What is a Totals (Over/Under) Bet?
A totals bet, also known as an over/under bet, is a popular wager in sports betting where you predict whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a specified number. This type of bet is available across various sports, where over/under trends and stats are closely monitored by bettors.
Unlike point spread bets, totals wagers focus solely on the cumulative score, regardless of which team wins. Understanding totals bets is crucial for developing betting strategies, especially when considering futures win totals or analyzing over/under records.
Totals Betting Across Different Sports
Totals betting isn’t limited to just basketball—you’ll find over/under wagers available across nearly every major sport. The concept remains the same, but there are a few unique twists depending on the league or event.
- NBA & College Basketball: Here, you’re betting on the combined final score of both teams.
- NFL & College Football: The total reflects the sum of points scored by both sides at the end of the game.
- MLB: You can wager on the total runs scored; for example, if the line is 8.5, you predict whether the two teams together will score more or fewer than 8.5 runs.
- NHL: Totals bets are usually set around the 5.5-goal mark, letting you pick whether fewer or more goals will be scored across the full game.
There are even totals bets in sports like boxing or UFC, though instead of points or runs, you’re betting on the number of rounds completed in a match.
Most major sportsbooks—such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars—offer totals wagers for each of these sports, making them easy to find no matter your game of choice.
Special Totals: Grand Salami in the NHL
Some sports offer special types of totals bets. In the NHL, for example, you can play the "Grand Salami," which lets you bet on the total number of goals scored across all games played on a single day. If there are two games, and the Grand Salami line is set at 11, you decide whether the combined goal tally from every matchup will fall above or below that mark.
Unlike point spread bets, totals wagers focus solely on the cumulative score, regardless of which team wins. Understanding totals bets is crucial for developing betting strategies, especially when considering futures win totals or analyzing over/under records.
Let’s use the following example:
The total for the Warriors vs. Lakers game is listed at 213. This means you can bet on whether you think the total score will be over 213 points or under 213 points.
- If the Lakers win 110 to 101 (a total of 211 points) the game went under.
- If the Lakers win 115 to 101 (a total of 216 points) the game went over.
- A push would occur if the final score totalled exactly 213 points.
This is one of the most popular bet types, along with point spread betting, moneyline betting, and prop betting.
How Have Average Totals Changed Over Time?
Average totals in sports—especially the NBA—have shifted quite a bit over recent years. For example, it wasn’t long ago that seeing NBA game totals posted in the high 180s was a regular occurrence. Thanks to the rise of small-ball lineups and an explosion in three-point shooting, the league has seen scoring jump steadily.
Take the NBA: In the 2016-17 season, average game totals hovered just above 210 points. Fast forward to more recent seasons and that number has climbed by nearly 10 points, with most games featuring totals well above 220. The underlying reason for this increase? Faster pace of play, rule changes favoring offense, and evolving team strategies have all nudged scoring—and, as a result, totals—upward.
This evolution isn’t unique to basketball. Other sports also see shifts in totals as offensive trends, rule tweaks, and pace of play develop year to year. Keeping tabs on these trends is essential for over/under bettors who want to stay ahead of the curve.
Average Totals Across Major U.S. Sports Leagues
So, what do typical totals look like across the most popular sports? Here’s a quick rundown of average over/under numbers from recent seasons:
- NFL: Around 45 points per game
- NBA: Roughly 222 points per game
- NHL: About 6 goals per game
- MLB: Typically 9 runs per contest
- NCAAF: Approximately 55 points per matchup
- NCAAB: Close to 140 points per game
It’s worth noting that these numbers can shift over time. Factors like rule changes and evolving team strategies can have a big impact. For instance, not too long ago, NBA games with totals in the 180s were common. But thanks to the rise of small-ball lineups and a focus on three-point shooting, recent NBA totals often land well above 210—almost a ten-point jump compared to just a few seasons ago.
Keeping track of these trends can give you an edge, whether you’re digging into futures or sizing up this week’s matchups.
How is the Total Determined?
The total for each sport may vary on individual factors. Computer models will generally weigh the following factors and then determine an expected total:
- Offensive efficiency
- Defensive efficiency
- Weather
- Pace of play
- Aggressiveness
- Game location (some stadiums may yield different advantages - especially in baseball)
Once the number is set, the betting market will dictate if the total moves up, down, or stays the same.
How Do Sportsbooks Decide Which Side Is Favored?
While it's common for the odds on both the over and under to pay out similarly, there are times when one side becomes the clear favorite. This isn't arbitrary—instead, sportsbooks look at the matchup details that could tip the scales.
If two teams are known for explosive offenses and less-than-stellar defenses—think of those high-octane showdowns in the NBA or baseball games at Coors Field—the "over" might attract more action and be given shorter odds. In contrast, battles between teams with methodical offenses and lockdown defenses tend to favor the "under," especially if recent games have been low scoring.
The key point: oddsmakers adjust the odds to reflect where they think most bettors will lean based on team tendencies, recent performances, and even public perception. It's a subtle nudge to keep the book balanced rather than letting all the wagers pile up on one side.
What About the Grand Salami in the NHL?
For NHL fans, there’s a unique twist called the “Grand Salami.” This special wager lets you bet on the combined total goals scored across every NHL game on a given night. Here’s how the total is usually set:
- The typical total for an NHL game is often 5.5 goals.
- To set the Grand Salami, oddsmakers take that standard number (5.5) and multiply it by the number of games on the schedule.
- For example, if there are 6 games, the Grand Salami line would start around 33 goals (5.5 x 6).
As with other totals, the actual number can move based on betting activity and unique factors (like hot goaltenders or weak defenses across the board), so the final line might drift a bit before puck drop.
Historical Win Rates for Over/Under Bets Across Sports
If you’re scoping out trends before making your next pick, it helps to know how the over/under has actually played out in different leagues. Looking back to the start of the 2016 regular seasons, here’s what the numbers show:
- NFL: Betting the under has won just over half the time (about 52%).
- NBA: It’s a true coin flip, with overs and unders splitting the results almost perfectly, each landing around 50%.
- NHL: The under comes through slightly more often, winning in about 50% of cases.
- MLB: Again, the under edges out by a slim margin, claiming victory just over 50% of the time.
- NCAAF and NCAAB: Both college football and basketball also show a minor lean towards the under, hitting close to 51%.
No matter the sport, it’s clear that bookmakers set their lines to be exceptionally tight, and any “edge” is razor thin—which is why research, strategy, and timing matter as much as the teams on the field.
Are Overs or Unders More Profitable in the Long Run?
If you’re wondering whether to ride with the “over” or take your chances on the “under,” here’s the honest picture: neither side offers a clear path to riches.
While it may seem like a sound strategy to pick just one side—especially since data from major leagues like the NFL, NBA, and MLB shows that unders have hit slightly more often over the last several years—the difference is marginal. The reason? The sportsbook “vig” (that small commission they collect) essentially cancels out any small advantage. So, even if unders sneak out a tiny edge statistically, it’s not nearly enough to turn a consistent profit after factoring in the bookmaker’s cut.
What often nudges bettors toward overs is psychology—cheering for more points and action just feels natural. As a result, oddsmakers may set totals a bit higher to match public sentiment, but any extra value is slim and often quickly corrected by sharp bettors moving the market.
Bottom line: instead of sticking religiously to overs or unders, focus on finding value where the line may have shifted for factors the model or market hasn’t fully absorbed—like late lineup changes, unexpected weather, or quirks at a specific stadium. That’s where a smart bettor finds opportunities, rather than just choosing one side and hoping for the best.
What Happens if a Game Goes to Overtime?
When it comes to sports betting, many wonder: does overtime count in sports betting? The answer is yes. Totals wagers, commonly known as over/under bets, include all points scored during overtime. This applies to both full-game and second-half total bets.
For bettors with the under, overtime can be nerve-wracking as it increases the chances of more points being scored. Conversely, those who bet the over may welcome overtime as an opportunity to reach their target.
This rule holds true across various sports, including NFL, NBA, and NHL. Understanding how overtime affects over/under bets is crucial for developing effective betting strategies. It's particularly important when considering over/under trends or over/under stats, as overtime periods can significantly impact these statistics.
Remember, in sports betting, every point counts – even those scored in extra time.
Are There Over/Under Markets That Exclude Overtime?
Yes—certain over/under wagers do not count overtime points. Bets placed on first half totals, quarter totals, or similar "partial game" markets only include scoring during the specified period of regulation play.
For example, if you bet on the first half total in an NBA game, only points scored before halftime are counted. Overtime will not be factored into your wager. The same principle applies to quarter-by-quarter totals and some player props tied exclusively to regulation.
Always read the terms for any given market on your sportsbook—regulation-only totals are typically labeled clearly, but it's best to double-check before placing a bet.
What Other Types of Totals Bets Are There?
A totals bet for the full game is the most traditional form of over/under wagering, but we can apply this style of betting to a vast amount of different bet types. These bets can include halves, quarters, team totals, or even futures such as player props and season props.
When it comes to half or quarter totals, the strategy can become even more nuanced. Think the teams will start slow? Consider betting the under for the first half. If you foresee a surge in scoring as the game progresses, betting the over on the second half might be your best move.
Generally speaking, you can bet the over-under for any specific time period of a game. This flexibility extends to individual halves, quarters, periods, etc., allowing you to tailor your bets according to your predictions. Whether you’re focusing on a particular team’s performance in the first quarter or anticipating a high-scoring fourth quarter, half and quarter totals offer a dynamic way to engage with the game.
Overs vs. Unders: Historical Trends and Betting Behavior
While many bettors are drawn to rooting for points and action—let’s face it, cheering for touchdowns and buzzer-beaters is simply more fun—the data suggests that unders have quietly been the better bet historically, at least in terms of win percentage. However, it’s not quite as simple as blindly picking the under and waiting for your riches.
Here’s a look at how over/under results have played out across major sports since the start of the 2016 regular seasons (overs-unders-pushes):
Sport O/U Record Under Win % NFL 619-666-11 51.8% NBA 3213-3215-74 50.01% NHL 2959-3009-355 50.4% MLB 4985-5130-486 50.7% NCAAF 1807-1941-51 51.8% NCAAB 9318-9333-235 50.1% This slight edge for the under is largely due to bettor psychology: most people would rather hope for exciting offensive play than root for missed shots or stalled drives. As a result, bookmakers tend to shade totals a little high. Still, the edge isn’t large enough to guarantee long-term winnings after accounting for the sportsbook’s cut, so smart bettors always do their homework.
And remember, when you bet the over, your wager is never technically out of the running until the final whistle—there’s always the chance for overtime or a last-minute scoring spree to push you over the total. With the under, you can sometimes cash your bet early, but you'll be sweating out every point the rest of the way.
By understanding the variety of totals bets and keeping these trends in mind, you can make more informed decisions and maybe even find your own edge.
Can Totals Betting Apply to Rounds in Boxing or UFC?
Absolutely—totals betting isn’t limited to just the major team sports. In combat sports like boxing or UFC, the concept is just as straightforward, but with a twist: instead of points, you’re betting on the total number of rounds the fight will last.
For example, oddsmakers might set the over/under line at 7.5 rounds for a championship bout. If you think the bout will end early, you’d bet the under; if you expect a long, tactical battle, you’d take the over. This same principle can apply to UFC matches, where you wager on whether a fight will be finished before or after a certain round threshold.
This form of totals betting is yet another way to leverage your knowledge of fighters’ tendencies—whether they’re notorious for early knockouts or for drawing things out to the judges’ scorecards. It’s just another creative way to get involved in the action, no matter which sport you’re watching.
What Is the “Grand Salami” in NHL Betting?
For those looking to add even more excitement to an NHL slate, the “Grand Salami” offers a unique twist on totals betting. Instead of wagering on a single matchup, the Grand Salami lets you bet on the combined number of goals scored across all NHL games scheduled on a particular night.
Here’s how it works: sportsbooks will set a total by multiplying the average over/under for NHL games—often 5.5 goals—by the number of games on the schedule. So, if there are two games, you might see the Grand Salami line set at 11. From there, you simply decide whether you think the cumulative goal total from every game that night will go over or under that number.
Let’s look at an example:
- Pittsburgh faces New York and Vancouver faces Edmonton.
- If Pittsburgh vs. New York ends 3-1 and Vancouver vs. Edmonton finishes 4-1, that’s 9 total goals—under the Grand Salami line of 11.
- If the games finish 6-5 and 4-2, that’s 17 total goals—well over the Grand Salami.
This type of wager adds another layer of fun, allowing you to follow the action across the entire league instead of focusing on a single matchup. The Grand Salami is popular with fans who want to keep every goal from every game meaningful throughout the night.
Can I Bet on How Many Points a Team Will Score?
Yes, this is also a very common type of totals bet, known as a “team total”. Here is an example of a team total:
Based on the above example, you have the option of betting the Lakers over or under 109 points, and the Warriors over or under 114 points.
Keep in mind, that when betting on a team total, the opponent’s score is irrelevant. Also worth noting is the greater-than-average juice. Most total plays are offered at -110 on each side; however, when placing a wager on a team total, it is common for the sportsbook to increase this price to -115 or -120.
Understanding the Impact of Pricing on Payouts
The amount of money you will receive on an over-under bet depends on the accepted odds and the amount of money you choose to wager. While the line for the actual over-under is one thing (e.g., Over 43 points), it's crucial to pay attention to the actual pricing of the bet, which dictates the potential payout.
For example, if the over is offered at -110, it means for every $110 you wager, a win would return $100 in profit. If you bet smaller, an $11 wager would return $10 in profit, or a $1.10 wager would yield a $1 profit, etc.
When considering team totals, the increased juice means a higher cost for the same potential return. For instance, a -115 line requires a $115 wager to win $100, reflecting the sportsbook's adjustment for perceived risk or demand.
By understanding these pricing nuances, you can make more informed decisions and weigh the potential returns against the cost of your wager.
Understanding Live Betting with Over-Under Bets
Live Betting Explained: Live betting, also known as in-play betting, allows you to place bets on a sporting event while it's happening. This dynamic form of wagering enhances the excitement as you can adjust your bets based on the game's progression.
Real-Time Updates: As the game unfolds, sportsbooks continuously adjust the over-under line to reflect the current state of play. These changes consider factors such as the score, remaining time, and key events like injuries or weather conditions. This constant fluctuation provides bettors with fresh opportunities to reassess their predictions and place new bets at updated odds.
Here's how it works step-by-step:
- Game Starts: Initially, sportsbooks will offer an over-under line based on pre-game analysis.
- Game Progresses: As events unfold—like a surge in scoring or a defensive shutdown—sportsbooks adjust the over-under line.
- In-Game Decisions: You can monitor these adjustments and decide whether to bet on the over or the under based on the new lines.
- Final Bets: Place your bets strategically as the game continues, leveraging insights gained from watching the live action.
By staying engaged and ready to act, live betting on over-under lines can be a way to find an edge when betting the over/under.
When Totals and Futures Collide
Bettors who love to make wagers on season-long props also have many total options. From team regular season wins to individual player stats such as total catches, yards, touchdowns, home runs, and so on…
Futures Betting: This type of betting is particularly popular for sports fans who enjoy making predictions over the long haul. Future totals are essentially season-long over/under where you can bet on outcomes like whether a team will exceed or fall short of projected win totals. These projections are typically released before the season begins, allowing bettors to evaluate and decide on which teams might outperform or underperform expectations.
For those who enjoy digging into stats and making informed bets, futures provide an exciting opportunity to leverage insights and predictions over an entire season. Whether you're focusing on team performance or individual achievements, futures add a layer of strategy and anticipation to the betting experience.
The following is a team regular season win prop from the 2020-21 NFL season:
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