That's not how I'm looking to make my money in the next couple of weeks. 

13:43 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, at the implied odds. Right now we're looking at, like you know, eagles with roughly a 52% chance, kansas city with 48. For all intensive purposes. It's a coin flip. So basically, what you're going to want to do there is just make sure that if you're betting on the game, just line shop for the best price. That's the only way you're going to get an edge there. There's no number of like. 

14:00
Yes, you might get some more late moves due to injuries, stuff like that, but for the most part, this is where it's settled currently. The limits are high. It might see some more movement throughout the rest of the next week and a half, but you're not really originating this. I don't think that the average person should be like. I have an opinion on this game. This game is going to move. I don't think you should bet the Eagles anticipating a big move or the Chiefs anticipating a big move. So on the actual game, there you go, it's done. That's all you got to do. Take a look. I would even go as far as to say wait on this one until the actual Sunday of game day, because then you just know what the final closing line is going to be and you don't have to worry about anything else. You can just make sure you get your bet in and you have a good price at that game. 

14:50 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You can obviously do that on Betstamp. You go in, put in all your books that you have access to and go for it. Well, like piggybacking off that, so like the first thing you're going to want to do and again I'm preaching to the choir of people out there that they want to have some advantage betting the Super Bowl. You want to win money. This is why a lot of us bet. Not everybody bets to win money. Some people just bet for recreation and entertainment and again, we've always said that there's nothing wrong with that. If that's your approach and this is entertainment money, go for it. 

15:15
But for those who want to win money, I would get set up in the week of the Super Bowl by finding as many outs as I can personally, because you're going to have tons of markets and you're going to have all these different sports books who are going to offer different prices on these markets. You're going to have I mean, not as much as you used to, but you're going to have some arbitrage opportunities between books. If that's something that you're interested in, guarantee yourself money, because one book has this price, the other has this, both that plus money. There's other ways. Arbitrage works as well, but you're going to have 30 different sports books if you're like stretching your limits at that point. But if you can shop around for different prices, use Pinnacle, use a few other books. 

16:12
Always bet the best number. Look for when one sports book is off market relative to the other. That's the first step I would do in terms of getting ready for the Super Bowl. Like I cannot preach that enough. Obviously, for those who've listened for a long time, you guys know you guys and girls know how much we preach line shopping. It's important, but this is these are like it's a little thing. That's gonna take you a small amount of time to get an edge. 

16:41 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, I mean I'll say that as it is, also as someone who is currently running a company as we do promote for sports betting legal sports betting right now with bet stamp, and one thing to note is like this is really the best week to sign up to sports books. Um, obviously, you want to sign up at any time, but this week in particular and I what I mean is like the seven days leading up is going to be like typically the best offers and also the lowest like deposit minimum offer. So you'll have a lot of books that give, like you know, deposit in 25, get 200 free bet, deposit in 50, get 250 in bet credits, whatever it might be, and I think those ones are perfect, even if you don't have the biggest bankroll, to just be able to make sure you have everything. If you're looking at any site right now, there is going to be tons of props on every single sports book, so you're going to find something on every book. Even if it's not the best odds for the game, you're going to find some prop that has good odds for that you might want to bet. So what I would do is, I mean, happy to help anyone that's looking for it, also Sending out promos, stuff like that. 

17:45
We've got a couple exclusive ones that, um, either jack up the like wave the rollover or jack up the deposit amount, stuff like that, trying to think of where I would want this contact to go. But if you guys are, if you want help with anything, custom bonus offers, if you're looking, hey, I've got a grand to put into this super bowl and I want to double that. On deposit matches, what's the best value? Email you can email circlesoff at betstampapp. I'm going to go ahead and make that URL after the show so you can email circlesoff at betstampapp and I personally will respond to all of the emails and try to help everyone out. That I can. In terms of that, will respond to all of the emails and, uh, try to help everyone out. That I can in terms of that. 

18:27
Um, you know, just in terms, like it's, I don't really even I feel bad. Like promoting, yes, if you like, I'm gonna send you guys affiliate links. You're gonna sign up, our company's gonna get a uh, you know, a flat rate off of that. But outside of that, just in general, man, like what a time it is to sign up. I'm already seeing the super bowl offers come like flow through my inbox right now. It is a big year. If you're in Ontario specifically, this is like the first um Superbowl that we have here. Yep and um yeah, man, like everyone is kind of going going nuts for this one. So I would say, from what I see early, like you probably would be able to again, this is just our region. If you had like two grand or 2500 to put in, you're easily getting that up to like five grand in match bonuses and you have a chance to earn some money off that after the super bowl. 

19:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Worst case, you lose a couple super bowl bets and you'll still probably end up either break even or slight positive again if you're practicing the right measurements and responsible gaming I want to pick up on that um, because you mentioned like oh, if you have a thousand bucks to 2000 bucks, 2,500, it's very important you set a limit for yourself in betting. It's bankroll management 101. You can go back and listen to the episode that we did on bankroll management or watch it. It's actually one of our best ones, I thought, in terms of outlining how you should manage a bankroll, how you should stake your bets and so on and so forth. But always bet within your limits, whatever you can afford to lose. 

19:52
I think, depending on how you bet the Super Bowl like there's a top-down approach, bottom-up approach there could be a way where things go catastrophically wrong. And I'm not trying to scare you, but if you're a type of person who thinks that the Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl and you really like the Eagles on the spread and you bet a bunch of props, you're probably going to tie a lot of the props that you bet to that Eagles outcome. So you're going to start betting overs on Jalen Hurts rushing yards over, on AJ Brown receiving yards under on Patrick Mahomes, whatever, and this is a common mistake. I can speak through experience of having a Super Bowl that was like this, where you feel very strongly about the outcome, then you start to bet props that are all tied to that same outcome and essentially you set yourself up for a ton of profit if you're right, but also a disaster, and you need to understand and set limits for yourself. You should have a bankroll for your Super Bowl week in terms of what you are willing to lose in an absolute worst case scenario, and you hope that it doesn't happen. It probably won't get there, but people tend to just accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. I've seen this happen before and again I speak from experience in this happening, where you just start to think like, yeah, this is a great bet, this is a great bet, this is a great bet, this is a great bet. Before you know it, you've now accumulated way more than you're able to actually lose overall and in the worst possible scenario, you go bust and your goal as a better is just to not go bust, really Like give yourself a fighting chance and, as Johnny said, around Super Bowl week you're getting promos, you're getting odds boost. You can supplement a lot of your losses with what the sports books are offering you to bet. So just be smart about it, set a limit. 

21:33
Try not to go overboard with it, and I would personally suggest, unless you have the means to do so, do not tie all of your bets to the same outcome of the game. It can be catastrophic, let's put it that way. Right, you like the Chiefs? All right, you're going to bet Mahomes over passing yards, travis Kelsey any time touchdown score. Maybe Jarek McKinnon any time touchdown score. Someone else over on yards. You don't get that outcome and you get a super bowl where the chiefs get smoked by the bucks. Goodbye, good night. You know what I'm saying, so just be aware of that. I mean, it sucks. It's a realistic possibility, um, but just bet within your limits responsibly. Know what you can lose. 

22:18 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Know your limit, play within it. 

22:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Know your role and shut your mouth. Zach, you jabroni, you jabroni. You guys like that. That was the best man I grew up through the WWE attitude era Like the Rock, stump Colts, vvos. 

22:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He commented on it on Twitter. 

22:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I couldn't see straight on sunday night, but when I got that push alert of like kelsey telling the, the cincinnati mayor, where to go and I clicked that I was died. I watched that 10 times over. That was just like such a great throw you, jabroni, which was the best part. Like it tied it all together. So good love, travis kelsey. The best, yeah, the best. We need more of that in sports yeah, the rock commented on twitter. 

23:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He said he appreciated that. He said why, oh, like no, yo roll no, yo, no, your, it's clear. 

23:08 - Zack Phillips (Other)
The rock doesn't deserve to do that. 

23:10 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Let's go leave let's get out of here. Yeah, well, didn't you see his video on that? He said he asked yeah he did ask. 

23:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He he wanted to swear and they, they and sheldon keith. So for the story, the rock was in toronto at a leafs game and he was tasked with like pumping up the crowd during one of the breaks and the historical leafs chant is go, leafs, go right. And basically the rock was in the dressing room and he asked the head coach of the leafs if he could say like let's fucking go, or something like that. And sheldon keith, the head coach, basically said like I probably wouldn't like be swearing in this type of environment, so kind of threw him off because that's what he wanted to do and go out there. So he went out there and he was put on the spot and he started a let's go, leafs. 

23:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Chant, which never happens now it's not that bad, but it's like you know, like new york jets they have the channel like j e t s jets jets. Imagine like going to a jets game and then starting let's go exactly. 

24:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just it's odd, you're gonna, you're gonna chant it because you're not gonna not do it, but it's just a little bit odd. So, anyways, the rock is an absolute legend. I'm not here for any rock. Slander and travis kelsey is an absolute legend. I'm not here for any Rock. Slander and Travis Kelsey is an absolute legend, for that as well. 

24:22 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So let's recap quick we have if you want to bet on the full game, your main edge there is you're just going to line shop and pick off the best price you can. If you want to bet on the total or the spread, exact same deal. And then if you want to make the most amount of money you're going to make, I'll go as far as say is going to be through the bonuses and promotions right now for Super Bowl week. So if you are starting with a small bankroll, that's a must-go. If you're starting with a bigger bankroll, you already have five sites. Take a peek around Again, send an email. 

24:51
I'll be happy to take a look and see if there's anything that you don't have that you might be able to there. See if there's anything that, like you don't have that you might be able to. There's a lot of new sports books that pop up, you know, every couple months there might be oh, this book launched in Colorado, this book launched in New Jersey. Take a look, maybe, if you're more experienced, open up one or two more and there you go. 

25:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Maybe it might be extra 500 or extra 700 bucks, depending on what it is. You're literally going to have books that give you free money. So you, you free money for this. So you're gonna have like books that will say that will let you bet. Will there be a point scored in the game? Like it's a guarantee? Yeah, just a promotional bet, exactly. They just want to get you in the door. 

25:26
Now listen, I'm not saying you're gonna get rich off of this stuff. Usually there's like a limit 50 bucks, 100 bucks and, if you're sure, if you're a five thousand dollar, better, this is not for you. This is not the way you're going to bet the Super Bowl. But for a lot of people out there, the majority of the audience. We know what the average bet size is in North America. It's in and around the $20 range. 

25:45
This is a no-brainer. You go in the door, you make a bet that settles Right after the Super Bowl. You just made yourself 50 bucks. You just made yourself 100 bucks. You cannot lose it. So it's not a scam, it's not like something that you need to avoid. It's literally there and designed to get you betting at that sports book. 

26:09
Take advantage of it, take advantage of his man and, like we've done the conversation about boosts before, like the sports book on super bowl sunday is especially not creating odds boosts to try to trap you or stuff that they know is going to lose. This is a promotional tool to get you in the door. They're giving you, for the most part, very good evie on a bet to get you in the door and to get you betting. Don't fall prey to, like the conspiracy theories. We're in a time now where people just they can't admit that they just lost a game Like I've been betting sports A long time Referees Make lots of shitty decisions In every game. 

26:54
Does that mean that they are fixing the games or have a vested interest in one team winning? Or that at the half they check their cell phones and there's a text message from some sort of you know sportsbook operator in las vegas that says hey, buddy, you know we need this, this outcome. No, it can't be, johnny. It literally cannot. Could be, it literally cannot be. So take advantage of these good ev boost, johnny, don't say things like that. 

27:21 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, you're, you're pandering to the could be. I listen, I'm not saying that it is, I'm not saying that it isn't, I don't know, and I'm saying like to to say that it's a hundred percent not okay, that's fair. That's that you don't like. That's kind of like you know. Do you understand probability like there's a chance? I'm not saying it's high, but there's a chance I'm not saying it's high, but there's a chance. 

27:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's a lot, it's a one in. Uh, there's a lot of zeros in the denominator. Do I think that the NFL is fixed? 

27:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No. Do I think that there could be scenarios in which some refs may have bet on the games? Yes. Do I think that has at any point happened in the NFL? 

27:55 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yes, but I happen in the nfl? Yes, well, I don't. But I don't think that the games are fixed. 

27:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I definitely don't think it's like what people are saying, like that I don't, you know, I I don't think it's feasible for like okay, definitely not vegas calling it an outcome, that's not how it works anyway. 

28:08
So that wouldn't be it. But yeah, no, there's definitely a chance that, like the, there's bias with the officials and stuff like that, but then there's also a chance that there's bias from the officials. That's not related to a fix of the game, of course, just in relation to like a bad call or like a at home stuff like that. 

28:23 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like people are infuriated by the personal foul on the Bengals player for shoving Mo Like that's a penalty, that's a clear cut penalty. 

28:31 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Like that's like the most clear personal foul that I've seen. He was clearly out of bounds. That gets called every time? 

28:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, this is a different conversation. But the whole argument of like oh, as the referee, you got to understand the situation. The game is on the line, how do you call that? 

28:49 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's like, no, the rules are the rules as a fan as the player, you got to understand the situation and know the game's on the line. 

29:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But as a fan, you might be upset that you didn't get the drama at the end of the game and but like the rules are the rules. The rule in the first quarter is the same as the rule on the last play of the game. It doesn't change things like I don't. I'll never understand that. I I don't get that like you got to swallow the whistle at that point. Understand what's on the line here. It's like no't, just like you don't just change the rules. Imagine playing any other game. 

29:20 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, but that's what they do in all sports, like in the NHL. They just don't call penalties in playoffs. 

29:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I agree. Look, watch the final two minutes of an NBA game. I can swear to you. There's times where the officials just get together and they're like Because they don't want to be free throws. 

29:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
What about that? 

29:35 - Zack Phillips (Other)
LeBron James massacre. That's the most embarrassing professional sporting moment for someone to ever be considered one of the greatest players of all time that I've ever seen of anybody ever. That was a disgusting act by LeBron James. 

29:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Here we go. We got Skip Bayless behind the glass today, skip. 

29:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Roll a pair. What are you doing? Through a temper tantrum, grabbing people, the game's going to overtime. Sack up. You doing? Through a temper tantrum, grabbing people, the game's going to overtime. Yeah, but he didn't sack up. They get foul. Pull up your shirt, I don't care, put your big boy pants on and go win the game in overtime. That was the most disgusting act of all time I don't disagree with you I was a pretty clear foul I don't disagree. 

30:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Next thing we know it doesn't matter. Next thing we know zach's. Uh what's your at zach phillyilly on Twitter. 

30:17 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
No, no, real, Zach Real, skip Phillips. 

30:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
At Zach Philly on Twitter is going to be recording a video of him walking through his kitchen and dumping his LeBron James jersey into the garbage can and walking out. All like pre-orchestrated. That tangent here, that Skip Bayless video of him throwing his Dak Prescott jersey With the huffing and puffing with the. With the video starts with him in the hallway. You can see him waiting for a cue that the video is rolling. Then you hear like some sort of clap which they could have just cut out of this video, by the way, like but it's like three seconds in there's just like a clap pounding at a table or counter or something and he walks in like showing the prescott jersey, throws it in the garbage like with the most unnecessary for no one would ever throw it like it's the most. 

31:11
I'm actually uncomfortable watching that and then storms out of the room, obviously stops recording, takes the jersey out of the garbage. It's right back in the closet again. Like what an embarrassing moment, like it was so tough to watch. I like natural stuff, like if someone's naturally angry you're watching a live video, they're naturally upset. I get it. Skip Bayless shivers, but Braun's good Braun's good. 

31:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
He's also like like dude. 

31:39 - Zack Phillips (Other)
that guy's by far the goat of nba no, are you out of your goddamn mind right now, dude? 

31:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no like the guy's still. He's still currently playing and he's still yeah, because he just grabs garbage minutes in the fourth quarter puts up 20 here we go. Oh, I got 30 last night. 

31:53 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Congrats on the 30 piece, but you lost by 25. You're out of the playoffs. 

31:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Lebron and he's still good lebron winning titles against that golden state warriors team like it's you, you can't listen. I don't like lebron james but you cannot argue like the quality of the player that he was at his he was he's still good. 

32:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
You guys know when lebron was drafted, right? 

32:16 - Zack Phillips (Other)
2003, you know what year we're in 2023. Johnny still, he's still good johnny, he's the goat, would you rather? Would you rather go to the bar you take? 

32:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
your? No, we've seen this. It doesn't matter, that's not how it is, and you have success all six times or go home 10 times. 

32:31 - Zack Phillips (Other)
And you only made, you only got there four well, obviously you'd rather win six. 

32:36 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
however well, that doesn't mean that doesn't the best we're not getting into the championship argument either. 

32:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now, that triggers me, that triggers me big time, bro. 

32:44 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
this guy literally won a chip and the second best player on his team was Anderson Verjao. 

32:50 - Zack Phillips (Other)
It's true, that is confirmed. 

32:52 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And if you're going to say no, I don't think Verjao is second, he might have been third. Maybe make the argument that he was third. 

33:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was definitely a massive gap between the two teams at that point. 

33:03 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Massive no. Braun was legit on Cleveland Obviously, went to Miami, had other players. Then he was back legit again. That guy's actually the GOAT. Braun's the GOAT, I'll give it to him. He's still. It's not even about it all at his peak. He was this at his peak. He's absolutely amazing. This guy's still playing. That's what you guys don't understand. 

33:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's still no, I I'm not saying like, I'm not, I get drafted in 2003 yeah he's still playing. Yeah, so is tom brady. He's garbage. What do you want me to tell you? 

33:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
no, but yeah no, and brady's the goat he just won. He's won a super bowl two okay, we can't, I'm gonna get. 

33:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So. He is the goat based off of career achievements. Yes, is tom brady the greatest quarterback ever? No, I'm gonna stand by that. He's the best football player I cannot take away his rings. But let's look through every one of those runs and how impactful the defense was in those Super Bowl runs, he literally went to more. Super Bowls. I know I'm not, I'm not, he's amazing. 

34:02 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Listen, this is like when he was on the Pats. I know they had good teams. They didn't make the playoffs. For one season. It was when he tore his ACL. 

34:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, matt Castle went 10-6. 

34:14 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Didn't make the playoffs, but that's what I'm saying. Like Brady was so good. 

34:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He's amazing. He's amazing, don't get me wrong. Longevity, yeah, it's very hard to argue that he's not the greatest of all time, but when I'm thinking, about it. Oh, jim, like I I would take Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady. 

34:30 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, if, he does it for another, like he won't replicate that. And there you go. That's, that's all it is it's about. For me, longevity is is super important, and I know it's. There's different ways to judge the greatest of all time for me, doing it for one year, like you know. How many guys had a had a good year in sports, in all different sports? How many guys had a sick year? A lot. How many guys had a sick decade? Not many. And then how many had a sick two decades? 

34:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
the one thing I will say about brady he was a great teammate and he was great for the organization because he always was willing to take less than he was actually worth and that's part of what makes him the goat in so many's eyes. But like patrick mahomes is like 40 million a year in that range you cannot build a team like what happens if patrick Mahomes goes down and they have to replace him with a backup quarterback. Like that team is a lot like they're a dumpster fire of a team. That's not to say they don't have like some individual talent. They do. They have Chris Jones Like they have good players, right, travis Kelsey still a great player, but relative to offensive line, fairly solid Relative to the rest of the league. 

35:40
There's just not that much talent around these guys. Like look at the NFL nowadays you either have a quarterback that's getting paid peanuts on a rookie deal with a team that's absolutely stacked, like the Eagles, for example, like the Bengals last year or you have the quarterback that's getting paid a ton and he's got to be elite but his team is just not the caliber of the rest of the teams. And Brady was constantly taking lower than market value restructuring contract. Great teammate dumped a lot of that money into crypto. You know poor guy. 

36:18 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Are we even factoring in the fact that he broke up with his wife? Well, listen one week later was dating a 20 years younger girl supermodel. 

36:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I will say this, factoring this in here brady has endeared himself a lot more to me since he left new england, so like there's a little bit of bitterness here, because I was sick and tired of watching new england every year. Like sick of like fucking lee evans dropping a catch in the corner of the end zone, that they go to the super, like the breaks, that this guy got the tuck rule, so on and so forth. Like absurd. But yes, brady, he's a legend. It's a little bit easier, though, to like to build a team around a guy who's willing to take a pay cut because his wife is actually worth like 10 times more than him. At the time Guy didn't have to worry about it, but yes, his girlfriend is a. 

37:10
Veronica. 

37:11 - Zack Phillips (Other)
His new girlfriend. 

37:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yeah, okay, how about this? You guys are not factoring this Braun. Everyone hates him. All everyone is so much hate, all right. How about this Braun? Not a single scandal Been in the limelight since, like whatever 14 years old, when he was just getting into high school ball. Not a single scandal, except for people said he was racist because he did. Taco. 

37:37 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tuesday at one time. 

37:38 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But other than that, though, that was no, no other than that, which is obviously whatever other than that he's never actually had a scandal like no same, whatever. Same girl, same wife, good family, two kids, whatever. I don't know the guy personally I'm saying, well, this is what is in the media, this was in the media. Nothing, no scandals, no off the field incidents, no stupid suspensions, no crime, no, nothing. And what does he get job for? Like, oh, he's a baby, he's a cry baby on the thing, there's literally players you have to get. Michael jordan had to step away from the game from for whatever. Alleged gambling addiction and alleged alleged all this stuff. 

38:10
He just step away and go play baseball. Braun is the goat man. That guy's been in the limelight for that many years still playing well now to also survive that much. 

38:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Okay, nba at this day now is crazy I will also say that the the players antics are open to interpretation. So it depends on how that player is viewed in market, like the popularity of that player and whatever, because there are lots of times where people will do exactly what lebron james did there and it will be celebrated as like this guy cares about that. 

38:43
He wants to put the much he wants to win, exactly like he's a competitor. Like michael jordan was a baby as well, like that, okay, michael jordan was a complainer. This was long before, long before, like the new new day of nba, where they complained on they complain on every foul call, like someone's going to the ref. Like it's a different game now than it was 20 years ago, 30 years ago, when I was growing up. Like people would literally try to kill people under the basket. Like like I'm talking jack. Like look at the pistons in. Like they would literally you. They would talk before the game of like someone comes into the paint, like you're gonna fuck them up, like you're gonna come in into the paint again. Like these are the type of things that we they dealt with back in the day. So it's a different game. But, like jordan, he was a complainer. Like if he didn't get a foul call he would complain about it. 

39:36
Yeah, but and they would just call fouls that's on jordan, like that was the game is also different now. 

39:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
like lebron survived like almost three different eras of different games, like when he started it was a different game. He, whatever that guy's, he's just still doing it today is the main factor I get, plus no scandals, all the stuff. Yeah, okay, sure he, he, he's a bad teammate because he, because he, like, uh, you know, went at j JR Smith when he didn't shoot it. Yeah, no shit, low GM, when they were on the Cavs, dude, they had a win there. Jr Smith just held it. He thought they were winning. He was trying to hold for a foul, went to OT. They ended up losing to Golden State. 

40:14
Yeah of course they're going to be mad. It is what it is Not a bad teammate for yelling at his teammate that made a bad play. 

40:20 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Absolutely. I do want to get back on track. We still have a few more things to cover here Timing of bets. When to bet for the Super Bowl Overs, early unders, late Agree. 

40:35 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It used to be a little more pronounced later. Now not as much, but for the most part, um, yes, for the most part. Yeah, like as a general rule of thumb I would. 

40:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So I agree with you. It's not as it once was where it's like that. It is a like. You have to do it obviously, especially now with the emergence of so many different sports books and the ability to line shop. You might find like an off market under that. I would still hit now rather than just waiting until game time. They're few and far between, but just so that people are aware, you obviously probably know this but there's a shit ton of handle on the Super Bowl betting handle. Sportsbooks take a lot of money. Shit ton of handle on the Superbowl betting handle. Sportsbooks take a lot of money. 

41:22
There's a lot of people who never bet over the course of the year who are going to bet the Superbowl. Do you think that the average person is coming in to make their first bet and fire it under? It ain't happening. Most people are coming in here looking for over on Travis Kelsey yards. You know anytime touchdown score yes, so on and so forth. So know any time touchdown score yes, so on and so forth. So when you have more handle and it's more of it's being geared towards the over, sportsbooks have to adjust their number because of the liability. That's why overs early, unders late, is a good general rule of thumb Novelty props. You can bet a lot of them. Coin toss Gatorade color anthem time. 

42:05 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
How many times will whoever be shown on the screen not to bet? 

42:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
the coin toss. Yeah, absolutely tell them out there. Yeah, I mean like again, you have to you have to know. 

42:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't even know if this is like legal, that's why I'm saying it but but like, okay, don't you have a buddy that wants to bet tails and if you're going to bet 10 bucks on heads, you can't. You don't have a buddy Like you got to place it in your sports book at minus one 10 at the Superbowl party. Like I mean, don't do that, cause you shouldn't be betting crossing with friends, whatever it is. 

42:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But like you line shop the coin toss because you also line shop. 

42:45
There is going to be a sports book, at least one that will offer plus 100 on both sides, which is not a bet that you're expected to win in the long run. It's a 0% EV. But you're not going to get better than that. 50, 50 chance of the coin. And, by the way, don't get into the conspiracies of like one side of the coin is weighted this much and the other like there's a chance, there's a chance. Oh sure, there is a chance. You know, some people look at like the historical flips of the ref. I mean I don't know what to tell. 

43:16 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't know what to tell you, but oh, we forgot about the best angle. Did you see his ref in the super bowl? 

43:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
carl jefferson. Unfortunately the bills aren't involved, or else it would have been a lock if the bills were there. 

43:27
Oh man, I mean, I guess you want to explain what that was yeah, carl cheffers, there's a conspiracy theory going around, started by uh warren sharp uh, who I don't respect at all. Uh basically took a very small sample size of bills games and said uh, you know, in games that carl's cheffers have reffed over the course of the last five years arbitrary sample size, they were like eight and one conveniently left out the fact that the Bills over the last five years have an absurdly good record and that this could just be chalked up to random variance and thought it was absurd that Carl Cheffers was going to reff the Bengals and Bills playoff game this year and that the fix was in, so to speak. Obviously it wasn't. The Bengals won the game. The game was officiated very evenly. I mean, if anything, you can argue that it was in favor of the Bengals with some of the calls that were made. So that's what it's in reference to. Just don't fall trap to like that type of BS. 

44:25
A lot of this stuff is easily explainable. Not everything has to be a conspiracy or something that's orchestrated by the NFL to get the game that they want. Guess what People are going to watch the Super Bowl. People watched the Rams and Bengals last year. Wasn't the most exciting game? Probably not the Super Bowl. I'm sure the NFL would have much rather had Chiefs 49ers in the Super Bowl last year, who both lost in the conference championships. They got Rams-Bengals. People watched. It Turned out to be a close game, entertaining, like please, please. 

44:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
So we're going to see, obviously, on these novelty props, rob, I think. Well, you wanted to mention one point. 

45:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I see this with my group of friends every year. Right, gonna get together before the super bowl, an hour before. They're gonna look through the gatorade color first song at halftime and they're gonna be like, oh, first song at halftime. And they're gonna look up like setlistfm. They're gonna be like, oh, who's's the halftime show this year? Rihanna, rihanna, oh, rihanna always leads with this song, whatever it's a lock Plus 500. 

45:31
Like, once the market moves to the first song of the half being like minus 1,000 for one of the songs, there's a pretty solid chance that there's some info that's out there of what the first song of the half is going to be. It's the same thing with the anthem time. Right, get together with my friend. Like I've mentioned this on the show before. But, like around the Super Bowl, lots of information leaks. People in the sharp betting community are texting each other what they've heard, what's going to happen, so on and so forth, and I get a text every year with someone who thinks that they know what the anthem time is gonna be. That ends up being pretty close to the actual anthem time. I'll literally tell my friends what I and they still think that they have an edge by looking at past anthems on YouTube and watching and timing, it's like, no, you don't. You do not have an edge doing this, so don't bet into the market that's moved to minus 1,000 because of insider information like what color the Gatorade is going to be and whatever. There isn't an edge there an hour before the Super Bowl. So the advantage in those markets is getting the information beforehand and betting it beforehand and then the market is going to correct just like any other sports betting market and there's no longer an edge. But don't be that guy who's like oh yeah, like I'm looking at. I'm looking at the Prince set list and this is what he was red hot chili peppers. This is their set list. It doesn't matter. This is a Superbowl. It's a different event. They're not playing. They're not playing a two hour show to their crowd where they're trying to stagger songs in a certain way. They also don't play the full song exactly like it's. It's completely like it's. It's all orchestrated people. They rehearse this, they there's people out there that know what the first song is. So just their novelty props. I get that. They're fun and also tangent here. 

47:21
If you're in one of those pools where you're filling out props, like with all your buddies, right, office pools, office pools or whatever. Look at the odds of the outcomes. I cannot believe how many people do not do this. Like, just go to the sports book. If you got to pick Gatorade color on the sheet and there's a minus 750 on the Gatorade color, that's probably your Gatorade color. That's your guy color, that's probably your Gatorade color. That's your guy, that's your one, that's the one you're picking. Like I can't you know. It always ceases to amaze me how much, how many times people just don't do that like. 

47:56
I'm not saying you have to use the odds for every single thing that you pick. You might have an opinion on the game and you might take something that's like plus 100 on your odd sheet but minus 1000. Like will there be a safety in the game? Who's the if? If it's they're both if yes and no are worth the same amount of points. Why would you ever mark yes on your sheet? Why you wouldn't? You should, so that that's absolutely not novelty props. Um, in in circles off episode one, you talked a little bit about cross-sport props and there being an edge there. That was the Super Bowl of Kansas City, tampa Bay. I did very well on cross-sport props that year. I did well on cross-sport props last year. I think this is one of the higher edges on props in the entire market. Okay. 

48:44 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Why is? 

48:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
that? Because you can just hawk injury, you can hawk news for the other market. Okay, why is that? Because you can just hawk injury, you can hawk news for the other sports. There are so many cross-sport props. There's stuff that's tied to NHL shots on goal now, nba player minutes, points and whatever. 

49:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It's like a NASCAR time, whatever, I forget what it was Right. 

49:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So for people who don't know what I'm referring to, you might have a prop that's like. I'll just use an example LeBron James points scored in the game versus Patrick Mahomes rushing yards or something like that right. And what happens is and anyone who follows the NBA or the NHL or whatever else is going on now college basketball guess what happens in those sports every day Tons of injury news. This player's not playing, resting injured, up and down in the lineup going to get more minutes. What's the market that most people are going to bet on? That player news, the main market of the game. Everyone rushes to bet that. These cross-sport props. They stay on the board whenever news happens Like. You have time to get down on them. 

49:59
So on Super Bowl Sunday, you want to waste some time during the day. I think that's a pretty good return on investment, one of the best that you can have, because I was lucky enough back in the day to be in the trading room for a very prominent offshore sports book and witnessed the Super Bowl operation happen. Now this is one big sports book. It's not to say that every other sports book on the planet operates in the same way, but there are so many markets that they are offering on these games. It is so hard to automate it and keep up in real time. There's going to be stuff that lags and there's not a ton of people who are betting the cross-sport stuff. So personally you alerted me to. I always knew they existed but I never bet bet them. 

50:50 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
But I can say that I learned something from circles off episode one from you that's made them hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars, for rob as well. I appreciate that, um, that you're giving me credit for calling that out. Yeah, that's one that you could definitely look around for. Um, as the years pass, there's just even more and more options, which is even better for that one, you know, contrary to some other ones where you actually kind of get less and less options. So for that one, you're good. Um, it does require a little bit of like trickiness in terms of pricing them out, which is something that I think you know. I'll leave that to everyone to figure out how to do, but for the most part, um, it's a lot easier than just pricing out the single prop, because you can potentially have an edge on both sides, and then there you go, bam bam can I get your thoughts on um on middling or arbing super bowl props? 

51:43
um, yeah, so like this is a lot of people like to hit a middle, what that is. You might hit Mahomes over 22.5 rush yards, under 23.5 rush yards. Try to land it on 23. You win both your bets. If not, you lose the juice. 

51:57
So I'm not much of a middler or an arbor. I personally wouldn't really do that. A couple reasons why is there's just not enough money overall in doing that Right? So like, let's say you're arguing, you find like a plus 100 on one side and like a plus 105 on the other side With the Super Bowl props. Like you're not really able to get that much money down on that. So what ends up happening is you know you'll make a couple bucks on that. 

52:24
You know, on average you can make like $2.50 cents profit on that, probably gonna bet a hundred dollars on each, for example. Maybe you could get a thousand dollars on each, might get you twenty five dollars and, uh, you know synthetic profit. But is that really enough for what you want to do? Um, if it is, then yeah, go ahead and, like you, you could definitely lock in across all the sites. You know maybe100, a couple hundred bucks in profits by Arbing, but for me personally there's only so many plays you can put in on one site. There's only so much money you might have in that one sports play account. So I like to put it all on good value plays. I don't like to put it on the same play. 

52:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I think it depends a lot on the risk appetite of the person. Me and you are more on the risky side than the conservative side, so I can understand the allure for some people of just wanting to guarantee themselves money, and there's nothing wrong with that. To each their own. The issue I see is that in a lot of these instances, pinnacle will not limit you on this stuff One of the advantages of betting at Pinnacle this is why I highly recommend them. In Ontario, you want one side on Pinnacle and ARB the other side on another sportsbook. Go for it. Pinnacle's going to be completely fine. It'll never be an issue. The other sportsbook, if it's a more recreational book, is very likely going to limit you. They're very likely going to look at the price history and say, oh, this was an arb at the time mark this person's account. It's tougher to keep accounts open that way as well, like it's tough to keep accounts open in general for those who are winning. But it's just another barrier that you would have to overcome as well. 

53:58 - Zack Phillips (Other)
But I would say, though, on top of that, like, if you go, if you want to do some stuff like that, you can use something like BetStamp to find good opportunities to do so. Um, I've been, I've it's not like the primary thing that I've done, but over the past couple of weeks I've found some stuff on bet stamp that has been like actually like comical. Like there was an nba total last week. Uh, I hit the opener over 190. Uh, closed 220 come Come on which game. 

54:28
I'll find it after. It was a heat game against Bucks, I think, like two weeks ago or a week ago or something. So I obviously I hit over 190 plus 115. There you go, bro, and then closed the other side. So like things like that. 

54:40 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Did you win or lose that one? 

54:42 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Yeah, won. Both sides Landed like 210, 212. 

54:45 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Oh, you middled it. 

54:52 - Zack Phillips (Other)
You hit the middle, you went for the middle I was like this is way too big of a thing. But um, the uh. The other thing is, uh, player props. You're talking about yep, um, using the bet stamp app, use the player prop section. You can go in there and click on different players. If you're looking through, I found opportunities where I found where you can find across different books, where you that comes into play of having different books, where I found 15 to 20 yard differences on books. So it's not something that I'm doing all the time with it, but if you really want to, you can find good opportunities like that where your margin of error is way bigger. Instead of having to hit the two, three yard middle, you can hit a 15 yard middle based on where you can get it across different books. 

55:25 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Fair enough. It's going to depend on what you want to do. Like, personally, I don't do that. But also, if you're at a bet sizing where you're betting like $10 or $20 and you could lock in like a $7 profit, then you know, let's say you're betting $15 a unit, that's half a unit right there. At that point you're getting something nominal to your bankroll. That gets added and I think that there's a chance in which case that you know might be worth it for you. 

55:50
But, um, yeah, for for even just for the work it takes, like to lock in like a dollar to profit. I don't, I don't personally think that's worth it at this point, but there's ways to, you know, make money off of that as well. And then, where I, where I think it's a big value as well, is like, even if you don't, even if you're not looking just a middle or arb, you still want to hit the best price. That's where you're going to save the most money. It's like if you're placing 150 bet or even a 10 bet, and that saves over time, it's a, it's going to save you. 

56:21
Like, let's say, you say you even say 50 cents a time. That is worth it because that scales with your betting. It's 50 cents every single time you place a bet and when you bet more and more money, that's going to scale with it. You keep keep saving. If you're just looking to like scalp something or middle something in the small scale right now, like an like a super bowl prop, um, that's not really scaling, so that's not like a full-fledged way. But if it's, if it's within your bankroll and you can do it like no reason why you shouldn't like just take up the profits, I guess, and or or maybe even, like you know, bet half of it on one side that half, but the full unit on the other side, you know, improve your number and then at least keep some position I want to end on a a common belief from the sharp betting community that I don't agree with. 

57:04 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Before I a reminder to everyone out there if you do enjoy the content, we do smash that like button. Please Subscribe to the Circles Off channel. If you're listening in audio form, please rate and review five stars, and if there's something you wanna know about that we didn't cover in this episode, drop it into the comments below. We'll respond on YouTube or, if it's worthwhile, we'll actually incorporate it into a future episode where we can talk about it in full. So be sure to do that if you haven't done so already. 

57:32
In the sharp betting community around the Super Bowl I see a lot of stuff on like oh, don't get fixated on these past Super Bowl trends. You know a lot of these prices don't make a whole lot of sense. I'll get into specific examples in a second here. I don't agree with a lot of this stuff because the Super Bowl is a very different game than a regular NFL game, so people tend to use like this large data sample Of all these NFL games oh, and how many, how many of these? What percentage of NFL games? Did anyone that wasn't one of the two quarterbacks For either team Throw a pass, it's going to be a very low percentage Because teams don't break out Trick plays on a weekly basis. 

58:25
This is the final game of the year. You're playing for a championship. You're going to see stuff in the Super Bowl that is very different than if this was week five of the regular season Very, very different overall. So when people say stuff like that or use like this large data sample to prove their point and how something is not a valuable bet, I think that's absurd, honestly. Not only is this the final game of the season, the preparation is completely different. Both teams have two weeks to prepare for this game. If you don't think either team has a wrinkle ready in their offense or they're practicing some trick plays, I don't know what to tell you. That's the first part. The second is the game itself is very different. Like, look at Super Bowl scoring in the third quarter as an example. It's way higher. 

59:23 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Again, limited sample is actually the bigger break. 

59:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You have a halftime. That doesn't happen in any other game. You have like 30 to 40 minutes of a halftime performance commercials. It's completely different. Look at the first quarter scoring right. There was like the trend of all these first quarters going under. Now I don't blindly follow trends. I'm not just going to go bet the under in the first quarter of the Super Bowl this year, but maybe there's a dynamic at play here. Maybe the amount of pressure that these players are feeling in arguably the biggest game of their life contributes to a tighter first quarter of the game. I don't want to just blindly tail or dismiss this stuff, but I always Like there's. I don't want to just blindly tail or dismiss this stuff, but I always like I. I hate when people just like throw it out the window like it's nothing, like last week, last year and this is confirmation bias, by the way, I'll totally admit it but last year I believe Cooper Cup threw a pass in the game which won me a very big bet. 

01:00:24
Of what Over one and a half, pass Like two and a half players that have to pass yes which I argued for the entirety of the week with other people that I know who are very sharp about how this is a great bet. It's not anywhere close to accurately priced. I can't remember what the price was. I think I might have given it on our prop special last year. I may have on the circles off prop special maybe, but it's not just a regular game, it's not. It's very different. So that's the one thing that I vehemently disagree with a lot of people where they're just looking at this larger data sample like how can you say that? 

01:01:04 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
how can you just just package all of this nfl data together and say, oh, you know, wide receiver is only going to throw a pass on like 0.07 percent of plays, like it's, it's all irrelevant, completely different game, even like all of the stuff, like the amount of trick plays, it's more likely for an onside kick, a fake punt, a surprise onside, a fake field goal all that stuff is significantly higher likelihood because it is like that final game, what doesn't get factored as well as like two weeks to prepare so you do get time to practice. 

01:01:33
These extra trick plays, um, you're typically getting here's another thing a trick play or like a going forward on fourth down and stuff like that are plays that are, in theory, higher ev and better value for coaches and the dust. Coaches in the league don't do these and those guys aren't in the super bowl. So it's another thing that you always typically get a few good coaches in the super bowl versus people who are like never gonna, who are gonna punt it on, although the chiefs did have a pretty brutal punt, uh they did, it was yeah the chiefs have a pretty real pump, but for the most part, I think you are going to have a lot of like better teams and better coaches, which, um, also increases the success rate of a lot of these things as well. 

01:02:16
So when it's like, will there be a fourth, a completed fourth, down of more than fourth and ten, it's like okay, you look at these two teams and you're like, all right, well, mahomes is there? He, yeah. Can he complete fourth and ten? Yeah, it's in the regular season game. It's like most teams won't even go for it on fourth and ten agreed, uh, I. 

01:02:34 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I want to just backtrack because I did not give that out as my best bet last year so I don't, I don't want to tell his all a touting his record I did however, give shortest touchdown under one and a half yards, which cashed and completely screwed you. Do you remember the bet you gave last year? I gave. Matt Stafford 40 to one. 

01:02:56 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
And he got the sneak on the goal line and then he missed it and then they gave the one yarder. But honestly I consider that a moral victory for that prop. 

01:03:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, that's exactly what you're hoping for. You're just hoping for that one play. You got the sneak. 

01:03:12 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It didn't work. You know, what's crazy is like I actually the qb rushing in the super bowl is like I love that edge like the qb's over on rushing in the super bowl has in theory been great, but it's mostly for the non-rushing qb's. These guys are like hertz and mahomes, are not qb's that have like a zero yardage total. So it's going to be kind of sad today but would have loved to get like, for example, if it was I mean, I don't even really know what a good example would be but like if there's a QB who doesn't have a rushing total, like a Tom Brady, like a Matt Stafford, like those kinds of players then you're actually getting. 

01:03:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Or like a jimmy g, then you're getting value on like them hitting like a five or six yard run, which happens because again body on the line, john, exactly this is what I'm saying, though, like it's, it's the same people who are playing all these rushing yardage totals over in the first round of the playoffs for the quarterbacks. Right they were, in my opinion. They were priced like it was a regular season game. Now the market caught up to that, by the way. 

01:04:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
It always does. 

01:04:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It always does so. Like it's not just like a thing you blindly tail, but the divisional round of the playoffs or the wildcard round. The wildcard round of the playoffs, these quarterback rushing totals were just like regular season games, not inflated enough, and all these overs hit. Then you see the next week they're all adjusted up and rough and all these overs hit. Then you see the next week they're all adjusted up. And then by the time we get to this week we got like jalen hurts at 47 and a half rushing yards, like it's. It changes over time but body on the line, like it's. It sounds like a narrative and maybe it is, but like it makes logical sense, right, I'm a big believer in just applying logic. 

01:04:41
I don't like trends that are like you know this quarterback is. I don't like the trevor lawrence trend, the saturdays in his life. Well, of course, like, look at all these games he played at clemson where he's like a 28 point favorite on a saturday. Yeah, I'm playing an nfl game on a saturday and you're gonna tell me you're one of the one. Yeah, like, come on, I. 

01:05:01 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
I don't get it like the narratives to avoid, though I will say like you're gonna get a lot of stuff that ends up being like articles like these are the seven best super like. Here are the top 10 super bowl trends you need to know before placing a bet on the game, and a lot of those, for the most part, are just complete trash like. So anything that has to do with like the winner of the super bowl has like is the team that won by the most in the previous round. Like all of those are just straight trash. Like it's nothing where. But, to be fair, like to rob's point, like you don't want to throw out everything because there are some stuff that's different in the super bowl, so like there's probably there's likelihood that there's more just overall randomness in metric plays and that stuff look at packer. 

01:05:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
julian packer, the cto of bet, came in studio last year and we talked about all the picks. He gave out Cooper Cup over half a rushing yard, which in my opinion Is negative for the season. Exactly Horrible if you're betting that in the regular season. In the Super Bowl, very different. So, just Bro, the Chiefs are gonna run so many trick plays too. Andy Reid is the kind of guy that, like he definitely got all these in his back pocket. 

01:06:06 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Eagles will as well. I mean, it's going to be crazy. 

01:06:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
So in my opinion, I mean, listen, I think we're likely to see some sort of trick play, because you have Andy Reid on one side and, honestly, you have the Eagles, who have been smoking teams for the majority of the season, who really have not had to run out like that play, that they might need to change a game or swing a game or something like that. You just got to hope it's not a flea flicker if you're betting the over two and a half yeah, and then it's just the same. 

01:06:34
Yeah, because it needs to save quarterback who throws it, but I don't know. I mean, I think it's fascinating. I love betting the super bowl. I hope everyone enjoys betting the super bowl. For those who want specific props picks again, we will be doing a Super Bowl props episode this year. It's going to be on the Forward Progress YouTube channel. The link is in the description below or you can find it yourself Forward Progress HQ if you search it in the YouTube search bar. Three hour live episode. It's going to be good. 12 pm Eastern time next wednesday. 

01:07:07 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
People just hopping in and out giving their favorite prop bet for the super bowl and to be honest, for for the most part, I mean, we did have a profitable last I think we finished up six units roughly in that range, we went up six units. It's obviously randomness because the lay it with. 

01:07:23
Luke was in here and he picked jesse bates plus listen, no guarantees that, um, that we're going to be up this year or anything like that, but what we can guarantee is that we're going to give you like it'll be anytime that we give out something, whoever is giving out the pick, we'll try to ask questions and it's not just going to be one of those like oh, they need to get Travis Kelsey involved in the offense if they have a chance to win, and they need to get Travis Kelsey involved in the offense if they have a chance to win. 

01:07:48
And whenever Travis Kelsey gets two touchdowns, chiefs wins, they're going to try to get him two touchdowns. That's not the analysis. We're going to give you no real use in going back and watching last year's show, but a lot of times we gave out specific angles and stuff that we might have thought of that some hit, some didn't hit, but for the most part were pretty good value and good for the listener. So if you do even want to go back it's like a four hour episode you will probably, if you're a real keener, you will pick up a couple tidbits of stuff that someone said last year that you might be able to use for this year. 

01:08:17 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And listen. If you can tune in live, tune in live. I cannot promise that the the market will not move while this is happening. Oh, you got to tune in live. 

01:08:26 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Tune in live, if you can. What time? Exactly 12 pm. 

01:08:29 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Eastern time Wednesday of next week. 

01:08:32 - Zack Phillips (Other)
Three hour episode. You know it? Yeah, I do know the date. 

01:08:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Wednesday February 8th. Wednesday February 8th, 12 pm Eastern time. Tune in live if you can. So we're starting it at 12. 

01:08:47 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
Yes, live if you can, so we're starting it at 12. 

01:08:48 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes, now, if you can't, I'm gonna have to get a near the end slot. Yeah, that's no problem, no worries, but you're, you're, I'm in a different time. You almost gave a 40 to 1 winner last week, last year how do we not lose? How do we not get you in in one of the prime? 

01:08:57 - Johnny Capo (Co-host)
time I gave out a winner on all the other shows I was on which was on like four shows you went, you went for. 

01:09:02 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I appreciate that you went for, like the glory pick and and I probably will go for another glory yeah this year it wasn't like a stinkery do pick, like you know, churn off, going for the glory and showing up here with, like cam acres, alternate rushing, yardage totals or whatever big churn you mean. Big churn, churn, baby churn. He may be joining us find out next week. Uh, 12 pm eastern time on the forward progress channel. Thank you very much for listening to circles off episode number 87, powered by pinnacle sportsbook. If you're in ontario, be sure to check out pinnacle for this super bowl week. I cannot recommend that enough and everyone out there a reminder have fun, it's the super bowl, but please bet responsibly. We'll see you next week.